Surveyor alpha-scattering data: Consistency with lunar origin of eucrites and howardites
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Natural resource managers are coping with rapid changes in both environmental conditions and ecosystems. Enabled by recent advances in data collection and assimilation, short-term ecological forecasting may be a powerful tool to help resource managers anticipate impending near-term changes in ecosystem conditions or dynamics. Managers may use the information in forecasts to minimize the adverse effects of ecological stressors and optimize the effectiveness of management actions. To explore the potential for ecological forecasting to enhance natural resource management, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) convened a workshop titled "Building Capacity for Applied Short-Term Ecological Forecasting" on May 29—31, 2019, with participants from several Federal agencies, including the Bureau of Land Management, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the National Park Service, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration as well as all mission areas within the USGS. Participants broadly agreed that short-term ecological forecasting—on the order of days to years into the future—has tremendous potential to improve the quality and timeliness of information available to guide resource management decisions. Participants considered how ecological forecasting could directly affect their agency missions and specified numerous critical tools for addressing natural resource management concerns in the 21st century that could be enhanced by ecological forecasting. Given this breadth of possible applications for forecast products, participants developed a repeatable framework for evaluating potential value of a forecast product for enhancing resource management. Applying that process to a large list of forecast ideas that were developed in a brainstorming session, participants identified a small set of promising forecast products that illustrate the value of ecological forecasting for informing resource management. Workshop outcomes also include insights about important likely obstacles and next steps. In particular, reliable production and delivery of operational ecological forecasts will require a sustained commitment by research agencies, in partnership with resource management agencies, to maintain and improve forecasting tools and capabilities.
In the last decade, aided by the high-resolution data and long-term monitoring by NASA’s Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) and other spacecraft, extensive evidence has emerged supporting the presence of abundant H2O ground ice throughout much of the mid-latitudes of Mars. Growing evidence indicates that much of this ice is relatively pure, exists within a few meters of the surface, and reaches lower latitudes than previously thought, potentially providing an accessible record of the recent climate and a large in situ resource for future human exploration of Mars. We are reaching the limits of currently available datasets, however, just as we are starting to unlock the climate record and determine the water resources contained within the Martian mid-latitudes. A comprehensive understanding of the nature of this ice would significantly enhance our understanding of Mars’ climate history and total water budget, as well as the effects of orbital/axial forcing on volatiles. In this regard, Mars is a testbed for comparative planetary climate studies, including for exoplanets; these studies are particularly valuable because Mars has many similarities to Earth but lacks the complicating effects of oceans and a biosphere, such that orbital/axial forcing dominates climate variability. Quantifying the volumes, distribution, and properties of the water ice are crucial for addressing two overarching questions in the next decade: 1. What climate record is preserved in mid-latitude ice deposits on Mars? 2. How accessible is the ice as a resource for future exploration? New missions will enable us to capitalize on the major discoveries of the last decade and take the next giant leap in the upcoming decade to address these questions.
The rise of neural networks has opened the door for automatic analysis of remote sensing data. A challenge to using this machinery for computational sustainability is the necessity of massive labeled data sets, which can be cost-prohibitive for many non-profit organizations. The primary motivation for this work is one such problem; the efficient management of invasive species -- invading flora and fauna that are estimated to cause damages in the billions of dollars annually. As an ongoing collaboration with the New York Natural Heritage Program, we consider the use of unsupervised deep learning techniques for dimensionality reduction of remote sensing images, which can reduce sample complexity for downstream tasks and decreases the need for large labeled data sets. We consider spatially augmenting contrastive learning by training neural networks to correctly classify two nearby patches of a landscape as such. We demonstrate that this approach improves upon previous methods and naive classification for a large-scale data set of remote sensing images derived from invasive species observations obtained over 30 years. Additionally, we simulate deployment in the field via active learning and evaluate this method on another important challenge in computational sustainability -- landcover classification -- and again find that it outperforms previous baselines.
This final report summarizes activities, outcomes, and lessons learned from a 3-year project titled “Climate Change Adaptation for Coastal National Wildlife Refuges” with the Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) and local partners in the surrounding South Carolina Lowcountry. The Lowcountry is classified as the 10-county area encompassing the coastal plain of South Carolina (this report specifically focuses on Berkeley, Charleston, and Georgetown Counties). The goals of this work, sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center (SECASC), were to foster active engagement with stakeholders; to develop a comprehensive definition of adaptation problems faced by agencies, organizations, and individuals near the Cape Romain NWR that accounts for global change, local values, knowledge and perceptions; and to encourage social learning and building of effective networks and trust across South Carolina Lowcountry organizations and individuals. Although project scoping began at the scale of the Atlantic seaboard, by engaging with NWRs from Massachusetts to Florida, participating refuge personnel eventually selected the Cape Romain NWR to serve as a case study for testing our goals. The Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Conservation was established to address global change impacts at a regional level and includes representation from Federal and State resource agencies, local conservation nongovernmental organizations, and organizations representing underserved community interests. Research topics, originating from discussions with Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Conservation members, focused on quantifying key drivers of change including localized sea-level rise (SLR) predictions, estimates of coastal hurricane inundation as amplified by SLR, and urban growth trends and forecasts. These key drivers provided a foundation to engage stakeholders in planning exercises to begin a process of collective understanding and collaborative decision making. The goal of this process was to develop collective strategies of adaptation to enhance community and ecosystem resilience in the South Carolina Lowcountry. South Carolina’s Lowcountry is experiencing rapid environmental and social transformation because of SLR rates approaching twice the global average, chronic tidal flooding and catastrophic storm surges, erosion and loss of habitats that provide essential services to wildlife and humans, and increasing social polarization fueled by aggressive low-density urban growth and other forms of land conversion. To support characterizations of plausible future scenarios, we used available or, in some cases, developed new models to project future conditions of key environmental and social-economic drivers. Because of the imprecision of mean global SLR projections, the SECASC commissioned a climatological study to account for local conditions and multiple representative concentration pathways to project a tailored distribution of future sea levels. These projections were matched to SLR scenarios provided by existing models to anticipate the range of future coastal habitat changes in the South Carolina Lowcountry. SLR scenarios were also incorporated into existing storm-surge models, which do not account for alternate baseline sea levels, to project the local effects of future hurricanes. To evaluate the extent and effects of population growth and urban expansion, we relied on an existing urban-growth model to map the spatial distribution of land-conversion probabilities, the total area of which is predicted to increase twofold to threefold over the next 60 years. In addition to this simplified model, an econometric model is in development to account for nonlinear feedback dynamics in land value, land use, and ecosystem service production. Although not yet completed, the goals of this model are to produce more-detailed projections of growth dynamics and to allow predictions of development patterns resulting from alternate land-use planning policies and incentives. Collaborative planning for an uncertain future requires more than providing decision makers with information on future physical and ecological conditions; developing effective and consensual strategies must also integrate sociological values, multiple cultural perspectives, and an understanding of human behavior. To support broad stakeholder engagement in integrative approaches to adaptation planning, emphasis was placed on the importance of considering differences in how individuals perceive their environment and create meaning. Because cultural frameworks form the basis for perceptions and, ultimately, the behaviors of individuals and institutions, we describe a model of human behavior and how it can be used to understand the effect of cultural complexity and variation in perception on choices, behavioral change, and long-term maintenance of behaviors. We consider a model commonly used in the field of behavioral health that accommodates variation in human perception when describing stages of behavior and the dynamics of behavioral change. Tailoring communication and engagement activities to targeted stakeholders is likely to benefit from increased understanding of behavioral change processes. The complex nature of this problem limited the usefulness of a traditional decision-analytic approach, we explored alternative methods for engagement, collaborative learning and decision making. Recognizing that project partners and Lowcountry stakeholders may be at different stages of preparedness and interest level for modifying behavior as a function of global change, we facilitated a scenario-planning exercise to familiarize partners with this well-established approach for communicating the opportunities and threats arising under alternative, plausible futures. We developed narratives for four alternative South Carolina Lowcountry scenarios to be used in later strategic planning that focus on quantitative trends for three primary drivers with high impact and high uncertainty: manifestations of climate change, social-political shifts at a global level, and forces of local value and power structures. This scenario-planning exercise underscored the complex relation between the temporospatial scale of the production of ecological goods and services and the institutional scale at which they are managed. We then guided the partners through an assessment of the relevant strengths and weaknesses of the Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Protection, using the threats and opportunities characterized by each scenario to understand how the partnership might respond when attempting to meet conservation and societal objectives. The partnership identified key strengths including partnership experience, outreach and technical capacities, a substantial conservation land base, and high social cohesion in the South Carolina Lowcountry. Limited communication expertise, institutional inertia, and insufficient staffing and funding were recognized as important weaknesses across the partnership. By examining and scoring combinations of internal strengths and weaknesses and external threats and opportunities, the partnership developed sets of prioritized strategies to consider in the context of a given scenario. Although we had insufficient time to examine all scenarios in detail, the intent was to identify a portfolio of strategic actions to address threats and opportunities represented in multiple plausible futures. Top-ranking strategies encompassed a range of actions that focused on strengthening the conservation community and communicating the benefits of nature (that is, ecosystem services) to leveraging partnerships to expand land protection. This report also details the methods and preliminary results of several models developed or applied in support of this project. Two parcel-selection algorithms were used to evaluate anticipated habitat changes and patterns of urban growth to guide decisions on optimal conservation reserve design to protect habitat communities. One approach used a widely available planning software (MARXAN) to maximize conservation benefits near the Cape Romain NWR, whereas the other approach was a novel application of economic theory to account for uncertainty in future conditions and for the risks of unanticipated habitat loss. This latter model applies modern portfolio theory to estimate the risk of investing in any portfolio of land parcels (that is, candidate “reserves”) under climate-change uncertainty by quantifying the variation and spatial correlation of conservation benefits derived from each portfolio. We expanded the range of actions beyond simply whether or not to invest in a set of land parcels, an approach commonly used in spatial conservation planning, to also include consideration of divestment from currently protected lands. Such refinements allow for better accounting of system dynamics and can evaluate the benefits of flexible conservation tools such as rolling easements. Model results were conditional on a decision maker’s risk tolerance but highlighted general strategies of land conservation to increase future habitat representation beyond what is expected under the current protected land base. We built models that may help inform coastal planning by estimating salinity dynamics and the performance of oyster reef restoration efforts to predict the combined effects of global change and management of freshwater flows on coastal habitats and the processes that contribute to their resilience. These models can support restoration decisions by evaluating the expected benefits of site locations for shoreline protection and fisheries production. Lastly, we developed a spatially explicit economic model that predicts feedback dynamics among land value, land-use change, and effects on ecosystem service provision to explore zoning policies and incentives on urban growth and ecosystem services. We summarize these efforts with insights and considerations for the Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Protection to continue to engage stakeholders in effective adaptation planning. First, notions of place attachment (referred to as sense of place), and the role of culture in social discourse are increasingly being used to understand the complex interactions between society and the environment and how societies respond and adapt to climate change. Sense of place was a unifying theme whenever the future of the South Carolina Lowcountry was discussed. The contribution of the South Carolina Lowcountry’s environmental wealth, rich cultural heritage, and quality of life to sense of place has important implications for how adaptation planning might best be pursued. More community-based governance of the commons (in other words, natural and cultural resources held in common), in which broad stakeholder participation and power sharing are key elements, is considered important. This devolution of governance is characterized by polycentric institutions and self-organizing social networks that promote a local culture of knowledge sharing, problem solving, and learning. These so-called bridging organizations (or individuals) often provide the leadership necessary to bring together potentially disparate Government agencies and institutions, private organizations, and individuals in a collective process of problem solving. Our observations also suggest that the conservation community in the South Carolina Lowcountry views its activities as integral to the broader governance of social-ecological systems, in which responses to the forces of global change are mediated through culture, economics, and politics. Rather than directly competing with other interests, the South Carolina Lowcountry conservation community seems to embrace an interpretation of conservation in which the fundamental objective is the quality of human life rather than environmental protection. Fundamental to the types of governance reforms described above is the notion of coproduction, in which experts and users collaborate to develop a shared body of knowledge. In this approach, scientists work with stakeholders to help frame questions, design research, and collect and analyze data. Such sustained collaborations are increasingly believed to be an effective way to produce useable (or actionable) science. The emphasis on social learning, leveraging strong social networks, coordinating and deliberating among diverse stakeholders, and applying principles of adaptive management is an essential contribution to adaptive capacity. The diverse and robust set of scientific approaches, methods to help stakeholders collaborate in effective and goal-driven planning processes, and decision tools resulting from this project hopefully will assist Cape Romain NWR and its partners prepare for climatic, ecological, and social changes over the coming decades.
The Undifferentiated Plains on Titan, first mapped by Lopes et al. (Lopes, R.M.C. et al., 2010. Icarus, 205, 540–588), are vast expanses of terrains that appear radar-dark and fairly uniform in Cassini Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images. As a result, these terrains are often referred to as “blandlands”. While the interpretation of several other geologic units on Titan – such as dunes, lakes, and well-preserved impact craters – has been relatively straightforward, the origin of the Undifferentiated Plains has remained elusive. SAR images show that these “blandlands” are mostly found at mid-latitudes and appear relatively featureless at radar wavelengths, with no major topographic features. Their gradational boundaries and paucity of recognizable features in SAR data make geologic interpretation particularly challenging. We have mapped the distribution of these terrains using SAR swaths up to flyby T92 (July 2013), which cover >50% of Titan’s surface. We compared SAR images with other data sets where available, including topography derived from the SARTopo method and stereo DEMs, the response from RADAR radiometry, hyperspectral imaging data from Cassini’s Visual and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS), and near infrared imaging from the Imaging Science Subsystem (ISS). We examined and evaluated different formation mechanisms, including (i) cryovolcanic origin, consisting of overlapping flows of low relief or (ii) sedimentary origins, resulting from fluvial/lacustrine or aeolian deposition, or accumulation of photolysis products created in the atmosphere. Our analysis indicates that the Undifferentiated Plains unit is consistent with a composition predominantly containing organic rather than icy materials and formed by depositional and/or sedimentary processes. We conclude that aeolian processes played a major part in the formation of the Undifferentiated Plains; however, other processes (fluvial, deposition of photolysis products) are likely to have contributed, possibly in differing proportions depending on location.
State-and-transition models (STMs) are useful tools for management, but they can be difficult to use and have limited content. STMs created for groups of related ecological sites could simplify and improve their utility. The amount of information linked to models can be increased using tables that communicate management interpretations and important within-group variability. We created a new web-based information system (the Ecosystem Dynamics Interpretive Tool) to house STMs, associated tabular information, and other ecological site data and descriptors. Fewer, more informative, better organized, and easily accessible STMs should increase the accessibility of science information.
The first annual meeting of the Geological Society of America (GSA) was held in 1888 in Ithaca, New York (Fairchild, 1932), but official Sections of GSA formed much later. During the spring of 1949, a symposium in Knoxville, Tennessee, on mineral resources of the southeastern United States became the catalyst for the creation of the Southeastern Section of the Geological Society of America (King, 1964), and the first annual meeting of the Southeastern Section was held in 1952 in Roanoke, Virginia (Wilson, 1954). The Northeastern Section formed much later, and its first annual meeting was held in 1966 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (Socolow, 1968). At all of these section meetings, field trips have been important venues for geologists and especially students to gather together, examine rocks in the field, and discuss ideas. These field trips have been especially important at combined section meetings because they provide settings for geologists who are experienced in one geographic region to examine and compare the geology of other regions. The first combined meeting of the Southeastern and Northeastern sections occurred in 1976 in Arlington, Virginia. Since then, the Southeastern and Northeastern sections have met together on numerous occasions, including 1982 in Washington, DC; 1991 in Baltimore, Maryland; 2004 in Tysons Corner, Virginia; and 2010 in Baltimore, Maryland. Since the first combined section meeting in 1976, there has been a gradual increase in the role of technology in geology field studies. In fact, during the past several decades there has been an increase in emphasis in our society on the instrumental component of science, the goal of which is operational techniques to do or control things, and a corresponding decrease in emphasis on the natural philosophy component of science, the goal of which is a greater understanding of the natural world (Dear, 2006). The modern education acronym STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics), for example, is often used as a catch-all term that implies that science and technology are relatively synonymous, and implies that greater technology leads automatically to greater understanding of the natural world. This assumption, however, is not always valid (Dear, 2006), and technology should not be promoted as a substitute for field experiences. Technology can be a tool that leads to greater understanding of the natural world, but not all Science uses technology as a means of providing greater understanding. The benefits of new technologies include: (1) data of greater resolution; and (2) greater efficiency of capturing, storing, and visualizing data. The risks of new technologies include: (1) an overabundance of data, some of which may be of little value; (2) less time available for analysis of data, if geologists become occupied primarily with capturing and storing data; and (3) errors that arise from complacency and the perception that field-checking may not be necessary. In other words, there is a risk that a glut of data and vast amounts of time devoted to the capturing and storing of data may result in a reduced interest and (or) willingness to field-check data. In the spirit of the early GSA section meetings, we feel that there are still enormous advantages to conducting geology field trips in conjunction with traditional meeting presentations and posters. In 2020, with this current combined Southeastern and Northeastern section meeting in Reston, Virginia, we have assembled eight different field trips that cover a wide range of territory in and around the Nation’s capital. These field trip localities include the immediate vicinity of Washington, DC, as well as various locations in nearby areas of Virginia, Maryland, and West Virginia. The physiographic provinces include Mesozoic Rift Basins, the Piedmont, the Blue Ridge, the Valley and Ridge, and the Allegheny Plateau of the Appalachian Basin. The field trip sites exhibit a wide range of igneous, metamorphic, and sedimentary rocks, as well as rocks with a wide range of geologic ages from the Mesoproterozoic to the Holocene. We hope that this guidebook provides new motivation for geologists to examine rocks in the field, to discuss ideas with colleagues in the field, and to avoid becoming complacent. The editors of this volume would like to thank the authors of the different field trip guides, the field trip leaders, and all of the reviewers who made suggestions for improving the field trip manuscripts. The editors would also like to thank Elle Derwent of GSA for her logistical help and guidance regarding the field trips, and April Leo and the staff of the GSA Publications Department for seeing this book through to publication.
The Earth Science Information System (ESIS) was developed in 1981 by the U.S. Geological Survey's Office of the Data Administrator. ESIS serves as a comprehensive data management facility designed to support the coordination, integration, and standardization of scientific, technical, and bibliographic data of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). ESIS provides, through an online interactive computer system, referral to information about USGS data bases, data elements which are fields in the records of data bases, and systems. The data bases contain information about many subjects from several scientific disciplines such as: geology, geophysics, geochemistry, hydrology, cartography, oceanography, geography, minerals exploration and conservation, and satellite data sensing.
A National Association of Geoscience Teachers Far Western Section (NAGT-FWS) field conference is an ideal forum for learning about the geology and natural history of the San Francisco Bay area. We visit classic field sites, renew old friendships, and make new ones. This collection of papers includes field guides and road logs for all of the Bay-area trips held during the NAGT-FWS 2001 Fall Field Conference and supplemental chapters on other aspects of the area’s natural and human history. The trips touch on many aspects of the geology and natural hazards of the Bay area, especially urban problems associated with living on an active tectonic plate margin: earthquake faults, coastal erosion, landslides, and the utilization of land and natural resources. We hope this conference not only provides a two-day learning opportunity for conference participants but that students and educators will use this field guidebook for future teaching and research. Many thanks are due to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and San José State University (SJSU) for cohosting the conference. We are grateful to each of the field trip leaders for preparing the trips and writing the accompanying guides. We especially appreciate the many hours put in by the guidebook reviewers, Robert I. Tilling (USGS) and Paula Messina (SJSU), and to the USGS Western Publications Group for editing, layout, and web posting. Additional guidebook contributions include articles by John Galloway, Scott Starratt, Page Mosier, and Susan Toussaint. During the conference guest speakers include Robert I. Tilling (USGS Volcano Hazards Team) and Ross Stein (USGS Earthquake Hazards Team). Workshops prepared for the conference include GIS in the classroom, using USGS data by John Vogel (USGS) and Paula Messina (SJSU), and The Best of BAESI (Bay Area Earth Science Institute), a teacher training organization under the direction of Ellen Metzger (SJSU) and Richard Sedlock (SJSU). The conference provides an opportunity to showcase USGS scientific and education resources with self-guided tours of the USGS Library, the Earth Science Information Center (ESIC), the Visitor Center, and various laboratories on the USGS campus and includes a half-day participatory tour of the USGS research vessel the R/V Polaris and the USGS Marine Facility at the Port of Redwood City under the direction of Cynthia L. Brown, Francis Parchaso, and Tara Schraga. Beyond the names mentioned above, a host of USGS and SJSU staff, SJSU students, and NAGT-FWS members contributed to the preparation and orchestration of the conference. We couldn’t have done it alone. Leslie C. Gordon (USGS), Philip W. Stoffer (USGS), and Deborah Harden (SJSU) NAGT-FWS 2001 Fall Field Conference Organizers.
In the 125 years since its creation, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has provided the science information needed to make vital decisions and safeguard society. In this anniversary year, we celebrate the mission that has guided us, the people and traditions that have shaped us, and the science and technology that will lead us into the future. Through a wealth of long-term data and research, we have served the needs of society, the Earth, and its environment. This Circular captures a few of our past achievements, current research efforts, and hopes and challenges for the future.
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center (SPCMSC) in Florida and the USGS Lower Mississippi-Gulf Water Science Center (LMG WSC) in Montgomery, Alabama, collaborated to gather alongshore terrestrial-based lidar beach elevation data at Fire Island, New York. This high-resolution elevation dataset was collected on June 11, 2014, to characterize beach topography and document ongoing beach evolution and recovery, and is part of the ongoing beach monitoring within the Hurricane Sandy Supplemental Project GS2-2B. This USGS data series includes the resulting processed elevation point data (xyz) and an interpolated digital elevation model (DEM).
This Surface Water Quality-Assurance Plan documents the standards, policies, and procedures used by the Kentucky Water Science Center for activities related to the collection, processing, storage, analysis, and publication of surface-water data.
In accordance with guidelines set forth by the Office of Water Quality in the Water Resources Discipline of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), a quality-assurance plan has been created for use by the USGS Montana Water Science Center in conducting water-quality activities. This quality-assurance plan documents the standards, policies, and procedures used by the USGS Montana Water Science Center for activities related to the collection, processing, storage, analysis, and publication of water-quality data. The policies and procedures presented in this quality-assurance plan for water-quality activities complement the quality-assurance plans for surface-water and ground-water activities and suspended-sediment analysis.
The Community for Data Integration (CDI) is a group that helps members grow their expertise on all aspects of working with scientific data. The CDI’s activities advance data and information integration capabilities in the U.S. Geological Survey and in the wider Earth and biological sciences. This annual report describes the presentations, activities, collaboration areas, workshop, and other CDI-sponsored events in fiscal year 2017. The report also describes the objectives of the 11 CDI-funded projects in fiscal year 2017. The report shows how the CDI activities fulfill the strategic objective of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Core Science Systems Mission Area to develop a workplace model for interdisciplinary science.
International alliances in space efforts have resulted in a more rapid diffusion of space technology. This, in turn, increases pressure on organizations to push forward with technological developments and to take steps to maximize their inclusion into the research and development (R&D) process and the overall advancement and enhancement of space technology. To cope with this vast and rapidly growing amount of data and information that is vital to the success of the innovation, the Information Management Committee (IMC) of the Research Technology Agency (RTA) developed the science, technology and research network (STARNET). The purpose of this network is to facilitate access to worldwide information elements in terms of science, technology and overall research. It provides a virtual library with special emphasis on international security; a "one stop" information resource for policy makers, program managers, scientists, engineers, researchers and others. ?? 2007 IEEE.
The US National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) was updated in 2023 for all 50 states using new science on seismicity, fault ruptures, ground motions, and probabilistic techniques to produce a standard of practice for public policy and other engineering applications (defined for return periods greater than ∼475 or less than ∼10,000 years). Changes in 2023 time-independent seismic hazard (both increases and decreases compared to previous NSHMs) are substantial because the new model considers more data and updated earthquake rupture forecasts and ground-motion components. In developing the 2023 model, we tried to apply best available or applicable science based on advice of co-authors, more than 50 reviewers, and hundreds of hazard scientists and end-users, who attended public workshops and provided technical inputs. The hazard assessment incorporates new catalogs, declustering algorithms, gridded seismicity models, magnitude-scaling equations, fault-based structural and deformation models, multi-fault earthquake rupture forecast models, semi-empirical and simulation-based ground-motion models, and site amplification models conditioned on shear-wave velocities of the upper 30 m of soil and deeper sedimentary basin structures. Seismic hazard calculations yield hazard curves at hundreds of thousands of sites, ground-motion maps, uniform-hazard response spectra, and disaggregations developed for pseudo-spectral accelerations at 21 oscillator periods and two peak parameters, Modified Mercalli Intensity, and 8 site classes required by building codes and other public policy applications. Tests show the new model is consistent with past ShakeMap intensity observations. Sensitivity and uncertainty assessments ensure resulting ground motions are compatible with known hazard information and highlight the range and causes of variability in ground motions. We produce several impact products including building seismic design criteria, intensity maps, planning scenarios, and engineering risk assessments showing the potential physical and social impacts. These applications provide a basis for assessing, planning, and mitigating the effects of future earthquakes.
We thank David Wald ( Wald, 2021 ; henceforth, W21) for his interest in our recent article ( Hough and Martin, 2021 ; henceforth, HM21). Although different perspectives are vital in science, we are concerned that W21 misrepresents HM21 as an oblique criticism of the U.S. Geological Survey “Did You Feel It?” (DYFI) system, calling for HM21 to be retracted. Readers who are interested in the issues raised by HM21 and the statements made by us therein are referred to that article. In this brief reply, we respond to specific accusations made by W21 and return to the focus of HM21, calling attention to the extent to which macroseismic data sets and inferences drawn from them can be shaped by a lack of representation among individuals whose observations are available to science. HM21 never questioned the benefits of the community science DYFI project to science. HM21 noted, however, and we reiterate here, that community science also potentially benefits the community. Whether or not it matters for science, if participation in community science projects is unrepresentative across socioeconomic groups, it underscores the need for the scientific community to be proactive in its efforts to reach out to groups that have been underserved by current outreach and education programs. We appreciate this opportunity to continue the important conversation about representation.