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At least 127 records · Page 7Linked to original sources
USGS2020

Variations in community evacuation potential related to average return periods in probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis

Tsunami risk management requires strategies that can address multiple sources with different recurrence intervals, wave-arrival times, and inundation extents. Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) provides a structured way to integrate multiple sources, including the uncertainties due to the natural variability and limited knowledge of sources. PTHA-based products relate to specific average return periods (ARP) and while there has been considerable attention paid to ARP choice for building codes, guidance on ARP choice to support evacuation planning and related land use is lacking. We use the State of California (USA) coastal communities as a case study to explore the use of geospatial analysis and pedestrian-evacuation modeling for comparing the societal implications of tsunamis based on evacuation areas that reflect inundation from 475-year, 975-year, and 2475-year ARPs. Results demonstrate that changes in PTHA ARP had a substantial effect on the number of tax-lot parcels in PTHA evacuation areas, but not on the primary land use of these parcels or which communities had the largest number of exposed parcels. Composite PTHA maps provided high-level insights on hazard exposure and identified dominant sources; however, disaggregated PTHA outputs that reflect single source parameters (e.g., wave-arrival time) were necessary to quantify evacuation potential from local and distant tsunamis. Framing changes in ARP assumption based on changes in the number, land-use type, and potential evacuation challenges of parcels in evacuation areas can provide valuable insight on the real-world implications of which ARP to use in land use or evacuation planning.

California↗
USGS2018

Integrating encounter theory with decision analysis to evaluate collision risk and determine optimal protection zones for wildlife

1.Better understanding human‐wildlife interactions and their links with management can help improve the design of wildlife protection zones. One example is the problem of wildlife collisions with vehicles or human‐built structures (e.g. power lines, wind farms). In fact, collisions between marine wildlife and watercraft are among the major threats faced by several endangered species of marine mammals. Natural resource managers are therefore interested in finding cost‐effective solutions to mitigate these threats. 2.We combined abundance estimators with encounter rate theory to estimate relative lethal collision risk of the Florida manatee ( Trichechus manatus latirostris ) from watercraft. We first modeled seasonal abundance of watercraft and manatees using a Bayesian analysis of aerial survey count data. We then modeled relative lethal collision risk in space and across seasons. Finally, we applied decision analysis and Linear Integer Programming to determine the optimal design of speed zones in terms of relative risk to manatees and costs to waterway users. We used a Pareto efficient frontier approach to evaluate the performance of alternative zones, which included additional practical considerations (e.g. spatial aggregation of speed zones) in relation to the optimal zone configurations. 3.Under the various relationships for probability of death given strike speed that we considered, the current speed zones reduced the relative lethal collision risk by an average of 51.5% to 70% compared to the scenario in which all speed regulations were removed (i.e. the no‐protection scenario). We identified optimal zones and near‐optimal zones with additional management considerations that improved upon the current zones in terms of cost or relative risk. 4.Policy Implications : Our analytical framework combines encounter rate theory and decision analysis to quantify the effectiveness of speed zones protecting manatees while accounting for uncertainty. Our approach can be used to optimize the design of protection zones intended to reduce conflicts between human waterborne activity and marine mammals. This framework could be extended to address many other problems of human‐wildlife interactions, such as the optimal placement of wind farms to minimize collisions with wildlife or the optimal allocation of ranger effort to mitigate poaching threats.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2011

I3N risk assessment and pathway analysis: Tools for the prevention of biological invasions

Information on invasive alien species from published and unpublished accounts and databases is usually scattered in locations and formats that are not easily accessible. Customized informatics tools for collecting and organizing invasive species information can help resource managers better control biological invasions. The Invasives Information Network (I3N) of the Inter-American Biodiversity Information Network has created a distributed network of databases of invasive species profiles, subject matter experts, projects, and datasets hosted and published online by natural resource institutions throughout the Americas. Invasive species information is documented and published online in a standard format that can be searched by the public. Profiles and occurrence information on invaders can be documented using the I3N Database on Invasive Alien Species, published online using an easy-to-use template, and exchanged in standard formats. The I3N Risk Assessment and Pathway Analysis tools are designed to be used in conjunction with I3N Databases to assist decision-makers in setting priorities for containment. All these tools are freely available online at http://i3n.iabin.net. Coordinated by the United States Geological Survey National Biological Information Infrastructure, this network serves as an example of successful capacity building and regional collaboration on an issue of global significance.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2013

Managing the effects of endocrine disrupting chemicals in wastewater-impacted streams

A revolution in analytical instrumentation circa 1920 greatly improved the ability to characterize chemical substances. This analytical foundation resulted in an unprecedented explosion in the design and production of synthetic chemicals during and post-World War II. What is now often referred to as the 2nd Chemical Revolution has provided substantial societal benefits; with modern chemical design and manufacturing supporting dramatic advances in medicine, increased food production, and expanding gross domestic products at the national and global scales as well as improved health, longevity, and lifestyle convenience at the individual scale. Presently, the chemical industry is the largest manufacturing sector in the United States (U.S.) and the second largest in Europe and Japan, representing approximately 5% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in each of these countries. At the turn of the 21st century, the chemical industry was estimated to be worth more than $1.6 trillion and to employ over 10 million people, globally. During the first half of the 20th century, the chemical sector expanded rapidly, the chemical industry enjoyed a generally positive status in society, and chemicals were widely appreciated as fundamental to individual and societal quality of life. Starting in the 1960s, however, the environmental costs associated with the chemical industry increasingly became the focus, due in part to the impact of books like “Silent Spring” and “Our Stolen Future” and to a number of highly publicized environmental disasters. Galvanizing chemical industry disasters included the 1976 dioxin leak north of Milan, Italy, the Love Canal evacuations in Niagara, New York beginning in 1978, and the Union Carbide leak in Bhopal, India in 1984. Understanding the environmental impact of synthetic compounds is essential to any informed assessment of net societal benefit, for the simple reason that any chemical substance that is in commercial production or use will eventually find its way to the environment. Not surprisingly given the direct link to profits, manufacturers intensely investigate and routinely document the potential benefits of new chemicals and chemical products. In contrast, the environmental risks associated with chemical production and uses are often investigated less intensely and are poorly communicated. An imbalance in the risk-benefit analysis of any synthetic chemical substance or naturally occurring chemical, which presence and concentration in the environment largely reflects human activities and management, is a particular concern owing to the fundamental link between chemistry and biology. Biological organisms are intrinsically a homeostatic balance of innumerable internal and external chemical interactions and, thus, inherently sensitive to changes in the external chemical environment.

Book chapter↗
USGS1997

Assessing aquifer contamination risk using immunoassay: Trace analysis of atrazine in unsaturated zone sediments

The vulnerability of a shallow aquifer in south-central Kansas to contamination by atrazine (2-chloro-4-ethylamino-6-isopropylamines-triazine) was assessed by analyzing unsaturated zone soil and sediment samples from about 60 dryland and irrigated sites using an ultrasensitive immunoassay (detection level of 0.02 µg/kg) with verification by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS). Samples were collected at depths of 0 to 1.2 m (i.e., the root zone), 1.2 to 1.8 m, and 1.8 to 3.0 m during two time periods-prior to planting and after harvest of crops. About 75% of the samples contained detectable concentrations of parent atrazine. At the shallow sampling depth, atrazine concentrations ranged from 0.5 to approximately 12 µg/kg. Atrazine concentrations at the intermediate (1.2-1.8 m) depth generally were <1.0 µg/kg, with most of the concentrations <0.10 µg/kg, which suggests substantial degradation of parent atrazine in the root zone. Likewise, atrazine concentrations front the deepest (1.8-3.0 m) depth ranged from <0.02 to 0.33 µg/kg. The metabolite deethylatrazine (2-amino-4-chloro-6- isopropylamine-s-triazine) was detected by GC/MS only in 2 of 60 samples with concentrations of 1.4 and 1.5 µg/kg. The reconnaissance survey shows that, in spite of atrazine use ranging from 1 to 5 or more years, there does not appear to he a significant buildup of parent compound below the root zone. Therefore, the unsaturated zone does not appear to be a major storage compartment of atrazine contamination for the underlying shallow aquifer.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗
USGS2020

Expert-informed habitat suitability analysis for at-risk species assessment and conservation planning

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) is responsible for reviewing the biological status of hundreds of species to determine federal status designations under the Endangered Species Act. The longleaf pine Pinus palustris ecological system supports many priority at-risk species designated for review, including five species of herpetofauna: gopher tortoise Gopherus polyphemus , southern hognose snake Heterodon simus , Florida pine snake Pituophis melanoleucus mugitus , gopher frog Lithobates ( Rana ) capito , and striped newt Notophthalmus perstriatus . To inform status decisions and conservation planning, we developed habitat suitability models to 1) identify habitat features that best predict species presence and 2) estimate the amount and distribution of suitable habitat across each species' range under current conditions. We incorporated expert judgment from federal, state, and other partners to capture variation in ecological settings across species' ranges, prioritize predictor variables to test in models, mitigate data limitations by informing the selection of pseudoabsence points, qualitatively evaluate model estimates, and improve the likelihood that experts will trust and use model predictions for conservation. Soil characteristics, land cover, and fire interval strongly influenced habitat suitability for all species. Suitable habitat was distributed on known species strongholds, as well as private lands without known species records. Between 4.7% (gopher frog) and 14.6% (gopher tortoise) of the area in a species' range was classified as suitable habitat, and between 28.1% (southern hognose snake) and 47.5% (gopher frog) of suitable habitat was located in patches larger than 1 km 2 (100 ha) on publicly owned lands. By overlaying predictions for each species, we identified areas of suitable habitat for multiple species on protected and unprotected lands. These results have direct applications to management and conservation planning: partners can tailor site-level management based on attributes associated with high habitat suitability for species of concern; allocate survey effort in areas with suitable habitat but no known species records; and identify priority areas for management, land acquisitions, or other strategies based on the distribution of species records, suitable habitat, and land protection status. These results can aid regional partners in implementing effective conservation strategies and inform status designation decisions of the USFWS.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi,↗
USGS2017

Play-fairway analysis for geothermal resources and exploration risk in the Modoc Plateau region

The region surrounding the Modoc Plateau, encompassing parts of northeastern California, southern Oregon, and northwestern Nevada, lies at an intersection between two tectonic provinces; the Basin and Range province and the Cascade volcanic arc. Both of these provinces have substantial geothermal resource base and resource potential. Geothermal systems with evidence of magmatic heat, associated with Cascade arc magmatism, typify the western side of the region. Systems on the eastern side of the region appear to be fault controlled with heat derived from high crustal heat flow, both of which are typical of the Basin and Range. As it has the potential to host Cascade arc-type geothermal resources, Basin and Range-type geothermal resources, and/or resources with characteristics of both provinces, and because there is relatively little current development, the Modoc Plateau region represents an intriguing potential for undiscovered geothermal resources. It remains unclear however, what specific set(s) of characteristics are diagnostic of Modoc-type geothermal systems and how or if those characteristics are distinct from Basin and Range-type or Cascade arc-type geothermal systems. In order to evaluate the potential for undiscovered geothermal resources in the Modoc area, we integrate a wide variety of existing data in order to evaluate geothermal resource potential and exploration risk utilizing ‘play-fairway’ analysis. We consider that the requisite parameters for hydrothermal circulation are: 1) heat that is sufficient to drive circulation, and 2) permeability that is sufficient to allow for fluid circulation in the subsurface. We synthesize data that indicate the extent and distribution of these parameters throughout the Modoc region. ‘Fuzzy logic’ is used to incorporate expert opinion into the utility of each dataset as an indicator of either heat or permeability, and thus geothermal favorability. The results identify several geothermal prospects, areas that are highly favorable for the occurrence of both heat and permeability. These are also areas where there is sufficient data coverage, quality, and consistency that the exploration risk is relatively low. These unknown, undeveloped, and under-developed prospects are well-suited for continued exploration efforts. The results also indicate to what degree the two ‘play-types,’ i.e. Cascade arc-type or Basin and Range-type, apply to each of the geothermal prospects, a useful guide in exploration efforts.

Modoc Plateau↗
USGS2012

Competing risks and the development of adaptive management plans for water resources: Field reconnaissance investigation of risks to fishes and other aquatic biota exposed to endocrine disrupting chemicals (edcs) in lake mead, Nevada USA

The analysis and characterization of competing risks for water resources rely on a wide spectrum of tools to evaluate hazards and risks associated with their management. For example, waters of the lower Colorado River stored in reservoirs such as Lake Mead present a wide range of competing risks related to water quantity and water quality. These risks are often interdependent and complicated by competing uses of source waters for sustaining biological resources and for supporting a range of agricultural, municipal, recreational, and industrial uses. USGS is currently conducting a series of interdisciplinary case-studies on water quality of Lake Mead and its source waters. In this case-study we examine selected constituents potentially entering the Lake Mead system, particularly endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs). Worldwide, a number of environmental EDCs have been identified that affect reproduction, development, and adaptive behaviors in a wide range of organisms. Many EDCs are minimally affected by current treatment technologies and occur in treated sewage effluents. Several EDCs have been detected in Lake Mead, and several substances have been identified that are of concern because of potential impacts to the aquatic biota, including the sport fishery of Lake Mead and endangered razorback suckers (Xyrauchen texanus) that occur in the Colorado River system. For example, altered biomarkers relevant to reproduction and thyroid function in fishes have been observed and may be predictive of impaired metabolism and development. Few studies, however, have addressed whether such EDC-induced responses observed in the field have an ecologically significant effect on the reproductive success of fishes. To identify potential linkages between EDCs and species of management concern, the risk analysis and characterization in this reconnaissance study focused on effects (and attendant uncertainties) that might be expressed by exposed populations. In addition, risk reduction measures that may be of interest to resource managers are considered relative to emerging contaminants in treated effluents, interdependencies among biological resources at risk, and uses of reservoir waters derived from multiple inflows of widely varying qualities. ??2009 ASCE.

Nevada↗
USGS2016

Spatiotemporal patterns of duck nest density and predation risk: a multi-scale analysis of 18 years and more than 10,000 nests

Many avian species are behaviorally-plastic in selecting nest sites, and may shift to new locations or habitats following an unsuccessful breeding attempt. If there is predictable spatial variation in predation risk, the process of many individuals using prior experience to adaptively change nest sites may scale up to create shifting patterns of nest density at a population level. We used 18 years of waterfowl nesting data to assess whether there were areas of consistently high or low predation risk, and whether low-risk areas increased, and high-risk areas decreased in nest density the following year. We created kernel density maps of successful and unsuccessful nests in consecutive years and found no correlation in predation risk and no evidence for adaptive shifts, although nest density was correlated between years. We also examined between-year correlations in nest density and nest success at three smaller spatial scales: individual nesting fields (10–28 ha), 16-ha grid cells and 4-ha grid cells. Here, results were similar across all scales: we found no evidence for year-to-year correlation in nest success but found strong evidence that nest density was correlated between years, and areas of high nest success increased in nest density the following year. Prior research in this system has demonstrated that areas of high nest density have higher nest success, and taken together, our results suggest that ducks may adaptively select nest sites based on the local density of conspecifics, rather than the physical location of last year's nest. In unpredictable environments, current cues, such as the presence of active conspecific nests, may be especially useful in selecting nest sites. The cues birds use to select breeding locations and successfully avoid predators deserve continued attention, especially in systems of conservation concern.

Oikos↗
USGS2000

Regional interdisciplinary paleoflood approach to assess extreme flood potential

In the past decade, there has been a growing interest of dam safety officials to incorporate a risk‐based analysis for design‐flood hydrology. Extreme or rare floods, with probabilities in the range of about 10 −3 to 10 −7 chance of occurrence per year, are of continuing interest to the hydrologic and engineering communities for purposes of planning and design of structures such as dams [ National Research Council , 1988]. The National Research Council stresses that as much information as possible about floods needs to be used for evaluation of the risk and consequences of any decision. A regional interdisciplinary paleoflood approach was developed to assist dam safety officials and floodplain managers in their assessments of the risk of large floods. The interdisciplinary components included documenting maximum paleofloods and a regional analyses of contemporary extreme rainfall and flood data to complement a site‐specific probable maximum precipitation study [ Tomlinson and Solak , 1997]. The cost‐effective approach, which can be used in many other hydrometeorologic settings, was applied to Elkhead Reservoir in Elkhead Creek (531 km 2 ) in northwestern Colorado; the regional study area was 10,900 km 2 . Paleoflood data using bouldery flood deposits and noninundation surfaces for 88 streams were used to document maximum flood discharges that have occurred during the Holocene. Several relative dating methods were used to determine the age of paleoflood deposits and noninundation surfaces. No evidence of substantial flooding was found in the study area. The maximum paleoflood of 135 m 3 s −1 for Elkhead Creek is about 13% of the site‐specific probable maximum flood of 1020 m 3 s −1 . Flood‐frequency relations using the expected moments algorithm, which better incorporates paleoflood data, were developed to assess the risk of extreme floods. Envelope curves encompassing maximum rainfall (181 sites) and floods (218 sites) were developed for northwestern Colorado to help define maximum contemporary and Holocene flooding in Elkhead Creek and in a regional frequency context. Study results for Elkhead Reservoir were accepted by the Colorado State Engineer for dam safety certification.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2006

Performance assessments of nuclear waste repositories: A dialogue on their value and limitations

Performance Assessment (PA) is the use of mathematical models to simulate the long-term behavior of engineered and geologic barriers in a nuclear waste repository; methods of uncertainty analysis are used to assess effects of parametric and conceptual uncertainties associated with the model system upon the uncertainty in outcomes of the simulation. PA is required by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as part of its certification process for geologic repositories for nuclear waste. This paper is a dialogue to explore the value and limitations of PA. Two “skeptics” acknowledge the utility of PA in organizing the scientific investigations that are necessary for confident siting and licensing of a repository; however, they maintain that the PA process, at least as it is currently implemented, is an essentially unscientific process with shortcomings that may provide results of limited use in evaluating actual effects on public health and safety. Conceptual uncertainties in a PA analysis can be so great that results can be confidently applied only over short time ranges, the antithesis of the purpose behind long-term, geologic disposal. Two “proponents” of PA agree that performance assessment is unscientific, but only in the sense that PA is an engineering analysis that uses existing scientific knowledge to support public policy decisions, rather than an investigation intended to increase fundamental knowledge of nature; PA has different goals and constraints than a typical scientific study. The “proponents” describe an ideal, sixstep process for conducting generalized PA, here called probabilistic systems analysis (PSA); they note that virtually all scientific content of a PA is introduced during the model-building steps of a PSA, they contend that a PA based on simple but scientifically acceptable mathematical models can provide useful and objective input to regulatory decision makers. The value of the results of any PA must lie between these two views and will depend on the level of knowledge of the site, the degree to which models capture actual physical and chemical processes, the time over which extrapolations are made, and the proper evaluation of health risks attending implementation of the repository. The challenge is in evaluating whether the quality of the PA matches the needs of decision makers charged with protecting the health and safety of the public.

Risk Analysis↗
USGS2018

China, the United States, and competition for resources that enable emerging technologies

Historically, resource conflicts have often centered on fuel minerals (particularly oil). Future resource conflicts may, however, focus more on competition for nonfuel minerals that enable emerging technologies. Whether it is rhenium in jet engines, indium in flat panel displays, or gallium in smart phones, obscure elements empower smarter, smaller, and faster technologies, and nations seek stable supplies of these and other nonfuel minerals for their industries. No nation has all of the resources it needs domestically. International trade may lead to international competition for these resources if supplies are deemed at risk or insufficient to satisfy growing demand, especially for minerals used in technologies important to economic development and national security. Here, we compare the net import reliance of China and the United States to inform mineral resource competition and foreign supply risk. Our analysis indicates that China relies on imports for over half of its consumption for 19 of 42 nonfuel minerals, compared with 24 for the United States—11 of which are common to both. It is for these 11 nonfuel minerals that competition between the United States and China may become the most contentious, especially for those with highly concentrated production that prove irreplaceable in pivotal emerging technologies.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗
USGS2006

Health-based screening levels to evaluate U.S. Geological Survey ground water quality data

Federal and state drinking‐water standards and guidelines do not exist for many contaminants analyzed by the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water‐Quality Assessment Program, limiting the ability to evaluate the potential human‐health relevance of water‐quality findings. Health‐based screening levels (HBSLs) were developed collaboratively to supplement existing drinking‐water standards and guidelines as part of a six‐year, multi‐agency pilot study. The pilot study focused on ground water samples collected prior to treatment or blending in areas of New Jersey where groundwater is the principal source of drinking water. This article describes how HBSLs were developed and demonstrates the use of HBSLs as a tool for evaluating water‐quality data in a human‐health context. HBSLs were calculated using standard U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) methodologies and toxicity information. New HBSLs were calculated for 12 of 32 contaminants without existing USEPA drinking‐water standards or guidelines, increasing the number of unregulated contaminants (those without maximum contaminant levels (MCLs)) with human‐health benchmarks. Concentrations of 70 of the 78 detected contaminants with human‐health benchmarks were less than MCLs or HBSLs, including all 12 contaminants with new HBSLs, suggesting that most contaminant concentrations were not of potential human‐health concern. HBSLs were applied to a state‐scale groundwater data set in this study, but HBSLs also may be applied to regional and national evaluations of water‐quality data. HBSLs fulfill a critical need for federal, state, and local agencies, water utilities, and others who seek tools for evaluating the occurrence of contaminants without drinking‐water standards or guidelines.

Risk Analysis↗
USGS2018

Evaluating potential distribution of high-risk aquatic invasive species in the water garden and aquarium trade at a global scale based on current established populations

Aquatic non‐native invasive species are commonly traded in the worldwide water garden and aquarium markets, and some of these species pose major threats to the economy, the environment, and human health. Understanding the potential suitable habitat for these species at a global scale and at regional scales can inform risk assessments and predict future potential establishment. Typically, global habitat suitability models are fit for freshwater species with only climate variables, which provides little information about suitable terrestrial conditions for aquatic species. Remotely sensed data including topography and land cover data have the potential to improve our understanding of suitable habitat for aquatic species. In this study, we fit species distribution models using five different model algorithms for three non‐native aquatic invasive species with bioclimatic, topographic, and remotely sensed covariates to evaluate potential suitable habitat beyond simple climate matches. The species examined included a frog (Xenopus laevis), toad (Bombina orientalis), and snail (Pomacea spp.). Using a unique modeling approach for each species including background point selection based on known established populations resulted in robust ensemble habitat suitability models. All models for all species had test area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values greater than 0.70 and percent correctly classified values greater than 0.65. Importantly, we employed multivariate environmental similarity surface maps to evaluate potential extrapolation beyond observed conditions when applying models globally. These global models provide necessary forecasts of where these aquatic invasive species have the potential for establishment outside their native range, a key component in risk analyses.

Risk Analysis↗
USGS2026

Perceptions of parcel-level wildfire risk differ between homeowners and trained assessors in wildland-urban interface communities across the western United States

Wildfire risk mitigation on private property is central to reducing community wildfire vulnerability. Homeowners have control over many of the key factors that contribute to wildfire risk on their parcels, yet vulnerable conditions persist. One potential explanation is a misalignment between homeowners' and trained assessors' perceptions of parcel-level wildfire risk. Prior research has documented a “risk gap” in a single community wherein owners often underestimate their parcel-level wildfire risk; however, it is unclear whether such misalignments are widespread. This study replicates and expands previous research by examining the parcel-level wildfire risk gap in 38 wildland–urban interface (WUI) communities across the Western United States using paired data from household surveys and parcel-level wildfire risk assessments by trained assessors. We find that homeowners and assessors often perceive parcel characteristics differently. Homeowners may systematically mis-weight their importance, tending to underweight key controllable factors such as building materials and defensible space, leading to meaningful divergence from trained assessor ratings. Accordingly, we also find that homeowners generally underestimate overall parcel wildfire risk compared to trained assessors. These results suggest that even when homeowners recognize attributes on their parcels that contribute to wildfire risk, they may not fully grasp how much the attributes contribute to overall parcel risk, potentially failing to recognize the need to undertake meaningful mitigation actions. The findings from this study contribute to the broader natural hazards literature on expert-layperson risk perception gaps and offer insights for improving wildfire communication, education, and mitigation strategies in WUI communities.

Alaska, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗
USGS2005

Review of the transport of selected radionuclides in the interim risk assessment for the Radioactive Waste Management Complex, Waste Area Group 7 Operable Unit 7-13/14, Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory, Idaho

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) requested that the U.S. Geological Survey conduct an independent technical review of the Interim Risk Assessment (IRA) and Contaminant Screening for the Waste Area Group 7 (WAG-7) Remedial Investigation, the draft Addendum to the Work Plan for Operable Unit 7-13/14 WAG-7 comprehensive Remedial Investigation and Feasibility Study (RI/FS), and supporting documents that were prepared by Lockheed Martin Idaho Technologies, Inc. The purpose of the technical review was to assess the data and geotechnical approaches that were used to estimate future risks associated with the release of the actinides americium, uranium, neptunium, and plutonium to the Snake River Plain aquifer from wastes buried in pits and trenches at the Subsurface Disposal Area (SDA). The SDA is located at the Radioactive Waste Management Complex in southeastern Idaho within the boundaries of the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory. Radionuclides have been buried in pits and trenches at the SDA since 1957 and 1952, respectively. Burial of transuranic wastes was discontinued in 1982. The five specific tasks associated with this review were defined in a ?Proposed Scope of Work? prepared by the DOE, and a follow-up workshop held in June 1998. The specific tasks were (1) to review the radionuclide sampling data to determine how reliable and significant are the reported radionuclide detections and how reliable is the ongoing sampling program, (2) to assess the physical and chemical processes that logically can be invoked to explain true detections, (3) to determine if distribution coefficients that were used in the IRA are reliable and if they have been applied properly, (4) to determine if transport model predictions are technically sound, and (5) to identify issues needing resolution to determine technical adequacy of the risk assessment analysis, and what additional work is required to resolve those issues.

Idaho↗
USGS1997

Hydrogeology and water quality of the Shell Valley Aquifer, Rolette County, North Dakota

The Shell Valley aquifer is the sole source of water for the city of Belcourt and the primary source of water for most of the Turtle Mountain Indian Reservation. The Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa Indians is concerned about the quantity and quality of water in the Shell Valley aquifer, which underlies about 56 square miles in central Rolette County and has an average saturated thickness of about 35 feet. Water levels across most of the Shell Valley aquifer fluctuate with variations in precipitation but generally are stable. Withdrawals from the north well field decreased slightly during 1976-95, but withdrawals from the south well field increased during 1983-95. Water levels in the south well field declined as withdrawals increased. The average decline during the last 8 years was about 1.75 feet per year. The water level has reached the well screen in at least one of the production wells. Most of the water in the aquifer is a bicarbonate type and has dissolved-solids concentrations ranging from 479 to 1,510 milligrams per liter. None of the samples analyzed had detectable concentrations of pesticides, but hydrocarbons were detected in both ground- and surfacewater samples. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) were the most frequently detected hydrocarbons. Benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene (BTEX), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB), and pentachlorophenol (PCP) also were detected. Generally, the Shell Valley aquifer is an adequate source of water for current needs, but evaluation of withdrawals in relation to a knowledge of aquifer hydrology would be important in quantifying sustainable water supplies. Water quality in the aquifer generally is good; the Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa Indians filters the water to reduce concentrations of dissolved constituents. Hydrocarbons, although present in the aquifer, have not been quantified and may not pose a general health risk. Further analysis of the quantity and distribution of the hydrocarbons would be useful to understand their sources and implications for water use.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS2024

Climate change and collapsing thermal niches of desert reptiles and amphibians: Assisted migration and acclimation rescue from extirpation

Recent climate change should result in expansion of species to northern or high elevation range margins, and contraction at southern and low elevation margins in the northern hemisphere, because of local extirpations or range shifts or both. We combined museum occurrence records from both the continental U.S. and Mexico with a new eco-physiological model of extinction developed for lizard families of the world to predict the distributions of 30 desert-endemic reptile and amphibian species under climate change scenarios. The model predicts that 38 % of local populations will go extinct in the next 50 years, across all 30 species. However, extinctions may be attenuated in forested sites and by the presence of montane environments in contemporary ranges. Of the 30 species, three were at very high risk of extinction as a result of their thermal limits being exceeded, which illustrates the predictive value of ecophysiological modeling approaches for conservation studies. In tandem with global strategies of limiting CO2 emissions, we propose urgent regional management strategies for existing and new reserves that are targeted at three species: Barred Tiger Salamander (Ambystomatidae: Ambystoma mavortium stebbinsi), Desert Short-horned Lizard (Phrynosomatidae: Phrynosoma ornatissimum), and Morafka's Desert Tortoise (Testudinidae: Gopherus morafkai), which face a high risk of extinction by 2070. These strategies focus on assisted migration and preservation within climatic refugia, such as high-elevation and forested habitats. We forecast where new reserves should be established by merging our model of extinction risk with gap analysis. We also highlight that acclimation (i.e., phenotypic plasticity) could ameliorate risk of extinction but is rarely included in ecophysiological models. We use Ambystoma salamanders to show how acclimation can be incorporated into such models of extinction risk.

Science of the Total Environment↗