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At least 127 records · Page 7Linked to original sources
USGS2000

Accounting for site effects in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses of southern California: Overview of the SCEC Phase III Report

This article presents an overview of the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) Phase-III effort to determine the extent to which probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) can be improved by accounting for site effects. The contributions made in this endeavor are represented in the various articles that compose this special issue of BSSA. Given the somewhat arbitrary nature of the site-effect distinction, it must be carefully defined in any given context. With respect to PSHA, we define the site effect as the response, relative to an attenuation relationship, averaged over all damaging earthquakes in the region. A diligent effort has been made to identify any attributes that predispose a site to greater or lower levels of shaking. The most detailed maps of Quaternary geology are not found to be helpful; either they are overly detailed in terms of distinguishing different amplification factors or present southern California strong-motion observations are inadequate to reveal their superiority. A map based on the average shear-wave velocity in the upper 30 m, however, is found to delineate significantly different amplification factors. A correlation of amplification with basin depth is also found to be significant, implying up to a factor of two difference between the shallowest and deepest parts of the Los Angeles basin. In fact, for peak acceleration the basin-depth correction is more influential than the 30-m shear-wave velocity. Questions remain, however, as to whether basin depth is a proxy for some other site attribute. In spite of these significant and important site effects, the standard deviation of an attenuation relationship (the prediction error) is not significantly reduced by making such corrections. That is, given the influence of basin-edge-induced waves, subsurface focusing, and scattering in general, any model that attempts to predict ground motion with only a few parameters will have a substantial intrinsic variability. Our best hope for reducing such uncertainties is via waveform modeling based on first principals of physics. Finally, questions remain with respect to the overall reliability of attenuation relationships at large magnitudes and short distances. Current discrepancies between viable models produce up to a factor of 3 difference among predicted 10% in 50-yr exceedance levels, part of which results from the uncertain influence of sediment nonlinearity.

California↗
USGS2002

Paleoseismic event dating and the conditional probability of large earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault, California

We introduce a quantitative approach to paleoearthquake dating and apply it to paleoseismic data from the Wrightwood and Pallett Creek sites on the southern San Andreas fault. We illustrate how stratigraphic ordering, sedimentological, and historical data can be used quantitatively in the process of estimating earthquake ages. Calibrated radiocarbon age distributions are used directly from layer dating through recurrence intervals and recurrence probability estimation. The method does not eliminate subjective judgements in event dating, but it does provide a means of systematically and objectively approaching the dating process. Date distributions for the most recent 14 events at Wrightwood are based on sample and contextual evidence in Fumal et al. (2002) and site context and slip history in Weldon et al. (2002). Pallett Creek event and dating descriptions are from published sources. For the five most recent events at Wrightwood, our results are consistent with previously published estimates, with generally comparable or narrower uncertainties. For Pallett Creek, our earthquake date estimates generally overlap with previous results but typically have broader uncertainties. Some event date estimates are very sensitive to details of data interpretation. The historical earthquake in 1857 ruptured the ground at both sites but is not constrained by radiocarbon data. Radiocarbon ages, peat accumulation rates, and historical constraints at Pallett Creek for event X yield a date estimate in the earliest 1800s and preclude a date in the late 1600s. This event is almost certainly the historical 1812 earthquake, as previously concluded by Sieh et al. (1989). This earthquake also produced ground deformation at Wrightwood. All events at Pallett Creek, except for event T, about A.D. 1360, and possibly event I, about A.D. 960, have corresponding events at Wrightwood with some overlap in age ranges. Event T falls during a period of low sedimentation at Wrightwood when conditions were not favorable for recording earthquake evidence. Previously proposed correlations of Pallett Creek X with Wrightwood W3 in the 1690s and Pallett Creek event V with W5 around 1480 (Fumal et al., 1993) appear unlikely after our dating reevaluation. Apparent internal inconsistencies among event, layer, and dating relationships around events R and V identify them as candidates for further investigation at the site. Conditional probabilities of earthquake recurrence were estimated using Poisson, lognormal, and empirical models. The presence of 12 or 13 events at Wrightwood during the same interval that 10 events are reported at Pallett Creek is reflected in mean recurrence intervals of 105 and 135 years, respectively. Average Poisson model 30-year conditional probabilities are about 20% at Pallett Creek and 25% at Wrightwood. The lognormal model conditional probabilities are somewhat higher, about 25% for Pallett Creek and 34% for Wrightwood. Lognormal variance ??ln estimates of 0.76 and 0.70, respectively, imply only weak time predictability. Conditional probabilities of 29% and 46%, respectively, were estimated for an empirical distribution derived from the data alone. Conditional probability uncertainties are dominated by the brevity of the event series; dating uncertainty contributes only secondarily. Wrightwood and Pallett Creek event chronologies both suggest variations in recurrence interval with time, hinting that some form of recurrence rate modulation may be at work, but formal testing shows that neither series is more ordered than might be produced by a Poisson process.

California↗
USGS2002

Evidence for large earthquakes on the San Andreas fault at the Wrightwood, California paleoseismic site: A.D. 500 to present

We present structural and stratigraphic evidence from a paleoseismic site near Wrightwood, California, for 14 large earthquakes that occurred on the southern San Andreas fault during the past 1500 years. In a network of 38 trenches and creek-bank exposures, we have exposed a composite section of interbedded debris flow deposits and thin peat layers more than 24 m thick; fluvial deposits occur along the northern margin of the site. The site is a 150-m-wide zone of deformation bounded on the surface by a main fault zone along the northwest margin and a secondary fault zone to the southwest. Evidence for most of the 14 earthquakes occurs along structures within both zones. We identify paleoearthquake horizons using in-filled fissures, scarps, multiple rupture terminations, and widespread folding and tilting of beds. Ages of stratigraphic units and earthquakes are constrained by historic data and 72 14 C ages, mostly from samples of peat and some from plant fibers, wood, pine cones, and charcoal. Comparison of the long, well-resolved paleoseimic record at Wrightwood with records at other sites along the fault indicates that rupture lengths of past earthquakes were at least 100 km long. Paleoseismic records at sites in the Coachella Valley suggest that each of the past five large earthquakes recorded there ruptured the fault at least as far northwest as Wrightwood. Comparisons with event chronologies at Pallett Creek and sites to the northwest suggests that approximately the same part of the fault that ruptured in 1857 may also have failed in the early to mid-sixteenth century and several other times during the past 1200 years. Records at Pallett Creek and Pitman Canyon suggest that, in addition to the 14 earthquakes we document, one and possibly two other large earthquakes ruptured the part of the fault including Wrightwood since about a.d. 500. These observations and elapsed times that are significantly longer than mean recurrence intervals at Wrightwood and sites to the southeast suggest that at least the southermost 200 km of the San Andreas fault is near failure.

California↗
USGS2002

Timing of large earthquakes since A.D. 800 on the Mission Creek strand of the San Andreas fault zone at Thousand Palms Oasis, near Palm Springs, California

Paleoseismic investigations across the Mission Creek strand of the San Andreas fault at Thousand Palms Oasis indicate that four and probably five surface-rupturing earthquakes occurred during the past 1200 years. Calendar age estimates for these earthquakes are based on a chronological model that incorporates radiocarbon dates from 18 in situ burn layers and stratigraphic ordering constraints. These five earthquakes occurred in about A.D. 825 (770–890) (mean, 95% range), A.D. 982 (840–1150), A.D. 1231 (1170–1290), A.D. 1502 (1450–1555), and after a date in the range of A.D. 1520–1680. The most recent surface-rupturing earthquake at Thousand Palms is likely the same as the A.D. 1676 ± 35 event at Indio reported by Sieh and Williams ( 1990 ). Each of the past five earthquakes recorded on the San Andreas fault in the Coachella Valley strongly overlaps in time with an event at the Wrightwood paleoseismic site, about 120 km northwest of Thousand Palms Oasis. Correlation of events between these two sites suggests that at least the southernmost 200 km of the San Andreas fault zone may have ruptured in each earthquake. The average repeat time for surface-rupturing earthquakes on the San Andreas fault in the Coachella Valley is 215 ± 25 years, whereas the elapsed time since the most recent event is 326 ± 35 years. This suggests the southernmost San Andreas fault zone likely is very near failure. The Thousand Palms Oasis site is underlain by a series of six channels cut and filled since about A.D. 800 that cross the fault at high angles. A channel margin about 900 years old is offset right laterally 2.0 ± 0.5 m, indicating a slip rate of 4 ± 2 mm/yr. This slip rate is low relative to geodetic and other geologic slip rate estimates (26 ± 2 mm/yr and about 23–35 mm/yr, respectively) on the southernmost San Andreas fault zone, possibly because (1) the site is located in a small step-over in the fault trace and so the rate is not be representative of the Mission Creek fault, (2) slip is partitioned northward from the San Andreas fault and into the eastern California shear zone, and/or (3) slip is partitioned onto the Banning strand of the San Andreas fault zone.

California↗
USGS2002

Evidence for two surface ruptures in the past 500 years on the San Andreas fault at Frazier Mountain, California

We conducted paleoseismic studies in a closed depression along the San Andreas fault on the north flank of Frazier Mountain near Frazier Park, California. We recognized two earthquake ruptures in our trench exposure and interpreted the most recent rupture, event 1, to represent the historical 1857 earthquake. We also exposed evidence of an earlier surface rupture, event 2, along an older group of faults that did not rerupture during event 1. Radiocarbon dating of the stratigraphy above and below the earlier event constrains its probable age to between A.D. 1460 and 1600. Because we documented continuous, unfaulted stratigraphy between the earlier event horizon and the youngest event horizon in the portion of the fault zone exposed, we infer event 2 to be the penultimate event. We observed no direct evidence of an 1812 earthquake in our exposures. However, we cannot preclude the presence of this event at our site due to limited age control in the upper part of the section and the possibility of other fault strands beyond the limits of our exposures. Based on overlapping age ranges, event 2 at Frazier Mountain may correlate with event B at the Bidart fan site in the Carrizo Plain to the northwest and events V and W4 at Pallett Creek and Wrightwood, respectively, to the southeast. If the events recognized at these multiple sites resulted from the same surface rupture, then it appears that the San Andreas fault has repeatedly failed in large ruptures similar in extent to 1857.

California↗
USGS2002

A record of large earthquakes on the southern Hayward fault for the past 500 years

The Hayward fault, a major branch of the right-lateral San Andreas fault system, traverses the densely populated eastern San Francisco Bay region, California. We conducted a paleoseismic investigation to better understand the Hayward fault's past earthquake behavior. The site is near the south end of Tyson's Lagoon, a sag pond formed in a right step of the fault in Fremont. Because the Hayward fault creeps at the surface, we identified paleoseismic events using features that we judge to be unique to ground ruptures or the result of strong ground motion, such as the presence of fault-scarp colluvial deposits and liquefaction. We correlate the most recent event evidence (E1) to the historical 1868 M 6.9 earthquake that caused liquefaction in the pond and recognize three additional paleoruptures since A.D. 1470 ± 110 yr. Event ages were estimated by chronological modeling, which incorporated historical and stratigraphic information and radiocarbon and pollen data. Modeled, mean age and 95-percentile ranges of the three earlier events are A.D. 1730 (1650-1790) yr (E2), A.D. 1630 (1530-1740) yr (E3), and A.D. 1470 (1360-1580) (E4). The ages of these paleoearthquakes yield a mean recurrence of 130 ± 40 yr. Although the mean recurrence is well determined for the period A.D. 1470-1868, individual intervals are less well determined: E1-E2, 140 +80/-70 yr; E2-E3, 100 +90/-100 yr; and E3-E4, 150 +130/-110 yr.

California↗
USGS2002

Structure and earthquake offsets on the San Andreas fault at the Wrightwood, California paleoseismic site

Thirty-eight trenches and natural exposures across the San Andreas fault zone, four km northwest of Wrightwood, California, reveal the structure and stratigraphy of this paleoseismic site. A 25-m-thick stratigraphic section of late Holocene peat, debris flows, and fluvial sediments have accumulated syntectonically and are deformed in a complicated flower, or flake, structure within the fault zone. Whereas slip is everywhere parallel to the trend of the San Andreas fault, layering within the fan-shaped section guides the surface faulting, and transtensive portions of the structure are connected to transpressive portions by bedding-parallel detachment faults. The structure has grown through time, widely distributing the evidence for individual earthquakes. The broad zone of deformation and rapid sedimentation permit the characterization of an unusually large number of prehistoric earthquakes. The presence of at least four geomorphically similar sites within 10 km along the fault zone suggests that this kind of site is common and other sites should be exploited.

California↗
USGS2002

San Andreas fault zone, California: M≥5.5 earthquake history

The San Andreas fault zone has been a very significant source of major California earthquakes. From 1812 to 1906 it generated four major earthquakes of M ∼7 or larger in two pairs on two major portions of the fault. A pair of major earthquakes occurred on the central to southern region, where the 1857 faulting overlapped the 1812 earthquake faulting. A pair of major earthquakes occurred on the northern region, where the 1906 faulting overlapped the 1838 earthquake faulting. Also, earthquakes of M ∼7 occurred in the San Francisco Bay area on the Hayward fault in 1868 and the Santa Cruz Mountains near Loma Prieta in 1989 and on the Imperial fault near the border with Mexico in 1940. The 1838 earthquake's damage effects throughout the Bay area, from San Francisco to Santa Clara Valley and Monterey, were unequalled by any historical earthquake other than the 1906 event. This, and numerous strong possible aftershocks during the following 3 years in the San Juan Bautista vicinity, suggest 1838 faulting from San Francisco to San Juan Bautista. Cycles of seismicity and quiescence were associated with the Bay area earthquakes of 1868, 1906, and 1989. The 1868 earthquake on the Hayward fault was preceded by 12 earthquakes of M ≥5.5 from 1855 to 1866, within 60 km of the Hayward fault, and was followed by 13 quiet years. The 1906 San Andreas fault event was preceded from 1881 to 1903 by 18 earthquakes of M ≥5.5 and was followed by quiescence, with only three earthquakes of M ≥5.5 until 1954. The Bay area has been seismically quiet at the M ≥5.5 level since the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake and its 1990 aftershocks, which contrasts with the 10 years before 1989, when five M 5.5–6.2 events occurred. The Loma Prieta earthquake is of similar magnitude to the 1868 Hayward event and could be followed by a similarly short quiet period. The 1857 earthquake had immediate foreshocks in the Lonoak–Bitterwater region ∼50 km northwest of Parkfield. In the northern end zone of the 1857 rupture, extending southeast from Bitterwater ∼70 km to Parkfield, the rate of seismic moment release has decreased with time since 1857. This may reflect the decay with time of the stress loading due to the ∼9 m 1857 fault displacements ∼80 km southeast of Parkfield and explain why the predicted earthquake, which was based on the assumption of regular recurrence of Parkfield earthquakes, has not yet occurred. The extent of the 1812 earthquake fault rupture is not well defined. Jacoby et al. ( 1988 ) estimated that it extended ∼170 km from Cajon Pass to Tejon Pass. Based on this estimate, we present the hypothesis that the rupture occurred in two segments in December 1812. The eastern segment generated the 8 December earthquake that damaged San Juan Capistrano, San Gabriel, San Fernando, and San Buenaventura. Thirteen days later the western segment ruptured generating the earthquake that damaged San Fernando and San Buenaventura again, as well as Santa Barbara, Santa Ynez, and Purisima Concepcion.

California↗
USGS2002

Spatial and temporal deformation along the northern San Jacinto fault, southern California: Implications for slip rates

The San Timoteo badlands is an area of uplift and erosional dissection that has formed as a result of late Quaternary uplift along a restraining bend in the San Jacinto fault, of the San Andreas fault system in southern California. This bend currently is located in a region where late Quaternary deposits and associated surfaces have formed in lower San Timoteo Canyon. We have used morphometric analysis of these surfaces, in conjunction with computer modeling of deformational patterns along the San Jacinto fault, to reconstruct spatial and temporal variations in uplift along the bend. Morphometric techniques used include envelope/subenvelope mapping, a gradient-length index along channels, and denudation values. Age control is determined using a combination of thermoluminescence (TL) and near infrared optical simulation luminescence dating (IROSL) and correlation of soil-development indices. These approaches are combined with an elastic half-space model used to determine the deformation associated with the fault bend. The region of modeled uplift has a similar distribution as that determined by morphometric techniques. Luminescence dates and soil-correlation age estimates generally agree. Based on soil development, surfaces within the study area were stabilized at approximately 300-700 ka for Q3, 43-67 ka for Q2, and 27.5-67 ka for Q1. Luminescence ages (both TL and IROSL) for the formation of the younger two surfaces are 58 to 94 ka for Q2 and 37 to 62 ka for Q1 (ages reported to 1?? uncertainty). Periods of uplift were determined for the surfaces in the study area, resulting in approximate uplift rates of 0.34 to 0.84 m/ka for the past 100 ka and 0.13 to 1.00 m/ka for the past 66 ka. Comparison of these rates of uplift to those generated by the model support a higher rate of lateral slip along the San Jacinto fault than commonly assumed (greater than 20 mm/yr, as compared to 8-12 mm/yr commonly cited). This higher slip rate supports the proposal that a greater amount of slip has transferred from the San Andreas fault to the San Jacinto fault than generally held. The San Jacinto fault may have accommodated a significant portion of the plate boundary slip during the past 100 ka.

California↗
USGS2001

Effect of baseline corrections on displacements and response spectra for several recordings of the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake

Displacements derived from many of the accelerogram recordings of the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake show drifts when only a simple baseline derived from the pre-event portion of the record is removed from the records. The appearance of the velocity and displacement records suggests that changes in the zero level of the acceleration are responsible for these drifts. The source of the shifts in zero level are unknown, but in at least one case it is almost certainly due to tilting of the ground. This article illustrates the effect on the ground velocity, ground displacement, and response spectra of several schemes for accounting for these baseline shifts. A wide range of final displacements can be obtained for various choices of baseline correction, and comparison with nearby GPS stations (none of which are colocated with the accelerograph stations) do not help in choosing the appropriate baseline correction. The results suggest that final displacements estimated from the records should be used with caution. The most important conclusion for earthquake engineering purposes, however, is that the response spectra for periods less than about 20 sec are usually unaffected by the baseline correction. Although limited to the analysis of only a small number of recordings, the results may have more general significance both for the many other recordings of this earthquake and for data that will be obtained in the future from similar high-quality accelerograph networks now being installed or soon to be installed in many parts of the world.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2001

Influence of surface-normal ground acceleration on the initiation of the Jih-Feng-Erh-Shan landslide during the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake

The 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake triggered numerous landslides throughout a large area in the Central Range, to the east, southeast, and south of the fault rupture. Among them are two large rock avalanches, at Tsaoling and at Jih-Feng-Erh-Shan. At Jih-Feng-Erh-Shan, the entire thickness (30-50 m) of the Miocene Changhukeng Shale over an area of 1 km2 slid down its bedding plane for a distance of about 1 km. Initial movement of the landslide was nearly purely translational. We investigate the effect of surface-normal acceleration on the initiation of the Jih-Feng-Erh-Shan landslide using a block slide model. We show that this acceleration, currently not considered by dynamic slope-stability analysis methods, significantly influences the initiation of the landslide.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2001

CWB free-field strong-motion data from the 21 September Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake

The Chi-Chi earthquake occurred at 17:47 on 20 September 1999 and is the largest earthquake ( M W 7.6) to have occurred on land in Taiwan in the twentieth century. This earthquake caused considerable damage and was named the “921 Chi-Chi Great Earthquake” by the Taiwan government, as the local date was 21 September. Because an extensive strong-motion instrumentation program in Taiwan was completed by the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) in 1996, over 30,000 digital strong-motion records have been obtained from the Chi-Chi earthquake and thousands of its aftershocks. These records form the largest set of strong-motion data recorded from a major earthquake since strong-motion seismology studies began in the 1930s. This data set is important to seismology and earthquake engineering because it includes over 60 recording sites within 20 km of the fault ruptures, which provides a five-fold increase of such near-field records available for the entire world.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2001

Data files from “CWB Free-Field Strong-Motion Data from the 21 September Chi-Chi, Taiwan, Earthquake”

The Central Weather Bureau (CWB) of Taiwan completed a deployment of 1200 modern digital strong-motion instruments in 1996 at free-field sites and in buildings and bridges. Consequently, a very extensive set of strong-motion records were obtained for the M W = 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake in 1999, including over 60 near-field records within 20 km of the fault ruptures. For documentation purposes, we included all relevant data files on the attached CD-ROM from our article, “CWB Free-Field Strong-Motion Data from the 21 September Chi-Chi, Taiwan, Earthquake” in this issue. We presented the data in four different ways to make the data more user friendly: (1) the original recorded data by accelerograph type; (2) the processed data in ASCII text format; (3) the processed data in SUDS format; and (4) the processed data in SAC format. (1)-(3) are exactly the same as in Lee et al. ( 2001 ), except the files are zipped (or compressed). (4) is provided for users using the SAC software on a Unix computer, and it also contains waveform plots of the data in PDF files for ease of viewing. The attached CD contains the full report of Lee et al. ( 2001 ) in 25 PDF files for viewing or printing. This full report described the data set and the data processing performed in details. It also contains plots of all processed data with an index map showing the fault, mainshock location, and the station location. We also provided a readme.txt on the CDROM to augment this Short Note with further explanations. We classify the recorded data files into four quality groups. Since the recorded strong-motion data are based on a triggering algorithm, a main concern is the amount of pre-event data and whether or not the record is long enough to cover the entire duration of the ground shaking at that station. In addition, we are concerned whether or not the record has defects (e.g., spikes, or a component was not recorded), and whether or not the record has absolute timing. In general, QA-class records are the best and can be used for any studies. QB-class records are the next best, except most of them do not have absolute timing. QC-class records cover the principal strong motions but may not have adequate pre-event data and/or post strong-motion data. QD-class records have some defects; they are included here for completeness and should not be used for most studies. Since most A800 accelerographs have a colocated A900 or A900A accelerograph, the user should use the A900 or A900A data files whenever possible. There are a readme file and six subdirectories containing the data files described in our article on the attached CDROM, under the directory of \LeeWHK: (1) readme.txt: an ASCII text file of this Short Note and additional explanations. (2) DOCfiles (subdirectory): documentary files in PDF format for viewing, and some files in ASCII text format for use in data processing. User should view or print the Reportxx.pdf files which describe the Chi-Chi strong-motion data set in details (xx is a number from 01 through 25). (3) Software (subdirectory): containing computer programs from the accelerograph manufacturers for viewing and converting the original recorded data; they are grouped by manufacturer. (4) ORGfiles (subdirectory): the original recorded data files grouped by accelerograph types; these files are for archival purposes only. (5) SUDfiles (subdirectory): the processed strong-motion data files in PC-SUDS format, and are grouped by quality class. (6) ASCfiles (subdirectory): the processed strong-motion data files are in ASCII text format and are grouped by quality class. (7) SACfiles (subdirectory): the processed strong-motion data files are in SAC format and are grouped by quality class. Within each quality class, the data are given by station. Each station has two files—xxx.pdf for viewing the three-component strong-motion data, and xxx_SAC.zip, a WINZIP file containing three SAC data files corresponding to the three components of the recorded acceleration. We use “xxx” here to denote the station name.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2002

Geometry, slip distribution, and kinematics of surface rupture on the Sakarya fault segment during the 17 August 1999 İzmit, Turkey, earthquake

The M w 7.4 17 August 1999 İzmit earthquake ruptured five major fault segments of the dextral North Anatolian Fault Zone. The 26-km-long, N86°W-trending Sakarya fault segment (SFS) extends from the Sapanca releasing step-over in the west to near the town of Akyazi in the east. The SFS emerges from Lake Sapanca as two distinct fault traces that rejoin to traverse the Adapazari Plain to Akyazi. Offsets were measured across 88 cultural and natural features that cross the fault, such as roads, cornfield rows, rows of trees, walls, rails, field margins, ditches, vehicle ruts, a dike, and ground cracks. The maximum displacement observed for the İzmit earthquake (∼5.1 m) was encountered on this segment. Dextral displacement for the SFS rises from less than 1 m at Lake Sapanca to greater than 5 m near Arifiye, only 3 km away. Average slip decreases uniformly to the east from Arifiye until the fault steps left from Sagir to Kazanci to the N75°W, 6-km-long Akyazi strand, where slip drops to less than 1 m. The Akyazi strand passes eastward into the Akyazi Bend, which consists of a high-angle bend (18°-29°) between the Sakarya and Karadere fault segments, a 6-km gap in surface rupture, and high aftershock energy release. Complex structural geometries exist between the İzmit, Düzce, and 1967 Mudurnu fault segments that have arrested surface ruptures on timescales ranging from 30 sec to 88 days to 32 yr. The largest of these step-overs may have acted as a rupture segmentation boundary in previous earthquake cycles.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2002

Lateral offsets on surveyed cultural features resulting from the 1999 İzmit and Düzce earthquakes, Turkey

Surveys of offset linear cultural features that cross the surface ruptures of the 17 August and 12 November 1999 earthquakes on the North Anatolian fault in Turkey yield slip values as large as or larger than those recorded by near-field measurements in the same areas immediately after the earthquake. Using long, linear alignments of trees, fence lines, walls, and canals, we demonstrate as much as a 2-m increase in observed slip over the initial field measurements. On an average, we observed about 15% of the total lateral slip as off-fault deformation, with values ranging from 0% to 40% of the total slip. Part of this lateral deformation is accommodated by bending or drag in a zone as much as 30 m in width, although usually the zone varies between 5 and 20 m in width. This supports the idea that substantial nonbrittle, off-fault deformation is associated with ruptures in areas of alluvial fill. Alternatively, there may have been substantial afterslip, although none has been recognized on postearthquake repaired structures. Our observations suggest that postearthquake measurements of fault slip, using tape measures on offset geomorphic features, may underestimate the actual amount of slip in that event, where the nonlinearity of the offset feature does not allow recognition of the warping. Surveys of multiple tree lines within groves of poplar trees, planted in straight lines across the fault prior to the earthquake, show surprisingly large lateral variations. In one grove, slip increases by nearly 1.8 m, or 35% of the maximum measured value, over a lateral distance of nearly 100 m. This and other observations along the 1999 ruptures suggest that the lateral variability of slip observed from displaced geomorphic features in many earthquakes of the past may represent a combination of (1) actual differences in slip at the surface and (2) the difficulty in recognizing distributed nonbrittle deformation.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2002

The 1999 Izmit, Turkey, earthquake: A 3D dynamic stress transfer model of intraearthquake triggering

Before the August 1999 Izmit (Kocaeli), Turkey, earthquake, theoretical studies of earthquake ruptures and geological observations had provided estimates of how far an earthquake might jump to get to a neighboring fault. Both numerical simulations and geological observations suggested that 5 km might be the upper limit if there were no transfer faults. The Izmit earthquake appears to have followed these expectations. It did not jump across any step-over wider than 5 km and was instead stopped by a narrower step-over at its eastern end and possibly by a stress shadow caused by a historic large earthquake at its western end. Our 3D spontaneous rupture simulations of the 1999 Izmit earthquake provide two new insights: (1) the west- to east-striking fault segments of this part of the North Anatolian fault are oriented so as to be low-stress faults and (2) the easternmost segment involved in the August 1999 rupture may be dipping. An interesting feature of the Izmit earthquake is that a 5-km-long gap in surface rupture and an adjacent 25° restraining bend in the fault zone did not stop the earthquake. The latter observation is a warning that significant fault bends in strike-slip faults may not arrest future earthquakes.

Izmit↗
USGS2002

Site effects in Avcilar, West of Istanbul, Turkey, from strong- and weak-motion data

Approximately 1000 people were killed in the collapse of buildings in Istanbul, Turkey, during the 17 August 1999 I??zmit earthquake, whose epicenter was roughly 90 km east of the city. Most of the fatalities and damage occurred in the suburb of Avcilar that is 20 km further west of the epicenter than the city proper. To investigate this pattern of damage, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI), deployed portable digital seismographs at seven free-field sites in western Istanbul, to record aftershocks during the period from 24 August to 2 September. The primary objective of this deployment was to study the site effects by comparing the aftershock ground motions recorded at sites inside and outside the damaged area, and to correlate site effects with the distribution of the damaged buildings. In addition to using weak-motion data, mainshock and aftershock acceleration records from the KOERI permanent strong-motion array were also used in estimating the site effects. Site effects were estimated using S waves from both types of records. For the weak-motion data set, 22 events were selected according to the criteria of signal-to-noise ratio (S/N ratio) and the number of stations recording the same event. The magnitudes of these events ranged from 3.0 to 5.2. The acceleration data set consisted of 12 events with magnitudes ranging from 4.3 to 5.8 and included two mainshock events. Results show that the amplifying frequency band is, in general, less than 4 Hz, and the physical properties of the geologic materials are capable of amplifying the motions by a factor of 5-10. In this frequency band, there is a good agreement among the spectral ratios obtained from the two mainshocks and their aftershocks. The damage pattern for the 17 August I??zmit earthquake is determined by several factors. However, our study suggests that the site effects in Avcilar played an important role in contributing to the damage.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗