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At least 127 records · Page 7Linked to original sources

Land cover, elevation, and precipitation predict distribution and hotspots of three bird species of concern in boreal Alaska

The boreal forest biome is an important breeding area for migratory birds and is undergoing rapid changes, including drying of wetlands, changes to vegetation composition, and human development. Many boreal bird populations are declining, but information is often lacking on how these species associate with habitat characteristics and thus how they may respond to changing conditions. We used a large point-count dataset to describe habitat associations and hotspots for three boreal species of concern in Alaska, USA: Tringa flavipes (Lesser Yellowlegs), Contopus cooperi (Olive-sided Flycatcher), and Euphagus carolinus (Rusty Blackbird). We used an N-mixture model to evaluate covariates of abundance and two components of detection (availability and perceptibility). We then used the estimated relationships with covariates to predict density of each species across the Northwestern Interior Forest (Bird Conservation Region 4) in Alaska, including identifying hotspots where density was predicted to be in the top 10% of all locations. T. flavipes and E. carolinus were associated with wetlands and mean values of June precipitation; T. flavipes were also associated with low elevation and recent fire; and C. cooperi was associated with needleleaf forest and moderate elevation. Hotspots for T. flavipes and E. carolinus usually overlapped, while hotspots for C. cooperi almost never overlapped with those of the other two species. Following ground-truthing, these predicted distributions could be used to indicate areas of high importance for species of conservation concern and thus inform management decisions and mitigation measures. Our results could also help identify areas that are likely to be important for these species in the future, given the rapid changes now occurring across the boreal biome in response to climate warming and drying.

Alaska

Migratory strategies across an ecological barrier: Is the answer blowing in the wind?

Background: Ecological barriers can shape the movement strategies of migratory animals that navigate around or across them, creating migratory divides. Wind plays a large role in facilitating aerial migrations, and can temporally or spatially change the challenge posed by an ecological barrier, with beneficial winds potentially converting a barrier to a corridor. Here, we explore the role wind plays in shaping initial southbound migration strategy between two populations departing from different locations along an ecological barrier. Methods: Using GPS satellite transmitters, we tracked the southbound migration of two populations of Short-billed Dowitchers ( Limnodromus griseus caurinus ) from breeding grounds in Alaska to wintering sites in coastal Mexico. The breeding grounds were positioned in distinct regions along an ecological barrier, the Gulf of Alaska. Between the two populations, we compared migratory timing, wind availability at, and tailwind support en route across the Gulf of Alaska. Results: Route choice and arrival timing to wintering sites differed markedly between the two populations: individuals departing from the more westerly site (King Salmon) left at the same time as those from further east (Beluga) but crossed the Gulf of Alaska farther west and arrived along the Pacific coast of Mexico an average of 19 days earlier than their counterparts. Dowitchers from both sites used a slight tailwind to cue departure, but once aloft over the Gulf of Alaska, birds from the more westerly site had up to ten times more tailwind assistance than birds from the more easterly one. Conclusions: The distinct migration strategies, and degree of wind assistance experienced, of these two populations demonstrates how differences in wind availability along migratory routes may form the basis for intraspecific variation in migration strategies with potential carryover effects. Future changes in wind regimes may therefore interact with changes in habitat availability to influence migration patterns and migratory bird conservation.

Alaska

Analysis and simulation of water-level, specific conductance, and total phosphorus dynamics of the Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge, Florida, 1995-2006

The Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee Wildlife Refuge (Refuge) was established in 1951 through a license agreement between the South Florida Water Management District and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) as part of the Migratory Bird Conservation Act. Under the license agreement, the State of Florida owns the land of the Refuge and the USFWS manages the land. Fifty-seven miles of levees and borrow canals surround the Refuge. Water in the canals surrounding the marsh is controlled by inflows and outflows through control structures. The transport of canal water with higher specific conductance and nutrient concentrations to the interior marsh has the potential to alter critical ecosystem functions of the marsh. Data-mining techniques were applied to 12 years (1995-2006) of historical data to systematically synthesize and analyze the dataset to enhance the understanding of the hydrology and water quality of the Refuge. From the analysis, empirical models, including artificial neural network (ANN) models, were developed to answer critical questions related to the relative effects of controlled releases, precipitation, and meteorological forcing on water levels, specific conductance, and phosphorous concentrations of the interior marsh. Data mining is a powerful tool for converting large databases into information to solve complex problems resulting from large numbers of explanatory variables or poorly understood process physics. For the application of the linear regression and ANN models to the Refuge, data-mining methods were applied to maximize the information content in the raw data. Signal processing techniques used in the data analysis and model development included signal decomposition, digital filtering, time derivatives, time delays, and running averages. Inputs to the empirical models included time series, or signals, of inflows and outflows from the control structures, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. For a complex hydrologic system like the Refuge, the statistical accuracy of the models and predictive capability were good. The water-level models have coefficient of determination (R 2 values ranging from 0.90 to 0.98. The R 2 for the specific conductance model is 0.82, and the R2 for the total phosphorus model is 0.51. The accuracy of the models was attributable to the quantity and quality of the available data. To make the models directly available to all stakeholders, an easy-to-use decision support system (DSS) called the Loxahatchee Artificial Neural Network Model (LOXANN) DSS was developed as a spreadsheet application that integrates the historical database, linear regression and ANN models, model controls, streaming graphics, and model output. The LOXANN DSS allows Refuge managers and other users to easily execute the water level, specific conductance, and phosphorous models to evaluate various water-resource management scenarios. The user is able to choose from three options in setting the control-structure flows: as a percentage of historical flow, as a constant flow, or as a user-defined hydrograph. Output from the LOXANN DSS includes tabular time series of predictions of the measured data and predictions of the user-specified conditions. A three-dimensional visualization routine also was developed that displays longitudinal specific conductance conditions. Two scenarios were simulated with the LOXANN DSS. One scenario increased the historical flows at four control structures by 40 percent. The second scenario used a user-defined hydrograph to set the outflow from the Refuge to the weekly average inflow to the Refuge delayed by 2 days. Both scenarios decreased the potential of canal water intruding into the marsh by decreasing the slope of the water level between the canals and the marsh.

Scientific Investigations Report

Random forest classification of multitemporal Landsat 8 spectral data and phenology metrics for land cover mapping in the Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Geospatial data and tools evolve as new technologies are developed and landscape change occurs over time. As a result, these data may become outdated and inadequate for supporting critical habitat-related work across the international boundary in the Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Bird Conservation Region (BCR 33) due to the area’s complex vegetation communities and the discontinuity in data availability across the United States (US) and Mexico (MX) border. This research aimed to produce the first 30 m continuous land cover map of BCR 33 by prototyping new methods for desert vegetation classification using the Random Forest (RF) machine learning (ML) method. The developed RF classification model utilized multitemporal Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager spectral and vegetation index data from the period of 2013–2020, and phenology metrics tailored to capture the unique growing seasons of desert vegetation. Our RF model achieved an overall classification F-score of 0.80 and an overall accuracy of 91.68%. Our results portrayed the vegetation cover at a much finer resolution than existing land cover maps from the US and MX portions of the study area, allowing for the separation and identification of smaller habitat pockets, including riparian communities, which are critically important for desert wildlife and are often misclassified or nonexistent in current maps. This early prototyping effort serves as a proof of concept for the ML and data fusion methods that will be used to generate the final high-resolution land cover map of the entire BCR 33 region.

Remote Sensing

Spring migration of mallards from Arkansas as determined by satellite telemetry

We used satellite telemetry to document spring migration phenology, routes, stopover regions, and nesting sites of mallards Anas platyrhynchos marked in Arkansas during the winters of 2004-2007. Of the 143 marked mallards that migrated from Arkansas, they did so, on average, by mid-March. Mallards flew over the Missouri Ozarks and 42% made an initial stopover in Missouri, where they used areas that had larger rivers (Mississippi River, Missouri River) embedded in an agricultural landscape. From this stopover region they either migrated directly to the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) or they migrated north to Minnesota where they either moved next to the PPR or to the north and east of the PPR. For those mallards (83%) that stopped for >1 d before entering the PPR, the average length at each stop was 12 d (SE = 0.90 d, range = 2-54 d). Mallards made more stopovers, made shorter migration movements, and took longer to move to the PPR in wetter than drier years. Mallards arrived in the PPR earlier in 2006 x - = 30 March, SE = 2.18 d) than in 2005 x - = 7 April, SE = 2.30 d). Females nested across nine Bird Conservation Regions. Nesting occurred most frequently in South Dakota (n = 9). The average date when females nested was 19 April (SE = 2.44 d, range = 12 March-26 May). Because many mallards headed for the large river corridors in Missouri for their first stopover, this region is an important spring migration stopover of continental importance to mallards and might be considered a focal area for conservation.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management

Expanding the North American Breeding Bird Survey analysis to include additional species and regions

The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) contains data for >700 bird species, but analyses often focus on a core group of ∼420 species. We analyzed data for 122 species of North American birds for which data exist in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) database but are not routinely analyzed on the BBS Summary and Analysis Website. Many of these species occur in the northern part of the continent, on routes that fall outside the core survey area presently analyzed in the United States and southern Canada. Other species not historically analyzed occur in the core survey area with very limited data but have large portions of their ranges in Mexico and south. A third group of species not historically analyzed included species thought to be poorly surveyed by the BBS, such as rare, coastal, or nocturnal species. For 56 species found primarily in regions north of the core survey area, we expanded the scope of the analysis, using data from 1993 to 2014 during which ≥3 survey routes had been sampled in 6 northern strata (Bird Conservation regions in Alaska, Yukon, and Newfoundland and Labrador) and fitting log-linear hierarchical models for an augmented BBS survey area that included both the new northern strata and the core survey area. We also applied this model to 168 species historically analyzed in the BBS that had data from these additional northern strata. For both groups of species we calculated survey-wide trends for the both core and augmented survey areas from 1993 to 2014; for species that did not occur in the newly defined strata, we computed trends from 1966 to 2014. We evaluated trend estimates in terms of established credibility criteria for BBS results, screening for imprecise trends, small samples, and low relative abundance. Inclusion of data from the northern strata permitted estimation of trend for 56 species not historically analyzed, but only 4 of these were reasonably monitored and an additional 13 were questionably monitored; 39 of these species were likely poorly monitored because of small numbers of samples or very imprecisely estimated trends. Only 4 of 66 “new” species found in the core survey area were reasonably monitored by the BBS; 20 were questionably monitored; and 42 were likely poorly monitored by the BBS because of inefficiency in precision, abundance, or sample size. The hierarchical analyses we present provide a means for reasonable inclusion of the additional species and strata in a common analysis with data from the core area, a critical step in the evolution of the BBS as a continent-scale survey. We recommend that results be presented both 1) from 1993 to the present using the expanded survey area, and 2) from 1966 to the present for the core survey area. Although most of the “new” species we analyzed were poorly monitored by the BBS during 1993–2014, continued expansion of the BBS will improve the quality of information in future analyses for these species and for the many other species presently monitored by the BBS.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management

Waterfowl research priorities in the northern Great Plains

It is necessary periodically to identify research priorities so that future research will be directed toward the most pertinent issues in waterfowl ecology and management. To that end, Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center convened a quorum of experts on the ecology of breeding waterfowl, the Waterfowl Working Group, to 1) develop a mission statement, 2) identify waterfowl research priorities in the northern Great Plains, and 3) determine the frequency for re-identifying research needs. Research needs (nonprioritized) identified by the group and described in detail herein included: 1) determine effects of landscape factors on demographics and recruitment of ducks in the Prairie Pothole Region; 2) develop, improve, or update estimates of important parameters used in existing models for management and planning; 3) evaluate waterfowl management activities at broad, regional scales; 4) direct studies at waterfowl species of concern; and 5) evaluate applicability of the bird-conservation-area concept to waterfowl. The Waterfowl Working Group will reconsider research priorities at 2-year intervals.

Wildlife Society Bulletin

The Summer Atlas of North American Birds

The North American Breeding Bird Survey comprises a network of regularly censussed, road-based survey routes and constitutes the most comprehensive set of data on the relative abundance and population trends of these birds during the summer months. Its value was highlighted in 1989, when the data were used to confirm suspected population declines in a number of species of neotropical migrants breeding in the northeastern United States and Canada. In this book Jeff and Amy Price and Sam Droege have used these data to create detailed, computer-generated maps showing the relative abundance of 450 species that summer in the contiguous United States and southern Canada. Tabular information on distribution hotspots for these, and a further 50 or so species too local in occurrence to map effectively, are also presented. As a data-based survey, the focus of the maps is on places where occurrence has been systematically confirmed over a number of years. As such, the maps provide a baseline for future and more regionally based studies. Supporting chapters provide details on the survey methodology, the mapping procedures used, and some current concerns in North American bird conservation.

Book

Population trends of North American sea ducks as revealed by the Christmas Bird Count

Relative to other waterfowl, sea ducks are not well understood, yet evidence from a variety of analyses suggests that as many as 10 of the 15 species of North American sea ducks may be declining in population. However, because of the difficulty of conducting surveys of breeding populations and the lack of range-wide winter surveys, few data are available to assess the population trends of sea ducks with confidence. We analyze Audubon Christmas Bird Count data using hierarchical modeling methods that control for varying effort among circles and over time. These procedures allow us to assess early-winter relative density patterns among states and Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) while also assessing trends in these regions and across the species North American range. Over the interval 1966 - 2003, continent-wide declines were observed in 1 of 11 species (the White-winged Scoter; -3.7%/yr). We compare CBC results to estimates of population change derived from the midwinter waterfowl survey conducted by the US Fish and Wildlife Service. The CBC does not effectively sample offshore populations of sea ducks; however, the CBC data can be used to assist in development of species-specific surveys, and CBC data can be used in combination with additional offshore sampling programs to better sample sea duck species.

Book chapter

Refuge management analyses: research needs for Muscatatuck National Wildlife Refuge

Muscatatuck National Wildlife Refuge, located in southeastern Indiana, was established by the Migratory Bird Conservation Commission in 1966. Land use planning for the Refuge formally began in 1971, and development of facilities designed in that planning effort is now nearing completion. As these facilities become operational, Refuge personnel will be manipulating water (both spatially and temporally) and other habitat components to achieve the joint Refuge goals of natural resource conservation and public use. This situation offers a unique opportunity to institute research and management studies designed to evaluate and enhance the effectiveness of the management regime in providing for the needs of migratory waterfowl and other wildlife resources.

Indiana

Evaluating the role of active management in mature Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) stands for songbird conservation

Forest birds, particularly those associated with late-successional forests, are of widespread conservation interest. Although birds are among the more widely studied taxa of forest wildlife, relatively few studies have examined the long-term effects of active management (i.e., intentional stand density reduction) on the forest bird assemblage. This is an important omission, as changes in stand structure and composition over the decades following harvesting may influence wildlife utilization of forest stands. We developed an observational study to evaluate forest bird response to stand structural development multiple decades following harvesting with differing levels of overstory density reduction, and in unmanaged stands. We focused, in particular, on songbirds and cavity excavating species associated with old-growth Douglas-fir forests, and the active management strategies that we examined – thinning and structural retention harvesting – were selected based on their potential to accelerate stand structural development. Our 18 mature stands (age range: 107–187 years) were located in the western hemlock zone of western Oregon, and bird surveys were conducted an average of 41 years and 22 years post-harvest in thinned and retention harvest stands, respectively. Poisson generalized linear models were formulated to evaluate the effects of management condition on forest birds. Although five species were associated with specific management conditions, relative abundance was not statistically different between unmanaged, thinned and retention harvest stands for a majority of the species in our analysis. Species richness was also relatively invariant across management conditions. Our results do suggest that retention harvesting adversely affects some songbird species associated with old-growth forests – Pacific-slope flycatcher ( Empidonax difficilis ) and Pacific wren ( Troglodytes pacificus ) for example - but our findings also indicate that retention harvesting has long-term benefits for birds associated with early-successional forests. This includes migrant species that have experienced significant population declines in Western North America over recent decades, such as Wilson’s and MacGillivray’s warblers ( Cardellina pusilla and Geothlypis tolmiei , respectively). Overall, our results imply that for many species of forest birds, including those associated with old-growth forests, managers have some flexibility in overstory density management where long-term species persistence is an objective. Equally significant, our results provide strong support for the application of variable retention harvesting as a tool for the conservation of bird species associated with early-successional forests, while also reinforcing the value of mature structural legacies for bird species associated with late-successional forests. While also reinforcing the value of mature structural legacies for birds associated with late-successional forests.

Oregon

Applying metapopulation theory to conservation of migratory birds

Metapopulation theory has proven useful for understanding the population structure and dynamics of many species of conservation concern. The metapopulation concept has been applied almost exclusively to nonmigratory species, however, for which subpopulation demographic independence—a requirement for a classically defined metapopulation - is explicitly related to geographic distribution and dispersal probabilities. Defining the degree of demographic independence among subpopulations of migratory animals, and thus the applicability of metapopulation theory as a conceptual framework for understanding population dynamics, is much more difficult. Unlike nonmigratory species, subpopulations of migratory animals cannot be defined as synonymous with geographic areas. Groups of migratory birds that are geographically separate at one part of the annual cycle may occur together at others, but co-occurrence in time and space does not preclude the demographic independence of subpopulations. I suggest that metapopulation theory can be applied to migratory species but that understanding the degree of subpopulation independence may require information about both spatial distribution throughout the annual cycle and behavioral mechanisms that may lead to subpopulation demographic independence. The key for applying metapopulation theory to migratory animals lies in identifying demographically independent subpopulations, even as they move during the annual cycle and potentially co-occur with other subpopulations. Using examples of migratory bird species, I demonstrate that spatial and temporal modes of subpopulation independence can interact with behavioral mechanisms to create demographically independent subpopulations, including cases in which subpopulations are not spatially distinct in some parts of the annual cycle.

Conservation Biology

Research priorities for migratory birds under climate change—A qualitative value of information assessment

The mission of the U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Adaptation Science Center is to provide actionable, management-relevant research on climate change effects on ecosystems and wildlife to U.S. Department of the Interior bureaus. Providing this kind of useful scientific information requires understanding how natural-resource managers make decisions and identifying research priorities that support those decision-making processes. Migratory bird management and conservation of migratory bird habitat are central components of the U.S. Department of the Interior’s mission. In particular, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has an intensive, complex decision-making process for identifying high-priority parcels of land that will contribute to migratory bird conservation through permanent acquisition or easement. Climate change introduces several uncertainties into this decision-making process, and additional climate change research should help to support more informed decision making regarding habitat acquisition. Not all climate change related uncertainties, however, will have a meaningful effect on acquisition decisions; therefore, understanding which uncertainties have the most potential to alter decision making is crucial. This document summarizes a multiyear effort to clarify the major sources of climate change uncertainty that affect migratory bird management and to articulate related research priorities. We worked with U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service staff to assess the primary ways in which climate change is likely to affect migratory birds and their habitats; to clarify uncertainties surrounding these effects; and to assess how uncertainties may affect habitat acquisition decisions. Using a modified structured decision-making approach, we assessed a set of hypotheses about how climate change will affect migratory birds and their habitats. Then, we used a qualitative value of information assessment to rank the most important topics for future research. The ranking process was built on an assessment of three primary characteristics: the magnitude of uncertainty, the topic’s relevance to habitat acquisition decision making, and the feasibility of reducing the uncertainty. Based on the results of this process, high-priority topics for future research include the following: The effects of rising temperatures on spatial distributions of migratory birds during the breeding and nonbreeding seasons; Climate-driven changes to avian community composition through homogenization and loss of specialists; The effects of decreased precipitation on abundance in the breeding season; and The effects of rising temperatures on abundance in the nonbreeding season. In addition to describing high-priority research needs, this document provides a summary of the methodology used to identify, assess, and rank uncertainties. This method was developed for a climate change related topic where a full quantitative value of information approach may not be feasible. The results and methodology described here may be useful for U.S. Geological Survey and other science-funding agencies interested in improving the applicability of their research to natural-resource management decision making.

Circular

Conserving migratory land birds in the New World: Do we know enough?

Migratory bird needs must be met during four phases of the year: breeding season, fall migration, wintering, and spring migration; thus, management may be needed during all four phases. The bulk of research and management has focused on the breeding season, although several issues remain unsettled, including the spatial extent of habitat influences on fitness and the importance of habitat on the breeding grounds used after breeding. Although detailed investigations have shed light on the ecology and population dynamics of a few avian species, knowledge is sketchy for most species. Replication of comprehensive studies is needed for multiple species across a range of areas. Information deficiencies are even greater during the wintering season, when birds require sites that provide security and food resources needed for survival and developing nutrient reserves for spring migration and, possibly, reproduction. Research is needed on many species simply to identify geographic distributions, wintering sites, habitat use, and basic ecology. Studies are complicated, however, by the mobility of birds and by sexual segregation during winter. Stable-isotope methodology has offered an opportunity to identify linkages between breeding and wintering sites, which facilitates understanding the complete annual cycle of birds. The twice-annual migrations are the poorest-understood events in a bird's life. Migration has always been a risky undertaking, with such anthropogenic features as tall buildings, towers, and wind generators adding to the risk, Species such as woodland specialists migrating through eastern North America have numerous options for pausing during migration to replenish nutrients, but some species depend on limited stopover locations. Research needs for migration include identifying pathways and timetables of migration, quality and distribution of habitats, threats posed by towers and other tall structures, and any bottlenecks for migration. Issues such as human population growth, acid deposition, climate change, and exotic diseases are global concerns with uncertain consequences to migratory birds and even lesscertain remedies. Despite enormous gaps in our understanding of these birds, research, much of it occurring in the past 30 years, has provided sufficient information to make intelligent conservation efforts but needs to expand to handle future challenges. ?? 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications

Grassland bird use of Conservation Reserve Program fields in the Great Plains

An enormous area in the Great Plains is currently enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP): 19.5 million acres (nearly 8 million ha) in Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. This change in land use from cropland to grassland since 1985 has markedly influenced grassland bird populations. Many, but certainly not all, grassland species do well in CRP fields. The responses by birds to the program differ not only by species but also by region, year, the vegetation composition in a field, and whether or not a field has been hayed or grazed. The large scale and extent of the program has allowed researchers to address important conservation questions, such as the effect of the size of habitat patch and the influence of landscape features on bird use. However, most studies on nongame bird use of CRP in or near the Great Plains have been short-lived; 83% lasted only 1-3 years. Further, attention to the topic seems to have waned in recent years; the number of active studies peaked in the early 1990s and dramatically declined after 1995. Because breeding-bird use of CRP fields varies dramatically in response both to vegetational succession and to climatic variation, long-term studies are important. What was learned about CRP in its early stages may no longer be applicable. Finally, although the CRP provisions of the Farm Bill have been beneficial to many grassland birds, it is critical that gains in grassland habitat produced by the program not be off set by losses of native prairie.

Wildlife Society Technical Review

Grassland bird use of Conservation Reserve Program Fields in the Great Plains

The area enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program in the Great Plains is enormous: nearly 18 million acres, or more than 7 million hectares, in Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. This change in land use has had a huge influence on grassland bird populations. Many, but certainly not all, grassland species flourish in CRP habitats. Responses to the program vary not only by species, but by region, year, vegetation composition in a field, and whether or not a field was hayed or grazed. Further, the large scale of CRP has allowed researchers to begin to address other important conservation questions, such as the effect of the size of habitat patch and the influences of landscape features. Although the CRP provisions of farm bills have been beneficial to grassland birds, it is critical that gains in grassland habitat induced by the program not be offset by losses due to sodbusting.

Technical Report

Using occupancy models of forest breeding birds to prioritize conservation planning

As urban development continues to encroach on the natural and rural landscape, land-use planners struggle to identify high priority conservation areas for protection. Although knowing where urban-sensitive species may be occurring on the landscape would facilitate conservation planning, research efforts are often not sufficiently designed to make quality predictions at unknown locations. Recent advances in occupancy modeling allow for more precise estimates of occupancy by accounting for differences in detectability. We applied these techniques to produce robust estimates of habitat occupancy for a subset of forest breeding birds, a group that has been shown to be sensitive to urbanization, in a rapidly urbanizing yet biological diverse region of New York State. We found that detection probability ranged widely across species, from 0.05 to 0.8. Our models suggest that detection probability declined with increasing forest fragmentation. We also found that the probability of occupancy of forest breeding birds is negatively influenced by increasing perimeter-area ratio of forest fragments and urbanization in the surrounding habitat matrix. We capitalized on our random sampling design to produce spatially explicit models that predict high priority conservation areas across the entire region, where interior-species were most likely to occur. Finally, we use our predictive maps to demonstrate how a strict sampling design coupled with occupancy modeling can be a valuable tool for prioritizing biodiversity conservation in land-use planning. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd.

Biological Conservation

A review of Bayesian belief network models as decision-support tools for wetland conservation: Are water birds potential umbrella taxa?

Creative approaches to identifying umbrella species hold promise for devising effective surrogates of ecological communities or ecosystems. However, mechanistic niche models that predict range or habitat overlap among species may yet lack development. We reviewed literature on taxon-centered Bayesian belief network (BBN) models to explore a novel approach to identify umbrella taxa identifying taxonomic groups that share the largest proportion of habitat requirements (i.e., states of important habitat variables) with other wetland-dependent taxa. We reviewed and compiled published literature to provide a comprehensive and reproducible account of the current understanding of habitat requirements for freshwater, wetland-dependent taxa using BBNs. We found that wetland birds had the highest degree of shared habitat requirements with other taxa, and consequently may be suitable umbrella taxa in freshwater wetlands. Comparing habitat requirements using a BBN approach to build species distribution models, this review also identified taxa that may not benefit from conservation actions targeted at umbrella taxa by identifying taxa with unique habitat requirements not shared with umbrellas. Using a standard node set that accurately and comprehensively represents the ecosystem in question, BBNs could be designed to improve identification of umbrella taxa. In wetlands, expert knowledge about hydrology, geomorphology and soils could add important information regarding physical landscape characteristics relevant to species. Thus, a systems-oriented framework may improve overarching inferences from BBNs and subsequent utility to conservation planning and management.

Biological Conservation