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At least 127 records · Page 7Linked to original sources
USGS2015

Southern Great Plains Rapid Ecoregional Assessment: pre-assessment report

The purpose of the Pre-Assessment Report for the Southern Great Plains Rapid Ecoregional Assessment (REA) is to document the selection process for and final list of Conservation Elements, Change Agents, and Management Questions developed during Phase I. The overall goal of the REAs being conducted for the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) is to provide information that supports regional planning and analysis for the management of ecological resources. The REA provides an assessment of baseline ecological conditions, an evaluation of current risks from drivers of ecosystem change, and a predictive capacity for evaluating future risks. The REA also may be used for identifying priority areas for conservation or restoration and for assessing the cumulative effects of a variety of land uses. There are several components of the REAs. Management Questions, developed by the BLM and partners for the ecoregion, identify the information needed for addressing land-management responsibilities. Conservation Elements represent regionally significant terrestrial and aquatic species and communities that are to be conserved and (or) restored. For each Conservation Element, key ecological attributes will be evaluated to determine the status of each species and community. The REA also will evaluate major drivers of ecosystem change, or Change Agents, currently affecting or likely to affect the status of Conservation Elements in the future. The relationships between Change Agents and key ecological attributes will be summarized using conceptual models. The REA process is a two-phase process. Phase I (pre-assessment) includes developing and finalizing the lists of priority Management Questions, Conservation Elements, and Change Agents, culminating in the REA Pre-Assessment Report. Chapter 1 provides an overview of the REA process. Chapter 2 describes the biophysical and anthropogenic features of the Southern Great Plains, and Chapter 3 explains the process used to identify Conservation Elements, Change Agents and Management Questionss. The remaining chapters each feature one of 19 Conservation Elements—6 ecological communities and 13 species (including 2 species assemblages)—to be addressed in Phase II. For each Conservation Element, we will address the four primary Change Agents—development, fire, invasive species, and climate change—required for the REA. In addition, we will evaluate insect pests and disease for particular Conservation Elements. Development includes effects related to energy and infrastructure, agricultural activities, and other human activities, including urbanization and recreation. An overview on the ecology and management issues for each Conservation Element is provided, including distribution and ecology, landscape structure and dynamics, and associated species of management concern affiliated with each Conservation Element. For each Conservation Element, effects of the Change Agents are described. An overview of potential key ecological attributes and potential Change Agents are summarized by conceptual models and tables. The tables provide an organizational framework and background information for evaluating the key ecological attributes and Change Agents in Phase II.

Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas↗
USGS2020

Assessing population-level consequences of anthropogenic stressors for terrestrial wildlife

Human activity influences wildlife. However, the ecological and conservation significances of these influences are difficult to predict and depend on their population‐level consequences. This difficulty arises partly because of information gaps, and partly because the data on stressors are usually collected in a count‐based manner (e.g., number of dead animals) that is difficult to translate into rate‐based estimates important to infer population‐level consequences (e.g., changes in mortality or population growth rates). However, ongoing methodological developments can provide information to make this transition. Here, we synthesize tools from multiple fields of study to propose an overarching, spatially explicit framework to assess population‐level consequences of anthropogenic stressors on terrestrial wildlife. A key component of this process is using ecological information from affected animals to upscale from count‐based field data on individuals to rate‐based demographic inference. The five steps to this framework are (1) framing the problem to identify species, populations, and assessment parameters; (2) field‐based measurement of the effect of the stressor on individuals; (3) characterizing the location and size of the populations of interest; (4) demographic modeling for those populations; and (5) assessing the significance of stressor‐induced changes in demographic rates. The tools required for each of these steps are well developed, and some have been used in conjunction with each other, but the entire group has not previously been unified together as we do in this framework. We detail these steps and then illustrate their application for two species affected by different anthropogenic stressors. In our examples, we use stable hydrogen isotope data to infer a catchment area describing the geographic origins of affected individuals, as the basis to estimate population size for that area. These examples reveal unexpectedly greater potential risks from stressors for the more common and widely distributed species. This work illustrates key strengths of the framework but also important areas for subsequent theoretical and technical development to make it still more broadly applicable.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2022

Balancing future renewable energy infrastructure siting and associated habitat loss for migrating whooping cranes

The expansion of human infrastructure has contributed to novel risks and disturbance regimes in most ecosystems, leading to considerable uncertainty about how species will respond to altered landscapes. A recent assessment revealed that whooping cranes ( Grus americana ), an endangered migratory waterbird species, avoid wind-energy infrastructure during migration. However, uncertainties regarding collective impacts of other types of human infrastructure, such as power lines on migration, variable drought conditions, and continued construction of wind energy infrastructure may compromise ongoing recovery efforts for whooping cranes. Droughts are increasing in frequency and severity throughout the whooping crane migration corridor, and the impacts of drought on stopover habitat use are largely unknown. Moreover, decision-based analyses are increasingly advocated to guide recovery planning for endangered species, yet applications remain rare. Using GPS locations from 57 whooping cranes from 2010 through 2016 in the United States Great Plains, we assessed habitat selection and avoidance of potential disturbances during migration relative to drought conditions, and we used these results in an optimization analysis to select potential sites for new wind energy developments that minimize relative habitat loss for whooping cranes and maximize wind energy potential. Drought occurrence and severity varied spatially and temporally across the migration corridor during our study period. Whooping cranes rarely used areas <5 km from human settlements and wind energy infrastructure under both drought and non-drought conditions, and <2 km from power lines during non-drought conditions, with the lowest likelihood of use near wind energy infrastructure. Whooping cranes differed in their selection of wetland and cropland land cover types depending on drought or non-drought conditions. We identified scenarios for wind energy expansion across the migration corridor and in select states, which are robust to uncertain drought conditions, where future loss of highly selected stopover habitats could be minimized under a common strategy. Our approach was to estimate functional habitat loss while integrating current disturbances, potential future disturbances, and uncertainty in drought conditions. Therefore, dynamic models describing potential costs associated with risk-averse behaviors resulting from future developments can inform proactive conservation before population impacts occur.

Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dak↗
USGS2021

Cape Romain partnership for coastal protection

This final report summarizes activities, outcomes, and lessons learned from a 3-year project titled “Climate Change Adaptation for Coastal National Wildlife Refuges” with the Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) and local partners in the surrounding South Carolina Lowcountry. The Lowcountry is classified as the 10-county area encompassing the coastal plain of South Carolina (this report specifically focuses on Berkeley, Charleston, and Georgetown Counties). The goals of this work, sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center (SECASC), were to foster active engagement with stakeholders; to develop a comprehensive definition of adaptation problems faced by agencies, organizations, and individuals near the Cape Romain NWR that accounts for global change, local values, knowledge and perceptions; and to encourage social learning and building of effective networks and trust across South Carolina Lowcountry organizations and individuals. Although project scoping began at the scale of the Atlantic seaboard, by engaging with NWRs from Massachusetts to Florida, participating refuge personnel eventually selected the Cape Romain NWR to serve as a case study for testing our goals. The Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Conservation was established to address global change impacts at a regional level and includes representation from Federal and State resource agencies, local conservation nongovernmental organizations, and organizations representing underserved community interests. Research topics, originating from discussions with Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Conservation members, focused on quantifying key drivers of change including localized sea-level rise (SLR) predictions, estimates of coastal hurricane inundation as amplified by SLR, and urban growth trends and forecasts. These key drivers provided a foundation to engage stakeholders in planning exercises to begin a process of collective understanding and collaborative decision making. The goal of this process was to develop collective strategies of adaptation to enhance community and ecosystem resilience in the South Carolina Lowcountry. South Carolina’s Lowcountry is experiencing rapid environmental and social transformation because of SLR rates approaching twice the global average, chronic tidal flooding and catastrophic storm surges, erosion and loss of habitats that provide essential services to wildlife and humans, and increasing social polarization fueled by aggressive low-density urban growth and other forms of land conversion. To support characterizations of plausible future scenarios, we used available or, in some cases, developed new models to project future conditions of key environmental and social-economic drivers. Because of the imprecision of mean global SLR projections, the SECASC commissioned a climatological study to account for local conditions and multiple representative concentration pathways to project a tailored distribution of future sea levels. These projections were matched to SLR scenarios provided by existing models to anticipate the range of future coastal habitat changes in the South Carolina Lowcountry. SLR scenarios were also incorporated into existing storm-surge models, which do not account for alternate baseline sea levels, to project the local effects of future hurricanes. To evaluate the extent and effects of population growth and urban expansion, we relied on an existing urban-growth model to map the spatial distribution of land-conversion probabilities, the total area of which is predicted to increase twofold to threefold over the next 60 years. In addition to this simplified model, an econometric model is in development to account for nonlinear feedback dynamics in land value, land use, and ecosystem service production. Although not yet completed, the goals of this model are to produce more-detailed projections of growth dynamics and to allow predictions of development patterns resulting from alternate land-use planning policies and incentives. Collaborative planning for an uncertain future requires more than providing decision makers with information on future physical and ecological conditions; developing effective and consensual strategies must also integrate sociological values, multiple cultural perspectives, and an understanding of human behavior. To support broad stakeholder engagement in integrative approaches to adaptation planning, emphasis was placed on the importance of considering differences in how individuals perceive their environment and create meaning. Because cultural frameworks form the basis for perceptions and, ultimately, the behaviors of individuals and institutions, we describe a model of human behavior and how it can be used to understand the effect of cultural complexity and variation in perception on choices, behavioral change, and long-term maintenance of behaviors. We consider a model commonly used in the field of behavioral health that accommodates variation in human perception when describing stages of behavior and the dynamics of behavioral change. Tailoring communication and engagement activities to targeted stakeholders is likely to benefit from increased understanding of behavioral change processes. The complex nature of this problem limited the usefulness of a traditional decision-analytic approach, we explored alternative methods for engagement, collaborative learning and decision making. Recognizing that project partners and Lowcountry stakeholders may be at different stages of preparedness and interest level for modifying behavior as a function of global change, we facilitated a scenario-planning exercise to familiarize partners with this well-established approach for communicating the opportunities and threats arising under alternative, plausible futures. We developed narratives for four alternative South Carolina Lowcountry scenarios to be used in later strategic planning that focus on quantitative trends for three primary drivers with high impact and high uncertainty: manifestations of climate change, social-political shifts at a global level, and forces of local value and power structures. This scenario-planning exercise underscored the complex relation between the temporospatial scale of the production of ecological goods and services and the institutional scale at which they are managed. We then guided the partners through an assessment of the relevant strengths and weaknesses of the Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Protection, using the threats and opportunities characterized by each scenario to understand how the partnership might respond when attempting to meet conservation and societal objectives. The partnership identified key strengths including partnership experience, outreach and technical capacities, a substantial conservation land base, and high social cohesion in the South Carolina Lowcountry. Limited communication expertise, institutional inertia, and insufficient staffing and funding were recognized as important weaknesses across the partnership. By examining and scoring combinations of internal strengths and weaknesses and external threats and opportunities, the partnership developed sets of prioritized strategies to consider in the context of a given scenario. Although we had insufficient time to examine all scenarios in detail, the intent was to identify a portfolio of strategic actions to address threats and opportunities represented in multiple plausible futures. Top-ranking strategies encompassed a range of actions that focused on strengthening the conservation community and communicating the benefits of nature (that is, ecosystem services) to leveraging partnerships to expand land protection. This report also details the methods and preliminary results of several models developed or applied in support of this project. Two parcel-selection algorithms were used to evaluate anticipated habitat changes and patterns of urban growth to guide decisions on optimal conservation reserve design to protect habitat communities. One approach used a widely available planning software (MARXAN) to maximize conservation benefits near the Cape Romain NWR, whereas the other approach was a novel application of economic theory to account for uncertainty in future conditions and for the risks of unanticipated habitat loss. This latter model applies modern portfolio theory to estimate the risk of investing in any portfolio of land parcels (that is, candidate “reserves”) under climate-change uncertainty by quantifying the variation and spatial correlation of conservation benefits derived from each portfolio. We expanded the range of actions beyond simply whether or not to invest in a set of land parcels, an approach commonly used in spatial conservation planning, to also include consideration of divestment from currently protected lands. Such refinements allow for better accounting of system dynamics and can evaluate the benefits of flexible conservation tools such as rolling easements. Model results were conditional on a decision maker’s risk tolerance but highlighted general strategies of land conservation to increase future habitat representation beyond what is expected under the current protected land base. We built models that may help inform coastal planning by estimating salinity dynamics and the performance of oyster reef restoration efforts to predict the combined effects of global change and management of freshwater flows on coastal habitats and the processes that contribute to their resilience. These models can support restoration decisions by evaluating the expected benefits of site locations for shoreline protection and fisheries production. Lastly, we developed a spatially explicit economic model that predicts feedback dynamics among land value, land-use change, and effects on ecosystem service provision to explore zoning policies and incentives on urban growth and ecosystem services. We summarize these efforts with insights and considerations for the Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Protection to continue to engage stakeholders in effective adaptation planning. First, notions of place attachment (referred to as sense of place), and the role of culture in social discourse are increasingly being used to understand the complex interactions between society and the environment and how societies respond and adapt to climate change. Sense of place was a unifying theme whenever the future of the South Carolina Lowcountry was discussed. The contribution of the South Carolina Lowcountry’s environmental wealth, rich cultural heritage, and quality of life to sense of place has important implications for how adaptation planning might best be pursued. More community-based governance of the commons (in other words, natural and cultural resources held in common), in which broad stakeholder participation and power sharing are key elements, is considered important. This devolution of governance is characterized by polycentric institutions and self-organizing social networks that promote a local culture of knowledge sharing, problem solving, and learning. These so-called bridging organizations (or individuals) often provide the leadership necessary to bring together potentially disparate Government agencies and institutions, private organizations, and individuals in a collective process of problem solving. Our observations also suggest that the conservation community in the South Carolina Lowcountry views its activities as integral to the broader governance of social-ecological systems, in which responses to the forces of global change are mediated through culture, economics, and politics. Rather than directly competing with other interests, the South Carolina Lowcountry conservation community seems to embrace an interpretation of conservation in which the fundamental objective is the quality of human life rather than environmental protection. Fundamental to the types of governance reforms described above is the notion of coproduction, in which experts and users collaborate to develop a shared body of knowledge. In this approach, scientists work with stakeholders to help frame questions, design research, and collect and analyze data. Such sustained collaborations are increasingly believed to be an effective way to produce useable (or actionable) science. The emphasis on social learning, leveraging strong social networks, coordinating and deliberating among diverse stakeholders, and applying principles of adaptive management is an essential contribution to adaptive capacity. The diverse and robust set of scientific approaches, methods to help stakeholders collaborate in effective and goal-driven planning processes, and decision tools resulting from this project hopefully will assist Cape Romain NWR and its partners prepare for climatic, ecological, and social changes over the coming decades.

South Carolina↗
USGS2022

The role of satellite telemetry data in 21st century conservation of polar bears (Ursus maritimus)

Satellite telemetry (ST) has played a critical role in the management and conservation of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) over the last 50 years. ST data provide biological information relevant to subpopulation delineation, movements, habitat use, maternal denning, health, human-bear interactions, and accurate estimates of vital rates and abundance. Given that polar bears are distributed at low densities over vast and remote habitats, much of the information provided by ST data cannot be collected by other means. Obtaining ST data for polar bears requires chemical immobilization and application of a tracking device. Although immobilization has not been found to have negative effects beyond a several-day reduction in activity, over the last few decades opposition to immobilization and deployment of satellite-linked radio collars has resulted in a lack of current ST data in many of the 19 recognized polar bear subpopulations. Here, we review the uses of ST data for polar bears and evaluate its role in addressing 21 st century conservation and management challenges, which include estimation of sustainable harvest rates, understanding the impacts of climate warming, delineating critical habitat, and assessing potential anthropogenic impacts from tourism, resource development and extraction. We found that in subpopulations where ST data have been consistently collected, information was available to estimate vital rates and subpopulation density, document the effects of sea-ice loss, and inform management related to subsistence harvest and regulatory requirements. In contrast, a lack of ST data in some subpopulations resulted in increased bias and uncertainty in ecological and demographic parameters, which has a range of negative consequences. As sea-ice loss due to climate warming continues, there is a greater need to monitor polar bear distribution, habitat use, abundance, and subpopulation connectivity. We conclude that continued collection of ST data will be critically important for polar bear management and conservation in the 21 st century and that the benefits of immobilizing small numbers of individual polar bears in order to deploy ST devices significantly outweigh the risks.

Frontiers in Marine Science↗
USGS2018

Changing environmental gradients over forty years alter ecomorphological variation in Guadalupe Bass Micropterus treculii throughout a river basin

Understanding the degree of intraspecific variation within and among populations is a key aspect of predicting the capacity of a species to respond to anthropogenic disturbances. However, intraspecific variation is usually assessed at either limited temporal, but broad spatial scales or vice versa, which can make assessing changes in response to long-term disturbances challenging. We evaluated the relationship between the longitudinal gradient of changing flow regimes and land use/land cover patterns since 1980 and morphological variation of Guadalupe Bass Micropterus treculii throughout the Colorado River Basin of central Texas. The Colorado River Basin in Texas has experienced major alterations to the hydrologic regime due to changing land- and water-use patterns. Historical collections of Guadalupe Bass prior to rapid human-induced change present the unique opportunity to study the response of populations to varying environmental conditions through space and time. Morphological differentiation of Guadalupe Bass associated with temporal changes in flow regimes and land use/land cover patterns suggests that they are exhibiting intraspecific trait variability, with contemporary individuals showing increased body depth, in response to environmental alteration through time (specifically related to an increase in herbaceous land cover, maximum flows, and the number of low pulses and high pulses). Additionally, individuals from tributaries with increased hydrologic alteration associated with urbanization or agricultural withdrawals tended to have a greater distance between the anal and caudal fin. These results reveal trait variation that may help to buffer populations under conditions of increased urbanization and sprawl, human population growth, and climate risk, all of which impose novel selective pressures, especially on endemic species like Guadalupe Bass. Our results contribute an understanding of the adaptability and capacity of an endemic population to respond to expected future changes based on demographic or climatic projection.

Texas↗
USGS2019

Nonlinearities in transmission dynamics and efficient management of vector-borne pathogens

Integrated Pest Management (IPM) is an approach to minimizing economic and environmental harm caused by pests, and Integrated Vector Management (IVM) uses similar methods to minimize pathogen transmission by vectors. The risk of acquiring a vector-borne infection is often quantified using the density of infected vectors. The relationship between vector numbers and risk of human infection is more or less linear when both vector numbers and pathogen prevalence in vectors are low, but the relationship is nonlinear when vector density and/or infection prevalence are high. Therefore, the density of infected vectors often does not accurately predict risk of human exposure to pathogens, and traditional estimates of % Control often overestimate the level of protection from infection resulting from management programs. We suggest a modified estimator, % Protection, which more accurately quantifies protection against human infection resulting from a management intervention. Cost-effectiveness of a management program is critical to protection of both public health and the environment, because the more efficiently available resources and funding are used, the fewer people get sick, and well-targeted efficient management programs minimize the need for poorly-targeted, expensive environmental interventions (e.g., broadscale pesticide applications) that tend to damage nontarget organisms and natural systems. Design of an efficient, cost-effective IVM program requires knowledge of the cost-effectiveness functions (the effectiveness of control methods at lowering vector bites and/or infection prevalence with different levels of application) of the various control methods to be applied. Alternative programs can be designed that optimize % Protection by integrating different control methods at different levels of investment, and environmental effects of these alternatives can be compared, allowing environmental considerations to be included explicitly in the decision process. IPM, IVM, and Adaptive Management share the characteristic that management decisions must be made with incomplete knowledge of the functioning of natural systems or the efficacies of interventions. IVM surveillance programs that assess the effects of individual control methods and of combinations of control methods on the numbers of vector bites and on infection prevalence in vectors, can increase knowledge of pathogen transmission dynamics and provide information to improve program effectiveness in subsequent applications.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2025

Intrinsic and extrinsic factors simultaneously modulated the use of roadways by golden eagles during winter.

Animals often face trade-offs wherein foraging opportunities may coincide spatiotemporally with higher risk of mortality, especially within landscapes altered by humans. Resolving such trade-offs can depend on intrinsic factors such as age and sex, and extrinsic factors (e.g., resource availability) within the surrounding environment. Yet both are rarely assessed simultaneously. Roads constitute a widespread form of human-induced habitat alteration that concurrently offer potential food rewards, in the form of carrion from roadkill, and risk in the form of death by vehicle collision. We evaluated the extent to which suites of intrinsic and extrinsic factors modulated the selection for areas near roads by a large opportunistic scavenger, the golden eagle ( Aquila chrysaetos ). We used a collaborative, multi-agency telemetry dataset of 51 golden eagles overwintering in Wyoming, USA during 2014 to 2023 representing 175 unique eagle-years. Both intrinsic and extrinsic factors influenced road use. Males were 14.2 times more likely than females to select areas closer to roads. Adults, compared with their subadult counterparts (Subadult I, Subadult II, and Subadult III) were 16.3, 16, and 15.3 times more likely to select areas near roads, respectively. Moreover, individuals were more likely to select areas near roads during periods with higher snow depth on the landscape. Specifically, during periods of high snow depth (> 17.9 cm) golden eagles were 17 times more likely to select areas near roads than during periods with no snow. Our results suggest that both intrinsic and extrinsic factors influenced proximate habitat decisions and the use of areas near risky landscape elements. Our work has important implications for the contexts under which efforts to reduce golden eagle mortality, such as the removal of carcasses from roads, would be most effective.

Wyoming↗
USGS2021

Demographic risk assessment for a harvested species threatened by climate change: Polar bears in the Chukchi Sea

Climate change threatens global biodiversity. Many species vulnerable to climate change are important to humans for nutritional, cultural, and economic reasons. Polar bears Ursus maritimus are threatened by sea-ice loss and represent a subsistence resource for Indigenous people. We applied a novel population modeling-management framework that is based on species life history and accounts for habitat loss to evaluate subsistence harvest for the Chukchi Sea (CS) polar bear subpopulation. Harvest strategies followed a state-dependent approach under which new data were used to update the harvest on a predetermined management interval. We found that a harvest strategy with a starting total harvest rate of 2.7% (˜85 bears/yr at current abundance), a 2:1 male-to-female ratio, and a 10-yr management interval would likely maintain subpopulation abundance above maximum net productivity level for the next 35 yr (approximately three polar bear generations), our primary criterion for sustainability. Plausible bounds on starting total harvest rate were 1.7–3.9%, where the range reflects uncertainty due to sampling variation, environmental variation, model selection, and differing levels of risk tolerance. The risk of undesired demographic outcomes (e.g., overharvest) was positively related to harvest rate, management interval, and projected declines in environmental carrying capacity; and negatively related to precision in population data. Results reflect several lines of evidence that the CS subpopulation has been productive in recent years, although it is uncertain how long this will last as sea-ice loss continues. Our methods provide a template for balancing trade-offs among protection, use, research investment, and other factors. Demographic risk assessment and state-dependent management will become increasingly important for harvested species, like polar bears, that exhibit spatiotemporal variation in their response to climate change.

Chukchi Sea↗
USGS2022

Automating sandhill crane counts from nocturnal thermal aerial imagery using deep learning

Population monitoring is essential to management and conservation efforts for migratory birds, but traditional low-altitude aerial surveys with human observers are plagued by individual observer bias and risk to flight crews. Aerial surveys that use remote sensing can reduce bias and risk, but manual counting of wildlife in imagery is laborious and may be cost-prohibitive. Therefore, automated methods for counting are critical to cost-efficient application of remote sensing for wildlife surveys covering large areas. We conducted nocturnal surveys of sandhill cranes ( Antigone canadensis ) during spring migration in the Central Platte River Valley of Nebraska, USA, using midwave thermal infrared sensors. We developed a framework for automated counting of sandhill cranes from thermal imagery using deep learning, assessed and compared the performance of two automated counting models, and quantified the effect of spatial resolution on counting accuracy. Aerial thermal imagery data were collected in March 2018 and 2021; 40 images were analyzed. We applied two deep learning models: an object detection approach, Faster R-CNN and a recently developed pixel-density estimation approach, ASPDNet. Model performance was determined using data independent of the training imagery. The effect of spatial resolution was quantified with a beta regression on relative error. Our results showed model accuracy of 9% mean percent error for ASPDNet and 18% for Faster R-CNN. Most error was related to the undercounting of sandhill cranes. ASPDNet had < 50% of the error of Faster R-CNN as measured by mean percent error, root-mean-squared error and mean absolute error. Spatial resolution affected accuracy of both models, with error rate increasing with coarser resolution, particularly with Faster R-CNN. Deep learning models, particularly pixel-density estimators, can accurately automate counting of migratory birds in a dense, aggregate setting such as nocturnal roosting sites.

Nebraska↗
USGS2009

The ecological limits of hydrologic alteration (ELOHA): A new framework for developing regional environmental flow standards

The flow regime is a primary determinant of the structure and function of aquatic and riparian ecosystems for streams and rivers. Hydrologic alteration has impaired riverine ecosystems on a global scale, and the pace and intensity of human development greatly exceeds the ability of scientists to assess the effects on a river-by-river basis. Current scientific understanding of hydrologic controls on riverine ecosystems and experience gained from individual river studies support development of environmental flow standards at the regional scale. 2. This paper presents a consensus view from a group of international scientists on a new framework for assessing environmental flow needs for many streams and rivers simultaneously to foster development and implementation of environmental flow standards at the regional scale. This framework, the ecological limits of hydrologic alteration (ELOHA), is a synthesis of a number of existing hydrologic techniques and environmental flow methods that are currently being used to various degrees and that can support comprehensive regional flow management. The flexible approach allows scientists, water-resource managers and stakeholders to analyse and synthesise available scientific information into ecologically based and socially acceptable goals and standards for management of environmental flows. 3. The ELOHA framework includes the synthesis of existing hydrologic and ecological databases from many rivers within a user-defined region to develop scientifically defensible and empirically testable relationships between flow alteration and ecological responses. These relationships serve as the basis for the societally driven process of developing regional flow standards. This is to be achieved by first using hydrologic modelling to build a 'hydrologic foundation' of baseline and current hydrographs for stream and river segments throughout the region. Second, using a set of ecologically relevant flow variables, river segments within the region are classified into a few distinctive flow regime types that are expected to have different ecological characteristics. These river types can be further subclassified according to important geomorphic features that define hydraulic habitat features. Third, the deviation of current-condition flows from baseline-condition flow is determined. Fourth, flow alteration-ecological response relationships are developed for each river type, based on a combination of existing hydroecological literature, expert knowledge and field studies across gradients of hydrologic alteration. 4. Scientific uncertainty will exist in the flow alteration-ecological response relationships, in part because of the confounding of hydrologic alteration with other important environmental determinants of river ecosystem condition (e.g. temperature). Application of the ELOHA framework should therefore occur in a consensus context where stakeholders and decision-makers explicitly evaluate acceptable risk as a balance between the perceived value of the ecological goals, the economic costs involved and the scientific uncertainties in functional relationships between ecological responses and flow alteration. 5. The ELOHA framework also should proceed in an adaptive management context, where collection of monitoring data or targeted field sampling data allows for testing of the proposed flow alteration-ecological response relationships. This empirical validation process allows for a fine-tuning of environmental flow management targets. The ELOHA framework can be used both to guide basic research in hydroecology and to further implementation of more comprehensive environmental flow management of freshwater sustainability on a global scale. ?? 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Freshwater Biology↗
USGS2020

Parsing the effects of demography, climate, and management on recurrent brucellosis outbreaks in elk

1. Zoonotic pathogens can harm human health and well-being directly or by impacting livestock. Pathogens that spillover from wildlife can also impair conservation efforts if humans perceive wildlife as pests. Brucellosis, caused by the bacterium Brucella abortus, circulates in elk and bison herds of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and poses a risk to cattle and humans. Our goal was to understand the relative effects of climatic drivers, host demography, and management control programs on disease dynamics. 2. Using >20 years of serologic, demographic, and environmental data on brucellosis in elk, we built stochastic compartmental models to assess the influences of climate forcing, herd immunity, population turnover, and management interventions on pathogen transmission. Data were collected at feedgrounds visited in winter by free-ranging elk in Wyoming, USA. 3. Snowpack, hypothesized as a driver of elk aggregation and thus brucellosis transmission, was strongly correlated across feedgrounds. We expected this variable to drive synchronized disease dynamics across herds. Instead, we demonstrate asynchronous epizootics driven by variation in demographic rates. 4. We evaluated the effectiveness of test-and-slaughter of seropositive female elk at two feedgrounds. Test-and-slaughter temporarily reduced herd-level seroprevalence but likely reduced herd immunity while removing few infectious individuals, resulting in subsequent outbreaks once the intervention ceased. We simulated an alternative strategy of removing seronegative female elk and found it would increase herd immunity, yielding fewer infections. We evaluated a second experimental treatment wherein feeding density was reduced at one feedground, but we found no evidence for an effect despite a decade of implementation. 5. Synthesis and applications: Positive serostatus is often weakly correlated with infectiousness but is nevertheless used to make management decisions including lethal removal in wildlife disease systems. We show how this can have adverse consequences whereas efforts that maintain herd immunity can have longer-term protective effects. Climatic drivers may not result in synchronous disease dynamics across populations unless vital rates are also similar because demographic factors have a large influence on disease patterns.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2022

The wildland-urban interface in the United States based on 125 million building locations

The wildland-urban interface (WUI) is the focus of many important land management issues, such as wildfire, habitat fragmentation, invasive species, and human-wildlife conflicts. Wildfire is an especially critical issue, because housing growth in the WUI increases wildfire ignitions and the number of homes at risk. Identifying the WUI is important for assessing and mitigating impacts of development on wildlands and for protecting homes from natural hazards, but data on housing development for large areas are often coarse. We created new WUI maps for the conterminous U.S. based on 125 million individual building locations, offering higher spatial precision compared to existing maps based on U.S. census housing data. Building point locations were based on a building footprint dataset from Microsoft®. We classified WUI across the conterminous U.S. at 30-m resolution using a circular neighborhood mapping algorithm with a variable radius to determine thresholds of housing density and vegetation cover. We used our maps to (1) determine the total area of the WUI and number of buildings included, (2) assess the sensitivity of WUI area included and spatial pattern of WUI maps to choice of neighborhood size, (3) assess regional differences between building-based WUI maps and census-based WUI maps, and (4) determine how building location accuracy affected WUI map accuracy. Our building-based WUI maps identified 5.6% – 18.8% of the conterminous U.S. as being in the WUI, with larger neighborhoods increasing WUI area but excluding isolated building clusters. Building-based maps identified more WUI area relative to census-based maps for all but the smallest neighborhoods, particularly in the north-central states, and large differences were attributable to high numbers of non-housing structures in rural areas. Overall WUI classification accuracy was 98.0%. For wildfire risk mapping and for general purposes, WUI maps based on the 500-m neighborhood represent the original Federal Register definition of the WUI; these maps include clusters of buildings in and adjacent to wildlands and exclude remote, isolated buildings. Our approach for mapping the WUI offers flexibility and high spatial detail, and can be widely applied to take advantage of the growing availability of high-resolution building footprint datasets and classification methods.

Conterminous United States↗
USGS2008

Occurrence, distribution and transport of pesticides into the Salton Sea Basin, California, 2001-2002

The Salton Sea is a hypersaline lake located in southeastern California. Concerns over the ecological impacts of sediment quality and potential human exposure to dust emissions from exposed lakebed sediments resulting from anticipated shrinking of shoreline led to a study of pesticide distribution and transport within the Salton Sea Basin, California, in 2001-2002. Three sampling stations-upriver, river mouth, and offshore-were established along each of the three major rivers that discharge into the Salton Sea. Large-volume water samples were collected for analysis of pesticides in water and suspended sediments at the nine sampling stations. Samples of the bottom sediment were also collected at each site for pesticide analysis. Sampling occurred in October 2001, March-April 2002, and October 2002, coinciding with the regional fall and spring peaks in pesticide use in the heavily agricultural watershed. Fourteen current-use pesticides were detected in water and the majority of dissolved concentrations ranged from the limits of detection to 151 ng/l. Diazinon, EPTC and malathion were detected at much higher concentrations (940-3,830 ng/l) at the New and Alamo River upriver and near-shore stations. Concentrations of carbaryl, dacthal, diazinon, and EPTC were higher in the two fall sampling periods, whereas concentrations of atrazine, carbofuran, and trifluralin were higher during the spring, which matched seasonal use patterns of these pesticides. Current-use pesticides were also detected on suspended and bed sediments in concentrations ranging from detection limits to 106 ng/g. Chlorpyrifos, dacthal, EPTC, trifluralin, and DDE were the most frequently detected pesticides on sediments from all three rivers. The number of detections and concentrations of suspended sediment-associated pesticides were often similar for the river upriver and near-shore sites, consistent with downstream transport of pesticides via suspended sediment. While detectable suspended sediment pesticide concentrations were more sporadic than detected aqueous concentrations, seasonal trends were similar to those for dissolved concentrations. Generally, the pesticides detected on suspended sediments were the same as those on the bed sediments, and concentrations were similar, especially at the Alamo River upriver site. With a few exceptions, pesticides were not detected in suspended or bed sediments from the off-shore sites. The partitioning of pesticides between water and sediment was not predictable from solely the physical-chemical properties of individual pesticide compounds, but appear to be a complicated function of the quantity of pesticide applied in the watershed, residence time of sediments in the water, and compound solubility and hydrophobicity. Sediment concentrations of most pesticides were found to be 100-1,000 times lower than the low-effects levels determined in human health risk assessment studies. However, maximum concentrations of chlorpyrifos on suspended sediments were approximately half the low-effects level, suggesting the need for further sediment characterization of lake sediments proximate to riverine inputs. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Hydrobiologia↗
USGS2019

Analysis of groundwater response to tidal fluctuations, Operable Unit 1, Naval Base Kitsap, Keyport, Washington

Chlorinated volatile organic compounds have affected groundwater beneath a former 9-acre landfill at Operable Unit 1 (OU 1) of Naval Base Kitsap (NBK) Keyport, in Keyport, Washington. The landfill was the primary disposal area for domestic and industrial waste generated by NBK Keyport from the 1930s through 1973. Naval Facilities Engineering Command Northwest, in conjunction with the Environmental Protection Agency, Washington State Department of Ecology, and the Suquamish Tribe, is charged with collecting necessary data to monitor the contamination left in place and to ensure that the site does not pose a risk to human health or the environment. To support these efforts, refined information was collected on how groundwater levels throughout OU 1 respond to tidal fluctuations at this nearshore site adjacent to Liberty Bay, an inlet of Puget Sound. The information was analyzed to determine the optimal times during the semidiurnal and the neap-spring tidal cycles to sample groundwater for contaminants associated with fresh groundwater originating from OU 1. The optimal times for sampling are presumed to be when fresh groundwater flowing seaward is least impeded by elevated tides, and those times are related to predicted tide levels by tidal lags, the durations between low tides, and corresponding low groundwater levels. Discrete groundwater-specific conductance data also were collected to determine if a seawater/freshwater interface was present at any of the monitoring wells, and to inform decisions on the depth at which groundwater should be sampled in existing wells. Groundwater and surface-water levels were monitored at 19 monitoring wells and five adjacent surface-water sites. Specific conductance was monitored in each surface-water site. All time-series data parameters were collected every 15 minutes during a 4-week duration to measure how nearshore groundwater responds to tidal forcing. Time-series data were collected from July 12, 2018, to August 8, 2018, a period that included neap and spring tides. Vertical water-quality profiles were measured once in the screened interval of nine selected monitoring wells. The profiles included measurements at the top, middle, and bottom of each saturated screen interval. Tidal lag times were determined relative to tidal levels in Liberty Bay (rather than in the more nearby Tide Flats) because the predicted tides for the Poulsbo, Washington Station (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA] Station 9445719) that are used to schedule groundwater sampling represent open-water conditions in the area; a sill that separates Dogfish Bay from the Tide Flats clearly affects the timing and magnitude of low-low tides in the Tide Flats. Calculated tidal lag times were divided into three general groups: (1) wells where groundwater responded to tidal level changes immediately, (2) wells where groundwater responded to tidal level changes within about 2–5 hours, and (3) wells where groundwater had minimal response to tidal level changes. Groundwater levels in the middle group of wells primarily responded in concert with tidal level changes in the Tide Flats rather than tidal level changes in Liberty Bay. An intended sampling depth refinement based on an assessment of transient seawater intrusion was not completed because of a failure to collect specific-conductance time-series data in select wells. Instead, discrete specific-conductance data from this and prior studies were evaluated to determine that the midpoint of well screens in OU 1 wells can be assumed to be a reasonably representative of undiluted groundwater. When sampling during spring (rather than neap) tides (as has generally been the standard practice at OU 1), the optimal time to sample the monitoring wells influenced by tides would be to add the tidal lags presented in this report to the time of the predicted low-low tide for Liberty Bay as measured at NOAA Station 9445719 at Poulsbo, Washington. Sampling schedules for the six wells where groundwater levels were only minimally influenced by tide changes should not be constrained by tidal conditions.

Washington↗
USGS2018

Time-varying predatory behavior is primary predictor of fine-scale movement of wildland-urban cougars

Background While many species have suffered from the detrimental impacts of increasing human population growth, some species, such as cougars ( Puma concolor ), have been observed using human-modified landscapes. However, human-modified habitat can be a source of both increased risk and increased food availability, particularly for large carnivores. Assessing preferential use of the landscape is important for managing wildlife and can be particularly useful in transitional habitats, such as at the wildland-urban interface. Preferential use is often evaluated using resource selection functions (RSFs), which are focused on quantifying habitat preference using either a temporally static framework or researcher-defined temporal delineations. Many applications of RSFs do not incorporate time-varying landscape availability or temporally-varying behavior, which may mask conflict and avoidance behavior. Methods Contemporary approaches to incorporate landscape availability into the assessment of habitat selection include spatio-temporal point process models, step selection functions, and continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) models; in contrast with the other methods, the CTMC model allows for explicit inference on animal movement in continuous-time. We used a hierarchical version of the CTMC framework to model speed and directionality of fine-scale movement by a population of cougars inhabiting the Front Range of Colorado, U.S.A., an area exhibiting rapid population growth and increased recreational use, as a function of individual variation and time-varying responses to landscape covariates. Results We found evidence for individual- and daily temporal-variability in cougar response to landscape characteristics. Distance to nearest kill site emerged as the most important driver of movement at a population-level. We also detected seasonal differences in average response to elevation, heat loading, and distance to roads. Motility was also a function of amount of development, with cougars moving faster in developed areas than in undeveloped areas. Conclusions The time-varying framework allowed us to detect temporal variability that would be masked in a generalized linear model, and improved the within-sample predictive ability of the model. The high degree of individual variation suggests that, if agencies want to minimize human-wildlife conflict management options should be varied and flexible. However, due to the effect of recursive behavior on cougar movement, likely related to the location and timing of potential kill-sites, kill-site identification tools may be useful for identifying areas of potential conflict.

Colorado↗
USGS2011

Valuation of rangeland ecosystem services

Economic valuation lends itself well to the anthropocentric orientation of ecosystem services. An economic perspective on ecosystems portrays them as natural assets providing a flow of goods and services valuable to individuals and society collectively. A few examples include the purification of drinking water, reduced risk from flooding and other extreme events, pollination of agricultural crops, climate regulation, and recreation opportunities from plant and animal habitat maintenance, among many others. Once these goods and services are identified and quantified, they can be monetized to complete the valuation process. The monetization of ecosystem goods and services (in the form of dollars) provides a common metric that allows for cross-comparison of attributes and evaluation of differing ecological scenarios. Complicating the monetization process is the fact that most of these goods and services are public and non-market in nature; meaning they are non-rival and non-exclusive and are typically not sold in a traditional market setting where monetary values are revealed. Instead, one must employ non-market valuation techniques, with primary valuation methods typically being very time and resource consuming, intimidating to non-economists, and often impractical. For these reasons, benefit transfer methods have gained popularity. This methodology harnesses the primary collection results of existing studies to make inferences about the economic values of non-market goods and services at an alternative policy site (in place and/or in time). For instance, if a primary valuation study on oak reestablishment on rangelands in southern California yielded a value of $30 per-acre associated with water regulation, this result can be transferred, with some adjustments, to say something about the value of an acre of oaks on rangelands in northern portions of the state. The economic valuation of rangeland ecosystem services has many roles. Economic values may be used as input into analyzing the costs and benefits associated with policies being proposed, or possibly already implemented. For example, with monetized values acting as a common metric, one could compare the 'benefits' of converting a rangeland ecosystem for commercial development (perhaps estimated at the market value of the developed land) with the foregone ecosystem service values (in addition to any land income lost) resulting from that land conversion. Similarly, ecosystem service values can be used to determine the level of return on an investment. rhis is a primary objective for private land conservation organizations who typically have very limited resources. Ecosystem service valuation can also have a role in damage assessments from incidents that require compensation such as oil spills. Additionally, valuation can be very informative when investigating regulatory programs that trade ecological assets such as wetland mitigation programs. Typically these programs are based simply on an 'acre for acre' criterion, and do not take into consideration varying welfare values associated with that ecosystem. Lastly, and most fundamental, ecosystem service valuation serves as a recognition tool for people of all backgrounds. Identifying and valuing ecosystem goods and services on rangelands brings to light the value these natural assets have to human welfare that often remain hidden do to their public and non-market attributes. This type of recognition is vital to the preservation of rangeland ecosystems in the future and the many ecological benefits they provide.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2021

Occurrence, fate, and transport of aerially applied herbicides to control invasive buffelgrass within Saguaro National Park Rincon Mountain District, Arizona, 2015–18

The spread of the invasive and fire-adapted buffelgrass ( Cenchrus ciliaris L.) threatens desert ecosystems by competing for resources, increasing fuel loads, and creating wildfire connectivity. The Rincon Mountain District of Saguaro National Park addressed this natural resource threat with the use of glyphosate-based herbicides (GBHs). In 2010, the Rincon Mountain District initiated an aerial restoration plan to control dense buffelgrass patches in remote areas and implemented a trial project to evaluate the effects of aerial restoration techniques that included the helicopter application of GBHs. In 2014, more than 250 acres of buffelgrass in the Rincon Mountain District were treated with the aerial application of GBHs. This widespread aerial application of GBHs continued through 2018, but the potential transport and effects to aquatic ecosystems were unknown. In 2015–18, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, studied the occurrence, distribution, fate, and transport of glyphosate in surface water and sediments derived from areas that were treated during past and current aerial herbicide applications. Three watersheds, treated with different regimens of GBHs, were sampled for glyphosate and the primary metabolite of glyphosate, aminomethylphosphonic acid (AMPA), during various hydrologic flow conditions. Water and aquatic sediment were collected from three watersheds, each in a different stage of application during the U.S. Geological Survey study. The unnamed watershed above the Loma Verde Trailhead referred to by the National Park Service as “Loma Verde canyon” had received no aerial treatment since 2014, whereas the Box Canyon watershed was aerially treated every year beginning in 2014. The Madrona Canyon watershed was first sprayed in 2016 and aerial application continued once a year though the entirety of the study. In addition, terrestrial soil samples were sampled from areas sprayed to understand dissipation rates and herbicide transport via sediments washing away during rainfall runoff. The concentrations present in water and sediment samples were compared to ecological benchmarks and characterized within the context of the environmental conditions of the park setting. Of the 48 water samples collected and analyzed for glyphosate and AMPA, 10.4 percent and 14.6 percent were detected above the laboratory minimum detection limit, respectively. Mean water concentrations, calculated using specific statistical methods for non-detects, were equal to the laboratory minimum detection limit of 0.02 microgram per liter for samples collected in all the watersheds. In aquatic sediments, glyphosate and AMPA were detected in 10.7 and 25.0 percent of the samples, whereas 89.5 and 100 percent of the terrestrial soil samples had detections for glyphosate and AMPA, respectively. Mean aquatic sediment concentrations were 1.13 and 4.42 micrograms per kilogram (μg/kg) for glyphosate and AMPA, respectively. Mean terrestrial soil concentrations were orders of magnitude greater than water and aquatic sediment with concentrations of 678 μg/kg for AMPA and 1,240 μg/kg for glyphosate. Hours after glyphosate-based herbicide was applied, the concentrations of glyphosate and AMPA were present in terrestrial soil samples near or above the laboratory maximum detection limit of 5,000 μg/kg. The Box Canyon watershed was the most intensively treated watershed in terms of total land area treated, total amount of GBH applied, and number of years treated. The frequent and large volume of treatment resulted in the highest number of detections of glyphosate and AMPA in water (3 and 7 detections, respectively) and in aquatic sediment (2 and 6 detections, respectively) samples. In comparison, the other two watersheds had two or fewer detections for glyphosate and AMPA in water and aquatic sediment. Glyphosate detected in pools was associated with increased rainfall closer in time to the last herbicide treatment. Glyphosate and AMPA concentration ratios above one, along with stable-isotope and tritium results, indicated that runoff processes were the primary transport mechanism for the two compounds when found in streams and pools rather than subsurface recharge or deeper flow paths. One pool in a small tributary of Box Canyon consistently had detections of glyphosate and AMPA in aquatic sediments, but these frequent concentrations were likely related to the intensive application upstream, near the steep terrain above the head of the channel that supplies the downstream pool. Intense flows during summer rainfall events move treated sediments into this channel where vegetation and the incised bedrock banks of the pool retained those sediments and ultimately led to frequent detections of both compounds. Isotope results in most of the pools and tinajas indicated that the water source had residence time representative of recently recharged waters, on the order of years. No water concentrations exceeded published criteria for human health or aquatic life. Median and maximum glyphosate and AMPA water concentrations were lower than those reported in other national assessments, but maximum concentrations observed in individual runoff samples were higher than median concentrations measured in the national assessments. A similar finding was observed with aquatic sediment concentrations measured in the Rincon Mountain District. Results from the study were compared and assessed in the context of other studies examining GBHs and their effects on amphibians, fish, and macroinvertebrates. This comparison was used to generalize the potential risk to aquatic species similar to those species in the Rincon Mountain District. Concentrations of published effect levels were several orders of magnitude greater than the highest concentration detected in water at the Rincon Mountain District. Most published studies evaluate acute and chronic toxicity for glyphosate and GBHs, and these criteria may not be representative of environmental conditions in the Rincon Mountain District. The classic lethal dose studies conducted in a controlled laboratory setting may not be suitable for comparison to the longer, variable, low-dose exposure conditions in the pools and tinajas in the Rincon Mountain District. However, this study determined that the fate of GBHs transported from treated areas to potential aquatic habitat was highly variable in occurrence, timing, and concentrations. This variability in glyphosate concentrations was too high, and the potential exposure was determined to be far too complex to directly compare with the results from controlled studies. This study provides the first information collected on GBHs used to control invasive buffelgrass in a remote, mountainous, and semiarid setting. The information about the transport and fate of herbicide application near aquatic habitat will help to inform managers about the broader ecosystem implications and provide useful information to other agencies implementing buffelgrass remediation strategies near aquatic habitat.

Arizona↗