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At least 127 records · Page 7Linked to original sources

Identifying research in support of the management and control of dreissenid mussels in the western United States

On February 9–10, 2022, the Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, U.S. Geological Survey, and Washington State University hosted a workshop to establish research priorities that support the implementation of action items listed in a current invasive species management plan, the Quagga and Zebra Mussel Action Plan (QZAP) 2.0, that are intended to limit the establishment and spread of quagga and zebra mussels in the western United States. The workshop focus was on developing research priorities for the thematic areas that are addressed in QZAP 2.0: 1) early detection monitoring, 2) prevention and containment, 3) control and management, and 4) rapid response. In addition, research priorities were developed for a fifth thematic area that addressed dreissenid mussel biology. Forty scientists participated in the two-day workshop. Prior to the workshop, participants were asked to review and rank research priorities that were established for a previous version of the QZAP and to offer suggestions on emerging research priorities. During the workshop, subject matter experts presented information describing current knowledge of research and information associated with the thematic areas of early detection monitoring, prevention and containment, rapid response, control and management, and biology in the context of strategies and actions listed in QZAP 2.0. The rankings of previous research priorities and suggestions of emerging priorities were then reviewed, and a revised list of research priorities was formed. The list of research priorities is presented by thematic area.

Management of Biological Invasions↗

Critical considerations for communicating environmental DNA science

The economic and methodological efficiencies of environmental DNA (eDNA) based survey approaches provide an unprecedented opportunity to assess and monitor aquatic environments. However, instances of inadequate communication from the scientific community about confidence levels, knowledge gaps, reliability, and appropriate parameters of eDNA-based methods have hindered their uptake in environmental monitoring programs and, in some cases, has created misperceptions or doubts in the management community. To help remedy this situation, scientists convened a session at the Second National Marine eDNA Workshop to discuss strategies for improving communications with managers. These include articulating the readiness of different eDNA applications, highlighting the strengths and limitations of eDNA tools for various applications or use cases, communicating uncertainties associated with specified uses transparently, and avoiding the exaggeration of exploratory and preliminary findings. Several key messages regarding implementation, limitations, and relationship to existing methods were prioritized. To be inclusive of the diverse managers, practitioners, and researchers, we and the other workshop participants propose the development of communication workflow plans, using RACI (Responsible, Accountable, Consulted, Informed) charts to clarify the roles of all pertinent individuals and parties and to minimize the chance for miscommunications. We also propose developing decision support tools such as Structured Decision-Making (SDM) to help balance the benefits of eDNA sampling with the inherent uncertainty, and developing an eDNA readiness scale to articulate the technological readiness of eDNA approaches for specific applications. These strategies will increase clarity and consistency regarding our understanding of the utility of eDNA-based methods, improve transparency, foster a common vision for confidently applying eDNA approaches, and enhance their benefit to the monitoring and assessment community.

Environmental DNA↗

Dry years decrease abundance of American alligators in the Florida Everglades

The Everglades has been greatly reduced and is threatened by land use change and altered hydrology. The Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan calls for monitoring and assessment of key ecosystem attributes, one of which is abundance of American alligators. We examined 10 years of alligator night spotlight counts from Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge along two canals and in the interior marsh to determine trends and how dry years affect alligator abundance. Alligators showed population response to hydrologic conditions. In particular, there were declines in abundance after dry years followed by an apparent recovery in abundance in subsequent years. Increases in abundance were lower in the marsh than L-40 Canal. In addition, there was evidence that intensity of dry events affected population dynamics with greater declines observed in years with drier conditions. Results revealed that overall population of alligators increased from 2004 to 2013, but that increases varied by survey route. These results demonstrate that dry years cause a decline in alligator abundance proportional to the intensity of the dry event, and that it is important to make a distinction between canals and marsh when measuring alligator response to hydrology.

Florida↗

Getting ahead of the crises: Developing an avian malaria disease management plan for Hawaiian forest birds

Avian malaria is an existential threat to a majority of native Hawaiian forest birds. Climate change is facilitating the spread of malaria to historically disease-free areas, and despite the risk of native Hawaiian forest bird extinctions from malaria outbreaks, no comprehensive disease management plans exist for forest bird conservation areas. Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawai‘i, supports a thriving bird community in a historically disease-free area that is now vulnerable to malaria incursion. Drawing on the expertise of land managers and research scientists, we developed an approach that could be used to proactively address the risk of expanding malaria into the Refuge. The plan lays out a multi-level approach that includes options for monitoring and management actions depending on defined threat levels: Vigilant, High Alert, Disease Outbreak, and Crisis levels. Initial Vigilant and High Alert levels monitor bird populations, climate conditions, and mosquito occurrence for signs of possible disease outbreaks, with higher levels shifting toward more direct management responses. While specific actions will change as new tools become available, the proactive approach can help Refuge managers better respond to changing malaria levels in the future and provide a model for managing disease here in Hawai‘i and elsewhere.

Hawaii↗

Tracking and forecasting the Nation’s water quality - Priorities and strategies for 2013-2023

Water-quality issues facing the Nation are growing in number and complexity, and solutions are becoming more challenging and costly. Key factors that affect the quality of our drinking water supplies and ecosystem health include contaminants of human and natural origin in streams and groundwater; excess nutrients and sediment; alteration of natural streamflow; eutrophication of lakes, reservoirs, and coastal estuaries; and changes in surface and groundwater quality associated with changes in climate, land and water use, and management practices. Tracking and forecasting the Nation's water quality in the face of these and other pressing water-quality issues are important goals for 2013-2023, the third decade of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) program. In consultation with stakeholders and the National Research Council, a new strategic Science Plan has been developed that describes a strategy for building upon and enhancing assessment of the Nation's freshwater quality and aquatic ecosystems. The plan continues strategies that have been central to the NAWQA program's long-term success, but it also makes adjustments to the monitoring and modeling approaches NAWQA will use to address critical data and science information needs identified by stakeholders. This fact sheet describes surface-water and groundwater monitoring and modeling activities that will start in fiscal year 2013. It also provides examples of the types of data and information products planned for the next decade, including (1) restored monitoring for reliable and timely status and trend assessments, (2) maps and models that show the distribution of selected contaminants (such as atrazine, nitrate, and arsenic) in streams and aquifers, and (3) Web-based modeling tools that allow managers to evaluate how water quality may change in response to different scenarios of population growth, climate change, or land-use management.

Fact Sheet↗

Incorporating climate change projections into riparian restoration planning and design

Climate change and associated changes in streamflow may alter riparian habitats substantially in coming decades. Riparian restoration provides opportunities to respond proactively to projected climate change effects, increase riparian ecosystem resilience to climate change, and simultaneously address effects of both climate change and other human disturbances. However, climate change may alter which restoration methods are most effective and which restoration goals can be achieved. Incorporating climate change into riparian restoration planning and design is critical to long-term restoration of desired community composition and ecosystem services. In this review, we discuss and provide examples of how climate change might be incorporated into restoration planning at the key stages of assessing the project context, establishing restoration goals and design criteria, evaluating design alternatives, and monitoring restoration outcomes. Restoration planners have access to numerous tools to predict future climate, streamflow, and riparian ecology at restoration sites. Planners can use those predictions to assess which species or ecosystem services will be most vulnerable under future conditions, and which sites will be most suitable for restoration. To accommodate future climate and streamflow change, planners may need to adjust methods for planting, invasive species control, channel and floodplain reconstruction, and water management. Given the considerable uncertainty in future climate and streamflow projections, riparian ecological responses, and effects on restoration outcomes, planners will need to consider multiple potential future scenarios, implement a variety of restoration methods, design projects with flexibility to adjust to future conditions, and plan to respond adaptively to unexpected change.

Ecohydrology↗

Simulating future uncertainty to guide the selection of survey designs for long-term monitoring

A goal of environmental monitoring is to provide sound information on the status and trends of natural resources (Messer et al. 1991, Theobald et al. 2007, Fancy et al. 2009). When monitoring observations are acquired by measuring a subset of the population of interest, probability sampling as part of a well-constructed survey design provides the most reliable and legally defensible approach to achieve this goal (Cochran 1977, Olsen et al. 1999, Schreuder et al. 2004; see Chapters 2, 5, 6, 7). Previous works have described the fundamentals of sample surveys (e.g. Hansen et al. 1953, Kish 1965). Interest in survey designs and monitoring over the past 15 years has led to extensive evaluations and new developments of sample selection methods (Stevens and Olsen 2004), of strategies for allocating sample units in space and time (Urquhart et al. 1993, Overton and Stehman 1996, Urquhart and Kincaid 1999), and of estimation (Lesser and Overton 1994, Overton and Stehman 1995) and variance properties (Larsen et al. 1995, Stevens and Olsen 2003) of survey designs. Carefully planned, “scientific” (Chapter 5) survey designs have become a standard in contemporary monitoring of natural resources. Based on our experience with the long-term monitoring program of the US National Park Service (NPS; Fancy et al. 2009; Chapters 16, 22), operational survey designs tend to be selected using the following procedures. For a monitoring indicator (i.e. variable or response), a minimum detectable trend requirement is specified, based on the minimum level of change that would result in meaningful change (e.g. degradation). A probability of detecting this trend (statistical power) and an acceptable level of uncertainty (Type I error; see Chapter 2) within a specified time frame (e.g. 10 years) are specified to ensure timely detection. Explicit statements of the minimum detectable trend, the time frame for detecting the minimum trend, power, and acceptable probability of Type I error (α) collectively form the quantitative sampling objective.

Book chapter↗

Borehole dilatometer installation, operation, and maintenance at sites in Hawaii

In response to concerns about the potential hazard of Mauna Loa volcano in Hawaii, the USGS began efforts in 1998 to add four high-resolution borehole sites. Located at these sites are; strainmeters, tiltmeters, seismometers, accelerometers and other instrumentation. These instruments are capable of providing continuous monitoring of the magma movement under Mauna Loa. Each site was planned to provide multi-parameter monitoring of volcanic activity. In June of 2000, a contract was let for the core drilling of three of these four sites. They are located at Hokukano (west side of Mauna Loa) above Captain Cook, Hawaii; at Mauna Loa Observatory (11,737 feet near the summit), and at Mauna Loa Strip Road (east side of Mauna Loa). Another site was chosen near Halema'uma u' and Kilauea's summit, in the Keller deep well. (See maps). The locations of these instruments are shown in Figure 1 with their latitude and longitude in Table 1. The purpose of this network is to monitor crustal deformation associated with volcanic intrusions and earthquakes on Mauna Loa and Kilauea volcanoes. This report describes the methods used to locate sites, install dilatometers, other instrumentation, and telemetry. We also provide a detailed description of the electronics used for signal amplification and telemetry, plus techniques used for instrument maintenance. Instrument sites were selected in regions of hard volcanic rock where the expected signals from magmatic activity were calculated to be a maximum and the probability of earthquakes with magnitude 4 or greater is large. At each location, an attempt was made to separate tectonic and volcanic signals from known noise sources for each instrument type.

Hawaii↗

A summary of water-quality and salt marsh monitoring, Humboldt Bay, California

This report summarizes data-collection activities associated with the U.S. Geological Survey Humboldt Bay Water-Quality and Salt Marsh Monitoring Project. This work was undertaken to gain a comprehensive understanding of water-quality conditions, salt marsh accretion processes, marsh-edge erosion, and soil-carbon storage in Humboldt Bay, California. Multiparameter sondes recorded water temperature, specific conductance, and turbidity at a 15-minute timestep at two U.S. Geological Survey water-quality stations: (1) Mad River Slough near Arcata, California (U.S. Geological Survey station 405219124085601) and (2) Hookton Slough near Loleta, California (U.S. Geological Survey station 404038124131801). At each station, discrete water samples were collected to develop surrogate regression models that were used to compute a continuous time series of suspended-sediment concentration from continuously measured turbidity. Data loggers recorded water depth at a 6-minute timestep in the primary tidal channels (Mad River Slough and Hookton Slough) in two adjacent marshes (Mad River marsh and Hookton marsh). The marsh monitoring network included five study marshes. Three marshes (Mad River, Manila, and Jacoby) are in the northern embayment of Humboldt Bay and two marshes (White and Hookton) are in the southern embayment. Surface deposition and elevation change were measured using deep rod surface elevation tables and feldspar marker horizons. Sediment characteristics and soil-carbon storage were measured using a total of 10 shallow cores, distributed across 5 study marshes, collected using an Eijkelkamp peat sampler. Rates of marsh edge erosion (2010–19) were quantified in four marshes (Mad River, Manila, Jacoby, and White) by estimating changes in the areal extent of the vegetated marsh plain using repeat aerial imagery and light detection and ranging (LiDAR)-derived elevation data. During the monitoring period (2016–19), the mean suspended-sediment concentration computed for Hookton Slough (50±20 milligrams per liter [mg/L]) was higher than Mad River Slough (18±7 mg/L). Uncertainty in mean suspended-sediment concentration values is reported using a 90-percent confidence interval. Across the five study marshes, elevation change (+1.8±0.6 millimeters per year [mm/yr]) and surface deposition (+2.5±0.5 mm/yr) were lower than published values of local sea-level rise (4.9±0.8 mm/yr), and mean carbon density was 0.029±0.005 grams of carbon per cubic centimeter. From 2010 to 2019, marsh edge erosion and soil carbon loss were greatest in low-elevation marshes with the marsh edge characterized by a gentle transition from mudflat to vegetated marsh (herein, ramped edge morphology) and larger wind-wave exposure. Jacoby Creek marsh experienced the greatest edge erosion. In total, marsh edge erosion was responsible for 62.3 metric tons of estuarine soil carbon storage loss across four study marshes. Salt marshes are an important component of coastal carbon, which is frequently referred to as “blue carbon.” The monitoring data presented in this report provide fundamental information needed to manage blue carbon stocks, assess marsh vulnerability, inform sea-level rise adaptation planning, and build coastal resiliency to climate change.

California↗

Use of electromagnetic induction methods to monitor remediation at the University of Connecticut landfill: 2004–2011

Time‐lapse geophysical surveys using frequency‐domain electromagnetics (FDEM) can indirectly measure time‐varying hydrologic parameters such as fluid saturation or solute concentration. Monitoring of these processes provides insight into aquifer properties and the effectiveness of constructed controls (such as leachate interceptor trenches), as well as aquifer responses to natural or induced stresses. At the University of Connecticut landfill, noninvasive, electromagnetic induction (EMI) methods were used to monitor changes in subsurface electrical conductivity that were related to the landfill‐closure activities. After the landfill was closed, EMI methods were used to monitor changes in water saturation and water quality. As part of a long‐term monitoring plan to observe changes associated with closure, redevelopment, and remediation of the former landfill, EMI data were collected to supplement information from groundwater samples collected in wells to the south and north of the landfill. In comparison to single‐point measurements that could have been collected by conventional installation of additional monitoring wells, the EMI methods provided increased spatial coverage, and were less invasive and therefore less destructive to the wetland north of the landfill. To monitor effects of closure activities on the subsurface conductivity, EMI measurements were collected from 2004 to 2011 along discrete transects north and south of the landfill prior to, during, and after the landfill closure. In general, the results indicated an overall decline in subsurface electrical conductivity with time and with distance from the former landfill. This decline in electrical conductivity indicated that the closure and remediation efforts reduced the amount of leachate that originated from the landfill and that entered the drainages to the north and south of the landfill.

Conference Paper↗

United States-Chile binational exchange for volcanic risk reduction, 2015—Activities and benefits

In 2015, representatives from the United States and Chile exchanged visits to discuss and share their expertise and experiences dealing with volcano hazards. Communities in both countries are at risk from various volcano hazards. Risks to lives and property posed by these hazards are a function not only of the type and size of future eruptions but also of distances from volcanoes, structural integrity of volcanic edifices, landscape changes imposed by recent past eruptions, exposure of people and resources to harm, and any mitigative measures taken (or not taken) to reduce risk. Thus, effective risk-reduction efforts require the knowledge and consideration of many factors, and firsthand experience with past volcano crises provides a tremendous advantage for this work. However, most scientists monitoring volcanoes and most officials delegated with the responsibility for emergency response and management in volcanic areas have little or no firsthand experience with eruptions or volcano hazards. The reality is that eruptions are infrequent in most regions, and individual volcanoes may have dormant periods lasting hundreds to thousands of years. Knowledge may be lacking about how to best plan for and manage future volcanic crises, and much can be learned from the sharing of insights and experiences among counterpart specialists who have had direct, recent, or different experiences in dealing with restless volcanoes and threatened populations. The sharing of information and best practices can help all volcano scientists and officials to better prepare for future eruptions or noneruptive volcano hazards, such as large volcanic mudflows (lahars), which could affect their communities.

Circular↗

The Long Valley Caldera GIS database

This database provides an overview of the studies being conducted by the Long Valley Observatory in eastern California from 1975 to 2001. The database includes geologic, monitoring, and topographic datasets related to Long Valley caldera. The CD-ROM contains a scan of the original geologic map of the Long Valley region by R. Bailey. Real-time data of the current activity of the caldera (including earthquakes, ground deformation and the release of volcanic gas), information about volcanic hazards and the USGS response plan are available online at the Long Valley observatory web page (http://lvo.wr.usgs.gov). If you have any comments or questions about this database, please contact the Scientist in Charge of the Long Valley observatory.

Data Series↗

Hydraulic, geomorphic, and trout habitat conditions of the Lake Fork of the Gunnison River in Hinsdale County, Lake City, Colorado, Water Years 2010-2011

Channel rehabilitation, or reconfiguration, to mitigate a variety of riverine problems has become a common practice in the western United States. However, additional work to monitor and assess the channel response to, and the effectiveness of, these modifications over longer periods of time (decadal or longer) is still needed. The Lake Fork of the Gunnison River has been an area of active channel modification to accommodate the needs of the Lake City community since the 1950s. The Lake Fork Valley Conservancy District began a planning process to assess restoration options for a reach of the Lake Fork in Lake City to enhance hydraulic and ecologic characteristics of the reach. Geomorphic channel form is affected by land-use changes within the basin and geologic controls within the reach. The historic channel was defined as a dynamic, braided channel with an active flood plain. This can result in a natural tendency for the channel to braid. A braided channel can affect channel stability of reconfigured reaches when a single-thread meandering channel is imposed on the stream. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Colorado Water Conservation Board and Colorado River Water Conservation District, began a study in 2010 to quantify existing hydraulic and habitat conditions for a reach of the Lake Fork of the Gunnison River in Lake City, Colorado. The purpose of this report is to quantify existing Lake Fork hydraulic and habitat conditions and establish a baseline against which post-reconfiguration conditions can be compared. This report (1) quantifies the existing hydraulic and geomorphic conditions in a 1.1-kilometer section of the Lake Fork at Lake City that has been proposed as a location for future channel-rehabilitation efforts, (2) characterizes the habitat suitability of the reach for two trout species based on physical conditions within the stream, and (3) characterizes the current riparian canopy density. The FaSTMECH computational flow-model within MD_SWMS was selected to characterize the effects of streamflow on hydraulic and habitat-suitability conditions for a study reach of the Lake Fork. Habitat suitability was evaluated for cutthroat ( Oncorhynchus clarkii ) and brown trout ( Salmo trutta morpha fario ) fry, juveniles, and adults. Microscale (point locations) and mesoscale (reach features) habitats were assessed using the combination of field observations, measurements, and hydraulic simulations within the study reach of the Lake Fork. Microscale trout habitat, presented as weighted usable area, generally increased as streamflow increased for both trout species and all life stages. Areas of suitable microscale habitat occur along the banks for flows of 900 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s) and less. Out-of-bank areas became more substantial contributors to overall habitat availability for flows of 1,300 ft 3 /s or more when compared to other features. Adult habitat, for both trout species, was the most abundant habitat type for nearly all streamflows. In general, the upper reach provided 2–3 times more available habitat than the lower reach for both trout species. Mesoscale trout habitat of the Lake Fork was assessed based on the conditions present in the 150 ft 3 /s flow simulation as well as field observation. Both the upper and lower reach is primarily characterized as riffle/run habitat. The presence of pool habitat was limited throughout both reaches and occurred along the channel margins. For both reaches, the pool habitat was less than 5 percent of the total wetted area, a percentage that is substantially lower than the recommendations for sustainable populations of 40–70 percent. Areas of cover were adjacent to potential drift feeding areas in the lower reach, and often occurred within the same pool habitat. This may favor energy expenditure ratios of both fish species, wherein little energy is needed to acquire adequate food sources. Sediment mobility is an important process for flushing fine sediments from within the gravel frameworks. Evaluations of channel and flow characteristics at cross-section locations 2–8 show a range of streambed mobility. In general, boundary shear stress and streambed mobility increase with increases in streamflow. Within the cross sections, the greatest boundary shear stress occurs towards the center of the channel. Reach-scale assessment of sediment mobility in the lower reach shows increased streambed mobility. This is due in part to smaller grain sizes in the lower reach, but may also reflect the greater extent of channel alterations, specifically the temporary berms constructed by CDOT in the late 1980s and 1990s, present in this reach.

Colorado↗

Tools for managing hydrologic alteration on a regional scale II: Setting targets to protect stream health

Widespread hydrologic alteration creates a need for tools to assess ecological impacts to streams that can be applied across large geographic scales. A regional framework for biologically based flow management can help catchment managers prioritise streams for protection, evaluate impacts of disturbance or interventions and provide a starting point for causal assessment in degraded streams. However, lack of flow data limit the ability to assess hydrologic conditions across a region. Hydrologic models can address this problem. Regionally calibrated hydrologic models were used to estimate current and reference flows at 572 bioassessment sites in southern and central coastal California. Flow alteration was characterised as the difference in 39 flow metrics calculated from simulations of present‐day and reference flow time‐series, calculated under up to four precipitation conditions. Biological condition was assessed with the California Stream Condition Index (CSCI) and its components. Logistic regressions were used to predict the likelihood of high scores (i.e. ≥10th percentile of the CSCI reference calibration data). Statistically significant relationships between increasing severity of hydrologic alteration and decreasing biological condition were used to set thresholds that reflected tolerance for risk of a stakeholder advisory group. An index of hydrologic alteration was created by selecting flow metrics based on their importance for predicting biological response variables in boosted regression tree models. Metrics were selected in the order of decreasing importance, and no more than two metrics per metric class were selected (i.e. duration, frequency, magnitude, timing and variability). Seven metrics were selected: HighDur (duration of high‐flow events), HighNum (# of high‐flow events), NoDisturb (duration between high‐ or low‐flow events), MaxMonthQ (maximum monthly discharge), Q99 (99th percentile of daily streamflow), QmaxIDR (interdecile range of annual maxima) and RBI (Richards–Baker Index). Applying the index to data from a probabilistic survey, 34% of stream‐miles in southern California were estimated to be hydrologically altered. One of four management priorities were assigned to each site based on biological condition and hydrologic status: protection (healthy and unaltered, 52% of stream‐miles), monitoring (healthy but altered 4%), evaluation of flow management (unhealthy and altered, 30%) and evaluation of other management (unhealthy but unaltered, 14%). Regionally derived biologically based targets for flow alteration allow catchment managers to prioritise activities and conduct screenings for causal assessments across large spatial scales. Furthermore, regional tools pave the way for incorporation of hydrologic management in policies and catchment planning designed to support biological integrity in streams. Development of regional tools should be a priority where hydrologic alteration is pervasive or expected to increase in response to climate change or urbanisation.

Freshwater Biology↗

Water-the Nation's Fundamental Climate Issue A White Paper on the U.S. Geological Survey Role and Capabilities

Of all the potential threats posed by climatic variability and change, those associated with water resources are arguably the most consequential for both society and the environment (Waggoner, 1990). Climatic effects on agriculture, aquatic ecosystems, energy, and industry are strongly influenced by climatic effects on water. Thus, understanding changes in the distribution, quantity and quality of, and demand for water in response to climate variability and change is essential to planning for and adapting to future climatic conditions. A central role of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) with respect to climate is to document environmental changes currently underway and to develop improved capabilities to predict future changes. Indeed, a centerpiece of the USGS role is a new Climate Effects Network of monitoring sites. Measuring the climatic effects on water is an essential component of such a network (along with corresponding effects on terrestrial ecosystems). The USGS needs to be unambiguous in communicating with its customers and stakeholders, and with officials at the Department of the Interior, that although modeling future impacts of climate change is important, there is no more critical role for the USGS in climate change science than that of measuring and describing the changes that are currently underway. One of the best statements of that mission comes from a short paper by Ralph Keeling (2008) that describes the inspiration and the challenges faced by David Keeling in operating the all-important Mauna Loa Observatory over a period of more than four decades. Ralph Keeling stated: 'The only way to figure out what is happening to our planet is to measure it, and this means tracking changes decade after decade and poring over the records.' There are three key ideas that are important to the USGS in the above-mentioned sentence. First, to understand what is happening requires measurement. While models are a tool for learning and testing our understanding, they are not a substitute for observations. The second key idea is that measurement needs to be done over a period of many decades. When viewing hydrologic records over time scales of a few years to a few decades, trends commonly appear. However, when viewed in the context of many decades to centuries, these short-term trends are recognized as being part of much longer term oscillations. Thus, while we might want to initiate monitoring of important aspects of our natural resources, the data that will prove to be most useful in the next few years are those records that already have long-term continuity. USGS streamflow and groundwater level data are excellent examples of such long-term records. These measured data span many decades, follow standard protocols for collection and quality assurance, and are stored in a database that provides access to the full period of record. The third point from the Keeling quote relates to the notion of ?poring over the records.? Important trends will not generally jump off the computer screen at us. Thoughtful analyses are required to get past a number of important but confounding influences in the record, such as the role of seasonal variation, changes in water management, or influences of quasi-periodic phenomena, such as El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). No organization is better situated to pore over the records than the USGS because USGS scientists know the data, quality-assure the data, understand the factors that influence the data, and have the ancillary information on the watersheds within which the data are collected. To fulfill the USGS role in understanding climatic variability and change, we need to continually improve and strengthen two of our key capabilities: (1) preserving continuity of long-term water data collection and (2) analyzing and interpreting water data to determine how the Nation's water resources are changing. Understanding change in water resources

Circular↗

U.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—2015 annual report

This is the eighth annual report highlighting U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) science and decision-support activities conducted for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI). The activities address specific management needs identified by WLCI partner agencies. In 2015, USGS scientists continued 24 WLCI projects in 5 categories: (1) acquiring and analyzing resource-condition data to form a foundation for understanding and monitoring landscape conditions and projecting changes; (2) using new technologies to improve the scope and accuracy of landscape-scale monitoring and assessments, and applying them to monitor indicators of ecosystem conditions and the effectiveness of on-the-ground habitat projects; (3) conducting research to elucidate the mechanisms that drive wildlife and habitat responses to changing land uses; (4) managing and making accessible the large number of databases, maps, and other products being developed; and (5) coordinating efforts among WLCI partners, helping them to use USGS-developed decision-support tools, and integrating WLCI outcomes with future habitat enhancement and research projects. Of the 24 projects, 21 were ongoing, including those that entered new phases or more in-depth lines of inquiry, 2 were new, and 1 was completed. A highlight of 2015 was the WLCI science conference sponsored by the USGS, Bureau of Land Management, and National Park Service in coordination with the Wyoming chapter of The Wildlife Society. Of 260 participants, 41 were USGS professionals representing 13 USGS science centers, field offices, and Cooperative Wildlife Research Units. Major themes of USGS presentations included using new technologies for developing more efficient research protocols for modeling and monitoring natural resources, researching effects of energy development and other land uses on wildlife species and habitats of concern, and modeling species distributions, population trends, habitat use, and effects of land-use changes. There was also a special session on the effectiveness of Wyoming’s Sage-Grouse Executive Order. Combined, USGS presentations provided WLCI partners with a wealth of information and conservation tools. The project completed in 2015 yielded an index of important agricultural lands in the WLCI region. The index improves upon existing measures of agricultural productivity and provides planners and managers with additional values to consider when making decisions about land use and conservation actions. The two new projects include an analysis of satellite imagery to quantify sagebrush productivity and mortality, and an evaluation of how groundwater and small streams interact in the upper Green River Basin. Initiated in response to concern among WLCI partners that large areas of sagebrush appear to have died recently, the sagebrush study objectives are to assess effects of these mortality events on overall sagebrush ecosystem productivity, evaluate the feasibility of using satellite imagery to detect patterns in sagebrush mortality over time, and identify factors driving these mortality events. The groundwater-streamflow interaction study is being conducted by hydrologists and fish ecologists to better understand how groundwater-streamflow interactions are affected by energy-resource development and how native fish communities are affected by these factors. Expected outcomes of both new projects will provide WLCI partners with additional information and decision-support tools. Highlights of ongoing science foundation activities included simulations of nine alternative build-out scenarios for oil and gas development and an associated online fact sheet that explains how the simulations were conducted, with an applied example for the Atlantic Rim. Also completed in 2015 was an update of the USGS online inventory of mineral resources data, and publication of a USGS uranium resource survey for the WLCI region. Combined, the outcomes of this work provide decisionmakers and managers with important baseline information for existing and (or) future planning and monitoring efforts. Terrestrial monitoring activities in 2015 emphasized the use of satellite data in combination with other technologies and field data to monitor, assess, and (or) forecast distribution patterns and (or) trends in sagebrush ecosystems, seasonal and migration stopover habitats used by mule deer and elk, and semi-arid aspen woodlands. Several professional papers detailing new monitoring models and results have been published. Combined, this and related work will help managers understand distribution patterns and trends among priority habitats, identify areas in need of restoration or conservation, and monitor the effectiveness of habitat-management actions. Aquatic monitoring activities entailed not only the new groundwater-streamflow interaction study already mentioned, but also continued monitoring with streamgages paired with nearby wells in the Green River Basin to assess groundwater effects on streamflow and surface water temperatures. A map that portrays groundwater levels and general direction of flow in the Green River Basin was published as well . Overall, outcomes of USGS hydrological research and monitoring will inform WLCI partners about water resources in the WLCI region and help to explain fish-community responses to energy-resource development. In 2015, USGS terrestrial wildlife ecologists continued to make crucial strides towards better understanding wildlife species responses to energy-resource development and other land-use changes. This body of research includes six taxa that require or heavily depend on sagebrush habitats: sage-grouse, pygmy rabbits, 3 songbird species, and mule deer. Native fish communities are also being evaluated. Approaches include modeling and mapping wildlife species distributions, abundances, and trends; using satellite and other technologies to track wildlife seasonal movements; conducting successive phases of research that build on the knowledge gained through prior phases to reveal the specific factors or thresholds that drive population- or individual-level responses to changes; and conducting population viability analyses. Additionally, wildlife habitat association models for pygmy rabbit and sage-grouse were combined with the oil and gas build-out scenarios to project species responses to alternative energy development scenarios. Outcomes of the wildlife response research are helping decisionmakers and managers identify specific factors that contribute to species population trends, the potential for spatial overlap between important wildlife habitats and proposed energy-resource development, locations of priority habitats for restoration and conservation, and more. Data and WLCI Web site management highlights of 2015 included not only ongoing software upgrades, but also an update of the datasets displayed in two of the online products developed for the WLCI effort: (1) a map of 15,532 oil and natural gas well pad scars and other features associated with oil and gas extraction, and (2) a map of oil and gas, oil shale, uranium, and solar energy production, both for southwestern Wyoming. In addition, a map viewer was developed for a previously published map of coal and wind production in relation to sage-grouse distribution and core management areas in southwestern Wyoming. Combined, these maps place valuable decision-support tools in the hands of WLCI partners. The USGS coordination efforts on behalf of the WLCI in 2015 included significant work on planning and executing the WLCI science conference. They also included ongoing efforts to support Local Project Development Teams and the WLCI Coordination Team (CT) with developing conservation priorities and strategies, identifying priority areas for future conservation actions, supporting the evaluation and ranking of conservation projects, and evaluating the ways in which proposed habitat projects relate to WLCI priorities. In 2015, the USGS also assisted the WLCI CT with updating the WLCI Conservation Action Plan.

Wyoming↗

How well do existing surveys track fish community performance measures in the St. Clair-Detroit River System?

The St. Clair-Detroit River System (SCDRS) connects Lake Huron to Lake Erie and provides important habitats for many fishes of economic and ecological importance. Portions of the SCDRS are designated as Great Lakes Areas of Concern and fish production and conservation may be compromised. Efforts to address beneficial use impairments have focused on restoring habitat for native fishes and improving aquatic ecosystem health. Considerable site-specific research and long-term, annual fish surveys have examined responses to habitat improvements. However, there is uncertainty surrounding whether individual studies and surveys can assess (1) population-level benefits of habitat enhancements and (2) whether management objectives are being met. To identify monitoring gaps and inform long-term monitoring program development, we compared outputs from SCDRS fish monitoring surveys (based on discussions with regional agencies) with performance measures specified in management plans (obtained through gray literature searches). Performance measures for harvested species aligned well with outputs of existing surveys. In contrast, at-risk fishes often had objectives and performance measures that reflected knowledge gaps and study needs. Although harvested species were well-monitored relative to specified performance measures, at-risk fishes were less reliably collected by existing surveys, except for lake sturgeon Acipenser fulvescens . Effective evaluation of restoration efforts for at-risk fishes may require additional survey efforts that target species-specific habitat use and life history characteristics.

Michigan↗

Long-term ecosystem and biogeochemical research in Loch Vale watershed, Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado

Loch Vale watershed was instrumented in 1983 with initial support from the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program to ask whether ecosystems of Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP) were affected by acidic atmospheric deposition. Research and monitoring activities were expanded in 1991 by the U.S. Geological Survey Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets program to understand the processes, and their interactions, controlling water, energy, and biogeochemical fluxes. With help from many collaborators we have characterized trends and patterns in atmospheric deposition, climate, and hydrology, including glaciers and other ice features. Instead of acidic deposition, we documented high atmospheric inputs of reactive nitrogen (Nr), and have studied the ecological consequences in soils, surface water, and vegetation. Using paleolimnology, we documented the onset of human-caused change to lake primary producers ca. 1950 in response to increased Nr deposition and warming. Our results provided the basis for the Colorado Nitrogen Deposition Reduction Plan, a state policy that aims to reduce Nr emissions to protect resources in RMNP by 2032. Carbon cycle research revealed mountain wetlands now release more carbon than they store, and respiration and methane flux occurs even during winter through deep snow packs. Trend analyses found export of Nr to be closely tied to atmospheric inputs, but can lag in response to drought. Current research explores consequences of the combination of warming, changes in precipitation dynamics, and atmospheric deposition of Nr and dust on stream and lake CO 2 dynamics, lake biology and trophic state, and soil carbon composition. Dramatic increases in park visitors have prompted studies on the effects of recreational use on water quality. New tools such as remote sensing and high frequency instream water quality sensors are being applied to lake and stream studies. Monitoring, combined with experiments, models, and spatial comparisons is an essential foundation for science-based resource management.

Colorado↗