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The oilspill risk analysis model of the U. S. Geological Survey

The U.S. Geological Survey has developed an oilspill risk analysis model to aid in estimating the environmental hazards of developing oil resources in Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lease areas. The large, computerized model analyzes the probability of spill occurrence, as well as the likely paths or trajectories of spills in relation to the locations of recreational and biological resources which may be vulnerable. The analytical methodology can easily incorporate estimates of weathering rates , slick dispersion, and possible mitigating effects of cleanup. The probability of spill occurrence is estimated from information on the anticipated level of oil production and method of route of transport. Spill movement is modeled in Monte Carlo fashion with a sample of 500 spills per season, each transported by monthly surface current vectors and wind velocities sampled from 3-hour wind transition matrices. Transition matrices are based on historic wind records grouped in 41 wind velocity classes, and are constructed seasonally for up to six wind stations. Locations and monthly vulnerabilities of up to 31 categories of environmental resources are digitized within an 800,000 square kilometer study area. Model output includes tables of conditional impact probabilities (that is, the probability of hitting a target, given that a spill has occurred), as well as probability distributions for oilspills occurring and contacting environmental resources within preselected vulnerability time horizons. (USGS)

Professional Paper

Isotopic study of galenas from the upper Mississippi Valley, the Illinois-Kentucky, and some Appalachian Valley mineral districts

Analyses of lead isotopes in galena in carbonate rock ore deposits collected from several mineralized districts in the Central and Eastern Interior of the United States support previous studies in establishing that the galena is anomalously radiogenic ("J"type")- This study , using care-fully selected samples to test some géologie relationships, shows region-wide and distrietwide systematic variations in isotope ratios. The genetic implications of thèse variations are discussed. Two mechanisms of origin are considered to explain thèse variations in isotopic ratios. One involves mixing of leads from multiple sources, the other calls for variable lead-isotope ratios originating from a single source. Several source materials for the lead ores have been suggested; whether a single source has predominated, or two or more main sources have predominated is still unresolved. Slopes from Pb206/Pb204 versus Pb207/Pb204 plot are compatible with a contribution of lead by the 1300 ± 300 m.y. basement rocks that underlie the deposits. The spatial relationships of alkaline igneous rocks to several of the minerai districts in the Mississippi Valley région suggest a possible mag-matic source for the lead. Isotopic analyses of galenas closely associated with several of the intrusive rocks are similar in isotopic composition to adjacent ore leads, but genetic implications are ambiguous. Galena oc-curring in shales in the Mississippi Valley région outside mineralized districts contains ordinary lead. Théories that call upon such shales to be the major source of the lead in the depoaits of the Mississippi Valley type must explain this distinct différence in isotopic compositions. Galena collected from districts within the Appalachian Ridge and Valley Province contains notably less radiogenic lead than that from the Mississippi Valley minerai districts , and the lead is of the ordinary type.

Illinois, Kentucky

The ecology of methane in streams and rivers: Patterns, controls, and global significance

Streams and rivers can substantially modify organic carbon (OC) inputs from terrestrial landscapes, and much of this processing is the result of microbial respiration. While carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is the major end-product of ecosystem respiration, methane (CH 4 ) is also present in many fluvial environments even though methanogenesis typically requires anoxic conditions that may be scarce in these systems. Given recent recognition of the pervasiveness of this greenhouse gas in streams and rivers, we synthesized existing research and data to identify patterns and drivers of CH 4 , knowledge gaps, and research opportunities. This included examining the history of lotic CH 4 research, creating a database of concentrations and fluxes (MethDB) to generate a global-scale estimate of fluvial CH 4 efflux, and developing a conceptual framework and using this framework to consider how human activities may modify fluvial CH 4 dynamics. Current understanding of CH 4 in streams and rivers has been strongly influenced by goals of understanding OC processing and quantifying the contribution of CH 4 to ecosystem C fluxes. Less effort has been directed towards investigating processes that dictate in situ CH 4 production and loss. CH 4 makes a meager contribution to watershed or landscape C budgets, but streams and rivers are often significant CH 4 sources to the atmosphere across these same spatial extents. Most fluvial systems are supersaturated with CH 4 and we estimate an annual global emission of 26.8 Tg CH 4 , equivalent to ~15-40% of wetland and lake effluxes, respectively. Less clear is the role of CH 4 oxidation, methanogenesis, and total anaerobic respiration to whole ecosystem production and respiration. Controls on CH 4 generation and persistence can be viewed in terms of proximate controls that influence methanogenesis (organic matter, temperature, alternative electron acceptors, nutrients) and distal geomorphic and hydrologic drivers. Multiple controls combined with its extreme redox status and low solubility result in high spatial and temporal variance of CH 4 in fluvial environments, which presents a substantial challenge for understanding its larger-scale dynamics. Further understanding of CH 4 production and consumption, anaerobic metabolism, and ecosystem energetics in streams and rivers can be achieved through more directed studies and comparison with knowledge from terrestrial, wetland, and aquatic disciplines.

Ecological Monographs

Sediments, structural framework, petroleum potential, environmental conditions, and operational considerations of the United States North Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf

The area designated for possible oil and gas lease sale as modified from BLM memorandum 3310 #42 (722) and referred to therein as the North Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) contains about 58,300 sq km of shelf beneath water depths of less than 200 m and lies chiefly within the Georges Bank basin. The oldest sediments drilled or dredged on the bordering Continental Slope are sandstone, clay, and silt of Upper Cretaceous age. In Upper Cretaceous exposures, on Marthas Vineyard and nearby New England islands, the predominant lithology appears to be clay. About 125 km northeast of the eastern tip of Georges Bank, the Shell B-93 well penetrated clays and silts of Upper and Lower Cretaceous age above dense Jurassic carbonate rocks which overlie a basement of lower Paleozoic slate, schist, quartzite, and granite. Structurally, the Georges Bank basin is a westerly trending trough which opens to the west-southwest. Post-Paleozoic sediments are more than 8 km thick in parts of the basin. Major structural features appear to be directly related to basement structures. Local anticlines, probably caused by differential compaction over basement flexures and horst blocks or by later uplift along basement faults are reflected principally in Lower Cretaceous and older sediments, though some of these features continue upward to within 0.7 of a second (about 650 m) of the seafloor. Tertiary deposits in the Georges Bank basin are probably up to a kilometre thick and are made up of poorly consolidated sand, silt, and clay. The Cretaceous section is inferred to be up to 3.5 km thick and to be mainly clastics -- shale, siltstone, calcareous shale, changing to limestone in the lowest part of the system. Jurassic rocks in the deepest part of the basin appear to be about 3.6 to 4.0 km thick and probably consist mainly of dense carbonates. Potential source rocks in the Georges Bank basin may include organic-rich Cretaceous shale and carbonaceous Jurassic limestone. By analogy with the Scotian Shelf, Cretaceous sandstones are considered to be potential reservoir rocks. Local zones of porous dolomite are believed to be present in carbonate rocks of Jurassic age and should not be overlooked as potential reservoirs. Structural highs related to draping and differential compaction over basement blocks could be important potential petroleum traps. Additional traps may include reef structures near the shelf edge, updip pinchouts, and stratigraphic traps in both clastic and carbonate sediment. A statistical mean for the undiscovered recoverable petroleum resources is calculated to be 0.9 billion barrels of oil and 4.2 trillion cubic feet of gas. At the 5 percent probability level (1 in 20 chance) the undiscovered recoverable petroleum resources are calculated to be 2.4 billion barrels of oil and 12.5 trillion cubic feet of gas. These undiscovered recoverable petroleum resources are those quantities of oil and gas that may be reasonably expected to exist in favorable settings, but which have not yet been identified by drilling. Such estimates, therefore, carry a high degree of uncertainty. Environmental studies of Georges Bank indicated a low-moderate risk from petroleum development. However, the risk estimate is based on very limited data. Drift bottle returns used to infer oil spill trajectories show about a 2% overall recovery rate. Meteorologic data comes mainly from nearby land areas and from ships attempting to avoid storms. Seismicity on Georges Bank is low. This may reflect, in large part, the difficulty of land-based stations in recording earthquakes far from the coast. Direct data on the engineering properties of shallow buried sediment comes mainly from two Texas Tower surveys of limited areas on Georges Shoal and Nantucket Shoals made in the early 1950's. The 17 holes (most less than 30 m deep) reveal some silty layers below loose sand and much lateral variability in sediment type over short distances. The technology for exploration at the required water depths (20 m - 200 m) is available. Mobil drilling units are in great demand around the world and will have to be brought in from other areas along with skilled manpower. Our highest estimates indicate 50 platforms, 800 producing wells, 1,100 km of pipeline, and 5 onshore terminals may be needed. The time frame for production, using our high estimates (5% probability) for the undiscovered recoverable resources, could include 4-5 years for significant development, 6-7 years until production commences, and 18 years until peak production.

Open-File Report