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USGS2024

Modeling the effects of spatial distribution on dynamics of an invading Melaleuca quinquenervia (Cav.) Blake population

To predict the potential success of an invading non-native species, it is important to understand its dynamics and interactions with native species in the early stages of its invasion. In spatially implicit models, mathematical stability criteria are commonly used to predict whether an invading population grows in number in an early time period. But spatial context is important for real invasions as an invading population may first occur as a small number of individuals scatter spatially. The invasion dynamics are therefore not describable in terms of population level state variables. A better approach is spatially explicit individual-based modeling (IBM). We use an established spatially explicit IBM to predict the invasion of the non-native tree, Melaleuca quinquenervia (Cav.) Blake, to a native community in southern Florida. We show that the initial spatial distribution, both the spatial density of individuals and the area they cover, affects its success in growing numerically and spreading. The formation of a cluster of a sufficient number and density of individuals may be needed for the invader to locally outcompete the native species and become established. Different initial densities, identical in number and density but differing in random positions of individuals, can produce very different trajectories of the invading population through time, even affecting invasion success and failure.

Forests↗

USGS2009

The length of channelized lava flows: Insight from the 1859 eruption of Mauna Loa Volcano, Hawai‘i

The 1859 eruption of Mauna Loa Volcano, Hawai'i, produced paired 'a'ā and pāhoehoe flows of exceptional length (51 km). The 'a'ā flow field is distinguished by a long (> 36 km) and well-defined pāhoehoe-lined channel, indicating that channelized lava remained fluid to great distances from the vent. The 1859 eruption was further unusual in initiating at a radial vent on the volcano's northwest flank, instead of along the well-defined rift zone that has been the source of most historic activity. As such, it presents an opportunity both to examine controls on the emplacement of long lava channels and to assess hazards posed by future flank eruptions of Mauna Loa. Here we combine evidence from historical chronicles with analysis of bulk compositions, glass geothermometry, and microlite textures of samples collected along the 1859 lava flows to constrain eruption and flow emplacement conditions. The bulk compositions of samples from the 'a'ā and pāhoehoe flow fields are bimodally distributed and indicate tapping of two discrete magma bodies during eruption. Samples from the pāhoehoe flow field have bulk compositions similar to those of historically-erupted lavas (< 8 wt.% MgO); lava that fed the 'a'ā channel is more primitive (> 8 wt.% MgO), nearly aphyric, and was erupted at high temperatures (1194–1216 °C). We suggest that the physical properties of proximal channel-fed lava (i.e., high-temperature, low crystallinity, and low bulk viscosity) promoted both rapid flow advance and development of long pāhoehoe-lined channels. Critical for the latter was the large temperature decrease (~ 50 °C) required to reach the point at which plagioclase and pyroxene started to crystallize; the importance of phase constraints are emphasized by our difficulty in replicating patterns of cooling and crystallization recorded by high-temperature field samples using common models of flow emplacement. Placement of the 1859 eruption within the context of historic activity at Mauna Loa suggests that the formation of radial vents and eruptions of high-temperature magma may not only be linked, but may also be a consequence of periods of high magma supply (e.g., 1843–1877). Flank eruptions could therefore warrant special consideration in models and hazard mitigation efforts.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2007

Warming may create substantial water supply shortages in the Colorado River basin

The high demand for water, the recent multiyear drought (1999-2007), and projections of global warming have raised questions about the long-term sustainability of water supply in the southwestern United States. In this study, the potential effects of specific levels of atmospheric warming on water-year streamflow in the Colorado River basin are evaluated using a water-balance model, and the results are analyzed within the context of a multi-century tree-ring reconstruction (1490-1998) of streamflow for the basin. The results indicate that if future warming occurs in the basin and is not accompanied by increased precipitation, then the basin is likely to experience periods of water supply shortages more severe than those inferred from the longterm historical tree-ring reconstruction. Furthermore, the modeling results suggest that future warming would increase the likelihood of failure to meet the water allocation requirements of the Colorado River Compact.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2021

Reinterpreting the Bruun Rule in the context of equilibrium shoreline models

Long-term (>decades) coastal recession due to sea-level rise (SLR) has been estimated using the Bruun Rule for nearly six decades. Equilibrium-based shoreline models have been shown to skillfully predict short-term wave-driven shoreline change on time scales of hours to decades. Both the Bruun Rule and equilibrium shoreline models rely on the equilibrium beach theory, which states that the beach profile shape equilibrates with its local wave and sea-level conditions. Integrating these two models into a unified framework can improve our understanding and predictive skill of future shoreline behavior. However, given that both models account for wave action, but over different time scales, a critical re-examination of the SLR-driven recession process is needed. We present a novel physical interpretation of the beach response to sea-level rise, identifying two main contributing processes: passive flooding and increased wave-driven erosion efficiency. Using this new concept, we analyze the integration of SLR-driven recession into equilibrium shoreline models and, with an idealized test case, show that the physical mechanisms underpinning the Bruun Rule are explicitly described within our integrated model. Finally, we discuss the possible advantages of integrating SLR-driven recession models within equilibrium-based models with dynamic feedbacks and the broader implications for coupling with hybrid shoreline models.

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering↗

USGS2006

Landscape context mediates influence of local food abundance on wetland use by wintering shorebirds in an agricultural valley

While it is widely understood that local abundance of benthic invertebrates can greatly influence the distribution and abundance of wetland birds, no studies have examined if wetland landscape context can mediate this relationship. We studied the influence of wetland food abundance and landscape context on use of agricultural wetlands by wintering dunlin (Calidris alpina) and killdeer (Charadrius vociferus) in the Willamette Valley of Oregon, USA, over two winters (1999a??2000, 2000a??2001) of differing rainfall and subsequent habitat distribution. We monitored bird use (frequency of occurrence and abundance) at a sample of wetlands differing in local food abundance (density and biomass) and landscape context [adjacent shorebird habitat (defined as ha of wet habitat with less than 50% vegetative cover and within a 2-km radius) and nearest neighbor distance]. We evaluated predictive models for bird use using linear regression and the Cp criterion to select the most parsimonious model. During the dry winter (2000a??2001), dunlin exhibited greater use of sites with higher invertebrate density and biomass but also with more adjacent shorebird habitat and closest to a wetland neighbor. However, neither landscape context nor food abundance were important predictors of dunlin use during the wet winter (1999a??2000). Use of sites by killdeer was unrelated to either local food abundance or landscape context measures during both winters. Our findings contribute to a growing recognition of the importance of landscape structure to wetland birds and highlight a number of implications for the spatial planning and enhancement of wetlands using a landscape approach.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2011

Tsunami modelling with adaptively refined finite volume methods

Numerical modelling of transoceanic tsunami propagation, together with the detailed modelling of inundation of small-scale coastal regions, poses a number of algorithmic challenges. The depth-averaged shallow water equations can be used to reduce this to a time-dependent problem in two space dimensions, but even so it is crucial to use adaptive mesh refinement in order to efficiently handle the vast differences in spatial scales. This must be done in a 'wellbalanced' manner that accurately captures very small perturbations to the steady state of the ocean at rest. Inundation can be modelled by allowing cells to dynamically change from dry to wet, but this must also be done carefully near refinement boundaries. We discuss these issues in the context of Riemann-solver-based finite volume methods for tsunami modelling. Several examples are presented using the GeoClaw software, and sample codes are available to accompany the paper. The techniques discussed also apply to a variety of other geophysical flows. ?? 2011 Cambridge University Press.

Acta Numerica↗

USGS2008

Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models

Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low-permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are often large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be areawide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm, the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance-level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional-scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim-shale gas play in the Michigan basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models chosen because they can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) smooth out granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined arbitrarily by extraneous factors. The analysis shows a 15-20% gain in gas volume when these simple models are applied to order drilling prospects strategically rather than to choose drilling locations randomly. Copyright ?? 2008 Society of Petroleum Engineers.

SPE Reservoir Evaluation and Engineering↗

USGS2006

A simulation model of land-use change in the Lake Tahoe Basin of California and Nevada, as used in a decision-support system

The Tahoe Land-Use Change model is a stochastic, spatially explicit simulation of future land-use change—in particular, development and retirement of individual parcels—in the Lake Tahoe Basin of California and Nevada. The Federal, State, and regional management agencies responsible for the basin are revising and integrating their 20-year plans to meet various goals, including maintaining or improving several environmental (e.g., lake clarity, forest health) and socioeconomic (e.g., affordable housing) characteristics. To assist this effort, the model projects the long-term outcomes of land-use-management decisions, including those relating to existing and potential government regulations, development activities, and conservation practices. The model results are probabilistic maps of parcel-specific changes in land use and the resulting changes in the amount and locations of developed parcels and land-use change. To capture the uncertainties and variation in the exact parcels of land selected for development or retirement by individuals acting in the basin, a single model run includes multiple iterations, from which cumulative statistics are taken to describe the results. The purpose of the model is to generate changes in the amounts and types of land use and land cover that form inputs to a basinwide model of pollutant loading to Lake Tahoe, which, in turn, generates inputs to a lake-clarity model. Together, these three models form a chain of tools that link land-use decisions to changes in a critical environmental quality—the clarity of Lake Tahoe—within a decision-support context. Eventually, these three models will become part of a larger, more complete decision-support system.

California, Nevada↗

USGS2021

Causes of delayed outbreak responses and their impacts on epidemic spread

Livestock diseases have devastating consequences economically, socially and politically across the globe. In certain systems, pathogens remain viable after host death, which enables residual transmissions from infected carcasses. Rapid culling and carcass disposal are well-established strategies for stamping out an outbreak and limiting its impact; however, wait-times for these procedures, i.e. response delays, are typically farm-specific and time-varying due to logistical constraints. Failing to incorporate variable response delays in epidemiological models may understate outbreak projections and mislead management decisions. We revisited the 2001 foot-and-mouth epidemic in the United Kingdom and sought to understand how misrepresented response delays can influence model predictions. Survival analysis identified farm size and control demand as key factors that impeded timely culling and disposal activities on individual farms. Using these factors in the context of an existing policy to predict local variation in response times significantly affected predictions at the national scale. Models that assumed fixed, timely responses grossly underestimated epidemic severity and its long-term consequences. As a result, this study demonstrates how general inclusion of response dynamics and recognition of partial controllability of interventions can help inform management priorities during epidemics of livestock diseases.

Journal of the Royal Society Interface↗

USGS2019

Sediment monitoring to support modeling a reservoir sediment flush on a sand-bed river in Northern Nebraska

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), monitored a sediment flush event from Spencer Dam located on the Niobrara River near Spencer, Nebraska, during the fall of 2014. Data collected during the flush was used to validate a one-dimensional sediment transport model developed by the USACE. The USACE surveyed 26 cross sections within the reservoir and as far as 1 kilometer (km) upstream from the reservoir pool to about 10 km downstream from the dam before and after the flushing event to measure erosion and deposition. They also collected surficial sediment samples from sandbars within the reservoir. The USGS assisted USACE in its model validation efforts by collecting sediment data before, during and after the flush using both traditional sampling techniques and a continuous laser-diffraction particle-size analyzer. From the context of longitudinal volumetric change, the model replicated erosion in the upper half of the reservoir within four percent of that observed by survey data and it replicated deposition downstream of the dam within 5 percent. However, the model underpredicted the erosion of the accumulated delta sediments in the reservoir by 43 percent. The timing and magnitude of suspended sediment concentrations produced by the model compared reasonably well to the discrete suspended-sediment sample results. These results indicate cross-sectional survey data and discrete sediment data may be adequate for developing sediment flush models for reservoirs in similar well-sorted sand-bed streams. The USGS installed a continuous particle-size analyzer immediately downstream from the dam. Although the particle-size analyzer was successful in providing a large dataset during the flushing event, based on discrete point samples, it overestimated the amount of fine particles and underrepresented the amount of coarse material. It also required a significant amount of maintenance during the flushing event because of the large sediment load and the rapid bed aggradation. The maintenance issues with the particle-size analyzer along with uncertainty in the correlation to discrete suspended-sediment samples reduced its value for model validation. However, these issues may have been specific to the flushing event at Spencer Dam, which involved a sand-bed dominated stream and a wide channel. It is foreseeable that other sediment flush models developed for different streams with dissimilar sediment gradations may benefit from similar continuous sediment data, but adequate planning and evaluation should be performed.

Nebraska↗

USGS2007

Setting an effective TMDL: Sediment loading and effects of suspended sediment on fish

The Agricultural Drainage and Pesticide Transport model was used to examine the relationship between fish and suspended sediment in the context of a proposed total maximum daily load ( TMDL ) in two agricultural watersheds in Minnesota. During a 50-year simulation, Wells Creek, a third-order cold water stream, had an estimated 1,164 events (i.e., one or more consecutive days of estimated sediment loading ) and the Chippewa River, a fourth-order warm water stream, had 906 events of measurable suspended sediment . Sublethal thresholds were exceeded for 970 events and lethal levels for 194 events for brown trout in Wells Creek, whereas adult nonsalmonidis would have experienced sublethal levels for 923 events and lethal levels for 241 events. Sublethal levels were exceeded for 756 events and lethal thresholds were exceeded for 150 events in the Chippewa River. Nonsalmonids would have experienced 15 events of mortality between 0 and 20 percent in Wells Creek. In the Chippewa River, there were 35 events of mortality between 0 and 20 percent and one event in which mortality could have exceeded 20 percent. The Minnesota Pollution Control Agency has proposed listing stream reaches as being impaired for turbidity at 25 NTU, which is approximately 46 mg suspended sediment /l. We estimated that 46 mg/l would be exceeded approximately 30 days in a year (d/yr) in both systems. A TMDL of 46 mg SS/l may be too high to ensure that stream fishes are not negatively affected by suspended sediment . We recommend that an indicator incorporating the duration of exposure be applied.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2001

Concentrations and annual fluxes for selected water-quality constituents from the USGS National Stream Quality Accounting Network (NASQAN) 1996-2000

This report contains concentrations and annual mass fluxes (loadings) for a broad range of water-quality constituents measured during 1996-2000 as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Stream Quality Accounting Network (NASQAN). During this period, NASQAN operated a network of 40-42 stations in four of the largest river basins of the USA: the Colorado, the Columbia, the Mississippi (including the Missouri and Ohio), and the Rio Grande. The report contains surface-water quality data, streamflow data, field measurements (e.g. water temperature and pH), sediment-chemistry data, and quality-assurance data; interpretive products include annual and average loads, regression parameters for models used to estimate loads, sub-basin yield maps, maps depicting percent detections for censored constituents, and diagrams depicting flow-weighted average concentrations. Where possible, a regression model relating concentration to discharge and season was used for flux estimation. The interpretive context provided by annual loads includes identifying source and sink areas for constituents and estimating the loadings to receiving waters, such as reservoirs or the ocean.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2017

Mineralogical characterization of weathered outcrops as a tool for constraining water chemistry predictions during project planning

Weathered samples from naturally exposed outcrops of troctolite associated with a magmatic Ni-Cu sulphide deposit were characterized by synchrotron-based micro-X-ray fluorescence mapping (µ-XRF) and X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS), as well as by lab-based X-ray diffraction, electron microscopy, Raman spectroscopy and wet chemical methods. Metal mobility in weathered samples was assessed using a sequential leach procedure. Results are interpreted in the context of predictions for future mine water chemistry and used to refine the conceptual model for metal mobility following weathering of waste rock at a potential future mine site.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2022

Lessons learned from wetlands research at the Cottonwood Lake Study Area, Stutsman County, North Dakota, 1967–2021

Depressional wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America have a long history of investigation owing to their importance in maintaining migratory-bird populations, especially waterfowl. One area of particularly intensive study is the Cottonwood Lake study area in Stutsman County, North Dakota. Studies at the Cottonwood Lake study area began in 1967 and continue through the present (2022). During this period of scientific discovery, meteorological conditions at the Cottonwood Lake study area varied greatly and included one of the most severe droughts of the 20th century and one of the wettest periods in the past 500 years. Persistent wet conditions that began in 1993 have contributed to state changes in many of the study area’s larger wetlands to lake-like conditions, whereas the smaller wetlands returned to seasonally ponded conditions during relatively dry years interspersed within the longer-term wet period. Additionally, some nonwetland areas of the study area developed wetland plant, hydrology, and soil characteristics during the 1993-to-present (2022) wet period. The persistently high stages of water in the larger wetlands since 1993 contributed to a buildup of dissolved solids and increases in salinity with time following an initial decrease in salinity caused by the dilution of dissolved solids within a larger volume of water. During 2021, drought conditions similar to the 1988 to 1992 period may develop if conditions persist. However, meteorological changes during the past 30 years have persisted long enough to be considered a change in climate conditions at the study area and, if such wet conditions continue, would represent a change from conditions that occurred in the past two millennia. During the period of study covered in this report (1967–2021), biotic communities responded in a variety of ways to subtle and marked changes in ponded-water depths, permanence, and salinity among the different wetland types in the study area. This report provides background information on the Cottonwood Lake study area and its context within the Prairie Pothole Region, documents techniques used to quantify environmental conditions and biotic communities, describes major trends that have been observed, presents significant findings as “lessons learned,” discusses recent modeling advances, and highlights key messages to managers. The Wetland Continuum concept was used as a framework to place research findings within an ecological context and to highlight the dynamic nature of prairie-pothole wetland ecosystems.

North Dakota↗

USGS2024

Quantifying the relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors in landscape-based models of stream fish distributions

Lotic fish species distributions are frequently predicted using remotely sensed habitat variables that characterize the adjacent landscape and serve as proxies for instream habitat. Recent advancements in statistical methodology, however, allow for leveraging fish assemblage data when predicting distributions. This is important because assemblage composition likely provides better information about instream habitat compared to landscape-derived metrics and therefore may improve predictions. To better understand the value of using multi-species fish data in species distribution modeling, we fit two conditional random fields (CRF) models to quantify the relative importance of fish assemblage co-occurrence, landscape-derived habitat variables, and interactions between these two predictor groups (i.e., effects of co-occurrence could be context-dependent) at over 1200 stream catchments in Pennsylvania, USA. We first compared predictive performance of CRF models against traditionally used single-species logistic regressions (generalized linear models; GLMs) and found that inclusion of fish assemblage data often improved predictive performance. The multi-species CRF models performed significantly better at predicting occurrence for 63% of species with an average percent increase in AUC of 25% compared to GLMs. Furthermore, the CRF identified species co-occurrences as more informative, and thus relatively more important, at predicting occurrence than the other effect types. The CRF also suggested that allowing these biotic effects to be context-dependent was important for predicting occurrence of many species. These findings illustrate the value of fish assemblage data for landscape-scale species distribution modeling and leveraging this information can improve predictions and inferences to help inform the management and conservation of freshwater fishes.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2022

Ready for real time: Performance of Global Navigation Satellite System in 2019 Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest, California, rapid response products

Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSSs) have undergone notable advancement in the last few decades, leading to the availability of a dataset with capabilities well beyond its original intended purpose. The proliferation of high‐rate (1 Hz or greater) GNSS receivers in areas of seismological interest now allows for routine consideration of dynamic earthquake ground motions, with centimeter‐level displacement accuracy via precise point positioning methods. Real‐time (RT) GNSS observations, from stations that are both telemetered and processed to displacement with minimal latency, have lower accuracy compared to post‐processed (PP) GNSS displacements due to imprecise knowledge of atmospheric conditions, satellite clocks, and satellite orbits in RT. Whether the quality of RT high‐rate GNSS is sufficient for use in rapid response products remains to be thoroughly examined. Here, we highlight RT GNSS displacement time series processed during the 2019 M w "> M w Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake in the context of common rapid‐response products, magnitude estimation, and kinematic fault‐slip models. We discuss how these data can be used to supplement RT seismic data for rapid characterization of significant earthquakes. We find that kinematic fault‐slip models using RT GNSS data retain the general spatiotemporal characteristics of those with PP data, with subtle differences in size and amplitude of modeled slip asperities. We demonstrate the effect of these rapid seismic source models using RT GNSS data on the U.S. Geological Survey product ShakeMap—a downstream ground‐motion prediction algorithm informed by the rupture dimensions estimated in the slip model. Discrepancies in the ShakeMap estimate are minor, within ±12% change, with the most severe variation at the fault edges. Our analysis suggests that, when used in conjunction with available seismic data sources, RT GNSS is sufficient and valuable for rapid earthquake characterization.

California↗

USGS2021

Characterization of groundwater recharge and flow in California's San Joaquin Valley from InSAR-observed surface deformation

Surface deformation in California's Central Valley (CV) has long been linked to changes in groundwater storage. Recent advances in remote sensing have enabled the mapping of CV deformation and associated changes in groundwater resources at increasingly higher spatiotemporal resolution. Here, we use interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) from the Sentinel‐1 missions, augmented by continuous Global Positioning System (cGPS) positioning, to characterize the surface deformation of the San Joaquin Valley (SJV, southern two‐thirds of the CV) for consecutive dry (2016) and wet (2017) water years. We separate trends and seasonal oscillations in deformation time series and interpret them in the context of surface and groundwater hydrology. We find that subsidence rates in 2016 (mean −42.0 mm/yr; peak −345 mm/yr) are twice that in 2017 (mean −20.4 mm/yr; peak −177 mm/yr), consistent with increased groundwater pumping in 2016 to offset the loss of surface‐water deliveries. Locations of greatest subsidence migrated outwards from the valley axis in the wetter 2017 water year, possibly reflecting a surplus of surface‐water supplies in the lowest portions of the SJV. Patterns in the amplitude of seasonal deformation and the timing of peak seasonal uplift reveal entry points and potential pathways for groundwater recharge into the SJV and subsequent groundwater flow within the aquifer. This study provides novel insight into the SJV aquifer system that can be used to constrain groundwater flow and subsidence models, which has relevance to groundwater management in the context of California's 2014 Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA).

California↗

USGS2022

Puget Sound Spatially Referenced Regression on Watershed Attributes (SPARROW)

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the Washington State Department of Ecology (Ecology) are collaborating on the development of refined, seasonal load estimates of total nitrogen and total phosphorus within watersheds draining to Washington waters of the Salish Sea for the period 2005-2020. The modeling approach for this work is based on SPARROW (Spatially Referenced Regression on Watershed Attributes), a watershed modeling technique developed by the USGS. SPARROW is typically used to estimate stream loads throughout a stream network. The estimated loads will be used within the context of the Puget Sound Nutrient Source Reduction Project to evaluate the influence of watershed contributions of nutrients throughout the stream network and to marine waters. This quality assurance project plan (QAPP) contains details about the technical approach, observational data, spatial and temporal source data, limitations, and quality assurance procedures that will be employed to develop the SPARROW models so that they can be used to inform additional actions to address excess nutrients.

Washington↗