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At least 127 records · Page 7Linked to original sources
USGS2008

Preface

The idea for Landslides and Engineering Geology of the Seattle, Washington, Area grew out of a major landslide disaster that occurred in the Puget Sound region at the beginning of 1997. Unusually heavy snowfall in late December 1996 followed by warm, intense rainfall on 31 December through 2 January 1997 produced hundreds of damaging landslides in communities surrounding Puget Sound. This disaster resulted in significant efforts of the local geotechnical community and local governments to repair the damage and to mitigate the effects of future landslides. The magnitude of the disaster attracted the attention of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), which was just beginning a large multihazards project for Puget Sound. The USGS immediately added a regional study of landslides to that project. Soon a partnership formed between the City of Seattle and the USGS to assess landslide hazards of Seattle.

Reviews in Engineering Geology↗
USGS2011

Recovering from the ShakeOut earthquake

Recovery from an earthquake like the M7.8 ShakeOut Scenario will be a major endeavor taking many years to complete. Hundreds of Southern California municipalities will be affected; most lack recovery plans or previous disaster experience. To support recovery planning this paper 1) extends the regional ShakeOut Scenario analysis into the recovery period using a recovery model, 2) localizes analyses to identify longer-term impacts and issues in two communities, and 3) considers the regional context of local recovery.Key community insights about preparing for post-disaster recovery include the need to: geographically diversify city procurement; set earthquake mitigation priorities for critical infrastructure (e.g., airport), plan to replace mobile homes with earthquake safety measures, consider post-earthquake redevelopment opportunities ahead of time, and develop post-disaster recovery management and governance structures. This work also showed that communities with minor damages are still sensitive to regional infrastructure damages and their potential long-term impacts on community recovery. This highlights the importance of community and infrastructure resilience strategies as well.

Earthquake Spectra↗
USGS1998

Floods in south-central Texas, June 1997

Severe flooding in parts of 18 south-central Texas counties resulted from heavy rainfall during June 21-22, 1997. Of the 18 counties in the study area (fig. 1), all except Kimble, Gillespie, and Travis were declared Federal disaster areas. Kimble and Gillespie Counties were later declared eligible for disaster assistance. The majority of the property damage occurred along Cibolo Creek in Kendall and Guadalupe Counties, the Medina River in Bandera County, and the Llano River in Mason and Llano Counties (Jack Quarrels, Federal Emergency Management Agency, oral commun., 1997). The total property damage for which owners were eligible for disaster assistance was estimated to be $10.4 million (Jack Quarrels, written commun., 1997). Several rain gages and streamflow-gaging stations located in the 18-county area were available for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, to assess the magnitude and historical perspective of the flooding. This fact sheet summarizes maximum rainfall and streamflow and associated recurrence intervals for selected rain gages and streamflow-gaging stations (fig. 1) in the 18-county study area during June 21-23, 1997.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2022

Louisiana and Landsat

Louisiana holds a unique historical, economic, and cultural position in the national consciousness. Its off-shore oil operations help fuel the U.S. economy. The Port of South Louisiana is the busiest in the United States by cargo volume; the nearby Port of New Orleans is the sixth busiest. The former French and Spanish colony served as a key connection to the Caribbean long before U.S. independence, and Louisiana’s multinational effects soon melded into a Creole culture that had an outsized effect on America. That heritage remains a powerful draw for the tourism industry in Louisiana. Gulf Coast breezes carry the aromas of tropical flowers, sweet beignets, and savory crawfish through the 13 colorful blocks of New Orleans’ French Quarter. Interwoven with the sounds of jazz, rock, country music, and zydeco, the city’s charms delight more than 18 million visitors each year. The proximity of the Gulf Coast and the city’s elevation, however—just 6.5 feet above sea level—also offer an ominous warning of the ever-present threat of climate change and natural disaster. Hurricane Katrina battered New Orleans in 2005, an incident tied to more than 1,800 deaths that marks one of the most notorious U.S. weather-related tragedies in the 21st century. Environmental changes have amplified threats from tropical storms. Through more frequent and powerful storms, sea level rise threatens low-lying areas such as Lake Charles and creates unpredictable weather patterns that threaten the cities and agricultural operations to the north. Landsat data offer rich information that can aid in early warning, disaster response, and the monitoring of recovery from natural disasters. Its historic, unparalleled 50-year archive of repeat Earth observations also serves to guide resiliency plans and feeds modeling that can help States like Louisiana prepare for coming coastal and inland change. Here are just a few examples of how Landsat has been used to study and understand Louisiana.

Louisiana↗
USGS2007

10th Anniversary of the 1997 Red River Flood

The 1997 flood on the Red River was one of the worst natural disasters in recent history for many people and communities in the Red River of the North Basin. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), one of the principal Federal agencies responsible for the collection and interpretation of water-resources data, works with other Federal, State, local, tribal, and academic entities to ensure that accurate and timely data are available for making decisions regarding public welfare and property during natural disasters and to increase public awareness of the hazards that occur with such disasters.

General Information Product↗
USGS2009

Flood of June 26-29, 2006, Mohawk, Delaware, and Susquehanna River Basins, New York

A stalled frontal system caused tropical moisture to be funneled northward into New York, causing severe flooding in the Mohawk, Delaware, and Susquehanna River basins during June 26-29, 2006. Rainfall totals for this multi-day event ranged from 2 to 3 inches to greater than 13 inches in southern New York. The storm and flooding claimed four lives in New York, destroyed or damaged thousands of homes and businesses, and closed hundreds of roads and highways. Thousands of people evacuated their homes as floodwaters reached new record elevations at many locations within the three basins. Twelve New York counties were declared Federal disaster areas, more than 15,500 residents applied for disaster assistance, and millions of dollars in damages resulted from the flooding. Disaster-recovery assistance for individuals and businesses adversely affected by the floods of June 2006 reached more than $227 million. The National Weather Service rainfall station at Slide Mountain recorded storm totals of more than 8 inches of rainfall, and the stations at Walton and Fishs Eddy, NY, recorded storm totals of greater than 13 inches of rainfall. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream-gaging stations at Mohawk River at Little Falls, West Branch Delaware River at Hale Eddy, and Susquehanna River at Vestal, NY, among others, recorded peak discharges of 35,000 ft3/s, 43,400 ft3/s, and 119,000 ft3/s respectively, with greater than 100-year recurrence intervals. The peak water-surface elevation 21.47 ft and the peak discharge 189,000 ft3/s recorded on June 28, 2006, at the Delaware River at Port Jervis stream-gaging station were the highest recorded since the flood of August 1955. At the Susquehanna River at Conklin, NY, stream-gaging station, which has been in operation since 1912, the peak water-surface elevation 25.02 ft and peak discharge 76,800 ft3/s recorded on June 28, 2006, exceeded the previous period-of-record maximums that were set during the flood of March 1936. Documented peak water-surface elevations during the June 2006 flood at many study sites in the Mohawk, Delaware, and Susquehanna River basins exceeded the 100-year flood-profile elevations determined in the flood-insurance studies prepared by the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2023

The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) Scenario Retrospective 2006–21

The U.S. Geological Survey Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) Project has created four major hazard scenarios—ShakeOut, ARkStorm, Tsunami Scenario, and HayWired—with multidisciplinary teams of scientists, academics, and practitioners. By presenting a clear and highly detailed narrative of potential damage from earthquakes, tsunamis, and winter storms, the scenarios are intended to foster science-based preparedness strategies and disaster risk reduction innovations. This evaluation explores the presence of these scenarios in cultures of preparedness and their role in disaster risk reduction, and reports barriers and enablers to creating and using these scenarios. To do this, the evaluation team developed a mixed-methods study that includes background research for each scenario, qualitative interviews, data collection of media and academic engagement, and examples of SAFRR scenario use in hazard planning. The data collection led to the development of a hazard scenario evaluation tool that combines theories from multiple disciplines to create a best practice set of categories that aid in scenario use and efficacy. The evaluation tool categories—actionable, longitudinal, educational, relevant, and thorough—are organized as a series of checklists that are used to determine how the scenario planners prioritized different aspects of the scenarios to achieve their goals. The tool could also be used to aid scenario planning for other regional disaster risk reduction scenarios of a similar scope. Findings from this evaluation include detailed narratives of scenario use over time, demonstrating that the scenarios have continued to be useful in hazard planning and preparedness across the globe. Examples of use include using the scenarios to advocate for resilient building and development policy, to promote hazard response exercises, and as source data for the development of new hazard models and science. The scenarios themselves are innovative, both in the hazard science created for scenario development and in their branding and public engagement as U.S. Geological Survey products. This SAFFR retrospective is a descriptive evaluation and does not formally address the effects of the scenarios. Nevertheless, this report does include evidence of scenario affects as discovered through qualitative interviews and research, which is presented to explore how the SAFRR scenarios have been received by cultures of preparedness.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2012

Elevation uncertainty in coastal inundation hazard assessments

Coastal inundation has been identified as an important natural hazard that affects densely populated and built-up areas (Subcommittee on Disaster Reduction, 2008). Inundation, or coastal flooding, can result from various physical processes, including storm surges, tsunamis, intense precipitation events, and extreme high tides. Such events cause quickly rising water levels. When rapidly rising water levels overwhelm flood defenses, especially in heavily populated areas, the potential of the hazard is realized and a natural disaster results. Two noteworthy recent examples of such natural disasters resulting from coastal inundation are the Hurricane Katrina storm surge in 2005 along the Gulf of Mexico coast in the United States, and the tsunami in northern Japan in 2011. Longer term, slowly varying processes such as land subsidence (Committee on Floodplain Mapping Technologies, 2007) and sea-level rise also can result in coastal inundation, although such conditions do not have the rapid water level rise associated with other flooding events. Geospatial data are a critical resource for conducting assessments of the potential impacts of coastal inundation, and geospatial representations of the topography in the form of elevation measurements are a primary source of information for identifying the natural and human components of the landscape that are at risk. Recently, the quantity and quality of elevation data available for the coastal zone have increased markedly, and this availability facilitates more detailed and comprehensive hazard impact assessments.

Book chapter↗
USGS2009

Optical satellite data volcano monitoring: a multi-sensor rapid response system

In this chapter, the use of satellite remote sensing to monitor active geological processes is described. Specifically, threats posed by volcanic eruptions are briefly outlined, and essential monitoring requirements are discussed. As an application example, a collaborative, multi-agency operational volcano monitoring system in the north Pacific is highlighted with a focus on the 2007 eruption of Kliuchevskoi volcano, Russia. The data from this system have been used since 2004 to detect the onset of volcanic activity, support the emergency response to large eruptions, and assess the volcanic products produced following the eruption. The overall utility of such integrative assessments is also summarized. The work described in this chapter was originally funded through two National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth System Science research grants that focused on the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) instrument. A skilled team of volcanologists, geologists, satellite tasking experts, satellite ground system experts, system engineers and software developers collaborated to accomplish the objectives. The first project, Automation of the ASTER Emergency Data Acquisition Protocol for Scientific Analysis, Disaster Monitoring, and Preparedness , established the original collaborative research and monitoring program between the University of Pittsburgh (UP), the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO), the NASA Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center (LP DAAC) at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center, and affiliates on the ASTER Science Team at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) as well as associates at the Earth Remote Sensing Data Analysis Center (ERSDAC) in Japan. This grant, completed in 2008, also allowed for detailed volcanic analyses and data validation during three separate summer field campaigns to Kamchatka Russia. The second project, Expansion and synergistic use of the ASTER Urgent Request Protocol (URP) for natural disaster monitoring and scientific analysis , has expanded the project to other volcanoes around the world and is in progress through 2011. The focus on ASTER data is due to the suitability of the sensor for natural disaster monitoring and the availability of data. The instrument has several unique facets that make it especially attractive for volcanic observations (Ramsey and Dehn, 2004). Specifically, ASTER routinely collects data at night, it has the ability to generate digital elevation models using stereo imaging, it can collect data in various gain states to minimize data saturation, it has a cross-track pointing capability for faster targeting, and it collects data up to ±85° latitude for better global coverage. As with any optical imaging-based remote sensing, the viewing conditions can negatively impact the data quality. This impact varies across the optical and thermal infrared wavelengths as well as being a function of the specific atmospheric window within a given wavelength region. Water vapor and cloud formation can obscure surface data in the visible and near infrared (VNIR)/shortwave infrared (SWIR) region due mainly to non-selective scattering of the incident photons. In the longer wavelengths of the thermal infrared (TIR), scattering is less of an issue, but heavy cloud cover can still obscure the ground due to atmospheric absorption. Thin clouds can be optically-transparent in the VNIR and TIR regions, but can cause errors in the extracted surface reflectance or derived surface temperatures. In regions prone to heavy cloud cover, optical remote sensing can be improved through increased temporal resolution. As more images are acquired in a given time period the chances of a clear image improve dramatically. The Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) routine monitoring, which commonly collects 4-6 images per day of any north Pacific volcano, takes advantage of this fact. The rapid response program described in this chapter also improves the temporal resolution of the ASTER instrument. ASTER has been acquiring images of volcanic eruptions since soon after its launch in December 1999. An early example included the observations of the large pyroclastic flow deposit emplaced at Bezymianny volcano in Kamchatka, Russia. The first images in March 2000, just weeks after the eruption, revealed the extent, composition, and cooling history of this large deposit and of the active lava dome (Ramsey and Dehn, 2004). The initial results from these early datasets spurred interest in using ASTER data for expanded volcano monitoring in the north Pacific. It also gave rise to the multi-year NASA-funded programs of rapid response scheduling and imaging throughout the Aleutian, Kamchatka and Kurile arcs. Since the formal establishment of the programs, the data have provided detailed descriptions of the eruptions of Augustine, Bezymianny, Kliuchevskoi and Sheveluch volcanoes over the past nine years (Wessels et al., in press; Carter et al., 2007, 2008; Ramsey et al., 2008; Rose and Ramsey, 2009). The initial research focus of this rapid response program was specifically on automating the ASTER sensor’s ability for targeted observational scheduling using the expedited data system. This urgent request protocol is one of the unique characteristics of ASTER. It provides a limited number of emergency observations, typically at a much-improved temporal resolution and quicker turnaround with data processing in the United States rather than in Japan. This can speed the reception of the processed data by several days to a week. The ongoing multi-agency research and operational collaboration has been highly successful. AVO serves as the primary source for status information on volcanic activity, working closely with the National Weather Service (NWS), Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), military and other state and federal emergency services. Collaboration with the Russian Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (IVS)/Kamchatka Volcanic Eruption Response Team (KVERT) is also maintained. Once a volcano is identified as having increased thermal output, ASTER is automatically tasked and the volcano is targeted at the next available opportunity. After the data are acquired, scientists at all the agencies have access to the images, with the primary science analysis carried out at the University of Pittsburgh and AVO. Results are disseminated to the responsible monitoring agencies and the global community through e-mail mailing lists.

Book chapter↗
USGS1990

The need for the International Decade of Natural Hazard Reduction

Natural disasters affect countires large and small, rich or poor, whatever their political persuasion. The toll exacted by natural calamities each year drains the human and economic resources of every nation and stands as one of the formidable barriers to national, regional, and world development. Over the last 20 years, natural disasters have killed nearly 3 million people and disrupted the lives of over 800 million others. In 2 years there were more than 50 serious natural disasters, including landslides in Italy, France, and Colombia; a typhoon in Korea; wildfires in China and the United State; a windstorm in England; grasshopper plagues in Africa's horns and the Sahel; tornadoes in Canada; devastating earthquakes in Soviet Armenia and Tadzhikistan; infestations in Africa; landslides in Brazil; and tornadoes in the United States.

Earthquakes & Volcanoes (USGS)↗
USGS2013

Modeling rain-fed maize vulnerability to droughts using the standardized precipitation index from satellite estimated rainfall—Southern Malawi case study

During 1990s, disaster risk reduction emerged as a novel, proactive approach to managing risks from natural hazards. The World Bank, USAID, and other international donor agencies began making efforts to mainstream disaster risk reduction in countries whose population and economies were heavily dependent on rain-fed agriculture. This approach has more significance in light of the increasing climatic hazard patterns and the climate scenarios projected for different hazard prone countries in the world. The Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) has been monitoring the food security issues in the sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and in Haiti. FEWS NET monitors the rainfall and moisture availability conditions with the help of NOAA RFE2 data for deriving food security status in Africa. This paper highlights the efforts in using satellite estimated rainfall inputs to develop drought vulnerability models in the drought prone areas in Malawi. The satellite RFE2 based SPI corresponding to the critical tasseling and silking phases (in the months of January, February, and March) were statistically regressed with drought-induced yield losses at the district level. The analysis has shown that the drought conditions in February and early March lead to most damage to maize yields in this region. The district-wise vulnerabilities to drought were upscaled to obtain a regional maize vulnerability model for southern Malawi. The results would help in establishing an early monitoring mechanism for drought impact assessment, give the decision makers additional time to assess seasonal outcomes, and identify potential food-related hazards in Malawi.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction↗
USGS2016

Infrastructure system restoration planning using evolutionary algorithms

This paper presents an evolutionary algorithm to address restoration issues for supply chain interdependent critical infrastructure. Rapid restoration of infrastructure after a large-scale disaster is necessary to sustaining a nation's economy and security, but such long-term restoration has not been investigated as thoroughly as initial rescue and recovery efforts. A model of the Greater Saint Louis Missouri area was created and a disaster scenario simulated. An evolutionary algorithm is used to determine the order in which the bridges should be repaired based on indirect costs. Solutions were evaluated based on the reduction of indirect costs and the restoration of transportation capacity. When compared to a greedy algorithm, the evolutionary algorithm solution reduced indirect costs by approximately 12.4% by restoring automotive travel routes for workers and re-establishing the flow of commodities across the three rivers in the Saint Louis area.

INCOSE International Symposium↗
USGS2024

Chitinozoan response to the ‘Kellwasser events’: Population dynamics and morphological deformities across the Frasnian–Famennian mass extinction

Fossil (zoo)plankton dynamics during Devonian ocean-anoxic and extinction events can shed light on the palaeoceanographic and geochemical processes that shaped the middle Palaeozoic biosphere. However, datasets on (Upper) Devonian marine palynology, illustrating such dynamics, remain underexplored. The type section of the Sweetland Creek Shale in Iowa (USA) offers a detailed conodont zonation for the upper Frasnian and across the Frasnian–Famennian boundary, records the Upper and Lower Kellwasser events and has pristine preservation of organic material, making this an ideal section to study the effects of this catastrophic event on chitinozoan zooplankton populations. A total of 3998 specimens were recovered, imaged and classified into 12 distinct species, 10 of which were previously unknown. This study demonstrates the unrealized potential of chitinozoans as a regional biostratigraphic tool in the Upper Devonian. The Lower Kellwasser Event is characterized by a drop in chitinozoan abundance and the run up to the Upper Kellwasser Event marks a period of rapid species turnover rates. Interestingly, every assemblage in this interval is nearly monospecific. Patterns of changing spine morphologies in Fungochitina pilosa , Ramochitina sp. A and Saharochitina sp. A are herein explored as potential ecophenotypic expressions. We identify Angochitina monstrosa as a new disaster species. The discovery of two teratological chitinozoans specimens, in combination with the presence of the disaster species Angochitina monstrosa and deformation in contemporaneous conodonts, supports our previous discovery that marine teratology is a feature of many Palaeozoic extinction events, possibly triggered by the injection of hydrothermal brines into the ocean.

Iowa↗
USGS2022

From data to interpretable models: Machine learning for soil moisture forecasting

Soil moisture is critical to agricultural business, ecosystem health, and certain hydrologically driven natural disasters. Monitoring data, though, is prone to instrumental noise, wide ranging extrema, and nonstationary response to rainfall where ground conditions change. Furthermore, existing soil moisture models generally forecast poorly for time periods greater than a few hours. To improve such forecasts, we introduce two data-driven models, the Naive Accumulative Representation (NAR) and the Additive Exponential Accumulative Representation (AEAR). Both of these models are rooted in deterministic, physically based hydrology, and we study their capabilities in forecasting soilmoisture over time periods longer than a fewhours. Learned model parameters represent the physically based unsaturated hydrological redistribution processes of gravity and suction. We validate our models using soil moisture and rainfall time series data collected from a steep gradient, post-wildfire site in southern California. Data analysis is complicated by rapid landscape change observed in steep, burned hillslopes in response to even small to moderate rain events. The proposed NAR and AEAR models are, in forecasting experiments, shown to be competitive with several established and state-of-the-art baselines. The AEAR model fits the data well for three distinct soil textures at variable depths below the ground surface (5, 15, and 30 cm). Similar robust results are demonstrated in controlled, laboratory-based experiments. Our AEAR model includes readily interpretable hydrologic parameters and provides more accurate forecasts than existing models for time horizons of 10–24 h. Such extended periods of warning for natural disasters, such as floods and landslides, provide actionable knowledge to reduce loss of life and property.

International Journal of Data Science and Analytic↗
USGS2016

Resetting the bar: Establishing baselines for persistent contaminants after Hurricane Sandy in the coastal environments of New Jersey and New York, USA

In the immediate aftermath of natural disasters, public health officials and other first responders engage in many activities to protect the public and ecosystems in the affected area. These activities include critical tasks designed to minimize adverse consequences resulting from chemical and microbial contaminant exposures, such as acute disease incidence and transmission. However, once these urgent priorities have been met and situations requiring immediate attention have been stabilized, questions regarding the potential longer term threats to humans and ecosystems associated with persistent contaminant exposures remain. Research conducted to address these questions is frequently challenged by the lack of available baseline contaminant information collected before the event for comparison and perspective. In addition, deployments of field crews and collection of environmental samples typically occur days, weeks, or months after the event. Consequently, during and in the aftermath of disasters, public health agencies commonly advise the public to disinfect water, avoid contact with disturbed infrastructure (such as sewer lines), and (or) refrain from use of recreational waters, with the general focus on acute health threats; however, the persisting effects of such releases on local recreational waters, fisheries, and other estuarine habitats are often undetermined.

New Jersey, New York↗
USGS2012

One hundred years of volcano monitoring in Hawaii

In 2012 the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO), the oldest of five volcano observatories in the United States, is commemorating the 100th anniversary of its founding. HVO's location, on the rim of Kilauea volcano (Figure 1)—one of the most active volcanoes on Earth—has provided an unprecedented opportunity over the past century to study processes associated with active volcanism and develop methods for hazards assessment and mitigation. The scientifically and societally important results that have come from 100 years of HVO's existence are the realization of one man's vision of the best way to protect humanity from natural disasters. That vision was a response to an unusually destructive decade that began the twentieth century, a decade that saw almost 200,000 people killed by the effects of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2016

Anticipating environmental and environmental-health implications of extreme storms: ARkStorm scenario

The ARkStorm Scenario predicts that a prolonged winter storm event across California would cause extreme precipitation, flooding, winds, physical damages, and economic impacts. This study uses a literature review and geographic information system-based analysis of national and state databases to infer how and where ARkStorm could cause environmental damages, release contamination from diverse natural and anthropogenic sources, affect ecosystem and human health, and cause economic impacts from environmental-remediation, liability, and health-care costs. Examples of plausible ARkStorm environmental and health concerns include complex mixtures of contaminants such as petroleum, mercury, asbestos, persistent organic pollutants, molds, and pathogens; adverse physical and contamination impacts on riverine and coastal marine ecosystems; and increased incidences of mold-related health concerns, some vector-borne diseases, and valley fever. Coastal cities, the San Francisco Bay area, the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, parts of the Central Valley, and some mountainous areas would likely be most affected. This type of screening analysis, coupled with follow-up local assessments, can help stakeholders in California and disaster-prone areas elsewhere better plan for, mitigate, and respond to future environmental disasters.

Natural Hazards Review↗
USGS2014

Strong influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on flood risk around the world

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant interannual signal of climate variability and has a strong influence on climate over large parts of the world. In turn, it strongly influences many natural hazards (such as hurricanes and droughts) and their resulting socioeconomic impacts, including economic damage and loss of life. However, although ENSO is known to influence hydrology in many regions of the world, little is known about its influence on the socioeconomic impacts of floods (i.e., flood risk). To address this, we developed a modeling framework to assess ENSO’s influence on flood risk at the global scale, expressed in terms of affected population and gross domestic product and economic damages. We show that ENSO exerts strong and widespread influences on both flood hazard and risk. Reliable anomalies of flood risk exist during El Niño or La Niña years, or both, in basins spanning almost half (44%) of Earth’s land surface. Our results show that climate variability, especially from ENSO, should be incorporated into disaster-risk analyses and policies. Because ENSO has some predictive skill with lead times of several seasons, the findings suggest the possibility to develop probabilistic flood-risk projections, which could be used for improved disaster planning. The findings are also relevant in the context of climate change. If the frequency and/or magnitude of ENSO events were to change in the future, this finding could imply changes in flood-risk variations across almost half of the world’s terrestrial regions.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗