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USGS2002

Fault structure and kinematics of the Long Valley Caldera region, California, revealed by high-accuracy earthquake hypocenters and focal mechanism stress inversions

We have determined high-resolution hypocenters for 45,000+ earthquakes that occurred between 1980 and 2000 in the Long Valley caldera area using a double-difference earthquake location algorithm and routinely determined arrival times. The locations reveal numerous discrete fault planes in the southern caldera and adjacent Sierra Nevada block (SNB). Intracaldera faults include a series of east/west-striking right-lateral strike-slip faults beneath the caldera's south moat and a series of more northerly striking strike-slip/normal faults beneath the caldera's resurgent dome. Seismicity in the SNB south of the caldera is confined to a crustal block bounded on the west by an east-dipping oblique normal fault and on the east by the Hilton Creek fault. Two NE-striking left-lateral strike-slip faults are responsible for most seismicity within this block. To understand better the stresses driving seismicity, we performed stress inversions using focal mechanisms with 50 or more first motions. This analysis reveals that the least principal stress direction systematically rotates across the studied region, from NE to SW in the caldera's south moat to WNW-ESE in Round Valley, 25 km to the SE. Because WNW-ESE extension is characteristic of the western boundary of the Basin and Range province, caldera area stresses appear to be locally perturbed. This stress perturbation does not seem to result from magma chamber inflation but may be related to the significant (???20 km) left step in the locus of extension along the Sierra Nevada/Basin and Range province boundary. This implies that regional-scale tectonic processes are driving seismic deformation in the Long Valley caldera.

California↗

USGS2000

Molecular epidemiology reveals emergence of a virulent infectious hematopoietic necrosis (IHN) virus strain in wild salmon and its transmission to hatchery fish

Infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) has been known to be a significant salmonid pathogen in the Pacific Northwest of North America for decades. The goal of this study was to characterize the IHNV genetic heterogeneity and viral traffic over time at a study site in the Deschutes River watershed in Oregon, with an emphasis on the epidemiology of IHNV types causing epidemics in wild kokanee Oncorhynchus nerka between 1991 and 1995. The study site included kokanee spawning grounds in the Metolius River and Lake Billy Chinook downstream, in which the IHNV epidemics occurred in 2- and 3-year-old kokanee, and the Round Butte Fish Hatchery at the outflow of the lake. Forty-two IHNV isolates collected from this area between 1975 and 1995 were characterized on a genetic basis by ribonuclease (RNase) protection fingerprint analyses of the virus nucleocapsid, glycoprotein, and nonvirion genes. Analysis of the 16 identified composite haplotypes suggested that both virus evolution and introduction of new IHNV strains contributed to the genetic diversity observed. The results indicated that the 1991–1995 epidemics in kokanee from Lake Billy Chinook were due to a newly introduced IHNV type that was first detected in spawning adult kokanee in 1988 and that this virus type was transmitted from the wild kokanee to hatchery fish downstream in 1991. Twelve IHNV haplotypes were found at Round Butte Fish Hatchery, indicating a series of virus displacement events during the 20-year period examined. This work shows that IHNV traffic can be much more complex than was previously recognized, and the results have implications for fisheries management at the hatchery and throughout the watershed.

Oregon↗

USGS2001

Creation of residual flows in a partially stratified estuary

The creation of residual flows in estuaries is examined using acoustic Doppler current profiler data sets from northern San Francisco Bay. The data sets are analyzed using principal component analysis to examine the temporal variability of the flows which create the residual circulation. It is seen that in this periodically and partially stratified estuary the residual flows are created through a series of pulses with strong variability at the 24‐hour timescale, through the interaction of shear, stratification and mixing. This interaction is captured through the use of a dimensionless number, the horizontal Richardson number ( Ri x ), which is developed to examine the local balance between the stratifying and destratifying forces at the tidal timescale. It is seen that Ri x is a valuable parameter in predicting the onset of the residual‐creating events, with a threshold value of ≈3 on ebb tides. This critical value is argued to be a threshold, above which the stratification and shear flow create a feedback effect, each further intensifying the other. This feedback results in a highly variable exchange flow which creates the estuarine residual in intermittent pulses rather than as a steady flow. Although typically attributed to baroclinic forcing, an argument is made that these pulses of residual‐creating exchange flow could be created by barotropic forcing in the presence of variable stratification which is asymmetric between flood and ebb tides. This result poses a great challenge for turbulence modeling, as the timing and magnitude of stratification and shear must be correctly simulated on the tidal timescale in order to reproduce the effects seen in the data sets presented.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗

USGS2007

Application of GPS and GIS to map channel features in Walnut Creek, Iowa

A 12-km reach of Walnut Creek was mapped at the Neal Smith National Wildlife Refuge in Jasper County, Iowa to identify and prioritize areas of the stream channel in need of further investigation or restoration. Channel features, including streambank conditions, bottom sediment materials and thickness, channel cross-sections, debris dams, tile lines, tributary creeks, and cattle access points, were located to one-meter accuracy with global positioning system (GPS) equipment and described while traversing the stream. The GPS data were exported into a Geographic Information System (GIS) format, and field descriptions were added to create a series of coverages. Channel features were coupled with existing land cover data for analysis. Left and right streambank erosion rates varied from slight in many areas to severe at outside meander bends, debris dams or cattle access points. Erosion estimates from this study suggest that stream banks contribute about 50 percent of the annual suspended sediment load in the channel. Substrate materials varied from bare or thinly mantled pre-Illinoian till to thick silty muck (> 0.3 m) behind some debris dams and cattle access points. Occurrences of sand and gravel areas were generally restricted to cattle access areas and bridge crossings. A total of 81 debris dams were identified in the stream channel, ranging from fallen trees and beaver dams to several large debris dams. Numerous tile lines (52 total) and tributary creeks (45 total) were mapped as contributing flow to the main channel. Cross-sections measured at 34 locations indicated Walnut Creek averages 10.64 m wide and 2.77 m deep, with the width and depth increasing downstream. Channelization and tile discharge in row crop land use areas have contributed to increased bed degradation and channel widening throughout the watershed. The results of this study indicate the effectiveness of a one-time detailed mapping program to characterize stream system variability and identify spatial relationships among many stream characteristics. Stream survey data are being used to model watershed conditions, identify water sampling points and evaluate and select appropriate channel rehabilitation measures.

Iowa↗

USGS2013

EO-1 Hyperion reflectance time series at calibration and validation sites: stability and sensitivity to seasonal dynamics

This study evaluated Earth Observing 1 (EO-1) Hyperion reflectance time series at established calibration sites to assess the instrument stability and suitability for monitoring vegetation functional parameters. Our analysis using three pseudo-invariant calibration sites in North America indicated that the reflectance time series are devoid of apparent spectral trends and their stability consistently is within 2.5-5 percent throughout most of the spectral range spanning the 12+ year data record. Using three vegetated sites instrumented with eddy covariance towers, the Hyperion reflectance time series were evaluated for their ability to determine important variables of ecosystem function. A number of narrowband and derivative vegetation indices (VI) closely described the seasonal profiles in vegetation function and ecosystem carbon exchange (e.g., net and gross ecosystem productivity) in three very different ecosystems, including a hardwood forest and tallgrass prairie in North America, and a Miombo woodland in Africa. Our results demonstrate the potential for scaling the carbon flux tower measurements to local and regional landscape levels. The VIs with stronger relationships to the CO 2 parameters were derived using continuous reflectance spectra and included wavelengths associated with chlorophyll content and/or chlorophyll fluorescence. Since these indices cannot be calculated from broadband multispectral instrument data, the opportunity to exploit these spectrometer-based VIs in the future will depend on the launch of satellites such as EnMAP and HyspIRI. This study highlights the practical utility of space-borne spectrometers for characterization of the spectral stability and uniformity of the calibration sites in support of sensor cross-comparisons, and demonstrates the potential of narrowband VIs to track and spatially extend ecosystem functional status as well as carbon processes measured at flux towers.

Nevada↗

USGS2020

Long-term trends of Lake Michigan benthos with emphasis on the southern basin

Lake Michigan benthic macrofauna have been studied for almost a century, allowing for a unique analysis of long-term changes in community structure. We examined changes in abundances of three major taxonomic groups of benthic macroinvertebrates (Diporeia, Oligochaeta, and Sphaeriidae) in southern Lake Michigan from 1931-2015, and identified the most likely causes for these changes. Abundances of all three groups increased during 1931-1980, with the bulk of these increases occurring in nearshore (≤ 50 m) waters and coincident with increasing loading of phosphorus (P) to the lake. Abundances of all three taxa declined during 1980-2000 again mostly in nearshore waters and coincident with decreased P loading. The quagga mussel (Dreissena rostriformis bugensis) invasion was associated with a further decline in phytoplankton primary production during 2000-2015. Both Diporeia and Sphaeriidae declined in abundance during that time, with Diporeia exhibiting the more pronounced decrease of the two groups. In contrast, Oligochaeta increased in abundance during 2000-2015. The quagga mussel has become, by far, the most abundant benthic macroinvertebrate species in terms of density and biomass. Overall, the primary driver of changes in the abundances of the three major taxa during this 85-year period appeared to be changes in phytoplankton primary production due to changing P loadings and, later in the time series, Dreissena filtering. The dreissenid mussel invasions coincided with a rapid decline of Diporeia abundance, but the mechanism of this negative effect remains unidentified. In contrast, Oligochaeta likely benefitted from the quagga mussel invasion; perhaps via quagga-generated food supplies.

Lake Michigan↗

USGS2007

Evidence that lake trout served as a buffer against sea lamprey predation on burbot in Lake Erie

The population of burbot Lota lota in Lake Erie recovered during 1986–2003, mainly because of the control of sea lamprey Petromyzon marinus , which began in 1986. Burbot populations continued to grow during 1996–1998, when sea lamprey control was substantially reduced. We calculated mortality parameters for burbot in Lake Erie by estimating age at capture for 2,793 burbot caught in annual gill-net surveys of eastern Lake Erie from 1994 to 2003. Based on catch-curve analysis, annual mortality in Lake Erie during 1994–2003 was estimated as 33%. Annual mortality of the 1992 year-class of burbot was estimated as 30%. The mortality of burbot during the years of reduced sea lamprey control was not different from that during the 3 years preceding reduced control and was significantly lower than that during the entire portion of the time series in which full sea lamprey control was conducted. These results suggest that the reduction in sea lamprey control did not lead to increased burbot mortality. The catch per gill-net lift of large burbot (total length > 600 mm), the size preferred by sea lampreys, was lower than that of adult lake trout Salvelinus namaycush (age 5 and older; total length > 700 mm) before lampricide application was reduced. Although adult lake trout populations declined, the abundance of large burbot did not change during the period of reduced lampricide application. These results support a hypothesis that a healthy population of adult lake trout can serve as a buffer species, acting to reduce predation of burbot by sea lampreys when sea lamprey populations increase. Burbot attained sexual maturity at a relatively early age (3 or 4 years) and a total length (approximately 500 mm) that was smaller than the preferred prey size for sea lampreys. These characteristics and the buffering effect of the lake trout population enabled growth of the burbot population during the brief period when lamprey control was reduced.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS2016

Juvenile magma recognition and eruptive dynamics inferred from the analysis of ash time series: The 2015 reawakening of Cotopaxi volcano

Forecasting future activity and performing hazard assessments during the reactivation of volcanoes remain great challenges for the volcanological community. On August 14, 2015 Cotopaxi volcano erupted for the first time in 73 years after approximately four months of precursory activity, which included an increase in seismicity, gas emissions, and minor ground deformation. Here we discuss the use of near real-time petrological monitoring of ash samples as a complementary aid to geophysical monitoring, in order to infer eruption dynamics and evaluate possible future eruptive activity at Cotopaxi. Twenty ash samples were collected between August 14 and November 23, 2015 from a monitoring site on the west flank of the volcano. These samples contain a range of grain types that we classified as: hydrothermal/altered, lithic, juvenile, and free crystals. The relative proportions of theses grains evolved as the eruption progressed, with increasing amounts of juvenile material and a decrease in hydrothermally altered material. In samples from the initial explosion, juvenile grains are glassy, microlite-poor and contain hydrothermal minerals (opal and alunite). The rising magma came in contact with the hydrothermal system under confinement, causing hydro-magmatic explosions that cleared the upper part of the plumbing system. Subsequently, the magmatic column produced a thermal aureole in the conduit and dried out the hydrothermal system, allowing for dry eruptions. Magma ascent rates were low enough to allow for efficient outgassing and microlite growth. Constant supply of magma from below caused quasi-continuous disruption of the uppermost magma volume through a combination of shear-deformation and gas expansion. The combination of increasing crystallinity of juvenile grains, and high measured SO 2 flux indicate decreasing integrated magma ascent rates and clearing of the hydrothermal system along transport pathways in a system open to gas loss. The near real-time monitoring of ash samples combined with traditional geophysical monitoring techniques during the reawakening of Cotopaxi allowed us to gain a much clearer understanding of events than when using traditional geophysical monitoring alone.

Cotopaxi volcano↗

USGS1999

Estimates of bottom roughness length and bottom shear stress in South San Francisco Bay, California

A field investigation of the hydrodynamics and the resuspension and transport of particulate matter in a bottom boundary layer was carried out in South San Francisco Bay (South Bay), California, during March-April 1995. Using broadband acoustic Doppler current profilers, detailed measurements of turbulent mean velocity distribution within 1.5 m above bed have been obtained. A global method of data analysis was used for estimating bottom roughness length z o and bottom shear stress (or friction velocities u * ). Field data have been examined by dividing the time series of velocity profiles into 24-hour periods and independently analyzing the velocity profile time series by flooding and ebbing periods. The global method of solution gives consistent properties of bottom roughness length z o and bottom shear stress values (or friction velocities u * ) in South Bay. Estimated mean values of z o and u * for flooding and ebbing cycles are different. The differences in mean z o and u * are shown to be caused by tidal current flood-ebb inequality, rather than the flooding or ebbing of tidal currents. The bed shear stress correlates well with a reference velocity; the slope of the correlation defines a drag coefficient. Forty-three days of field data in South Bay show two regimes of z o (and drag coefficient) as a function of a reference velocity. When the mean velocity is >25–30 cm s −1 , the ln z o (and thus the drag coefficient) is inversely proportional to the reference velocity. The cause for the reduction of roughness length is hypothesized as sediment erosion due to intensifying tidal currents thereby reducing bed roughness. When the mean velocity is <25–30 cm s −1 , the correlation between z o and the reference velocity is less clear. A plausible explanation of scattered values of z o under this condition may be sediment deposition. Measured sediment data were inadequate to support this hypothesis, but the proposed hypothesis warrants further field investigation.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗

USGS2008

Time-averaged near-bed suspended sediment concentrations under waves and currents: Comparison of measured and model estimates

Profiles of suspended sediment concentration and velocity were measured over a 15-day period at a near-shore site off Santa Cruz, CA in Monterey Bay. The concentration and velocity data were collected with an Acoustic Backscattering System (ABS) and Acoustic Current Profiler (ACP) that were mounted on a bottom tripod. High-resolution bottom scanning sonar was also attached to the tripod to provide images of bed features during the experiment. Hourly time-averaged near-bed concentrations of suspended sediment were calculated from three models and compared with the measurements. Surface waves and currents that were generated by a storm of moderate intensity caused bed stresses that exceeded threshold stress for D 50 =0.02 cm, the median size of the moderately well-sorted bottom sediment, over a period of about 7 days. Estimates of the concentration at 1 cm above the bottom, C a1 , were obtained using the ABS measurements. These observations have been compared with predictions for the concentration at 1 cm above the bottom, C 1 . Nielsen's models for reference concentration C o [Nielsen, P., 1986. Suspended sediment concentrations under waves. Coastal Engineering 10, 32-31; Nielsen, P., 1992. Coastal Bottom Boundary Layers and Sediment Transport, Advanced Series on Ocean Engineering. World Scientific, Hackensack, NJ.] are purely wave-based and do not include effects of bottom currents on bed stress and bedform scales. C 1 calculated from this model compared well with measured C a1 when currents were weak and small oscillatory ripples were observed in the sonar images. However, during the 3-day period of highest bottom stresses modeled C 1 did not compare well to C a1 . The other two models for C 1 , Glenn and Grant [Glenn, S.M., Grant, W.D., 1987. A suspended sediment stratification correction for combined wave and current flows. Journal of Geophysical Research 92(C8), 8244-8264.] and van Rijn and Walstra [Van Rijn, L.C., Walstra, D.J.R., 2004. Description of TRANSPOR2004 and implementation in Delft3D-ONLINE. Interim Report prepared for DG Rijkswaterstaat, Rijksinstituut voor Kust en Zee. Delft Hydraulics Institute, The Netherlands.], accounted for combined wave-current stresses and included different formulations for predicting bedform scales. C 1 calculated from these models compared well with measurements throughout the early and middle period of the storm, but underpredicted measured values during the latter part of the experiment. An alternative method based on dimensional analysis provided a straightforward way to relate C 1 to bed stress and sediment parameters. This new relationship based on dimensional analysis explained about 77% of the variability in C a1 derived from the ABS data.

California↗

USGS2014

Spectroscopic remote sensing of plant stress at leaf and canopy levels using the chlorophyll 680 nm absorption feature with continuum removal

This paper explores the use of spectral feature analysis to detect plant stress in visible/near infrared wavelengths. A time series of close range leaf and canopy reflectance data of two plant species grown in hydrocarbon-contaminated soil was acquired with a portable spectrometer. The ProSpecTIR-VS airborne imaging spectrometer was used to obtain far range hyperspectral remote sensing data over the field experiment. Parameters describing the chlorophyll 680 nm absorption feature (depth, width, and area) were derived using continuum removal applied to the spectra. A new index, the Plant Stress Detection Index (PSDI), was calculated using continuum-removed values near the chlorophyll feature centre (680 nm) and on the green-edge (560 and 575 nm). Chlorophyll feature’s depth, width and area, the PSDI and a narrow-band normalised difference vegetation index were evaluated for their ability to detect stressed plants. The objective was to analyse how the parameters/indices were affected by increasing degrees of plant stress and to examine their utility as plant stress indicators at the remote sensing level (e.g. airborne sensor). For leaf data, PSDI and the chlorophyll feature area revealed the highest percentage (67–70%) of stressed plants. The PSDI also proved to be the best constraint for detecting the stress in hydrocarbon-impacted plants with field canopy spectra and airborne imaging spectroscopy data. This was particularly true using thresholds based on the ASD canopy data and considering the combination of higher percentage of stressed plants detected (across the thresholds) and fewer false-positives.

Paulinia↗

USGS1999

Stratigraphic constraints on the timing and emplacement of the Alika 2 giant Hawaiian submarine landslide

Previous work has found evidence for giant tsunami waves that impacted the coasts of Lanai, Molokai and other southern Hawaiian Islands, tentatively dated at 100 + and 200 + ka by U-series methods on uplifted coral clasts. Seafloor imaging and related work off Hawaii Island has suggested the Alika phase 2 debris avalanche as the source of the ~ 100 ka "giant wave deposits", although its precise age has been elusive. More recently, a basaltic sand bed in ODP site 842 (~ 300 km west of Hawaii) estimated at 100 ?? 20 ka has been suggested to correlate with this or another large Hawaiian landslide. Our approach to the timing and linkage of giant submarine landslides and paleo-tsunami deposits is a detailed stratigraphic survey of pelagic deposits proximal to the landslide feature, beginning with a suite of seven piston, gravity and box cores collected in the vicinity of the Alika 2 slide. We used U-series dating techniques, including excess 230 Th and 210 Pb profiling, high-resolution paleomagnetic stratigraphy, including continuous, U-channel analysis, δ 18 O stratigraphy, visual and X-ray sediment lithology, and the petrology and geochemistry of the included turbidites and ash layers. Minimum ages for the Alika phase 2a slide from detailed investigation of two of the cores are 112 ± 15 ka and 125 ± 24 ka (2σ) based on excess 230 Th dating. A less precise age for the Alika phase 1 and/or South Kona slide is 242 ± 80 ka (2σ), consistent with previous geological estimates. Oxygen isotope analyses of entrained planktonic foraminifera better constrain the Alika phase 2a maximum age at 127 ± 5 ka, which corresponds to the beginning of the stage 5e interglacial period. It is proposed that triggering of these giant landslides may be related to climate change when wetter periods increase the possibility of groundwater intrusion and consequent phreatomagmatic eruptions of shallow magma chambers. Our study indicates the contemporaneity of the Alika giant submarine landslides and distal deposits from enormous turbidity currents as well as coral clasts reported to be tsunami deposits on Lanai and Molokai through direct dating and compositional analysis of the landslide deposits.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

USGS2021

Fatty acid profiles of feeding and fasting bears: Estimating calibration coefficients, the timeframe of diet estimates, and selective mobilization during hibernation

Accurate information on diet composition is central to understanding and conserving carnivore populations. Quantitative fatty acid signature analysis (QFASA) has emerged as a powerful tool for estimating the diets of predators, but ambiguities remain about the timeframe of QFASA estimates and the need to account for species-specific patterns of metabolism. We conducted a series of feeding experiments with four juvenile male brown bears ( Ursus arctos ) to (1) track the timing of changes in adipose tissue composition and QFASA diet estimates in response to a change in diet and (2) quantify the relationship between consumer and diet FA composition (i.e., determine “calibration coefficients”). Bears were fed three compositionally distinct diets for 90–120 days each. Two marine-based diets were intended to approximate the lipid content and composition of the wild diet of polar bears ( U. maritimus ). Bear adipose tissue composition changed quickly in the direction of the diet and showed evidence of stabilization after 60 days. During hibernation, FA profiles were initially stable but diet estimates after 10 weeks were sensitive to calibration coefficients. Calibration coefficients derived from the marine-based diets were broadly similar to each other and to published values from marine-fed mink ( Mustela vison ), which have been used as a model for free-ranging polar bears. For growing bears on a high-fat diet, the temporal window for QFASA estimates was 30–90 days. Although our results reinforce the importance of accurate calibration, the similarities across taxa and diets suggest it may be feasible to develop a generalized QFASA approach for mammalian carnivores.

Journal of Comparative Physiology B: Biochemical, ↗

USGS2010

Analysis of nonvolcanic tremor on the San Andreas Fault near Parkfield, CA using U.S. Geological Survey Parkfield Seismic Array

Reports by Nadeau and Dolenc (2005) that tremor had been detected near Cholame Valley spawned an effort to use UPSAR (U. S. Geological Survey Parkfield Seismic Array) to study characteristics of tremor. UPSAR was modified to record three channels of velocity at 40–50 sps continuously in January 2005 and ran for about 1 month, during which time we recorded numerous episodes of tremor. One tremor, on 21 January at 0728, was recorded with particularly high signal levels as well as another episode 3 days later. Both events were very emergent, had a frequency content between 2 and 8 Hz, and had numerous high-amplitude, short-duration arrivals within the tremor signal. Here using the first episode as an example, we discuss an analysis procedure, which yields azimuth and apparent velocity of the tremor at UPSAR. We then provide locations for both tremor episodes. The emphasis here is how the tremor episode evolves. Twelve stations were operating at the time of recording. Slowness of arrivals was determined using cross correlation of pairs of stations; the same method used in analyzing the main shock data from 28 September 2004. A feature of this analysis is that 20 s of the time series were used at a time to calculate correlation; the longer windows resulted in more consistent estimates of slowness, but lower peak correlations. These values of correlation (peaks of about 0.25), however, are similar to that obtained for the S wave of a microearthquake. Observed peaks in slowness were traced back to source locations assumed to lie on the San Andreas fault. Our inferred locations for the two tremor events cluster near the locations of previously observed tremor, south of the Cholame Valley. Tremor source depths are in the 14–24 km range, which is below the seismogenic brittle zone, but above the Moho. Estimates of error do not preclude locations below the Moho, however. The tremor signal is very emergent but contains packets that are several times larger than the background tremor signal and lasts about 5 s. These impulsive wavelets are similar to low-frequency earthquakes signals seen in Japan but appear to be broader band rather than just higher in low-frequency energy. They may be more appropriately called high-energy tremor (HET). HET signals at UPSAR correlate well with the record of this event from station GHIB of the HRSN borehole array at Parkfield and HETs typically have a higher cross-correlation coefficient than the rest of the tremor event. The amplitudes of a large HET are consistent with a magnitude of 0.1 when compared with a M2.3 event that had about the same epicenter. Polarizations of the tremor episode at UPSAR are mostly just north of east. Both linearity and azimuth evolve over time suggesting a change in tremor source location over time and linearity is typically higher at the HETs.

California↗

USGS2021

Habitat features predict carrying capacity of a recovering marine carnivore

The recovery of large carnivore species from over‐exploitation can have socioecological effects; thus, reliable estimates of potential abundance and distribution represent a valuable tool for developing management objectives and recovery criteria. For sea otters ( Enhydra lutris ), as with many apex predators, equilibrium abundance is not constant across space but rather varies as a function of local habitat quality and resource dynamics, thereby complicating the extrapolation of carrying capacity ( K ) from one location to another. To overcome this challenge, we developed a state‐space model of density‐dependent population dynamics in southern sea otters ( E. l. nereis ), in which K is estimated as a continuously varying function of a suite of physical, biotic, and oceanographic variables, all described at fine spatial scales. We used a theta‐logistic process model that included environmental stochasticity and allowed for density‐independent mortality associated with shark bites. We used Bayesian methods to fit the model to time series of survey data, augmented by auxiliary data on cause of death in stranded otters. Our model results showed that the expected density at K for a given area can be predicted based on local bathymetry (depth and distance from shore), benthic substrate composition (rocky vs. soft sediments), presence of kelp canopy, net primary productivity, and whether or not the area is inside an estuary. In addition to density‐dependent reductions in growth, increased levels of shark‐bite mortality over the last decade have also acted to limit population expansion. We used the functional relationships between habitat variables and equilibrium density to project estimated values of K for the entire historical range of southern sea otters in California, USA, accounting for spatial variation in habitat quality. Our results suggest that California could eventually support 17,226 otters (95% CrI = 9,739–30,087). We also used the fitted model to compute candidate values of optimal sustainable population abundance (OSP) for all of California and for regions within California. We employed a simulation‐based approach to determine the abundance associated with the maximum net productivity level (MNPL) and propose that the upper quartile of the distribution of MNPL estimates (accounting for parameter uncertainty) represents an appropriate threshold value for OSP. Based on this analysis, we suggest a candidate value for OSP (for all of California) of 10,236, which represents 59.4% of projected K .

California↗

USGS2016

Dynamic reusable workflows for ocean science

Digital catalogs of ocean data have been available for decades, but advances in standardized services and software for catalog search and data access make it now possible to create catalog-driven workflows that automate — end-to-end — data search, analysis and visualization of data from multiple distributed sources. Further, these workflows may be shared, reused and adapted with ease. Here we describe a workflow developed within the US Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) which automates the skill-assessment of water temperature forecasts from multiple ocean forecast models, allowing improved forecast products to be delivered for an open water swim event. A series of Jupyter Notebooks are used to capture and document the end-to-end workflow using a collection of Python tools that facilitate working with standardized catalog and data services. The workflow first searches a catalog of metadata using the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) Catalog Service for the Web (CSW), then accesses data service endpoints found in the metadata records using the OGC Sensor Observation Service (SOS) for in situ sensor data and OPeNDAP services for remotely-sensed and model data. Skill metrics are computed and time series comparisons of forecast model and observed data are displayed interactively, leveraging the capabilities of modern web browsers. The resulting workflow not only solves a challenging specific problem, but highlights the benefits of dynamic, reusable workflows in general. These workflows adapt as new data enters the data system, facilitate reproducible science, provide templates from which new scientific workflows can be developed, and encourage data providers to use standardized services. As applied to the ocean swim event, the workflow exposed problems with two of the ocean forecast products which led to improved regional forecasts once errors were corrected. While the example is specific, the approach is general, and we hope to see increased use of dynamic notebooks across the geoscience domains.

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering↗

USGS2013

An individual-based model for population viability analysis of humpback chub in Grand Canyon

We developed an individual-based population viability analysis model (females only) for evaluating risk to populations from catastrophic events or conservation and research actions. This model tracks attributes (size, weight, viability, etc.) for individual fish through time and then compiles this information to assess the extinction risk of the population across large numbers of simulation trials. Using a case history for the Little Colorado River population of Humpback Chub Gila cypha in Grand Canyon, Arizona, we assessed extinction risk and resiliency to a catastrophic event for this population and then assessed a series of conservation actions related to removing specific numbers of Humpback Chub at different sizes for conservation purposes, such as translocating individuals to establish other spawning populations or hatchery refuge development. Our results suggested that the Little Colorado River population is generally resilient to a single catastrophic event and also to removals of larvae and juveniles for conservation purposes, including translocations to establish new populations. Our results also suggested that translocation success is dependent on similar survival rates in receiving and donor streams and low emigration rates from recipient streams. In addition, translocating either large numbers of larvae or small numbers of large juveniles has generally an equal likelihood of successful population establishment at similar extinction risk levels to the Little Colorado River donor population. Our model created a transparent platform to consider extinction risk to populations from catastrophe or conservation actions and should prove useful to managers assessing these risks for endangered species such as Humpback Chub.

Arizona↗

USGS1995

Finite-fault analysis of the 1979 March 14 Petatlan, Mexico, earthquake using teleseismic P waveforms

Vertical, teleseismic P waves recorded for the 1979 March 14 Petatlan, Mexico, earthquake were used to derive the distribution of coseismic slip using a linear finite-fault inversion scheme that solves for the amount of slip in each of a series of consecutive time windows. Data recorded by six stations of the Global Digital Seismograph Network were inverted in addition to digitized analogue long-period recordings available from nine Worldwide Standardized Seismograph Network stations. The digital data include four broad-band and short-period velocity waveforms reconstructed from the short- and long-period components. The time-window approach allows for a variable rise time on the fault and accounts for the source multiplicity evident in the recorded P waveforms. Synthetic tests conducted using the inversion method on the limited data set, however, reveal that the data are insufficient to identify the exact dislocation duration on the fault. The method is thus implemented by prescribing the fault rise time using five consecutive 1 s time windows. The coseismic slip inferred from the P waves shows a small 70 cm peak near the earthquake hypocentre and a large zone of dislocation (1.2 m maximum) further south-east. The slip pattern covers depths from 3 to 25 km and is located south-east of other recent large interplate ruptures on the Michoacan segment of the Mexican subduction zone. This result indicates that the 1979 Petatlan earthquake broke an independent, adjacent portion of the Cocos-North America plate boundary. The seismic moment of 1.5 × 10 27 dyn cm inferred from the P waves is approximately one-half the long-period moment estimated by other investigators from the observed surface waves. Although the discrepancy is within the uncertainty of the seismic-moment estimates, it may suggest the presence of a component of slow interplate motion that did not radiate significant P -wave energy.

Geophysical Journal International↗