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At least 127 records · Page 7Linked to original sources
USGS2018

GSFLOW-GRASS v1.0.0: GIS-enabled hydrologic modeling of coupled groundwater–surface-water systems

The importance of water moving between the atmosphere and aquifers has led to efforts to develop and maintain coupled models of surface water and groundwater. However, developing inputs to these models is usually time-consuming and requires extensive knowledge of software engineering, often prohibiting their use by many researchers and water managers, thus reducing these models' potential to promote science-driven decision-making in an era of global change and increasing water resource stress. In response to this need, we have developed GSFLOW–GRASS, a bundled set of open-source tools that develops inputs for, executes, and graphically displays the results of GSFLOW, the U.S. Geological Survey's coupled groundwater and surface-water flow model. In order to create a robust tool that can be widely implemented over diverse hydro(geo)logic settings, we built a series of GRASS GIS extensions that automatically discretizes a topological surface-water flow network that is linked with an underlying gridded groundwater domain. As inputs, GSFLOW–GRASS requires at a minimum a digital elevation model, a precipitation and temperature record, and estimates of channel parameters and hydraulic conductivity. We demonstrate the broad applicability of the toolbox by successfully testing it in environments with varying degrees of drainage integration, landscape relief, and grid resolution, as well as the presence of irregular coastal boundaries. These examples also show how GSFLOW–GRASS can be implemented to examine the role of groundwater–surface-water interactions in a diverse range of water resource and land management applications.

Geoscientific Model Development↗
USGS2011

Risk management in a large-scale CO2 geosequestration pilot project, Illinois, USA

Like most large-scale infrastructure projects, carbon dioxide (CO 2) geological sequestration (GS) projects have multiple success criteria and multiple stakeholders. In this context "risk evaluation" encompasses multiple scales. Yet a risk management program aims to maximize the chance of project success by assessing, monitoring, minimizing all risks in a consistent framework. The 150,000-km2 Illinois Basin underlies much of the state of Illinois, USA, and parts of adjacent Kentucky and Indiana. Its potential for CO2 storage is first-rate among basins in North America, an impression that has been strengthened by early testing of the injection well of the Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium's (MGSC's) Phase III large scale demonstration project, the Illinois Basin - Decatur Project (IBDP). The IBDP, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), represents a key trial of GS technologies and project-management techniques. Though risks are specific to each site and project, IBDP risk management methodologies provide valuable experience for future GS projects. IBDP views risk as the potential for negative impact to any of these five values: health and safety, environment, financial, advancing the viability and public acceptability of a GS industry, and research. Research goals include monitoring one million metric tonnes of injected CO2 in the subsurface. Risk management responds to the ways in which any values are at risk: for example, monitoring is designed to reduce uncertainties in parameter values that are important for research and system control, and is also designed to provide public assurance. Identified risks are the primary basis for risk-reduction measures: risks linked to uncertainty in geologic parameters guide further characterization work and guide simulations applied to performance evaluation. Formally, industry defines risk (more precisely risk criticality) as the product L*S, the Likelihood multiplied by the Severity of negative impact. L and S are each evaluated on five-point scales, yielding a theoretical spread in risk values of 1 through 25. So defined, these judgment-based values are categorical and ordinal - they do not represent physically measurable quantities, but are nonetheless useful for comparison and therefore decision support. The "risk entities" first evaluated are FEPs - conceptual Features, Events, and Processes based on the list published by Quintessa Ltd. After concrete scenarios are generated based on selected FEPs, scenarios become the critical entities whose associated risks are evaluated and tracked. In IBDP workshops, L and S values for 123 FEPs were generated through expert elicitation. About 30 experts in the project or in GS in general were assigned among six facilitated working groups, and each group was charged to envision risks within a sphere of project operations. Working groups covered FEPs with strong spatial characteristics - such as those related to the injection wellbore and simulated plume footprint - and "nonspatial" FEPs related to finance, regulations, legal, and stakeholder issues. Within these working groups, experts shared information, examined assumptions, refined and extended the FEP list, calibrated responses, and provided initial L and S values by consensus. Individual rankings were collected in a follow-up process via emailed spreadsheets. For each of L and S, three values were collected: Lower Bound, Best Guess, and Upper Bound. The Lower-Upper Bound ranges and the spreads among experts can be interpreted to yield rough confidence measures. Based on experts' responses, FEPs were ranked in terms of their L*S risk levels. FEP rankings were determined from individual (not consensus or averaged) results, thus no high-risk responses were damped out. The higher-risk FEPs were used to generate one or more concrete, well defined risk-bearing scenarios for each FEP. Any FEP scored by any expert as having associated risk of

Conference Paper↗
USGS2023

Environmental factors influencing detection efficiency of an acoustic telemetry array and consequences for data interpretation

Background Acoustic telemetry is a commonly used technology to monitor animal occupancy and infer movement in aquatic environments. The information that acoustic telemetry provides is vital for spatial planning and management decisions concerning aquatic and coastal environments by characterizing behaviors and habitats such as spawning aggregations, migrations, corridors, and nurseries, among others. However, performance of acoustic telemetry equipment and resulting detection ranges and efficiencies can vary as a function of environmental conditions, leading to potentially biased interpretations of telemetry data. Here, we characterize variation in detection performance using an acoustic telemetry receiver array deployed in Wellfleet Harbor, Massachusetts, USA from 2015 to 2017. The array was designed to study benthic invertebrate movements and provided an in situ opportunity to identify factors driving variation in detection probability. Results The near-shore location proximate to environmental monitoring allowed for a detailed examination of factors influencing detection efficiency in a range-testing experiment. Detection ranges varied from < 50 to 1,500 m and efficiencies varied from 0 to 100% within those detection ranges. Detection efficiency was affected by distance, wind speed and direction, wave height and direction, water temperature, water depth, and water quality. Conclusions Performance of acoustic telemetry systems is strongly contingent on environmental conditions. Our study found that wind, waves, water temperature, water quality, and depth all affected performance to an extent that could seriously compromise a study if these effects were not taken into consideration. Other unmeasured factors may also be important, depending on the characteristics of each site. This information can help guide future telemetry study designs by helping researchers anticipate the density of receivers required to achieve study objectives. Researchers can further refine and document the reliability of their data by incorporating continuously deployed range-testing tags and prior knowledge on varying detection efficiency into movement and occupancy models.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2009

Coastal sensitivity to sea level rise— A focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region

This Synthesis and Assessment Product (SAP), developed as part of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, examines potential effects of sea-level rise from climate change during the twenty-first century, with a focus on the mid-Atlantic coast of the United States. Using scientific literature and policy-related documents, the SAP describes the physical environments; potential changes to coastal environments, wetlands, and vulnerable species; societal impacts and implications of sea-level rise; decisions that may be sensitive to sea-level rise; opportunities for adaptation; and institutional barriers to adaptation. The SAP also outlines the policy context in the mid-Atlantic region and describes the implications of sea-level rise impacts for other regions of the United States. Finally, this SAP discusses ways natural and social science research can improve understanding and prediction of potential impacts to aid planning and decision making. Projections of sea-level rise for the twenty-first century vary widely, ranging from several centimeters to more than a meter. Rising sea level can inundate low areas and increase flooding, coastal erosion, wetland loss, and saltwater intrusion into estuaries and freshwater aquifers. Existing elevation data for the mid-Atlantic United States do not provide the degree of confidence needed for local decision making. Systematic nationwide collection of high-resolution elevation data would improve the ability to conduct detailed assessments in support of planning. The coastal zone is dynamic and the response of coastal areas to sea-level rise is more complex than simple inundation. Much of the United States consists of coastal environments and landforms such as barrier islands and wetlands that will respond to sea-level rise by changing shape, size, or position. The combined effects of sea-level rise and other climate change factors such as storms may cause rapid and irreversible coastal change. All these changes will affect coastal habitats and species. Increasing population and development in coastal areas also affects the ability of natural ecosystems to adjust to sea-level rise. Coastal communities and property owners have responded to coastal hazards by erecting shore protection structures, elevating land and buildings, or relocating inland. Accelerated sea-level rise would increase the costs and environmental impacts of these responses. Shoreline armoring can eliminate the land along the shore to which the public has access; beach nourishment projects often increase access to the shore. Preparing for sea-level rise can be justified in many cases, because the cost of preparing now is small compared to the cost of reacting later. Examples include wetland protection, flood insurance, longlived infrastructure, and coastal land-use planning. Nevertheless, preparing for sea-level rise has been the exception rather than the rule. Most coastal institutions were based on the implicit assumption that sea level and shorelines are stable. Efforts to plan for sea-level rise can be thwarted by several institutional biases, including government policies that encourage coastal development, flood insurance maps that do not consider sea-level rise, federal policies that prefer shoreline armoring over soft shore protection, and lack of plans delineating which areas would be protected or not as sea level rises. The prospect of accelerated sea-level rise and increased vulnerability in coastal regions underscores the immediate need for improving our scientific understanding of and ability to predict the effects of sea-level rise on natural systems and society. These actions, combined with development of decision support tools for taking adaptive actions and an effective public education program, can lessen the economic and environmental impacts of sea-level rise.

Report↗
USGS2011

Developing an institutional framework to incorporate ecosystem services into decision making-Proceedings of a workshop

The routine and effective incorporation of ecosystem services information into resource management decisions requires a careful consideration of the value of goods and services provided by natural systems. A multidisciplinary workshop was held in October 2008 on "Developing an Institutional Framework to Incorporate Ecosystem Services into Decision Making." This report summarizes that workshop, which focused on examining the relationship between an institutional framework and consideration of ecosystem services in resource management decision making. This workshop was the third in a series of three preconference workshops associated with ACES 2008 (A Conference on Ecosystem Services): Using Science for Decision Making in Dynamic Systems. These workshops were designed to explore the ACES 2008 theme on decision making and how the concept of ecosystem services can more effectively be incorporated into conservation, restoration, resource management, and development decisions. Preconference workshop 1, "Developing a Vision: Incorporating Ecosystem Services into Decision Making," was held April 15, 2008, in Cambridge, MA. In this workshop, participants addressed what would have to happen to make ecosystem services more routinely and effectively used in conservation, restoration, resource management, and development decisions, and identified some key challenges to developing the analytical framework (Hogan and others, 2009). Preconference workshop 2, "Developing an Analytical Framework: Incorporating Ecosystem Services into Decision Making," was held July 28, 2008, in Naples, FL, and focused on the analytical process and identification of research priorities for ecosystem services, their production and use, their spatial and temporal characteristics, their relationship with natural systems, and their interdependencies (Hogan and others, 2010). The summary presented here synthesizes the discussion at workshop 3 and considers how institutional structures and policy instruments can be used to achieve the vision developed in workshop 1, while recognizing the analytical capabilities and limitations identified in workshop 2. Our purpose was to identify how to use ecosystem service information more effectively and broadly in resource management and development decisions. We recognized the need to facilitate an integrated understanding of (1) the natural capital that produces ecosystem services; (2) the geospatial and temporal aspects of ecosystem service production, values, and use; (3) the value of ecosystem services (monetary and nonmonetary); and (4) institutional instruments, processes, and structures (property rights, laws, governance structures, and courts, for example). Interdisciplinary collaboration and understanding is beneficial and needs to engage stakeholders. The appropriate use of institutional structures, including markets, to integrate ecosystem services into decision making depends on the players and characteristics of the specific situation (such as stakeholders, the ecosystem, resources, and the political environment). Incorporating ecosystem service values into decisions requires consideration of place-based social, cultural, economic, and landscape characteristics and institutions. Thus, a single, prescribed solution will not work-various institutional strategies must be used in different situations. Market-based approaches require appropriate regulations, monitoring, and enforcement, depending on the situation and place. Further, market approaches will need to be coupled with nonmarket approaches into an integrated institutional framework.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2005

The no-project alternative analysis: An early product of the Tahoe Decision Support System

We report on the development of a No-project alternative analysis (NPAA) or “business as usual” scenario with respect to a 20-year projection of 21 indicators of environmental and socioeconomic conditions in the Lake Tahoe Basin for the Tahoe Regional Planning Agency (TRPA). Our effort was inspired by earlier work that investigated the tradeoffs between an environmental and an economic objective. The NPAA study has implications for a longer term goal of building a Tahoe Decision Support System (TDSS) to assist the TRPA and other Basin agencies in assessing the outcomes of management strategies. The NPAA assumes no major deviations from current management practices or from recent environmental or societal trends and planned Environmental Improvement Program (EIP) projects. Quantitative “scenario generation” tools were constructed to simulate site-specific land uses, various population categories, and associated vehicle miles traveled. Projections of each indicator’s attainment status were made by building visual conceptual models of the relevant natural and social processes, extrapolating trends, and using available models, research, and expert opinion. We present results of the NPAA, projected indicator status, key factors affecting the indicators, indicator functionality, and knowledge gaps. One important result is that current management practices may slow the loss or degradation of environmental qualities but not halt or reverse it. Our analysis also predicts an increase in recreation and commuting into and within the basin, primarily in private vehicles. Private vehicles, which are a critical mechanism by which the Basin population affects the surrounding environment, are a key determinant of air-quality indicators, a source of particulate matter affecting Secchi depth, a source of noise, and a factor in recreational and scenic quality, largely owing to congestion. Key uncertainties in the NPAA include climate change, EIP project effectiveness, and external population, economic activity, and air pollution.

Lake Tahoe Basin↗
USGS1988

Hydrology and ecology of the Apalachicola River, Florida : a summary of the river quality assessment

During 1979-81, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted a large-scale study of the Apalachicola River in northwest Florida, the largest and one of the most economically important rivers in the State. Termed the Apalachicola River Quality Assessment, the study emphasized interrelations among hydrodynamics, the flood-plain forest, and the nutrient-detritus flow through the river system to the estuary. This report summarizes major findings of the study. Data on accumulation of toxic substances in sediments and benthic organisms in the river were also collected. Because of the multiple uses of the Apalachicola River system, there are many difficult management decisions. The river is a waterway for shipping; hence there is an economic incentive for modification to facilitate movement of barge traffic. Such modifications include the proposed construction of dams, levees, bend easings, and training dikes; ditching and draining in the flood plain; and dredging and snagging in the river channel. The river is also recognized as an important supplier of detritus, nutrients, and freshwater to the Apalachicola Bay, which maintains an economically important shellfish industry. The importance of this input to the bay creates an incentive to keep the river basin in a natural state. Other values, such as timber harvesting, recreation, sport hunting, nature appreciation, and wildlife habitat, add even more to the difficulty of selecting management strategies. Water and nutrient budgets based on data collected during the river assessment study indicate the relative importance of various inputs and outflows in the system. Waterflow is controlled primarily by rainfall in upstream watersheds and is not greatly affected by local precipitation, ground-water exchanges, or evapotranspiration in the basin. On an annual basis, the total nutrient inflow to the system is nearly equal in quantity to total outflow, but there is a difference between inflow and outflow in the chemical and physical forms in which the nutrients are carried. The flood plain tends to be a net importer of soluble inorganic nutrients and a net exporter of particulate organic material. Analysis of long-term records shows that dam construction in the upstream watersheds and at the Apalachicola headwaters has had little effect on the total annual waterflow but has probably suppressed low-flow extremes. Other effects include riverbed degradation and channelization which have to do with alteration of the habitat for aquatic biota and changes in flood-plain vegetation. Whatever management decisions are made should take into account the impact on the natural flooding cycle. Flooding is crucial to the present flood-plain plant community and to the production, decomposition, and transport of organic material from that community. Permanent, substantial changes in the natural flooding cycle would be likely to induce concomitant changes in the flood-plain environment and in the nutrient and detritus yield to the estuary.

Water Supply Paper↗
USGS2009

Developing collaborative classifiers using an expert-based model

This paper presents a hierarchical, multi-stage adaptive strategy for image classification. We iteratively apply various classification methods (e.g., decision trees, neural networks), identify regions of parametric and geographic space where accuracy is low, and in these regions, test and apply alternate methods repeating the process until the entire image is classified. Currently, classifiers are evaluated through human input using an expert-based system; therefore, this paper acts as the proof of concept for collaborative classifiers. Because we decompose the problem into smaller, more manageable sub-tasks, our classification exhibits increased flexibility compared to existing methods since classification methods are tailored to the idiosyncrasies of specific regions. A major benefit of our approach is its scalability and collaborative support since selected low-accuracy classifiers can be easily replaced with others without affecting classification accuracy in high accuracy areas. At each stage, we develop spatially explicit accuracy metrics that provide straightforward assessment of results by non-experts and point to areas that need algorithmic improvement or ancillary data. Our approach is demonstrated in the task of detecting impervious surface areas, an important indicator for human-induced alterations to the environment, using a 2001 Landsat scene from Las Vegas, Nevada.

Nevada↗
USGS2023

Learning from arid and urban aquatic ecosystems to inform more sustainable and resilient futures

The hydrology and aquatic ecology of arid environments has long been understudied relative to temperate regions. Yet spatially and temporally intermittent and ephemeral waters characterized by flashy hydrographs typify arid regions that comprise a substantial proportion of the Earth. Additionally, drought, intense storms, and human modification of landscapes increasingly affect many temperate regions, resulting in hydrologic regimes more similar to aridlands. Here we review the contributions of Dr. Nancy Grimm to aridland hydrology and ecology, and applications of these insights to urban ecosystems and resilience of social-ecological-technological systems. Grimm catalyzed study of nitrogen cycling in streams and characterized feedbacks between surface water-groundwater exchange, nitrogen transformations, and aquatic biota. In aridlands, outcomes of these interactions depend on short- and long-term variation in the hydrologic regime. Grimm and colleagues applied hydrological and biogeochemical insights gained from study of aridland streams to urban ecosystems, integrating engineering, social and behavioral sciences, and geography. These studies evolved from characterizing the spatial heterogeneity of urban systems (i.e., watersheds, novel aquatic systems) and its influence on nutrient dynamics to an approach that evaluated human decision-making as a driver of disturbance regimes and changes in ecosystem function. Finally, Grimm and colleagues have applied principles of urban ecology to look toward the future of cities, considering scenarios of sustainable and resilient futures. We identify cross-cutting themes and approaches that have motivated discoveries across Grimm’s multi-decadal career, including spatial and temporal heterogeneity, hydrologic connectivity and regime, disturbance, systems thinking, and resilience. Finally, we emphasize Grimm’s broad contributions to science via support of long-term research, dedication to mentoring, and extensive collaborations that facilitated transdisciplinary research.

Journal of Hydrology↗
USGS2025

Using satellite imagery and soil data to understand occurrences and migration of soil conditions harmful to archaeological sites on Jamestown Island, Virginia

Many know Jamestown Island, Virginia, hereafter referred to as “the Island,” located near the mouth of the James River into the Chesapeake Bay, as the home of the first permanent English settlement in North America. However, the Island is home to 15,000 years’ worth of cultural artifacts and archaeological sites. In addition to its rich history, the Island is home to a variety of native plants and animals, including many rare, threatened, and endangered species. Preserving historical and natural resources is part of Colonial National Historic Park’s (COLO) enabling legislation. To this end, COLO has been seeking data to inform management decisions on how to prioritize resources to preserve archaeological sites and anticipate changes to natural systems from sea-level rise and other effects of climate change. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in partnership with COLO, collected and analyzed data to help determine soil conditions detrimental to archaeological sites across the Island using a combination of soil samples and assessments of vegetative health as a proxy for soil conditions. This study combined normalized difference vegetative index raster grids spanning 8 years, 2010 to 2018, and soil data from 50 sites sampled in dry (June 2021) and wet months (March 2022) at two different soil horizons to investigate potential hazards to plant health and corrosive conditions in the unsaturated subsurface. The data suggest that access to the James River drives soil pH and soil conductivity. Areas of the Island that are subject to frequent inundation were observed to have both higher soil conductivity (as high as 4,845 millisiemens per meter [mS/m]) and lower pH (as low as 3.84). Higher soil conductivity, or salinity, and more acidity create corrosive environment, which can destroy buried artifacts and are detrimental to vegetative health. These conditions were not limited to the edges of the Island, like Black Point. Inland locations, such as the Pitch and Tar Swamp, were observed to have some of the highest conductivity values, which were likely caused by from a combination of inflow of James River water along Back Creek into the Pitch and Tar Swamp and proximity to the Visitor Center and other high-traffic areas of the Island. A difference of normalized difference vegetative index values from 2010 to 2018 raster grid appears to support this, showing an apparent loss of vegetative health in marsh grass in the Pitch and Tar Swamp. These data may inform COLO about areas of the Island that are currently most threatened by corrosive conditions and how those conditions are likely to migrate in the future.

Virginia↗
USGS2008

Development of the U.S. Geological Survey's PAGER system (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response)

The Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) System plays a primary alerting role for global earthquake disasters as part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) response protocol. We provide an overview of the PAGER system, both of its current capabilities and our ongoing research and development. PAGER monitors the USGS’s near real-time U.S. and global earthquake origins and automatically identifies events that are of societal importance, well in advance of ground-truth or news accounts. Current PAGER notifications and Web pages estimate the population exposed to each seismic intensity level. In addition to being a useful indicator of potential impact, PAGER’s intensity/exposure display provides a new standard in the dissemination of rapid earthquake information. We are currently developing and testing a more comprehensive alert system that will include casualty estimates. This is motivated by the idea that an estimated range of possible number of deaths will aid in decisions regarding humanitarian response. Underlying the PAGER exposure and loss models are global earthquake ShakeMap shaking estimates, constrained as quickly as possible by finite-fault modeling and observed ground motions and intensities, when available. Loss modeling is being developed comprehensively with a suite of candidate models that range from fully empirical to largely analytical approaches. Which of these models is most appropriate for use in a particular earthquake depends on how much is known about local building stocks and their vulnerabilities. A first-order country-specific global building inventory has been developed, as have corresponding vulnerability functions. For calibrating PAGER loss models, we have systematically generated an Atlas of 5,000 ShakeMaps for significant global earthquakes during the last 36 years. For many of these, auxiliary earthquake source and shaking intensity data are also available. Refinements to the loss models are ongoing. Fundamental to such an alert system, we are also developing computational and communications infrastructure for rapid and robust operations and worldwide notifications. PAGER’s methodologies and datasets are being developed in an open environment to support other loss estimation efforts and provide avenues for outside collaboration and critique.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2009

Predicting bed shear stress and its role in sediment dynamics and restoration potential of the Everglades and other vegetated flow systems

Entrainment of sediment by flowing water affects topography, habitat suitability, and nutrient cycling in vegetated floodplains and wetlands, impacting ecosystem evolution and the success of restoration projects. Nonetheless, restoration managers lack simple decision-support tools for predicting shear stresses and sediment redistribution potential in different vegetation communities. Using a field-validated numerical model, we developed state-space diagrams that provide these predictions over a range of water-surface slopes, depths, and associated velocities in Everglades ridge and slough vegetation communities. Diminished bed shear stresses and a consequent decrease in bed sediment redistribution are hypothesized causes of a recent reduction in the topographic and vegetation heterogeneity of this ecosystem. Results confirmed the inability of present-day flows to entrain bed sediment. Further, our diagrams showed bed shear stresses to be highly sensitive to emergent vegetation density and water-surface slope but less sensitive to water depth and periphyton or floating vegetation abundance. These findings suggested that instituting a pulsing flow regime could be the most effective means to restore sediment redistribution to the Everglades. However, pulsing flows will not be sufficient to erode sediment from sloughs with abundant spikerush, unless spikerush density first decreases by natural or managed processes. Our methods provide a novel tool for identifying restoration parameters and performance measures in many types of vegetated aquatic environments where sediment erosion and deposition are involved.

Ecological Engineering↗
USGS2025

An expert elicitation to inform coastal management decision-making for mitigating future hazards

A scientific expert elicitation was conducted to address the feasibility of restoring coastal environments in response to future hazards to best meet management objectives. Subject matter experts produced probabilistic estimates of coastal change metrics used to evaluate decision objectives and alternatives informed by a stakeholder advisory group. Changes in salt marsh extents, storm surge flooding and barrier island morphology by the year 2050 were estimated for three scenarios of management actions (no action, interior headland restoration, beach and dune nourishment), while also considering the effects of future sea level rise (SLR). Collectively the participants were confident in their expectations of increased storm surge flooding with SLR, regardless of management interventions. Estimates of marsh response had large uncertainty, but experts generally hypothesized that marsh area would decrease with increasing SLR if no action was taken, especially in areas already experiencing marsh deterioration. There was agreement that dune heights and barrier island widths would decrease with SLR if no action was taken. Experts felt that beach and dune nourishment may reduce the amount of erosion under future SLR. All experts recognized the dynamic effects of SLR and feedback between bio-geo-physical processes that govern coastal systems. Participants agreed that size and location of management actions were important factors for influencing the coastal response. Expert elicitation is novel in the context of coastal management decision making and can be a useful tool for informing future scientific needs and providing rapid results to end users to inform reallocation of resources surrounding research and application.

Alabama, Mississippi↗
USGS2016

Continuous-flow centrifugation to collect suspended sediment for chemical analysis

Recent advances in suspended-sediment monitoring tools and surrogate technologies have greatly improved the ability to quantify suspended-sediment concentrations and to estimate daily, seasonal, and annual suspended-sediment fluxes from rivers to coastal waters. However, little is known about the chemical composition of suspended sediment, and how it may vary spatially between water bodies and temporally within a single system owing to climate, seasonality, land use, and other natural and anthropogenic drivers. Many water-quality contaminants, such as organic and inorganic chemicals, nutrients, and pathogens, preferentially partition in sediment rather than water. Suspended sediment-bound chemical concentrations may be undetected during analysis of unfiltered water samples, owing to small water sample volumes and analytical limitations. Quantification of suspended sediment‑bound chemical concentrations is needed to improve estimates of total chemical concentrations, chemical fluxes, and exposure levels of aquatic organisms and humans in receiving environments. Despite these needs, few studies or monitoring programs measure the chemical composition of suspended sediment, largely owing to the difficulty in consistently obtaining samples of sufficient quality and quantity for laboratory analysis. A field protocol is described here utilizing continuous‑flow centrifugation for the collection of suspended sediment for chemical analysis. The centrifuge used for development of this method is small, lightweight, and portable for the field applications described in this protocol. Project scoping considerations, deployment of equipment and system layout options, and results from various field and laboratory quality control experiments are described. The testing confirmed the applicability of the protocol for the determination of many inorganic and organic chemicals sorbed on suspended sediment, including metals, pesticides, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and polychlorinated biphenyls. The particle-size distribution of the captured sediment changes to a more fine-grained sample during centrifugation, and the necessity to account for this change when extrapolating chemical concentrations on the centrifuged sediment sample to the environmental water system is discussed. The data produced using this method will help eliminate a data gap of suspended sediment-bound chemical concentrations, and will support management decisions, such as chemical source-control efforts or in-stream restoration activities. When coupled with streamflow and sediment flux data, it will improve estimates of riverine chemical fluxes, and will aid in assessing the importance and impacts of suspended sediment-bound chemicals to downstream freshwater and coastal marine ecosystems.

Techniques and Methods↗
USGS2011

Overview of the ARkStorm scenario

The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to set research goals and provides decision-making information for loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. This detailed depiction of a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California served as the centerpiece of the largest earthquake drill in United States history, involving over 5,000 emergency responders and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens. This document summarizes the next major public project for MHDP, a winter storm scenario called ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000). Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years. Extensive flooding results. In many cases flooding overwhelms the state’s flood-protection system, which is typically designed to resist 100- to 200-year runoffs. The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other coastal communities. Windspeeds in some places reach 125 miles per hour, hurricane-force winds. Across wider areas of the state, winds reach 60 miles per hour. Hundreds of landslides damage roads, highways, and homes. Property damage exceeds $ 300 billion, most from flooding. Demand surge (an increase in labor rates and other repair costs after major natural disasters) could increase property losses by 20 percent. Agricultural losses and other costs to repair lifelines, dewater (drain) flooded islands, and repair damage from landslides, brings the total direct property loss to nearly $ 400 billion, of which $ 20 to $ 30 billion would be recoverable through public and commercial insurance. Power, water, sewer, and other lifelines experience damage that takes weeks or months to restore. Flooding evacuation could involve 1.5 million residents in the inland region and delta counties. Business interruption costs reach $ 325 billion in addition to the $ 400 billion property repair costs, meaning that an ARkStorm could cost on the order of $ 725 billion, which is nearly 3 times the loss deemed to be realistic by the ShakeOut authors for a severe southern California earthquake, an event with roughly the same annual occurrence probability. The ARkStorm has several public policy implications: (1) An ARkStorm raises serious questions about the ability of existing federal, state, and local disaster planning to handle a disaster of this magnitude. (2) A core policy issue raised is whether to pay now to mitigate, or pay a lot more later for recovery. (3) Innovative financing solutions are likely to be needed to avoid fiscal crisis and adequately fund response and recovery costs from a similar, real, disaster. (4) Responders and government managers at all levels could be encouraged to conduct risk assessments, and devise the full spectrum of exercises, to exercise ability of their plans to address a similar event. (5) ARkStorm can be a reference point for application of Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and California Emergency Management Agency guidance connecting federal, state and local natural hazards mapping and mitigation planning under the National Flood Insurance Plan and Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000. (6) Common messages to educate the public about the risk of such an extreme disaster as the ARkStorm scenario could be developed and consistently communicated to facilitate policy formulation and transformation. These impacts were estimated by a team of 117 scientists, engineers, public-policy experts, insurance experts, and employees of the affected lifelines. In many aspects the ARkStorm produced new science, such as the model of coastal inundation. The products of the ARkStorm are intended for use by emergency planners, utility operators, policymakers, and others to inform preparedness plans and to enhance resiliency.

California↗
USGS2025

Integrating sea level rise scenarios into Everglades restoration planning

One of the largest and most expensive restoration efforts in the world is occurring in the Everglades, a sub-tropical freshwater wetland system located in southern Florida. This unique ecosystem supports several endangered species, provides flood control for Florida’s large urban population, and provides water for both agriculture and drinking supply within the state. The Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP), authorized by Congress in 2000, guides federal, state, and local efforts to build the infrastructure necessary to bring more water into the Everglades and restore its ecological integrity, while balancing other water-related needs such as water supply and flood protection in the human environment. The Everglades encompasses the southern coast of Florida and restoration efforts are likely to be impacted by climate-induced sea level rise. However, currently, many project planning studies do not formally incorporate the potential impacts of sea level rise when evaluating restoration plan outcomes. Resource managers and project planners require methods and tools to confidently incorporate scenarios of sea level rise into their evaluations. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and partners from the University of Florida worked with project planners from multiple agencies to identify restoration questions for consideration when addressing sea level rise. In addition, our project team sought to understand the types of sea level rise decision-support tools that would be of interest, and then worked with Everglades restoration managers and project planners to develop those tools. The tools developed by this project can be used by project planners to inform their decision-making abilities when considering multiple restoration plans across the Everglades landscape. Specifically, the novel ways to visualize output information from ecological models that came of this project can help project planners compare alternative restoration plans that include potential sea level rise impacts. This effort demonstrates how incorporating sea level rise scenarios into Everglades restoration project planning can help managers decide whether projects will maintain or improve ecological integrity and evaluate water availability for wildlife and humans.

Final Report↗
USGS1999

Examining risk in mineral exploration

Successful mineral exploration strategy requires identification of some of the risk sources and considering them in the decision-making process so that controllable risk can be reduced. Risk is defined as chance of failure or loss. Exploration is an economic activity involving risk and uncertainty, so risk also must be defined in an economic context. Risk reduction can be addressed in three fundamental ways: (1) increasing the number of examinations; (2) increasing success probabilities; and (3) changing success probabilities per test by learning. These provide the framework for examining exploration risk. First, the number of prospects examined is increased, such as by joint venturing, thereby reducing chance of gambler's ruin . Second, success probability is increased by exploring for deposit types more likely to be economic, such as those with a high proportion of world-class deposits. For example, in looking for 100+ ton (>3 million oz) Au deposits, porphyry Cu-Au, or epithermal quartz alunite Au types require examining fewer deposits than Comstock epithermal vein and most other deposit types. For porphyry copper exploration, a strong positive relationship between area of sulfide minerals and deposits' contained Cu can be used to reduce exploration risk by only examining large sulfide systems. In some situations, success probabilities can be increased by examining certain geologic environments. Only 8% of kuroko massive sulfide deposits are world class, but success chances can be increased to about 15% by looking in settings containing sediments and rhyolitic rocks. It is possible to reduce risk of loss during mining by sequentially developing and expanding a mine—thus reducing capital exposed at early stages and reducing present value of risked capital. Because this strategy is easier to apply in some deposit types than in others, the strategy can affect deposit types sought. Third, risk is reduced by using prior information and by changing the independence of trials assumption, that is, by learning. Bayes' formula is used to change the probability of existence of the deposit sought on the basis of successive exploration stages. Perhaps the most important way to reduce exploration risk is to employ personnel with the appropriate experience and yet who are learning.

Natural Resources Research↗
USGS2000

Field estimates of gravity terrain corrections and Y2K-compatible method to convert from gravity readings with multiple base stations to tide- and long-term drift-corrected observations

Gravity observations are directly made or are obtained from other sources by the U.S. Geological Survey in order to prepare maps of the anomalous gravity field and consequently to interpret the subsurface distribution of rock densities and associated lithologic or geologic units. Observations are made in the field with gravity meters at new locations and at reoccupations of previously established gravity "stations." This report illustrates an interactively-prompted series of steps needed to convert gravity "readings" to values that are tied to established gravity datums and includes computer programs to implement those steps. Inasmuch as individual gravity readings have small variations, gravity-meter (instrument) drift may not be smoothly variable, and acommodations may be needed for ties to previously established stations, the reduction process is iterative. Decision-making by the program user is prompted by lists of best values and graphical displays. Notes about irregularities of topography, which affect the value of observed gravity but are not shown in sufficient detail on topographic maps, must be recorded in the field. This report illustrates ways to record field notes (distances, heights, and slope angles) and includes computer programs to convert field notes to gravity terrain corrections. This report includes approaches that may serve as models for other applications, for example: portrayal of system flow; style of quality control to document and validate computer applications; lack of dependence on proprietary software except source code compilation; method of file-searching with a dwindling list; interactive prompting; computer code to write directly in the PostScript (Adobe Systems Incorporated) printer language; and high-lighting the four-digit year on the first line of time-dependent data sets for assured Y2K compatibility. Computer source codes provided are written in the Fortran scientific language. In order for the programs to operate, they first must be converted (compiled) into an executable form on the user's computer. Although program testing was done in a UNIX (tradename of American Telephone and Telegraph Company) computer environment, it is anticipated that only a system-dependent date-and-time function may need to be changed for adaptation to other computer platforms that accept standard Fortran code.d del iliscipit volorer sequi ting etue feum zzriliquatum zzriustrud esenibh ex esto esequat.

Open-File Report↗