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At least 127 records · Page 7Linked to original sources
USGS2025

Automating physics-based models to estimate thermoelectric-power water use

Thermoelectric (TE) power plants withdraw more water than any other sector of water use in the United States and consume water at rates that can be significant especially in water-stressed regions. Historical TE water-use data have been inconsistent, incomplete, or discrepant, resulting in an increased research focus on improving the accuracy and availability of TE water-use data using modeling approaches. This paper describes and benchmarks new code that was developed to automate and update a physics-based TE water use model that was previously published. Utilizing the automated physics-based model, monthly TE-power water withdrawal and consumption were calculated for a total of 1341 TE power plants for the 2008–2020 historical reanalysis. The updated and automated physics-based thermoelectric-power water-use model provides spatially and temporally relevant TE water-use estimates that are consistent, reproducible, transparent, and can be generated efficiently for water-using, utility-scale TE-power plants across conterminous United States (CONUS).

Environmental Modelling and Software↗
USGS2026

A catalogue of Do's and Don'ts in the modeling of environmental systems

Modeling plays a vital role in understanding and managing complex environmental systems, but its credibility and quality depend heavily on a comprehensive set of defensible model activities and practices, especially when the system of interest is plagued with uncertainties and conflicting stakeholder perspectives. This paper proposes a catalogue of Do's and Don'ts to guide modelers in addressing the many pertinent considerations through the whole modeling cycle. This practical tool provides advice on approaching modeling effectively through adhering to good modeling practice. It emphasizes model choices that align with the model purpose and context, and the justification and documentation of modeling decisions and assumptions. Managing uncertainty is a core consideration. The identification, assessment and reporting of these uncertainties is important across the entire modeling process, which spans problem framing, technical design, implementation and application phases. Such good practices are critical for transparency and reliability of the modeling.

Environmental Modelling and Software↗
USGS2000

Simulation of nitrous oxide and nitric oxide emissions from tropical primary forests in the Costa Rican Atlantic Zone

Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) and nitric oxide (NO) are important atmospheric trace gases participating in the regulation of global climate and environment. Predictive models on the emissions of N 2 O and NO emissions from soil into the atmosphere are required. We modified the CENTURY model (Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J., 51 (1987) 1173) to simulate the emissions of N 2 O and NO from tropical primary forests in the Atlantic Zone of Costa Rica at a monthly time step. Combined fluxes of N 2 O and NO were simulated as a function of gross N mineralization and water-filled pore space (WFPS). The coefficients for partitioning N 2 O from NO were derived from field measurements (Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 8 (1994) 399). The modified CENTURY was calibrated against observations of carbon stocks in various pools of forest ecosystems of the region, and measured WFPS and emission rates of N 2 O and NO from soil to the atmosphere. WFPS is an important factor regulating nutrient cycling and emissions of N2O and NO from soils making the accuracy of the WFPS prediction central to the modeling process. To do this, we modified the hydrologic submodel and developed a new method for the prediction of WFPS at the monthly scale from daily rainfall information. The new method is based on: (1) the relationship between monthly rainfall and the number of rainfall events, and (2) the relative cumulative frequency distribution of ranked daily rainfall events. The method is generic and should be applicable to other areas. Simulated monthly average WFPS was 0.68±0.02 — identical with the field measurement average of 0.68±0.02 from the annual cycle observed by Keller and Reiners (Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 8 (1994) 399). Simulated fluxes of N 2 O and NO were 52.0±9.4 mg-N m −2 month −1 and 6.5±0.7 mg-N m −2 month −1 , respectively, compared with measured averages of 48.2±11.0 mg-N m −2 month −1 and 7.1±1.1 mg-N m −2 month −1 . The simulated N 2 O/NO ratio was 11.2±1.9 compared with the measured value of 10.9±4.7. WFPS is the dominant determinant of the fraction of gross N mineralization that is emitted from the soil as N 2 O and NO. If WFPS were not limiting during part of the year, this fraction would be 4.2%. With some periods of lower WFPS, the realized fraction is 2.2%. Because of the strong relationships between N 2 O and NO emission rates and rainfall and its derivative, WFPS, these moisture variables can be used to scale up nitrogen trace gas fluxes from sites to larger spatial scales.

Environmental Modelling and Software↗
USGS2007

3D Visualization of Earthquake Focal Mechanisms Using ArcScene

We created a new tool, 3D Focal Mechanisms (3DFM), for viewing earthquake focal mechanism symbols three dimensionally. This tool operates within the Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI®) GIS software ArcScene® 9.x. The program requires as input a GIS point dataset of earthquake locations containing strike, dip, and rake values for a nodal plane of each earthquake. Other information, such as depth and magnitude of the earthquake, may also be included in the dataset. By default for each focal point, 3DFM will create a black and white sphere or “beach ball” that is oriented based on the strike, dip, and rake values. If depth values for each earthquake are included, the focal symbol will also be placed at its appropriate location beneath the Earth's surface. In addition to the default settings, there are several other options in 3DFM that can be adjusted. The appearance of the symbols can be changed by (1) creating rings around the fault planes that are colored based on magnitude, (2) showing only the fault planes instead of a sphere, (3) drawing a flat disc that identifies the primary nodal plane, (4) or by displaying the null, pressure, and tension axes. The size of the symbols can be changed by adjusting their diameter, scaling them based on the magnitude of the earthquake, or scaling them by the estimated size of the rupture patch based on earthquake magnitude. It is also possible to filter the data using any combination of the strike, dip, rake, magnitude, depth, null axis plunge, pressure axis plunge, tension axis plunge, or fault type values of the points. For a large dataset, these filters can be used to create different subsets of symbols. Symbols created by 3DFM are stored in graphics layers that appear in the ArcScene® table of contents. Multiple graphics layers can be created and saved to preserve the output from different symbol options.

Data Series↗
USGS2001

Geologic map of the Chewelah 30' x 60' Quadrangle, Washington and Idaho

This data set maps and describes the geology of the Chewelah 30' X 60' quadrangle, Washington and Idaho. Created using Environmental Systems Research Institute's ARC/INFO software, the data base consists of the following items: (1) a map coverage containing geologic contacts and units, (2) a point coverage containing site-specific geologic structural data, (3) two coverages derived from 1:100,000 Digital Line Graphs (DLG); one of which represents topographic data, and the other, cultural data, (4) two line coverages that contain cross-section lines and unit-label leaders, respectively, and (5) attribute tables for geologic units (polygons), contacts (arcs), and site-specific data (points). In addition, the data set includes the following graphic and text products: (1) A PostScript graphic plot-file containing the geologic map, topography, cultural data, and two cross sections, and on a separate sheet, a Correlation of Map Units (CMU) diagram, an abbreviated Description of Map Units (DMU), modal diagrams for granitic rocks, an index map, a regional geologic and structure map, and a key for point and line symbols; (2) PDF files of the Readme text-file and expanded Description of Map Units (DMU), and (3) this metadata file. The geologic map database contains original U.S. Geological Survey data generated by detailed field observation and by interpretation of aerial photographs. The map was compiled from geologic maps of eight 1:48,000 15' quadrangle blocks, each of which was made by mosaicing and reducing the four constituent 7.5' quadrangles. These 15' quadrangle blocks were mapped chiefly at 1:24,000 scale, but the detail of the mapping was governed by the intention that it was to be compiled at 1:48,000 scale. The compilation at 1:100,000 scale entailed necessary simplification in some areas and combining of some geologic units. Overall, however, despite a greater than two times reduction in scale, most geologic detail found on the 1:48,000 maps is retained on the 1:100,000 map. Geologic contacts across boundaries of the eight constituent quadrangles required minor adjustments, but none significant at the final 1:100,000 scale. The geologic map was compiled on a base-stable cronoflex copy of the Chewelah 30' X 60' topographic base and then scribed. The scribe guide was used to make a 0.007 mil-thick blackline clear-film, which was scanned at 1200 DPI by Optronics Specialty Company, Northridge, California. This image was converted to vector and polygon GIS layers and minimally attributed by Optronics Specialty Company. Minor hand-digitized additions were made at the USGS. Lines, points, and polygons were subsequently edited at the USGS by using standard ARC/INFO commands. Digitizing and editing artifacts significant enough to display at a scale of 1:100,000 were corrected. Within the database, geologic contacts are represented as lines (arcs), geologic units as polygons, and site-specific data as points. Polygon, arc, and point attribute tables (.pat, .aat, and .pat, respectively) uniquely identify each geologic datum.

Miscellaneous Field Studies Map↗
USGS2003

Archive of chirp seismic reflection data collected during USGS cruises 00SCC02 and 00SCC04, Barataria Basin, Louisiana, May 12-31 and June 17-July 2, 2000

This archive consists of two-dimensional marine seismic reflection profile data collected in the Barataria Basin of southern Louisiana. These data were acquired in May, June, and July of 2000 aboard the R/V G.K. Gilbert. Included here are data in a variety of formats including binary, American Standard Code for Information Interchange (ASCII), Hyper-Text Markup Language (HTML), shapefiles, and Graphics Interchange Format (GIF) and Joint Photographic Experts Group (JPEG) images. Binary data are in Society of Exploration Geophysicists (SEG) SEG-Y format and may be downloaded for further processing or display. Reference maps and GIF images of the profiles may be viewed with a web browser. The Geographic Information Systems (GIS) information provided here is compatible with Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) GIS software.

Louisiana↗
USGS2003

Archive of Boomer seismic reflection data: collected during USGS Cruise 96CCT01, nearshore south central South Carolina coast, June 26 - July 1, 1996

This archive consists of marine seismic reflection profile data collected in four survey areas from southeast of Charleston Harbor to the mouth of the North Edisto River of South Carolina. These data were acquired June 26 - July 1, 1996, aboard the R/V G.K. Gilbert. Included here are data in a variety of formats including binary, American Standard Code for Information Interchange (ASCII), Hyper Text Markup Language (HTML), Portable Document Format (PDF), Rich Text Format (RTF), Graphics Interchange Format (GIF) and Joint Photographic Experts Group (JPEG) images, and shapefiles. Binary data are in Society of Exploration Geophysicists (SEG) SEG-Y format and may be downloaded for further processing or display. Reference maps and GIF images of the profiles may be viewed with a web browser. The Geographic Information Systems (GIS) map documents provided were created with Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) GIS software ArcView 3.2 and 8.1.

South Carolina↗
USGS2004

Preliminary geologic map of the Big Bear City 7.5' Quadrangle, San Bernardino County, California

This data set maps and describes the geology of the Big Bear City 7.5' quadrangle, San Bernardino County, California. Created using Environmental Systems Research Institute's ARC/INFO software, the data base consists of the following items: (1) a rock-unit coverage and attribute tables (polygon and arc) containing geologic contacts, units and rock-unit labels as annotation which are also included in a separate annotation coverage, bbc_anno (2) a point coverage containing structural point data and (3) a coverage containing fold axes. In addition, the data set includes the following graphic and text products: (1) A PostScript graphic plot-file containing the geologic map, topography, cultural data, a Correlation of Map Units (CMU) diagram, a Description of Map Units (DMU), an index map, a regional geologic and structure map, and an explanation for point and line symbols; (2) PDF files of the Readme (including the metadata file as an appendix), and a screen graphic of the plot produced by the PostScript plot file. The geologic map describes a geologically complex area on the north side of the San Bernardino Mountains. Bedrock units in the Big Bear City quadrangle are dominated by (1) large Cretaceous granitic bodies ranging in composition from monzogranite to gabbro, (2) metamorphosed sedimentary rocks ranging in age from late Paleozoic to late Proterozoic, and (3) Middle Proterozoic gneiss. These rocks are complexly deformed by normal, reverse, and thrust faults, and in places are tightly folded. The geologic map database contains original U.S. Geological Survey data generated by detailed field observation and by interpretation of aerial photographs. The map data was compiled on base-stable cronoflex copies of the Big Bear City 7.5' topographic map, transferred to a scribe-guide and subsequently digitized. Lines, points, and polygons were edited at the USGS using standard ARC/INFO commands. Digitizing and editing artifacts significant enough to display at a scale of 1:24,000 were corrected. Within the database, geologic contacts are represented as lines (arcs), geologic units as polygons, and site-specific data as points. Polygon, arc, and point attribute tables (.pat, .aat, and .pat, respectively) uniquely identify each geologic datum.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2002

Digital geologic and geophysical data of Bangladesh

This CD-ROM was compiled according to the methodology developed by the U.S. Geological Survey's World Energy Project . The goal of the project was to assess the undiscovered, technically recoverable oil and gas resources of the world and report these results by the year 2000. A worldwide series of geologic maps, published on CD-ROMs, was released by the U.S. Geological Survey's World Energy Project during 1997 - 2000. Specific details of the data sources and map compilation are given in the metadata files on this CD-ROM. These maps were compiled using Environmental Systems Research Institute Inc. (ESRI) ARC/INFO software. Political boundaries and cartographic representations on this map are with permission from ESRI's ArcWorld 1:3M digital coverage: they have no political significance and are displayed as general reference only. Portions of this database covering the coastline and country boundaries contain proprietary property of ESRI. (© 1992 and 1996, Environmental Systems Research Institute Inc. All rights reserved.)

Open-File Report↗
USGS1998

Maps showing geology, oil and gas fields and geological provinces of Africa

The CD-ROM was compiled according to the methodology developed by the U.S. Geological Survey's World Energy Project . The goal of the project was to assess the undiscovered, technically recoverable oil and gas resources of the world and report these results by the year 2000. A worldwide series of geologic maps, published on CD-ROMs, was released by the U.S. Geological Survey's World Energy Project during 1997-2000. Specific details of the data sources and map compilation are given in the metadata files on this CD-ROM. These maps were compiled using Environmental Systems Research Institute Inc. (ESRI) ARC/INFO software. Political boundaries and cartographic representations on this map are shown (with permission) from ESRI's ArcWorld 1:3M digital coverage: they have no political significance and are displayed as general reference only. Portions of this database covering the coastline and country boundaries contain proprietary property of ESRI. (Copyright 1992 and 1996, Environmental Systems Research Institute Inc. All rights reserved.)

Open-File Report↗
USGS2003

Maps showing geology, oil and gas fields, and geologic provinces of the Arctic

Introduction This CD-ROM was compiled according to the methodology developed by the U.S. Geological Survey's World Energy Project . The geologic map of the Arctic was compiled and synthesized from the Circumpolar Geological Map of the Arctic, by Okulitch A.V., Lopatin B.G., and Jackson H.R., scale 1:6,000,000, published by the Geological Survey of Canada in 1989 (see References ). Specific details of the data sources are given in the metadata files on this CD-ROM. Map units were kept as close as possible to original map (more than 100 unique values). These Arctic maps were compiled using Environmental Systems Research Institute Inc. (ESRI) ARC/INFO software. Political boundaries and cartographic representations on this map are shown (with permission) from ESRI's ArcWorld 1:3M digital coverage. They have no political significance and are displayed as general reference only. Portions of this database covering the coastline, rivers and country boundaries contain proprietary property of ESRI. (© 1992 and 1996, Environmental Systems Research Institute Inc. All rights reserved. The bathymetric data were derived from the International Bathymetric Chart of the Arctic Ocean (IBCAO) which was downloaded from the NOAA web site. Oil and gas centerpoints were derived from Probe 4.0 database - proprietary property of Petroleum Information/Dwights LLC d/b/a/IHS Energy Group. Specific details of the data sources and map compilation are given in the metadata files on this CD-ROM.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2005

Statistical analysis of water-quality data containing multiple detection limits: S-language software for regression on order statistics

Trace contaminants in water, including metals and organics, often are measured at sufficiently low concentrations to be reported only as values below the instrument detection limit. Interpretation of these "less thans" is complicated when multiple detection limits occur. Statistical methods for multiply censored, or multiple-detection limit, datasets have been developed for medical and industrial statistics, and can be employed to estimate summary statistics or model the distributions of trace-level environmental data. We describe S-language-based software tools that perform robust linear regression on order statistics (ROS). The ROS method has been evaluated as one of the most reliable procedures for developing summary statistics of multiply censored data. It is applicable to any dataset that has 0 to 80% of its values censored. These tools are a part of a software library, or add-on package, for the R environment for statistical computing. This library can be used to generate ROS models and associated summary statistics, plot modeled distributions, and predict exceedance probabilities of water-quality standards. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Computers & Geosciences↗
USGS2007

Surficial sediment character of the New York-New Jersey offshore continental shelf region: A GIS compilation

Broad continental shelf regions such as the New York Bight are the product of a complex geologic history and dynamic oceanographic processes, dominated by the Holocene marine transgression (>100 m sea-level rise) following the end of the last Pleistocene ice advance ~ 20,000 years ago. The area of the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone (U.S. EEZ) territory, extending 200 nautical miles seaward from the coast, is larger than the continental U.S. and contains submerged landforms that provide a variety of natural functions and societal benefits, such as: critical habitats for fisheries, ship navigation and homeland security, and engineering activities (i.e. oil and gas platforms, pipeline and cable routes, potential wind-energy-generation sites). Some parts of the continental margins, particularly inner-continental shelf regions, also contain unconsolidated hard-mineral deposits such as sand and gravel that are regarded as potential aggregate resources to meet or augment needs not met by onshore deposits (Williams, 1992). The present distribution of surficial sediment off the northeastern United States is shaped from the deposits left by the last glaciation and reflects the cumulative effects of sediment erosion, transport, sorting, and deposition by storm and tidal processes during the Holocene rise in sea level. As a result, the sediments on the sea floor represent both an historical record of former conditions and a guide to possible future sedimentary environments. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) through the Coastal and Marine Geology Program, in cooperation with the University of Colorado and other partners, has compiled extant sediment character and textural data as well as other geologic information on the sea floor from all regions around the U.S. into the usSEABED data system (Reid and others, 2005; Buczkowski and others, 2006; Reid and others, 2006). The usSEABED system, which contains information on sediment grain size and lithology for more than 340,500 stations within the U.S. EEZ. has been developed and populated with data as part of the USGS Marine Aggregate Resources and Processes and the National Benthic Habitats projects in order to provide the base-line data needed to update the current maps of offshore surficial geologic character and sediment distribution. The maps are also used to characterize benthic sea floor environments important for marine ecosystems. U.S. Geological Survey, Data Series 118 (Reid and others, 2005), of the usSEABED data release series, represents the combined efforts of the USGS and several other government agencies to provide a unified resource for accessing and preserving records of U.S. east coast sea floor geologic information and sediment texture data. For this present report, we have chosen to focus on the New York-New Jersey region, an area that has been intensely studied by the USGS for many years to address many complex issues. This report illustrates the uses of the usSEABED database for GIS applications, while offering additional insight into the resources and data available from the USGS and its collaborative institutions. This report is based on data contained in U.S. Geological Survey Data Series 118 (Reid and others, 2005) and shows an assortment of example GIS products that are possible using usSEABED. All data are intended to be GIS-ready and should not require any additional cleanup, formatting, or renaming of fields in order to use the data in a Geographic Information System. This project employs the Environmental Systems Research Institute's (ESRI) ArcView™ software. Many of these maps were made as part of the ongoing USGS study to assess marine aggregate resources offshore New York and New Jersey, but these maps can serve many other purposes. The marine science community, educators, students and others are encouraged to use these data to generate GIS products for their own purposes. The objectives of the Marine Aggregate Resources and Processes project are to produce a series of new geologic maps and reports of the sea floor that will provide scientific insights into the character and geologic development of U.S. continental margins and to use these maps and information to assess the potential availability of offshore sand and gravel resources. The mapping and aggregate resource assessments are being conducted on a national scale using the usSEABED data base as described in Williams and others (2003). Potential uses for these data include: (1) defining the geological variability of the sea floor in relation to benthic habitat diversity; (2) improving our understanding of the processes that control the distribution and transport of bottom sediments and benthic habitats; (3) locating aggregate resources for beach nourishment and industrial applications; and (4) providing a detailed geospatial framework for future marine science research, monitoring, and management activities. The initial assessments are in progress for the New York Bight and Louisiana offshore areas.

New Jersey, New York↗
USGS1993

Wetland modeling and information needs at Stillwater National Wildlife Refuge

The marshes in and around Stillwater National Wildlife Refuge (the Refuge) are extremely dynamic; expanding and contracting in size both seasonally, due to runoff and subsequent evapotranspiration, and over longer periods, due to climatic variation. The dynamic nature of these marshes results in a diversity of wetland habitats, which support a variety of migratory birds. To maintain this wetland diversity and control the loss of migratory bird habitat in the Lahontan Valley, the Refuge was established and currently manages a complex of marsh units. However, changes in the hydrology, and changes that will occur as a result of the Fallon Paiute-Shoshone and Truckee-Carson-Pyramid Lake Water Rights Settlement Act (Public Law 101-618, 104 Stat. 3389), greatly affect the Refuge's wetland management capability. In light of these changes, and the legal requirements associated with environmental impact assessments, the Refuge convened a workshop to discuss several aspects of wetland management in the Lahontan Valley. The workshop, described in this report, had three primary objectives: 1. discuss the types and relative proportions of primary wetland habitats that should be provided as described in the settlement act; 2. discuss wetland management models that might be developed to help manage these marshes under hydrologic regimes likely in the future; and 3. discuss future information and monitoring needs, including proposals for valley-wide biodiversity surveys, which would be helpful when considering withdrawn Bureau of Reclamation (BR) lands for possible incorporation into the Refuge. Several presentations at the beginning of the workshop provided a common basis for discussing these objectives. Refuge staff provided background on the history and past management. The Nature Conservatory discussed their role in the settlement act, proposals for valley-wide biodiversity surveys, and results of a literature review for Stillwater Marsh and the Lahontan Valley (Nachlinger 1993). Kay Fowler provided an historical context of changes in vegetation and waterbird use of the marshes based on her ethnography of the local Paiute Indians (Fowler 1993). Finally, Bob Elston discussed a model that predicts archaeological sites based on environmental variables (Raven and Elston 1989). The workshop was organized by staff from the Refuge and facilitated by the authors of this report. Participants included Ron Anglin, Bill Henry, Anne Janik, Cliff Creger, Fred Paveglio, and Mary Jo Elpers of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (the Service); Jeff Baumgartner, Jan Nachlinger, Hope Humphries, and Graham Chisholm of The Nature Conservancy; David Yardas of the Environmental Defense Fund; David Robertson of Robertson Software, Inc.; Norm Saake, Terry Retterer, and Larry Neel of the Nevada Department of Wildlife; Lew Oring and Kay Fowler of the University of Nevada; and Robert Elston of Intermountain Research.

Report↗
USGS2018

Stream permanence is related to crayfish occupancy and abundance in the Ozark Highlands, USA

Crayfish use of intermittent streams is especially important to understand in the face of global climate change. We examined the influence of stream permanence and local habitat on crayfish occupancy and species densities in the Ozark Highlands, USA. We sampled in June and July 2014 and 2015. We used a quantitative kick–seine method to sample crayfish presence and abundance at 20 stream sites with 32 surveys/site in the Upper White River drainage, and we measured associated local environmental variables each year. We modeled site occupancy and detection probabilities with the software PRESENCE, and we used multiple linear regressions to identify relationships between crayfish species densities and environmental variables. Occupancy of all crayfish species was related to stream permanence. Faxonius meeki was found exclusively in intermittent streams, whereas Faxonius neglectus and Faxonius luteus had higher occupancy and detection probability in permanent than in intermittent streams, and Faxonius williamsi was associated with intermittent streams. Estimates of detection probability ranged from 0.56 to 1, which is high relative to values found by other investigators. With the exception of F. williamsi , species densities were largely related to stream permanence rather than local habitat. Species densities did not differ by year, but total crayfish densities were significantly lower in 2015 than 2014. Increased precipitation and discharge in 2015 probably led to the lower crayfish densities observed during this year. Our study demonstrates that crayfish distribution and abundance is strongly influenced by stream permanence. Some species, including those of conservation concern (i.e., F. williamsi , F. meeki ), appear dependent on intermittent streams, and conservation efforts should include consideration of intermittent streams as an important component of freshwater biodiversity.

Arkansas, Missouri↗
USGS2020

Time-series model, statistical methods, and software documentation for R–QWTREND—An R package for analyzing trends in stream-water quality

As part of a U.S. Geological Survey water-quality study started in 2018, in cooperation with the International Joint Commission, North Dakota Department of Environmental Quality, and Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, a publicly available software package called R–QWTREND was developed for analyzing trends in stream-water quality. The R–QWTREND package is a collection of functions written in R, an open source language and a general environment for statistical computing and graphics. The package uses a parametric time-series model to express logarithmically transformed concentration in terms of flow-related variability, trend, and serially correlated model errors. Flow-related variability captures natural variability in concentration on the basis of concurrent and antecedent streamflow. The trend identifies systematic changes in concentration in terms of potential step trends, piecewise monotonic trends, or user-specified trends. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate model parameters and determine the best-fit trend model. This report describes the time-series model and statistical methodology behind R–QWTREND and provides formal documentation for installing and using the package.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2013

Developing and implementing the use of predictive models for estimating water quality at Great Lakes beaches

Predictive models have been used at beaches to improve the timeliness and accuracy of recreational water-quality assessments over the most common current approach to water-quality monitoring, which relies on culturing fecal-indicator bacteria such as Escherichia coli (E. coli.) . Beach-specific predictive models use environmental and water-quality variables that are easily and quickly measured as surrogates to estimate concentrations of fecal-indicator bacteria or to provide the probability that a State recreational water-quality standard will be exceeded. When predictive models are used for beach closure or advisory decisions, they are referred to as “nowcasts.” During the recreational seasons of 2010-12, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with 23 local and State agencies, worked to improve existing nowcasts at 4 beaches, validate predictive models at another 38 beaches, and collect data for predictive-model development at 7 beaches throughout the Great Lakes. This report summarizes efforts to collect data and develop predictive models by multiple agencies and to compile existing information on the beaches and beach-monitoring programs into one comprehensive report. Local agencies measured E. coli concentrations and variables expected to affect E. coli concentrations such as wave height, turbidity, water temperature, and numbers of birds at the time of sampling. In addition to these field measurements, equipment was installed by the USGS or local agencies at or near several beaches to collect water-quality and metrological measurements in near real time, including nearshore buoys, weather stations, and tributary staff gages and monitors. The USGS worked with local agencies to retrieve data from existing sources either manually or by use of tools designed specifically to compile and process data for predictive-model development. Predictive models were developed by use of linear regression and (or) partial least squares techniques for 42 beaches that had at least 2 years of data (2010-11 and sometimes earlier) and for 1 beach that had 1 year of data. For most models, software designed for model development by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (Virtual Beach) was used. The selected model for each beach was based on a combination of explanatory variables including, most commonly, turbidity, day of the year, change in lake level over 24 hours, wave height, wind direction and speed, and antecedent rainfall for various time periods. Forty-two predictive models were validated against data collected during an independent year (2012) and compared to the current method for assessing recreational water quality-using the previous day’s E. coli concentration (persistence model). Goals for good predictive-model performance were responses that were at least 5 percent greater than the persistence model and overall correct responses greater than or equal to 80 percent, sensitivities (percentage of exceedances of the bathing-water standard that were correctly predicted by the model) greater than or equal to 50 percent, and specificities (percentage of nonexceedances correctly predicted by the model) greater than or equal to 85 percent. Out of 42 predictive models, 24 models yielded over-all correct responses that were at least 5 percent greater than the use of the persistence model. Predictive-model responses met the performance goals more often than the persistence-model responses in terms of overall correctness (28 versus 17 models, respectively), sensitivity (17 versus 4 models), and specificity (34 versus 25 models). Gaining knowledge of each beach and the factors that affect E. coli concentrations is important for developing good predictive models. Collection of additional years of data with a wide range of environmental conditions may also help to improve future model performance. The USGS will continue to work with local agencies in 2013 and beyond to develop and validate predictive models at beaches and improve existing nowcasts, restructuring monitoring activities to accommodate future uncertainties in funding and resources.

Great Lakes↗
USGS1988

Federal microcomputer software for urban hydrology

The purpose of this paper is to describe the development, availability, and general use of selected urban hydrology microcomputer software developed by: U.S. Soil Conservation Service (SCS); U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC); U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA); and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The discussion is limited to software used for design and planning for urban stormwater flows.

Conference Paper↗