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At least 127 records · Page 7Linked to original sources

Source mechanism of long-period events at Kusatsu-Shirane Volcano, Japan, inferred from waveform inversion of the effective excitation functions

We investigate the source mechanism of long-period (LP) events observed at Kusatsu-Shirane Volcano, Japan, based on waveform inversions of their effective excitation functions. The effective excitation function, which represents the apparent excitation observed at individual receivers, is estimated by applying an autoregressive filter to the LP waveform. Assuming a point source, we apply this method to seven LP events the waveforms of which are characterized by simple decaying and nearly monochromatic oscillations with frequency in the range 1-3 Hz. The results of the waveform inversions show dominant volumetric change components accompanied by single force components, common to all the events analyzed, and suggesting a repeated activation of a sub-horizontal crack located 300 m beneath the summit crater lakes. Based on these results, we propose a model of the source process of LP seismicity, in which a gradual buildup of steam pressure in a hydrothermal crack in response to magmatic heat causes repeated discharges of steam from the crack. The rapid discharge of fluid causes the collapse of the fluid-filled crack and excites acoustic oscillations of the crack, which produce the characteristic waveforms observed in the LP events. The presence of a single force synchronous with the collapse of the crack is interpreted as the release of gravitational energy that occurs as the slug of steam ejected from the crack ascends toward the surface and is replaced by cooler water flowing downward in a fluid-filled conduit linking the crack and the base of the crater lake. ?? 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research

Waveform inversion of oscillatory signatures in long-period events beneath volcanoes

The source mechanism of long-period (LP) events is examined using synthetic waveforms generated by the acoustic resonance of a fluid-filled crack. We perform a series of numerical tests in which the oscillatory signatures of synthetic LP waveforms are used to determine the source time functions of the six moment tensor components from waveform inversions assuming a point source. The results indicate that the moment tensor representation is valid for the odd modes of crack resonance with wavelengths 2 L / n , 2 W / n , n = 3, 5, 7, …, where L and W are the crack length and width, respectively. For the even modes with wavelengths 2 L / n , 2 W / n , n = 2, 4, 6, …, a generalized source representation using higher-order tensors is required, although the efficiency of seismic waves radiated by the even modes is expected to be small. We apply the moment tensor inversion to the oscillatory signatures of an LP event observed at Kusatsu-Shirane Volcano, central Japan. Our results point to the resonance of a subhorizontal crack located a few hundred meters beneath the summit crater lakes. The present approach may be useful to quantify the source location, geometry, and force system of LP events, and opens the way for moment tensor inversions of tremor.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Using a non-physical behavioural barrier to alter migration routing of juvenile Chinook salmon in the Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta

Anthropogenic alterations to river systems, such as irrigation and hydroelectric development, can negatively affect fish populations by reducing survival when fish are routed through potentially dangerous locations. Non-physical barriers using behavioural stimuli are one means of guiding fish away from such locations without obstructing water flow. In the Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta, we evaluated a bio-acoustic fish fence (BAFF) composed of strobe lights, sound and a bubble curtain, which was intended to divert juvenile Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) away from Georgiana Slough, a low-survival migration route that branches off the Sacramento River. To quantify fish response to the BAFF, we estimated individual entrainment probabilities from two-dimensional movement paths of juvenile salmon implanted with acoustic transmitters. Overall, 7.7% of the fish were entrained into Georgiana Slough when the BAFF was on, and 22.3% were entrained when the BAFF was off, but a number of other factors influenced the performance of the BAFF. The effectiveness of the BAFF declined with increasing river discharge, likely because increased water velocities reduced the ability of fish to avoid being swept across the BAFF into Georgiana Slough. The BAFF reduced entrainment probability by up to 40 percentage points near the critical streakline, which defined the streamwise division of flow vectors entering each channel. However, the effect of the BAFF declined moving in either direction away from the critical streakline. Our study shows how fish behaviour and the environment interacted to influence the performance of a non-physical behavioural barrier in an applied setting.

California

Lake bed classification using acoustic data

As part of our effort to identify the lake bed surficial substrates using remote sensing data, this work designs pattern classifiers by multivariate statistical methods. Probability distribution of the preprocessed acoustic signal is analyzed first. A confidence region approach is then adopted to improve the design of the existing classifier. A technique for further isolation is proposed which minimizes the expected loss from misclassification. The devices constructed are applicable for real-time lake bed categorization. A mimimax approach is suggested to treat more general cases where the a priori probability distribution of the substrate types is unknown. Comparison of the suggested methods with the traditional likelihood ratio tests is discussed.

Applied Mathematics and Computer Science

Tracking changes in volcanic systems with seismic Interferometry

The detection and evaluation of time-dependent changes at volcanoes form the foundation upon which successful volcano monitoring is built. Temporal changes at volcanoes occur over all time scales and may be obvious (e.g., earthquake swarms) or subtle (e.g., a slow, steady increase in the level of tremor). Some of the most challenging types of time-dependent change to detect are subtle variations in material properties beneath active volcanoes. Although difficult to measure, such changes carry important information about stresses and fluids present within hydrothermal and magmatic systems. These changes are imprinted on seismic waves that propagate through volcanoes. In recent years, there has been a quantum leap in the ability to detect subtle structural changes systematically at volcanoes with seismic waves. The new methodology is based on the idea that useful seismic signals can be generated “at will” from seismic noise. This means signals can be measured any time, in contrast to the often irregular and unpredictable times of earthquakes. With seismic noise in the frequency band 0.1–1 Hz arising from the interaction of the ocean with the solid Earth known as microseisms, researchers have demonstrated that cross-correlations of passive seismic recordings between pairs of seismometers yield coherent signals (Campillo and Paul 2003; Shapiro and Campillo 2004). Based on this principle, coherent signals have been reconstructed from noise recordings in such diverse fields as helioseismology (Rickett and Claerbout 2000), ultrasound (Weaver and Lobkis 2001), ocean acoustic waves (Roux and Kuperman 2004), regional (Shapiro et al. 2005; Sabra et al. 2005; Bensen et al. 2007) and exploration (Draganov et al. 2007) seismology, atmospheric infrasound (Haney 2009), and studies of the cryosphere (Marsan et al. 2012). Initial applications of ambient seismic noise were to regional surface wave tomography (Shapiro et al. 2005). Brenguier et al. (2007) were the first to use ambient noise tomography (ANT) to map the 3D structure of a volcanic interior (at Piton de la Fournaise). Subsequent studies have imaged volcanoes with ANT at Okmok (Masterlark et al. 2010), Toba (Stankiewicz et al. 2010), Katmai (Thurber et al. 2012), Asama (Nagaoka et al. 2012), Uturuncu (Jay et al. 2012), and Kilauea (Ballmer et al. 2013b). In addition, Ma et al. (2013) have imaged a scatterer in the volcanic region of southern Peru by applying array techniques to ambient noise correlations. Prior to and in tandem with the development of ANT, researchers discovered that repeating earthquakes, which often occur at volcanoes, could be used to monitor subtle time-dependent changes with a technique known as the doublet method or coda wave interferometry (CWI) (Poupinet et al. 1984; Roberts et al. 1992; Ratdomopurbo and Poupinet 1995; Snieder et al. 2002; Pandolfi et al. 2006; Wegler et al. 2006; Martini et al. 2009; Haney et al. 2009; De Angelis 2009; Nagaoka et al. 2010; Battaglia et al. 2012; Erdem and Waite 2005; Hotovec-Ellis et al. 2014). Chaput et al. (2012) have also used scattered waves from Strombolian eruption coda at Erebus volcano to image the reflectivity of the volcanic interior with body wave interferometry. However, CWI in its original form was limited in that repeating earthquakes, or doublets, were not always guaranteed to occur. With the widespread use of noise correlations in seismology following the groundbreaking work by Campillo and Paul (2003) and Shapiro et al. (2005), it became evident that the nature of the ambient seismic field, due to its oceanic origin, enabled the continuous monitoring of subtle, time-dependent changes at both fault zones (Wegler and Sens-Schönfelder 2007; Brenguier et al. 2008b; Wegler et al. 2009; Sawazaki et al. 2009; Tatagi et al. 2012) and volcanoes (Sens-Schönfelder and Wegler 2006; Brenguier et al. 2008a) without the need for repeating earthquakes. Seismic precursors to eruptions based on ambient noise we

Book chapter

Tag retention and survival of juvenile bighead carp implanted with a dummy acoustic tag at three temperatures

Bighead carp Hypophthalmichthys nobilis and silver carp Hypophthalmichthys molitrix (together, the bigheaded carps) are invasive fishes in North America that have resulted in substantial negative effects on native fish communities and aquatic ecosystems. Movement and behavior of adult bigheaded carps has been studied previously using telemetry, while similar studies with juvenile bigheaded carps have yet to be attempted. Recent technological advances in telemetry transmitters has increased the availability of tags sufficiently small enough to implant in juvenile carps. However, the effects of surgical implantation of telemetry tags on juvenile bigheaded carps have not been evaluated. We determined tag retention and survival associated with surgical implantation of acoustic telemetry tags into juvenile bighead carp (range 128–152 mm total length) at three temperatures (13, 18, and 23°C). In addition, we assessed the effect of surgically implanted transmitters on the fitness, defined as changes in weight or critical swimming speed, of carp implanted with transmitters. Survival was high among tagged fish (85%) with 47% of tags retained at the conclusion of the 45‐day study. No substantial decline in fitness of the fish was observed in tagged fish compared to untagged fish.

Journal of Applied Ichthyology

Accounting for false-positive acoustic detections of bats using occupancy models

1. Acoustic surveys have become a common survey method for bats and other vocal taxa. Previous work shows that bat echolocation may be misidentified, but common analytic methods, such as occupancy models, assume that misidentifications do not occur. Unless rare, such misidentifications could lead to incorrect inferences with significant management implications. 2. We fit a false-positive occupancy model to data from paired bat detector and mist-net surveys to estimate probability of presence when survey data may include false positives. We compared estimated occupancy and detection rates to those obtained from a standard occupancy model. We also derived a formula to estimate the probability that bats were present at a site given its detection history. As an example, we analysed survey data for little brown bats Myotis lucifugus from 135 sites in Washington and Oregon, USA. 3. We estimated that at an unoccupied site, acoustic surveys had a 14% chance per night of producing spurious M. lucifugus detections. Estimated detection rates were higher and occupancy rates were lower under the false-positive model, relative to a standard occupancy model. Un-modelled false positives also affected inferences about occupancy at individual sites. For example, probability of occupancy at individual sites with acoustic detections but no captures ranged from 2% to 100% under the false-positive occupancy model, but was always 100% under a standard occupancy model. 4. Synthesis and applications. Our results suggest that false positives sufficient to affect inferences may be common in acoustic surveys for bats. We demonstrate an approach that can estimate occupancy, regardless of the false-positive rate, when acoustic surveys are paired with capture surveys. Applications of this approach include monitoring the spread of White-Nose Syndrome, estimating the impact of climate change and informing conservation listing decisions. We calculate a site-specific probability of occupancy, conditional on survey results, which could inform local permitting decisions, such as for wind energy projects. More generally, the magnitude of false positives suggests that false-positive occupancy models can improve accuracy in research and monitoring of bats and provide wildlife managers with more reliable information.

Oregon, Washington

Classification of lakebed geologic substrate in autonomously collected benthic imagery using machine learning

Mapping benthic habitats with bathymetric, acoustic, and spectral data requires georeferenced ground-truth information about habitat types and characteristics. New technologies like autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) collect tens of thousands of images per mission making image-based ground truthing particularly attractive. Two types of machine learning (ML) models, random forest (RF) and deep neural network (DNN), were tested to determine whether ML models could serve as an accurate substitute for manual classification of AUV images for substrate type interpretation. RF models were trained to predict substrate class as a function of texture, edge, and intensity metrics (i.e., features) calculated for each image. Models were tested using a manually classified image dataset with 9-, 6-, and 2-class schemes based on the Coastal and Marine Ecological Classification Standard (CMECS). Results suggest that both RF and DNN models achieve comparable accuracies, with the 9-class models being least accurate (~73–78%) and the 2-class models being the most accurate (~95–96%). However, the DNN models were more efficient to train and apply because they did not require feature estimation before training or classification. Integrating ML models into benthic habitat mapping process can improve our ability to efficiently and accurately ground-truth large areas of benthic habitat using AUV or similar images.

Michigan, Wisconsin

Application of electricity and underwater acoustics to clear fish from a navigation lock during maintenance

The presence of fish within navigation locks can introduce an environmental challenge for construction crews when maintenance is required. This study examined the effectiveness of a dual-deterrent fish herding technique using electricity and acoustic stimuli to reduce the abundance of fish within a navigation lock before a scheduled dewatering for maintenance. Fixed-location multi-beam imaging sonar was used to evaluate fish per minute (FPM) detections near the lock entrance before, during, and after the herding effort. Standardized mobile side-scan sonar surveys were also conducted before and after the herding to examine fish presence throughout the entire lock. Collectively, a 73% reduction in fish targets detected by side-scan sonar and a 43% reduction in FPM detected by imaging sonar were observed following the herding technique. Post-fish herding, 88% reduction in FPM >400mm and a 35% reduction in FPM <400mm were observed. Fish abundance within the lock chamber was reduced and did not result in construction delays, which was problematic and costly during previous dewatering events. Since data from this study are limited to a single lock dewatering and fish clearing event, caution should be taken with the extrapolation of these results. However, the applied methods show promise and may inform future fish clearing efforts to aid lock maintenance.

Illinois

Mapping of suspended sediment transport using acoustic methods in a Pantanal tributary

Generally, fluvial systems are used for different objectives including energy production, water supply, recreation, and navigation. Thus, many impacts must be considered with their use. An understanding of sediment dynamics in fluvial systems is often of value for a variety of objectives, given that erosion and depositional processes can change the fluvial system morphology and can substantially alter the fluvial environment. In this sense, sediment monitoring is important because it helps to explain and quantify sediment dynamics in the environment. Hence, this study presents an innovative sediment monitoring technique: the use of the acoustic Doppler current profiler, commonly used to obtain discharge measurements, to obtain suspended sediment concentration (SSC). This paper aims to describe the application of additional corrections to the ADP-M9 signal to obtain SSC from measurement campaigns that used the ADP only for discharge measurements. The analyses were based on traditional sediment sampling methods and discharge measurements, with the ADP-M9, from 7 field campaigns at the Taquari River, a major tributary from the Alto Paraguay Basin, in the Pantanal Biome, known as the largest freshwater wetland system in the world. The correlation was assessed considering the following: (a) the equipment frequency operation mode (Smart Pulse or Fixed Frequency) and (b) by checking the influence of the sediment attenuation coefficient. Furthermore, extrapolation was conducted in filtered and unmeasured areas of the ADP to map the suspended sediment concentration over the entire cross section. Results indicate that ADP correlations can be an effective tool for estimating SSC in the Taquari River when samples cannot be collected. Correlations could be applied to past and future ADP measurements made at the location where the correlation was created, as long as similar environmental conditions are present as when the correlation was developed. The described technique can expand the amount of sediment data available at a monitoring site even with reduced traditional sampling and by leveraging instruments used for other monitoring purposes.

Taquari River Basin

Resonance of a fluid-driven crack: Radiation properties and implications for the source of long-period events and harmonic tremor

A dynamic source model is presented, in which a three-dimensional crack containing a viscous compressible fluid is excited into resonance by an impulsive pressure transient applied over a small area ΔS of the crack surface. The crack excitation depends critically on two dimensionless parameters called the crack stiffness, C = ( b /μ)( L / d ), and viscous damping loss, F = (12η L )/(ρ ƒ d 2 α), where b is the bulk modulus, η is the viscosity, ρ ƒ is the density of the fluid, μ is the rigidity, α is the compressional velocity of the solid, L is the crack length, and d is the crack thickness. The first parameter characterizes the ability of the crack to vibrate and shapes the spectral signature of the source, and the second quantifies the effect of fluid viscosity on the duration of resonance. Resonance is sustained by a very slow wave trapped in the fluid-filled crack. This guided wave, called the crack wave, is similar to the tube wave propagating in a fluid-filled borehole; it is inversely dispersive, showing a phase velocity that decreases with increasing wavelength, and its wave speed is always lower than the acoustic velocity of the fluid, decreasing rapidly as the crack stiffness increases. The source spectrum shows many sharp peaks characterizing the individual modes of vibration of the crack; the variation of spectral shape, both in the number and width of peaks, is surprisingly complex, reflecting the interference between the lateral and longitudinal modes of resonance, as well as nodes for these modes. The far-field spectrum is marked by narrow-band dominant and subdominant peaks that reflect the interaction of the various source modes. The frequency of the dominant spectral peak radiated by the source is independent of the radiation direction. The frequency, bandwidth, and spacing of the resonant peaks are strongly dependent on the crack stiffness, larger values of the stiffness factor shifting these peaks to lower frequencies and decreasing their bandwidth. The excitation of a particular mode depends on the position of the trigger and on the extent of the crack surface affected by the pressure transient. Fluid viscosity decreases the amplitudes of the main spectral peaks, smears out the finer structure of the spectrum, and greatly reduces the duration of the radiated signal. The energy loss by radiation is stronger for high frequencies, producing a seismic signature that is marked by a high-frequency content near the onset of the signal and dominated by a longer-period component of much longer duration in the signal coda. Such signature is in harmony with those displayed by long-period events observed on active volcanoes and in hydrofracture experiments. The very low velocity which is possible in a crack with high stiffness ( C ≥ 100) also provides an attractive explanation for very long period tremor, such as type 2 tremor at Aso volcano, Japan, without the requirement of an unrealistically large magma container. The standing wave pattern set up on the crack surface by the sustained resonance in the fluid is observable in the near field of the crack, suggesting that the location and extent of the source may be estimated from the mapping of the pattern of nodes and antinodes seen in its vicinity. According to the model, the long-period event and harmonic tremor share the same source but differ in the boundary conditions for fluid flow and in the triggering mechanism setting up the resonance of the source, the former being viewed as the impulse response of the tremor generating system and the latter representing the excitation due to more complex forcing functions.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth

Laboratory observations of fault strength in response to changes in normal stress

Changes in fault normal stress can either inhibit or promote rupture propagation, depending on the fault geometry and on how fault shear strength varies in response to the normal stress change. A better understanding of this dependence will lead to improved earthquake simulation techniques, and ultimately, improved earthquake hazard mitigation efforts. We present the results of new laboratory experiments investigating the effects of step changes in fault normal stress on the fault shear strength during sliding, using bare Westerly granite samples, with roughened sliding surfaces, in a double direct shear apparatus. Previous experimental studies examining the shear strength following a step change in the normal stress produce contradictory results: a set of double direct shear experiments indicates that the shear strength of a fault responds immediately, and then is followed by a prolonged slip-dependent response, while a set of shock loading experiments indicates that there is no immediate component, and the response is purely gradual and slip-dependent. In our new, high-resolution experiments, we observe that the acoustic transmissivity and dilatancy of simulated faults in our tests respond immediately to changes in the normal stress, consistent with the interpretations of previous investigations, and verify an immediate increase in the area of contact between the roughened sliding surfaces as normal stress increases. However, the shear strength of the fault does not immediately increase, indicating that the new area of contact between the rough fault surfaces does not appear preloaded with any shear resistance or strength. Additional slip is required for the fault to achieve a new shear strength appropriate for its new loading conditions, consistent with previous observations made during shock loading.

Journal of Applied Mechanics

Velocity anomalies: An alternative explanation based on data from laboratory experiments

Locations and velocities were calculated for microseisms occurring in samples of rock subjected to triaxial loading and injection of pore fluid. This was accomplished by analyzing arrival times of acoustic emission using an automatic first arrival picker. Apparent velocity anomalies were observed prior to both failure of intact samples and violent slip in samples containing saw cuts. Further analysis revealed that these fluctuations in calculated velocity were not due to changes in the true seismie velocity. Instead, variations in calculated velocity are shown to be related to sampling errors in picking first arrivals. The systematic picking of late first arrivals for small magnitude events was found to be a persistent bias resulting in low calculated velocities. This has encouraged the reexamination of earthquake records to determine how important sampling biases are in contributing to reported velocity anomalies. ?? 1978 Birkha??user Verlag.

Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH

Earthquake magnitude and source parameter estimation with a distributed acoustic sensing dataset in the Gorda subduction zone

Distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) systems offer a cost‐effective way to create large‐scale strainmeter arrays for seismological applications using fiber‐optic cables. DAS‐based strain measurements are known to be influenced by various factors, bringing into question their general reliability for accurate earthquake characterization. A 15‐km‐long DAS deployment in northern California was operational within 3 days of the 2022 M w 6.4 Ferndale earthquake and ran continuously throughout the aftershock sequence. We utilize these aftershock data to validate DAS‐based strain measurements in two ways. We first test the accuracy of DAS‐based magnitude estimates from peak dynamic strains by comparing them with magnitude and attenuation scaling relations derived independently from traditional borehole strainmeter (BSM) data. We demonstrate that DAS‐based magnitudes are comparable to BSM‐based magnitudes when corrections for variations in site response along the fiber‐optic cable are properly made. Magnitude errors are spatially correlated, potentially because of factors such as finite‐fault effects (e.g., stress drop) or more complex, unmodeled path attenuation or because of wave propagation effects in heterogeneous media. We then apply more advanced source characterization methodology to the DAS data using a time‐domain empirical Green’s function (EGF) deconvolution approach to measure details of the moment rate history. The EGF approach using DAS data depends on careful treatment of distorting factors such as anthropogenic sources of noise and optical phase wrapping but successfully isolates source spectra for moderate‐magnitude earthquakes: source spectral ratios obtained from DAS data, broadband seismometer data, and BSM data in the same region show consistent results, revealing differences in directivity and spectral shape among earthquakes. Although further research is needed to refine source‐time‐function estimation techniques for DAS data, particularly for larger magnitude events, these case studies demonstrate the clear potential of DAS for earthquake source characterization.

California

Amphibian monitoring in hardwood forests: Optimizing methods for contaminant‐based compensatory restorations

Amphibians such as frogs, toads, and salamanders provide important services in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems and have been proposed as useful indicators of progress and success for ecological restoration projects. Limited guidance is available, however, on the costs and benefits of different amphibian monitoring techniques that might be applied to sites restored in compensation for contaminant injury. We used a variety of methods to document the amphibian communities present at 4 restored bottomland hardwood sites in Indiana, USA, and to compare the information return and cost of each method. For 1 method—automated recording units—we also modeled the effect of varying levels of sampling effort on the number of species detected, using sample-based rarefaction and Bayesian nonlinear (Michaelis–Menten) mixed effects models. We detected 13 amphibian species across the restored sites, including 2 species of conservation concern in Indiana—northern leopard frogs ( Lithobates pipiens ) and Blanchard's cricket frogs ( Acris blanchardi ). Sites across a range of restoration ages demonstrated encouraging returns of amphibian communities. Although more mature sites showed greater species richness, recently restored sites still provided important habitat for amphibians, including species of conservation concern. Among the 4 methods compared, amphibian rapid assessment yielded the highest number of species detected and the greatest catch per unit effort, with the lowest per-site cost. Our analysis of level-of-effort effects in the rarefied acoustic data found that number of nights sampled was a better predictor of observed species richness than the number of hours sampled within a night or minutes sampled within an hour. These data will assist restoration practitioners in selecting amphibian monitoring methods appropriate for their site characteristics and budget.

Indiana

Techniques and equipment required for precise stream gaging in tide-affected fresh-water reaches of the Sacramento River, California

Current-meter measurements of high accuracy will be required for calibration of an acoustic flow-metering system proposed for installation in the Sacramento River at Chipps Island in California. This report presents an analysis of the problem of making continuous accurate current-meter measurements in this channel where the flow regime is changing constantly in response to tidal action. Gaging-system requirements are delineated, and a brief description is given of the several applicable techniques that have been developed by others. None of these techniques provides the accuracies required for the flowmeter calibration. A new system is described--one which has been assembled and tested in prototype and which will provide the matrix of data needed for accurate continuous current-meter measurements. Analysis of a large quantity of data on the velocity distribution in the channel of the Sacramento River at Chipps Island shows that adequate definition of the velocity can be made during the dominant flow periods--that is, at times other than slack-water periods--by use of current meters suspended at elevations 0.2 and 0.8 of the depth below the water surface. However, additional velocity surveys will be necessary to determine whether or not small systematic corrections need be applied during periods of rapidly changing flow. In the proposed system all gaged parameters, including velocities, depths, position in the stream, and related times, are monitored continuously as a boat moves across the river on the selected cross section. Data are recorded photographically and transferred later onto punchcards for computer processing. Computer programs have been written to permit computation of instantaneous discharges at any selected time interval throughout the period of the current meter measurement program. It is anticipated that current-meter traverses will be made at intervals of about one-half hour over periods of several days. Capability of performance for protracted periods was, consequently, one of the important elements in system design. Analysis of error sources in the proposed system indicates that errors in individual computed discharges can be kept smaller than 1.5 percent if the expected precision in all measured parameters is maintained.

Water Supply Paper

A goodness-of-fit test for occupancy models with correlated within-season revisits

Occupancy modeling is important for exploring species distribution patterns and for conservation monitoring. Within this framework, explicit attention is given to species detection probabilities estimated from replicate surveys to sample units. A central assumption is that replicate surveys are independent Bernoulli trials, but this assumption becomes untenable when ecologists serially deploy remote cameras and acoustic recording devices over days and weeks to survey rare and elusive animals. Proposed solutions involve modifying the detection-level component of the model (e.g., first-order Markov covariate). Evaluating whether a model sufficiently accounts for correlation is imperative, but clear guidance for practitioners is lacking. Currently, an omnibus goodnessof- fit test using a chi-square discrepancy measure on unique detection histories is available for occupancy models (MacKenzie and Bailey, Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics, 9, 2004, 300; hereafter, MacKenzie&ndash; Bailey test). We propose a join count summary measure adapted from spatial statistics to directly assess correlation after fitting a model. We motivate our work with a dataset of multinight bat call recordings from a pilot study for the North American Bat Monitoring Program. We found in simulations that our join count test was more reliable than the MacKenzie&ndash;Bailey test for detecting inadequacy of a model that assumed independence, particularly when serial correlation was low to moderate. A model that included a Markov-structured detection-level covariate produced unbiased occupancy estimates except in the presence of strong serial correlation and a revisit design consisting only of temporal replicates. When applied to two common bat species, our approach illustrates that sophisticated models do not guarantee adequate fit to real data, underscoring the importance of model assessment. Our join count test provides a widely applicable goodness-of-fit test and specifically evaluates occupancy model lack of fit related to correlation among detections within a sample unit. Our diagnostic tool is available for practitioners that serially deploy survey equipment as a way to achieve cost savings.

Ecology and Evolution

Laboratory generated M -6 earthquakes

We consider whether mm-scale earthquake-like seismic events generated in laboratory experiments are consistent with our understanding of the physics of larger earthquakes. This work focuses on a population of 48 very small shocks that are foreshocks and aftershocks of stick–slip events occurring on a 2.0 m by 0.4 m simulated strike-slip fault cut through a large granite sample. Unlike the larger stick–slip events that rupture the entirety of the simulated fault, the small foreshocks and aftershocks are contained events whose properties are controlled by the rigidity of the surrounding granite blocks rather than characteristics of the experimental apparatus. The large size of the experimental apparatus, high fidelity sensors, rigorous treatment of wave propagation effects, and in situ system calibration separates this study from traditional acoustic emission analyses and allows these sources to be studied with as much rigor as larger natural earthquakes. The tiny events have short (3–6 μs) rise times and are well modeled by simple double couple focal mechanisms that are consistent with left-lateral slip occurring on a mm-scale patch of the precut fault surface. The repeatability of the experiments indicates that they are the result of frictional processes on the simulated fault surface rather than grain crushing or fracture of fresh rock. Our waveform analysis shows no significant differences (other than size) between the M -7 to M -5.5 earthquakes reported here and larger natural earthquakes. Their source characteristics such as stress drop (1–10 MPa) appear to be entirely consistent with earthquake scaling laws derived for larger earthquakes.

Pure and Applied Geophysics