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USGS2026

Investigating hydrologic alteration under historical and future scenarios in the Mobile River and Perdido River basins using the cubist algorithm

This study investigates the impacts of human activities and climate variability on hydrologic alterations in the Mobile River and Perdido River Basins of Alabama. The research uses a machine learning approach, specifically cubist models, to quantify and predict changes in flow duration curves (FDCs) under both historical (1980–2009) and future climate scenarios. Future climate projections include the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2 4.5 and SSP5 8.5), evaluated for two future periods: 1980–2069 and 1980–2099. The models incorporate a wide range of covariates, including basin geomorphology, aquifer characteristics, land cover, water storage, environmental factors, solar radiation, census data, and water use data. Under the baseline period (1980–2009), most level 12 hydrologic unit codes (HUC12s) in both basins showed alterations, with substantial differences observed between pre- and post-alteration FDCs. The model performance varied, with a Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency between 0.91 and 0.95 for testing and between 0.98 and 0.99 for training during the baseline period. Future projections under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios generally differed significantly from baseline conditions across all flow regimes ( p < 0.05). In contrast, SSP2 4.5 showed comparatively limited statistical significance, while SSP5 8.5 exhibited significant departures from baseline conditions across all flow regimes, reflecting the greater influence of high-emissions climate forcing on projected hydrologic alterations. Overall, the RCP scenarios projected more widespread statistically significant changes than the corresponding SSP scenarios at the same forcing level, particularly when comparing RCP4.5 with SSP2-4.5, while both RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5 consistently indicated greater hydrologic alterations than their moderate-emissions counterparts. These findings highlight the importance of considering different flow regimes when assessing the impacts of climate variability on streamflow. This study contributes to the understanding of hydrologic alterations in the Mobile River and Perdido River Basins, providing insights for water resource management and ecological conservation efforts in the region.

Alabama↗

USGS2003

Changes in winter air temperatures near Lake Michigan, 1851-1993, as determined from regional lake-ice records

Records of freezeup and breakup dates for Grand Traverse Bay, Michigan, and Lake Mendota, Wisconsin, are among the longest ice records available near the Great Lakes, beginning in 185 1 and 1855, respectively. The timing of freezeup and breakup results from an integration of meteorological conditions (primarily air temperature) that occur before these events. Changes in the average timing of these ice-events are translated into changes in air temperature by the use of empirical and process-driven models. The timing of freezeup and breakup at the two locations represents an integration of air temperatures over slightly different seasons (months). Records from both locations indicate that the early winter period before about 1890 was - 15°C cooler than the early winter period after that time; the mean temperature has, however, remained relatively constant since about 1890. Changes in breakup dates demonstrate a similar 1.0-1 .5”C increase in late winter and early spring air temperatures about 1890. More recent average breakup dates at both locations have been earlier than during 1890-1940, indicating an additional warming of 1.2”C in March since about 1940 and a warming of 1 . 1°C in January-March since about 1980. Ice records at these sites will continue to provide an early indication of the anticipated climatic warming, not only because of the large response of ice cover to small changes in air temperature but also because these records integrate climatic conditions during the seasons (winter-spring) when most warming is forecast to occur. Future reductions in ice cover may strongly affect the winter ecology of the Great Lakes by reducing the stable environment required by various levels of the food chain.

Michigan, Wisconsin↗

USGS2019

Energy intake rate influences survival of Black Oystercatcher Haematopus bachmani broods

Black Oystercatchers Haematopus bachmani, a species of conservation concern, depend on marine intertidal prey resources. We examined diet, feeding rates, growth, and survival of Black Oystercatcher broods in southcentral Alaska, 2013-2014. To determine the importance of diet on brood survival, we modeled daily survival rates of broods as a function of energy intake rate and other ecological factors. We hypothesized that broods fed at higher energy intake rates would grow faster and fly earlier, thereby being less vulnerable to predators and having higher rates of survival. Consistent with our prediction, broods with higher energy intake rates had higher rates of growth and daily survival. The best-supported model indicated that brood survival varied by energy intake rate and brood age. To understand how adults meet the increasing nutritional needs of developing chicks, we examined delivery rates and prey type and size as a function of brood age. Delivery rates differed by age, but composition and size classes of prey items did not, indicating that adults respond to the rising energetic needs of broods by increasing parental effort rather than switching prey. These findings demonstrate the importance of diet and provisioning to broods and given the consequences of reduced energy intake on survival, indicate that shifts in intertidal invertebrates as a result of climate change could have significant impacts on Black Oystercatcher populations.

Alaska↗

USGS2005

Murre eggs ( Uria aalge and Uria lomvia ) as indicators of mercury contamination in the Alaskan marine environment

Sixty common murre ( Uria aalge ) and 27 thick-billed murre ( Uria lomvia ) eggs collected by the Seabird Tissue Archival and Monitoring Project (STAMP) in 1999−2001 from two Gulf of Alaska and three Bering Sea nesting colonies were analyzed for total mercury (Hg) using isotope dilution cold vapor inductively coupled mass spectrometry. Hg concentrations (wet mass) ranged from 0.011 μg/g to 0.357 μg/g (relative standard deviation = 76%), while conspecifics from the same colonies and years had an average relative standard deviation of 33%. Hg levels in eggs from the Gulf of Alaska (0.166 μg/g ± 0.011 μg/g) were significantly higher ( p < 0.0001) than in the Bering Sea (0.047 μg/g ± 0.004 μg/g). Within the Bering Sea, Hg was significantly higher ( p = 0.0007) in eggs from Little Diomede Island near the arctic than at the two more southern colonies. Although thick-billed and common murres are ecologically similar, there were significant species differences in egg Hg concentrations within each region ( p < 0.0001). In the Bering Sea, eggs from thick-billed murres had higher Hg concentrations than eggs from common murres, while in the Gulf of Alaska, common murre eggs had higher concentrations than those of thick-billed murres. A separate one-way analysis of variance on the only time−trend data currently available for a colony (St. Lazaria Island in the Gulf of Alaska) found significantly lower Hg concentrations in common murre eggs collected in 2001 compared to 1999 ( p = 0.017). Results from this study indicate that murre eggs may be effective monitoring units for detecting geographic, species, and temporal patterns of Hg contamination in marine food webs. The relatively small intracolony variation in egg Hg levels and the ability to consistently obtain adequate sample sizes both within and among colonies over a large geographic range means that monitoring efforts using murre eggs will have suitable statistical power for detecting environmental patterns of Hg contamination. The potential influences of trophic effects, physical transport patterns, and biogeochemical processes on these monitoring efforts are discussed, and future plans to investigate the sources of the observed variability are presented.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2020

Visualizing the ecological importance of pre-Euro-American settlement fire across three Midwestern landscapes

Bearing-tree data were used to calculate an index, pyrophilic percentage, depicting the importance of fire before Euro-American settlement on three landscapes, two within the Prairie Peninsula and one outside the region. Based on functional traits, bearing trees were classified as either pyrophilic or pyrophobic, applied to Public Land Survey points, and the pyrophilic percentage was calculated for each point. Kriging was applied to this point database to create a continuous surface of pyrophilic percentages. Regression analysis was used to relate this surface to environmental factors. Regression models created separately for each study area explained 38 to 53% of the variation in pyrophilic percentage. A positive association between pyrophilic percentage and distance to water and summer potential evapotranspiration was consistent across all study sites. The consistently high values and spatial patterns of pyrophilic percentage revealed fire-dominated landscapes interspersed with patches of pyrophobic vegetation. The restriction of pyrophobic areas to the leeside (east) of waterbodies indicated these served as firebreaks in a fire-swept landscape. Lake Michigan must have had a profound effect on pre- Euro-American settlement fire environments, serving as a massive physical firebreak while casting a moist maritime climate eastward. In southern and southwestern Illinois, the Mississippi River and associated tributaries along with an increase in topographic complexity also served as firebreaks, with pyrophobic forests restricted to riparian zones which progressively graded to pyrophilic vegetation on surrounding uplands. Our analysis expands the use of Public Land Survey data by converting bearing trees into a meaningful fire ecology index. While much of the landscape included in our study area is now in agriculture or urbanized, pyrophilic percentage maps can help guide land managers in the application of fire for restoration, conservation, and forestry purposes.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin↗

USGS2023

Reanalysis indicates little evidence of reduction in eagle mortality rate by automated curtailment of wind turbines

Unintended consequences of renewable energy development include collision-caused deaths of birds and bats. Energy companies may risk prosecution if protected species are among the casualties. Shutting down turbines during high collision-risk conditions could reduce mortality rates, and several companies are developing systems to identify such conditions. A recent peer-reviewed article published in the Journal of Applied Ecology reported a remarkable ‘82% (75%–89%) reduction in the fatality rate’ of eagles at a wind energy facility due to a device marketed as Identiflight®—remarkable because of the impressive effect size and the extremely high level of precision. We show that reported results stem from four major errors, which, when corrected, give an unremarkable estimate of 50% (−159%, 89%) reduction (or possible increase) in the fatality rate. The errors include the following: (i) Ignoring annual variation . They compare the average number of eagle fatalities over 4 years before activation of Identiflight® to the number in a single year after, ignoring annual variation in fatalities. (ii) Unfounded causal inference . Lack of replication (one treatment year at one site) is ignored, leading to unwarranted causal inference. (iii) Inflated effect size . Effect size is inflated by assuming (without providing evidence) that the difference in fatality relative to the mean at a neighbouring site would be exactly repeated at the treatment site. Furthermore, the observed difference in fatalities at the control site depends strongly on the arbitrarily chosen date distinguishing the ‘Before’ and ‘After’ periods, yielding unreliable results. (iv) Inconsistency of data . It is unclear why 7 of 42 reported eagle fatalities were not included in the data analyzed, potentially further inflating the estimated effect size. Synthesis and applications . The recent claim, published in the Journal of Applied Ecology, that ‘Eagle fatalities are reduced by automated curtailment of wind turbines’ is not supported by the data but stems from errors that led to strongly overstated effect size and precision, and unfounded inference. In theory, automated curtailment has obvious potential for reducing eagle fatalities, but several more years of data at several locations and appropriate statistical analyses will be required to evaluate its effectiveness and to inform management prescriptions involving this technology.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2002

Carbon isotope composition of ambient CO 2 and recycling: a matrix simulation model

The relationship between isotopic composition and concentration of ambient CO 2 in a canopy and its associated convective boundary layer was modeled. The model divides the canopy and convective boundary layer into several layers. Photosynthesis, respiration, and exchange between each layer can be simulated by matrix equations. This simulation can be used to calculate recycling; defined here as the amount of respired CO 2 re-fixed by photosynthesis relative to the total amount of respired CO 2 . At steady state the matrix equations can be solved for the canopy and convective boundary layer CO 2 concentration and isotopic profile, which can be used to calculate a theoretical recycling index according to a previously developed equation. There is complete agreement between simulated and theoretical recycling indices for different exchange scenarios. Recycling indices from a simulation of gas exchange between a heterogeneous vegetation canopy and the troposphere also agreed with a more generalized form of the theoretical recycling equation developed here.

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS2016

Variability of the carbonate chemistry in a shallow, seagrass-dominated ecosystem: implications for ocean acidification experiments

Open ocean observations have shown that increasing levels of anthropogenically derived atmospheric CO 2 are causing acidification of the world's oceans. Yet little is known about coastal acidification and studies are just beginning to characterise the carbonate chemistry of shallow, nearshore zones where many ecologically and economically important organisms occur. We characterised the carbonate chemistry of seawater within an area dominated by seagrass beds (Saint Joseph Bay, Florida) to determine the extent of variation in pH and p CO 2 over monthly and daily timescales. Distinct diel and seasonal fluctuations were observed at daily and monthly timescales respectively, indicating the influence of photosynthetic and respiratory processes on the local carbonate chemistry. Over the course of a year, the range in monthly values of pH (7.36-8.28), aragonite saturation state (0.65-5.63), and calculated pCO2 (195-2537 μatm) were significant. When sampled on a daily basis the range in pH (7.70-8.06), aragonite saturation state (1.86-3.85), and calculated p CO 2 (379-1019 μatm) also exhibited significant range and indicated variation between timescales. The results of this study have significant implications for the design of ocean acidification experiments where nearshore species are utilised and indicate that coastal species are experiencing far greater fluctuations in carbonate chemistry than previously thought.

Marine and Freshwater Research↗

USGS2024

Relation between the relative abundance and collapse of Aphanizomenon flos-aquae and microbial antagonism in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon

Aphanizomenon flos-aquae (AFA) is the dominant filamentous cyanobacterium that develops into blooms in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon each year. During AFA bloom and collapse, ecosystem conditions for endangered Lost River and shortnose suckers deteriorate, thus motivating the need to identify processes that limit AFA abundance and decline. Here we investigate the relations between AFA and other members of the microbial community (photosynthetic and non-photosynthetic bacteria and archaea), how those relations impact abundance and collapse of AFA, and the types of microbial conditions that suppress AFA. We found significant spatial variation in AFA relative abundance during the 2016 bloom period using 16S rRNA sequencing. The Pelican Marina (PM) site had the lowest AFA relative abundance, and this was coincident with increased relative abundance of Candidatus Sericytochromatia , Flavobacterium , and Rheinheimera , some of which are known AFA antagonists. The AFA collapse coincided with phosphorus limitation relative to nitrogen and the increased relative abundance of Cyanobium and Candidatus Sericytochromatia, which outcompete AFA when dissolved inorganic nitrogen is available. The data collected in this study indicate the importance of dissolved inorganic nitrogen combined with microbial community structure in suppressing AFA abundance.

Oregon↗

USGS2005

Predicted sex ratio of juvenile Kemp's Ridley sea turtles captured near Steinhatchee, Florida

The Kemp's Ridley ( Lepidochelys kempii ) is one of the most endangered sea turtles in the world, and it possesses temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD). Sex ratios produced under TSD can vary widely and can affect the reproductive ecology of a population. Therefore, sex ratios produced from TSD are of ecological and conservation interest. The current study validated and utilized a testosterone radioimmunoassay (RIA) to examine the sex ratio of juvenile Kemp's Ridleys inhabiting the waters near Steinhatchee, Florida. Testosterone levels were measured in blood samples collected from juvenile Kemp's Ridleys captured over a three-year period. Results of this study indicate that a significant female bias (approximately 3.7:1) occurs in the aggregation of juvenile Kemp's Ridleys inhabiting the waters near Steinhatchee.

Copeia↗

USGS2019

Stream sediment geochemistry of four small drainages on the north shore of Kauai west of Hanalei

Geochemical compositions of fine-grained stream sediment from four drainages on the north shore of the island of Kauai, Hawaii, west of Hanalei and two back-beach sites were explored to increase understanding about land-based runoff and ecological risk from runoff to nearshore coral communities. Stream and beach sediment were collected between July 30 and August 2, 2016, and major, minor, and trace elements in the less than 63 micrometer-diameter fraction were analyzed by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy and mass spectroscopy. The potentially toxic metals Cr, Cu, Ni, and Zn exceeded levels at which adverse biological effects could be observed; however, these metals seemed to be largely mineral-bound and thus were unlikely to harm organisms. Cd and Pb were below levels of ecological concern. Only a small amount of fine-grained sediment was retained on beaches west of Hanalei sampled in summer 2016 (mean=8.8 percent, median=0.4 percent, range=0–92.8 percent, n=41). Although the scarcity of fine-grained sediment precluded land-based runoff sourcing to the nearshore region, it did indicate that fine-grained sediment and associated contaminants did not accumulate over the long term in the sampled intertidal, subtidal, and reef-flat environments, which would reduce sediment-related pressures on coral communities there.

Hawaii↗

USGS2026

Toxicity of 6PPD alternatives to salmonid cell lines

Stormwater runoff in urban areas introduces numerous anthropogenic chemicals into surrounding aquatic environments. One such chemical is 6PPD ( N -(1,3-Dimethylbutyl)- N ’-phenyl- p- phenylenediamine), the primary antidegradant responsible for protecting tire rubber from ozone-induced degradation and cracking. When exposed to ozone on the road surface 6PPD is transformed into the toxic transformation product 6PPD-quinone (6PPDQ). This compound is highly lethal to coho salmon ( O ncorhynchus kisutch ), and 24 hour 50% lethal concentrations (LC 50 ; 41-95 ng/L) are frequently detected in urban streams during stormwater runoff events 1-5 . The highest stream concentrations of 6PPDQ and most extensive coho salmon mortality occur in high-traffic urban areas, where tire wear particles accumulate due to the frequent braking and acceleration of cars 6 . In the Seattle area, some coho salmon-bearing streams can lose over 90% of returning females prior to spawning due to 6PPDQ-containing runoff 7 . Prespawn loss of this magnitude could result in the extinction of some urban spawning populations 8 . Importantly, the lethal effects of 6PPDQ have been observed in several other salmonid species, indicating that its impact may threaten fish health for urban aquatic environments globally 9-11 . The ubiquity of 6PPD in automobile tires, high toxicity of the transformation product 6PPDQ, and prevalence of 6PPD and 6PPDQ in environmental matrices has spurred investigations into alternative rubber antiozonants to replace 6PPD that retain tire performance while reducing ecological harm. A technical memorandum provided to the legislature by the Washington State Department of Ecology summarized a list of potential 6PPD alternatives requiring further study, including several structurally similar p-phenylenediamines (PPDs) 12 . However, the structural similarity of other PPDs to 6PPD and their known production of quinone transformation products 13 raises concerns that they may elicit similar toxic effects as 6PPDQ. Currently, investigations into the toxicity of proposed PPD alternatives or their ozonated transformation products in coho salmon are limited, representing a significant data gap in evaluating whether they offer improved environmental safety over 6PPD. This project investigated the toxicity of proposed alternative rubber antiozonants in vitro using immortalized cell lines derived from three salmonid species with known differences in sensitivity to 6PPDQ (coho salmon, Chinook salmon ( O. tshawytscha ), rainbow trout ( O. mykiss )) 1 . These immortalized cell lines replicate toxic responses observed in in vivo studies, while enabling higher-throughput testing and reducing the need for animal use and other resource-intensive procedures. The antiozonants and their transformation products selected for testing were chosen based on multiple criteria, including their inclusion in the Ecology technical memorandum, structural substitutions (e.g., branched/cyclic alkyl vs aryl substitutions), commercial availability, and input from the Washington State Department of Ecology and other industry experts.

Report↗

USGS2019

A landscape model of variable social-ecological fire regimes

Fire regimes are now recognized as the product of social processes whereby fire on any landscape is the product of human-generated drivers: climate change, historical patterns of vegetation manipulation, invasive species, active fire suppression, ongoing fuel management efforts, prescribed burning, and accidental ignitions. We developed a new fire model (Social-Climate Related Pyrogenic Processes and their Landscape Effects: SCRPPLE) that emphasizes the social dimensions of fire and enables simulation of fuel-treatment effects, fire suppression, and prescribed fires. Fire behavior was parameterized with daily fire weather, ignition, and fire-boundary data. SCRPPLE was initially parameterized and developed for the Lake Tahoe Basin (LTB) in California and Nevada, USA although its behavior is general and could be applied worldwide. We demonstrate the behavior and utility of our model via four simple scenarios that emphasize the social dimensions of fire regimes: a) Recent Historical: simulated recent historical patterns of lightning and accidental fires and current patterns of fire suppression, b) Natural-Fire-Regime: simulated wildfire without suppression, accidental fires, or prescribed fires, holding all other factors the same as Recent Historical, c) Enhanced Suppression: simulated a doubling of the effectiveness of suppression, holding all other factors the same as Recent Historical, and d) Reduced Accidental Ignitions: within which the number of accidental fires was reduced by half, holding all other factors the same as Recent Historical. Results indicate that SCRPPLE can recreate past fire regimes, including size, intensity, and locations. Furthermore, our results indicate that the ‘Enhanced Suppression’ and ‘Reduced Accidental Ignitions’ scenarios had similar capacity to reduce fire and related tree mortality over time, suggesting that within the broad outlines of the scenarios, reducing accidental fires can be as effective as substantially increasing resources for suppression.

California, Nevada↗

USGS2020

Divergent biotic and abiotic filtering of root endosphere and rhizosphere soil fungal communities along ecological gradients

Plant roots assemble two distinct microbial compartments: the rhizosphere (microbes in soil surrounding roots) and the endosphere (microbes within roots). Our knowledge of fungal community assembly in these compartments is limited, especially in wetlands. We tested the hypothesis that biotic factors would have direct effects on rhizosphere and endosphere assembly, while abiotic factors would have direct and indirect effects. Using a field study, we examined the influences of salinity, water level and biotic factors on baldcypress (Taxodium distichum) fungal communities. We found that endosphere fungi were correlated with host density and canopy cover as opposed to rhizosphere, suggesting that hosts can impose selective filters on fungi colonizing into their roots. Meanwhile, local abiotic conditions strongly influenced both rhizosphere and endosphere diversity in opposite patterns: e.g. highest endosphere diversity (hump-shaped) while lowest rhizosphere diversity (U-shaped) at intermediate salinity levels. These results indicate that the assembly and structure for the root endosphere and rhizosphere within a host can be shaped by different processes. Our results also highlight the importance of assessing how environmental changes affect plant and plant-associated fungal communities in wetland ecosystems where saltwater intrusion and sea level rise are major threats to both plant and fungal communities.

FEMS Microbiology Ecology↗

USGS2014

Extensive dispersal of Roanoke logperch ( Percina rex ) inferred from genetic marker data

The dispersal ecology of most stream fishes is poorly characterised, complicating conservation efforts for these species. We used microsatellite DNA marker data to characterise dispersal patterns and effective population size ( N e ) for a population of Roanoke logperch Percina rex , an endangered darter (Percidae). Juveniles and candidate parents were sampled for 2 years at sites throughout the Roanoke River watershed. Dispersal was inferred via genetic assignment tests (ATs), pedigree reconstruction (PR) and estimation of lifetime dispersal distance under a genetic isolation-by-distance model. Estimates of N e varied from 105 to 1218 individuals, depending on the estimation method. Based on PR, polygamy was frequent in parents of both sexes, with individuals spawning with an average of 2.4 mates. The sample contained 61 half-sibling pairs, but only one parent–offspring pair and no full-sib pairs, which limited our ability to discriminate natal dispersal of juveniles from breeding dispersal of their parents between spawning events. Nonetheless, all methods indicated extensive dispersal. The AT indicated unrestricted dispersal among sites ≤15 km apart, while siblings inferred by the PR were captured an average of 14 km and up to 55 km apart. Model-based estimates of median lifetime dispersal distance (6–24 km, depending on assumptions) bracketed AT and PR estimates, indicating that widely dispersed individuals do, on average, contribute to gene flow. Extensive dispersal of P. rex suggests that darters and other small benthic stream fishes may be unexpectedly mobile. Monitoring and management activities for such populations should encompass entire watersheds to fully capture population dynamics.

Ecology of Freshwater Fish↗

USGS2021

Atlantic sturgeon status and movement ecology in an extremely small spawning habitat: The Nanticoke River-Marshyhope Creek, Chesapeake Bay

Biotelemetry of Atlantic sturgeon Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus has exposed spawning behaviors in ever-smaller estuaries, surprising for the NW Atlantic’s largest anadromous species. Small estuary — the Nanticoke River and Marshyhope Creek (Chesapeake Bay) — spawning-run adults and their habitat affinities are described based upon direct sampling and biotelemetry for the period 2014–2018. High rates of recapture over this period indicate a very small adult population size. Genetics revealed a very small effective population size ( N e = 12.2, 95% CI = 6.7–21.9). Most returns occurred during September at 20–27 °C. All fish departed as fall temperatures declined below 20 °C. Multi-beam sonar identified small-dispersed areas of sand-cobble and cobble, which could support adhesive embryo attachment. Movements of adults were higher during nighttime than daytime, with habitat preference for hard bottom habitats. Genetic evidence indicates that the sudden discovery of this population was unrelated to a hatchery release of several thousand juvenile sturgeon (Hudson River progeny) in 1997. The newly discovered population in the Nanticoke River exhibits a degree of resilience including multiple spawning regions and suitable spawning habitat. Still, critical vulnerabilities persist including curtailed habitat, continued agricultural and maritime development, invasive blue catfish, and a very small apparent population size.

Delaware, Maryland↗

USGS2000

Using structural equation modeling to investigate relationships among ecological variables

Structural equation modeling is an advanced multivariate statistical process with which a researcher can construct theoretical concepts, test their measurement reliability, hypothesize and test a theory about their relationships, take into account measurement errors, and consider both direct and indirect effects of variables on one another. Latent variables are theoretical concepts that unite phenomena under a single term, e.g., ecosystem health, environmental condition, and pollution (Bollen, 1989). Latent variables are not measured directly but can be expressed in terms of one or more directly measurable variables called indicators. For some researchers, defining, constructing, and examining the validity of latent variables may be the end task of itself. For others, testing hypothesized relationships of latent variables may be of interest. We analyzed the correlation matrix of eleven environmental variables from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program for Estuaries (EMAP-E) using methods of structural equation modeling. We hypothesized and tested a conceptual model to characterize the interdependencies between four latent variables-sediment contamination, natural variability, biodiversity, and growth potential. In particular, we were interested in measuring the direct, indirect, and total effects of sediment contamination and natural variability on biodiversity and growth potential. The model fit the data well and accounted for 81% of the variability in biodiversity and 69% of the variability in growth potential. It revealed a positive total effect of natural variability on growth potential that otherwise would have been judged negative had we not considered indirect effects. That is, natural variability had a negative direct effect on growth potential of magnitude -0.3251 and a positive indirect effect mediated through biodiversity of magnitude 0.4509, yielding a net positive total effect of 0.1258. Natural variability had a positive direct effect on biodiversity of magnitude 0.5347 and a negative indirect effect mediated through growth potential of magnitude -0.1105 yielding a positive total effects of magnitude 0.4242. Sediment contamination had a negative direct effect on biodiversity of magnitude -0.1956 and a negative indirect effect on growth potential via biodiversity of magnitude -0.067. Biodiversity had a positive effect on growth potential of magnitude 0.8432, and growth potential had a positive effect on biodiversity of magnitude 0.3398. The correlation between biodiversity and growth potential was estimated at 0.7658 and that between sediment contamination and natural variability at -0.3769.

Environmental and Ecological Statistics↗

USGS2016

Changes in habitat availability for outmigrating juvenile salmon (Oncorhychus spp.) following estuary restoration

The restoration of the Nisqually River Delta (Washington, U.S.A.) represents one of the largest efforts toward reestablishing the ecosystem function and resilience of modified habitat in the Puget Sound, particularly for anadromous salmonid species. The opportunity for outmigrating salmon to access and benefit from the expansion of available tidal habitat can be quantified by several physical attributes, which are related to the ecological and physiological responses of juvenile salmon. We monitored a variety of physical parameters to measure changes in opportunity potential from historic, pre-restoration, and post-restoration habitat conditions at several sites across the delta. These parameters included channel morphology, water quality, tidal elevation, and landscape connectivity. We conducted fish catch surveys across the delta to determine if salmon was utilizing restored estuary habitat. Overall major channel area increased 42% and major channel length increased 131% from pre- to post-restoration conditions. Furthermore, the results of our tidal inundation model indicated that major channels were accessible up to 75% of the time, as opposed to 30% pre-restoration. Outmigrating salmon utilized this newly accessible habitat as quickly as 1 year post-restoration. The presence of salmon in restored tidal channels confirmed rapid post-restoration increases in opportunity potential on the delta despite habitat quality differences between restored and reference sites.

Washington↗