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Simulation of advective flow under steady-state and transient recharge conditions, Camp Edwards, Massachusetts Military Reservation, Cape Cod, Massachusetts

The U.S. Geological Survey has developed several ground-water models in support of an investigation of ground-water contamination being conducted by the Army National Guard Bureau at Camp Edwards, Massachusetts Military Reservation on western Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Regional and subregional steady-state models and regional transient models were used to (1) improve understanding of the hydrologic system, (2) simulate advective transport of contaminants, (3) delineate recharge areas to municipal wells, and (4) evaluate how model discretization and time-varying recharge affect simulation results. A water-table mound dominates ground-water-flow patterns. Near the top of the mound, which is within Camp Edwards, hydraulic gradients are nearly vertically downward and horizontal gradients are small. In downgradient areas that are further from the top of the water-table mound, the ratio of horizontal to vertical gradients is larger and horizontal flow predominates. The steady-state regional model adequately simulates advective transport in some areas of the aquifer; however, simulation of ground-water flow in areas with local hydrologic boundaries, such as ponds, requires more finely discretized subregional models. Subregional models also are needed to delineate recharge areas to municipal wells that are inadequately represented in the regional model or are near other pumped wells. Long-term changes in recharge rates affect hydraulic heads in the aquifer and shift the position of the top of the water-table mound. Hydraulic-gradient directions do not change over time in downgradient areas, whereas they do change substantially with temporal changes in recharge near the top of the water-table mound. The assumption of steady-state hydraulic conditions is valid in downgradient area, where advective transport paths change little over time. In areas closer to the top of the water-table mound, advective transport paths change as a function of time, transient and steady-state paths do not coincide, and the assumption of steady-state conditions is not valid. The simulation results indicate that several modeling tools are needed to adequately simulate ground-water flow at the site and that the utility of a model varies according to hydrologic conditions in the specific areas of interest.

Massachusetts

Hydrologic evaluation of the Arikaree Formation near Lusk, Niobrara and Goshen counties, Wyoming

The Arikaree Formation of early Miocene age is an aquifer of large areal extent and is composed of very fine grained, poorly bedded, loosely to moderately cemented sandstone and interbedded silt, limestone, and many concretionary layers. The area studied is about 800 square miles in southern Niobrara and northern Goshen Counties of Wyoming. Long-term average annual recharge to the aquifer from streams and precipitation is estimated to total about 24,270 acre-feet. Pumpage from public-supply and irrigation wells is estimated to have totaled about 48,000 acre-feet from 1938 through 1972. This pumpage did not cause any noticeable decrease in natural discharge and it is assumed there has been no significant change in ground-water storage. Pumpage is estimated to total about 39,500 acre-feet for the 3-year period 1973 through 1975. A digital model was developed to simulate the ground-water system in the Arikaree Formation. The model can be used to indicate the general effect of applying hydraulic stresses to the aquifer. (Woodard-USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Plan of study for the northern Great Plains regional aquifer-system analysis in parts of Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming

The Northern Great Plains, an area of about 250,000 square miles in parts of Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming, is underlain by an accumulation of sediments eroded from the Black Hills and from mountains to the west. Principal aquifers are areally extensive beds of sandstone within these sedimentary rocks, some at great depths. Anticipated future water needs dictate that available ground-water supplies be evaluated for management of this natural resource. The U.S. Geological Survey has started (1978) a 4-year study of the Northern Great Plains aquifer system. The objective of this study is to define availability and quality of ground water and to predict the effects of using this resource. To achieve this objective, the ground-water system will be described in terms of spatial distribution, hydraulics, geology, and geochemistry. Once described, the ground-water system will be simulated by mathematical models that will be used to define responses of the system to various management alternatives and assumed development patterns.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming

Hydrogeologic setting and conceptual hydrologic model of the Spring Creek Basin, Centre County, Pennsylvania, June 2005

The Spring Creek Basin, Centre County, Pa., is experiencing some of the most rapid growth and development within the Commonwealth. This trend has resulted in land-use changes and increased water use, which will affect the quantity and quality of stormwater runoff, surface water, ground water, and aquatic resources within the basin. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the ClearWater Conservancy (CWC), Spring Creek Watershed Community (SCWC), and Spring Creek Watershed Commission (SCWCm), has developed a Watershed Plan (Plan) to assist decision makers in water-resources planning. One element of the Plan is to provide a summary of the basin characteristics and a conceptual model that incorporates the hydrogeologic characteristics of the basin. The report presents hydrogeologic data for the basin and presents a conceptual model that can be used as the basis for simulating surface-water and ground-water flow within the basin. Basin characteristics; sources of data referenced in this text; physical characteristics such as climate, physiography, topography, and land use; hydrogeologic characteristics; and water-quality characteristics are discussed. A conceptual model is a simplified description of the physical components and interaction of the surface- and ground-water systems. The purpose for constructing a conceptual model is to simplify the problem and to organize the available data so that the system can be analyzed accurately. Simplification is necessary, because a complete accounting of a system, such as Spring Creek, is not possible. The data and the conceptual model could be used in development of a fully coupled numerical model that dynamically links surface water, ground water, and land-use changes. The model could be used by decision makers to manage water resources within the basin and as a prototype that is transferable to other watersheds.

Pennsylvania

Hydrogeology and simulation of ground-water flow at Arnold Air Force Base, Coffee and Franklin counties, Tennessee

The U.S. Air Force at Arnold Air Force Base (AAFB), in Coffee and Franklin Counties, Tennessee, is investigating ground-water contamination in selected areas of the base. This report documents the results of a comprehensive investigation of the regional hydrogeology of the AAFB area. Three aquifers within the Highland Rim aquifer system, the shallow aquifer, the Manchester aquifer, and the Fort Payne aquifer, have been identified in the study area. Of these, the Manchester aquifer is the primary source of water for domestic use. Drilling and water- quality data indicate that the Chattanooga Shale is an effective confining unit, isolating the Highland Rim aquifer system from the deeper, upper Central Basin aquifer system. A regional ground-water divide, approximately coinciding with the Duck River-Elk River drainage divide, underlies AAFB and runs from southwest to northeast. The general direction of most ground-water flow is to the north- west or to the northwest or to the southeast from the divide towards tributary streams that drain the area. Recharge estimates range from 4 to 11 inches per year. Digital computer modeling was used to simulate and provide a better understanding of the ground-water flow system. The model indicates that most of the ground-water flow occurs in the shallow and Manchester aquifers. The model was most sensitive to increases in hydraulic conductivity and changes in recharge rates. Particle-tracking analysis from selected sites of ground-water contamination indicates a potential for contami- nants to be transported beyond the boundary of AAFB.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Analog-model simulations for secondary canal controls and forward pumping water-management schemes in southeast Florida

The analog model of the Biscayne aquifer of southeast Florida was used to approximate the effects of two proposed water-management schemes. One involved adding a secondary control structure in a major canal which is controlled near the coast. In the model the controls were operated in accordance with canal water level both above and below the secondary control. Although the model could not differentiate between control openings of 1 foot or 5 feet, it showed that the secondary control is a viable method of conserving ground water. The second scheme involved pumping ground water ('forward pumping') from the Biscayne aquifer in inland areas during the dry season to: (1) augment canal flows toward the coast to sustain ground-water levels there, and (2) generate additional ground-water storage space for recharge in the wet season. Several sites on the model were programmed for forward pumping wells and the storage change was noted as a percentage of the ground-water withdrawal. (Woodard-USGS)

Florida

Effects of present and projected ground-water withdrawals on the Twin Cities aquifer system, Minnesota

The Twin Cities aquifer system in Minnesota contains 5 aquifers and 4 confining units composed of 14 stratigraphic units. Bedrock aquifers consist of friable sandstones and highly fractured carbonate rocks; aquifers in the glacial drift consist of outwash and alluvium. From 1880 to 1980, groundwater withdrawals had caused long-term declines of water levels of as much as 90 feet in the Prairie du Chien-Jordan aquifer and 240 feet in the deeper Mount Simon-Hinckley aquifer--the two major sources of ground-water supplies in the area. A steady-state model of ground-water flow was used successfully to simulate the potentiometric surfaces of the aquifers during the 1970's. assuming a withdrawal rate of about 190 million gallons per day from the entire system. Projected changes in population and industrial development suggest that future ground-water withdrawals may increase from those for the 1970's. Steady-state model results indicate that the potentiometric surface of the Mount Simon-Hinckley aquifer would be lowered as much as 400 feet if pumpage from that aquifer were increased by 125 percent above 1980 ground-water withdrawal rates of about 200 million gallons per day. The potentiometric surface of the Prairie du Chien-Jordan aquifer also would be lowered as much as 400 feet if pumpage from that aquifer were increased by 200 percent above 1980 ground-water withdrawals of 160 million gallons per day. Given the projected distribution of future ground-water development, and the limitations inherent in simulating ground-water flow, the model results indicate that an approximate limit of ground-water availability in the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area, Minnesota, is from about 500 to 800 million gallons per day.

Minnesota

Modeled future peak streamflows in four coastal Maine rivers

To safely and economically design bridges and culverts, it is necessary to compute the magnitude of peak streamflows that have specified annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs). Annual precipitation and air temperature in the northeastern United States are, in general, projected to increase during the 21st century. It is therefore important for engineers and resource managers to understand how peak flows may change in the future. This report, prepared in cooperation with the Maine Department of Transportation (MaineDOT), presents modeled changes in peak flows at four basins in coastal Maine on the basis of projected changes in air temperature and precipitation. To estimate future peak streamflows at the four basins in this study, historical values for climate (temperature and precipitation) in the basins were adjusted by different amounts and input to a hydrologic model of each study basin. To encompass the projected changes in climate in coastal Maine by the end of the 21st century, air temperatures were adjusted by four different amounts, from -3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (ºF) (-2 degrees Celsius (ºC)) to +10.8 ºF (+6 ºC) of observed temperatures. Precipitation was adjusted by three different percentage values from -15 percent to +30 percent of observed precipitation. The resulting 20 combinations of temperature and precipitation changes (includes the no-change scenarios) were input to Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) watershed models, and annual daily maximum peak flows were calculated for each combination. Modeled peak flows from the adjusted changes in temperature and precipitation were compared to unadjusted (historical) modeled peak flows. Annual daily maximum peak flows increase or decrease, depending on whether temperature or precipitation is adjusted; increases in air temperature (with no change in precipitation) lead to decreases in peak flows, whereas increases in precipitation (with no change in temperature) lead to increases in peak flows. As the magnitude of air temperatures increase in the four basins, peak flows decrease by larger amounts. If precipitation is held constant (no change from historical values), 17 to 26 percent decreases in peak flow occur at the four basins when temperature is increased by 7.2°F. If temperature is held constant, 26 to 38 percent increases in peak flow result from a 15-percent increase in precipitation. The largest decreases in peak flows at the four basins result from 15-percent decreases in precipitation combined with temperature increases of 10.8°F. The largest increases in peak flows generally result from 30-percent increases in precipitation combined with 3.6 °F decreases in temperatures. In many cases when temperature and precipitation both increase, small increases or decreases in annual daily maximum peak flows result. For likely changes projected for the northeastern United States for the middle of the 21st century (temperature increase of 3.6 °F and precipitation increases of 0 to 15 percent), peak-flow changes at the four coastal Maine basins in this study are modeled to be evenly distributed between increases and decreases of less than 25 percent. Peak flows with 50-percent and 1-percent AEPs (equivalent to 2-year and 100-year recurrence interval peak flows, respectively) were calculated for the four basins in the study using the PRMS-modeled annual daily maximum peak flows. Modeled peak flows with 50-percent and 1-percent AEPs with adjusted temperatures and precipitation were compared to unadjusted (historical) modeled values. Changes in peak flows with 50-percent AEPs are similar to changes in annual daily maximum peak flow; changes in peak flows with 1-percent AEPs are similar in pattern to changes in annual daily maximum peak flow, but some of the changes associated with increasing precipitation are much larger than changes in annual daily maximum peak flow. Substantial decreases in maximum annual winter snowpack water equivalent are modeled to occur with increasing air temperatures at the four basins in the study. (Snowpack is the snow on the ground that accumulates during a winter, and water equivalent is the amount of water in a snowpack if it were melted.) The decrease in modeled peak flows with increasing air temperature, given no change in precipitation amount, is likely caused by these decreases in winter snowpack and resulting decreases in snowmelt runoff. This Scientific Investigations Report, prepared in cooperation with the Maine Department of Transportation, presents a summary of modeled changes in peak flows at four basins in coastal Maine on the basis of projected changes in air temperature and precipitation. The full Fact Sheet (Hodgkins and Dudley, 2013) is available at http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2013/3021/.

Maine

Model-estimated ground-water recharge and hydrograph of ground-water discharge to a stream

The computer model PULSE, described in this report, can be used to construct a hydrograph of ground-water discharge to a stream. The model is applicable to a ground-water flow system that is driven by areally uniform recharge to the water table, and in which ground water discharges to a gaining stream. One of the two formulations used by the model allows for an instantaneous recharge pulse and subsequent ground-water discharge to the stream. The other formulation, which allows for a gradual hydrologic gain or loss term in addition to the instantaneous pulse, can be used to simulate the effects of gradual recharge to the water table, ground-water evapotranspiration, or downward leakage to a deeper aquifer.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Simulated changes in ground-water levels and streamflow resulting from future development (1970 to 2020) in the Platte River basin, Nebraska

Future changes in ground-water levels and streamflow caused by a limited set of water-resources development conditions were simulated with digital models of stream-aquifer systems within the Platte River Basin, Nebraska. Simulated water-resources use in the basin included private development of ground water for irrigation, Federal development of surface-water systems for irrigation, and development of ground water to supply municipal demands of Lincoln and Omaha. Simulated future conditions indicate that significant permanent declines in ground-water levels and streamflows may occur as a result of private development of ground water for irrigation. The largest simulated declines in ground-water levels were more than 80 feet by the year 2020 in upland areas in the Elkhorn and Middle Platte subbasins under conditions of rapid development of all irrigable lands. Simulated depletion of perennial streamflows by ground-water withdrawals indicated that future surface-water supplies may be limited in parts of the basin. Simulated depletions to major streams exceeded 60 percent of average perennial flow in the Elkhorn subbasin under conditions of rapid private development of ground water for irrigation. Simulations that evaluated the effects of combined private groundwater development with proposed Federal development of surface water for irrigation showed that in the project areas, ground-water level declines were reduced compared to "without project" conditions. In some project areas, simulated ground-water levels rose with the application of surface water in excess of consumptive-use requirements and soil-moisture storage capacities. The ground-water level rises would lead to waterlogged conditions in parts of the Middle Platte subbasin. The accuracy of the models developed in this study would be improved most by collection of additional data on ground-water withdrawals and storage properties at the aquifer.

Nebraska

Simulations of Ground-Water Flow, Transport, Age, and Particle Tracking near York, Nebraska, for a Study of Transport of Anthropogenic and Natural Contaminants (TANC) to Public-Supply Wells

Contamination of public-supply wells has resulted in public-health threats and negative economic effects for communities that must treat contaminated water or find alternative water supplies. To investigate factors controlling vulnerability of public-supply wells to anthropogenic and natural contaminants using consistent and systematic data collected in a variety of principal aquifer settings in the United States, a study of Transport of Anthropogenic and Natural Contaminants to public-supply wells was begun in 2001 as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program. The area simulated by the ground-water flow model described in this report was selected for a study of processes influencing contaminant distribution and transport along the direction of ground-water flow towards a public-supply well in southeastern York, Nebraska. Ground-water flow is simulated for a 60-year period from September 1, 1944, to August 31, 2004. Steady-state conditions are simulated prior to September 1, 1944, and represent conditions prior to use of ground water for irrigation. Irrigation, municipal, and industrial wells were simulated using the Multi-Node Well package of the modular three-dimensional ground-water flow model code, MODFLOW-2000, which allows simulation of flow and solutes through wells that are simulated in multiple nodes or layers. Ground-water flow, age, and transport of selected tracers were simulated using the Ground-Water Transport process of MODFLOW-2000. Simulated ground-water age was compared to interpreted ground-water age in six monitoring wells in the unconfined aquifer. The tracer chlorofluorocarbon-11 was simulated directly using Ground-Water Transport for comparison with concentrations measured in six monitoring wells and one public supply well screened in the upper confined aquifer. Three alternative model simulations indicate that simulation results are highly sensitive to the distribution of multilayer well bores where leakage can occur and that the calibrated model resulted in smaller differences than the alternative models between simulated and interpreted ages and measured tracer concentrations in most, but not all, wells. Results of the first alternative model indicate that the distribution of young water in the upper confined aquifer is substantially different when well-bore leakage at known abandoned wells and test holes is removed from the model. In the second alternative model, simulated age near the bottom of the unconfined aquifer was younger than interpreted ages and simulated chlorofluorocarbon-11 concentrations in the upper confined aquifer were zero in five out of six wells because the conventional Well Package fails to account for flow between model layers though well bores. The third alternative model produced differences between simulated and interpreted ground-water ages and measured chlorofluorocarbon-11 concentrations that were comparable to the calibrated model. However, simulated hydraulic heads deviated from measured hydraulic heads by a greater amount than for the calibrated model. Even so, because the third alternative model simulates steady-state flow, additional analysis was possible using steady-state particle tracking to assess the contributing recharge area to a public supply well selected for analysis of factors contributing to well vulnerability. Results from particle-tracking software (MODPATH) using the third alternative model indicates that the contributing recharge area of the study public-supply well is a composite of elongated, seemingly isolated areas associated with wells that are screened in multiple aquifers. The simulated age distribution of particles at the study public-supply well indicates that all water younger than 58 years travels through well bores of wells screened in multiple aquifers. The age distribution from the steady-state model using MODPATH estimates the youngest 7 percent of the water to have a flow-weighted mean age

Scientific Investigations Report

Surface-water hydrology and runoff simulations for three basins in Pierce County, Washington

The surface-water hydrology in Clear, Clarks, and Clover Creek Basins in central Pierce County, Washington, is described with a conceptual model of the runoff processes and then simulated with the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF), a continuous, deterministic hydrologic model. The study area is currently undergoing a rapid conversion of rural, undeveloped land to urban and suburban land that often changes the flow characteristics of the streams that drain these lands. The complex interactions of land cover, climate, soils, topography, channel characteristics, and ground- water flow patterns determine the surface-water hydrology of the study area and require a complex numerical model to assess the impact of urbanization on streamflows. The U.S. Geological Survey completed this investigation in cooperation with the Storm Drainage and Surface Water Management Utility within the Pierce County Department of Public Works to describe the important rainfall-runoff processes within the study area and to develop a simulation model to be used as a tool to predict changes in runoff characteristics resulting from changes in land use. The conceptual model, a qualitative representation of the study basins, links the physical characteristics to the runoff process of the study basins. The model incorporates 11 generalizations identified by the investigation, eight of which describe runoff from hillslopes, and three that account for the effects of channel characteristics and ground-water flow patterns on runoff. Stream discharge was measured at 28 sites and precipitation was measured at six sites for 3 years in two overlapping phases during the period of October 1989 through September 1992 to calibrate and validate the simulation model. Comparison of rainfall data from October 1989 through September 1992 shows the data-collection period beginning with 2 wet water years followed by the relatively dry 1992 water year. Runoff was simulated with two basin models-the Clover Creek Basin model and the Clear-Clarks Basin model-by incorporating the generalizations of the conceptual model into the construction of two HSPF numerical models. Initially, the process-related parameters for runoff from glacial-till hillslopes were calibrated with numerical models for three catchment sites and one headwater basin where streamflows were continuously measured and little or no influence from ground water, channel storage, or channel losses affected runoff. At one of the catchments soil moisture was monitored and compared with simulated soil moisture. The values for these parameters were used in the basin models. Basin models were calibrated to the first year of observed streamflow data by adjusting other parameters in the numerical model that simulated channel losses, simulated channel storage in a few of the reaches in the headwaters and in the floodplain of the main stem of Clover Creek, and simulated volume and outflow of the ground-water reservoir representing the regional ground-water aquifers. The models were run for a second year without any adjustments, and simulated results were compared with observed results as a measure of validation of the models. The investigation showed the importance of defining the ground-water flow boundaries and demonstrated a simple method of simulating the influence of the regional ground-water aquifer on streamflows. In the Clover Creek Basin model, ground-water flow boundaries were used to define subbasins containing mostly glacial outwash soils and not containing any surface drainage channels. In the Clear-Clarks Basin model, ground-water flow boundaries outlined a recharge area outside the surface-water boundaries of the basin that was incorporated into the model in order to provide sufficient water to balance simulated ground-water outflows to the creeks. A simulated ground-water reservoir used to represent regional ground-water flow processes successfully provided the proper water balance of inflows and outfl

Washington

Assessment of the hydrogeology and water quality in a near-shore well field, Sarasota, Florida

The city of Sarasota, Florida, operates a downtown well field that pumps mineralized water from ground water sources to supply a reverse osmosis plant. Because of the close proximity of the well field to Sarasota Bay and the high sulfate and chloride concentrations of ground-water supplies, a growing concern exists about the possibility of lateral movement of saltwater in a landward direction (intrusion) and vertical movement of relict sea water (upconing). In 1992, the U.S. Geological Survey began a 3-year study to evaluate the hydraulic characteristics and water quality of ground-water resources within the downtown well field and the surrounding 235-square-mile study area. Delineation of the hydrogeology of the study area was based on water- quality data, aquifer test data, and extensive borehole geophysical surveys (including gamma, caliper, temperature, electrical resistivity, and flow meter logs) from the six existing production wells and from a corehole drilled as part of the study, as well as from published and unpublished reports on file at the U.S. Geological Survey, the Southwest Florida Water Management District, and consultant's reports. Water-quality data were examined for spatial and temporal trends that might relate to the mechanism for observed water-quality changes. Water quality in the study area appears to be dependent upon several mechanisms, including upconing of higher salinity water from deeper zones within the aquifer system, interbore-hole flow between zones of varying water quality through improperly cased and corroded wells, migration of highly mineralized waters through structural deformities, and the presence of unflushed relict seawater. A numerical ground-water flow model was developed as an interpretative tool where field-derived hydrologic characteristics could be tested. The conceptual model consisted of seven layers to represent the multilayered aquifer systems underlying the study area. Particle tracking was utilized to delineate the travel path of water as it enters the model area under a set of given conditions. Within the model area, simulated flow in the intermediate aquifer system originates primarily from the northwestern boundary. Simulated flow in the Upper Floridan aquifer originates in lower model layers (deeper flow zones) and ultimately can be traced to the southeastern and northwestern boundaries. Volumetric budgets calculated from numerical simulation of a hypothetical well field indicate that the area of contribution to the well field changes seasonally. Although ground-water flow patterns change with wet and dry seasons, most water enters the well-field flow system through lower parts of the Upper Floridan aquifer from a southeastern direction. Moreover, particle tracking indicated that ground-water flow paths with strictly lateral pathlines in model layers correspond to the intermediate aquifer system, whereas particles traced through model layers corresponding to the Upper Floridan aquifer had components of vertical and lateral flow.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Simulation of the ground-water-flow system in the Kalamazoo County area, Michigan

A ground-water-flow model was developed to investigate the ground-water resources of Kalamazoo County. Ground water is widely used as a source of water for drinking and industry in Kalamazoo County and the surrounding area. Additionally, lakes and streams are valued for their recreational and aesthetic uses. Stresses on the ground-water system, both natural and human-induced, have raised concerns about the long-term availability of ground water for people to use and for replenishment of lakes and streams. Potential changes in these stresses, including withdrawals and recharge, were simulated using a ground-water-flow model. Simulations included steady-state conditions (in which stresses remained constant and changes in storage were not included) and transient conditions (in which stresses changed in seasonal and monthly time scales and storage within the system was included). Steady-state simulations were used to investigate the long-term effects on water levels and streamflow of a reduction in recharge or an increase in pumping to projected 2010 withdrawal rates, withdrawal and application of water for irrigation, and a reduction in recharge in urban areas caused by impervious surfaces. Transient simulations were used to investigate changes in withdrawals to match seasonal and monthly patterns under various recharge conditions, and the potential effects of the use of water for irrigation over the summer months. With a reduction in recharge, simulated water levels declined over most of the model area in Kalamazoo County; with an increase in pumping, water levels declined primarily near pumping centers. Because withdrawals by wells intercept water that would have discharged possibly to a stream or lake, model simulations indicated that streamflow was reduced with increased withdrawals. With withdrawal and consumption of water for irrigation, simulated water levels declined. Assuming a reduction in recharge due to urbanization, water levels declined and flow to streams was reduced based on steady-state simulation results. Transient results indicated a reduction of water levels with the simulated use of water for irrigation over the summer months. Generally the transient simulation with recharge only in the winter provided the best fit to observed water levels collected during synoptic water-level measurements in some wells and to the trends observed in water levels for other wells. Analysis of the regional hydrologic budgets provides an increased understanding of water movement within the ground-water-flow system in Kalamazoo County. Budgets for the steady-state simulations indicated that with reduced recharge, less water was available for streamflow and less water left the model area through the model boundaries. Similarly, with an increase in pumping rates, less water was available to enter streams and become streamflow. When recharge was assumed to remain constant and when it was allowed to vary throughout the year, the amount of water that entered storage was greater than that which left storage. However, when recharge was distributed through October?May only or when recharge rates were reduced from October to May, the amount of water that entered storage was less than that which left storage. Thus, on the basis of model simulations, with reduced recharge or increased withdrawals, water must come from storage, rivers, or from ground-flow-system boundaries to meet withdrawal demands.

Michigan

Simulated effects of impoundment of lake seminole on ground-water flow in the upper Floridan Aquifer in southwestern Georgia and adjacent parts of Alabama and Florida

Hydrologic implications of the impoundment of Lake Seminole in southwest Georgia and its effect on components of the surface- and ground-water flow systems of the lower Apalachicola?Chattahoochee?Flint (ACF) River Basin were investigated using a ground-water model. Comparison of simulation results of postimpoundment drought conditions (October 1986) with results of hypothetical preimpoundment conditions (a similar drought prior to 1955) provides a qualitative measure of the changes in hydraulic head and ground-water flow to and from streams and Lake Seminole, and across State lines caused by the impoundment. Based on the simulation results, the impoundment of Lake Seminole changed ground-water flow directions within about 20?30 miles of the lake, reducing the amount of ground water flowing from Florida to Georgia southeast of the lake. Ground-water storage was increased by the impoundment, as indicated by a simulated increase of as much as 26 feet in the water level in the Upper Floridan aquifer. The impoundment of Lake Seminole caused changes to simulated components of the ground-water budget, including reduced discharge from the Upper Floridan aquifer to streams (315 million gallons per day); reduced recharge from or increased discharge to regional ground-water flow at external model boundaries (totaling 183 million gallons per day); and reduced recharge from or increased discharge to the undifferentiated overburden (totaling 129 million gallons per day).

Alabama, Florida, Georgia

Simulation of ground-water flow in the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system near the Defense Supply Center Philadelphia, and the Point Breeze Refinery, southern Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania

Ground-water flow in the Potomac-Raritan- Magothy aquifer system (PRM) in south Philadelphia and adjacent southwestern New Jersey was simulated by use of a three-dimensional, seven-layer finite-difference numerical flow model. The simulation was run from 1900, which was prior to groundwater development, through 1995 with 21 stress periods. The focus of the modeling was on a smaller area of concern in south Philadelphia in the vicinity of the Defense Supply Center Philadelphia (DSCP) and the Point Breeze Refinery (PBR). In order to adequately simulate the ground-water flow system in the area of concern, a much larger area was modeled that included parts of New Jersey where significant ground-water withdrawals, which affect water levels in southern Philadelphia, had occurred in the past. At issue in the area of concern is a hydrocarbon plume of unknown origin and time of release. The ground-water-flow system was simulated to estimate past water-level altitudes in and near the area of concern and to determine the effect of the Packer Avenue sewer, which lies south of the DSCP, on the ground-water-flow system. Simulated water-level altitudes for the lower sand unit of the PRM on the DSCP prior to 1945 ranged from pre-development, unstressed altitudes to 3 feet below sea level. Simulated water-level altitudes for the lower sand unit ranged from 3 to 7 feet below sea level from 1946 to 1954, from 6 to 10 feet below sea level from 1955 to 1968, and from 9 to 11 feet below sea level from 1969 to 1978. The lowest simulated water-level altitude on the DSCP was 10.69 feet below sea level near the end of 1974. Model simulations indicate ground water was infiltrating the Packer Avenue sewer prior to approximately 1947 or 1948. Subsequent to that time, simulated ground-water-level altitudes were lower than the bottom of the sewer.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Hydrogeology and analysis of ground-water-flow system, Sagamore Marsh area, southeastern Massachusetts

A study of the hydrogeology and an analysis of the ground-water-flow system near Sagamore Marsh, southeastern Massachusetts, was undertaken to improve the understanding of the current (1994­ 95) hydrogeologic conditions near the marsh and how the ground-water system might respond to proposed changes in the tidal-stage regime of streams that flood and drain the marsh. Sagamore Marsh is in a coastal area that is bounded to the east by Cape Cod Bay and to the south by the Cape Cod Canal. The regional geology is characterized by deltaic and glaciolacustrine sediments. The sediments consist of gravel, sand, silt, and clay and are part of the Plymouth-Carver regional aquifer system. The glacial sediments are hounded laterally by marine sand, silt, and clay along the coast. The principal aquifer in the area consists of fine to coarse glacial sand and is locally confined by fine-grained glaciolacustrine deposits consisting of silt and sandy clay and fine-grained salt-marsh sediments consisting of peat and clay. The aquifer is underlain by finer grained glaciolacustrine sediments in upland areas and by marine clay along the coast. Shallow ground water discharges primarily along the edge of the marsh, whereas deeper ground water flows beneath the marsh and discharges to Cape Cod Bay. Tidal pulses originating from Cape Cod Bay and from tidal channels in the marsh are rapidly attenuated in the subsurface. Tidal ranges in Cape Cod Bay and in the tidal channels were on the order of 9 and 1.5 feet, respectively, whereas tidal ranges in the ground-water levels were less than 0.2 foot. Tidal pulses measured in the water table beneath a barrier beach between the marsh and Cape Cod Bay were more in phase with tidal pulses from Cape Cod Bay than with tidal pulses from the tidal channels in Sagamore Marsh, whereas tidal pulses in the regional aquifer were more in phase with tidal pulses from the tidal channels. A 5-day aquifer test at a public-supply well adjacent to the marsh gave a transmissivity of the regional aquifer of 9,300 to 10,900 feet squared per day and a hydraulic conductivity of 181 to 213 feet per day, assuming a saturated thickness of the aquifer of 51.3 feet. The regional aquifer became unconfined near the pumped well during the test. The ratio of tidal ranges in the tidal channel to the ranges in the underlying aquifer at two sites (the lower and upper marsh) indicated aquifer diffusivities for the marsh sediments of 380 and 170 feet squared per day; these values correspond to hydraulic conductivities of 2.5 x 10 -3 and 1.7 x 10 -3 feet per day, respectively. The maximum distances from the tidal channel at the lower and upper marsh sites where tidal ranges would exceed 0.01 foot, as calculated from aquifer diffusivities and current (1995) tidal ranges in the tidal channels, were 24.4 and 26.7 feet, respectively. The maximum distances from the tidal channel where tidal pulses in the ground water would exceed 0.01 foot, using potential increased tidal stages resulting from proposed tidal-stage modifications and predicted by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, were 37.1 and 42.0 feet, respectively. A numerical model of the marsh and surrounding aquifer system indicated that the contributing area for the supply well adjacent to the marsh, for current (1994) pumping conditions, extends toward Great Herring Pond, about 2 miles northwest (upgradient) of the well, and does not extend beneath the marsh. The model also indicates that the predicted increases in tidal stages in the marsh will have a negligible effect on local ground-water levels.

Massachusetts

Ground-water resources of coastal Citrus, Hernando, and southwestern Levy counties, Florida

Ground water in the coastal parts of Citrus, Hernando, and Levy Counties is obtained almost entirely from the Floridan aquifer. The aquifer is unconfined near the coast and semiconfined in the ridge area. Transmissivity ranges from 20,000 feet squared per day in the ridge area to greater than 2,000,000 feet squared per day near major springs. Changes in the potentiometric surface of the aquifer are small between the wet and dry seasons. Water quality within the study area is generally very good except immediately adjacent to the coast where saltwater from the Gulf of Mexico poses a threat to freshwater supply. This threat can be compensated for by placing well fields a sufficient distance away from the zone of transition from saltwater to freshwater so as not to reduce or reverse the hydraulic gradient in that zone. Computer models are presently available to help predict the extent of influence of ground-water withdrawals in an area. These may be used as management tools in planning ground-water development of the area. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report