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USGS2009

Delayed conifer mortality after fuel reduction treatments: Interactive effects of fuel, fire intensity, and bark beetles

Many low‐elevation dry forests of the western United States contain more small trees and fewer large trees, more down woody debris, and less diverse and vigorous understory plant communities compared to conditions under historical fire regimes. These altered structural conditions may contribute to increased probability of unnaturally severe wildfires, susceptibility to uncharacteristic insect outbreaks, and drought‐related mortality. Broad‐scale fuel reduction and restoration treatments are proposed to promote stand development on trajectories toward more sustainable structures. Little research to date, however, has quantified the effects of these treatments on the ecosystem, especially delayed and latent tree mortality resulting directly or indirectly from treatments. In this paper, we explore complex hypotheses relating to the cascade of effects that influence ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) and Douglas‐fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) mortality using structural equation modeling (SEM). We used annual census and plot data through six growing seasons after thinning and four growing seasons after burning from a replicated, operational‐scale, completely randomized experiment conducted in northeastern Oregon, USA, as part of the national Fire and Fire Surrogate study. Treatments included thin, burn, thin followed by burn (thin + burn), and control. Burn and thin + burn treatments increased the proportion of dead trees while the proportion of dead trees declined or remained constant in thin and control units, although the density of dead trees was essentially unchanged with treatment. Most of the new mortality (96%) occurred within two years of treatment and was attributed to bark beetles. Bark beetle‐caused tree mortality, while low overall, was greatest in thin + burn treatments. SEM results indicate that the probability of mortality of large‐diameter ponderosa pine from bark beetles and wood borers was directly related to surface fire severity and bole charring, which in turn depended on fire intensity, which was greater in units where thinning increased large woody fuels. These results have implications when deciding among management options for restoring ecosystem health in similar ponderosa pine and Douglas‐fir forests.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2003

An introduction to the San Francisco Estuary tidal wetlands restoration series

Restoration of tidal wetlands may provide an important tool for improving ecological health and water management for beneficial uses of the San Francisco Estuary (hereafter “Estuary”). Given the large losses of tidal wetlands from San Francisco Bay and the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta in the last 150 years, it seems logical to assume that restoring tidal wetlands will have benefits for a variety of aquatic and terrestrial native species that have declined during the same time period. However, many other changes have also occurred in the Estuary concurrent with the declines of native species. Other factors that might be important in species declines include the effects of construction of upstream dams, large and small water diversions within the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, agricultural pesticides, trace elements from industrial and agricultural activities, and invasions of alien species. Discussions among researchers, managers, and stakeholders have identified a number of uncertainties regarding the potential benefits of tidal wetland restoration. The articles of the Tidal Wetlands Restoration Series address four major issues of concern. Stated as questions, these are: 1. Will tidal wetland restoration enhance populations of native fishes? 2. Will wetland restoration increase rates of methylation of mercury? 3. Will primary production and other ecological processes in restored tidal wetlands result in net export of organic carbon to adjacent habitats, resulting in enhancement of the food web? Will the carbon produced contribute to the formation of disinfection byproducts when disinfected for use as drinking water? 4. Will restored tidal wetlands provide long-term ecosystem benefits that can be sustained in response to ongoing physical processes, including sedimentation and hydrodynamics? Reducing the uncertainty surrounding these issues is of critical importance because tidal wetland restoration is assumed to be a critical tool for enhancement of native species and ecosystem processes in the Estuary.

California↗

USGS2022

Pharmaceutical pollution of the world’s rivers

Environmental exposure to active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) can have negative effects on the health of ecosystems and humans. While numerous studies have monitored APIs in rivers, these employ different analytical methods, measure different APIs, and have ignored many of the countries of the world. This makes it difficult to quantify the scale of the problem from a global perspective. Furthermore, comparison of the existing data, generated for different studies/regions/continents, is challenging due to the vast differences between the analytical methodologies employed. Here, we present a global-scale study of API pollution in 258 of the world’s rivers, representing the environmental influence of 471.4 million people across 137 geographic regions. Samples were obtained from 1,052 locations in 104 countries (representing all continents and 36 countries not previously studied for API contamination) and analyzed for 61 APIs. Highest cumulative API concentrations were observed in sub-Saharan Africa, south Asia, and South America. The most contaminated sites were in low- to middle-income countries and were associated with areas with poor wastewater and waste management infrastructure and pharmaceutical manufacturing. The most frequently detected APIs were carbamazepine, metformin, and caffeine (a compound also arising from lifestyle use), which were detected at over half of the sites monitored. Concentrations of at least one API at 25.7% of the sampling sites were greater than concentrations considered safe for aquatic organisms, or which are of concern in terms of selection for antimicrobial resistance. Therefore, pharmaceutical pollution poses a global threat to environmental and human health, as well as to delivery of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗

USGS2024

Assessing and implementing the concept of Blue Economy in Laurentian Great Lakes fisheries: Lessons from coupled human and natural systems

Inland fisheries often receive little to no attention in global discussions about sustainable development. The consequences of overlooking inland fisheries in sustainability dialogues are increasingly problematic as fisheries stressors (e.g., overharvest, species invasion, climate change, habitat modification) intensify. Elevating the global profile of inland fisheries requires an approach for quantifying and clearly conveying the ecological, economic, and societal values of these systems. One such approach involves the Blue Economy, a multifaceted concept initially used to describe the intersection of marine conservation and sustainable use of marine resources for economic growth. Although conceptually powerful, the Blue Economy has rarely been applied to inland waters and fisheries. To address this knowledge gap, we conceptualized Laurentian Great Lakes fisheries from a Blue Economy perspective. In particular, we evaluated the utility of the coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) framework for characterizing the ecological, economic, and societal values of Laurentian Great Lakes fisheries and associated contributions to the Blue Economy (e.g., human livelihoods, food security, recreation, conservation, economic prosperity). There are numerous opportunities to leverage CHANS methods (e.g., metacoupling, telecoupling) and associated mathematical models to advance fisheries science, inform fisheries management, and ultimately move toward a Blue Economy in the Laurentian Great Lakes. To that end, we demonstrated applications of CHANS methods, discussed strategies for communicating with stakeholders, and provided insights for navigating challenges to developing a Blue Economy in the Laurentian Great Lakes—a model that could be used in the African Great Lakes and other large ecosystems in the world.

Laurentian Great Lakes↗

USGS2016

A landscape-scale assessment of above- and belowground primary production in coastal wetlands: Implications for climate change-induced community shifts

Above- and belowground production in coastal wetlands are important contributors to carbon accumulation and ecosystem sustainability. As sea level rises, we can expect shifts to more salt-tolerant communities, which may alter these ecosystem functions and services. Although the direct influence of salinity on species-level primary production has been documented, we lack an understanding of the landscape-level response of coastal wetlands to increasing salinity. What are the indirect effects of sea-level rise, i.e., how does primary production vary across a landscape gradient of increasing salinity that incorporates changes in wetland type? This is the first study to measure both above- and belowground production in four wetland types that span an entire coastal gradient from fresh to saline wetlands. We hypothesized that increasing salinity would limit rates of primary production, and saline marshes would have lower rates of above- and belowground production than fresher marshes. However, along the Northern Gulf of Mexico Coast in Louisiana, USA, we found that aboveground production was highest in brackish marshes, compared with fresh, intermediate, and saline marshes, and belowground production was similar among all wetland types along the salinity gradient. Multiple regression analysis indicated that salinity was the only significant predictor of production, and its influence was dependent upon wetland type. We concluded that (1) salinity had a negative effect on production within wetland type, and this relationship was strongest in the fresh marsh (0–2 PSU) and (2) along the overall landscape gradient, production was maintained by mechanisms at the scale of wetland type, which were likely related to plant energetics. Regardless of wetland type, we found that belowground production was significantly greater than aboveground production. Additionally, inter-annual variation, associated with severe drought conditions, was observed exclusively for belowground production, which may be a more sensitive indicator of ecosystem health than aboveground production.

Estuaries and Coasts↗

USGS2011

Terrestrial forest management plan for Palmyra Atoll

This 'Terrestrial Forest Management Plan for Palmyra Atoll' was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for The Nature Conservancy (TNC) Palmyra Program to refine and expand goals and objectives developed through the Conservation Action Plan process. It is one in a series of adaptive management plans designed to achieve TNC's mission toward the protection and enhancement of native wildlife and habitat. The 'Terrestrial Forest Management Plan for Palmyra Atoll' focuses on ecosystem integrity and specifically identifies and addresses issues related to assessing the status and distribution of resources, as well as the pressures acting upon them, most specifically nonnative and potentially invasive species. The plan, which presents strategies for increasing ecosystem integrity, provides a framework to implement and track the progress of conservation and restoration goals related to terrestrial resources on Palmyra Atoll. The report in its present form is intended to be an overview of what is known about historical and current forest resources; it is not an exhaustive review of all available literature relevant to forest management but an attempt to assemble as much information specific to Palmyra Atoll as possible. Palmyra Atoll is one of the Northern Line Islands in the Pacific Ocean southwest of the Hawai`ian Islands. It consists of many heavily vegetated islets arranged in a horseshoe pattern around four lagoons and surrounded by a coral reef. The terrestrial ecosystem consists of three primary native vegetation types: Pisonia grandis forest, coastal strand forest, and grassland. Among these vegetation types, the health and extent of Pisonia grandis forest is of particular concern. Overall, the three vegetation types support 25 native plant species (two of which may be extirpated), 14 species of sea birds, six shore birds, at least one native reptile, at least seven native insects, and six native land crabs. Green and hawksbill turtles forage at Palmyra Atoll, and though rarely documented, beach nesting could be affected by terrestrial management actions. There are various nonnative or invasive species throughout the terrestrial ecosystem. The most notable examples of terrestrial invasive species include coconut palms (Cocos nucifera) and black rats (Rattus rattus). Although it is unclear whether they are nonnative, coconut palms are currently the most dominant plant across Palmyra Atoll. They compete with native plant species for space and resources and are potentially detrimental to sea birds dependent on native vegetation for roosting and nesting habitat. This competition in turn impacts nutrient resource availability, thereby reshaping energy flow in the ecosystem. Black rats are known to prey on ground-nesting sea birds and are likely responsible for the lack of burrowing sea bird reproduction at Palmyra Atoll. In addition, they may be facilitating the invasion of other nonnative species and negatively impacting other native fauna. Although the extent and impacts of these and other nonnative and (or) invasive species are not fully understood, the extent and impacts are clearly a threat to the native species and one of the most urgent threats to the overall ecosystem integrity of Palmyra Atoll. This 'Terrestrial Forest Management Plan for Palmyra Atoll' addresses issues related to invasive species and other problems. Priority goals are established as are associated objectives and strategies. The overarching goal is to perpetuate and where possible restore terrestrial ecosystem integrity through the following techniques: 1. Habitat management: Maintain and enhance habitat to the extent possible to sustain thriving Pisonia grandis forest, coastal strand forest, endemic grassland, self-sustaining populations of sea birds, shore birds, coconut crabs, native lizards, and native insects. 2. Monitoring and assessment: Acquire information on distribution and abundance as needed for conservation of each resour

Open-File Report↗

USGS2007

Yellowstone grizzly bear investigations: Annual report of the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team, 2006

The contents of this Annual Report summarize results of monitoring and research from the 2006 field season. The report also contains a summary of nuisance grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos horribilis ) management actions. The Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team (IGBST) continues to work on issues associated with counts of unduplicated females with cubs-of- the-year (COY). These counts are used to establish a minimum population size, which is then used to establish mortality thresholds for the Recovery Plan (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service [USFWS] 1993). After considerable delays due to programming issues, a computer program that defines the rule set used by Knight et al. (1995) to differentiate unique family groups was development and tested in 2005 and 2006. Simulations using observations of collared females with COY were randomly sampled to generate datasets of observations of random females with COY. These datasets were then run though the simulations program to test the accuracy of the rules. Data are currently being summarized. This project has been completed and a manuscript was submitted to the Journal of Wildlife Management. The grizzly bear recovery plan (USFWS 1993) established human-caused mortality quotas. We used the latest information on reproduction and survival to estimate population trajectory in the same simulation model originally used by Harris (1984). A Wildlife Monographs was published in 2006. Additionally, the study team, in cooperation with several quantitative experts, reassessed how population size is indexed and how sustainable mortality rates are established. A draft report was presented to the Yellowstone Ecosystem Subcommittee in spring 2005. It was published as part of the USFWS Delisting Rule (Federal Register Vol. 70, No. 221, Nov. 17, 2005, 69853–69884) and subjected to public comment. This workshop document can be found at http://www.fws.gov/mountain-prairie/species/mammals/grizzly/yellowstone.htm. During the summer of 2006, a second workshop was held to address public comment and professional peer review. The result of this workshop was a supplement to the 2005 workshop document. This supplement can be found at http://www.fws.gov/mountain-prairie/species/mammals/grizzly/yellowstone.htm under the link Revised Methods to Estimate Population Size and Sustainable Mortality Limits. Results of those estimates are provided in Appendix A. Our project addressing the potential application of stable isotopes and trace elements to quantify consumption rates of whitebark pine ( Pinus albicaulis ) and cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarki ) by grizzly bears was completed. Our manuscript on consumption rates of whitebark pine was published in the Canadian Journal of Zoology 81:763-770. Results of the mercury studies were also published in the Canadian Journal of Zoology 82:493–501. Copies can be found on the IGBST website http://www.nrmsc.usgs.gov/research/igbst-home.htm. Based upon this work, we submitted a proposal to analyze all historic tissue samples from grizzly bears in the ecosystem. That proposal was funded and samples have been sent to a lab for isotopic analysis. We hope to have those results in early 2008. Results of DNA hair snaring work conducted on Yellowstone Lake were submitted and published in the Journal Ursus (Haroldson et al. 2005). Results of this study conducted from 1997–2000 showed a decline in fish use by grizzly bears when compared to earlier work conducted by Reinhart (1990) in 1985–1987. As a consequence, the IGBST submitted a proposal to the National Park Service and received 3 years funding to repeat that work. This project began in 2007. There are 2 graduate students and several field technicians working on the program. We completed the final field season in Grand Teton National Park evaluating habitat use both temporally and spatially between grizzly and black bears ( Ursus americanus ). We continue to use GPS technology that incorporates a spread spectrum communication system. Spread spectrum allows for transfer of stored GPS locations from the collar to a remote receiving station. Results of the 2006 field season are reported here. We plan to complete the final report in late 2007. We continued to monitor the health of whitebark pine in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) in cooperation with the Greater Yellowstone Whitebark Pine Monitoring Working Group. A summary of the 2006 monitoring is also presented (Appendix B). The IGBST uses counts of winter-killed ungulates to index spring carcass abundance for grizzly bears. Likewise, we use wier counts and stream surveys to index cutthroat trout abundance. We ask Dr. Steve Cherry, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Montana State University-Bozeman, to review the protocols and make recommendations for improving them. That review and recommendations are presented in Appendix C. Finally, the state of Wyoming, following recommendations from the Yellowstone Ecosystem Subcommittee and the IGBST, launched the Bear Wise Community Effort. The focus is to minimize human/bear conflicts, minimize human-caused bear mortalities associated with conflicts, and safeguard the human community. Results of these efforts are detailed in Appendix D. The annual reports of the IGBST summarize annual data collection. Because additional information can be obtained after publication, data summaries are subject to change. For that reason, data analyses and summaries presented in this report supersede all previously published data. The study area and sampling techniques are reported by Blanchard (1985), Mattson et al. (1991 a), and Haroldson et al. (1998).

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2025

Bacterial community diversity and potential eco-physiological roles in toxigenic blooms composed of Microcystis, Aphanizomenon or Planktothrix

Cyanobacterial toxicity, cyanotoxins, and their impact on aquatic ecosystems and human health are well documented. In comparison, less is known about bloom-associated bacterial communities. Co-occurring bacteria can influence bloom development, physiology and collapse, and may also provide a niche for pathogenic bacteria. Existing research focuses on the cyanosphere of Microcystis -dominated blooms, despite the increasing prevalence of filamentous genera ( Aphanizomenon and Planktothrix ). This pilot study aimed to broaden our understanding of the bacterial consortia attached to morphologically distinct cyanobacteria (coccoid and filamentous) dominating phytoplankton communities and to explore their potential roles in amplifying the impacts of cyanobacterial blooms. We investigated four shallow freshwater bodies across three continents and two climate zones: an urban pond in the USA, a dammed reservoir and a natural lake in Poland, and an urban water body in Singapore. Amplicon sequencing (16S rRNA gene) was used to characterize bacterial communities, while shotgun metagenomics identified nitrogen- and phosphorus-cycling genes to infer potential eco-physiological functions. Cyanobacteria dominated bacterioplankton assemblages at all sites (>35.6%), with bloom composition influencing toxigenic profiles. A mixed bloom of Microcystis , Snowella , and Aphanizomenon had the broadest range of cyanotoxin synthetase genes ( mcy E, cyr J, ana F and sxt A). Microcystis blooms correlated with increased Roseomonas , while Planktothrix co-occurred with Flavobacterium – both bacteria likely contribute to nutrient-cycling within blooms and represent potential opportunistic pathogens for aquatic organisms and humans. The Microcystis cyanosphere exhibited the highest number of significant positive correlations with bacteria (19 relations), compared to Planktothrix and Aphanizomenon (11 and 2 relations, respectively). Non-diazotrophic blooms of Microcystis and Planktothrix showed greater abundances of nitrogen – ( ure B, gln A, nar B, and nar HZ) and phosphorus-cycling genes ( pho BHPR and ppk 1), indicating a strong dependence on associated bacteria for nutrient acquisition compared to diazotrophic Aphanizomenon . These findings suggest that Aphanizomenon -dominated blooms may be sustained by simpler microbiomes. Our results provide preliminary evidence of cyanosphere heterogeneity potentially shaped by the dominance or coexistence of three morphologically and eco-physiologically distinct genera of cyanobacteria. A comprehensive knowledge of the taxonomy and functional roles of bloom-associated microbiomes is therefore essential to understand bloom activity, evaluate the environmental threat, and develop effective strategies for prevention and mitigation.

Frontiers in Microbiology↗

USGS2017

Analyzing cloud base at local and regional scales to understand tropical montane cloud forest vulnerability to climate change

The degree to which cloud immersion provides water in addition to rainfall, suppresses transpiration, and sustains tropical montane cloud forests (TMCFs) during rainless periods is not well understood. Climate and land use changes represent a threat to these forests if cloud base altitude rises as a result of regional warming or deforestation. To establish a baseline for quantifying future changes in cloud base, we installed a ceilometer at 100 m altitude in the forest upwind of the TMCF that occupies an altitude range from ∼ 600 m to the peaks at 1100 m in the Luquillo Mountains of eastern Puerto Rico. Airport Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) ceilometer data, radiosonde data, and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) satellite data were obtained to investigate seasonal cloud base dynamics, altitude of the trade-wind inversion (TWI), and typical cloud thickness for the surrounding Caribbean region. Cloud base is rarely quantified near mountains, so these results represent a first look at seasonal and diurnal cloud base dynamics for the TMCF. From May 2013 to August 2016, cloud base was lowest during the midsummer dry season, and cloud bases were lower than the mountaintops as often in the winter dry season as in the wet seasons. The lowest cloud bases most frequently occurred at higher elevation than 600 m, from 740 to 964 m. The Luquillo forest low cloud base altitudes were higher than six other sites in the Caribbean by ∼ 200–600 m, highlighting the importance of site selection to measure topographic influence on cloud height. Proximity to the oceanic cloud system where shallow cumulus clouds are seasonally invariant in altitude and cover, along with local trade-wind orographic lifting and cloud formation, may explain the dry season low clouds. The results indicate that climate change threats to low-elevation TMCFs are not limited to the dry season; changes in synoptic-scale weather patterns that increase frequency of drought periods during the wet seasons (periods of higher cloud base) may also impact ecosystem health.

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics↗

USGS2005

Yellowstone grizzly bear investigations: Annual report of the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team, 2004

The contents of this Annual Report summarize results of monitoring and research from the 2004 field season. The report also contains a summary of nuisance grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos horribilis ) management actions. The study team continues to work on issues associated with counts of unduplicated females with cubs-of-the-year (COY). These counts are used to establish a minimum population size, which is then used to establish mortality thresholds for the Recovery Plan (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service [USFWS] 1993). A computer program that defines the rule set used by Knight et al. (1995) to differentiate unique family groups was completed in spring 2005. We will use an improved version of this model to verify the accuracy of the rules using known bears and their telemetry locations in test runs. We hope to have this work complete by the end of 2005. The grizzly bear recovery plan (USFWS 1993) established mortality quotas at 4% of the minimum population estimate derived from female with COY data and no more than 30% of the 4% (1.2%) could be female bears. Simulation modeling (Harris 1984) established sustainable mortality at around 6% of the population. We used the latest information on reproduction and survival to estimate population trajectory in the same simulation model originally used by Harris. A Wildlife Monograph has been accepted for publication and should be available by summer 2005. Our project addressing the potential application of stable isotopes and trace elements to quantify consumption rates of whitebark pine ( Pinus albicaulis ) and cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarki ) by grizzly bears was completed. Our manuscript on consumption rates of whitebark pine has been published (Canadian Journal of Zoology 81:763-770). The manuscript on fish consumption rates was also accepted and is published in the Canadian Journal of Zoology 82:493-501. Both can be found on the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team (IGBST) website http://www.nrmsc.usgs.gov/research/igbst-home.htm. We began a new study in Grand Teton National Park evaluating habitat use both temporally and spatially between grizzly and black ( Ursus americanus ) bears. We will employ a new form of Global Positioning System (GPS) technology that incorporates a spread spectrum communication system. Spread spectrum allows for transfer of stored GPS locations from the collar to a remote receiving station. Results of our first yea r’s field season are summarized in this report. Whitebark pine (WBP) has been identified as one of the import ant fall foods of the Yellowstone grizzly bear. Previous efforts to map the distribution of WBP were for the Cumulative Effects Model. Consequently the only coverage of WBP distribution was for the grizzly bear Recovery Zone. We were successful in getting financial support through the U.S. Geological Survey Land Remote Sensing Program and Interdisciplinary Science Support Activities Project to create an ecosystem-wide map of the distribution of WBP. The results of that project are reported in Appendix A. The study team annually estimates WBP cone production on a series of transects. That information is reported annually in our reports. Concern over the long-term health of WBP prompted us to investigate the usefulness of cone counts as an indirect index of WBP health. Results of this analysis (Appendix B) indicated that cone production is too variable to serve this purpose. Consequently, we partnered with several 2 other agencies and embarked on a program to develop a long-term monitoring program directed specifically at WBP health in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). Our team (Greater Yellowstone Whitebark Pine Monitoring Working Group) was successful in obtaining funds to develop and implement a WBP health monitoring program. Results of our first years work are presented in Appendix C. We also successfully competed for funds in 2005 and will continue to collect information on WBP health. Army cutworm moths ( Euxoa auxiliaris ) are also a very important food for a segment of the GYE grizzly bear population. Hillary Robison, graduate student at University of Nevada, Reno, is nearing completion of her program. In this report, we post her annual work summary, and abstracts of her most recently submitted publications. These include one on the levels of pesticides in cutworm moths and their potential affect on grizzly bears (Appendix D), a spatial analysis to identify army cutworm moth habitat (Appendix E), and the results of a preliminary analysis of pollen grains on the mouth parts of moths (Appendix F) to help identify which plant species are commonly fed upon. Other study team members have also been working on various aspects of grizzly bear science. Study team member Kerry Gunther hosted a workshop on habituated grizzly bears in North America. A copy of the abstract of that report can be found in Appendix G. Additionally, Kerry Gunther and Doug Smith, wolf researcher in Yellowstone National Park (YNP), reported on the interactions between gray wolves ( Canis lupus ) and female grizzly bears with young. They report that of 15 interactions between these 2 carnivores, 8 involve d females with COY. They observed 2 incidents where cubs were killed by wolves at ungulate carcasses (Appendix H). The annual reports of the IGBST summarize annual data collection. Because additional information can be obtained after publication, data summaries are subject to change. For that reason, data analyses and summaries presented in this report supersede all previously published data. The study area and sampling techniques are reported by Blanchard (1985), Mattson et al. (1991 a ), and Haroldson et al. (1998).

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2026

Final project peport for “Mapping riparian vegetation response to climate change on the San Carlos Apache Reservation and Upper Gila River watershed to inform restoration priorities: 1935 to present – Phase 2: Focus on tamarisk vegetation”

Riparian ecosystems play a critical role in supporting wildlife habitats, maintaining water quality, and sustaining ecological resilience in arid landscapes. In the Upper Gila River level-4 Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC-4; Identification Number – 1504) watershed of Arizona and New Mexico, and across areas of the San Carlos Apache Tribe of the San Carlos Apache Reservation (hereafter, Tribe/Tribal – entity; or Reservation - place), riparian ecosystems have been substantially altered by the widespread expansion of tamarisk ( Tamarix spp.), an invasive and non-native riparian species. Tamarisk has high water use and increased flammability, making it a growing concern as droughts intensify across the southwestern United States (U.S.). Recent research indicates that tamarisk is increasingly stressed under prolonged drought conditions, which can elevate wildfire risk and further degrade riparian habitat. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Western Geographic Science Center, in collaboration with the Tribe, developed remote sensing–based tools to map riparian vegetation composition and monitor vegetation condition over time. These tools enable accurate identification of tamarisk extent, detection of vegetation stress, and comparison with native species such as cottonwood and willow. This information directly supports restoration and management actions, including targeted tamarisk removal, protection of endangered species habitat, and prioritization of areas for native vegetation recovery. The tools also provide insight into how riparian vegetation responds to changing climate and hydrologic conditions, strengthening long-term planning for riparian forest management. Findings from this work demonstrate that riparian vegetation responses vary across river systems, indicating differences in plant composition and hydro-climatic conditions. Tamarisk on both the Gila and San Carlos Rivers generally exhibit greater declines in greenness in response to higher temperature as well as lower precipitation and river flow, while cottonwood ( Populus fremontii ) and willow (Salix spp.) are particularly sensitive to changes in discharge along the San Carlos River and respond more directly to both high and low flows, with more moderate responses to precipitation and temperature. By providing actionable, science-based information, this research supports climate adaptation planning, wildfire risk reduction, and improved riparian ecosystem health, with benefits that extend beyond the Reservation to regional water and wildlife conservation efforts.

Arizona, New Mexico↗

USGS2026

Small creatures, big challenge: A review of current knowledge and assessment of research needs to inform water withdrawal management for the Duck River's freshwater mussel fauna

The Duck River is a remarkable national resource, boasting outstanding biodiversity (Ahlstedt et al. 2017). It contains 151 fish species, over 60 mussel species, and 22 snail species, many of which are federally listed (Etnier and Starnes 1993; Johnson et al. 2013; Ahlstedt et al. 2017; Womble and Rosenberger 2025a). The Duck River watershed is at a pivotal time in its management and ecological history due to significant growth in human population and economic activity. The consequent increase in surface water demand presents challenges for sustainable water resource management. The Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation (TDEC) has permitted or proposed to permit eight water utilities to withdraw over 77 million gallons per day (mgd) from the Duck River, representing > 40% increase from previously permitted amounts (USFWS 2025). On November 20, 2024, Tennessee Governor Bill Lee signed Executive Order No 108 to ensure long-term stability of the Duck River watershed through balancing economic growth, water resource management, and environmental conservation. Some primary components of this plan are the creation of a Comprehensive Regional Drought Management Plan, the development of a Habitat Conservation Plan, and the establishment of the Duck River Watershed Planning Partnership (DRWPP). Although the planning partnership is not focused on a sole aspect of the Duck River, but the watershed as a whole, the mussel assemblages of the Duck River have been a particular focus due to their importance in providing ecosystem services, sensitivity to water quality, conservation status, and sensitivity to periodic drought conditions in this system. With multiple state and federal agencies involved in managing the Duck River’s unique water resources, a focused review on how future water management could affect the freshwater mussel communities in the Duck River will contribute to this process. Our objectives of this review are to: 1. Review the effects of changing flow regimes on mussels, with emphasis on the effect of droughts/low flows, highlighting key processes/factors affecting mussels. 2. Highlight critical data gaps that could allow future, evidence-based water management decisions in this system. 3. Propose research topics to address critical data gaps and enable evidence-based water management decisions that consider the needs of freshwater mussels. Freshwater mussels are a critical component of riverine ecosystems, providing ecosystem services including water filtration, nutrient cycling, and habitat provision (Vaughn et al. 2004; Haag 2012) that benefit human communities. Environmental flows, also referred to as ecological or e-flows, refer to the quantity, timing, and quality of water flows necessary to maintain the ecological health of rivers, wetlands, and other aquatic ecosystems (Acreman and Dunbar 2004; Acreman 2016). For freshwater mussels, environmental flows include maintaining a flow regime and associated water quality regimes that are favorable for both juveniles and adults while also seasonally supporting host fish and the survival of settling glochidia (i.e., larval mussels) in suitable environments (Gates et al. 2015). Freshwater mussels are adapted to the natural flow regime of their native streams, including seasonal variability in flows. As sedentary filter feeders, mussels require adequate water flow to provide oxygen and food (Allen and Vaughn 2009); however, they also require periods of low flow to increase access to fish hosts and to ensure juveniles are not displaced (Gates et al 2015). Mussels are sensitive to water quality conditions, including pollutants, sedimentation, and artificial alterations of temperature and pH (Strayer and Malcom 2012). Mussel community characteristics, including presence, abundance, and species richness, generally increase with stream size (e.g., stream order); however, responses to changes in flow conditions are often species-specific, and the magnitude and timing of extreme flow conditions have more predictive power for mussel community response than general changes in flow (Lopez and Vaughn 2021). Complex hydraulic variables, such as relative shear stress and Reynolds number, can be strong predictors of mussel community responses because they combine simple hydraulic variables (e.g., velocity, depth) with stream channel characteristics, such as substrate composition and dynamics. Droughts directly and indirectly affect mussels by influencing their physiology, behavior, reproduction, and ecosystem roles. Mass mussel die-offs during droughts and low water conditions are widely documented (Vaughn et al. 2015; Sousa et al. 2018; Dubose et al. 2019). Droughts can also lead to a shift in mussel community composition, with drought-tolerant species becoming more dominant while more sensitive species experience declines (Galbraith et al, 2010; Lopez et al. 2022; Vaughn and Atkinson 2025). Droughts affect mussels through direct mortality from stranding as well as physiological stress from altered water temperature and quality, reduced habitat and food availability and quality, increased predation and competition, disruption of reproductive cycles, and increased susceptibility to disease and pathogens. Although the effects of droughts, water withdrawals, and low flow conditions on mussels are an increasing area of study, there is a general paucity of data-driven consensus regarding optimal mitigation approaches and strategies (Cushway et al. 2024). Long-term management decisions regarding water withdrawals, particularly during extended or multi-year drought conditions, may consider factors beyond direct mortality such as the sublethal effects of drought and low flow conditions on freshwater mussels for a comprehensive understanding of the effects of prolonged low flows on freshwater mussels and aquatic communities.

Tennessee↗

USGS2001

Macroinvertebrate instream flow studies after 20 years: A role in stream management and restoration

Over the past two decades of refinement and application of instream flow evaluations, we have examined the hydraulic habitat of aquatic macroinvertebrates in a variety of conditions, along with the role of these macroinvertebrates in sustaining ecosystem integrity. Instream flow analyses assume that predictable changes in channel flow characteristics can, in turn, be used to predict the change in the density or distribution of lotic species or, more appropriately, the availability of useable habitat for those species. Five major hydraulic conditions most affect the distribution and ecological success of lotic biota: suspended load, bedload movement, and water column effects, such as turbulence, velocity profile, and substratum interactions (near-bed hydraulics). The interactions of these hydraulic conditions upon the morphology and behavior of the individual organisms govern the distribution of aquatic biota. Historically, management decisions employing the Physical Habitat Simulation (PHABSIM) have focused upon prediction of available habitat for life stages of target fish species. Regulatory agencies have rarely included evaluation of benthos for flow reservations. Although ‘taxonomic discomfort’ may be cited for the reluctant use or creation of benthic criteria, we suggest that a basic misunderstanding of the links between benthic macroinvertebrate and the fish communities is still a problem. This is derived from the lack of a perceived ‘value’ that can be assigned to macroinvertebrate species. With the exception of endangered mussel species (for which PHABSIM analysis is probably inappropriate), this is understandable. However, it appears that there is a greater ability to predict macroinvertebrate distribution (that is, a response to the change in habitat quality or location) and diversity without complex population models. Also, habitat suitability criteria for water quality indicator taxa (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera; the so-called ‘EPTs’) may also provide additional management options to stream regulators. The greatest application for macroinvertebrate criteria will be in low-order streams where a more immediate link to fish communities can be established. We present an example from Queens Creek, in North Carolina, USA, in which monthly allocations required to preserve the integrity of the benthic macroinvertebrate community were significantly higher than for the target benthic fish species, Cottus bairdi . In the months when both Cottus and community diversity of macroinvertebrates were the ‘bottleneck’ life stages, preservation of only fish species could result in an additional 5–25% loss in macroinvertebrate habitat. We suggest that, as there becomes an increased emphasis on maintaining macroinvertebrates as monitors of stream health, there will be a concurrent emphasis on incorporating hydraulic habitat conditions as a part of bioassessment.

Regulated Rivers: Research & Management↗

USGS2017

Multiscale guidance and tools for implementing a landscape approach to resource management in the Bureau of Land Management

The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) is implementing a landscape approach to resource management (hereafter, landscape approach) to more effectively work with partners and understand the effects of management decisions. A landscape approach is a set of concepts and principles used to guide resource management when multiple stakeholders are involved and goals include diverse and sustainable social, environmental, and economic outcomes. Core principles of a landscape approach include seeking meaningful participation of diverse stakeholders, considering diverse resource values in multifunctional landscapes, acknowledging the tradeoffs needed to meet diverse objectives in the context of sustainable resource management, and addressing the complexity of social and ecological processes by embracing interdisciplinarity and considering multiple and broad spatial and temporal perspectives. In chapter 1, we outline the overall goal of this report: to provide a conceptual foundation and framework for implementing a landscape approach to resource management in the BLM, focusing on the role of multiscale natural resource monitoring and assessment information. In chapter 2, we describe a landscape approach to resource management. BLM actions taken to implement a landscape approach include a major effort to compile broad-scale data on natural resource status and condition across much of the west. These broadscale data now provide a regional context for interpreting monitoring data collected at individual sites and informing decisions made for local projects. We also illustrate the utility of using multiscale data to understand potential effects of different resource management decisions, define relevant terms in landscape ecology, and identify spatial scales at which planning and management decisions may be evaluated. In chapter 3, we describe how the BLM Rapid Ecoregional Assessment program and Assessment, Inventory and Monitoring program may be integrated to provide the multiscale monitoring data needed to inform a landscape approach. We propose six core, broad-scale indicators of natural resource status and condition: the amount, spatial distribution, patch size and connectivity of ecosystems and wildlife habitats, and the pattern of existing development across the landscape. Additional supplemental broad-scale indicators may include fire return intervals, distributions of invasive species, and vulnerability of ecosystems to a changing climate. Landscape intactness is an additional derived indicator that is calculated from one or more of the core and supplemental broad-scale indicators. We then outline a process for assessing broad-scale indicators that is consistent with the overall BLM Assessment, Inventory, and Monitoring process, facilitating development of a multiscale natural resource monitoring program. Finally, we describe how broad-scale indicators of natural resource status and condition may guide field monitoring implemented through the BLM Assessment, Inventory and Monitoring program and help address complex management questions. In chapter 4, we consider the specific question of assessing the ecological integrity of rangelands across the western United States. We first define ecological integrity and its relation to land health. We then suggest that a combination of six local-scale indicators collected through field sampling at individual sites and five complementary broad-scale indicators together provide information on the composition, structure, and function of rangelands. The terrestrial monitoring indicators collected at the level of individual field sites are the amount of bare ground, vegetation composition (including invasive plants and plants of management concern), vegetation height, and the proportion of the soil surface in large intercanopy gaps. The broad-scale indicators are vegetation amount, distribution, patch size, connectivity, and productivity, along with the pattern of terrestrial development. Our suggested approach to quantifying ecological integrity focuses specifically on informing management of public lands for multiple resource uses, and illustrates how existing data collected through BLM monitoring and assessment programs may be used together to provide multiscale information on land condition across broad extents. In chapter 5, we develop a method for quantifying landscape intactness and apply this method to the western United States. Our multiscale index of landscape intactness is designed to be defensible, decomposable, and easy to understand. The foundation of the multiscale index of landscape intactness is the surface disturbance footprint of anthropogenic development, including energy and urban development, roads and railroads, cultivated croplands, surface mines and quarries, and energy transmission lines and pipelines. The index represents a gradient of anthropogenic influence as represented by development summarized at two spatial scales of analysis: 2.5 and 20 kilometers. We provide several example applications of the index, illustrating how these data may inform natural resource decisions at the spatial extent of BLM field and district offices, states, ecoregions, and the western United States. We find that 19.2 percent of lands managed by the BLM across the 17 western states of the conterminous United States had the highest landscape intactness. The largest intact areas occur on public lands at high elevations or in the Great Basin. We believe the frameworks, processes, and analyses provided in this report will improve the ability of the BLM to identify and evaluate potential direct and indirect effects of management actions (such as habitat restoration and renewable energy development), and assist the BLM in further implementing a landscape approach to resource management.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2024

Ecology of Lake Erie - Chemistry, plankton & planktivory: A synthesis

As with other large lake ecosystems worldwide, Lake Erie can be considered a moving target for management, owing to physicochemical and biological changes brought on by anthropogenic change, both planned (e.g. nutrient and fisheries management) and unplanned (e.g. climate change, invasive species, modified land-use activities). These changes have challenged efforts to conserve biodiversity, sustain exploitable resources, and maintain the integrity of services valued by society both within the Lake Erie basin and (Fraker et al., 2022; Fussell et al., 2016; Sinclair et al., 2021; Sinclair et al., 2023) and outside of it (Allan et al., 2013; Jenny et al., 2020; Sterner et al., 2017). Some of these changes and their ramifications for management were documented in the first of four AEHM special issues devoted to the Lake Erie ecosystem (the fourth issue of 2023, volume 26, issue 4; see overview by Ludsin et al., 2023). That special issue focused explicitly on nutrient inputs and availability in Lake Erie and the lower food web, including planktonic and benthic microbial (including cyanobacteria), algal, and invasive dreissenid mussel communities. Similar to the previous Lake Erie special issue, this second one has focused on documenting the state of the lake, providing ecological understanding that could potentially benefit management. While some overlap in topics exists between issues, the studies conducted herein were completely independent of those previous investigations and offer unique insights. Specifically, the contributions to this current issue center on: 1) dynamics of water chemistry in Lake Erie’s central basin (i.e. bottom hypoxia; Ackerman et al., 2024) and western basin (i.e. mercury; Starr et al., 2024); 2) changes in primary producer biomass (Lesht et al., 2024), cyanotoxins (i.e. microcystin; Zastepa et al., 2024), and water quality (e.g. water clarity and dissolved nutrients; Howell et al., 2024); and 3) larval fish foraging (i.e. Lake Whitefish; Coregonus clupeaformis; Amidon et al., 2024) and community structure and phenology (DeBruyne et al., 2024). Below we summarize the major findings of these papers and offer a synthetic perspective on the value of this research for understanding the state of Lake Erie and enhancing management.

Aquatic Ecosystem Health and Management↗

USGS2022

Golden Eagle (Aquila chysaetos)

The golden eagle ( Aquila chrysaetos ) is commonly recognized as an indicator of ecosystem health and was selected as an important indicator species for the ecological health of lands owned and managed by East Bay Stewardship Network (Network) partner agencies within the area of focus for this project (See map, Chapter 1). Based on national conservation goals and past and current golden eagle research in the area of focus, the desired condition and trend for this indicator species are to: (1) maintain or improve site occupancy by territorial pairs (i.e., the proportion of sites surveyed with at least 1 pair of eagles), (2) maximize reproductive rate (i.e., the proportion of sites surveyed with at least 1 pair of productive eagles), and (3) minimize the occurrence of territorial subadults in the local breeding population. The condition and trend in these three primary metrics were assessed for golden eagles in the area of focus using data from a large-scale demographic study conducted in 2014–2021 by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and others. Overall, we found a condition of “caution” and an “unchanging” trend for golden eagles in the area of focus. Analyses of site occupancy and reproductive rate indicated that the local breeding population was unchanging (i.e., no evidence of increasing or decreasing time trends in these metrics during 2014–2021). However, a consistently high occurrence of territorial subadults (22%–35%) has been observed at breeding territories near the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area (APWRA) relative to occupied territories monitored in surrounding regions (~3%). The heightened occurrence of territorial subadults suggested a possible increase in the adult mortality rate of territorial eagles occupying the Mt. Diablo Range and Mt. Hamilton subregions in the area of focus. Thus, although no trends were detected in site occupancy or reproductive rate, caution is warranted given the high observed frequency of territorial subadults, which was predominately associated with pairs monitored near the APWRA. The USGS golden eagle study was conducted during a period of prolonged and severe drought in the area of focus, which has been shown elsewhere to reduce the reproductive rate of golden eagles. Although we detected no trends in reproductive rate, we identified a condition of “caution” for this metric in the area of focus given that annual estimates were relatively low during the study period, which primarily included years of severe drought conditions in west-central California. A primary goal of the analysis was to provide a benchmark against which managers can measure future changes and understand the likely trajectory of this species. Baseline data and analyses provided here can be used to identify projects that could help support golden eagle conservation. Given the constraint of using only existing and available data, this evaluation also identified areas where not enough was known to draw meaningful conclusions. Gaps in our understanding include the long-term effects of repeated, extreme climate events (e.g., drought and wildfire) on golden eagle demographics and population sustainability, refined estimates of eagle survivorship and sources of mortality, and whether the APWRA represents a population sink for golden eagles within the northern Diablo Range and surrounding regions. These are described as data gaps at the end of this chapter and may be areas to focus on for future research and collaborations among land managers.

Book chapter↗

USGS2023

Integrated science strategy for assessing and monitoring water availability and migratory birds for terminal lakes across the Great Basin, United States

Executive Summary In 2022, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) established the Saline Lake Ecosystems Integrated Water Availability Assessment (IWAAs) to monitor and assess the hydrology of terminal lakes in the Great Basin and the migratory birds and other wildlife dependent on those habitats. Scientists from across the USGS (with specialties in water quantity, water quality, limnology, avian biology, data science, landscape ecology, and science communication) formed the Saline Lake Ecosystems IWAAs Team. The team has developed this regional strategic science plan to guide data collection and assessment activities at terminal lakes in the Great Basin. The U.S. Congress requested the USGS to establish the Saline Lake Ecosystems IWAAs in response to historically low water levels at terminal lakes and associated wetlands across the Great Basin. Not all Great Basin terminal lakes have high salinity; however, all terminal lakes occur in endorheic, closed, basins with no surface-water outflow. Low lake levels across the Great Basin are the result of increased water use for agriculture and municipalities, drought conditions, and a warming climate. Great Basin terminal lake water extents have decreased by as much as 90 percent over the last 150 years, and terminal lake wetlands have decreased in area by as much as 47 percent since 1984. Lake elevations and wetland areas are primarily supported by freshwater inputs from snowmelt feeding upgradient rivers, streams, and springs. These freshwater inputs have been severely reduced because of continued and increased surface-water diversions and surface-water capture through groundwater pumping for agriculture, mining, and public supply as well as unprecedented drought conditions and warming temperatures related to climate change. Water quality, specifically salinity, is highly variable for terminal lakes of the Great Basin, and this variability is a result of the balance between freshwater inflow and evaporation. Variability of salinity at each of the terminal lakes can be affected by lake morphology, hydrogeologic features of the basin, annual variability in weather patterns, and changes in upgradient water use. Hypersaline terminal lakes provide abundant food resources such as brine shrimp and brine flies that support nesting and migrating birds. The density and composition of invertebrates are closely tied to lake salinity. Increased salinity can exceed the tolerance of invertebrates, severely limiting their biomass. In contrast, decreased salinity can lead to altered invertebrate community composition, reducing the abundance of optimal avian prey resources. Great Basin terminal lake ecosystems, including open-water and adjacent aquatic and terrestrial environments, provide resources necessary to sustain many animal populations throughout the year. Although a variety of taxa use terminal lakes, these ecosystems are of acute importance for the millions of migratory waterbirds (for example, shorebirds, wading birds, and waterfowl) dependent on the network of terminal lakes and their associated wetlands. Migratory birds transiting the Pacific and Central Flyways use Great Basin terminal lake ecosystems throughout the year to feed, nest, and transit between wintering and breeding ranges. As such, successful conservation of birds and their habitats requires coordinated management of water and habitats across the Great Basin network of terminal lakes and wetlands. The linkages between water availability and ecosystem vulnerability of terminal lakes in the Great Basin are not well understood. The vulnerability of terminal lakes is related to the factors driving change and adaptive capacity of the lake ecosystem. Saline lake ecosystems are vulnerable when changes in water quantity affect ecosystem function. Water quantity affects salinity, which affects food webs and habitat; these linkages can be investigated with water-quality and food web monitoring. Water quantity also affects inundated habitat, which can be quantified through remote sensing. It is necessary to quantify hydroclimatic and water use controls on water availability to terminal lakes to assess the response of the ecosystems. Remotely sensed data can provide a broad-scale and long-term synoptic view of terminal lake hydrologic characteristics, but ground observations are required to interpret changes in water quality and ecological functions. Some terminal lake basins have ongoing monitoring and modeling efforts within the Great Basin (for example, Great Salt Lake, Carson River Basin), yet most monitoring locations are hydrologically upgradient and too far away from lake inflows to provide an accurate assessment of hydrological trends for the lake ecosystems. Other terminal lakes have no long-term hydrological monitoring in their respective watersheds (for example, Lake Abert). Ecological data collection in the Great Basin is also insufficient to understand how many birds exist on the landscape, how birds use the mosaic of terminal-lake habitats as an interconnected system, and how Great Basin terminal lakes are linked to the larger continental system of the Pacific and Central Flyways. Across agencies and organizations, tracking bird movement, abundance, and diversity is inconsistent, with some lakes having once- or twice-a-year bird survey efforts and a few locations having more intensive ecological data-gathering efforts (for example, Great Salt Lake, Lake Abert). Bridging hydrological and ecological information gaps will improve understanding of the trends in water supply and water quality, habitat availability and usage, and impacts on vulnerable waterbird species, all of which would be used by managers in coordinated conservation of this unique network of terminal-lake habitats. The terminal lakes of the Great Basin are part of the Basin and Range physiographic province that extends from the Colorado Plateau on the east to the Sierra Nevada on the west, and from the Snake River Plain on the north to the Garlock fault and the Mojave block on the south. The Great Basin is larger than 650,000 square kilometers and encompasses most of the State of Nevada but also extends to western Utah, eastern California, southeastern Idaho, southwestern Wyoming, and southeastern Oregon. The climate is arid to semiarid with a hydrologic regime that is snowmelt dominated, providing as much as 75 percent of total annual runoff for the region. Terminal lakes of the Great Basin occupy the lowest areas of closed (endorheic) drainage basins, such that lake levels and water quality respond rapidly to surface-water inflow. Terminal lakes provide local and regional economic value to the States in the Great Basin, including mineral extraction, aquaculture, public works, and recreational uses. As an example, assessments of Great Salt Lake’s ecological health and economic impact find hemispheric importance for the former and regional importance for the latter. Great Salt Lake creates about 7,000 jobs and $2 billion of economic output per year, most of which would be lost with further declines in lake level. The objectives of this Science Strategy are threefold: (1) to identify how changing water availability affects the quality, diversity, and abundance of habitats supporting continental waterbird populations; (2) to highlight the scientific monitoring and assessment needs of Great Basin terminal lakes; and (3) to support coordinated management and conservation actions to benefit those ecosystems, migratory birds, and other wildlife. There are long-term hydrological, ecological, and societal challenges associated with terminal lakes ecosystems in the Great Basin. This Science Strategy benefits partners by providing a conceptual model, nested at different spatial extents, that identifies key scientific information needs to inform coordinated implementation of management and conservation plans within and among hydrologic basins to address these complex challenges.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2021

Cape Romain partnership for coastal protection

This final report summarizes activities, outcomes, and lessons learned from a 3-year project titled “Climate Change Adaptation for Coastal National Wildlife Refuges” with the Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) and local partners in the surrounding South Carolina Lowcountry. The Lowcountry is classified as the 10-county area encompassing the coastal plain of South Carolina (this report specifically focuses on Berkeley, Charleston, and Georgetown Counties). The goals of this work, sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center (SECASC), were to foster active engagement with stakeholders; to develop a comprehensive definition of adaptation problems faced by agencies, organizations, and individuals near the Cape Romain NWR that accounts for global change, local values, knowledge and perceptions; and to encourage social learning and building of effective networks and trust across South Carolina Lowcountry organizations and individuals. Although project scoping began at the scale of the Atlantic seaboard, by engaging with NWRs from Massachusetts to Florida, participating refuge personnel eventually selected the Cape Romain NWR to serve as a case study for testing our goals. The Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Conservation was established to address global change impacts at a regional level and includes representation from Federal and State resource agencies, local conservation nongovernmental organizations, and organizations representing underserved community interests. Research topics, originating from discussions with Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Conservation members, focused on quantifying key drivers of change including localized sea-level rise (SLR) predictions, estimates of coastal hurricane inundation as amplified by SLR, and urban growth trends and forecasts. These key drivers provided a foundation to engage stakeholders in planning exercises to begin a process of collective understanding and collaborative decision making. The goal of this process was to develop collective strategies of adaptation to enhance community and ecosystem resilience in the South Carolina Lowcountry. South Carolina’s Lowcountry is experiencing rapid environmental and social transformation because of SLR rates approaching twice the global average, chronic tidal flooding and catastrophic storm surges, erosion and loss of habitats that provide essential services to wildlife and humans, and increasing social polarization fueled by aggressive low-density urban growth and other forms of land conversion. To support characterizations of plausible future scenarios, we used available or, in some cases, developed new models to project future conditions of key environmental and social-economic drivers. Because of the imprecision of mean global SLR projections, the SECASC commissioned a climatological study to account for local conditions and multiple representative concentration pathways to project a tailored distribution of future sea levels. These projections were matched to SLR scenarios provided by existing models to anticipate the range of future coastal habitat changes in the South Carolina Lowcountry. SLR scenarios were also incorporated into existing storm-surge models, which do not account for alternate baseline sea levels, to project the local effects of future hurricanes. To evaluate the extent and effects of population growth and urban expansion, we relied on an existing urban-growth model to map the spatial distribution of land-conversion probabilities, the total area of which is predicted to increase twofold to threefold over the next 60 years. In addition to this simplified model, an econometric model is in development to account for nonlinear feedback dynamics in land value, land use, and ecosystem service production. Although not yet completed, the goals of this model are to produce more-detailed projections of growth dynamics and to allow predictions of development patterns resulting from alternate land-use planning policies and incentives. Collaborative planning for an uncertain future requires more than providing decision makers with information on future physical and ecological conditions; developing effective and consensual strategies must also integrate sociological values, multiple cultural perspectives, and an understanding of human behavior. To support broad stakeholder engagement in integrative approaches to adaptation planning, emphasis was placed on the importance of considering differences in how individuals perceive their environment and create meaning. Because cultural frameworks form the basis for perceptions and, ultimately, the behaviors of individuals and institutions, we describe a model of human behavior and how it can be used to understand the effect of cultural complexity and variation in perception on choices, behavioral change, and long-term maintenance of behaviors. We consider a model commonly used in the field of behavioral health that accommodates variation in human perception when describing stages of behavior and the dynamics of behavioral change. Tailoring communication and engagement activities to targeted stakeholders is likely to benefit from increased understanding of behavioral change processes. The complex nature of this problem limited the usefulness of a traditional decision-analytic approach, we explored alternative methods for engagement, collaborative learning and decision making. Recognizing that project partners and Lowcountry stakeholders may be at different stages of preparedness and interest level for modifying behavior as a function of global change, we facilitated a scenario-planning exercise to familiarize partners with this well-established approach for communicating the opportunities and threats arising under alternative, plausible futures. We developed narratives for four alternative South Carolina Lowcountry scenarios to be used in later strategic planning that focus on quantitative trends for three primary drivers with high impact and high uncertainty: manifestations of climate change, social-political shifts at a global level, and forces of local value and power structures. This scenario-planning exercise underscored the complex relation between the temporospatial scale of the production of ecological goods and services and the institutional scale at which they are managed. We then guided the partners through an assessment of the relevant strengths and weaknesses of the Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Protection, using the threats and opportunities characterized by each scenario to understand how the partnership might respond when attempting to meet conservation and societal objectives. The partnership identified key strengths including partnership experience, outreach and technical capacities, a substantial conservation land base, and high social cohesion in the South Carolina Lowcountry. Limited communication expertise, institutional inertia, and insufficient staffing and funding were recognized as important weaknesses across the partnership. By examining and scoring combinations of internal strengths and weaknesses and external threats and opportunities, the partnership developed sets of prioritized strategies to consider in the context of a given scenario. Although we had insufficient time to examine all scenarios in detail, the intent was to identify a portfolio of strategic actions to address threats and opportunities represented in multiple plausible futures. Top-ranking strategies encompassed a range of actions that focused on strengthening the conservation community and communicating the benefits of nature (that is, ecosystem services) to leveraging partnerships to expand land protection. This report also details the methods and preliminary results of several models developed or applied in support of this project. Two parcel-selection algorithms were used to evaluate anticipated habitat changes and patterns of urban growth to guide decisions on optimal conservation reserve design to protect habitat communities. One approach used a widely available planning software (MARXAN) to maximize conservation benefits near the Cape Romain NWR, whereas the other approach was a novel application of economic theory to account for uncertainty in future conditions and for the risks of unanticipated habitat loss. This latter model applies modern portfolio theory to estimate the risk of investing in any portfolio of land parcels (that is, candidate “reserves”) under climate-change uncertainty by quantifying the variation and spatial correlation of conservation benefits derived from each portfolio. We expanded the range of actions beyond simply whether or not to invest in a set of land parcels, an approach commonly used in spatial conservation planning, to also include consideration of divestment from currently protected lands. Such refinements allow for better accounting of system dynamics and can evaluate the benefits of flexible conservation tools such as rolling easements. Model results were conditional on a decision maker’s risk tolerance but highlighted general strategies of land conservation to increase future habitat representation beyond what is expected under the current protected land base. We built models that may help inform coastal planning by estimating salinity dynamics and the performance of oyster reef restoration efforts to predict the combined effects of global change and management of freshwater flows on coastal habitats and the processes that contribute to their resilience. These models can support restoration decisions by evaluating the expected benefits of site locations for shoreline protection and fisheries production. Lastly, we developed a spatially explicit economic model that predicts feedback dynamics among land value, land-use change, and effects on ecosystem service provision to explore zoning policies and incentives on urban growth and ecosystem services. We summarize these efforts with insights and considerations for the Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Protection to continue to engage stakeholders in effective adaptation planning. First, notions of place attachment (referred to as sense of place), and the role of culture in social discourse are increasingly being used to understand the complex interactions between society and the environment and how societies respond and adapt to climate change. Sense of place was a unifying theme whenever the future of the South Carolina Lowcountry was discussed. The contribution of the South Carolina Lowcountry’s environmental wealth, rich cultural heritage, and quality of life to sense of place has important implications for how adaptation planning might best be pursued. More community-based governance of the commons (in other words, natural and cultural resources held in common), in which broad stakeholder participation and power sharing are key elements, is considered important. This devolution of governance is characterized by polycentric institutions and self-organizing social networks that promote a local culture of knowledge sharing, problem solving, and learning. These so-called bridging organizations (or individuals) often provide the leadership necessary to bring together potentially disparate Government agencies and institutions, private organizations, and individuals in a collective process of problem solving. Our observations also suggest that the conservation community in the South Carolina Lowcountry views its activities as integral to the broader governance of social-ecological systems, in which responses to the forces of global change are mediated through culture, economics, and politics. Rather than directly competing with other interests, the South Carolina Lowcountry conservation community seems to embrace an interpretation of conservation in which the fundamental objective is the quality of human life rather than environmental protection. Fundamental to the types of governance reforms described above is the notion of coproduction, in which experts and users collaborate to develop a shared body of knowledge. In this approach, scientists work with stakeholders to help frame questions, design research, and collect and analyze data. Such sustained collaborations are increasingly believed to be an effective way to produce useable (or actionable) science. The emphasis on social learning, leveraging strong social networks, coordinating and deliberating among diverse stakeholders, and applying principles of adaptive management is an essential contribution to adaptive capacity. The diverse and robust set of scientific approaches, methods to help stakeholders collaborate in effective and goal-driven planning processes, and decision tools resulting from this project hopefully will assist Cape Romain NWR and its partners prepare for climatic, ecological, and social changes over the coming decades.

South Carolina↗