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USGS2013

A natural resource condition assessment for Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks: Appendix 22: climatic change

Climate is a master controller of the structure, composition, and function of biotic communities, affecting them both directly, through physiological effects, and indirectly, by mediating biotic interactions and by influencing disturbance regimes. Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Park’s (SEKI’s) dramatic elevational changes in biotic communities -- from warm mediterranean to cold alpine -- are but one manifestation of climate’s overarching importance in shaping SEKI’s landscape. Yet humans are now altering the global climate, with measurable effects on ecosystems (IPCC 2007). Over the last few decades across the western United States, human-induced climatic changes have likely contributed to observed declines in fraction of precipitation falling as snow and snowpack water content (Mote et al. 2005, Knowles et al. 2006), advance in spring snowmelt (Stewart et al. 2005, Barnett et al. 2008), and consequent increase in area burned in wildfires (Westerling et al. 2006). In the Sierra Nevada, warming temperatures have likely contributed to observed glacial recession (Basagic 2008), uphill migration of small mammals (Moritz et al. 2008), and increasing tree mortality rates (van Mantgem and Stephenson 2007, van Mantgem et al. 2009). More substantial changes can be expected for the future (e.g., IPCC 2007). Given the central importance of climate and climatic changes, we sought to describe long-term trends in temperature and precipitation at SEKI. Time and budget constraints limited us to analyses of mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation, using readily-available data. If funds become available in the future, further analyses will be needed to analyze trends by season, trends in daily minimum and maximum temperatures, and so on. We chose to analyze data from individual weather stations rather than use interpolated climatic data from sources such as PRISM (http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu/). In topographically complex mountainous regions with few weather stations, like SEKI, the addition or subtraction of even a single weather station through time has the potential to significantly bias trends in interpolated data. In particular, this analysis was motivated by our questioning of some PRISM results presented in Appendix 1 (Landscape Context) that compared temperature averages between two 30-year periods of the 20th Century. Figures 6 and 11 of Appendix 1 indicate that recent (1971-2000) temperatures in northern Kings Canyon National Park averaged some 2° C cooler than those of 1911-1940. This would represent a truly profound and persistent cooling, and seems to be at odds both with the glacial retreats observed in the area over the century (Basagic 2008), and with the reported PRISM warming of nearly 2° C just to the west of the cooling (see Figs. 6 and 11 in Appendix 1). We suspect that the extreme localized Kings Canyon cooling reported by PRISM is an artifact of sparsely-distributed weather stations in the region being added and discontinued over the span of the 20th Century. For example, data from the Western Regional Climate Center (http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/coopmap/) suggest that for the period 1911 through 1924 PRISM must interpolate northern Kings Canyon temperatures based on a few low-elevation stations -- separated by hundreds of kilometers -- in Nevada and California’s San Joaquin Valley. In contrast, by 1970 PRISM interpolations will be dominated by closer, higher-elevation stations (see this report). The single weather station closest to northern Kings Canyon that has a temperature record at least partly spanning Appendix 1’s two 30-year time periods -- the Independence station, with a relatively continuous temperature record starting in 1925 -- shows a modest warming, not a cooling, between 1925-1940 and 1971-2000, further casting doubt on the Kings Canyon cooling shown in Figs. 6 and 11 of Appendix 1. If funds become available, it will be useful to more formally analyze potential PRISM biases in long-term SEKI climatic trends. Until then, the analyses of individual weather station records presented here (effectively an analysis of source data that PRISM uses) are meant to provide a robust summary of climatic changes in SEKI.

California↗

USGS2021

The aboveground and belowground growth characteristics of juvenile conifers in the southwestern United States

Juvenile tree survival will play an important role in the persistence of coniferous forests and woodlands in the southwestern United States (SWUS). Vulnerability to climatic and environmental stress declines as trees grow, such that larger, more deeply rooted juveniles are less likely to experience mortality. It is unclear how juvenile conifers partition the aboveground and belowground components of early growth, if growth differs between species and ecosystem types, and what environmental factors influence juvenile carbon allocation above- or belowground. We developed a novel data set for four juvenile conifer groups (junipers, piñon pines, ponderosa pines, firs; 1121 juveniles sampled, 221 destructively) in three height classes (<150 mm, 150–300 mm, and 300+ mm), across 25 SWUS sites. We compared growth characteristics across groups and height classes and related differences to climatic and environmental factors. As tree height increased from <150 mm to 300+ mm, belowground growth increased, root:shoot ratio declined, and specific leaf area declined for all conifers except firs. Maximum rooting depth was shallower than previous estimates (<˜400 mm). Lower elevation juveniles were frequently located in sheltered microsites that provided high shading, whereas mid- and higher elevation juveniles were frequently unsheltered. Across all forest and woodland sites, herbaceous cover was positively correlated with aboveground growth. At study locations comprised of multiple sites, differences in aboveground growth were best explained by ecosystem type (piñon pine-juniper woodland, ponderosa pine forest, mixed-conifer forest) and local environmental variation. Our results indicate generally more belowground early growth and more aboveground later growth, but specific allocation patterns varied among ecosystem (greater proportional shoot growth at lower and mid-elevations compared with higher elevations). Juvenile conifers had similar magnitudes of proportional growth across conifer groups, displaying limited capacity to acclimate growth to differences in climate that control ecosystem type. If juvenile conifers also do not acclimate physiologically to their environment, our findings suggest that local environmental variation will play a primary role in regulating forest and woodland persistence and modify the effects of climate change in the SWUS.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah↗

USGS2012

RIP-ET: A riparian evapotranspiration package for MODFLOW-2005

A new evapotranspiration package for the U.S. Geological Survey's groundwater-flow model, MODFLOW, is documented. The Riparian Evapotranspiration Package (RIP-ET) provides flexibility in simulating riparian and wetland transpiration not provided by the Evapotranspiration (EVT) or Segmented Function Evapotranspiration (ETS1) Packages for MODFLOW 2005. This report describes how the RIP-ET package was conceptualized and provides input instructions, listings and explanations of the source code, and an example. Traditional approaches to modeling evapotranspiration (ET) processes assume a piecewise linear relationship between ET flux and hydraulic head. The RIP-ET replaces this traditional relationship with a segmented, nonlinear dimensionless curve that reflects the eco-physiology of riparian and wetland ecosystems. Evapotranspiration losses from these ecosystems are dependent not only on hydraulic head, but on the plant types present. User-defined plant functional groups (PFGs) are used to elucidate the interaction between plant transpiration and groundwater conditions. Five generalized plant functional groups based on transpiration rates, plant rooting depth, and water tolerance ranges are presented: obligate wetland, shallow-rooted riparian, deep-rooted riparian, transitional riparian and bare ground/open water. Plant functional groups can be further divided into subgroups (PFSGs) based on plant size, density or other characteristics. The RIP-ET allows for partial habitat coverage and mixtures of plant functional subgroups to be present in a single model cell. RIP-ET also distinguishes between plant transpiration and bare-ground evaporation. Habitat areas are designated by polygons; each polygon can contain a mixture of PFSGs and bare ground, and is assigned a surface elevation. This process requires a determination of fractional coverage for each of the plant functional subgroups present in a polygon to account for the mixture of coverage types and resulting transpiration. The fractional cover within a cell has two components: (1) the polygonal fraction of active habitat (excluding area of bare ground, dead trees, or brush) in a cell, and (2) fraction of plant type area or bare ground area in a polygon. RIP-ET determines the transpiration rate for each plant functional group and evaporation from bare ground/open water in a cell, the total ET in the cell, and the total ET rate over the region of simulation.

Techniques and Methods↗

USGS2025

The structural and functional impacts of invasive Psidium cattleianum in forests on the Island of Hawai’i

During the past century, the proliferation of invasive species has contributed to loss of biodiversity and ecosystem degradation. In forests, invasive tree species can alter ecosystem function, but the underlying mechanisms of these changes are not fully understood. We use the ongoing invasion of P. cattleianum on the Island of Hawai’i to test the hypotheses that invasive structural changes drive changes to forest evapotranspiration (ET). The aim of our study is first to quantify the structural changes to native ‘ōhi‘a -dominated forest impacted by a gradient of P. cattleianum invasion. Our results suggest that invasive P. cattleianum causes significant changes to the vegetation density and structure of native forest on the Island of Hawai’i, including increased vegetation area index, decreased mean leaf height, and decreased structural heterogeneity. Second, we strove to understand the functional implications of structural changes through a biophysical modeling simulation, testing the sensitivity of ET to canopy structure under contrasting scenarios. Modeling the functional impact of structural change, we found that plots with P. cattleianum invasion importance value (IV inv ) above 0.35 have a higher likelihood to increase ET compared to plots with P. cattleianum invasion less than 0.35 IV inv . Modeled increases in ET due to invasion ranged from 19 and 123% relative to native transects. The large variation in ET increases is caused by structural variation because the modeling scenarios did not include potential species differences in leaf physiology. Diagnostic scenario modeling shows the effect size of increased leaf area on modeled ET is constrained by the structural arrangement, that is vertical distribution, of the increased vegetation. Thus, invasion structure that increases vegetation density in taller, more sunlit forest strata will lead to a greater increase in ET compared to invasion structure that increases vegetation density in the shaded forest understory. Overall, we conclude the vertical distribution of vegetation is an important factor shaping the impact of invasive P. cattleianum on the forest water balance.

Hawaii↗

USGS2016

Spatial and temporal trends of drought effects in a heterogeneous semi-arid forest ecosystem

Drought has long been recognized as a driving mechanism in the forests of western North America and drought-induced mortality has been documented across genera in recent years. Given the frequency of these events are expected to increase in the future, understanding patterns of mortality and plant response to severe drought is important to resource managers. Drought can affect the functional, physiological, structural, and demographic properties of forest ecosystems. Remote sensing studies have documented changes in forest properties due to direct and indirect effects of drought; however, few studies have addressed this at local scales needed to characterize highly heterogeneous ecosystems in the forest-shrubland ecotone. We analyzed a 22-year Landsat time series (1985–2012) to determine changes in forest in an area that experienced a relatively dry decade punctuated by two years of extreme drought. We assessed the relationship between several vegetation indices and field measured characteristics (e.g. plant area index and canopy gap fraction) and applied these indices to trend analysis to uncover the location, direction and timing of change. Finally, we assessed the interaction of climate and topography by forest functional type. The Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI), a measure of canopy water content, had the strongest correlation with short-term field measures of plant area index ( R 2 = 0.64) and canopy gap fraction ( R 2 = 0.65). Over the entire time period, 25% of the forested area experienced a significant ( p -value < 0.05) negative trend in NDMI, compared to less than 10% in a positive trend. Coniferous forests were more likely to be associated with a negative NDMI trend than deciduous forest. Forests on southern aspects were least likely to exhibit a negative trend while north aspects were most prevalent. Field plots with a negative trend had a lower live density, and higher amounts of standing dead and down trees compared to plots with no trend. Our analysis identifies spatially explicit patterns of long-term trends anchored with ground based evidence to highlight areas of forest that are resistant, persistent or vulnerable to severe drought. The results provide a long-term perspective for the resource management of this area and can be applied to similar ecosystems throughout western North America.

Colorado, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2006

Conservation of Toll-like receptor signaling pathways in teleost fish

In mammals, toll-like receptors (TLR) recognize ligands, including pathogen-associated molecular patterns (PAMPs), and respond with ligand-specific induction of genes. In this study, we establish evolutionary conservation in teleost fish of key components of the TLR-signaling pathway that act as switches for differential gene induction, including MYD88, TIRAP, TRIF, TRAF6, IRF3, and IRF7. We further explore this conservation with a molecular phylogenetic analysis of MYD88. To the extent that current genomic analysis can establish, each vertebrate has one ortholog to each of these genes. For molecular tree construction and phylogeny inference, we demonstrate a methodology for including genes with only partial primary sequences without disrupting the topology provided by the high-confidence full-length sequences. Conservation of the TLR-signaling molecules suggests that the basic program of gene regulation by the TLR-signaling pathway is conserved across vertebrates. To test this hypothesis, leukocytes from a model fish, rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ), were stimulated with known mammalian TLR agonists including: diacylated and triacylated forms of lipoprotein, flagellin, two forms of LPS, synthetic double-stranded RNA, and two imidazoquinoline compounds (loxoribine and R848). Trout leukocytes responded in vitro to a number of these agonists with distinct patterns of cytokine expression that correspond to mammalian responses. Our results support the key prediction from our phylogenetic analyses that strong selective pressure of pathogenic microbes has preserved both TLR recognition and signaling functions during vertebrate evolution.

Comparative Biochemistry and Physiology, Part D: G↗

USGS2025

Effects of climate change on Midwestern ecosystems: Central and Eastern North American Grassland and Shrubland

The Central and Eastern North American Grassland and Shrubland ecosystem may be increasingly shaped by intensifying drought and shifting seasonality. Rising temperatures and more variable precipitation, marked by longer dry spells, are projected to increase evapotranspiration and soil moisture deficits, and yield more frequent drought. At the same time, warming temperatures are projected to advance spring onset and extend the growing season. Drought may alter habitat structure by accelerating soil erosion, disrupting nutrient cycling, increasing physiological stress on plants, and reducing productivity. These changes are expected to shift community composition toward species adapted to water limitation and fluctuating resources, reducing much of the herbaceous cover that characterizes this ecosystem. Seasonal shifts may restructure habitat by altering phenology and f lowering dynamics, potentially increasing productivity but also heightening the risk of late-season frost damage. Community composition is expected to shift toward early-emerging species, particularly coolseason (C3) grasses, and species with phenological flexibility. Altered phenology may also lead to mismatches between plants and pollinators and increase pollinator competition at the beginning and end of the growing season, with potential consequences for reproduction. Although these overarching stressors affect the entire ecosystem, their specific impacts likely vary with local habitat conditions. In the Central and Northern Tallgrass Prairie, which are historically firemaintained habitats dominated by a mix of warm-season (C4) and cool-season (C3) grasses and forbs, climate change may shift community composition by favoring deep-rooted forbs and established shrubs while displacing shallow-rooted species, including many native grasses. These changes, especially in the absence of fire, may promote woody encroachment and drive long-term community reassembly. In the Central Interior Acidic Open Glade and Barrens, characterized by shallow, drought-prone soils, climate change may reinforce xeric assemblages and reduce the abundance of mesic species. In the absence of f ire, shrubs rather than larger woody species, are more likely to increase, as water limitations constrain the establishment of trees. In the Eastern North American Ruderal Meadow and Shrubland, which lack native species richness and structural stability, disturbance-tolerant invaders may increasingly dominate. Drought and earlier springs are expected to reinforce early successional dynamics and further constrain the restoration potential of these already degraded habitats. Across the region, invasive species, herbivory, and microbial and fungal communities are also expected to respond to climate change. Invasive plants with ruderal traits and flexible phenologies are likely to benefit from drought-driven disturbance, post-drought resource pulses, and longer, earlier growing seasons. These species often germinate and flower earlier than natives, gaining priority access to resources as seasonal timing shifts. Herbivory by increasing white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) populations is expected to intensify, particularly during drought, when plant defenses are weakened, and during extended growing seasons, which prolong forage availability. This selective browsing may contribute to declines in native forbs while indirectly promoting non-native grasses. Microbial and fungal communities, like plant communities, are likely vulnerable to both drought and shifting seasonality. Reduced soil moisture may suppress microbial activity and decomposition, while shifts in fungal community composition, particularly declines in arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi, may impair plant drought tolerance. Adaptation strategies for the Central and Eastern North American Grassland and Shrubland may require managers to anticipate and respond to these changes through both resistance-based approaches, such as restoring fire regimes and reinforcing native species dominance, and acceptance of some potential transitions, such as facilitating drought-tolerant and phenologically flexible species establishment and adjusting fire regimes to align with altered phenology.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Miss↗