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USGS2013

Foreshocks during the nucleation of stick-slip instability

We report on laboratory experiments which investigate interactions between aseismic slip, stress changes, and seismicity on a critically stressed fault during the nucleation of stick-slip instability. We monitor quasi-static and dynamic changes in local shear stress and fault slip with arrays of gages deployed along a simulated strike-slip fault (2 m long and 0.4 m deep) in a saw cut sample of Sierra White granite. With 14 piezoelectric sensors, we simultaneously monitor seismic signals produced during the nucleation phase and subsequent dynamic rupture. We observe localized aseismic fault slip in an approximately meter-sized zone in the center of the fault, while the ends of the fault remain locked. Clusters of high-frequency foreshocks (M w ~ −6.5 to −5.0) can occur in this slowly slipping zone 5–50 ms prior to the initiation of dynamic rupture; their occurrence appears to be dependent on the rate at which local shear stress is applied to the fault. The meter-sized nucleation zone is generally consistent with theoretical estimates, but source radii of the foreshocks (2 to 70 mm) are 1 to 2 orders of magnitude smaller than the theoretical minimum length scale over which earthquake nucleation can occur. We propose that frictional stability and the transition between seismic and aseismic slip are modulated by local stressing rate and that fault sections, which would typically slip aseismically, may radiate seismic waves if they are rapidly stressed. Fault behavior of this type may provide physical insight into the mechanics of foreshocks, tremor, repeating earthquake sequences, and a minimum earthquake source dimension.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2009

Tracking magma volume recovery at Okmok Volcano using GPS and an unscented kalman filter

Changes beneath a volcano can be observed through position changes in a GPS network, but distinguishing the source of site motion is not always straightforward. The records of continuous GPS sites provide a favorable data set for tracking magma migration. Dense campaign observations usually provide a better spatial picture of the overall deformation field, at the expense of an episodic temporal record. Combining these observations provides the best of both worlds. A Kalman filter provides a means for integrating discrete and continuous measurements and for interpreting subtle signals. The unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is a nonlinear method for time‐dependent observations. We demonstrate the application of this technique to deformation data by applying it to GPS data collected at Okmok volcano. Seven years of GPS observations at Okmok are analyzed using a Mogi source model and the UKF. The deformation source at Okmok is relatively stable at 2.5 km depth below sea level, located beneath the center of the caldera, which means the surface deformation is caused by changes in the strength of the source. During the 7 years of GPS observations more than 0.5 m of uplift has occurred, a majority of that during the time period January 2003 to July 2004. The total volume recovery at Okmok since the last eruption in 1997 is ∼60–80%. The UKF allows us to solve simultaneously for the time‐dependence of the source strength and for the location without a priori information about the source. 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Alaska↗

USGS2016

Origin of the pulse-like signature of shallow long-period volcano seismicity

Short-duration, pulse-like long-period (LP) events are a characteristic type of seismicity accompanying eruptive activity at Mount Etna in Italy in 2004 and 2008 and at Turrialba Volcano in Costa Rica and Ubinas Volcano in Peru in 2009. We use the discrete wave number method to compute the free surface response in the near field of a rectangular tensile crack embedded in a homogeneous elastic half space and to gain insights into the origin of the LP pulses. Two source models are considered, including (1) a vertical fluid-driven crack and (2) a unilateral tensile rupture growing at a fixed sub-Rayleigh velocity with constant opening on a vertical crack. We apply cross correlation to the synthetics and data to demonstrate that a fluid-driven crack provides a natural explanation for these data with realistic source sizes and fluid properties. Our modeling points to shallow sources (<1 km depth), whose signatures are representative of the Rayleigh pulse sampled at epicentral distances >∼1 km. While a slow-rupture failure provides another potential model for these events, the synthetics and resulting fits to the data are not optimal in this model compared to a fluid-driven source. We infer that pulse-like LP signatures are parts of the continuum of responses produced by shallow fluid-driven sources in volcanoes.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2012

Dynamic rupture modeling with laboratory-derived constitutive relations

A laboratory-derived state variable friction constitutive relation is used in the numerical simulation of the dynamic growth of an in-plane or mode II shear crack. According to this formulation, originally presented by J. H. Dieterich, frictional resistance varies with the logarithm of the slip rate and with the logarithm of the frictional state variable as identified by A. L. Ruina. Under conditions of steady sliding, the state variable is proportional to (slip rate) −1 . Following suddenly introduced increases in slip rate, the rate and state dependencies combine to produce behavior which resembles slip weakening. When rupture nucleation is artificially forced at fixed rupture velocity, rupture models calculated with the state variable friction in a uniformly distributed initial stress field closely resemble earlier rupture models calculated with a slip weakening fault constitutive relation. Additional rupture models are calculated in which rupture nucleation is achieved naturally, with numerical simulations of the quasi-static response of the fault leading to the onset of unstable, dynamic rupture. When rupture nucleation with the state variable friction law takes place naturally, a large fraction of the fault accelerates before accelerating slip is concentrated in what ultimately becomes the rupture nucleation patch. The state evolution accompanying this accelerating slip leads to higher average rupture speeds or a more rapid rupture acceleration to near P wave rupture speeds. Rupture models are also calculated for the seismological asperity problem, that is, the failure of a highly stressed fault patch surrounded by a region of zero stress drop. Dynamic overshoot of slip into the region of zero stress drop roughly agrees with a simple energy balance analysis; the final size of the rupture is proportional to the square of the size of the high stress patch. Earlier frictional stability analyses have led to the definition of a critical fault patch size for rupture nucleation. This critical patch size is generally different from critical crack lengths determined from crack tip energy balance considerations applied to a simpler slip weakening law. In the model calculations, dynamic rupture does not nucleate if the starting patch size is less than the critical patch size. This is consistent with the frictional stability analyses. Thus these model calculations suggest that dynamic rupture following a state variable friction relation is similar to that following a simpler fault slip weakening law. However, when modeling the full cycle of fault motions, rate-dependent frictional responses included in the state variable formulation are important at low slip rates associated with rupture nucleation. The critical rupture nucleation dimension appropriate for a slip weakening fault does not predict the critical nucleation dimension for a state variable fault.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

USGS2012

Tectonic stresses in the lithosphere: constraints provided by the experimental deformation of rocks.

The strengths of rocks clearly place an upper limit on the stress that can be sustained by the upper half of the lithosphere. Laboratory data on rock rheology are generally lacking at intermediate temperatures and pressures on the important rock types expected in the lithosphere, so a definitive accounting of the strength distribution with depth in the upper lithosphere is presently unattainable. Analogies are drawn between the fragmentary strength data on silicates at intermediate temperature and the more extensive experimental data on marble and limestone, and several tentative conclusions are drawn: First, brittle processes, such as faulting and cataclasis, are expected to control rock strength at low pressures and temperatures. The strengths associated with these brittle mechanisms increase rapidly with increasing effective pressure and are relatively insensitive to temperature and strain rate. Second, the transitions between brittle and ductile processes occur at critical values of the least principal stress σ 3 . I suggest that the concept of the deformation mechanism map of Ashby (1972) be extended to brittle-ductile transitions by normalizing the applied differential stress σ by σ 3 , i.e., the transitions occur at critical values of σ/σ 3 . Third, the high temperature flow law of olivine, widely applied to problems involving flow in the asthenosphere, is inappropriate to the conditions of temperature found in the lithosphere, because different dislocation flow mechanisms dominate at low to intermediate temperatures. The fragmentary rheological data suggest the following rheological structure of the lithosphere where it is inelastically deforming: A rapid pressure-driven increase in rock strength with depth culminates with a shear strength maximum of up to 8 kbar at depths that depend on the state of stress and on the temperature distribution. A review of the mechanisms of weakening associated with water suggests that water weakening effects are probably not important in the oceanic lithosphere but are likely to be controlling in the continental crust.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

USGS2021

An eddy-resolving numerical model to study turbulent flow, sediment and bed evolution using detached eddy simulation in a lateral separation zone at the field-scale

Turbulence-resolving simulations elucidate key elements of fluid dynamics and sediment transport in fluvial environments. This research presents a feasible strategy for applying state-of-the-art computational fluid mechanics to the study of sediment transport and morphodynamic processes in lateral separation zones, which are common features in canyon rivers where massive lateral flow separation causes large-scale turbulence that controls sediment erosion and deposition. An eddy-resolving model was developed and tested at the field-scale, coupling a viscous flow and sediment transport solver using Detached Eddy Simulation techniques. A morphodynamic model was applied to the viscous flow/sediment solver to calculate erosion and deposition. A simulation of turbulence was performed at the grid resolution for a straight channel to determine the relative contributions of modeled and resolved diffusivity. The time-dependent, energetically important, correlative, non-stationary signals of the simulated quantities were captured at the lateral separation zone. Strong periodic signals featured by high amplitude were found at the separation zone, while low frequency pulsations were observed at the reattachment zone of the lateral separation zone. Interactions between the eddies and the loose bed boundaries resulted in erosion of sediment at the main channel followed by deposition at the primary eddy and eddy bars. tions elucidate key elements of fluid dynamics and sediment transport in fluvial environments. This research presents a feasible strategy for applying state-of-the-art computational fluid mechanics to the study of sediment transport and morphodynamic processes in lateral separation zones, which are common features in canyon rivers where massive lateral flow separation causes large-scale turbulence that controls sediment erosion and deposition. An eddy-resolving model was developed and tested at the field scale, coupling viscous flow and sediment transport solver using Detached Eddy Simulation (DES) techniques. A morphodynamic model was applied to the viscous flow/sediment solver to calculate erosion and deposition. A simulation of turbulence was performed at the grid resolution for a straight channel to determine the relative contributions of modeled and resolved diffusivity. The time-dependent, energetically important, correlative non-stationary signals of the simulated quantities were captured at the lateral separation zone. Strong periodic signals featured by high amplitude were found at the separation zone, while low frequency pulsations were observed at the reattachment zone of the lateral separation zone. Interactions between the eddies and the loose bed boundaries resulted in massive erosion of sediment at the main channel followed by deposition at the primary eddy and eddy bars.

Arizona↗

USGS2000

Chamber measurement of surface-atmosphere trace gas exchange: Numerical evaluation of dependence on soil interfacial layer, and source/sink products

We employed a three-dimensional finite difference gas diffusion model to simulate the performance of chambers used to measure surface-atmosphere tace gas exchange. We found that systematic errors often result from conventional chamber design and deployment protocols, as well as key assumptions behind the estimation of trace gas exchange rates from observed concentration data. Specifically, our simulationshowed that (1) when a chamber significantly alters atmospheric mixing processes operating near the soil surface, it also nearly instantaneously enhances or suppresses the postdeployment gas exchange rate, (2) any change resulting in greater soil gas diffusivity, or greater partitioning of the diffusing gas to solid or liquid soil fractions, increases the potential for chamber-induced measurement error, and (3) all such errors are independent of the magnitude, kinetics, and/or distribution of trace gas sources, but greater for trace gas sinks with the same initial absolute flux. Finally, and most importantly, we found that our results apply to steady state as well as non-steady-state chambers, because the slow rate of gas diffusion in soil inhibits recovery of the former from their initial non-steady-state condition. Over a range of representative conditions, the error in steady state chamber estimates of the trace gas flux varied from -30 to +32%, while estimates computed by linear regression from non-steadystate chamber concentrations were 2 to 31% too small. Although such errors are relatively small in comparison to the temporal and spatial variability characteristic of trace gas exchange, they bias the summary statistics for each experiment as well as larger scale trace gas flux estimates based on them.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

USGS2015

Probabilistic 3-D time-lapse inversion of magnetotelluric data: Application to an enhanced geothermal system

Surface-based monitoring of mass transfer caused by injections and extractions in deep boreholes is crucial to maximize oil, gas and geothermal production. Inductive electromagnetic methods, such as magnetotellurics, are appealing for these applications due to their large penetration depths and sensitivity to changes in fluid conductivity and fracture connectivity. In this work, we propose a 3-D Markov chain Monte Carlo inversion of time-lapse magnetotelluric data to image mass transfer following a saline fluid injection. The inversion estimates the posterior probability density function of the resulting plume, and thereby quantifies model uncertainty. To decrease computation times, we base the parametrization on a reduced Legendre moment decomposition of the plume. A synthetic test shows that our methodology is effective when the electrical resistivity structure prior to the injection is well known. The centre of mass and spread of the plume are well retrieved.We then apply our inversion strategy to an injection experiment in an enhanced geothermal system at Paralana, South Australia, and compare it to a 3-D deterministic time-lapse inversion. The latter retrieves resistivity changes that are more shallow than the actual injection interval, whereas the probabilistic inversion retrieves plumes that are located at the correct depths and oriented in a preferential north-south direction. To explain the time-lapse data, the inversion requires unrealistically large resistivity changes with respect to the base model. We suggest that this is partly explained by unaccounted subsurface heterogeneities in the base model from which time-lapse changes are inferred.

Geophysical Journal International↗

USGS2012

On the state of lithospheric stress in the absence of applied tectonic forces

Numerous published analyses of the nontectonic state of stress are based on Hooke's law and the boundary condition of zero horizontal deformation. This approach has been used to determine the gravitational stress state as well as the effects of processes such as erosion and temperature changes on the state of lithospheric stress. The major disadvantage of these analyses involves the assumption of lateral constraint which seems unrealistic in view of the observational fact that the crust can deform horizontally in response to applied loads. If the same problems are addressed by assuming that the remote stress state is constant, instead of the condition of zero horizontal deformation, then the resulting stress states are entirely different and in good accord with observations. In the absence of applied tectonic forces the only likely gravitational stress states are those for which all three principal stresses are nearly equal. To the contrary, the gravitational stress states developed on the basis of the lateral constraint assumption can be ruled out. The processes of erosion and sedimentation have slight tendencies to increase and decrease, respectively, the state of deviatoric stress. In particular, for initial stress states in the range of slightly extensional to compressional, erosion has the effect of enhancing the ratio of average horizontal to vertical stress, which may explain, at least in part, the common observation of high near-surface horizontal stresses. Temperature changes have only minor effects on the stress state, as averaged over the thickness of the lithosphere.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

USGS2008

Probabilistic seismic hazard in the San Francisco Bay area based on a simplified viscoelastic cycle model of fault interactions

We construct a viscoelastic cycle model of plate boundary deformation that includes the effect of time-dependent interseismic strain accumulation, coseismic strain release, and viscoelastic relaxation of the substrate beneath the seismogenic crust. For a given fault system, time-averaged stress changes at any point (not on a fault) are constrained to zero; that is, kinematic consistency is enforced for the fault system. The dates of last rupture, mean recurrence times, and the slip distributions of the (assumed) repeating ruptures are key inputs into the viscoelastic cycle model. This simple formulation allows construction of stress evolution at all points in the plate boundary zone for purposes of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Stress evolution is combined with a Coulomb failure stress threshold at representative points on the fault segments to estimate the times of their respective future ruptures. In our PSHA we consider uncertainties in a four-dimensional parameter space: the rupture peridocities, slip distributions, time of last earthquake (for prehistoric ruptures) and Coulomb failure stress thresholds. We apply this methodology to the San Francisco Bay region using a recently determined fault chronology of area faults. Assuming single-segment rupture scenarios, we find that fature rupture probabilities of area faults in the coming decades are the highest for the southern Hayward, Rodgers Creek, and northern Calaveras faults. This conclusion is qualitatively similar to that of Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, but the probabilities derived here are significantly higher. Given that fault rupture probabilities are highly model-dependent, no single model should be used to assess to time-dependent rupture probabilities. We suggest that several models, including the present one, be used in a comprehensive PSHA methodology, as was done by Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2011

Understanding the amplitudes of noise correlation measurements

Cross correlation of ambient seismic noise is known to result in time series from which station-station travel-time measurements can be made. Part of the reason that these cross-correlation travel-time measurements are reliable is that there exists a theoretical framework that quantifies how these travel times depend on the features of the ambient noise. However, corresponding theoretical results do not currently exist to describe how the amplitudes of the cross correlation depend on such features. For example, currently it is not possible to take a given distribution of noise sources and calculate the cross correlation amplitudes one would expect from such a distribution. Here, we provide a ray-theoretical framework for calculating cross correlations. This framework differs from previous work in that it explicitly accounts for attenuation as well as the spatial distribution of sources and therefore can address the issue of quantifying amplitudes in noise correlation measurements. After introducing the general framework, we apply it to two specific problems. First, we show that we can quantify the amplitudes of coherency measurements, and find that the decay of coherency with station-station spacing depends crucially on the distribution of noise sources. We suggest that researchers interested in performing attenuation measurements from noise coherency should first determine how the dominant sources of noise are distributed. Second, we show that we can quantify the signal-to-noise ratio of noise correlations more precisely than previous work, and that these signal-to-noise ratios can be estimated for given situations prior to the deployment of seismometers. It is expected that there are applications of the theoretical framework beyond the two specific cases considered, but these applications await future work.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗

USGS2001

Evolution of the conceptual model of unsaturated zone hydrology at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Yucca Mountain is an arid site proposed for consideration as the United States’ first underground high-level radioactive waste repository. Low rainfall (approximately 170 mm/yr) and a thick unsaturated zone (500–1000 m) are important physical attributes of the site because the quantity of water likely to reach the waste and the paths and rates of movement of the water to the saturated zone under future climates would be major factors in controlling the concentrations and times of arrival of radionuclides at the surrounding accessible environment. The framework for understanding the hydrologic processes that occur at this site and that control how quickly water will penetrate through the unsaturated zone to the water table has evolved during the past 15 yr. Early conceptual models assumed that very small volumes of water infiltrated into the bedrock (0.5–4.5 mm/yr, or 2–3 percent of rainfall), that much of the infiltrated water flowed laterally within the upper nonwelded units because of capillary barrier effects, and that the remaining water flowed down faults with a small amount flowing through the matrix of the lower welded, fractured rocks. It was believed that the matrix had to be saturated for fractures to flow. However, accumulating evidence indicated that infiltration rates were higher than initially estimated, such as infiltration modeling based on neutron borehole data, bomb-pulse isotopes deep in the mountain, perched water analyses and thermal analyses. Mechanisms supporting lateral diversion did not apply at these higher fluxes, and the flux calculated in the lower welded unit exceeded the conductivity of the matrix, implying vertical flow of water in the high permeability fractures of the potential repository host rock, and disequilibrium between matrix and fracture water potentials. The development of numerical modeling methods and parameter values evolved concurrently with the conceptual model in order to account for the observed field data, particularly fracture flow deep in the unsaturated zone. This paper presents the history of the evolution of conceptual models of hydrology and numerical models of unsaturated zone flow at Yucca Mountain, Nevada (Flint, A.L., Flint, L.E., Kwicklis, E.M., Bodvarsson, G.S., Fabryka-Martin, J.M., 2001. Hydrology of Yucca Mountain. Reviews of Geophysics in press). This retrospective is the basis for recommendations for optimizing the efficiency with which a viable and robust conceptual model can be developed for a complex site.

Nevada↗

USGS2019

Basal stress equations for granular debris masses on smooth or discretized slopes

Knowledge of basal stresses is essential for analyzing slope stability and modeling the dynamics and erosive potential of debris flows and avalanches. Here we derive and test new algebraic formulas for calculating the shear stress τ and normal stress σ at the base of variable‐thickness granular debris masses in states of static or dynamic equilibrium on slopes. The formulas include a lateral pressure coefficient κ , but use of a fixed value κ = 0.7 yields predictions of σ that on average err by less than 3% and of τ that on average err by less than 13% in matching basal stresses measured in six large‐scale experiments involving wet debris masses with varying geometries and compositions. Much larger prediction errors result from use of infinite‐slope or shallow‐debris approximations. Specialized versions of the new formulas apply if basal topography is discretized and represented by a “staircase” function in a digital elevation model. Use of these formulas to assess static limiting equilibrium conditions shows that the apparent basal Coulomb friction angle ϕ tread of debris that engages friction acting on the horizontal surfaces (or “treads”) of a staircase sloping at an angle θ is generally described by tan ϕ tread = tan ( ϕ − θ )+ κ tan θ , where ϕ is the true basal friction angle of the same debris in contact with a uniformly sloping bed. Differences between the values of ϕ and ϕ tread can greatly influence the results of numerical simulations that use unsmoothed digital elevation model topography to calculate the stability or dynamics of debris masses on slopes.

Journal of Geophysical Research-Earth Surface↗

USGS2024

A semi-mechanistic model for partitioning evapotranspiration reveals transpiration dominates the water flux in drylands

Popular evapotranspiration (ET) partitioning methods make assumptions that might not be well-suited to dryland ecosystems, such as high sensitivity of plant water-use efficiency (WUE) to vapor pressure deficit (VPD). Our objectives were to (a) create an ET partitioning model that can produce fine-scale estimates of transpiration (T) in drylands, and (b) use this approach to evaluate how climate controls T and WUE across ecosystem types and timescales along a dryland aridity gradient. We developed a novel, semi-mechanistic ET partitioning method using a Bayesian approach that constrains abiotic evaporation using process-based models, and loosely constrains time-varying WUE within an autoregressive framework. We used this method to estimate daily T and weekly WUE across seven dryland ecosystem types and found that T dominates ET across the aridity gradient. Then, we applied cross-wavelet coherence analysis to evaluate the temporal coherence between focal response variables (WUE and T/ET) and environmental variables. At yearly scales, we found that WUE at less arid, higher elevation sites was primarily limited by atmospheric moisture demand, and WUE at more arid, lower elevation sites was primarily limited by moisture supply. At sub-yearly timescales, WUE and VPD were sporadically correlated. Hence, ecosystem-scale dryland WUE is not always sensitive to changes in VPD at short timescales, despite this being a common assumption in many ET partitioning models. This new ET partitioning method can be used in dryland ecosystems to better understand how climate influences physically and biologically driven water fluxes.

New Mexico↗

USGS2014

CyberShake-derived ground-motion prediction models for the Los Angeles region with application to earthquake early warning

Real-time applications such as earthquake early warning (EEW) typically use empirical ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) along with event magnitude and source-to-site distances to estimate expected shaking levels. In this simplified approach, effects due to finite-fault geometry, directivity and site and basin response are often generalized, which may lead to a significant under- or overestimation of shaking from large earthquakes ( M > 6.5) in some locations. For enhanced site-specific ground-motion predictions considering 3-D wave-propagation effects, we develop support vector regression (SVR) models from the SCEC CyberShake low-frequency (<0.5 Hz) and broad-band (0–10 Hz) data sets. CyberShake encompasses 3-D wave-propagation simulations of >415 000 finite-fault rupture scenarios (6.5 ≤ M ≤ 8.5) for southern California defined in UCERF 2.0. We use CyberShake to demonstrate the application of synthetic waveform data to EEW as a ‘proof of concept’, being aware that these simulations are not yet fully validated and might not appropriately sample the range of rupture uncertainty. Our regression models predict the maximum and the temporal evolution of instrumental intensity (MMI) at 71 selected test sites using only the hypocentre, magnitude and rupture ratio, which characterizes uni- and bilateral rupture propagation. Our regression approach is completely data-driven (where here the CyberShake simulations are considered data) and does not enforce pre-defined functional forms or dependencies among input parameters. The models were established from a subset (∼20 per cent) of CyberShake simulations, but can explain MMI values of all >400 k rupture scenarios with a standard deviation of about 0.4 intensity units. We apply our models to determine threshold magnitudes (and warning times) for various active faults in southern California that earthquakes need to exceed to cause at least ‘moderate’, ‘strong’ or ‘very strong’ shaking in the Los Angeles (LA) basin. These thresholds are used to construct a simple and robust EEW algorithm: to declare a warning, the algorithm only needs to locate the earthquake and to verify that the corresponding magnitude threshold is exceeded. The models predict that a relatively moderate M 6.5–7 earthquake along the Palos Verdes, Newport-Inglewood/Rose Canyon, Elsinore or San Jacinto faults with a rupture propagating towards LA could cause ‘very strong’ to ‘severe’ shaking in the LA basin; however, warning times for these events could exceed 30 s.

California↗

USGS2013

The integration of geophysical and enhanced Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data into a rule-based, piecewise regression-tree model to estimate cheatgrass beginning of spring growth

Cheatgrass exhibits spatial and temporal phenological variability across the Great Basin as described by ecological models formed using remote sensing and other spatial data-sets. We developed a rule-based, piecewise regression-tree model trained on 99 points that used three data-sets – latitude, elevation, and start of season time based on remote sensing input data – to estimate cheatgrass beginning of spring growth (BOSG) in the northern Great Basin. The model was then applied to map the location and timing of cheatgrass spring growth for the entire area. The model was strong ( R 2 = 0.85) and predicted an average cheatgrass BOSG across the study area of 29 March–4 April. Of early cheatgrass BOSG areas, 65% occurred at elevations below 1452 m. The highest proportion of cheatgrass BOSG occurred between mid-April and late May. Predicted cheatgrass BOSG in this study matched well with previous Great Basin cheatgrass green-up studies.

Great Basin↗

USGS2009

Inducing in situ, nonlinear soil response applying an active source

[1] It is well known that soil sites have a profound effect on ground motion during large earthquakes. The complex structure of soil deposits and the highly nonlinear constitutive behavior of soils largely control nonlinear site response at soil sites. Measurements of nonlinear soil response under natural conditions are critical to advancing our understanding of soil behavior during earthquakes. Many factors limit the use of earthquake observations to estimate nonlinear site response such that quantitative characterization of nonlinear behavior relies almost exclusively on laboratory experiments and modeling of wave propagation. Here we introduce a new method for in situ characterization of the nonlinear behavior of a natural soil formation using measurements obtained immediately adjacent to a large vibrator source. To our knowledge, we are the first group to propose and test such an approach. Employing a large, surface vibrator as a source, we measure the nonlinear behavior of the soil by incrementally increasing the source amplitude over a range of frequencies and monitoring changes in the output spectra. We apply a homodyne algorithm for measuring spectral amplitudes, which provides robust signal-to-noise ratios at the frequencies of interest. Spectral ratios are computed between the receivers and the source as well as receiver pairs located in an array adjacent to the source, providing the means to separate source and near-source nonlinearity from pervasive nonlinearity in the soil column. We find clear evidence of nonlinearity in significant decreases in the frequency of peak spectral ratios, corresponding to material softening with amplitude, observed across the array as the source amplitude is increased. The observed peak shifts are consistent with laboratory measurements of soil nonlinearity. Our results provide constraints for future numerical modeling studies of strong ground motion during earthquakes.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2023

Mapping landslide susceptibility over large regions with limited data

Landslide susceptibility maps indicate the spatial distribution of landslide likelihood. Modeling susceptibility over large or diverse terrains remains a challenge due to the sparsity of landslide data (mapped extent of known landslides) and the variability in triggering conditions. Several different data sampling strategies of landslide locations used to train a susceptibility model are used to mitigate this challenge. However, to our knowledge, no study has systematically evaluated how different sampling strategies alter a model's predictor effects (i.e., how a predictor value influences the susceptibility output) critical to explaining differences in model outputs. Here, we introduce a statistical framework that examines the variation in predictor effects and the model accuracy (measured using receiver operator characteristics) to highlight why certain sampling strategies are more effective than others. Specifically, we apply our framework to an array of logistic regression models trained on landslide inventories collected at sub-regional scales over four terrains across the United States. Results show significant variations in predictor effects depending on the inventory used to train the models. The inconsistent predictor effects cause low accuracies when testing models on inventories outside the domain of the training data. Grouping test and training sets according to physiographic and ecological characteristics, which are thought to share similar triggering mechanisms, does not improve model accuracy. We also show that using limited landslide data distributed uniformly over the entire modeling domain is better than using dense but spatially isolated data to train a model for applications over large regions.

California, Kentucky, North Carolina, West Virgini↗