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USGS2008

Estimated Probability of Post-Wildfire Debris-Flow Occurrence and Estimated Volume of Debris Flows from a Pre-Fire Analysis in the Three Lakes Watershed, Grand County, Colorado

Debris flows pose substantial threats to life, property, infrastructure, and water resources. Post-wildfire debris flows may be of catastrophic proportions compared to debris flows occurring in unburned areas. During 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District, initiated a pre-wildfire study to determine the potential for post-wildfire debris flows in the Three Lakes watershed, Grand County, Colorado. The objective was to estimate the probability of post-wildfire debris flows and to estimate the approximate volumes of debris flows from 109 subbasins in the Three Lakes watershed in order to provide the Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District with a relative measure of which subbasins might constitute the most serious debris flow hazards. This report describes the results of the study and provides estimated probabilities of debris-flow occurrence and the estimated volumes of debris flow that could be produced in 109 subbasins of the watershed under an assumed moderate- to high-burn severity of all forested areas. The estimates are needed because the Three Lakes watershed includes communities and substantial water-resources and water-supply infrastructure that are important to residents both east and west of the Continental Divide. Using information provided in this report, land and water-supply managers can consider where to concentrate pre-wildfire planning, pre-wildfire preparedness, and pre-wildfire mitigation in advance of wildfires. Also, in the event of a large wildfire, this information will help managers identify the watersheds with the greatest post-wildfire debris-flow hazards.

Scientific Investigations Map↗

USGS2014

Concentrations, loads, and yields of total nitrogen and total phosphorus in the Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor watershed, New Jersey, 1989-2011, at multiple spatial scales

Concentrations, loads, and yields of nutrients (total nitrogen and total phosphorus) were calculated for the Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor (BB-LEH) watershed for 1989–2011 at annual and seasonal (growing and nongrowing) time scales. Concentrations, loads, and yields were calculated at three spatial scales: for each of the 81 subbasins specified by 14-digit hydrologic unit codes (HUC-14s); for each of the three BB-LEH watershed segments, which coincide with segmentation of the BB-LEH estuary; and for the entire BB-LEH watershed. Base-flow and runoff values were calculated separately and were combined to provide total values. Available surface-water-quality data for all streams in the BB-LEH watershed for 1980–2011 were compiled from existing datasets and quality assured. Precipitation and streamflow data were used to distinguish between water-quality samples that were collected during base-flow conditions and those that were collected during runoff conditions. Base-flow separation of hydrographs of six streams in the BB-LEH watershed indicated that base flow accounts for about 72 to 94 percent of total flow in streams in the watershed. Base-flow mean concentrations (BMCs) of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) for each HUC-14 subbasin were calculated from relations between land use and measured base-flow concentrations. These relations were developed from multiple linear regression models determined from water-quality data collected at sampling stations in the BB-LEH watershed under base-flow conditions and land-use percentages in the contributing drainage basins. The total watershed base-flow volume was estimated for each year and season from continuous streamflow records for 1989–2011 and relations between precipitation and streamflow during base-flow conditions. For each year and season, the base-flow load and yield were then calculated for each HUC-14 subbasin from the BMCs, total base-flow volume, and drainage area. The watershed-loading application PLOAD was used to calculate runoff concentrations, loads, and yields of TN and TP at the HUC-14 scale. Flow-weighted event-mean concentrations (EMCs) for runoff were developed for each major land-use type in the watershed using storm sampling data from four streams in the BB-LEH watershed and three streams outside the watershed. The EMCs were developed separately for the growing and nongrowing seasons, and were typically greater during the growing season. The EMCs, along with annual and seasonal precipitation amounts and percent imperviousness associated with land-use types, were used as inputs to PLOAD to calculate annual and seasonal runoff concentrations, loads, and yields at the HUC-14 scale. Over the period of study (1989–2011), total surface-water loads (base flow plus runoff) for the entire BB-LEH watershed for TN ranged from about 455,000 kilograms (kg) as N (1995) to 857,000 kg as N (2010). For TP, total loads for the watershed ranged from about 17,000 (1995) to 32,000 kg as P (2010). On average, the north segment accounted for about 66 percent of the annual TN load and 63 percent of the annual TP load, and the central and south segments each accounted for less than 20 percent of the nutrient loads. Loads and yields were strongly associated with precipitation patterns, ensuing hydrologic conditions, and land use. HUC-14 subbasins with the highest yields of nutrients are concentrated in the northern part of the watershed, and have the highest percentages of urban or agricultural land use. Subbasins with the lowest TN and TP yields are dominated by forest cover. Percentages of turf (lawn) cover and nonturf cover were estimated for the watershed. Of the developed land in the watershed, nearly one quarter (24.9 percent) was mapped as turf cover. Because there is a strong relation between percent turf and percent developed land, percent turf in the watershed typically increases with percent development, and the amount of development can be considered a reasonable predictor of the amount of turf cover in the watershed. In the BB-LEH watershed, calculated concentrations of TN and TP were greater for developed–turf areas than for developed–nonturf areas, which, in turn, were greater than those for undeveloped areas.

New Jersey↗

USGS2019

Tracking phosphorus and sediment sources and transport from fields and channels in Great Lakes Restoration Initiative priority watersheds

A multi-agency, integrated series of studies were initiated in 2017 under the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) by the U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Forest Service, and the University of Minnesota to quantify the source, downstream travel time, and storage of particulate-bound phosphorus and sediment in agricultural tributaries to the Great Lakes. Of particular interest are contributions at the edge of field, channels, and riparian corridors. Results will be used to help identify upland and stream conservation practices that may reduce phosphorus and sediment inputs to the Great Lakes. The two study watersheds are the 50 km2 Black Creek in the Maumee River basin (Lake Erie) and the 90 km2 Plum Creek in the Lower Fox River basin (Lake Michigan). As part of other GLRI work, Black Creek and Plum Creek have existing, nested, edge-of-field studies in addition to phosphorus and sediment monitoring stations along their mainstems. Sediment-source tracking provides a direct method to quantify suspended sediment, and consequently phosphorus, sources by identifying a minimal set of properties (or fingerprint) that uniquely defines each source of sediment in the basin. This fingerprint can then be used to apportion sources of sediment from agricultural fields as well as other uplands including developed areas, forests, and pastures. These methods can also help distinguish sediment from ditches, ravines and eroding slopes, and streambanks. Multiple tracking methods are being used and adapted for best results in these watersheds, including a suite of trace elements for overall source apportionment in addition to short-term fallout radionuclides beryllium-7 (7Be) and lead-210 (210Pb) for high-flow event-based transport on fields and in stream channels. Tile drain connectivity to the surface is also of interest, especially in the Black Creek watershed. Preliminary results from the overall source apportionment from analyses of streambed sediment and monthly suspended sediment in Plum Creek indicate that the proportion attributed to different land cover varied by season and events. Further data analyses are being conducted for examining event-based pathways on individual fields, while most basin-wide sampling was monthly. Results from both watersheds will help describe the variations in transport of particulate-bound phosphorus across both steep and gentle landscapes representative of the Great Lakes basin. (this is from IP-101450)

Great Lakes↗

USGS2012

An at-grade stabilization structure impact on runoff and suspended sediment

In recent years, agricultural runoff has received more attention as a major contributor to surface water pollution. This is especially true for the unglaciated area of Wisconsin, given this area's steep topography, which makes it highly susceptible to runoff and soil loss. We evaluated the ability of an at-grade stabilization structure (AGSS), designed as a conservation practice to reduce the amount of overland runoff and suspended sediment transported to the surface waters of an agricultural watershed. Eight years of storm and baseflow data collected by the US Geological Survey–Wisconsin Water Science Center on a farm in west central Wisconsin were analyzed for changes in precipitation, storm runoff volume, and suspended sediment concentration before and after installation of an AGSS. The agricultural research site was designed as a paired watershed study in which monitoring stations were installed on the perennial streams draining both control and treatment watersheds. Linear mixed effects model analyses were conducted to determine if any statistically significant changes occurred in the water quality parameters before and after the AGSS was installed. Results indicated no significant changes ( p = 0.51) in average event precipitation and runoff volumes before and after installation of the AGSS in either the treatment (NW) or control (SW) watersheds. However, the AGSS did significantly reduce the average suspended sediment concentration in the event runoff water ( p = 0.02) in the NW from 972 to 263 mg L –1 . In addition, particle size analyses, using light diffraction techniques, were conducted on soil samples taken from within the AGSS and adjacent valley and ridge top to determine if suspended sediments were being retained within the structure. Statistical analysis revealed a significantly ( p < 0.001) larger proportion of clay inside the AGSS (37%) than outside (30%). These results indicate that the AGSS was successful in reducing the amount of suspended sediment transported to nearby surface waters. The cost of an AGSS can range from US$3,500 to US$8,000, depending on size. Thus, these structures provide a cheap and effective means of improving water quality in highly erosive landscapes.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2023

Using high-frequency monitoring data to quantify city-wide suspended-sediment load and evaluate TMDL goals

Excess sediment is a common reason water bodies in the USA become listed as impaired resulting in total maximum daily loads (TMDL) that require municipalities to invest millions of dollars annually on management practices aimed at reducing suspended-sediment loads (SSLs), yet monitoring data are rarely used to quantify SSLs and track TMDL progress. A monitoring network was created to quantify the SSL from the City of Roanoke, Virginia, USA (CoR), to the Roanoke River and Tinker Creek and help guide TMDL assessment and implementation. Suspended-sediment concentrations were estimated between 2020 and 2022 from high-frequency turbidity data using surrogate linear-regression models. Sixty-one percent of the total three-year SSL resulted from five large storm events. The average suspended-sediment yield from the CoR (58.1 metric tons/km 2 /year) was similar to other urban watersheds in the Eastern United States; however, the yield was nearly five times larger than the TMDL allocation (12.2 metric tons/km 2 /year). The TMDL allocated load was modeled based on a predominantly forested reference watershed and may not be a practical target for highly impervious watersheds within the CoR. The TMDL model used daily input data which likely does not capture the full range of SSLs during storm events, particularly from flashy urban streams. The average SSL following the five large storm events doubled that of the CoR’s annual allocated load from the TMDL. The results of this study highlight the importance of using high-frequency monitoring data to accurately estimate SSLs and evaluate TMDLs in urban areas.

Virginia↗

USGS2019

Effects of climate-related variability in storage on streamwater solute concentrations and fluxes in a small forested watershed in the Southeastern United States

Streamwater quality can be affected by climate-related variability in hydrologic state, which controls flow paths and affects biogeochemical processes. Thirty-one years of input/output solute fluxes at Panola Mountain Research Watershed, a small, forested, seasonally water-limited watershed near Atlanta, Georgia, were used to quantify the effects of climatic-related variability in storage on streamwater solute concentrations and fluxes. Streamwater fluxes were estimated for ten solutes from weekly and event sample concentrations using regression-based methods. The most pertinent storage attribute (current or antecedent watershed, shallow, and deep storage) for each solute was determined by fitting separate concentration relationships. The concentration-discharge relationships varied more for reactive solutes such as potassium, sulfate, and DOC and less for weathering products (base cations and dissolved silica) and conservative chloride. Many solutes exhibited higher concentrations when storage levels were lower or wetting up, which was likely the result of the concentrating effects of evapotranspiration and/or the buildup and flushing of weathering products associated with longer residence times. The impacts of storage modeling on annual fluxes varied by solute, ranging from about 5% (magnesium) to 52% (nitrate) as relative standard deviations, and sufficiently removed climate-related patterns observed in streamwater concentrations. Sulfate was particularly mobilized following growing season droughts but only if deep storage was sufficiently recharged, possibly indicating that sulfides in the deep storage pool were oxidized to sulfate during droughts and mobilized when re-wetted. The lack of streamwater sulfate response to 61% declines in atmospheric deposition indicates the importance of watershed biogeochemical processes on controls of streamwater export of sulfate. The approach of explicitly incorporating storage in the streamwater concentration modeling elucidated the effects of climate on streamwater water-quality and may provide insight into the effects of climatic change on future fluxes.

Georgia↗

USGS2012

Sediment transport to and from small impoundments in northeast Kansas, March 2009 through September 2011

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Kansas Water Office, investigated sediment transport to and from three small impoundments (average surface area of 0.1 to 0.8 square miles) in northeast Kansas during March 2009 through September 2011. Streamgages and continuous turbidity sensors were operated upstream and downstream from Atchison County, Banner Creek, and Centralia Lakes to study the effect of varied watershed characteristics and agricultural practices on sediment transport in small watersheds in northeast Kansas. Atchison County Lake is located in a predominantly agricultural basin of row crops, with wide riparian buffers along streams, a substantial amount of tile drainage, and numerous small impoundments (less than 0.05 square miles; hereafter referred to as “ponds”). Banner Creek Lake is a predominantly grassland basin with numerous small ponds located in the watershed, and wide riparian buffers along streams. Centralia Lake is a predominantly agricultural basin of row crops with few ponds, few riparian buffers along streams, and minimal tile drainage. Upstream from Atchison County, Banner Creek, and Centralia Lakes 24, 38, and 32 percent, respectively, of the total load was transported during less than 0.1 percent (approximately 0.9 days) of the time. Despite less streamflow in 2011, larger sediment loads during that year indicate that not all storm events transport the same amount of sediment; larger, extreme storms during the spring may transport much larger sediment loads in small Kansas watersheds. Annual sediment yields were 360, 400, and 970 tons per square mile per year at Atchison County, Banner, and Centralia Lake watersheds, respectively, which were less than estimated yields for this area of Kansas (between 2,000 and 5,000 tons per square mile per year). Although Centralia and Atchison County Lakes had similar percentages of agricultural land use, mean annual sediment yields upstream from Centralia Lake were about 2.7 times those at Atchison County or Banner Creek Lakes. These data indicate larger yields of sediment from watersheds with row crops and those with fewer small ponds, and smaller yields in watersheds which are primarily grassland, or agricultural with substantial tile drainage and riparian buffers along streams. These results also indicated that a cultivated watershed can produce yields similar to those observed under the assumed reference (or natural) condition. Selected small ponds were studied in the Atchison County Lake watershed to characterize the role of small ponds in sediment trapping. Studied ponds trapped about 8 percent of the sediment upstream from the sediment-sampling site. When these results were extrapolated to the other ponds in the watershed, differences in the extent of these ponds was not the primary factor affecting differences in yields among the three watersheds. However, the selected small ponds were both 45 years old at the time of this study, and have reduced capacity because of being filled in with sediments. Additionally, trapping efficiency of these small ponds decreased over five observed storms, indicating that processes that suspended or resuspended sediments in these shallow ponds, such as wind and waves, affected their trapping efficiencies. While small ponds trapped sediments in small storms, they could be a source of sediment in larger or more closely spaced storm events. Channel slope was similar at all three watersheds, 0.40, 0.46, and 0.31 percent at Atchison County, Banner Creek, and Centralia Lake watersheds, respectively. Other factors, such as increased bank and stream erosion, differences in tile drainage, extent of grassland, or riparian buffers, could be the predominant factors affecting sediment yields from these basins. These results show that reference-like sediment yields may be observed in heavily agricultural watersheds through a combination of field-scale management activities and stream channel protection. When computing loads using published erosion rates obtained by single-point survey methodology, streambank contributions from the main stem of Banner Creek are three times more than the sediment load observed by this study at the sediment sampling site at Banner Creek, 2.6 times more than the sediment load observed by this study at the sediment sampling site at Clear Creek (upstream from Atchison County Lake), and are 22 percent of the load observed by this study at the sediment sampling site at Black Vermillion River above Centralia Lake. Comparisons of study sites to similarly sized urban and urbanizing watersheds in Johnson County, Kansas indicated that sediment yields from the Centralia Lake watershed were similar to those in construction-affected watersheds, while much smaller sediment yields in the Atchison County and Banner Creek watersheds were comparable to stable, heavily urbanized watersheds. Comparisons of study sites to larger watersheds upstream from Tuttle Creek Lake indicate the Black Vermillion River watershed continues to have high sediment yields despite 98 percent of sediment from the Centralia watershed (a headwater of the Black Vermillion River) being trapped in Centralia Lake. Estimated trapping efficiencies for the larger watershed lakes indicated that Banner Creek and Centralia Lakes trapped 98 percent of incoming sediment, whereas Atchison County Lake trapped 72 percent of incoming sediment during the 3-year study period.

Kansas↗

USGS2017

Preliminary assessment of a water-quality monitoring program for total maximum daily loads in Johnson County, Kansas, January 2015 through June 2016

Municipalities in Johnson County in northeastern Kansas are required to implement stormwater management programs to reduce pollutant discharges, protect water quality, and comply with applicable water-quality regulations in accordance with National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System permits for stormwater discharge. To this end, municipalities collect grab samples at streams entering and leaving their jurisdiction to determine levels of excessive nutrients, sediment, and fecal bacteria to characterize pollutants and understand the factors affecting them. In 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey and the Johnson County Stormwater Management Program, with input from the Kansas Department of Health and Environment, initiated a 5-year monitoring program to satisfy minimum sampling requirements for each municipality as described by new stormwater permits issued to Johnson County municipalities. The purpose of this report is to provide a preliminary assessment of the monitoring program. The monitoring program is described, a preliminary assessment of the monitoring program design is provided using water-quality data collected during the first 2 years of the program, and the ability of the current monitoring network and sampling plan to provide data sufficient to quantify improvements in water quality resulting from implemented and planned best management practices is evaluated. The information in this initial report may be used to evaluate changes in data collection methods while data collection is still ongoing that may lead to improved data utility. Discrete water-quality samples were collected at 27 sites and analyzed for nutrients, Escherichia coli ( E. coli ) bacteria, total suspended solids, and suspended-sediment concentration. In addition, continuous water-quality data (water temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, specific conductance, turbidity, and nitrate plus nitrite) were collected at one site to characterize variability and provide a basis for comparison to discrete data. Base flow samples indicated that point sources are likely affecting nutrient concentrations and E. coli bacteria densities at several sites. Concentrations of all analytes in storm runoff samples were characterized by substantial variability among sites and samples. About one-half of the sites, representing different watersheds, had storm runoff samples with nitrogen concentrations greater than 10 milligrams per liter. About one-third of the sites, representing different watersheds, had storm runoff samples with total phosphorus concentrations greater than 3 milligrams per liter. Six sites had samples with E. coli densities greater than 100,000 colonies per 100 milliliters of water. Total suspended solids concentrations of about 12,000 milligrams per liter or greater occurred in samples from three sites. Data collected for this monitoring program may be useful for some general assessment purposes but may also be limited in potential to fully inform stormwater management activities. Valuable attributes of the monitoring program design included incorporating many sites across the county for comparisons among watersheds and municipalities, using fixed-stage samplers to collect multiple samples during single events, collection of base flow samples in addition to storm samples to isolate possible point sources from stormwater sources, and use of continuous monitors to characterize variability. Limiting attributes of the monitoring program design included location of monitoring sites along municipal boundaries to satisfy permit requirements rather than using watershed-based criteria such as locations of tributaries, potential pollutant sources, and implemented management practices. Additional limiting attributes include having a large number of widespread sampling locations, which presented logistical challenges for predicting localized rainfall and collecting and analyzing samples during short timeframes associated with storms, and collecting storm samples at fixed-stage elevations only during the rising limb of storms, which does not characterize conditions over the storm hydrograph. The small number of samples collected per site resulted in a sample size too small to be representative of site conditions, including seasonal and hydrologic variability, and insufficient for meaningful statistical analysis or site-specific modeling. Several measures could be taken to improve data utility and include redesigning the monitoring network according to watershed characteristics, incorporating a nested design in which data are collected at different scales (watershed, subwatershed, and best management practices), increasing sampling frequency, and combining different methods to allow for flexibility to focus on areas and conditions of particular interest. A monitoring design that would facilitate most of these improvements would be to focus efforts on a limited number of watersheds for several years, then cycle to the next set of watersheds for several years, eventually returning to previously monitored watersheds to document changes. Redesign of the water-quality monitoring program requires considerable effort and commitment from municipalities of Johnson County. However, the long-term benefit likely is a monitoring program that results in improved stream conditions and more effective management practices and efficient expenditure of resources.

Kansas↗

USGS2016

Potential postwildfire debris-flow hazards—A prewildfire evaluation for the Jemez Mountains, north-central New Mexico

Wildfire can substantially increase the probability of debris flows, a potentially hazardous and destructive form of mass wasting, in landscapes that have otherwise been stable throughout recent history. Although the exact location, extent, and severity of wildfire or subsequent rainfall intensity and duration cannot be known, probabilities of fire and debris‑flow occurrence for given locations can be estimated with geospatial analysis and modeling. The purpose of this report is to provide information on which watersheds might constitute the most serious potential debris - flow hazards in the event of a large - scale wildfire and subsequent rainfall in the Jemez Mountains. Potential probabilities and estimated volumes of postwildfire debris flows in both the unburned and previously burned areas of the Jemez Mountains and surrounding areas were estimated using empirical debris - flow models developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in combination with fire behavior and burn probability models developed by the U.S. Forest Service. Of the 4,998 subbasins modeled for this study, computed debris-flow probabilities in 671 subbasins were greater than 80 percent in response to the 100 - year recurrence interval, 30-minute duration rainfall event. These subbasins ranged in size from 0.01 to 6.57 square kilometers (km 2 ), with an average area of 0.29 km 2 , and were mostly steep, upstream tributaries to larger channels in the area. Modeled debris-flow volumes in 465 subbasins were greater than 10,000 cubic meters (m 3 ), and 14 of those subbasins had modeled debris‑flow volumes greater than 100,000 m 3 . The rankings of integrated relative debris - flow hazard indexes for each subbasin were generated by multiplying the individual subbasin values for debris - flow volume, debris‑flow probability, and average burn probability. The subbasins with integrated hazard index values in the top 2 percent typically are large, upland tributaries to canyons and channels primarily in the Upper Rio Grande and Rio Grande-Santa Fe watershed areas. No subbasins in this group have basin areas less than 1.0 km 2 . Many of these areas already had significant mass‑wasting episodes following the Las Conchas Fire in 2011. Other subbasins with integrated hazard index values in the top 2 percent are scattered throughout the Jemez River watershed area, including some subbasins in the interior of the Valles Caldera. Only a few subbasins in the top integrated hazard index group are in the Rio Chama watershed area. This prewildfire assessment approach is valuable to resource managers because the analysis of the debris-flow threat is made before a wildfire occurs, which facilitates prewildfire management, planning, and mitigation. In north‑central New Mexico, widespread watershed restoration efforts are being done to safeguard vital watersheds against the threat of catastrophic wildfire. This study was designed to help select ideal locations for the restoration efforts that could have the best return on investment.

New Mexico↗

USGS2011

Macroinvertebrate response to flow changes in a subalpine stream: predictions from two-dimensional hydrodynamic models

Two-dimensional hydrodynamic models are being used increasingly as alternatives to traditional one-dimensional instream flow methodologies for assessing adequacy of flow and associated faunal habitat. Two-dimensional modelling of habitat has focused primarily on fishes, but fish-based assessments may not model benthic macroinvertebrate habitat effectively. We extend two-dimensional techniques to a macroinvertebrate assemblage in a high-elevation stream in the Sierra Nevada (Dana Fork of the Tuolumne River, Yosemite National Park, CA, USA). This stream frequently flows at less than 0.03?m 3 ?s ?1 in late summer and is representative of a common water abstraction scenario: maximum water abstraction coinciding with seasonally low flows. We used two-dimensional modelling to predict invertebrate responses to reduced flows that might result from increased abstraction. We collected site-specific field data on the macroinvertebrate assemblage, bed topography and flow conditions and then coupled a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model with macroinvertebrate indices to evaluate habitat across a range of low flows. Macroinvertebrate indices were calculated for the wetted area at each flow. A surrogate flow record based on an adjacent watershed was used to evaluate frequency and duration of low flow events. Using surrogate historical records, we estimated that flow should fall below 0.071?m 3 ?s ?1 at least 1?day in 82 of 95?years and below 0.028?m 3 ?s ?1 in 48 of 95?years. Invertebrate metric means indicated minor losses in response to modelled discharge reductions, but wetted area decreased substantially. Responses of invertebrates to water abstraction will likely be a function of changing habitat quantity rather than quality.

California↗

USGS2001

Evaluation of flash-flood discharge forecasts in complex terrain using precipitation

Operational prediction of flash floods produced by thunderstorm (convective) precipitation in mountainous areas requires accurate estimates or predictions of the precipitation distribution in space and time. The details of the spatial distribution are especially critical in complex terrain because the watersheds are generally small in size, and small position errors in the forecast or observed placement of the precipitation can distribute the rain over the wrong watershed. In addition to the need for good precipitation estimates and predictions, accurate flood prediction requires a surface-hydrologic model that is capable of predicting stream or river discharge based on the precipitation-rate input data. Different techniques for the estimation and prediction of convective precipitation will be applied to the Buffalo Creek, Colorado flash flood of July 1996, where over 75 mm of rain from a thunderstorm fell on the watershed in less than 1 h. The hydrologic impact of the precipitation was exacerbated by the fact that a significant fraction of the watershed experienced a wildfire approximately two months prior to the rain event. Precipitation estimates from the National Weather Service's operational Weather Surveillance Radar-Doppler 1988 and the National Center for Atmospheric Research S-band, research, dual-polarization radar, colocated to the east of Denver, are compared. In addition, very short range forecasts from a convection-resolving dynamic model, which is initialized variationally using the radar reflectivity and Doppler winds, are compared with forecasts from an automated-algorithmic forecast system that also employs the radar data. The radar estimates of rain rate, and the two forecasting systems that employ the radar data, have degraded accuracy by virtue of the fact that they are applied in complex terrain. Nevertheless, the radar data and forecasts from the dynamic model and the automated algorithm could be operationally useful for input to surface-hydrologic models employed for flood warning. Precipitation data provided by these various techniques at short time scales and at fine spatial resolutions are employed as detailed input to a distributed-parameter hydrologic model for flash-flood prediction and analysis. With the radar-based precipitation estimates employed as input, the simulated flood discharge was similar to that observed. The dynamic-model precipitation forecast showed the most promise in providing a significant discharge-forecast lead time. The algorithmic system's precipitation forecast did not demonstrate as much skill, but the associated discharge forecast would still have been sufficient to have provided an alert of impending flood danger.

Journal of Hydrologic Engineering↗

USGS2005

Hydrogeologic framework and water quality of the Vermont Army National Guard Ethan Allen Firing Range, northern Vermont, October 2002 through December 2003

The Ethan Allen Firing Range of the Vermont Army National Guard is a weapons-testing and training facility in a mountainous region of Vermont that has been in operation for about 80 years. The hydrologic framework and water quality of the facility were assessed between October 2002 and December 2003. As part of the study, streamflow was continuously measured in the Lee River and 24 observation wells were installed at 19 locations in the stratified drift and bedrock aquifers to examine the hydrogeology. Chemical analyses of surface water, ground water, streambed sediment, and fish tissue were collected to assess major ions, trace elements, nutrients, and volatile and semivolatile compounds. Sampling included 5 surface-water sites sampled during moderate and low-flow conditions; streambed-sediment samples collected at the 5 surface-water sites; fish-tissue samples collected at 3 of the 5 surface-water sites; macroinvertebrates collected at 4 of the 5 surface-water sites; and ground-water samples collected from 10 observation wells, and samples collected at all surface- and ground-water sites. The hydrogeologic framework at the Ethan Allen Firing Range is dominated by the upland mountain and valley setting of the site. Bedrock wells yield low to moderate amounts of water (0 to 23 liters per minute). In the narrow river valleys, layered stratified-drift deposits of sand and gravel of up to 18 meters thick fill the Lee River and Mill Brook Valleys. In these deposits, the water table is generally within 3 meters below the land surface and overall ground-water flow is from east to west. Streamflow in the Lee River averaged 0.72 cubic meters per second (25.4 cubic feet per second) between December 2002 and December 2003. Streams are highly responsive to precipitation events in this mountainous environment and a comparison with other nearby watersheds shows that Lee River maintains relatively high streamflow during dry periods. Concentrations of trace elements and nutrients in surface-water samples are well below freshwater-quality guidelines for the protection of aquatic life. Brook-trout samples collected in 1992 and 2003 show trace-metal concentrations have decreased over the past 11 years. concentrations in water samples are well below levels that restrict swimming at all five stream sites at moderate and low-flow conditions and in all observation wells. Comparisons among surface-water, streambed-sediment, and biological samples collected in 2003 to earlier studies at the Ethan Allen Firing Range indicate water-quality conditions are similar or have improved over the past 15 years. Ground water in the stratified-drift aquifers at the facility is well buffered with relatively high alkalinities and pH greater than 6. Concentrations of arsenic, cadmium, chromium, lead, nickel, uranium, and zinc were below detection levels in ground-water samples. Barium, cobalt, copper, iron, manganese, molybdenum, and strontium were the only trace elements detected in ground-water samples. Cobalt and iron were detected at low levels in two wells near Mill Brook, and copper was detected at the detection limit in one of these wells. These same two wells had concentrations of barium and manganese 2 to 10 times greater than other ground-water samples. Concentrations of nutrients are at or below detection levels in most ground-water samples. Volatile organic compounds and semivolatile organic compounds were not detected in any water samples from the Ethan Allen Firing Range.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS1983

Use of rainfall-simulator data in precipitation-runoff modeling studies

Results of a study using a rainfall simulator to define infiltration parameters for use in watershed modeling are presented. A total of 23 rainfall-simulation runs were made on five small plots representing four representative soil-vegetation types of the study watershed in eastern Colorado. Data for three observed rainfall-runoff events were recorded by gages on four of the plots. Data from all events were used to develop best-fit parameters of the Green and Ampt infiltration equation. The hydraulic conductivity of the transmission zone, KSAT, grossly controlled the goodness of fit of all modeling attempts. Results of fitting KSAT to reproduce runoff from rainfall simulator runs and results of fitting KSAT to reproduce runoff from observed rainfall-runoff events are inconsistent. Variations in results from site to site and at different times of the year were observed. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2010

Simulation of streamflow and suspended-sediment concentrations and loads in the lower Nueces River watershed, downstream from Lake Corpus Christi to the Nueces Estuary, South Texas, 1958-2008

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers-Fort Worth District, City of Corpus Christi, Guadalupe-Blanco River Authority, San Antonio River Authority, and San Antonio Water System, developed, calibrated, and tested a Hydrological Simulation Program ? FORTRAN (HSPF) watershed model to simulate streamflow and suspended-sediment concentrations and loads during 1958-2008 in the lower Nueces River watershed, downstream from Lake Corpus Christi to the Nueces Estuary in South Texas. Data available to simulate suspended-sediment concentrations and loads consisted of historical sediment data collected during 1942-82 in the study area and suspended-sediment concentration data collected periodically by the USGS during 2006-07 at three USGS streamflow-gaging stations, Nueces River near Mathis, Nueces River at Bluntzer, and Nueces River at Calallen. The Nueces River near Mathis station is downstream from Wesley E. Seale Dam, completed in 1958 to impound Lake Corpus Christi. Suspended-sediment data collected before and after completion of Wesley E. Seale Dam provide insights to the effects of the dam and reservoir on suspended-sediment loads transported by the lower Nueces River from downstream of the dam to the Nueces Estuary. Annual suspended-sediment loads at a site near the Nueces River at Mathis station were considerably lower, for a given annual mean discharge, after the dam was completed than before the dam was completed. Most of the suspended sediment transported by the Nueces River downstream from Wesley E. Seale Dam occurred during high-flow releases from the dam or during floods. During October 1964-September 1971, about 532,000 tons of suspended sediment were transported by the Nueces River near Mathis. Of this amount, about 473,000 tons, or about 89 percent, were transported by large runoff events (mean streamflow exceeding 1,000 cubic feet per second). To develop the watershed model to simulate suspended-sediment concentrations and loads in the lower Nueces River watershed during 1958-2008, streamflow simulations were calibrated and tested with available data for 2001-08 from the Nueces River at Bluntzer and Nueces River at Calallen stations. Streamflow data from the Nueces River near Mathis station were used as input to the model at the upstream boundary of the model. Simulated streamflow volumes for the Bluntzer and Calallen stations showed good agreement (within 6 percent) with measured streamflow volumes. The HSPF model was calibrated to simulate suspended sediment using suspended-sediment data collected at the Mathis, Bluntzer, and Calallen stations during 2006-07. The calibrated watershed model was used to estimate streamflow and suspended-sediment loads for 1958-2008, including loads transported to the Nueces Estuary. During 1958-2008, on average, an estimated 307 tons per day of suspended sediment were delivered to the lower Nueces River; an estimated 297 tons per day were delivered to the estuary. The annual suspended-sediment load was highly variable, depending on the occurrence of storm events and high streamflows. During 1958-2008, the annual total sediment loads to the estuary varied from an estimated 3.8 to 2,490 tons per day. On average, 117 tons per day, or about 38 percent of the estimated annual suspended-sediment contribution, originated from cropland in the study watershed. Releases from Lake Corpus Christi delivered an estimated 98 tons per day of suspended sediment or about 32 percent of the 307 tons per day estimated to have been delivered to the lower Nueces River. Erosion of stream-channel bed and banks accounted for 55 tons per day or about 18 percent of the estimated total suspended-sediment load. All other land categories, except cropland, accounted for an estimated 37 tons per day, or about 12 percent of the total. An estimated 9.6 tons per day of suspended sediment or about 3 percent of the suspended-sediment load delivered to the lower Nueces River

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2013

Drivers of circulation in a fringing coral reef embayment: A wave-flow coupled numerical modeling study of Hanalei Bay, Hawaii

A coupled wave-circulation numerical model of Hanalei Bay, Hawaii, was constructed to investigate controls on nearshore hydrodynamics and overall circulation of a bathymetrically-complex coral reef embayment that is exposed to large waves and river floods several times per annum. The model was calibrated using in situ data representative of the two conditions that dominate the region's wave climate: one associated with local trade winds and associated trade-wind waves, and the other with distant-source episodic large swells. The model results were improved by including spatially-varying hydrodynamic bed roughness and making the semi-empirical wave-breaking parameter dependent on incident wave steepness and reef slope. During trade-wind conditions, circulation was primarily wind-driven and volume flux-based flushing times of the bay were on the order of 35 h. Under the episodic swell conditions, circulation were dominated by wave-driven flows and flushing times decreased to as little as 2 h. The vigorous hydrodynamics that occur during the upper 10% most energetic swell conditions indicate that only a few (0–10) events each year are likely capable of exporting significant volumes of sediment from the bay. Like many fringing reef areas backed by steep-sided watersheds on tropical and sub-tropical high islands worldwide, Hanalei Bay receives high episodic fluvial sediment load during a similarly low number of flood events. These similarly episodic but decoupled processes of sediment delivery and removal identified here suggest that the water quality and sedimentary environment of Hanalei Bay and similar linked watershed-reef systems are sensitive to changes in annual storm frequency and intensity.

Hawaii↗

USGS2024

Major fluvial erosion and a 500-Mt sediment pulse triggered by lava-dam failure, Río Coca, Ecuador

The failure of a 144-m-high lava-dam waterfall on the Río Coca, Ecuador, in February 2020 initiated a catastrophic watershed reset—regressive erosion upstream and a massive sediment pulse downstream—as the river evolves towards a new equilibrium grade. The evolution of this river corridor after a sudden base-level fall embodies the “complex response” concepts long understood through laboratory experiments, numerical modelling and smaller-scale field studies, but that have not been observed in the field before on this scale. This paper presents geomorphic and geotechnical data to characterize the evolution of the Río Coca since 2020. In the three years after the lava-dam failure, the erosion front migrated almost 13 km upstream along the mainstem river and triggered secondary headcuts that began migrating up tributaries. Erosion of the mainstem and tributary valleys generated a sediment pulse estimated to be 277 million m 3 and ~500 million tonnes (Mt) over three years, depositing sediment tens of meters thick over tens of kilometres downstream from the former waterfall. This sediment pulse is one of the largest in modern times, comparable to the annual sediment load of a major continent-draining river but with orders-of-magnitude greater sediment yield. Geomorphic adjustment of the Río Coca represents a highly unusual natural disaster threatening life, property, water quality, the regional economy, major infrastructure and energy security. However, this event also provides a rare opportunity to learn how a large autogenic watershed disturbance and recovery evolve, with important lessons for interpreting the sedimentary record of volcanic landscapes.

Río Coca↗

USGS2007

Presumptive Sources of Fecal Contamination in Four Tributaries to the New River Gorge National River, West Virginia, 2004

Several methods were used to determine the sources of fecal contamination in water samples collected during September and October 2004 from four tributaries to the New River Gorge National River -- Arbuckle Creek, Dunloup Creek, Keeney Creek, and Wolf Creek. All four tributaries historically have had elevated levels of fecal coliform bacteria. The source-tracking methods used yielded various results, possibly because one or more methods failed. Sourcing methods used in this study included the detection of several human-specific and animal-specific biological or molecular markers, and library-dependent pulsed-field gel electrophoresis analysis that attempted to associate Escherichia coli bacteria obtained from water samples with animal sources by matching DNA-fragment banding patterns. Evaluation of the results of quality-control analysis indicated that pulsed-field gel electrophoresis analysis was unable to identify known-source bacteria isolates. Increasing the size of the known-source library did not improve the results for quality-control samples. A number of emerging methods, using markers in Enterococcus, human urine, Bacteroidetes, and host mitochondrial DNA, demonstrated some potential in associating fecal contamination with human or animal sources in a limited analysis of quality-control samples. All four of the human-specific markers were detected in water samples from Keeney Creek, a watershed with no centralized municipal wastewater-treatment facilities, thus indicating human sources of fecal contamination. The human-specific Bacteroidetes and host mitochondrial DNA markers were detected in water samples from Dunloup Creek, Wolf Creek, and to a lesser degree Arbuckle Creek. Results of analysis for wastewater compounds indicate that the September 27 sample from Arbuckle Creek contained numerous human tracer compounds likely from sewage. Dog, horse, chicken, and pig host mitochondrial DNA were detected in some of the water samples with the exception of the October 5 sample from Dunloup Creek. Cow, white-tailed deer, and Canada goose DNA were not detected in any of the samples collected from the four tributaries, despite the presence of these animals in the watersheds. Future studies with more rigorous quality-control analyses are needed to investigate the potential applicability and use of these emerging methods. Because many of the detections for the various methods could vary over time and with flow conditions, repeated sampling during both base flow and storm events would be necessary to more definitively determine the sources of fecal contamination for each watershed.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2004

Use of short-term (5-Minute) and long-term (18-Hour) leaching tests to characterize, fingerprint, and rank mine-waste material from historical mines in the Deer Creek, Snake River, and Clear Creek Watersheds in and around the Montezuma Mining District, Colorado

Precipitation-induced runoff from historical mine-waste located adjacent to the headwaters of the Snake River, Deer Creek, Saints John Creek, Grizzly Gulch, Stevens Gulch, and Leavenworth Creek contributes to the degradation of water quality in these streams. Because historical mine-waste piles have had long-term exposure to the atmosphere, it is surmised that runoff from these piles, induced by meteorological events such as cloudbursts and snowmelt, may cause mobility of acid and metals into a watershed due to dissolution of soluble minerals. For this study, 13 mine-waste composite samples from various mine-wastes in these drainage basins were leached using both a short-term and a long-term leach test. Analytical results from this combination of leach tests are tools that allow the investigator to quantify (fingerprint) which geochemical components could be expected in runoff from these piles if they were leached by a cloudburst (5-minute leach test), as well as what the ?worst-case? geochemical profile would look like if the material were subject to extended leaching and breakdown of the mine-waste material (18-hour leach test). Also, this combination of leach tests allows the geoscientist the ability to see geochemical changes in the mine-waste leachate over time. That is, does the leachate become more or less acidic over time; does the specific conductance increase or decrease; and are there changes in the concentrations of major or trace elements? Further, use of a ranking scheme described herein will aid in prediction of which historical mine-waste piles have the greatest potential for impact on a watershed should runoff occur. Because of long-term weathering of these historical mine-waste piles, geochemical profiles, leachate time-trends, and relative ranking of the mine-wastes produced from analysis of the leachates are Hageman_SIR_2508.doc 1 7/21/2004 2:50 PM indicative of how the mine-waste piles can be expected to act in the environment and may help to identify the ?bad actors??this may aid in understanding the reasons for water-quality differences between the drainages.

Scientific Investigations Report↗