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At least 127 records · Page 7Linked to original sources

Stability of streams and lakes on Mars

Under present climatic conditions streams and lakes on Mars will freeze. Freezing is slow and would have a negligible effect in impeding flow of the large floods that are believed to have eroded the outflow channels. Valley networks are more difficult to form under current climatic conditions since they appear to have formed by slow erosion by streams of modest discharges. Freezing of small Martian streams was modeled for a variety of climatic conditions on the supposition that the Martian atmosphere may have been considerably thicker in the past when the valley networks formed. The modeling involves examination of the energy balance at the upper and lower surfaces of ice on streams to determine the rate at which the ice thickens with time. The results indicate that freezing rates are not strongly dependent on atmospheric pressure. With no wind, increasing the pressure by a factor of 10 cuts the time taken to freeze solid only by about a factor of about 2. Under windy conditions dependence on atmospheric pressure is even weaker. The distance that water could travel in a stream before flow is arrested by freezing is also calculated. The distances depend on the initial temperature of the stream and when icings develop, but in general, if a stream deeper than 2 m can be initiated and sustained, the water within it can survive long enough to cut most of the valley networks observed. The main problem with forming the valley is initiating the flow. Groundwater seepage alone appears inadequate because of the difficulty of recharging the groundwater system. Melting of ice precipitated onto the surface following injection of water into the atmosphere by large impacts is a possible source of water, but the climatic conditions under which the ice could melt and the water be collected into streams that can survive long enough to cut the valley is uncertain.

Icarus↗

Integration of seismic-reflection and well data to assess the potential impact of stratigraphic and structural features on sustainable water supply from the Floridan aquifer system, Broward County, Florida

The U.S. Geological Survey and Broward County water managers commenced a 3.5-year cooperative study in July 2012 to refine the geologic and hydrogeologic framework of the Floridan aquifer system (FAS) in Broward County. A lack of advanced stratigraphic knowledge of the physical system and structural geologic anomalies (faults and fractures originating from tectonics and karst-collapse structures) within the FAS pose a risk to the sustainable management of the resource. The principal objective of the study is to better define the regional stratigraphic and structural setting of the FAS in Broward County. The objective will be achieved through the acquisition, processing, and interpretation of new seismic-reflection data along several canals in Broward County. The interpretation includes integration of the new seismic-reflection data with existing seismic-reflection profiles along Hillsboro Canal in Broward County and within northeast Miami-Dade County, as well as with data from nearby FAS wellbores. The scope of the study includes mapping the geologic, hydrogeologic, and seismic-reflection framework of the FAS, and identifying stratigraphic and structural characteristics that could either facilitate or preclude the sustainable use of the FAS as an alternate water supply or a treated effluent repository. In addition, the investigation offers an opportunity to: (1) improve existing groundwater flow models, (2) enhance the understanding of the sensitivity of the groundwater system to well-field development and upconing of saline fluids, and (3) support site selection for future FAS projects, such as Class I wells that would inject treated effluent into the deep Boulder Zone.

Florida↗

Hydrologic model of the Modesto Region, California, 1960-2004

Strategies for managing water supplies and groundwater quality in the Modesto region of the eastern San Joaquin Valley, California, are being formulated and evaluated by the Stanislaus and Tuolumne Rivers Groundwater Basin Association. Management issues and goals in the basin include an area in the lower part of the basin that requires drainage of the shallow water table to sustain agriculture, intra- and inter-basin migration of poor-quality groundwater, and efficient management of surface and groundwater supplies. To aid in the evaluation of water-management strategies, the U.S. Geological Survey and the Stanislaus and Tuolumne Rivers Groundwater Basin Association have developed a hydrologic model that simulates monthly groundwater and surface-water flow as governed by aquifer-system properties, annual and seasonal variations in climate, surface-water flow and availability, water use, and land use. The model was constructed by using the U.S. Geological Survey groundwater-modeling software MODFLOW-OWHM with the Farm Process. Available measurements of groundwater pumped for municipal, irrigation, and drainage purposes are specified in the model, as are deliveries of surface water. Private irrigation pumping and recharge associated with agricultural land use were estimated by using the Farm Process in MODFLOW-OWHM, which simulates landscape processes associated with irrigated agriculture and other land uses. The distribution of hydraulic conductivity in the aquifer system was constrained by using data from more than 3,500 drillers' logs. The model was calibrated to 4,061 measured groundwater levels in 109 wells and 2,739 mean monthly surface-water flows measured at 6 streamgages during 1960-2004 by using a semi-automated method of parameter estimation. The model fit to groundwater levels was good, with an absolute mean residual of 0.8 feet; 74 percent of simulated heads were within 10 feet of those observed. The model fit to streamflow was biased low, but reasonable overall; the absolute mean residual of streamflow was 780 cubic feet per second, and 68 percent of simulated streamflows were within 500 cubic feet per second of observed. Hydrographs both of groundwater levels and streamflow indicated overall an acceptable fit to observed trends. Simulated private agricultural pumpage ranged from about 780,000 to 1,380,000 acre-feet per year and averaged about 1,000,000 acre-feet per year from 1960 to 2004. Simulated deep percolation, or groundwater recharge from precipitation and irrigation, varied with climate and land use from about 1,100,000 to 1,700,000 acre-feet per year, averaging 1,360,000 acre-feet per year. Key limitations of the model with respect to estimating these large components of the water budget are the uncertainty associated with actual irrigation deliveries and irrigation efficiencies and the lack of metered data for private agricultural groundwater pumping. Different assumptions with respect to irrigation deliveries and efficiencies, and other model input, would result in different estimates of private agricultural groundwater use. The simulated exchange between groundwater and surface water was a small percentage of streamflow, typically ranging within a loss or gain of about 2 cubic feet per second per mile. The simulated exchange compared reasonably with limited independent estimates available, but substantial uncertainty is associated with these estimates.

California↗

Tree growth and recruitment in a leveed floodplain forest in the Mississippi River Alluvial Valley, USA

Flooding is a defining disturbance in floodplain forests affecting seed germination, seedling establishment, and tree growth. Globally, flood control, including artificial levees, dams, and channelization has altered flood regimes in floodplains. However, a paucity of data are available in regards to the long-term effects of levees on stand establishment and tree growth in floodplain forests. In this study, we used dendrochronological techniques to reconstruct tree recruitment and tree growth over a 90-year period at three stands within a ring levee in the Mississippi River Alluvial Valley (MAV) and to evaluate whether recruitment patterns and tree growth changed following levee construction. We hypothesized that: (1) sugarberry is increasing in dominance and overcup oak ( Quercus lyrata ) is becoming less dominant since the levee, and that changes in hydrology are playing a greater role than canopy disturbance in these changes in species dominance; and (2) that overcup oak growth has declined following construction of the levee and cessation of overbank flooding whereas that of sugarberry has increased. Recruitment patterns shifted from flood-tolerant overcup oak to flood-intolerant sugarberry ( Celtis laevigata ) after levee construction. None of the 122 sugarberry trees cored in this study established prior to the levee, but it was the most common species established after the levee. The mechanisms behind the compositional change are unknown, however, the cosmopolitan distribution of overcup oak during the pre-levee period and sugarberry during the post-levee period, the lack of sugarberry establishment in the pre-levee period, and the confinement of overcup oak regeneration to the lowest areas in each stand after harvest in the post-levee period indicate that species-specific responses to flooding and light availability are forcing recruitment patterns. Overcup oak growth was also affected by levee construction, but in contrast to our hypothesis, growth actually increased for several decades before declining during a drought in the late 1990s. We interpret this result as removal of flood stress following levee construction. This finding emphasizes the fact that flooding can be stressful to trees regardless of their flood tolerance and that growth in floodplain trees can be sustained provided adequate soil moisture is present, regardless of the source of soil moisture. However, future research efforts should focus on the long-term effect of hydrologic modification on stand development and on how hydrologic modifications, such as elimination of surface flooding and groundwater declines, affect the vulnerability of floodplain forests to drought.

Forest Ecology and Management↗

A multiphased approach to groundwater investigations for the Edwards-Trinity and related aquifers in the Pecos County region, Texas

The Edwards-Trinity aquifer is a vital groundwater resource for agricultural, industrial, and public supply uses in the Pecos County region of western Texas. Resource managers would like to understand the future availability of water in the Edwards-Trinity aquifer in the Pecos County region and the effects of the possible increase or temporal redistribution of groundwater withdrawals. To provide resource managers with that information, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Middle Pecos Groundwater Conservation District, Pecos County, City of Fort Stockton, Brewster County, and Pecos County Water Control and Improvement District No. 1, completed a three-phase study of the Edwards-Trinity and related aquifers in parts of Brewster, Jeff Davis, Pecos, and Reeves Counties. The first phase was to collect groundwater, surface-water, geochemical, geophysical, and geologic data in the study area and develop a geodatabase of historical and collected data. Data compiled in the first phase of the study were used to develop the conceptual model in the second phase of the study. The third phase of the study involved the development and calibration of a numerical groundwater-flow model of the Edwards-Trinity aquifer to simulate groundwater conditions based on various groundwater-withdrawal scenarios. Analysis of well, geophysical, geochemical, and hydrologic data contributed to the development of the conceptual model in phase 1. Lithologic information obtained from well reports and geophysical data was used to describe the hydrostratigraphy and structural features of the groundwater-flow system, and aquifer-test data were used to estimate aquifer hydraulic properties. Geochemical data were used to evaluate groundwater-flow paths, water-rock interaction, aquifer interaction, and the mixing of water from different sources in phase 2. Groundwater-level data also were used to evaluate aquifer interaction, as well as to develop a potentiometric-surface map, delineate regional groundwater divides, and describe regional groundwater-flow paths. During phase 3, the data collected and compiled along with the conceptual information in the study area were incorporated into a numerical groundwater-flow model to evaluate the sustainability of recent (2008) and projected water-use demands on groundwater resources in the study area.

Texas↗

Water resources of the upper White River basin, east-central Indiana

Ground-water discharge to the streams sustains year-round streamflow in the upper White River basin. This discharge, referred to as ground-water runoff or base runoff, is considered to be an index to the amount of g ound water available for development. A comparison of the variations of groundwater runoff and aquifer distribution in the basin shows that the areas of best development potential are areas where thick sand and gravel aquifers are adjacent to the streams. The average ground-water runoff for these areas is between 400,000 and 500,000 gallons per day per square mile. The most permeable aquifers in the basin are the sand and gravel deposits of Quaternary age. These aquifers occur mainly as relatively thick elongate bodies along bedrock valleys and as relatively thin sheetlike deposits at or near land surface. The representative hydraulic conductivity of these aquifers ranges from 1,500 to 2,500 gallons per day per square foot. The limestone and dolomite formations of the bedrock are a source of moderate quar tities of water. The long-term average streamflow in the basin is approximately 0.9 cubic feet per second per square mile. The yearly average discharge varies from about one-fourth to twice the long-term average. The 7-day 10-year low flow ranges from about 0.01 to 0.3 cubic feet per second per square mile; the main-stem flow ranges from 0.10 to 0.13 cubic feet per second per square mile. The water in the aquifers is predominately a very hard calcium bicarbonate type; it is generally high in iron and contains a moderate amount of dissolved solids. Fresh water (1,000 milligrams per liter dissolved solids or less) is present to depths of approximately 400 feet below land surface. In the tributaries and in the headwaters region of the White River, the composition of surface water is very similar to that of ground water. The quality cf the water in the White River deteriorates in the downstream direction owing to the cumulative effects of sewage effluent.

Indiana↗

Water-balance modeling of selected lakes for evaluating viability as long-term fisheries in Kidder, Logan, and Stutsman Counties, North Dakota

Water levels in lakes and wetlands in the central North Dakota Missouri Coteau region that were either dry or only sporadically held water since before the 1930s have been rising since the early 1990s in response to an extended wet period. The lakes have remained full since the mid-1990s, which has provided benefits to migratory waterfowl, fisheries, and wildlife. A small shift in climate conditions, either to drier or wetter conditions, can have a large effect on the lake levels of these water bodies. The North Dakota Game and Fish Department identified five lakes as candidates for sustaining long-term fisheries. The lakes are in Kidder, Stutsman, and Logan Counties, and some lakes might receive inflow from mostly freshwater aquifers, such as the Central Dakota and Streeter aquifers, and were mostly dry during the early 1990s. After about 1995, the lakes had filled up and were deep enough to sustain populations of game fish such as walleye, perch, and northern pike. Before investing in development of permanent fisheries and associated infrastructure, such as campgrounds and boat ramps, fisheries biologists needed to know if the lake levels are likely to remain high in coming decades. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Dakota Game and Fish Department, developed a water-balance model to determine the effects of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and groundwater interaction on lake volumes. The model was developed using climate input data and lake volumes for the calibration period 1992 through 2016, during which historical lake volumes could be estimated using land surface elevation data and Landsat images. Long-term (1940–2018) climate input data were used with the water-balance model to reconstruct historical lake volumes prior to the calibration period, and block-bootstrapping was used to simulate potential future climate input data and lake volumes for 2017 through 2067. The simulated future lake volumes were used to estimate the likelihood of annual lake volumes remaining consistent, increasing, or decreasing through the year 2067. Of the five lakes, Sibley Lake was the most likely to sustain a long-term fishery for a period longer than 50 years. The simulated lake volumes for Alkaline Lake, Big Mallard Marsh, and Remmick Lake indicated the lakes have a 50-percent chance to fall below 75 percent of their 2016 volume by about 2030, 2067, and 2025, respectively. Simulation results for Marvin Miller Lake were substantially different compared to the other four lakes and indicated the lake has a 50-percent chance to fall below 75 percent of its 2016 volume prior to 2025.

North Dakota↗

Groundwater availability in the United States: the value of quantitative regional assessments

The sustainability of water resources is under continued threat from the challenges associated with a growing population, competing demands, and a changing climate. Freshwater scarcity has become a fact in many areas. Much of the United States surface-water supplies are fully apportioned for use; thus, in some areas the only potential alternative freshwater source that can provide needed quantities is groundwater. Although frequently overlooked, groundwater serves as the principal reserve of freshwater in the US and represents much of the potential supply during periods of drought. Some nations have requirements to monitor and characterize the availability of groundwater such as the European Union’s Water Framework Directive (EPCEU 2000). In the US there is no such national requirement. Quantitative regional groundwater availability assessments, however, are essential to document the status and trends of groundwater availability for the US and make informed water-resource decisions possible now and in the future. Barthel (2014) highlighted that the value of regional groundwater assessments goes well beyond just quantifying the resource so that it can be better managed. The tools and techniques required to evaluate these unique regional systems advance the science of hydrogeology and provide enhanced methods that can benefit local-scale groundwater investigations. In addition, a significant, yet under-utilized benefit is the digital spatial and temporal data sets routinely generated as part of these studies. Even though there is no legal or regulatory requirement for regional groundwater assessments in the US, there is a logical basis for their implementation. The purpose of this essay is to articulate the rationale for and reaffirm the value of regional groundwater assessments primarily in the US; however, the arguments hold for all nations. The importance of the data sets and the methods and model development that occur as part of these assessments is stressed. These high-value data sets and models should be available in readily accessible formats for use today and in the future. Examples of advances in and accomplishments of two regional groundwater assessments are presented to demonstrate their function, relevance, and value for determining the sustainability of the groundwater resources of the US.

Hydrogeology Journal↗

Hydrogeology and simulation of groundwater flow and analysis of projected water use for the Canadian River alluvial aquifer, western and central Oklahoma

This report describes a study of the hydrogeology and simulation of groundwater flow for the Canadian River alluvial aquifer in western and central Oklahoma conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board. The report (1) quantifies the groundwater resources of the Canadian River alluvial aquifer by developing a conceptual model, (2) summarizes the general water quality of the Canadian River alluvial aquifer groundwater by using data collected during August and September 2013, (3) evaluates the effects of estimated equal proportionate share (EPS) on aquifer storage and streamflow for time periods of 20, 40, and 50 years into the future by using numerical groundwater-flow models, and (4) evaluates the effects of present-day groundwater pumping over a 50-year period and sustained hypothetical drought conditions over a 10-year period on stream base flow and groundwater in storage by using numerical flow models. The Canadian River alluvial aquifer is a Quaternary-age alluvial and terrace unit consisting of beds of clay, silt, sand, and fine gravel sediments unconformably overlying Tertiary-, Permian-, and Pennsylvanian-age sedimentary rocks. For groundwater-flow modeling purposes, the Canadian River was divided into Reach I, extending from the Texas border to the Canadian River at the Bridgeport, Okla., streamgage (07228500), and Reach II, extending downstream from the Canadian River at the Bridgeport, Okla., streamgage (07228500), to the confluence of the river with Eufaula Lake. The Canadian River alluvial aquifer spans multiple climate divisions, ranging from semiarid in the west to humid subtropical in the east. The average annual precipitation in the study area from 1896 to 2014 was 34.4 inches per year (in/yr). A hydrogeologic framework of the Canadian River alluvial aquifer was developed that includes the areal and vertical extent of the aquifer and the distribution, texture variability, and hydraulic properties of aquifer materials. The aquifer areal extent ranged from less than 0.2 to 8.5 miles wide. The maximum aquifer thickness was 120 feet (ft), and the average aquifer thickness was 50 ft. Average horizontal hydraulic conductivity for the Canadian River alluvial aquifer was calculated to be 39 feet per day, and the maximum horizontal hydraulic conductivity was calculated to be 100 feet per day. Recharge rates to the Canadian River alluvial aquifer were estimated by using a soil-water-balance code to estimate the spatial distribution of groundwater recharge and a water-table fluctuation method to estimate localized recharge rates. By using daily precipitation and temperature data from 39 climate stations, recharge was estimated to average 3.4 in/yr, which corresponds to 8.7 percent of precipitation as recharge for the Canadian River alluvial aquifer from 1981 to 2013. The water-table fluctuation method was used at one site where continuous water-level observation data were available to estimate the percentage of precipitation that becomes groundwater recharge. Estimated annual recharge at that site was 9.7 in/yr during 2014. Groundwater flow in the Canadian River alluvial aquifer was identified and quantified by a conceptual flow model for the period 1981–2013. Inflows to the Canadian River alluvial aquifer include recharge to the water table from precipitation, lateral flow from the surrounding bedrock, and flow from the Canadian River, whereas outflows include flow to the Canadian River (base-flow gain), evapotranspiration, and groundwater use. Total annual recharge inflows estimated by the soil-water-balance code were multiplied by the area of each reach and then averaged over the simulated period to produce an annual average of 28,919 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) for Reach I and 82,006 acre-ft/yr for Reach II. Stream base flow to the Canadian River was estimated to be the largest outflow of groundwater from the aquifer, measured at four streamgages, along with evapotranspiration and groundwater use, which were relatively minor discharge components. Objectives for the numerical groundwater-flow models included simulating groundwater flow in the Canadian River alluvial aquifer from 1981 to 2013 to address groundwater use and drought scenarios, including calculation of the EPS pumping rates. The EPS for the alluvial and terrace aquifers is defined by the Oklahoma Water Resources Board as the amount of fresh water that each landowner is allowed per year per acre of owned land to maintain a saturated thickness of at least 5 ft in at least 50 percent of the overlying land of the groundwater basin for a minimum of 20 years. The groundwater-flow models were calibrated to water-table altitude observations, streamgage base flows, and base-flow gain to the Canadian River. The Reach I water-table altitude observation root-mean-square error was 6.1 ft, and 75 percent of residuals were within ±6.7 ft of observed measurements. The average simulated stream base-flow residual at the Bridgeport streamgage (07228500) was 8.8 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s), and 75 percent of residuals were within ±30 ft 3 /s of observed measurements. Simulated base-flow gain in Reach I was 8.8 ft 3 /s lower than estimated base-flow gain. The Reach II water-table altitude observation root-mean-square error was 4 ft, and 75 percent of residuals were within ±4.3 ft of the observations. The average simulated stream base-flow residual in Reach II was between 35 and 132 ft 3 /s. The average simulated base-flow gain residual in Reach II was between 11.3 and 61.1 ft 3 /s. Several future predictive scenarios were run, including estimating the EPS pumping rate for 20-, 40-, and 50-year life of basin scenarios, determining the effects of current groundwater use over a 50-year period into the future, and evaluating the effects of a sustained drought on water availability for both reaches. The EPS pumping rate was determined to be 1.35 acre-feet per acre per year ([acre-ft/acre]/yr) in Reach I and 3.08 (acre-ft/acre)/yr in Reach II for a 20-year period. For the 40- and 50-year periods, the EPS rate was determined to be 1.34 (acre-ft/acre)/yr in Reach I and 3.08 (acre-ft/acre)/yr in Reach II. Storage changes decreased in tandem with simulated groundwater pumping and were minimal after the first 15 simulated years for Reach I and the first 8 simulated years for Reach II. Groundwater pumping at year 2013 rates for a period of 50 years resulted in a 0.2-percent decrease in groundwater-storage volumes in Reach I and a 0.6-percent decrease in the groundwater-storage volumes in Reach II. The small changes in storage are due to groundwater use by pumping, which composes a small percentage of the total groundwater-flow model budgets for Reaches I and II. A sustained drought scenario was used to evaluate the effects of a hypothetical 10-year drought on water availability. A 10-year period was chosen where the effects of drought conditions would be simulated by decreasing recharge by 75 percent. In Reach I, average simulated stream base flow at the Bridgeport streamgage (07228500) decreased by 58 percent during the hypothetical 10-year drought compared to average simulated stream base flow during the nondrought period. In Reach II, average simulated stream base flows at the Purcell streamgage (07229200) and Calvin streamgage (07231500) decreased by 64 percent and 54 percent, respectively. In Reach I, the groundwater-storage drought scenario resulted in a storage decline of 30 thousand acre-feet, or an average decline in the water table of 1.2 ft. In Reach II, the groundwater-storage drought scenario resulted in a storage decline of 71 thousand acre-feet, or an average decline in the water table of 2.0 ft.

Oklahoma↗

Groundwater-flow and land-subsidence model of Antelope Valley, California

Antelope Valley, California, is a topographically closed basin in the western part of the Mojave Desert, about 50 miles northeast of Los Angeles. The Antelope Valley groundwater basin is about 940 square miles and is separated from the northern part of Antelope Valley by faults and low-lying hills. Prior to 1972, groundwater provided more than 90 percent of the total water supply in the valley; since 1972, it has provided between 50 and 90 percent. Most groundwater pumping in the valley occurs in the Antelope Valley groundwater basin, which includes the rapidly growing cities of Lancaster and Palmdale. Groundwater-level declines of more than 270 feet in some parts of the groundwater basin have resulted in an increase in pumping lifts, reduced well efficiency, and land subsidence of more than 6 feet in some areas. Future urban growth and limits on the supply of imported water may increase reliance on groundwater. In 2011, the Los Angeles County Superior Court of California ruled that the Antelope Valley groundwater basin is in overdraft—groundwater extractions are in excess of the Court-defined safe yield of the groundwater basin. The Court determined that the safe yield of the adjudicated area of the basin was 110,000 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr). Natural recharge is an important component of total groundwater recharge in Antelope Valley; however, the exact quantity and distribution of natural recharge, primarily in the form of mountain-front recharge, is uncertain, with total estimates ranging from 30,000 to 160,000 acre-ft/yr. Technical experts, retained by parties to the adjudication, used 60,000 acre-ft/yr to estimate the sustainable yield of the basin, and this value was used in this study. In order to better understand the uncertainty associated with natural recharge and to provide a tool to aid in groundwater management, a numerical model of groundwater flow and land subsidence in the Antelope Valley groundwater basin was developed using old and new geohydrologic information. The groundwater-flow system consists of three aquifers: the upper, middle, and lower aquifers. The three aquifers, which were identified on the basis of the hydrologic properties, age, and depth of the unconsolidated deposits, consist of gravel, sand, silt, and clay alluvial deposits and clay and silty clay lacustrine deposits. Prior to groundwater development in the valley, recharge was primarily the infiltration of runoff from the surrounding mountains. Groundwater flowed from the recharge areas to discharge areas around the playas where it discharged from the aquifer system as either evapotranspiration or from springs. Partial barriers to horizontal groundwater flow, such as faults, have been identified in the groundwater basin. Water-level declines owing to groundwater development have eliminated the natural sources of discharge, and pumping for agricultural and urban uses have become the primary source of discharge from the groundwater system. Infiltration of return flow from agricultural irrigation has become an important source of recharge to the aquifer system. The groundwater-flow model of the basin was discretized horizontally into a grid of 130 rows and 118 columns of square cells 1 kilometer (0.621 mile) on a side, and vertically into four layers representing the upper (two layers), middle (one layer), and lower (one layer) aquifers. Faults that were thought to act as horizontal-flow barriers were simulated in the model. The model was calibrated to simulate steady-state conditions, represented by 1915 water levels and transient-state conditions during 1915–95, by using water-level and subsidence data. Initial estimates of the aquifer-system properties and stresses were obtained from a previously published numerical model of the Antelope Valley groundwater basin; estimates also were obtained from recently collected hydrologic data and from results of simulations of groundwater-flow and land-subsidence models of the Edwards Air Force Base area. Some of these initial estimates were modified during model calibration. Groundwater pumpage for agriculture was estimated on the basis of irrigated crop acreage and crop consumptive-use data. Pumpage for public supply, which is metered, was compiled and entered into a database used for this study. Estimated annual agricultural pumpage peaked at 395,000 acre-feet (acre-ft) in 1951 and then declined because of declining agricultural production. Recharge from irrigation return flows was assumed to be 30 percent of agricultural pumpage; delays associated with return flow moving through the unsaturated zone were also simulated. The annual quantity of mountain-front recharge initially was based on estimates from previous studies. The model was calibrated using the PEST software suite; prior information from the area was incorporated through the use of Tikhonov regularization. During model calibration, the estimated mountain-front recharge was reduced from the previous estimate of 30,300 acre-ft/yr to 29,150 acre-ft/yr. Results of the simulations using the calibrated model indicate that simulated groundwater pumpage exceeded recharge in most years, resulting in an estimated cumulative depletion in groundwater storage of 8,700,000 acre-ft during the transient-simulation period (1915–2005). About 15,000,000 acre-ft of cumulative groundwater pumpage was simulated during the transient-simulation period (1915–2005), reaching a maximum rate of about 400,000 acre-ft/yr in 1951. Groundwater pumpage resulted in simulated hydraulic heads declining by more than 150 feet (ft) compared to 1915 conditions in agricultural areas. The decline in hydraulic head in the groundwater basin is the result of this depletion of groundwater storage. In turn, the simulated decline in hydraulic head in the groundwater basin has resulted in the decrease in natural discharge from the basin and has caused compaction of aquitards, resulting in land subsidence. The areal distribution of total simulated land subsidence for 2005, after about 90 years of groundwater development, indicates that land subsidence occurred throughout almost the entire Lancaster subbasin, with a maximum of about 9.4 ft in the central and eastern parts of the subbasin. An important objective of this study was to systematically address the uncertainty in estimates of natural recharge and related aquifer parameters by using the groundwater-flow and land-subsidence model with observational data and expert knowledge. After the model was calibrated to the observations and a reasonable parameter set obtained, the parameter null space—parameter values that do not appreciably affect the model calibration but may have importance for prediction—was identified. The effect of parameter uncertainty on the estimation of mountain-front recharge was addressed using the Null-Space Monte Carlo method. The Pareto trade-off method of visualizing uncertainty was also used to portray the reasonableness of larger natural-recharge rates. Results indicate that the total mountain-front recharge likely ranges between 28,000 and 44,000 acre-ft/yr, which is appreciably less than published estimates of 60,000 acre-ft/yr. Additionally, expected errors associated with agricultural pumpage estimates used in this study were found to have relatively little effect on the estimates of mountain-front recharge, reflecting the difficulty in increasing recharge through manipulation of other components of the water budget. The calibrated model was used to simulate the response of the aquifer to potential future pumping scenarios: (1) no change in the distribution of pumpage, or status quo; (2) redistribution of pumpage; and (3) artificial recharge. All three of these scenarios specify a total pumpage throughout the Antelope Valley of 110,000 acre-ft/yr according to the safe yield value ruled by the Los Angeles County Superior Court of California. This reduction in groundwater pumpage is assumed uniform throughout the basin, based on a 10-percent reduction of the total pumpage in 2005 to achieve the 110,000 acre-ft/yr level. The calibrated Antelope Valley groundwater-flow and land-subsidence model was used to simulate the hydrologic effects of the three groundwater-management scenarios during a 50-year period by using the reduced, temporally constant, pumpage distribution. Results from the first scenario indicated that the total drawdown observed since predevelopment would continue, with values exceeding 325 ft near Palmdale; consequently, land subsidence would also continue, with additional subsidence (since 2005) exceeding 3 ft in the central part of the Lancaster subbasin. The second scenario evaluated redistributing pumpage from areas in the Lancaster subbasin where simulated hydraulic-head declines were the greatest to areas where declines were smallest. Neither a formal optimization algorithm nor water-rights allocations were considered when redistributing the pumpage. Results indicated that hydraulic heads near Palmdale, where the pumpage was reduced, would recover by about 200 ft compared to 2005 conditions, with only 30 ft of additional drawdown in the northwestern part of the Lancaster subbasin, where the pumpage was increased. The magnitude of the simulated additional land subsidence decreased slightly compared to the first, status quo, scenario but land subsidence continued to be simulated throughout most of the northern part of the Lancaster subbasin. The third scenario consisted of two artificial-recharge simulations along the Upper Amargosa Creek channel and at a site located north of Antelope Buttes. Results indicate that applying artificial recharge at these sites would yield continued drawdowns and associated land subsidence. However, the magnitudes of drawdown and subsidence would be smaller than those simulated in the status quo scenario, indicating that artificial-recharge operations in the Antelope Valley could be expected to reduce the magnitude and extent of continued water-level declines and associated land subsidence.

California↗

Hydrogeologic framework and characterization of the Truxton Aquifer on the Hualapai Reservation, Mohave County, Arizona

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, developed this study to determine an estimate of groundwater in storage in the Truxton aquifer on the Hualapai Reservation in northwestern Arizona. For this study, the Truxton aquifer is defined as the unconfined, saturated groundwater in the unconsolidated to semiconsolidated older and younger basin-fill deposits of the Truxton basin overlying bedrock. The physical characteristics of the Truxton aquifer have not been well characterized in the past. In particular, the depth to impermeable granite bedrock and thickness of the basin are known in only a few locations where water wells have penetrated into the granite. Increasing water demands on the Truxton aquifer by both tribal and nontribal water users have led to concern about the long-term sustainability of this water resource. The Hualapai Tribe currently projects an increase of their water needs from about 300 acre-feet (acre-ft) per year to about 780 acre-ft per year by 2050 to support the community of Peach Springs, Arizona, and the southern part of the reservation. This study aimed to quantitatively develop better knowledge of aquifer characteristics, including aquifer storage and capacity, using (1) surface resistivity data collected along transects and (2) analysis of existing geologic, borehole, precipitation, water use, and water-level data. The surface resistivity surveys indicated that the depth to granite along the survey lines varied from less than 100 feet (ft) to more than 1,300 ft below land surface on the Hualapai Reservation. The top of the granite bedrock is consistent with the erosional character of the Truxton basin and exhibits deep paleochannels filled with basin-fill deposits consistent with the results of surface resistivity surveys and borehole logs from wells. The estimated average saturated thickness of the Truxton aquifer on the Hualapai Reservation is about 330 ft (with an estimated range of 260 to 390 ft), based on both resistivity results and the depth to water in wells. The saturated thickness might be greater in parts of the Truxton aquifer where paleochannels are incised into the granite underlying the basin-fill sediments. The estimated groundwater storage of the Truxton aquifer on the Hualapai Reservation ranges from 420,000 to 940,000 acre-ft and does not include groundwater storage in the aquifer outside the Hualapai Reservation boundary. In addition, the calculation of total storage in the Truxton aquifer does not determine nor indicate the availability and sustainability of that groundwater as a long-term resource. These results compared well with studies done on alluvial-basin aquifers in areas adjacent to this study. The part of the Truxton aquifer on the Hualapai Reservation represents about 20 percent of the entire aquifer.

Arizona↗

The Connecticut Streamflow and Sustainable Water Use Estimator—A decision-support tool to estimate water availability at ungaged stream locations in Connecticut

Freshwater streams in Connecticut are subject to many competing demands, including public water supply; agricultural, commercial, and industrial water use; and ecosystem and habitat needs. In recent years, drought has further stressed Connecticut’s water resources. To sustainably allocate and manage water resources among these competing uses, Federal, State, and local water-resource managers require data and modeling tools to estimate the water availability at a variety of temporal and spatial scales for planning purposes. The Connecticut Streamflow and Sustainable Water Use Estimator (CT SSWUE), developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection, is a decision-support tool for estimating daily unaltered streamflow and sustainable water use at ungaged sites in Connecticut. The CT SSWUE estimates unaltered daily mean streamflow and water-use-adjusted streamflow for the period from October 1, 1960, to September 30, 2015, and the monthly sustainable net withdrawal at ungaged sites in Connecticut. Unaltered streamflow is the estimated daily mean streamflow in a drainage basin in the absence of any water withdrawals or wastewater discharges and with minimal human development. Sustainable net withdrawal is the maximum net withdrawal (withdrawal minus wastewater discharges) that can be drawn from a basin without critically depleting the water available through natural streamflow patterns. Sustainable net withdrawal is defined for this study as the difference between the unaltered daily mean streamflow and a user-defined target minimum streamflow. Weighted least squares and Tobit regression techniques were used to develop equations for estimating streamflow at ungaged sites at 19 streamflow quantiles with exceedance probabilities ranging from 0.005 to 99.995 percent. Regressions were based on streamflow quantiles and basin characteristics from 36 reference streamgages in and around Connecticut. Four basin characteristics—drainage area, mean of the soil permeability, mean of the average annual precipitation, and ratio of the length of streams that overlay sand and gravel deposits to the total length of streams in the basin—are used as explanatory variables in the equations. At an ungaged site, interpolation between the streamflow quantiles estimated from the regression equations produces a continuous flow-duration curve. A time series of daily mean streamflow at an ungaged site is then estimated by assuming that for each day, the streamflow quantile occurs on the same date at both a reference streamgage and the ungaged site. In a remove-one cross validation, estimated unaltered daily mean streamflow agreed well with observed values at reference streamgages, with a few exceptions. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from −0.43 to 0.97 with a median value of 0.88. The normalized root-mean-square error ranged from 16.6 to 120.4 percent with a median value of 34.5 percent. An empirical method for estimating 95-percent prediction intervals for unaltered daily and monthly mean streamflow was developed and tested by using the cross-validation data. Prediction intervals for unaltered daily mean streamflow at the cross-validation reference streamgages performed well in most cases. Gaged streamflow values from the cross-validation data fell within the prediction intervals a median 96.6 percent of the time for daily mean time series and 93.9 percent of the time for monthly mean time series. The CT SSWUE computes water-use-adjusted streamflow using spatially referenced water-use information provided by the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection. Available water-use information included permitted and registered water withdrawals and permitted wastewater discharges during 1998 to 2015 for the Thames River Basin and central coastal drainage basins. Water-use information was incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats web application for Connecticut and can be used for computing water-use-adjusted streamflow and sustainable net withdrawal at selected points of interest. Altered daily streamflow is computed by applying average daily withdrawals and wastewater discharges to the water balance equation. Average daily surface water withdrawals and wastewater discharges are applied directly to the daily water balance equation. Time-lagged alterations on streamflow from groundwater withdrawals or wastewater discharges are estimated by using a response-coefficient method developed from results of previously published, calibrated groundwater models.

Connecticut↗

Magnetotelluric and audiomagnetotelluric groundwater survey along the Humu'ula portion of Saddle Road near and around the Pohakuloa Training Area, Hawaii

The Pohakuloa Training Area (PTA), operated by the U.S. Army on the Big Island of Hawaii, is in need of a reliable potable water supply to sustain ongoing operations by staff and trainees. In an effort to acquire baseline hydrologic data with which to develop a plan for providing that water, a series of magnetotelluric (MT) geophysical surveys was performed that spanned the Mauna Loa/Mauna Kea Saddle region of Hawaii Island. These surveys provided electrical resistivity profiles and resistivity maps at several elevations along the axis of the field measurements that can be interpreted to yield information on the depth to the water table. In 2004 a preliminary sequence of 23 audiomagnetotelluric (AMT) soundings was collected along Saddle Road extending from the Waikii Ranch area, west of the PTA, to Department of Hawaiian Home Lands Humu'ula properties east of the Mauna Kea access road. The results of those soundings showed that highly resistive rocks, consistent with dry basalts, were present to depths of at least one kilometer, the maximum depth to which the AMT technique can reliably reach in Hawaii's rocks. A second survey was conducted in 2008 using MT instruments capable of recovering resistivity data to depths of several kilometers below sea level where saturated formations are known to exist. A total of 30 MT soundings was performed along a roughly east to west transect that extended from the (recently acquired) Keamuku PTA lands on the west to as far as the County of Hawaii's upper Kaumana water supply well to the east. Inversion and processing of the field data yielded an electrical cross-section following the Saddle that roughly parallels the geologic contact between the Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa lavas. Several additional electrical sections were constructed normal to the main transect to investigate the three-dimensional nature of the contact. These resistivity data and models suggest that the elevation of saturated rock in places are 400 to 600 meters above mean sea level beneath the surveyed region. Highest elevations for water-saturated zones based upon preferred electrical models are located between training area 3 and training area 6 southwest of training area 4.

Hawai'i↗

Managed aquifer recharge through off-season irrigation in agricultural regions

Options for increasing reservoir storage in developed regions are limited and prohibitively expensive. Projected increases in demand call for new long-term water storage to help sustain agriculture, municipalities, industry, and ecological services. Managed aquifer recharge (MAR) is becoming an integral component of water resources around the world. However, MAR faces challenges, including infrastructure costs, difficulty in enhancing recharge, water quality issues, and lack of available water supplies. Here we examine, through simulation modeling of a hypothetical agricultural subbasin in the western U.S., the potential of agricultural managed aquifer recharge (Ag-MAR) via canal seepage and off-season field irrigation. Weather phenomenon in many regions around the world exhibit decadal and other multiyear cycles of extreme precipitation. An ongoing challenge is to develop approaches to store greater amounts of water during these events. Simulations presented herein incorporate Ag-MAR programs and demonstrate that there is potential to enhance regional recharge by 7–13%, increase crop consumptive use by 9–12%, and increase natural vegetation consumption by 20–30%, where larger relative increases occur for lower aquifer hydraulic conductivity and higher specific yield values. Annual increases in groundwater levels were 7 m, and sustained levels following several years of drought were greater than 2 m. Results demonstrate that Ag-MAR has great potential to enhance long-term sustainability of water resources in agricultural basins.

Water Resources Research↗

The Maryland Coastal Plain Aquifer Information System: A GIS-based tool for assessing groundwater resources

Groundwater is the source of drinking water for ∼1.4 million people in the Coastal Plain Province of Maryland (USA). In addition, groundwater is essential for commercial, industrial, and agricultural uses. Approximately 0.757 × 109 L d –1 (200 million gallons/d) were withdrawn in 2010. As a result of decades of withdrawals from the coastal plain confined aquifers, groundwater levels have declined by as much as 70 m (230 ft) from estimated prepumping levels. Other issues posing challenges to long-term groundwater sustainability include degraded water quality from both man-made and natural sources, reduced stream base flow, land subsidence, and changing recharge patterns (drought) caused by climate change. In Maryland, groundwater supply is managed primarily by the Maryland Department of the Environment, which seeks to balance reasonable use of the resource with long-term sustainability. The chief goal of groundwater management in Maryland is to ensure safe and adequate supplies for all current and future users through the implementation of appropriate usage, planning, and conservation policies. To assist in that effort, the geographic information system (GIS)–based Maryland Coastal Plain Aquifer Information System was developed as a tool to help water managers access and visualize groundwater data for use in the evaluation of groundwater allocation and use permits. The system, contained within an ESRI ArcMap desktop environment, includes both interpreted and basic data for 16 aquifers and 14 confining units. Data map layers include aquifer and ­confining unit layer surfaces, aquifer extents, borehole information, hydraulic properties, time-series groundwater-level data, well records, and geophysical and lithologic logs. The aquifer and confining unit layer surfaces were generated specifically for the GIS system. The system also contains select groundwater-quality data and map layers that quantify groundwater and surface-water withdrawals. The aquifer information system can serve as a pre- and postprocessing environment for groundwater-flow models for use in water-supply planning, development, and management. The system also can be expanded to include features that evaluate constraints to groundwater development, such as insufficient available drawdown, degraded groundwater quality, insufficient aquifer yields, and well-field interference. Ultimately, the aquifer information system is intended to function as an interactive Web-based utility that provides a broad array of information related to groundwater resources in Maryland’s coastal plain to a wide-ranging audience, including well drillers, consultants, academia, and the general public.

Special Paper of the Geological Society of America↗

Hydrology of the Powder River alluvium between Sussex, Wyoming, and Moorhead, Montana

The potential for developing water supplies from the alluvium along the Powder River between Sussex, Wyoming, and Moorehead, Montana, is very limited. The areal extent and saturated thickness of the alluvium are not large. Water in the alluvium primarily is derived from seepage from the river, which goes dry periodically. Low flow is sustained by groundwater discharge or irrigation return flow near Sussex, but not near Arvada, Wyoming , or Moorhead. The alluvium and the river have good hydraulic connection, but evidently are isolated from the bedrock. Pumpage from wells completed in the alluvium is highly dependent on water supplied directly from the river. The quality of water in the alluvium also limits use of the water. Although the quality improves downstream, it is unacceptable for drinking water and possibly for irrigation and some industrial uses, but is acceptable for most livestock watering. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Groundwater-flow model of the Treasure Valley, southwestern Idaho, 1986–2015

Most of the population of the Treasure Valley and the surrounding area of southwestern Idaho and easternmost Oregon depends on groundwater for domestic supply, either from domestic or municipal-supply wells. Current and projected rapid population growth in the area has caused concern about the long-term sustainability of the groundwater resource. In 2016, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Idaho Water Resource Board and the Idaho Department of Water Resources, began a project to construct a numerical groundwater-flow model of the westernmost portion of the western Snake River Plain aquifer system, called the Treasure Valley. The development of the model was guided by several objectives, including: to improve the understanding of groundwater and surface water interactions; to facilitate conjunctive water management; to provide a tool for water resources planning; and to provide a tool for water allocation. The model was constructed with a spatial scale and level of detail that aimed to meet these objectives while balancing the sometimes-competing goals of fast runtimes, numerical stability, usability, and parsimony. The Treasure Valley Groundwater Flow Model (TVGWFM) is a three-dimensional finite-difference numerical model constructed using MODFLOW 6 (Langevin and others, 2017, Documentation for the MODFLOW 6 Groundwater Flow Model: U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods, book 6, chap. A55, 197 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/tm6A55 ). The model covers the westernmost portion of the western Snake River Plain and is discretized into a regular grid of 64 by 65 cells with a side length of 1 mile and 6 layers of varying depth and active area. A historical model period was developed consisting of 360 month-long stress periods for 1986–2015. The model builds upon previous modeling efforts by adding a transient period, incorporating new head and discharge observations to constrain parameters, incorporating information from the hydrogeologic framework model (HFM) of Bartolino (2019, Hydrogeologic framework of the Treasure Valley and surrounding area, Idaho and Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2019–5138, https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20195138 ) and incorporating refined estimates of evapotranspiration and irrigation classification of lands in the study area. The TVGWFM includes all significant components of recharge to and discharge from the aquifer. Inflows include canal seepage, irrigation and precipitation recharge, mountain-front recharge, rivers and stream seepage, and seepage from Lake Lowell. Outflows include discharge to agricultural drainage ditches, discharge to rivers and streams, pumping, and discharge to Lake Lowell. Each recharge or discharge component is represented separately using individual MODFLOW 6 packages. Parameter values were derived with a combination of trial-and-error steps and automated parameter estimation using PEST software (Doherty, J.E., 2005, PEST, model-independent parameter estimation–User manual: Watermark Numerical Computing, https://pesthomepage.org/documentation ). Parameter estimates were constrained with several types of observation data, including water levels, water level changes, vertical water level differences, drain discharges, change in drain discharges, river seepage, seepage from Lake Lowell, and change in seepage from Lake Lowell. Material properties from the hydrogeologic framework were also used to assign the minimum and maximum values of some parameters. A final parameter realization was reached that minimized residuals between the observed and modelled values for the various observation groups. Mean residuals for the observation groups were 15.4 feet (ft) for water levels, 0.2 ft for water level changes, 19.4 ft for vertical water level differences, −3.9 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s) for drain discharges, 0.0 ft 3 /s for changes in drain discharge, 45.0 ft 3 /s for river seepage, −40.1 ft 3 /s for Lake Lowell seepage, and 126.3 ft 3 /s for changes in Lake Lowell seepage. The quality of the model’s fit to observations varied spatially, with notable areas of under- or over-simulation of water levels present to the northwest and southwest of Lake Lowell, in the foothills along the eastern model boundary, and near the City of Eagle. Trends were observed in the residuals of many of the observation groups, indicating that the model is missing or not fully reproducing some phenomena that are observed in the system. The TVGWFM can be used as a tool for water resource planning, for understanding the interactions of groundwater and surface water at a basin scale, and for facilitating conjunctive management, but may lack the precision needed for water rights administration at a local scale. Additional sources of uncertainty or limitations of the model are noted. The quantity and spatial distribution of canal seepage and infiltration of irrigation water recharge, the largest sources of recharge to the system, are unknown and approximated indirectly. There is poor understanding of how canal seepage and incidental recharge change as land is converted from agricultural (irrigated) to suburban (semi-irrigated). These uncertainties will affect any scenarios that investigate changes to land use or irrigation practices. Finally, the model has relatively high water-level residuals around and to the southwest of Lake Lowell and should not be used to estimate water level effects in that region. The model was built with multiple, broadly expressed objectives and did not optimize performance for specific uses. However, the model and the tools included in an associated data release provide ample flexibility to improve the model for future uses. Adjustments and improvements could be made by refining the model in an area of interest, collecting additional calibration data, applying more rigorous boundary conditions, or re-estimating model parameters to optimize model performance for a specific model forecast.

Idaho↗

Waste isolation and contaminant migration - Tools and techniques for monitoring the saturated zone-unsaturated zone-plant-atmosphere continuum

In 1976 the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began studies of unsaturated zone hydrology next to the Nation’s first commercial disposal facility for low-level radioactive waste (LLRW) near Beatty, NV. Recognizing the need for long-term data collection, the USGS in 1983 established research management areas in the vicinity of the waste-burial facility through agreements with the Bureau of Land Management and the State of Nevada. Within this framework, the Amargosa Desert Research Site (ADRS; http://nevada.usgs.gov/adrs/) is serving as a field laboratory for the sustained study of water-, gas-, and contaminant-transport processes, and the development of models and methods to characterize flow and transport. The research is built on multiple lines of data that include: micrometeorology; evapotranspiration; plant metrics; soil and sediment properties; unsaturated-zone moisture, temperature, and gas composition; geology and geophysics; and groundwater. Contaminant data include tritium, radiocarbon, volatile-organic compounds (VOCs), and elemental mercury. Presented here is a summary of monitoring tools and techniques that are being applied in studies of waste isolation and contaminant migration.

Conference Paper↗