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Application of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin in the southeastern United States

A hydrologic model of the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint River Basin (ACFB) has been developed as part of a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center effort to provide integrated science that helps resource managers understand the effect of climate change on a range of ecosystem responses. The hydrologic model was developed as part of the Southeast Regional Assessment Project using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a deterministic, distributed-parameter, process-based system that simulates the effects of precipitation, temperature, and land use on basin hydrology. The ACFB PRMS model simulates streamflow throughout the approximately 50,700 square-kilometer basin on a daily time step for the period 1950–99 using gridded climate forcings of air temperature and precipitation, and parameters derived from spatial data layers of altitude, land cover, soils, surficial geology, depression storage (small water bodies), and data from 56 USGS streamgages. Measured streamflow data from 35 of the 56 USGS streamgages were used to calibrate and evaluate simulated basin streamflow; the remaining gage locations were used for model delineation only. The model matched measured daily streamflow at 31 of the 35 calibration gages with Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency Index (NS) greater than 0.6. Streamflow data for some calibration gages were augmented for regulation and water use effects to represent more natural flow volumes. Time-static parameters describing land cover limited the ability of the simulation to match historical runoff in the more developed subbasins. Overall, the PRMS simulation of the ACFB provides a good representation of basin hydrology on annual and monthly time steps. Calibration subbasins were analyzed by separating the 35 subbasins into five classes based on physiography, land use, and stream type (tributary or mainstem). The lowest NS values were rarely below 0.6, whereas the median NS for all five classes was within 0.74 to 0.96 for annual mean streamflow, 0.89 to 0.98 for mean monthly streamflow, and 0.82 to 0.98 for monthly mean streamflow. The median bias for all five classes was within –4.3 to 0.8 percent for annual mean streamflow, –6.3 to 0.5 percent for mean monthly streamflow, and –9.3 to 1.3 percent for monthly mean streamflow. The NS results combined with the percent bias results indicated a good to very good streamflow volume simulation for all subbasins. This simulation of the ACFB provides a foundation for future modeling and interpretive studies. Streamflow and other components of the hydrologic cycle simulated by PRMS can be used to inform other types of simulations; water-temperature, hydrodynamic, and ecosystem-dynamics simulations are three examples. In addition, possible future hydrologic conditions could be studied using this model in combination with land cover projections and downscaled general circulation model results.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia↗

Status and threats analysis for the Florida manatee ( Trichechus manatus latirostris ), 2016

Trichechus manatus (West Indian manatee), especially T. m. latirostris , the Florida subspecies, has been the focus of conservation efforts and extensive research since its listing under the Endangered Species Act of 1973. To determine the status of, and severity of threats to, the Florida manatee, a comprehensive revision and update of the manatee Core Biological Model was completed and used to perform a population viability analysis for the Florida manatee. The probability of the Florida manatee population falling below 500 adults on either the Gulf or East coast within the next 100 years was estimated to be 0.42 percent. This risk of quasi-extinction is low because the estimated adult survival rates are high, the current population size is greater than 2,500 on each coast, and the estimated carrying capacity for manatees is much larger than the current abundance estimates in all four regions of Florida. Three threats contribute in roughly equal measures to the risk of quasi-extinction: watercraft-related mortality, red-tide mortality, and loss of warm-water habitat. Only an increase in watercraft-related mortality has the potential to substantially increase the risk of quasi-extinction at the statewide or coastal level. Expected losses of warm-water habitat are likely to cause a major change in the distribution of the population from the regions where manatees rely heavily on power plant effluents for warmth in winter (Southwest and Atlantic regions) to the regions where manatees primarily use natural springs in winter (Northwest and Upper St. Johns regions). The chances are nearly 50 percent that manatee populations in the Southwest and Atlantic regions will decrease from their 2011 levels by at least 30 percent over the next century. A large number of scenarios were examined to explore the possible effects of potential emerging threats, and in most of them, the risk of quasi-extinction at the coastal scale within 100 years did not rise above 1 percent. The four exceptions are scenarios in which the rate of watercraft-related mortality increases, carrying capacity is only a fraction of the current estimates, a new chronic source of mortality emerges, or multiple threats emerge in concert. Even in these scenarios, however, the risk of falling below 500 adults on either the East coast or the Gulf coast within 100 years from 2011 is less than 10 percent. High adult survival provides the population with strong resilience to a variety of current and future threats. On the basis of these analyses, we conclude that if these threats continue to be managed effectively, manatees are likely to persist on both coasts of Florida and remain an integral part of the coastal Florida ecosystem through the 21st century. If vigilance in management is reduced, however, the scenarios in which manatees could face risk of decline become more likely.

Florida↗

Suspended sediment, turbidity, and stream water temperature in the Sauk River Basin, western Washington, water years 2012-16

The Sauk River is a federally designated Wild and Scenic River that drains a relatively undisturbed landscape along the western slope of the North Cascade Mountain Range, Washington, which includes the glaciated volcano, Glacier Peak. Naturally high sediment loads characteristic of basins draining volcanoes like Glacier Peak make the Sauk River a dominant contributor of sediment to the downstream main stem river, the Skagit River. Additionally, the Sauk River serves as important spawning and rearing habitat for several salmonid species in the greater Skagit River system. Because of the importance of sediment to morphology, flow-conveyance, and ecosystem condition, there is interest in understanding the magnitude and timing of suspended sediment and turbidity from the Sauk River system and its principal tributaries, the White Chuck and Suiattle Rivers, to the Skagit River. Suspended-sediment measurements, turbidity data, and water temperature data were collected at two U.S. Geological Survey streamgages in the upper and middle reaches of the Sauk River over a 4-year period extending from October 2011 to September 2015, and at a downstream location in the lower river for a 5-year period extending from October 2011 to September 2016. Over the collective 5-year study period, mean annual suspended-sediment loads at the three streamgages on the upper, middle, and lower Sauk River streamgages were 94,200 metric tons (t), 203,000 t, and 940,000 t streamgages, respectively. Fine (smaller than 0.0625 millimeter) total suspended-sediment load averaged 49 percent at the upper Sauk River streamgage, 42 percent at the middle Sauk River streamgage, and 34 percent at the lower Sauk River streamgage.

Washington↗

Assessment of natural gas pipeline construction on stream temperature and turbidity in southwestern Virginia, 2017–25

Despite the extensive natural gas pipeline network in the United States that intersects streams and other sensitive habitats, few case studies use a comparative upstream-to-downstream approach to evaluate potential short- and long-term effects of pipeline stream crossings from pre-construction through post-restoration. In 2017, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality, deployed real-time continuous stream monitoring stations upstream and downstream from six proposed Mountain Valley Pipeline stream crossings in southwestern Virginia. Water temperature and turbidity data collected at the upstream and downstream sites were compared across three periods—before stream crossing construction, during stream crossing construction, and after stream crossing construction—to determine potential influences from the pipeline stream crossing. Additionally, the monitoring network was used to notify regulators of potentially anomalous conditions throughout the entire monitoring period. The results of this study indicate that pipeline stream crossing did not affect long-term or short-term upstream-to-downstream water temperature conditions or long-term upstream-to-downstream turbidity conditions in any of the six monitored streams. Some short-term anomalously elevated turbidity conditions were observed and attributable to pipeline stream crossing; however, the magnitudes and durations were not sufficient to alter the long-term turbidity regimes of the streams in which they were observed. The application of the monitoring network as a real-time alert system successfully alerted regulators to potentially anomalous conditions.

Virginia↗

A revised logistic regression equation and an automated procedure for mapping the probability of a stream flowing perennially in Massachusetts

A revised logistic regression equation and an automated procedure were developed for mapping the probability of a stream flowing perennially in Massachusetts. The equation provides city and town conservation commissions and the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection a method for assessing whether streams are intermittent or perennial at a specific site in Massachusetts by estimating the probability of a stream flowing perennially at that site. This information could assist the environmental agencies who administer the Commonwealth of Massachusetts Rivers Protection Act of 1996, which establishes a 200-foot-wide protected riverfront area extending from the mean annual high-water line along each side of a perennial stream, with exceptions for some urban areas. The equation was developed by relating the observed intermittent or perennial status of a stream site to selected basin characteristics of naturally flowing streams (defined as having no regulation by dams, surface-water withdrawals, ground-water withdrawals, diversion, wastewater discharge, and so forth) in Massachusetts. This revised equation differs from the equation developed in a previous U.S. Geological Survey study in that it is solely based on visual observations of the intermittent or perennial status of stream sites across Massachusetts and on the evaluation of several additional basin and land-use characteristics as potential explanatory variables in the logistic regression analysis. The revised equation estimated more accurately the intermittent or perennial status of the observed stream sites than the equation from the previous study. Stream sites used in the analysis were identified as intermittent or perennial based on visual observation during low-flow periods from late July through early September 2001. The database of intermittent and perennial streams included a total of 351 naturally flowing (no regulation) sites, of which 85 were observed to be intermittent and 266 perennial. Stream sites included in the database had drainage areas that ranged from 0.04 to 10.96 square miles. Of the 66 stream sites with drainage areas greater than 2.00 square miles, 2 sites were intermittent and 64 sites were perennial. Thus, stream sites with drainage areas greater than 2.00 square miles were assumed to flow perennially, and the database used to develop the logistic regression equation included only those stream sites with drainage areas less than 2.00 square miles. The database for the equation included 285 stream sites that had drainage areas less than 2.00 square miles, of which 83 sites were intermittent and 202 sites were perennial. Results of the logistic regression analysis indicate that the probability of a stream flowing perennially at a specific site in Massachusetts can be estimated as a function of four explanatory variables: (1) drainage area (natural logarithm), (2) areal percentage of sand and gravel deposits, (3) areal percentage of forest land, and (4) region of the state (eastern region or western region). Although the equation provides an objective means of determining the probability of a stream flowing perennially at a specific site, the reliability of the equation is constrained by the data used in its development. The equation is not recommended for (1) losing stream reaches or (2) streams whose ground-water contributing areas do not coincide with their surface-water drainage areas, such as many streams draining the Southeast Coastal Region-the southern part of the South Coastal Basin, the eastern part of the Buzzards Bay Basin, and the entire area of the Cape Cod and the Islands Basins. If the equation were used on a regulated stream site, the estimated intermittent or perennial status would reflect the natural flow conditions for that site. An automated mapping procedure was developed to determine the intermittent or perennial status of stream sites along reaches throughout a basin. The procedure delineates the drainage area boundaries, determines values for the four explanatory variables, and solves the equation for estimating the probability of a stream flowing perennially at two locations on a headwater (first-order) stream reach-one near its confluence or end point and one near its headwaters or start point. The automated procedure then determines the intermittent or perennial status of the reach on the basis of the calculated probability values and a probability cutpoint (a stream is considered to flow perennially at a cutpoint of 0.56 or greater for this study) for the two locations or continues to loop upstream or downstream between locations less than and greater than the cutpoint of 0.56 to determine the transition point from an intermittent to a perennial stream. If the first-order stream reach is determined to be intermittent, the procedure moves to the next downstream reach and repeats the same process. The automated procedure then moves to the next first-order stream and repeats the process until the entire basin is mapped. A map of the intermittent and perennial stream reaches in the Shawsheen River Basin is provided on a CD-ROM that accompanies this report. The CD-ROM also contains ArcReader 9.0, a freeware product, that allows a user to zoom in and out, set a scale, pan, turn on and off map layers (such as a USGS topographic map), and print a map of the stream site with a scale bar. Maps of the intermittent and perennial stream reaches in Massachusetts will provide city and town conservation commissions and the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection with an additional method for assessing the intermittent or perennial status of stream sites.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Assessing geomorphic change along the Trinity River downstream from Lewiston Dam, California, 1980-2011

The Trinity River Restoration Program, one of the nation’s largest adaptively managed river restoration programs, requires periodic assessment to determine the effectiveness of management actions in restoring channel dynamics and habitat features. This study documents riparian and channel changes along an intensively managed 65-kilometer reach of the Trinity River in California, downstream from Lewiston Dam. The two primary periods of interest, from 1980 to 2001 and from 2001 to 2011, are separated by a shift in restoration activities mandated by the U.S. Department of the Interior December 2000 Record of Decision. The post-2001 restoration strategy increased managed-flow releases, gravel augmentation, watershed restoration, and mechanical channel rehabilitation. We assessed the nature and extent of geomorphic change and a series of ecological performance measures (channel complexity, shoreline length, and channel–floodplain connectivity) by using a series of maps digitized from available rectified orthophotography acquired during low-flow conditions in 1980, 1997, 2001, 2006, 2009, and 2011. Lateral changes in riparian and channel features were used to quantify alluvial processes, and a review of existing streamflow, sediment, and restoration records was used to assess causal mechanisms. During the study period, natural bank erosion and mechanical rehabilitation of channel margins converted riparian features to channel features and expanded the active-channel area. The primary period of bank erosion and expansion of the active channel was from 1980 to 1997. Subsequent bar accretion from 1997 to 2001, followed by slightly greater bar scour from 2001 to 2006, took place primarily in the central and lower reaches of the study area, downstream of Indian Creek. In comparison, post‑2006 bank and bar changes were spatially limited to reaches that had sufficient local transport capacity or sediment supply supported by gravel augmentation, mechanical channel rehabilitation, and tributary contributions. The highest rates of change in the areal extents of channel and riparian features were observed during the pre‑2001 period, which was longer and relatively wetter than the post-2001 period. A series of tributary floods in 1997, 1998, and 2006 increased channel complexity and floodplain connectivity. During the post-2006 period, managed-flow releases, in the absence of tributary flooding, combined with gravel augmentation and mechanical restoration, caused localized increases in sediment supply and transport capacity that led to smaller, but measurable, increases in channel complexity and floodplain connectivity in the upper river near Lewiston Dam. Extensive pre-2001 channel widening and the muted geomorphic response of channel rehabilitation sites to post-2001 managed flows highlight the need for continued monitoring and assessment of the magnitude, duration, and timing of prescriptive flows and associated geomorphic responses.

California↗

Compositional analysis of formation water geochemistry and microbiology of commercial and carbon dioxide-rich wells in the southwestern United States

Studies of naturally occurring subsurface carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) accumulations can provide useful information for potential CO 2 injection projects; however, the microbial communities and formation water geochemistry of most reservoirs are understudied. Formation water and microbial biomass were sampled at four CO 2 -rich reservoir sites: two within Bravo Dome, a commercial CO 2 field in New Mexico; one northwest of Bravo Dome in Colorado (Oakdale Field); and one southwest of Bravo Dome in New Mexico (Rafter “K” Ranch). Aside from the Rafter “K” Ranch site, minor differences were observed in the geochemistry of formation water collected from these sites compared to historical data. No organisms were significantly associated with Oakdale Field compared to the other three sites, nor were any hydrogeochemical or gas geochemical parameters (for example, CO 2 concentration) found to have significant associations with the microbial ecology of these four sites. Microorganisms from these sites were metabolically diverse and had the potential to (1) generate methane, (2) produce corrosive hydrogen sulfide (H 2 S), and (3) rapidly biofoul and (or) clog pore spaces by shifting microbial communities with changes in salinity or nutrient supply. This study demonstrates that high concentrations of CO 2 in subsurface reservoirs apparently have not imparted a distinct geochemical or microbiological signature on the associated formation waters and that the microorganisms in these reservoirs are metabolically diverse and could adapt to geochemical changes in the subsurface.

Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma↗

Evaluating the potential for near-shore bathymetry on the Majuro Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands, using Landsat 8 and WorldView-3 imagery

Satellite-derived near-shore bathymetry (SDB) is becoming an increasingly important method for assessing vulnerability to climate change and natural hazards in low-lying atolls of the northern tropical Pacific Ocean. Satellite imagery has become a cost-effective means for mapping near-shore bathymetry because ships cannot collect soundings safely while operating close to the shore. Also, green laser light detection and ranging (lidar) acquisitions are expensive in remote locations. Previous research has demonstrated that spectral band ratio-based techniques, commonly called the natural logarithm approach, may lead to more precise measurements and modeling of bathymetry because of the phenomenon that different substrates at the same depth have approximately equal ratio values. The goal of this research was to apply the band ratio technique to Landsat 8 at-sensor radiance imagery and WorldView-3 atmospherically corrected imagery in the coastal waters surrounding the Majuro Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands, to derive near-shore bathymetry that could be incorporated into a seamless topobathymetric digital elevation model of Majuro. Attenuation of light within the water column was characterized by measuring at-sensor radiance and reflectance at different depths and calculating an attenuation coefficient. Bathymetric lidar data, collected by the U.S. Naval Oceanographic Office in 2006, were used to calibrate the SDB results. The bathymetric lidar yielded a strong linear relation with water depths. The Landsat 8-derived SDB estimates derived from the blue/green band ratio exhibited a water attenuation extinction depth of 6 meters with a coefficient of determination R 2 =0.9324. Estimates derived from the coastal/red band ratio had an R 2 =0.9597. At the same extinction depth, SDB estimates derived from WorldView-3 imagery exhibited an R 2 =0.9574. Because highly dynamic coastal shorelines can be affected by erosion, wetland loss, hurricanes, sea-level rise, urban development, and population growth, consistent bathymetric data are needed to better understand sensitive coastal land/water interfaces in areas subject to coastal disasters.

Majuro Atoll↗

New U.S. Geological Survey method for the assessment of reserve growth

Reserve growth is defined as the estimated increases in quantities of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids that have the potential to be added to remaining reserves in discovered accumulations through extension, revision, improved recovery efficiency, and additions of new pools or reservoirs. A new U.S. Geological Survey method was developed to assess the reserve-growth potential of technically recoverable crude oil and natural gas to be added to reserves under proven technology currently in practice within the trend or play, or which reasonably can be extrapolated from geologically similar trends or plays. This method currently is in use to assess potential additions to reserves in discovered fields of the United States. The new approach involves (1) individual analysis of selected large accumulations that contribute most to reserve growth, and (2) conventional statistical modeling of reserve growth in remaining accumulations. This report will focus on the individual accumulation analysis. In the past, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated reserve growth by statistical methods using historical recoverable-quantity data. Those statistical methods were based on growth rates averaged by the number of years since accumulation discovery. Accumulations in mature petroleum provinces with volumetrically significant reserve growth, however, bias statistical models of the data; therefore, accumulations with significant reserve growth are best analyzed separately from those with less significant reserve growth. Large (greater than 500 million barrels) and older (with respect to year of discovery) oil accumulations increase in size at greater rates late in their development history in contrast to more recently discovered accumulations that achieve most growth early in their development history. Such differences greatly affect the statistical methods commonly used to forecast reserve growth. The individual accumulation-analysis method involves estimating the in-place petroleum quantity and its uncertainty, as well as the estimated (forecasted) recoverability and its respective uncertainty. These variables are assigned probabilistic distributions and are combined statistically to provide probabilistic estimates of ultimate recoverable quantities. Cumulative production and remaining reserves are then subtracted from the estimated ultimate recoverable quantities to provide potential reserve growth. In practice, results of the two methods are aggregated to various scales, the highest of which includes an entire country or the world total. The aggregated results are reported along with the statistically appropriate uncertainties.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Proceedings of the 9th U.S.-Japan natural resources panel for earthquake research

Introduction The UJNR Panel on Earthquake Research promotes advanced study toward a more fundamental understanding of the earthquake process and hazard estimation. The Ninth Joint meeting was extremely beneficial in furthering cooperation and deepening understanding of problems common to both the U.S. and Japan. The meeting included productive exchanges of information on approaches to systematic observation and modeling of earthquake processes. Regarding the earthquake and tsunami of March 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku, the Panel recognizes that further efforts are necessary to achieve our common goal of reducing earthquake risk through close collaboration and focused discussions at the 10th UJNR meeting. We look forward to continued cooperation on issues involving the densification of observation networks and the open exchange of data among scientific communities. We recognize the importance of making information publicly available in a timely manner. We also recognize the importance of information exchange on research policy and strategies, including the frameworks of research organizations. Areas of Cooperation –Specific areas of earthquake research where cooperative research between the U.S. and Japan may lead to significant advancement include, but are not limited to: –Probabilistic earthquake and tsunami hazard estimation, including extraordinarily large earthquakes, both in our respective countries and worldwide, incorporating knowledge of current and past behavior, and physics based computational models; –Real-time information from seismic, geodetic and strain measurements, including borehole strainmeters and seafloor observations using offshore cabled networks; –Technologies for measuring crustal deformation; –Early warning technologies for earthquakes and tsunamis; Studies of recurrence of large and extraordinary large earthquakes using paleoseismic, paleotsunami, geodetic and seismic methods; –Laboratory, theoretical and in situ studies of fault-zone processes; –Studies of episodic tremor and slow slip events using seismic, geodetic, and borehole strain measurements, and simulation techniques; –Systematic studies of earthquake predictability through rigorously evaluated scientific prediction experiments and robust databases; –Studies of near-source ground motions, geological effects and the response of engineered structures. The Panel strongly urges that the appropriate agencies in the U.S. and Japan that are represented on this panel work together with the academic sector to support and coordinate scientific work in these areas of cooperation. The Panel recognizes the importance of promoting the exchange of scientific personnel, exchange of data, and fundamental studies to advance progress in earthquake research. The U.S. and Japan should promote these exchanges throughout the world. The Panel endorses continuation of these activities.

Open-File Report↗

Evaluation of geophysical logs and aquifer-isolation tests, Phase III, August 2002 to March 2004, Crossley Farm superfund site, Hereford township, Berks County, Pennsylvania

Between August 2002 and March 2004, geophysical logging was conducted in 23 boreholes at the Crossley Farm Superfund Site, Hereford Township, Berks County, Pa., to determine the water-producing zones, water-receiving zones, zones of vertical-borehole flow, and fracture orientation where applicable. The boreholes ranged in depth from 71 to 503 ft (feet) below land surface. The geophysical logging determined the placement of well screens and packers, which allow monitoring and sampling of water-bearing zones in the fractured bedrock so the horizontal and vertical distribution of contaminated ground water migrating from known sources could be determined. Geophysical logging included collection of caliper (22 boreholes), fluid-temperature (17 boreholes), single-pointresistance (17 boreholes), natural-gamma (17 boreholes), fluidflow (18 boreholes), and acoustic-televiewer (13 boreholes) logs. Caliper and acoustic-televiewer logs were used to locate fractures, joints, and weathered zones. Inflections on fluid-temperature and single-point-resistance logs indicated possible water-bearing zones, and flowmeter measurements verified these locations. Single-point-resistance, natural-gamma, and geologist logs provided information on stratigraphy; the geologist log also provided information on the location of possible water-producing zones. Borehole geophysical logging and heatpulse flowmetering indicated active flow in 10 boreholes. Seven of the boreholes are in ground-water discharge areas and three boreholes are in ground-water recharge areas. Heatpulse flowmetering, in conjunction with the geologist logs, indicates lithologic contacts (changes in lithology from a gneiss dominated by quartz-plagioclase-feldspar mineralogy to a gneiss dominated by hornblende mineralogy) are typically fractured, permeable, and effective transmitters of water. Single-well, aquifer-isolation (packer) tests were performed on two boreholes. Packers were set at depths ranging from 210 to 465 ft below land surface to isolate water-bearing zones at discrete intervals. Placement and inflation of the packers provided information on hydraulic heads, specific capacities, the hydraulic connection between intervals, and depth-specific water-quality samples. Upon completion of borehole geophysical logging and interpretation of geophysical logs, geologist logs, drillers notes, and packer work, 13 boreholes were reconstructed such that water levels could be monitored and water samples could be collected from discrete shallow, intermediate, and deep waterbearing fractures in each borehole. Boreholes BE-1672, BE-1674, BE-1676, and BE-1677 remained open-hole for sampling purposes. Boreholes RI-2, RI-3, and RI-4 remained openhole for injection purposes. Boreholes P-1, P-2, and P-3 remained open and were converted to pumping wells.

Pennsylvania↗

Continuous and high-resolution longitudinal profiles of the water surface and riverbed elevation for 282 miles of the Colorado River from Lees Ferry to Pearce Ferry, Arizona, 2021

Longitudinal profiles of water surface and riverbed elevations capture key geomorphic characteristics that can be affected by water infrastructure and natural processes. Continuous water surface profiles of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, a river influenced by two of the largest dams in the United States, have been measured infrequently. The water surface profile was first measured in 1923, 13 years before the completion of Hoover Dam, which impounded water into western Grand Canyon, and 40 years before the completion of Glen Canyon Dam, which affected streamflow and sediment supply for all of Grand Canyon. The water surface profile was next measured in 2000, 37 years after the completion of Glen Canyon Dam, although this profile did not include the segment affected by Hoover Dam. A continuous profile of riverbed elevations has never been published. Here, we present the first complete, coupled water surface and riverbed elevation profiles, collected in 2021 during a period of steady releases from Glen Canyon Dam. The profiles were constructed from positions and elevations measured by boat-based global navigation satellite systems and from bathymetry collected by multibeam sonar. Data collected by boat were supplemented by data from a photogrammetry-derived digital surface model that was created from concurrently collected aerial images. Independent measurements made by conventional total stations referenced to a common geodetic control network were used to evaluate accuracy of all measurements. The final water surface and riverbed elevation profiles improved the accuracy and precision reported for previous profiles. In this study, the mean absolute vertical accuracy of water surface elevations was 0.07 meter for 85 percent of river miles and 0.19 meter for 11 percent of river miles. For the remaining 4 percent of river miles, water surface elevations were interpolated between measured values. The profiles reported herein can be used for current assessment of Colorado River geomorphic conditions, quantification of changes in the river over time, and predictive modeling of river resources for potential future management scenarios.quantification of changes in the river over time, and predictive modeling of river resources for potential future management scenarios.

Arizona↗

Base of principal aquifer for parts of the North Platte, South Platte, and Twin Platte Natural Resources Districts, western Nebraska

Water resources in the North and South Platte River valleys of Nebraska, including the valley of Lodgepole Creek, are critical to the social and economic health of the area, and for the recovery of threatened and endangered species in the Platte River Basin. Groundwater and surface water are heavily used resources, and uses are regulated in the study area. Irrigation is the dominant water use and, in most instances, is supplied by both groundwater and surface-water sources. The U.S. Geological Survey and its partners have collaborated to use airborne geophysical surveys for areas of the North and South Platte River valleys including the valley of Lodgepole Creek in western Nebraska. The objective of the surveys was to map the aquifers and underlying bedrock topography of selected areas to help improve the understanding of groundwater–surface-water relations to guide water-management decisions. This project was a cooperative study involving the North Platte Natural Resources District, the South Platte Natural Resources District, the Twin Platte Natural Resources District, the Conservation and Survey Division of the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, and the Nebraska Environmental Trust. This report presents the interpreted base-of-aquifer surface for part of the area consisting of the North Platte Natural Resources District, the South Platte Natural Resources District, and the Twin Platte Natural Resources District. The interpretations presented herein build on work done by previous researchers from 2008 to 2009 by incorporating additional airborne electromagnetic survey data collected in 2010 and additional test holes from separate, related studies. To make the airborne electromagnetic data useful, numerical inversion was used to convert the measured data into a depth-dependent subsurface resistivity model. An interpretation of the elevation and configuration of the base of aquifer was completed in a geographic information system that provided x, y, and z coordinates. The process of interpretation involved manually picking locations (base-of-aquifer elevations) on the displayed airborne electromagnetic-derived resistivity profile by the project geophysicist, hydrologist, and geologist. These locations, or picks, of the base-of-aquifer elevation (typically the top of the Brule Formation of the White River Group) were then stored in a georeferenced database. The pick was made by comparing the inverted airborne electromagnetic-derived resistivity profile to the lithologic descriptions and borehole geophysical logs from nearby test holes. The database of interpretive picks of the base-of-aquifer elevation was used to create primary input for interpolating the new base-of-aquifer contours. The automatically generated contours were manually adjusted based on the interpreted location of paleovalleys eroded into the base-of-aquifer surface and associated bedrock highs, many of which were unmapped before this study. When contours are overlain by the water-table surface, the saturated thickness of the aquifer can be computed, which allows an estimate of total water in storage. The contours of the base-of-aquifer surface presented in this report may be used as the lower boundary layer in existing and future groundwater-flow models. The integration of geophysical data into the contouring process facilitated a more continuous and spatially comprehensive view of the hydrogeologic framework.

Nebraska↗

Lateral and vertical channel movement and potential for bed-material movement on the Madison River downstream from Earthquake Lake, Montana

The 1959 Hebgen Lake earthquake caused a massive landslide (Madison Slide) that dammed the Madison River and formed Earthquake Lake. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers excavated a spillway through the Madison Slide to permit outflow from Earthquake Lake. In June 1970, high streamflows on the Madison River severely eroded the spillway channel and damaged the roadway embankment along U.S. Highway 287 downstream from the Madison Slide. Investigations undertaken following the 1970 flood events concluded that substantial erosion through and downstream from the spillway could be expected for streamflows greater than 3,500 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s). Accordingly, the owners of Hebgen Dam, upstream from Earthquake Lake, have tried to manage releases from Hebgen Lake to prevent streamflows from exceeding 3,500 ft 3 /s measured at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gaging station 0638800 Madison River at Kirby Ranch, near Cameron, Montana. Management of flow releases from Hebgen Lake to avoid exceeding the threshold streamflow at USGS gaging station 06038800 is difficult, and has been questioned for two reasons. First, no road damage was reported downstream from the Earthquake Lake outlet in 1993, 1996, and 1997 when streamflows exceeded the 3,500-ft 3 /s threshold. Second, the 3,500-ft 3 /s threshold generally precludes releases of higher flows that could be beneficial to the blue-ribbon trout fishery downstream in the Madison River. In response to concerns about minimizing streamflow downstream from Earthquake Lake and the possible armoring of the spillway, the USGS, in cooperation with the Madison River Fisheries Technical Advisory Committee (MADTAC; Bureau of Land Management; Montana Department of Environmental Quality; Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks; PPL-Montana; U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service - Gallatin National Forest; and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service), conducted a study to determine movement of the Madison River channel downstream from Earthquake Lake and to investigate the potential for bed material movement along the same reach. The purpose of this report is to present information about the lateral and vertical movement of the Madison River from 1970 to 2006 for a 1-mile reach downstream from Earthquake Lake and for Raynolds Pass Bridge, and to provide an analysis of the potential for bed-material movement so that MADTAC can evaluate the applicability of the previously determined threshold streamflow for initiation of damaging erosion. As part of this study channel cross sections originally surveyed by the USGS in 1971 were resurveyed in 2006. Incremental channel-movement distances were determined by comparing the stream centerlines from 14 aerial photographs taken between 1970 and 2006. Depths of channel incision and aggregation were determined by comparing the 2006 and 1971 cross-section and water-surface data. Particle sizes of bed and bank materials were measured in 2006 and 2008 using the pebble-count method and sieve analyses. A one-dimensional hydraulic-flow model (HEC-RAS) was used to calculate mean boundary-shear stresses for various streamflows; these calculated boundary-shear stresses were compared to calculated critical-shear stresses for the bed materials to determine the potential for bed-material movement. A comparison of lateral channel movement distances with annual peak streamflows shows that streamflows higher than the 3,500-ft 3 /s threshold were followed by lateral channel movement except from 1991 to 1992 and possibly from 1996 to 1997. However, it was not possible to discern whether the channel moved gradually or suddenly, or in response to one peak flow, to several peak flows, or to sustained flows. The channel moved between 2002 and 2005 even when streamflows were less than the threshold streamflow of 3,500 ft 3 /s. Comparisons of cross sections and aerial photographs show that the channel has moved laterally and incised and aggraded to varying degrees. The channel has developed meander bends and has incised as much as 5–12 feet (ft) through the upstream part of the Madison Slide (cross sections 1400–800). Near cross section 800, the stream has eroded into the steep right bank between the stream and the road where fill was mechanically placed after 1970. Channel movement also was noted downstream from the Madison Slide. Near Raynolds Pass Bridge, about 3 miles (mi) downstream from Earthquake Lake, elevations across the channel have changed by -1.4 ft to +1.9 ft, but these changes were local in nature and could represent a few rocks or depressions in the bed. Overall, it does not appear that the materials eroded from the Madison Slide are causing aggradation in the subreach near the Raynolds Pass Bridge. Comparisons of critical shear stresses to mean boundary-shear stresses indicate that the D50 particle sizes (median size) along the right side of the bed between cross sections 400 and 500 and along the right side of the bed between cross sections 1300 and 1400 could move at the threshold streamflow. In contrast, most of the D84 particle sizes at those two locations probably will not move at the threshold streamflow. This lack of movement for the larger particles at the threshold streamflow could lead to further armoring of the bed as the D50 and smaller-sized particles are removed from the bed and transported downstream. The Shields parameter values from 0.04 to 0.08 that were used to calculate critical shear stresses could be conservative for a high-gradient stream such as the Madison. A higher, less conservative, Shields parameter would result in higher critical shear stresses, meaning that higher streamflows would be required to move material than those reported herein. In addition, because materials in the channel thalweg are exposed to higher boundary-shear stresses than the materials along the sides of the channel, larger, more erosion-resistant materials likely exist in the deeper parts of the channel where high-flow depths and velocities prevented sediment sampling. Movement of these materials might require higher critical shear stresses than estimated in this report. Characterization of sediment sizes in the center of the stream and observation of bed-material movement for a range of streamflows could provide information to help refine the Shields parameter and critical-shear stress estimates for bed materials in the Madison River downstream from Earthquake Lake. Furthermore, resurveying cross sections and water-surface elevations more frequently (either annually or after high streamflows) could better define the relation between streamflow and lateral and vertical channel movement.

Montana↗

Erosion potential and flood vulnerability of streams and stream crossings at Acadia National Park, Maine

Acadia National Park has had increases in the frequency and magnitude of precipitation in recent years, leading to increased flood flows, stream erosion, and costly infrastructure damage. To improve infrastructure management in a changing climate, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, has developed multiple datasets that can help natural resource managers identify stream reaches and stream crossings that have the highest potential for erosion and flood damage within Acadia National Park. To develop these datasets, we first created a lidar-derived hydrography based on a 1-meter digital elevation model and then estimated peak flows at stream crossings and along the stream network using regional regression equations for Maine. We assessed the erosion potential of stream reaches by computing channel morphologic and hydrologic metrics associated with erosive power, such as stream steepness, topographic openness, and percent storage in the contributing watershed. Stream crossing flood vulnerability was assessed by comparing estimated peak flows to stream crossing conveyance capacities. Our results indicate that stream reaches in the headwaters of the Acadia National Park highlands such as Sargent, Penobscot, and Cadillac Mountain, have the highest erosion potential and generally coincide with reaches that have had erosion and infrastructure damage in the past. Stream crossings with the highest flood vulnerability are distributed throughout Mount Desert Island and Acadia National Park, especially south of Jordan Pond, north of Sargent Mountain, and surrounding Eagle Lake. Over a quarter of the total stream crossings have insufficient information to compute flood vulnerability and are often on the parts of the stream with the highest potential for erosion. The datasets allow users to identify stream reaches with the highest erosion potential, stream crossings that are most vulnerable to flood damage, and to highlight areas where supplemental field assessments could most effectively be completed.

Maine↗

Detection of rock bridges by infrared thermal imaging and modeling

Characterization of rock discontinuities and rock bridges is required to define stability conditions of fractured rock masses in both natural and engineered environments. Although remote sensing methods for mapping discontinuities have improved in recent years, remote detection of intact rock bridges on cliff faces remains challenging, with their existence typically confirmed only after failure. In steep exfoliating cliffs, such as El Capitan in Yosemite Valley (California, USA), rockfalls mainly occur along cliff-parallel exfoliation joints, with rock bridges playing a key role in the stability of partially detached exfoliation sheets. We employed infrared thermal imaging (i.e., thermography) as a new means of detecting intact rock bridges prior to failure. An infrared thermal panorama of El Capitan revealed cold thermal signatures for the surfaces of two granitic exfoliation sheets, consistent with the expectation that air circulation cools the back of the partially detached sheets. However, we also noted small areas of warm thermal anomalies on these same sheets, even during periods of nocturnal rock cooling. Rock attachment via rock bridges is the likely cause for the warm anomalies in the thermal data. 2-D model simulations of the thermal behavior of one of the monitored sheets reproduce the observed anomalies and explain the temperature differences detected in the rock bridge area. Based on combined thermal and ground-based lidar imaging, and using geometric and rock fracture mechanics analysis, we are able to quantify the stability of both sheets. Our analysis demonstrates that thermography can remotely detect intact rock bridges and thereby greatly improve rockfall hazard assessment.

California↗

Geophysical-log and hydraulic-test analyses of groundwater-production wells at the Hannahville Indian Community, Menominee County, Michigan

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Hannahville Indian Community, evaluated the geohydrology of the bedrock formations and hydraulic properties of groundwater-production wells at the Hannahville Indian Community in Menominee County, Michigan. Geophysical logs were collected from five wells at two sites during September 2012. The logs were analyzed to characterize the lithostratigraphy, bedding and fractures, and hydraulic properties of the geologic formations and aquifers beneath the Hannahville Indian Community. The geophysical logs collected included natural gamma radiation, electromagnetic conductivity, wellbore image, caliper, ambient and stressed flowmeter, fluid resistivity, temperature, and wellbore deviation. The geophysical logs were analyzed with results from short-term hydraulic tests to estimate the transmissivity and water-level altitudes of flow zones penetrated by the wells. The geophysical log analysis indicated the wells penetrated four distinct lithostratigraphic units—shale and carbonate rock, upper carbonate rock, carbonate rock and glauconitic sandstone, and lower carbonate rock. Most of the fractures penetrated by the wellbores appeared to be related bedding partings. The lower carbonate rock unit contained solution features. Analysis of the geophysical logs and hydraulic tests indicated that each of the five wells penetrated from one to four flow zones. The Casino 5 well penetrated a flow zone that was associated with solution features and had an estimated total transmissivity of 4,280 feet squared per day (ft 2 /d), the highest estimate for all the wells. The Casino 3 well penetrated four flow zones and had an estimated total transmissivity of 3,570 ft 2 /d. The flow zones penetrated in the lower carbonate rock unit by the Casino 3 and 5 wells were hydraulically connected. The Golf Shack well penetrated two flow zones and had an estimated total transmissivity of 40 ft 2 /d, the lowest estimate for all the wells. The Community 1 and Community 2 wells penetrated three and four flow zones, respectively, and had estimated total transmissivity values of 185 and 280 ft 2 /d, respectively.

Michigan↗

The source, discharge, and chemical characteristics of selected springs, and the abundance and health of associated endemic anuran species in the Mojave network parks

Hydrological and biological investigations were done during 2005 and 2006 in cooperation with the U.S. National Park Service to investigate the source, discharge, and chemical characteristics of selected springs and the abundance and health of endemic anuran (frog and toad) species at Darwin Falls in Death Valley National Park, Piute Spring in Mojave National Preserve, and Fortynine Palms Oasis in Joshua Tree National Park. Discharge from the springs at these sites sustains isolated riparian habitats in the normally dry Mojave Desert. Data were collected on water quantity (discharge) and quality, air and water temperature, and abundance and health of endemic anuran species. In addition, a single survey of the abundance and health of endemic anuran species was completed at Rattlesnake Canyon in Joshua Tree National Park. Results from this study were compared to limited historical data, where they exist, and can provide a baseline for future hydrological and biological investigations to evaluate the health and sustainability of the resource and its response to changing climate and increasing human use. Radiocarbon dating of the water yielded estimated ages of about 7,000 years at Piute Spring and about 3,000 years at Darwin Spring, and tritium-helium-3 dating indicated an age of less than 2 years at Fortynine Palms Oasis. Stable hydrogen-isotope ratios were used to interpret an average altitude of recharge of 2,348 meters for Darwin Spring (about 1,415 meters higher than the altitude of Darwin Spring), 1,668 meters for Piute Spring (about 766 meters higher than the altitude of Piute Spring), and 1,400 meters for the Upper Pool at Fortynine Palms Oasis (about 543 meters higher than the altitude of the Upper Pool). Water-quality data collected for this study did not appear to be sensitive to trends in precipitation or seasonality in the Darwin Falls and Piute Spring study areas; however, it was sensitive to trends in Fortynine Palms Oasis where salinity increased by more than 10 percent during the 2 years of this study. Such a rapid response is consistent with the comparatively short travel time of less than 2 years from recharge to discharge at Fortynine Palms Oasis. Of the 14 trace elements analyzed, only concentrations of uranium at Fortynine Palms Oasis and arsenic at Darwin Spring were above drinking water standards; both constituents are derived from natural sources in the drainage basin and, therefore, are likely to have accumulated as a result of natural processes. Endemic anuran species were surveyed at Darwin Falls for the western toad ( Anaxyrus boreas ) and the red-spotted toad ( Anaxyrus punctatus ), at Piute Spring for the red-spotted toad, and at Fortynine Palms Oasis for the red-spotted toad and California treefrog ( Pseudacris cadaverina ). Historically, red-spotted toads were at the edge of their range at Darwin Falls, but they were not detected during this study and have not been detected since the early 1980s. The 2006 western toad population at Darwin Falls was estimated at 381 adults (95-percent confidence interval [CI] of 314–482). The population of red-spotted toads at Piute Spring was estimated at 1,153 adults (95-percent CI of 935–1,503). However, an elevated rate of abnormalities (approximately 5 percent) was recorded in red-spotted toads as well as the presence of the chytrid fungus, Bactrochochytrium dendrobatidis , at Piute Spring. In Joshua Tree National Park, the California treefrog now occupies only three of the seven historically occupied drainages. Populations of California treefrogs at Fortynine Palms Oasis have declined more than 50 percent from 288 in 1969–71 to 109 in 2006. A similar decline was observed in the populations of red-spotted toads at Fortynine Palms Oasis from 300 adults in 1969–71 to 155 adults (95-percent CI of 90–139) in 2006. The red-spotted toads at Fortynine Palms Oasis also exhibited the presence of Bactrochochytrium dendrobatidis .

California↗