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National Research Program of the Water Resources Division, U.S. Geological Survey, Fiscal Year 1993

INTRODUCTION This report, one in a series of annual reports, provides current information about the National Research Program (NRP) of the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Water Resources Division (WRD) during fiscal year 1993. Organized by NRP's six research disciplines, the volume contains a summary of the problem, objective, approach, and progress for each project that was active during fiscal year 1993. It also contains bibliographic information that, because of the long-term nature of the program, covers a 5-year period. The bibliographic information does not include abstracts or informal reports. Rather it contains those reports that are readily available in the form of journal articles, USGS publications, book chapters, or books.

Open-File Report↗

Telemetry evaluation of carbon dioxide as a behavioral deterrent for invasive carps

Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) mixed into water is being explored as a possible management strategy to deter the upstream movements of invasive carps through navigation locks and other migratory pinch-points. This study used two-dimensional acoustic telemetry to assess the effectiveness of dissolved CO 2 as a chemosensory deterrent to two carp species in a large U-shaped pond. Free-swimming movements of telemetered bighead carp ( Hypophthalmichthys nobilis ) and grass carp ( Ctenopharyngodon idella ) were documented 24 h before treatment and 24 h during treatments at 60, 121 and 213 mg/L CO 2 (mean concentrations in pond water). Several behavioral endpoints were then quantified and compared to evaluate deterrence efficacy. In general, results showed that both carp species responded similarly to CO 2 treatments. Carps consistently relocated into areas away from the injection site and made fewer attempts to re-enter CO 2 treated areas. On average, CO 2 treatments reduced mid-line crosses between untreated and treated sides of the pond by 58% at 121 mg/L CO 2 and 78% at 213 mg/L CO 2 relative to normal swimming movements recorded before treatment. Fish swim speeds increased significantly when inside the CO 2 plume during treatments during 213 mg/L CO 2 trials relative to swim speeds outside the plume, possibly indicative of active searching and avoidance responses. Overall, this study found that CO 2 altered the behavior of bighead carp and grass carp. Natural resource agencies could consider the CO 2 concentrations identified in this study to inform future applications to deter invasive carps from locations where they are at-risk to move upstream.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

Methane hydrates in nature - Current knowledge and challenges

Recognizing the importance of methane hydrate research and the need for a coordinated effort, the United States Congress enacted the Methane Hydrate Research and Development Act of 2000. At the same time, the Ministry of International Trade and Industry in Japan launched a research program to develop plans for a methane hydrate exploratory drilling project in the Nankai Trough. India, China, the Republic of Korea, and other nations also have established large methane hydrate research and development programs. Government-funded scientific research drilling expeditions and production test studies have provided a wealth of information on the occurrence of methane hydrates in nature. Numerous studies have shown that the amount of gas stored as methane hydrates in the world may exceed the volume of known organic carbon sources. However, methane hydrates represent both a scientific and technical challenge, and much remains to be learned about their characteristics and occurrence in nature. Methane hydrate research in recent years has mostly focused on: (1) documenting the geologic parameters that control the occurrence and stability of methane hydrates in nature, (2) assessing the volume of natural gas stored within various methane hydrate accumulations, (3) analyzing the production response and characteristics of methane hydrates, (4) identifying and predicting natural and induced environmental and climate impacts of natural methane hydrates, (5) analyzing the methane hydrate role as a geohazard, (6) establishing the means to detect and characterize methane hydrate accumulations using geologic and geophysical data, and (7) establishing the thermodynamic phase equilibrium properties of methane hydrates as a function of temperature, pressure, and gas composition. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the Consortium for Ocean Leadership (COL) combined their efforts in 2012 to assess the contributions that scientific drilling has made and could continue to make to advance our understanding of methane hydrates in nature. COL assembled a Methane Hydrate Project Science Team with members from academia, industry, and government. This Science Team worked with COL and DOE to develop and host the Methane Hydrate Community Workshop, which surveyed a substantial cross section of the methane hydrate research community for input on the most important research developments in our understanding of methane hydrates in nature and their potential role as an energy resource, a geohazard, and/or as an agent of global climate change. Our understanding of how methane hydrates occur in nature is still growing and evolving, and it is known with certainty that field, laboratory, and modeling studies have contributed greatly to our understanding of hydrates in nature and will continue to be a critical source of the information needed to advance our understanding of methane hydrates.

Journal of Chemical and Engineering Data↗

Power distribution in complex environmental negotiations: Does balance matter?

We studied six interagency negotiations covering Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) hydroelectric power licenses. Negotiations occurred between state and federal resource agencies and developers over project operations and natural resource mitigation. We postulated that a balance of power among parties was necessary for successful negotiations. We found a complex relationship between balanced power and success and conclude that a balance of power was associated with success in these negotiations. Power played a dynamic role in the bargaining and illuminates important considerations for regulatory design.

Journal of Public Administration Research and Theo↗

Evaluating a multispecies adaptive management framework: Must uncertainty impede effective decision-making?

Application of adaptive management to complex natural resource systems requires careful evaluation to ensure that the process leads to improved decision-making. As part of that evaluation, adaptive policies can be compared with alternative nonadaptive management scenarios. Also, the value of reducing structural (ecological) uncertainty to achieving management objectives can be quantified. A multispecies adaptive management framework was recently adopted by the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission for sustainable harvest of Delaware Bay horseshoe crabs Limulus polyphemus, while maintaining adequate stopover habitat for migrating red knots Calidris canutus rufa , the focal shorebird species. The predictive model set encompassed the structural uncertainty in the relationships between horseshoe crab spawning, red knot weight gain and red knot vital rates. Stochastic dynamic programming was used to generate a state-dependent strategy for harvest decisions given that uncertainty. In this paper, we employed a management strategy evaluation approach to evaluate the performance of this adaptive management framework. Active adaptive management was used by including model weights as state variables in the optimization and reducing structural uncertainty by model weight updating. We found that the value of information for reducing structural uncertainty is expected to be low, because the uncertainty does not appear to impede effective management. Harvest policy responded to abundance levels of both species regardless of uncertainty in the specific relationship that generated those abundances. Thus, the expected horseshoe crab harvest and red knot abundance were similar when the population generating model was uncertain or known, and harvest policy was robust to structural uncertainty as specified. Synthesis and applications . The combination of management strategy evaluation with state-dependent strategies from stochastic dynamic programming was an informative approach to evaluate adaptive management performance and value of learning. Although natural resource decisions are characterized by uncertainty, not all uncertainty will cause decisions to be altered substantially, as we found in this case. It is important to incorporate uncertainty into the decision framing and evaluate the effect of reducing that uncertainty on achieving the desired outcomes

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

Bridging the gap between mathematical biology and undergraduate education using applicable natural resource modeling

Mathematical biology is a wide field of study with many venues that undergraduate students can access through research. However, the topics of study for these students can be overwhelming, and many topics of study yield either only trivial results or abstract outcomes that are nonintuitive and diffcult to understand. We have used natural resource modeling, and more specifically, a partnership between academic researchers and federal scientists, as a bridge between undergraduate research and mathematical biology. Our collaboration is an interdisciplinary team that combines biology, mathematics, and statistics professors with government research scientists. As a team, we have mentored students through opportunities such as a Research Experiences for Undergraduates and other projects. In this article, we provide an overview of how we develop questions for undergraduates and outline two case studies, both of which resulted in peer reviewed journal articles. Last, we describe how we also transfer the results from these undergraduate projects to resource managers so the results may be applied to real world problems.

Letters in Biomathematics↗

Adaptive management for a turbulent future

The challenges that face humanity today differ from the past because as the scale of human influence has increased, our biggest challenges have become global in nature, and formerly local problems that could be addressed by shifting populations or switching resources, now aggregate (i.e., "scale up") limiting potential management options. Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management based on the philosophy that knowledge is incomplete and much of what we think we know is actually wrong. Adaptive management has explicit structure, including careful elucidation of goals, identification of alternative management objectives and hypotheses of causation, and procedures for the collection of data followed by evaluation and reiteration. It is evident that adaptive management has matured, but it has also reached a crossroads. Practitioners and scientists have developed adaptive management and structured decision making techniques, and mathematicians have developed methods to reduce the uncertainties encountered in resource management, yet there continues to be misapplication of the method and misunderstanding of its purpose. Ironically, the confusion over the term "adaptive management" may stem from the flexibility inherent in the approach, which has resulted in multiple interpretations of "adaptive management" that fall along a continuum of complexity and a priori design. Adaptive management is not a panacea for the navigation of 'wicked problems' as it does not produce easy answers, and is only appropriate in a subset of natural resource management problems where both uncertainty and controllability are high. Nonetheless, the conceptual underpinnings of adaptive management are simple; there will always be inherent uncertainty and unpredictability in the dynamics and behavior of complex social-ecological systems, but management decisions must still be made, and whenever possible, we should incorporate learning into management. ?? 2010 .

Journal of Environmental Management↗

Physiological and nutritional constraints on zooplankton productivity due to eutrophication and climate change predicted using a resource-based modeling approach

Emerging evidence suggests that zooplankton production is affected by physiological and nutritional constraints due to climate change and eutrophication, which in turn could have broad implications for food-web dynamics and fisheries production. In this study, we developed a resource-based zooplankton production dynamics model that causally links freshwater cladoceran and copepod daily production-to-biomass (P/B) ratios with water temperature, phytoplankton biomass and community composition, and zooplankton feeding selectivity. This model was used to evaluate constraints on zooplankton growth under four hypothetical scenarios: involving natural plankton community seasonal succession; lake fertilization to enhance fisheries production; eutrophication; and climatic warming. Our novel modeling approach predicts zooplankton production is strongly dependent on seasonal variation in resource availability and quality, which results in more complex zooplankton dynamics than predicted by simpler temperature dependent models. For mesotrophic and hypereutrophic lakes, our study suggests that the ultimate control over zooplankton P/B ratios shifts from physiological control during colder periods to strong resource control during warmer periods. Our resource-based model provided important insights into the nature of biophysical control of zooplankton under a changing climate that has crucial implications for food web energy transfer and fisheries production.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

Contrasting prescription burning and wildfires in California Sierra Nevada national parks and adjacent national forests

History of prescription burning and wildfires in the three Sierra Nevada National Park Service (NPS) parks and adjacent US Forest Service (USFS) forests is presented. Annual prescription (Rx) burns began in 1968 in Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks, followed by Yosemite National Park and Lassen Volcanic National Park. During the last third of the 20th century, USFS national forests adjacent to these parks did limited Rx burns, accounting for very little area burned. However, in 2004, an aggressive annual burn program was initiated in these national forests and in the last decade, area burned by planned prescription burns, relative to area protected, was approximately comparable between these NPS and USFS lands. In 1968, the NPS prescription burning program was unique because it coupled planned Rx burns with managing many lightning-ignited fires for resource benefit. From 1968 to 2017, these natural fires managed for resource benefit averaged the same total area burned as planned Rx burns in the three national parks; thus, they have had a substantial impact on total area burned by prescription. In contrast, on USFS lands, most lightning-ignited fires have been managed for suppression, but increasing attention is being paid to managing wildfires for resource benefit.

California↗

State geological surveys: Their growing national role in policy

State geological surveys vary in organizational structure, but are political powers in the field of geology by virtue of their intimate knowledge of and involvement in legislative and political processes. Origins of state geological surveys lie in the recognition of society that settlement and prosperity depended on access to a variety of natural resources, resources that are most familiar to geologists. As the surveys adapt to modern societal pressures, making geology serve the public has become the new mission for many state geological surveys. Geologic mapping was the foundation of most early surveys, and the state surveys have brought mapping back into the public realm to meet today's challenges of growing population density, living environment desires, and resource access.

The Compass: Earth Science Journal of Sigma Gamma ↗

Quantifying urban intensity in drainage basins for assessing stream ecological conditions

Three investigations are underway, as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program, to study the relation between varying levels of urban intensity in drainage basins and in-stream water quality, measured by physical, chemical, and biological factors. These studies are being conducted in the vicinities of Boston (Massachusetts), Salt Lake City (Utah), and Birmingham (Alabama), areas where rapid urbanization is occurring. For each study, water quality will be sampled in approximately 30 drainage basins that represent a gradient of urban intensity. This paper focuses on the methods used to characterize and select the basins used in the studies. It presents a methodology for limiting the variability of natural landscape characteristics in the potential study drainage basins and for ranking the magnitude of human influence, or urbanization, based on land cover, infrastructure, and socioeconomic data in potential study basins. Basin characterization efforts associated with the Boston study are described for illustrative purposes.

Alabama, Massachusetts, Utah↗

Climate change collaboration among natural resource management agencies: lessons learned from two US regions

It has been argued that regional collaboration can facilitate adaptation to climate change impacts through integrated planning and management. In an attempt to understand the underlying institutional factors that either support or contest this assumption, this paper explores the institutional factors influencing adaptation to climate change at the regional scale, where multiple public land and natural resource management jurisdictions are involved. Insights from two mid-western US case studies reveal that several challenges to collaboration persist and prevent fully integrative multi-jurisdictional adaptation planning at a regional scale. We propose that some of these challenges, such as lack of adequate time, funding and communication channels, be reframed as opportunities to build interdependence, identify issue-linkages and collaboratively explore the nature and extent of organisational trade-offs with respect to regional climate change adaptation efforts. Such a reframing can better facilitate multi-jurisdictional adaptation planning and management of shared biophysical resources generally while simultaneously enhancing organisational capacity to mitigate negative effects and take advantage of potentially favourable future conditions in an era characterised by rapid climate change.

Colorado↗

Establishing aquatic restoration priorities using a watershed approach

Since the passage of the Clean Water Act in 1972, the United States has made great strides to reduce the threats to its rivers, lakes, and wetlands from pollution. However, despite our obvious successes, nearly half of the nation’s surface water resources remain incapable of supporting basic aquatic values or maintaining water quality adequate for recreational swimming. The Clean Water Act established a significant federal presence in water quality regulation by controlling point and non-point sources of pollution. Point-sources of pollution were the major emphasis of the Act, but Section 208 specifically addressed non-point sources of pollution and designated silviculture and livestock grazing as sources of non-point pollution. Non-point source pollutants include runoff from agriculture, municipalities, timber harvesting, mining, and livestock grazing. Non-point source pollution now accounts for more than half of the United States water quality impairments. To successfully improve water quality, restoration practitioners must start with an understanding of what ecosystem processes are operating in the watershed and how they have been affected by outside variables. A watershed-based analysis template developed in the Pacific Northwest can be a valuable aid in developing that level of understanding. The watershed analysis technique identifies four ecosystem scales useful to identify stream restoration priorities: region, basin, watershed, and site. The watershed analysis technique is based on a set of technically rigorous and defensible procedures designed to provide information on what processes are active at the watershed scale, how those processes are distributed in time and space. They help describe what the current upland and riparian conditions of the watershed are and how these conditions in turn influence aquatic habitat and other beneficial uses. The analysis is organized as a set of six steps that direct an interdisciplinary team of specialists to examine the biotic and abiotic processes influencing aquatic habitat and species abundance. This process helps develop an understanding of the watershed within the context of the larger ecosystem. The understanding gained can then be used to identify and prioritize aquatic restoration activities at the appropriate temporal and spatial scale. The watershed approach prevents relying solely on site-level information, a common problem with historic restoration efforts. When the watershed analysis process was used in the Whitefish Mountains of northwest Montana, natural resource professionals were able to determine the dominant habitat forming processes important for native fishes and use that information to prioritize, plan, and implement the appropriate restoration activities at the watershed scale. Despite considerable investments of time and resources needed to complete an analysis at the watershed scale, the results can prevent the misdiagnosis of aquatic problems and help ensure that the objectives of aquatic restoration will be met.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

Recovery of sediment characteristics in moraine, headwater streams of northern Minnesota after forest harvest

We investigated the recovery of sediment characteristics in four moraine, headwater streams in north-central Minnesota after forest harvest. We examined changes in fine sediment levels from 1997 (preharvest) to 2007 (10 years postharvest) at study plots with upland clear felling and riparian thinning, using canopy cover, proportion of unstable banks, surficial fine substrates, residual pool depth, and streambed depth of refusal as response variables. Basin-scale year effects were significant ( p < 0.001) for all responses when evaluated by repeated-measures ANOVAs. Throughout the study area, unstable banks increased for several years postharvest, coinciding with an increase in windthrow and fine sediment. Increased unstable banks may have been caused by forest harvest equipment, increased windthrow and exposure of rootwads, or increased discharge and bank scour. Fine sediment in the channels did not recover by summer 2007, even though canopy cover and unstable banks had returned to 1997 levels. After several storm events in fall 2007, 10 years after the initial sediment input, fine sediment was flushed from the channels and returned to 1997 levels. Although our study design did not discern the source of the initial sediment inputs (e.g., forest harvest, road crossings, other natural causes), we have shown that moraine, headwater streams can require an extended period (up to 10 years) and enabling event (e.g., high storm flows) to recover from large inputs of fine sediment.

Minnesota↗

Surface-water nutrient conditions and sources in the United States Pacific Northwest

The SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) model was used to perform an assessment of surface-water nutrient conditions and to identify important nutrient sources in watersheds of the Pacific Northwest region of the United States (U.S.) for the year 2002. Our models included variables representing nutrient sources as well as landscape characteristics that affect nutrient delivery to streams. Annual nutrient yields were higher in watersheds on the wetter, west side of the Cascade Range compared to watersheds on the drier, east side. High nutrient enrichment (relative to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's recommended nutrient criteria) was estimated in watersheds throughout the region. Forest land was generally the largest source of total nitrogen stream load and geologic material was generally the largest source of total phosphorus stream load generated within the 12,039 modeled watersheds. These results reflected the prevalence of these two natural sources and the low input from other nutrient sources across the region. However, the combined input from agriculture, point sources, and developed land, rather than natural nutrient sources, was responsible for most of the nutrient load discharged from many of the largest watersheds. Our results provided an understanding of the regional patterns in surface-water nutrient conditions and should be useful to environmental managers in future water-quality planning efforts.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

Exploitation of marine mammals: r-selection of K-strategists?

The importance of marine mammals as predators to the organization of marine communities is poorly known, although in several structurally analogous systems the ecological and evolutionary roles of predators are known to be of considerable importance. Occupation of the marine environment by mammals probably carried physiological constraints for single-young pregnancies thereby limiting all species to low intrinsic rates of population increase. As such, species subjected to high mortality rates from predation or other natural disturbances became extinct; those that survived probably were largely resource limited. In view of this scenario it is suggested that stable populations of marine mammals can be maintained at high levels without being manipulated in most communities. Exploitation probably constitutes a rather dramatic environmental change to marine mammals consequently subjecting them to selective forces fundamentally different from many of those under the influence of which they evolved.

Journal of the Fisheries Research Board of Canada↗

Terrestrial ecosystem modeling with IBIS: Progress and future vision

Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVM) are powerful tools for studying complicated ecosystem processes and global changes. This review article synthesizes the developments and applications of the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS), a DGVM, over the past two decades. IBIS has been used to evaluate carbon, nitrogen, and water cycling in terrestrial ecosystems, vegetation changes, land-atmosphere interactions, land-aquatic system integration, and climate change impacts. Here we summarize model development work since IBIS v2.5, covering hydrology (evapotranspiration, groundwater, lateral routing), vegetation dynamics (plant functional type, land cover change), plant physiology (phenology, photosynthesis, carbon allocation, growth), biogeochemistry (soil carbon and nitrogen processes, greenhouse gas emissions), impacts of natural disturbances (drought, insect damage, fire) and human induced land use changes, and computational improvements. We also summarize IBIS model applications around the world in evaluating ecosystem productivity, carbon and water budgets, water use efficiency, natural disturbance effects, and impacts of climate change and land use change on the carbon cycle. Based on this review, visions of future cross-scale, cross-landscape and cross-system model development and applications are discussed.

Journal of Resources and Ecology↗

USGS assesses deep undiscovered gas resource

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimated in 1995 that 1,412 tcf of technically recoverable natural gas remained to be discovered or developed in U.S. onshore areas. A significant part of that resource base, 114 tcf, is undiscovered gas in deep sedimentary basins assessed by the USGS in onshore areas and state waters. These deep gas accumulations, at or below 15,000 ft, occur in numerous, widely differing geologic settings (Fig. 1 [138,549 bytes]).

Oil & Gas Journal↗