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Economic, land use, and ecosystem services impacts of Rwanda's Green Growth Strategy: An application of the IEEM+ESM platform

We develop and link the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling (IEEM) Platform to ecosystem services modeling (ESM). The IEEM+ESM Platform is an innovative decision-making framework for exploring complex public policy goals and elucidating synergies and trade-offs between alternative policy portfolios. The IEEM+ESM approach is powerful in its ability to shed light on (i) change in land use and ecosystem services driven by public policy and the supply and demand responses of businesses and households; and (ii) impacts on standard economic indicators of concern to Ministries of Finance such as gross domestic product and employment, as well as changes in wealth and ecosystem services. The IEEM+ESM approach is being adopted rapidly and by the end of 2020, IEEM+ESM Platforms will be implemented for about 25 countries. To demonstrate the insights generated by the IEEM+ESM approach, we apply it to the analysis of alternative green growth strategies in Rwanda, a country that has made strong progress in reducing poverty and enhancing economic growth in the last 15 years. The case of Rwanda is particularly compelling as it faces intense pressure on its natural capital base and ecosystem services, already with the highest population density in Africa, which is projected to double by 2050. In applying IEEM+ESM and comparing the outcomes of Rwanda’s green growth policies, increasing fertilization of agricultural crops shows the largest economic gains but also trade-offs in environmental quality reflected through higher nutrient export and reduced water quality. Combining crop fertilization with forest plantations better balances critical ecosystem services and their role in underpinning economic development as Rwanda progresses toward its target of middle-income status by 2035. This application to Rwanda’s green growth strategy demonstrates the value-added of the IEEM+ESM approach in generating results that speak to both economic outcomes and impacts on market and non-market ecosystem services.

Science of the Total Environment

Environmental impact of oil development in northern Alaska

It is reported that in the spring of 1969 a high official of one of the oil companies was flying over the area of oil development in the vicinity of Prudhoe Bay. He is quoted as saying "If the American people could see what we are doing to their land here, they would want to abolish the use of the reciprocating engine." The last really large area of wilderness in the United States is the' Brooks Range and the Arctic Coastal Plain which stretches from that range to the Arctic Ocean. The proving of the exploratory oil wells which have been drilled on the coastal plain in the vicinity of Prudhoe Bay makes it virtually certain that this heretofore mostly unknown country will rapidly and vigorously be exposed to a variety of changes caused by the influx of men and their equipment. Even within the first four months of 1969 the whole aspect of the central part of the region has been importantly changed by the drilling programs of several large oil companies. So suddenly was this change brought about that no long-range plans have been developed either to soften the effect of such development on the natural environment or even to record the progress of these effects. Yet the absence of a plan provides an inadvertent potential advantage in that there has' been no history of increasingly firm Federal policy which, in other places, has often made it difficult to take newly conceived action in line with the increasing societal interest in environmental preservation. The lack of firm Federal policy provides here a unique opportunity for the application of new rules and investigative techniques aimed at minimizing the adverse effects on the environment while5.at the same time, not unduly hindering the development of the natural resources. But the speed with which the changes are being wrought makes it imperative that the principles applicable here to environmental protection or preservation, be enunciated immediately and that from these principles flow farsighted regulations which reflect the new interest in combining resource development with environmental protection. The present report constitutes a brief summary of the conditions existing in northern Alaska in the spring of 1969, presenting some inferences on the environmental changes which can be expected in the future and offering some specific steps which, if taken immediately and positively, could greatly ameliorate the adverse effects of rapid development in the absence of positive steps for environmental protection. In that regard, then, this report is ephemeral in character because the conditions in northern Alaska will surely change with great rapidity. Considering the"fragility and sensitivity of the ecosystems existing there, the changes can be both harsh and permanent. Therefore, whatever value lies in the recommendations made here., the results of their application will depend on the promptness of their consideration, amendment, and application. Whatever form the actions might take for minimizing the harm to the environment, the urgency of the matter can hardly be overestimated.

Alaska

Changes in Selected Metals Concentrations from the Mid-1980s to the Mid-2000s in a Stream Draining the Picher Mining District of Oklahoma

After abandonment in the late 1960s, the Picher mining district of Oklahoma, once the largest source of lead and zinc in the world, continued to be affected by severe environmental degradation, with scattered subsidence and abundant toxic metals such as cadmium and lead seeping from flooded underground mine workings and seeping and running off from as much as 60 million tons of mine tailings remaining at the land surface. Water-quality data collected during the mid-1980s and the mid-2000s at the Tar Creek at 22nd Street Bridge in Miami, Oklahoma streamflow-gaging station (USGS number 07185095), located downstream from much of the district, indicate that total concentrations of iron, manganese, and zinc significantly decreased between the two sampling periods. Those water-quality improvements probably are due to a combination of reclamation activities and natural attenuation processes such as stabilization of exposed minerals in flooded underground mine workings, progressive wind and water erosion of the most readily erodible metalliferous particles from tailings, and colonization of volunteer plants that reduce physical erosion of soils and tailings.

Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma

Interacting effects of human presence and landscape modification on birds and mammals

Sustainable human–wildlife coexistence requires a mechanistic understanding of the many ways that humans affect animals. However, progress is hampered by the lack of accessible data measuring the dynamic presence of people. Here, we leverage mobile-device data to disentangle how human presence and landscape modification differentially influence the use of geographic and environmental space for 37 mammal and bird species across the United States. Human presence affected more than 65% of species, with substantial variation across species. For ~60% of species that responded to human activities, the effects were interdependent—animals tended to react more strongly to human presence in less modified habitats. Our results demonstrate that human presence and landscape modification have complex combined effects on wildlife, which need to be considered for effective management.

Science

Limits to benthic feeding by eiders in a vital Arctic migration corridor due to localized prey and changing sea ice

Four species of threatened or declining eider ducks that nest in the Arctic migrate through the northeast Chukchi Sea, where anticipated industrial development may require prioritizing areas for conservation. In this nearshore corridor (10–40 m depth), the eiders’ access to benthic prey during the spring is restricted to variable areas of open water within sea ice. For the most abundant species, the king eider ( Somateria spectabilis ), stable isotopes in blood cells, muscle, and potential prey indicate that these eiders ate mainly bivalves when traversing this corridor. Bivalves there were much smaller than the same taxa in deeper areas of the northern Bering Sea, possibly due to higher mortality rates caused by ice scour in shallow water; future decrease in seasonal duration of fast ice may increase this effect. Computer simulations suggested that if these eiders forage for >15 h/day, they can feed profitably at bivalve densities >200 m −2 regardless of water depth or availability of ice for resting. Sampling in 2010–2012 showed that large areas of profitable prey densities occurred only in certain locations throughout the migration corridor. Satellite data in April–May over 13 years (2001–2013) indicated that access to major feeding areas through sea ice in different segments of the corridor can vary from 0% to 100% between months and years. In a warming and increasingly variable climate, unpredictability of access may be enhanced by greater effects of shifting winds on unconsolidated ice. Our results indicate the importance of having a range of potential feeding areas throughout the migration corridor to ensure prey availability in all years. Spatial planning of nearshore industrial development in the Arctic, including commercial shipping, pipeline construction, and the risk of released oil, should consider these effects of high environmental variability on the adequacy of habitats targeted for conservation.

Alaska

Critical review: Grand challenges in assessing the adverse effects of contaminants of emerging concern on aquatic food webs

Much progress has been made in the past few decades in understanding the sources, transport, fate, and biological effects of contaminants of emerging concern (CECs) in aquatic ecosystems. Despite these advancements, significant obstacles still prevent comprehensive assessments of the environmental risks associated with the presence of CECs. Many of these obstacles center around the extrapolation of effects of single chemicals observed in the laboratory or effects found in individual organisms or species in the field to impacts of multiple stressors on aquatic food webs. In the present review, we identify 5 challenges that must be addressed to promote studies of CECs from singular exposure events to multispecies aquatic food web interactions. There needs to be: 1) more detailed information on the complexity of mixtures of CECs in the aquatic environment, 2) a greater understanding of the sublethal effects of CECs on a wide range of aquatic organisms, 3) an ascertaining of the biological consequences of variable duration CEC exposures within and across generations in aquatic species, 4) a linkage of multiple stressors with CEC exposure in aquatic systems, and 5) a documenting of the trophic consequences of CEC exposure across aquatic food webs. We examine the current literature to show how these challenges can be addressed to fill knowledge gaps.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry

Ecological Investigations of the Federally Endangered Shivwits Milk-Vetch (Astragalus ampullarioides)--2006 Annual Report

Astragalus ampullarioides (Welsh) Welsh, the Shivwits milk-vetch, is an herbaceous perennial legume that was listed as federally endangered in September 2001. Known populations of this edaphic endemic species are restricted to Washington County, Utah, with the majority of occurrences found on gently sloping outcrops of the Triassic Petrified Forest Member of the Chinle Formation at the edge of the Mojave Desert. At the time of listing in 2001, surveys estimated a total of 1000 individuals for the species. In April-May 2006, surveys estimated approximately 4205 individuals distributed among six populations. Of the total number of individuals estimated in spring 2006, over 75 percent were distributed among three subpopulations in Zion National Park and approximately 60 percent occurred at a single 0.3-ha site in the Park. In addition to small population sizes and limited geographic distributions, the species is threatened to varying degrees by urbanization, livestock grazing, off-road vehicle use, and invasive exotic plants. In April 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) initiated ecological investigations of the Shivwits milk-vetch to support conservation management and recovery of the species by the National Park Service (NPS; Zion National Park), the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), the Shivwits Band of the Paiute Tribe, and other cooperators such as The Nature Conservancy of Utah (TNC). To date, funding for this research has been provided by the Southwest Biological Science Center of the USGS Biological Resources Discipline, the USGS-NPS Park-Oriented Biological Support Project, and the Earth Surface Dynamics Program of the USGS Geologic Discipline. Additional logistical support has been provided by the Bureau of Land Management, Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument. General objectives of this research are (1) to develop a better understanding of species-environment relations to support habitat modelling, future surveys for additional recovery populations, and potential efforts to establish new recovery populations; and (2) to evaluate effects of invasive exotic plants on habitat conditions and measures of milk-vetch performance. Specific objectives are to: Describe the distribution and abundance of milk-vetch populations and associated invasive exotic plant species within and outside of Zion National Park (Zion NP) in relation to geologic / geomorphic setting, soil properties, and plant community composition. In a field setting in Zion NP, conduct experiments to evaluate effects of invasive exotic plants on reproductive output and seedling establishment of A. ampullarioides across a gradient of exotic species biomass. Conduct greenhouse studies and analyze soils to evaluate effects of invasive exotic plants on soil biological properties (including mycorrhizal inocculation potential) that affect cycling and plant uptake of essential mineral nutrients. Based on environmental characteristics of known population locations, use Geographic Information System (GIS) tools to prepare a predictive habitat model that can be used to guide future surveys and efforts to evaluate sites for reintroduction efforts. This report describes 2006 progress and future plans for achieving these four objectives.

Open-File Report

Geochemical Survey of Missouri: Plans and progress for sixth six-month period (January-June 1972)

This is the sixth in a series of reports issued at six-month intervals describing current results of a reconnaissance geochemical survey of the State of Missouri. The survey was begun in July, 1969 and is intended primarily to provide epidemiologists of the Environmental Health Surveillance Center of the University of Missouri with geochemical information in support of their studies on the role of environmental factors underlying human and animal health. Secondarily, the survey is regarded as a pilot venture in the area of environmental geochemistry of large and geologically diverse regions.

Missouri

An index of reservoir habitat impairment

Fish habitat impairment resulting from natural and anthropogenic watershed and in-lake processes has in many cases reduced the ability of reservoirs to sustain native fish assemblages and fisheries quality. Rehabilitation of impaired reservoirs is hindered by the lack of a method suitable for scoring impairment status. To address this limitation, an index of reservoir habitat impairment (IRHI) was developed by merging 14 metrics descriptive of common impairment sources, with each metric scored from 0 (no impairment) to 5 (high impairment) by fisheries scientists with local knowledge. With a plausible range of 5 to 25, distribution of the IRHI scores ranged from 5 to 23 over 482 randomly selected reservoirs dispersed throughout the USA. The IRHI reflected five impairment factors including siltation, structural habitat, eutrophication, water regime, and aquatic plants. The factors were weakly related to key reservoir characteristics including reservoir area, depth, age, and usetype, suggesting that common reservoir descriptors are poor predictors of fish habitat impairment. The IRHI is rapid and inexpensive to calculate, provides an easily understood measure of the overall habitat impairment, allows comparison of reservoirs and therefore prioritization of restoration activities, and may be used to track restoration progress. The major limitation of the IRHI is its reliance on unstandardized professional judgment rather than standardized empirical measurements. ?? 2010 US Government.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment

Nitrogen isotopes as indicators of NOx source contributions to atmospheric nitrate deposition across the midwestern and northeastern United States

Global inputs of NO x are dominated by fossil fuel combustion from both stationary and vehicular sources and far exceed natural NO x sources. However, elucidating NO x sources to any given location remains a difficult challenge, despite the need for this information to develop sound regulatory and mitigation strategies. We present results from a regional-scale study of nitrogen isotopes (δ 15 N) in wet nitrate deposition across 33 sites in the midwestern and northeastern U.S. We demonstrate that spatial variations in δ 15 N are strongly correlated with NO x emissions from surrounding stationary sources and additionally that δ 15 N is more strongly correlated with surrounding stationary source NO x emissions than pH, SO 4 2- , or NO 3 - concentrations. Although emission inventories indicate that vehicle emissions are the dominant NO x source in the eastern U.S., our results suggest that wet NO 3 - deposition at sites in this study is strongly associated with NO x emissions from stationary sources. This suggests that large areas of the landscape potentially receive atmospheric NO y deposition inputs in excess of what one would infer from existing monitoring data alone. Moreover, we determined that spatial patterns in δ 15 N values are a robust indicator of stationary NO x contributions to wet NO 3 - deposition and hence a valuable complement to existing tools for assessing relationships between NO 3 - deposition, regional emission inventories, and for evaluating progress toward NO x reduction goals.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire,

Melanoma and other melanistic lesions in brown bullhead Ameiurus nebulosus from waterbodies in the northeastern United States and Canada: Identification of risk factors

Melanistic lesions, including non-raised black areas due to proliferations of melanocytes and melanomacrophages in the dermis and epidermis, as well as raised black areas consistent with melanoma, are described in brown bullhead (BBH) Ameiurus nebulosus from three water bodies in the northeastern United States and Quebec, Canada. First observed in the Vermont portion of Lake Memphremagog, Vermont, USA and Quebec, Canada, the prevalence of melanistic lesions during 2014–2020 was greater than 30% in BBH 200 mm and longer. In 2023, seven sites throughout the lake were assessed, and prevalence ranged from 18% to 42%. In Hermon Pond, Maine, the prevalence was 29% in 2024, and in Village Pond, New Hampshire, lesions occurred in 22% of BBH in 2025. Compared to skin from visibly normal BBH, skin with melanistic lesions had significantly higher concentrations of seven metals, including arsenic, a known carcinogen and zinc. Lesions associated with oxidative damage, such as the accumulation of ceroid/lipofuscin, were also observed in the gill, spleen and kidney tissue of both affected and visibly normal BBH. The progression of lesions, observed by histopathology, ranged from inflammation, signs of oxidative damage, proliferation and necrosis of club cells, and the presence of melanomacrophages and melanocytes in the epidermis to invasive melanoma and suggests chronic exposure of BBH to environmental initiators and promoters of carcinogenesis.

New Hampshire, New York, Quebec, Vermont

White perch health relative to urbanization and habitat degradation in Chesapeake Bay tributaries. II. Hepatic and splenic macrophage aggregates

Macrophage aggregate (MA) abundance in fish is a useful general biomarker of contaminant exposures and environmental stress. Hepatic and splenic MAs were evaluated in semi-anadromous white perch Morone americana (Gmelin, 1789) from the urbanized Severn River (S) and the more rural Choptank River (C), Chesapeake Bay. Fish were collected from different sites in the annual migratory circuit in each river that corresponded to active spawning in late winter-early spring, summer regenerating, autumn developing, and winter spawning-capable phases. An age-associated progressive increase in the total volume of MAs (MAV) was evident in the liver and spleen. Mean hepatic MAV (range in seasonal means, C: 6.4-23.1 mm 3 ; S: 15.7-48.7 mm 3 ) and mean splenic MAV (C: 7.3-12.6 mm 3 ; S: 16.0-33.0 mm 3 ) differed significantly among seasons and were significantly greater in females and in Severn River fish. Age and river were the most influential factors, suggesting that increased MAV in Severn River fish resulted from chronic exposures to higher concentrations of environmental contaminants. Hepatic MAV was directly related to the relative volume of copper granules in the liver. Less influential factors on splenic MAV included fish condition, trematode infections, and granulomas, indicating possible functional differences in MAs by organ. While organ volumes were strongly linked to gonadosomatic index (GSI) and reproductive phase, the reason for seasonal differences in MAV was less clear. Water temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen were not significantly related to MAV, and indicators of reproductive phase (hepatosomatic index and GSI) were significant but less important in explaining variation in MAV.

Chesapeake Bay watershed

Lake trout rehabilitation in Lake Erie: a case history

Native lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) once thrived in the deep waters of eastern Lake Erie. The impact of nearly 70 years of unregulated exploitation and over 100 years of progressively severe cultural eutrophication resulted in the elimination of lake trout stocks by 1950. Early attempts to restore lake trout by stocking were unsuccessful in establishing a self-sustaining population. In the early 1980s, New York's Department of Environmental Conservation, Pennsylvania's Fish and Boat Commission, and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service entered into a cooperative program to rehabilitate lake trout in the eastern basin of Lake Erie. After 11 years of stocking selected strains of lake trout in U.S. waters, followed by effective sea lamprey control, lake trout appear to be successfully recolonizing their native habitat. Adult stocks have built up significantly and are expanding their range in the lake. Preliminary investigations suggest that lake trout reproductive habitat is still adequate for natural reproduction, but natural recruitment has not been documented. Future assessments will be directed toward evaluation of spawning success and tracking age-class cohorts as they move through the fishery.

Journal of Great Lakes Research

The importance of peripheral populations in the face of novel environmental change

Anthropogenically driven environmental change has imposed substantial threats on biodiversity, including the emergence of infectious diseases that have resulted in declines of wildlife globally. In response to pathogen invasion, maintaining diversity within host populations across heterogenous environments is essential to facilitating species persistence. White-nose syndrome is an emerging fungal pathogen that has caused mass mortalities of hibernating bats across North America. However, in the northeast, peripheral island populations of the endangered northern myotis ( Myotis septentrionalis ) appear to be persisting despite infection while mainland populations in the core of the species range have experienced sharp declines. Thus, this study investigated host and environmental factors that may contribute to divergent population responses. We compared patterns of pathogen exposure and infection intensity between populations and documented the environmental conditions and host activity patterns that may promote survival despite disease invasion. For island populations, we found lower prevalence and less severe infections, possibly due to a shorter hibernation duration compared to the mainland, which may reduce the time for disease progression. The coastal region of the northern myotis range may serve as habitat refugia that enables this species to persist despite pathogen exposure; however, conservation efforts could be critical to supporting species survival in the long term.

Proceedings of the Royal Society B, Biological Sci

Great Lakes restoration success through science: U.S. Geological Survey accomplishments 2010 through 2013

The Great Lakes (Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie, and Ontario) are the largest group of freshwater lakes on Earth and serve as an important source of drinking water, transportation, power, and recreational opportunities for the United States and Canada. They also support an abundant commercial and recreational fishery, are crucial for agriculture, and are essential to the economic vitality of the region. The Great Lakes support a wealth of biological diversity, including over 200 globally rare plants and animals and more than 40 species that are found nowhere else in the world. However, more than a century of environmental degradation has taken a substantial toll on the Great Lakes. To stimulate and promote the goal of a healthy Great Lakes region, President Obama and Congress created the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) in 2009. The GLRI is an interagency collaboration that seeks to address the most significant environmental problems in the Great Lakes ecosystem. The GLRI is composed of five focus areas that address these issues: Cleaning up toxic substances and Areas of Concern, Preventing and controlling invasive species, Promoting nearshore health, Protecting and restoring habitat and wildlife, Tracking progress and working with partners. As of August 2013, the GLRI had funded more than 1,500 projects and programs of the highest priority to meet immediate cleanup, restoration, and protection needs. These projects use scientific analyses as the basis for identifying the restoration needs and priorities for the GLRI. Results from the science, monitoring, and other on-the-ground actions by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provide the scientific information needed to help guide the Great Lakes restoration efforts. This document highlights a selection of USGS projects for each of the five focus areas through 2013, demonstrating the importance of science for restoration success. Additional information for these and other USGS projects that are important for Great Lakes restoration is available at http://cida.usgs.gov/glri/glri-catalog/ .

Great Lakes

Progress report: Radionuclide transport in the Pasco to Vancouver, Washington, reach of the Columbia River, July 1962 to September 1963

The disposition of radionuclides in and along the 380-mile reach of the Columbia River between the Hanford, Wash., Atomic Energy Commission reactors (the major radionuclide source) and the head of the estuary is a first step in understanding the environmental cycling and ultimate fate of the discharged radioactive materials. Preliminary results for the study period, July 1962 to September 1963, are presented for radionuclide, sediment, and water data from stations on the Columbia River and from stations near the mouths of the Snake River, the Willamette River, and other Columbia River tributaries.

Oregon, Washington

Diet composition and provisioning rates of nestlings determine reproductive success in a subtropical seabird

Understanding how both quality and quantity of prey affect the population dynamics of marine predators is a crucial step toward predicting the effects of environmental perturbations on population-level processes. The Junk Food Hypothesis, which posits that energetic content of prey species may influence reproductive capacity of marine top predators regardless of prey availability, has been proposed as a mechanism by which changes in prey populations could affect predator populations in high latitude systems; however, support for this hypothesis has been inconsistent across studies, and further data are needed to elucidate variation in the relative importance of prey quantity and quality, both among predator species and across ecological systems. We tested the relative importance of prey quantity and quality to nestling survival in the eastern brown pelican Pelecanus occidentalis carolinensis across 9 breeding colonies in the northern Gulf of Mexico that varied in underlying availability of a key prey resource, the Gulf menhaden Brevoortia patronus . Both feeding frequency and meal mass were significantly correlated to energy provisioning rates and nestling survival, while energy density of meals had little effect on either metric. Compared to previous results from cold-water systems, we found lower and less variable energy densities (4.4 kJ g -1 , vs. 5.2 to 6.5 kJ g -1 in other studies) and lipid content (9% dry mass, vs. 16 to 23% in other studies) of common prey items. While Gulf menhaden was the most common prey species at all colonies, the proportion of menhaden fed to nestlings varied and was not strongly correlated to fledging success. We conclude that quantity rather than quality of prey, particularly small schooling fish, is the main driver of brown pelican reproductive success in this system, and that environmental perturbations affecting biomass, distribution, and abundance of forage fish could substantially affect brown pelican reproductive success.

Gulf of Mexico

Factors Affecting Groundwater Quality Used for Domestic Supply in Marcellus Shale Region of North-Central and North-East Pennsylvania, USA

Factors affecting groundwater quality used for domestic supply within the Marcellus Shale footprint in north-central and north-east Pennsylvania are identified using a combination of spatial, statistical, and geochemical modeling. Untreated groundwater, sampled during 2011–2017 from 472 domestic wells within the study area, exhibited wide ranges in pH (4.5–9.3), total dissolved solids (TDS, 22–1960 mg/L), sodium (0.3–760 mg/L), chloride (0.3–1020 mg/L), bromide (<0.01–8.6 mg/L), and methane (<0.001–77 mg/L). The wells had depths ranging from 10 to 394 m; 69.5 percent were completed in sandstone bedrock, 19.3 percent in shale, 4.2 percent in siltstone, 4 percent in carbonate, and 3 percent in unconsolidated alluvial or glacial deposits. Groundwater quality in the Delaware River watershed, in the eastern part of the study area where Marcellus gas has not been developed, was similar to that in the Susquehanna, Allegheny, and Genesee River watersheds in the western part of the study area where natural gas production from Marcellus Shale has been ongoing since 2008. Most groundwaters were calcium/bicarbonate type with near-neutral pH; approximately 10 percent were sodium/bicarbonate and 1 percent were sodium/chloride types. Sodium-enriched waters, which were mostly from shale and siltstone aquifers, had the greatest frequency of elevated pH (>8.5) and elevated concentrations of TDS (>250 mg/L), bromide (>0.15 mg/L), methane (>7.0 mg/L), and lithium (>60 μg/L). Geochemical models indicate these characteristics could result from progressive mineral dissolution combined with cation exchange, plus mixing with locally important salinity sources, including as much as 0.7 percent Appalachian Basin brine and/or road-deicing salt. Multivariate correlation models suggest the observed variability in methane concentrations may be attributed to several environmental factors, such as geochemical evolution along groundwater flow paths, redox conditions, and/or mixing with saline groundwater or brine. Most samples having elevated methane were from shale aquifers, which were mainly in the Susquehanna River basin and had the greatest density of gas wells compared to other lithologies . Samples having elevated methane were also observed in the Delaware River watershed and other areas outside gas development. Isotopic compositions of methane for a subset of 39 samples (selected because of elevated methane) and relatively high ratios of methane to ethane in those samples indicated methane could be derived from microbial gas mixed with thermogenic gas that may have undergone degradation and/or fractionation during migration. The methods used in this study could be broadly applicable to understanding major factors affecting groundwater quality, particularly for explaining variations in ionic composition with pH and identifying sources of salinity and associated constituents (e.g. sodium, chloride, bromide, lithium, methane) that may have geogenic or anthropogenic origins.

Pennsylvania