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At least 1,279 records · Page 71Linked to original sources
USGS2006

Climate scenarios for California

Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California’s climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways, and thus the IPCC has produced four “families” of emission scenarios. To explore some of these uncertainties, emissions scenarios A2 (a medium-high emissions) and B1 (low emissions) were selected from the current IPCC Fourth climate assessment, which provides several recent model simulations driven by A2 and B1 emissions. The global climate model simulations addressed here were from PCM1, the Parallel Climate Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) group, and CM2.1 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). As part of the scenarios assessment, a statistical technique using properties of historical weather data was employed to correct model biases and “downscale” the global-model simulation of future climates to a finer level of detail, onto a grid of approximately 7 miles (12 kilometers), which is more suitable for impact studies at the scales needed by California decision makers. In current climate-change simulations, temperatures over California warm significantly during the twenty-first century, with temperature increases from approximately +3ºF (1.5ºC) in the lower emissions scenario (B1) within the less responsive model (PCM1) to +8ºF (4.5ºC) in the higher emissions scenario (A2) within the more responsive model (CM2.1). Three of the simulations (all except the low-emission scenario run of the low-response model) exhibit more warming in summer than in winter. In all of the simulations, most precipitation continues to occur in winter, with virtually all derived from North Pacific winter storms. Relatively little change in overall precipitation is projected. Climate warming has a profound influence in diminishing snow accumulations, because there is more rain and less snow, and earlier snowmelt. These snow losses increase as the warming increases, so that they are most severe under climate changes projected by the more sensitive model with the higher GHG emissions.

California↗
USGS2016

Will it rise or will it fall? Managing the complex effects of urbanization on base flow

Sustaining natural levels of base flow is critical to maintaining ecological function as stream catchments are urbanized. Research shows a variable response of stream base flow to urbanization, with base flow or water tables rising in some locations, falling in others, or elsewhere remaining constant. The variable baseflow response is due to the array of natural (e.g., physiographic setting and climate) and anthropogenic (e.g., urban development and infrastructure) factors that influence hydrology. Perhaps as a consequence of this complexity, few simple tools exist to assist managers to predict baseflow change in their local urban area. This paper addresses this management need by presenting a decision support tool. The tool considers the natural vulnerability of the landscape, together with aspects of urban development in predicting the likelihood and direction of baseflow change. Where the tool identifies a likely increase or decrease it guides managers toward strategies that can reduce or increase groundwater recharge, respectively. Where the tool finds an equivocal result, it suggests a detailed water balance be performed. The decision support tool is embedded within an adaptive-management framework that encourages managers to define their ecological objectives, assess the vulnerability of their ecological objectives to changes in water table height, and monitor baseflow responses to urbanization. We trial our framework using two very different case studies: Perth, Western Australia, and Baltimore, Maryland, USA. Together, these studies show how pre-development water table height, climate and geology together with aspects of urban infrastructure (e.g., stormwater practices, leaky pipes) interact such that urbanization has overall led to rising base flow (Perth) and falling base flow (Baltimore). Greater consideration of subsurface components of the water cycle will help to protect and restore the ecology of urban freshwaters.

Maryland, Western Australia↗
USGS1998

Ground-water levels, predevelopment ground-water flow, and stream-aquifer relations in the vicinity of the Savannah River Site, Georgia and South Carolina

Ground-water levels, predevelopment ground-water flow, and stream-aquifer relations in the vicinity of the U.S. Department of Energy Savannah River Site, Georgia and South Carolina, were evaluated as part of a cooperative study between the U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Department of Energy, and Georgia Department of Natural Resources. As part of this evaluation: (1) ground-water-level fluctuations and trends in three aquifer systems in sediment of Cretaceous and Tertiary age were described and related to patterns of ground-water use and precipitations; (2) a conceptual model ofthe stream-aquifer flow system was developed; (3) the predevelopment ground-water flow system, configuration of potentiometric surfaces, trans-river flow, and recharge-discharge relations were described; and (4) stream-aquifer relations and the influence of river incision on ground-water flow and stream-aquifer relations were described. The 5,147-square mile study area is located in the northern part of the Coastal Plain physiographic province of Georgia and South Carolina. Coastal Plain sediments comprise three aquifer systems consisting of seven aquifers that are separated hydraulically by confining units. The aquifer systems are, in descending order: (1) the Floridan aquifer system—consisting of the Upper Three Runs and Gordon aquifers in sediments of Eocene age; (2) the Dublin aquifer system—consisting of the Millers Pond, upper Dublin, and lower Dublin aquifers in sediments of Paleocene-Late Cretaceous age; and (3) the Midville aquifer system—consisting of the upper Midville and lower Midville aquifers in sediments of Late Cretaceous age. The Upper Three Runs aquifer is the shallowest aquifer and is unconfined to semi-confined throughout most of the study area. Ground-water levels in the Upper Three Runs aquifer respond to a local flow system and are affected mostly by topography and climate. Ground-water flow in the deeper, Gordon aquifer and Dublin and Midville aquifer systems is characterized by local flow near outcrop areas to the north, changing to intermediate flow and then regional flow downdip (southeastward) as the aquifers become more deeply buried. Water levels in these deeper aquifers show a pronounced response to topography and climate in the vicinity of outcrops, and diminish southeastward where the aquifer is more deeply buried. Stream stage and pumpage affect ground-water levels in these deeper aquifers to varying degrees throughout the study area. The geologic characteristics of the Savannah River alluvial valley substantially control the configuration of potentiometric surfaces, ground-water-flow directions, and stream-aquifer relations. Data from 18 shallow borings indicate incision into each aquifer by the paleo Savannah River channel and subsequent infill of permeable alluvium, allowing for direct hydraulic connection between aquifers and the Savannah River along parts of its reach. This hydraulic connection may be the cause of large ground-water discharge to the river near Jackson, S.C., where the Gordon aquifer is in contact with Savannah River alluvium, and also the cause of lows or depressions formed in the potentiometric surfaces of confined aquifers that are in contact with the alluvium. Ground water in these aquifers flows toward the depressions. The influence of the river is diminished downstream where the aquifers are deeply buried, and upstream and downstream ground-water flow is possibly separated by a water divide or "saddle". Water-level data indicate that saddle features probably exist in the Gordon aquifer and Dublin aquifer system, and also might be present in the Midville aquifer system. Ground-water levels respond seasonally or in long term to changes in precipitation, evapotranspiration, pumpage, and river stage. Continuous water-level data and water-levels measured in a network of 271 wells during the Spring (May) and Fall (October) in 1992, indicate that seasonal water-level changes generally are less than 4 feet, and that larger changes occur near supply wells. Long-term data (more than 10 years of record) from 283 wells indicate that water levels in most aquifers declined during some period prior to 1993. Although most declines were less than 15 feet and were limited to scattered areas influenced by supply wells, widespread declines of as much as 59 feet occurred in the lower Midville aquifer in Richmond County, Georgia. Water-level data at well-cluster sites indicate that in the vicinity of major ground-water divides, head decreases with depth; and in the vicinity of a regional drain, such as the Savannah River, head increases with depth. Although this vertical head distribution holds true over much of the study area, water-level data indicate that the Gordon, Millers Pond, and lower Dublin aquifers are apparent hydrologic "sinks" in parts of the study area, indicating a potential for vertical leakage from both above and below. Reasons for anomalously low heads in these three aquifers are unclear, but probably are related to: (1) subsurface pinchout of the aquifer, that influences flow patterns in the ground-water flow system, (2) hydraulic connection of the aquifer to river alluvium and associated large ground-water discharge, or (3) water-level declines as a result of pumpage. Estimated average ground-water discharge to the Savannah River based on data from 1941, 1942, and 1949, was 1,220 cubic feet per second; of which 46 percent was from the local flow system, 41 percent was from the intermediate flow system, and 13 percent was from the regional flow system. Estimated ground-water discharge during the 1954 and 1986 droughts indicates that the contribution from the intermediate flow system decreased in a downstream direction, and that most ground-water discharge was from the local flow system. The decreased contribution from the intermediate flow system in downstream reaches may be related to a downdip (downstream) thickening of confining units underlying the stream, that reduces upward leakage of water. Flow lines based on contours of the estimated predevelopment potentiometric surface of the confined Dublin and Midville aquifer systems, suggest ground-water flow beneath the floodplain of the Savannah River from one side of the river to the other side. This phenomenon, termed trans-river flow, is assumed to occur for a short distance into Georgia prior to discharge into the Savannah River alluvial valley. Trans-river flow is influenced by changes in hydraulic gradient (ground-water levels) near the river. Trans-river flow cannot be inferred from contours of the potentiometric surface of the Gordon or Upper Three Runs aquifers.

Georgia, South Carolina↗
USGS2006

Altered behavior in spotted hyenas associated with increased human activity

To investigate how anthropogenic activity might affect large carnivores, we studied the behaviour of spotted hyenas ( Crocuta crocuta ) during two time periods. From 1996 to 1998, we documented the ecological correlates of space utilization patterns exhibited by adult female hyenas defending a territory at the edge of a wildlife reserve in Kenya. Hyenas preferred areas near dense vegetation but appeared to avoid areas containing the greatest abundance of prey, perhaps because these were also the areas of most intensive livestock grazing. We then compared hyena behaviour observed in 1996–98 with that observed several years earlier and found many differences. Female hyenas in 1996–98 were found farther from dens, but closer to dense vegetation and to the edges of their territory, than in 1988–90. Recent females also had larger home ranges, travelled farther between consecutive sightings, and were more nocturnal than in 1988–90. Finally, hyenas occurred in smaller groups in 1996–98 than in 1988–90. We also found several changes in hyena demography between periods. We next attempted to explain differences observed between time periods by testing predictions of hypotheses invoking prey abundance, climate, interactions with lions, tourism and livestock grazing. Our data were consistent with the hypothesis that increased reliance on the reserve for livestock grazing was responsible for observed changes. That behavioural changes were not associated with decreased hyena population density suggests the behavioural plasticity typical of this species may protect it from extinction.

Animal Conservation↗
USGS2014

Remote sensing analysis of riparian vegetation response to desert marsh restoration in the Mexican Highlands

Desert marshes, or cienegas, are extremely biodiverse habitats imperiled by anthropogenic demands for water and changing climates. Given their widespread loss and increased recognition, remarkably little is known about restoration techniques. In this study, we examine the effects of gabions (wire baskets filled with rocks used as dams) on vegetation in the Cienega San Bernardino, in the Arizona, Sonora portion of the US-Mexico border, using a remote-sensing analysis coupled with field data. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), used here as a proxy for plant biomass, is compared at gabion and control sites over a 27-year period during the driest months (May/June). Over this period, green-up occurred at most sites where there were gabions and at a few of the control sites where gabions had not been constructed. When we statistically controlled for differences among sites in source area, stream order, elevation, and interannual winter rainfall, as well as comparisons of before and after the initiation of gabion construction, vegetation increased around gabions yet did not change (or decreased) where there were no gabions. We found that NDVI does not vary with precipitation inputs prior to construction of gabions but demonstrates a strong response to precipitation after the gabions are built. Field data describing plant cover, species richness, and species composition document increases from 2000 to 2012 and corroborate reestablished biomass at gabions. Our findings validate that gabions can be used to restore riparian vegetation and potentially ameliorate drought conditions in a desert cienega.

Ecological Engineering↗
USGS2025

Hotter temperatures alter riparian plant outcomes under regulated river conditions

Climate change and river regulation alter environmental controls on riparian plant occurrence and cover worldwide. Simultaneous changes to river flow and air temperature could result in unanticipated plant responses to novel environmental conditions. Increasing temperature could alter riparian plant response to hydrology and other factors, while river regulation may exacerbate environmental stress through novel flows like those resulting from power generation. Further, plant establishment and growth may require differing conditions, which may be decoupled by novel conditions. Using a large dataset that spans a natural 5°C mean annual temperature (MAT) gradient and a Bayesian model that integrates plant occurrence and cover, we address four questions: (1) Does hotter MAT modify plant response to hydrology, substrate composition, topography, and cover of co-occurring plant species? (2) Does the timing of hydropower tides benefit some species over others? (3) Does dam-induced erosion hinder riparian species more than upland species? (4) Do occurrence and cover respond to different environmental variables, allowing for decoupling of life history processes? We addressed these questions with data collected along 364 km of the Colorado River downstream of Glen Canyon Dam, Arizona, United States of America. Occurrence and cover class were recorded in >10,000 plots from 2016 to 2020, along with environmental covariates that repeat across the climate gradient. For 36 species, plant occurrence and cover were modeled with respect to MAT, hydrology, substrate, topography, other plant cover, and their interactions with MAT. There were four key results. (1) Increasing MAT will not only directly influence plants but will mediate their responses to the environment, including greater dependence on stable water supplies. (2) The timing of hydropower tides shapes plant community composition. (3) Dam-related erosion has an outsized effect on riparian species, which could lead to a loss of regionally unique plant species. (4) For all species, the most important covariates driving occurrence differed from those for cover, suggesting the potential for these life stages to be decoupled. Not only will climate change and river regulation independently alter plant distributions, interactions among hotter temperature, dam-controlled flow patterns, and limited fine sediments will determine which species flourish or perish under future conditions.

Arizona↗
USGS2010

History of the Greenland Ice Sheet: paleoclimatic insights

Paleoclimatic records show that the GreenlandIce Sheet consistently has lost mass in response to warming, and grown in response to cooling. Such changes have occurred even at times of slow or zero sea-level change, so changing sea level cannot have been the cause of at least some of the ice-sheet changes. In contrast, there are no documented major ice-sheet changes that occurred independent of temperature changes. Moreover, snowfall has increased when the climate warmed, but the ice sheet lost mass nonetheless; increased accumulation in the ice sheet's center has not been sufficient to counteract increased melting and flow near the edges. Most documented forcings and ice-sheet responses spanned periods of several thousand years, but limited data also show rapid response to rapid forcings. In particular, regions near the ice margin have responded within decades. However, major changes of central regions of the ice sheet are thought to require centuries to millennia. The paleoclimatic record does not yet strongly constrain how rapidly a major shrinkage or nearly complete loss of the ice sheet could occur. The evidence suggests nearly total ice-sheet loss may result from warming of more than a few degrees above mean 20th century values, but this threshold is poorly defined (perhaps as little as 2 °C or more than 7 °C). Paleoclimatic records are sufficiently sketchy that the ice sheet may have grown temporarily in response to warming, or changes may have been induced by factors other than temperature, without having been recorded.

Greenland Ice Sheet↗
USGS2015

Incorporating climate change projections into riparian restoration planning and design

Climate change and associated changes in streamflow may alter riparian habitats substantially in coming decades. Riparian restoration provides opportunities to respond proactively to projected climate change effects, increase riparian ecosystem resilience to climate change, and simultaneously address effects of both climate change and other human disturbances. However, climate change may alter which restoration methods are most effective and which restoration goals can be achieved. Incorporating climate change into riparian restoration planning and design is critical to long-term restoration of desired community composition and ecosystem services. In this review, we discuss and provide examples of how climate change might be incorporated into restoration planning at the key stages of assessing the project context, establishing restoration goals and design criteria, evaluating design alternatives, and monitoring restoration outcomes. Restoration planners have access to numerous tools to predict future climate, streamflow, and riparian ecology at restoration sites. Planners can use those predictions to assess which species or ecosystem services will be most vulnerable under future conditions, and which sites will be most suitable for restoration. To accommodate future climate and streamflow change, planners may need to adjust methods for planting, invasive species control, channel and floodplain reconstruction, and water management. Given the considerable uncertainty in future climate and streamflow projections, riparian ecological responses, and effects on restoration outcomes, planners will need to consider multiple potential future scenarios, implement a variety of restoration methods, design projects with flexibility to adjust to future conditions, and plan to respond adaptively to unexpected change.

Ecohydrology↗
USGS2017

Evidence for a climate-induced ecohydrological state shift in wetland ecosystems of the southern Prairie Pothole Region

Changing magnitude, frequency, and timing of precipitation can influence aquatic-system hydrological, geochemical, and biological processes, in some cases resulting in system-wide shifts to an alternate state. Since the early 1990s, the southern Prairie Pothole Region has been subjected to an extended period of increased wetness resulting in marked changes to aquatic systems defining this region. We explored numerous lines of evidence to identify: (1) how the recent wet period compared to historical variability, (2) hydrological, geochemical, and biological responses, and (3) how these responses might represent a state shift in the region’s wetland ecosystems. We analyzed long-term climate records and compared how different hydrological variables responded in this wet period compared to decades before the observed shift. Additionally, we used multi-decadal records of waterfowl population and subsurface tile drain records to explore wildlife and human responses to a shifting climate. Since 1993, a novel precipitation regime corresponded with increased pond numbers, ponded-water depths, lake levels, stream flows, groundwater heights, soil-moisture, waterfowl populations, and installation of subsurface tile drains in agricultural fields. These observed changes reflect an alteration in water storage and movement across the landscape that in turn has altered solute sources and concentrations of prairie-pothole wetlands and has increased pond permanence. Combined, these changes represent significant evidence for a state shift in the ecohydrological functioning of the region’s wetland ecosystems, a shift that may require a significant refinement of the previously developed “wetland continuum” concept.

Prairie Pothole Region↗
USGS2009

Late Devonian glacigenic and associated facies from the central Appalachian Basin, eastern United States

Late Devonian strata in the eastern United States are generally considered as having been deposited under warm tropical conditions. However, a stratigraphically restricted Late Devonian succession of diamictite- mudstonesandstone within the Spechty Kopf and Rockwell Formations that extends for more than 400 km along depositional strike within the central Appalachian Basin may indicate other wise. This lithologic association unconformably overlies the Catskill Formation, where a 3- to 5-m-thick interval of deformed strata occurs immediately below the diamictite strata. The diamictite facies consists of several subfacies that are interpreted to be subglacial, englacial, supraglacial meltout, and resedimented deposits. The mudstone facies that overlies the diamictite consists of subfacies of chaotically bedded, clast-poor mudstone, and laminated mudstone sub facies that represent subaqueous proximal debris flows and distal glaciolacustrine rhythmites or varvites, respectively. The pebbly sandstone facies is interpreted as proglacial braided outwash deposits that both preceded glacial advance and followed glacial retreat. Both the tectonic and depositional frameworks suggest that the facies were deposited in a terrestrial setting within the Appalachian foreland basin during a single glacial advance and retreat. Regionally, areas that were not covered by ice were subject to increased rainfall as indicated by wet-climate paleosols. River systems eroded deeper channels in response to sea-level drop during glacial advance. Marine facies to the west contain iceborne dropstone boulders preserved within contemporaneous units of the Cleveland Shale Member of the Ohio Shale.The stratigraphic interval correlative with sea-level drop, climate change, and glacigenic succession represents one of the Appalachian Basin's most prolific oil-and gas-producing intervals and is contemporaneous with a global episode of sea-level drop responsible for the deposition of the Hangenberg Shale/Sandstone of Europe. This interval records the Hangenberg biotic crisis near the Devonian-Carboniferous boundary. ?? 2009 Geological Society of America.

Geological Society of America Bulletin↗
USGS2023

Potential effects of climate change on Appalachian stoneflies ( Remenus kirchneri , Acroneuria kosztarabi , and Tallaperla lobata )

Plecoptera (stoneflies) are an order of insects where most species rely on clean, fast-moving freshwater for an aquatic larval stage followed by a short terrestrial adult stage. Most species of Plecoptera seem to be restricted to specific stream types and thermal regimes. Climate-driven changes are likely to alter stream temperatures and flow, resulting in physiological stress, reduced reproductive success, and possibly latitudinal or elevational distribution shifts. This report focuses on climate projections and the resulting ecological effect for three species of Appalachian stoneflies: Remenus kirchneri , Acroneuria kosztarabi , and Tallaperla lobata . Although species-specific information is sparse for these three species, climate studies for other Plecoptera spp. are applicable. In the focal region, temperature is increasing and likely leading to increased stream temperatures. In response, Plecoptera spp. will likely experience physiological stress from increasing metabolic rates and energy demands concurrent with changing food quality and access. Warming temperatures and decreased larval energy stores are likely to contribute to lower adult body size and longevity, thus decreasing reproductive success. Whereas projected changes to precipitation and runoff are less certain, under drier future climate projections, decreased streamflow may further stress larval Plecoptera. Remenus kirchneri , A. kosztarabi , and T. lobata will likely retain stable permanent stream habitats for the analyzed future (2006–99). Changing climate is of particular concern for mountaintop species R. kirchneri and T. lobata because they may be unable to track shifts in suitable climate and habitat.

North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia↗
USGS2011

Statistical models of temperature in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta under climate-change scenarios and ecological implications

Changes in water temperatures caused by climate change in California's Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta will affect the ecosystem through physiological rates of fishes and invertebrates. This study presents statistical models that can be used to forecast water temperature within the Delta as a response to atmospheric conditions. The daily average model performed well ( R 2 values greater than 0.93 during verification periods) for all stations within the Delta and San Francisco Bay provided there was at least 1 year of calibration data. To provide long-term projections of Delta water temperature, we forced the model with downscaled data from climate scenarios. Based on these projections, the ecological implications for the delta smelt, a key species, were assessed based on temperature thresholds. The model forecasts increases in the number of days above temperatures causing high mortality (especially along the Sacramento River) and a shift in thermal conditions for spawning to earlier in the year.

California↗
USGS2019

Influences of potential oil and gas development and future climate on Sage-grouse declines and redistribution

Multiple environmental stressors impact wildlife populations, but we often know little about their cumulative and combined influences on population outcomes. We generally know more about past effects than potential future impacts, and direct influences such as changes of habitat footprints than indirect, long-term responses in behavior, distribution, or abundance. Yet, an understanding of all these components is needed to plan for future landscapes that include human activities and wildlife. We developed a case study to assess how spatially explicit individual-based modeling could be used to evaluate future population outcomes of gradual landscape change from multiple stressors. For Greater Sage-grouse in southwest Wyoming, USA, we projected oil and gas development footprints and climate-induced vegetation changes 50 years into the future. Using a time-series of planned oil and gas development and predicted climate-induced changes in vegetation, we recalculated habitat selection maps to dynamically modify future habitat quantity, quality, and configuration. We simulated long-term Sage-grouse responses to habitat change by allowing individuals to adjust to shifts in habitat availability and quality. The use of spatially explicit individual-based modeling offered a useful means of evaluating delayed indirect impacts of landscape change on wildlife population outcomes. The inclusion of movement and demographic responses to oil and gas infrastructure resulted in substantive changes in distribution and abundance when cumulated over several decades and throughout the regional population. When combined, additive development and climate-induced vegetation changes reduced abundance by up to half of the original size. In our example, the consideration of only a single population stressor the final possible population size by as much as 50%. Multiple stressors and their cumulative impacts need to be broadly considered through space and time to avoid underestimating the impacts of multiple gradual changes and overestimating the ability of populations to withstand change.

Wyoming↗
USGS2023

Identifying mechanisms underlying individual body size increases in a changing, highly seasonal environment: The growing trout of West Brook

As air temperature increases, it has been suggested that smaller individual body size may be a general response to climate warming. However, for ectotherms inhabiting cold, highly seasonal environments, warming temperatures may increase the scope for growth and result in larger body size. In a long-term study of individual brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis and brown trout Salmo trutta inhabiting a small stream network, individual lengths increased over the course of 15 years. As size-selective gains and losses to the population acted to reduce body sizes and mean body size at first tagging in the autumn (<60 mm) were not observed to change substantially over time, the increase in body size was best explained by higher individual growth rates. For brook trout, increasing water temperatures during the spring (when both trout species accomplish most of their total annual growth) was the primary driver of growth rate for juvenile fish and the environmental factor which best explained increases in individual body size over time. For brown trout, by contrast, reduction in and subsequent elimination of juvenile Atlantic salmon Salmo salar midway through the study period explained most of the increases in juvenile growth and body size. In addition to these major trends, a considerable amount of interannual variation in trout growth and body size was explained by other abiotic (stream flow) and biotic (population density) factors with the direction and magnitude of these effects differing by season, age-class and species. For example, stream flow was the dominant growth rate driver for adult fish with strong positive effects in the summer and autumn, but flow variation could not explain increases in body size as we observed no trend in flow. Overall, our work supports the general contention that for high-latitude ectotherms, increasing spring temperatures associated with a warming climate can result in increased growth and individual body size (up to a point), but context-dependent change in other factors can substantially contribute to both interannual variation and longer-term effects.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2011

Interhemispheric ice-sheet synchronicity during the last glacial maximum

The timing of the last maximum extent of the Antarctic ice sheets relative to those in the Northern Hemisphere remains poorly understood. We develop a chronology for the Weddell Sea sector of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet that, combined with ages from other Antarctic ice-sheet sectors, indicates that the advance to and retreat from their maximum extent was within dating uncertainties synchronous with most sectors of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. Surface climate forcing of Antarctic mass balance would probably cause an opposite response, whereby a warming climate would increase accumulation but not surface melting. Our new data support teleconnections involving sea-level forcing from Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and changes in North Atlantic deep-water formation and attendant heat flux to Antarctic grounding lines to synchronize the hemispheric ice sheets.

Science↗
USGS2010

Developing an ecosystem services online decision support tool to assess the impacts of climate change and urban growth in the Santa Cruz watershed: Where we live, work, and play

Using respective strengths of the biological, physical, and social sciences, we are developing an online decision support tool, the Santa Cruz Watershed Ecosystem Portfolio Model (SCWEPM), to help promote the use of information relevant to water allocation and land management in a binational watershed along the U.S.-Mexico border. The SCWEPM will include an ES valuation system within a suite of linked regional driver-response models and will use a multicriteria scenario-evaluation framework that builds on GIS analysis and spatially-explicit models that characterize important ecological, economic, and societal endpoints and consequences that are sensitive to climate patterns, regional water budgets, and regional LULC change in the SCW.

Arizona↗
USGS2016

Decadal shifts in grass and woody plant cover are driven by prolonged drying and modified by topo‐edaphic properties

Woody plant encroachment and overall declines in perennial vegetation in dryland regions can alter ecosystem properties and indicate land degradation, but the causes of these shifts remain controversial. Determining how changes in the abundance and distribution of grass and woody plants are influenced by conditions that regulate water availability at a regional scale provides a baseline to compare how management actions alter the composition of these vegetation types at a more local scale and can be used to predict future shifts under climate change. Using a remote‐sensing‐based approach, we assessed the balance between grasses and woody plants and how climate and topo‐edaphic conditions affected their abundances across the northern Sonoran Desert from 1989 to 2009. Despite widespread woody plant encroachment in this region over the last 150 years, we found that leguminous trees, including mesquite ( Prosopis spp.), declined in cover in areas with prolonged drying conditions during the early 21st century. Creosote bush ( Larrea tridentata ) also had moderate decreases with prolonged drying but was buffered from changes on soils with low clay that promote infiltration and high available water capacity that allows for retention of water at depth. Perennial grasses have expanded and contracted over the last two decades in response to summer precipitation and were especially dynamic on shallow soils with high clay that have large fluctuations in water availability. Our results suggest that topo‐edaphic properties can amplify or ameliorate climate‐induced changes in woody plants and perennial grasses. Understanding these relationships has important implications for ecosystem function under climate change in the southwestern USA and can inform management efforts to regulate grass and woody plant abundances.

Arizona↗
USGS1989

Effects of variations in recharge on groundwater quality

The predominant regional effect of recharge on municipal groundwater quality in Kansas is the dilution of mineralized water in aquifers with relatively shallow water tables. The individual dissolved constituents contributing most to the water-quality variations are sulfate and chloride, and the calcium and sodium accompanying them, which are derived from the dissolution of evaporite minerals within the aquifer or from saline formation water in bedrock underlying the aquifer. The relationship between recharge and groundwater-quality variation can be quantified by associating certain climatic indices, especially the Palmer Drought Index, with quality observations. The response time of the maximum water-quality change relative to the occurrence of drought or substantial recharge ranges from a month to 3 years depending on the aquifer characteristics, and is generally proportional to the saturated thickness and specific yield. The response time is also affected by discharge to and recharge from nearby streams and by the well construction, particularly the placement of the screened interval, and pumping stress.

Journal of Hydrology↗