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USGS2002

North American box turtles: A natural history

Once a familiar backyard visitor in many parts of the United States and Mexico, the box turtle is losing the battle against extinction. In North American Box Turtles, C. Kenneth Dodd, Jr., has written the first book-length natural history of the twelve species and subspecies of this endangered animal. This volume includes comprehensive information on the species’ evolution, behavior, courtship and reproduction, habitat use, diet, population structure, systematics, and disease. Special features include color photos of all species, subspecies, and their habitats; a simple identification guide to both living and fossil species; and a summary of information on fossil Terrapene and Native uses of box turtles. End-of-chapter sections highlight future research directions, including the need for long-term monitoring and observation of box turtles within their natural habitat and conservation applications. A glossary and a bibliography of literature on box turtles accompany the text.

Book↗

USGS2017

Evaluating methods to assess the body condition of female polar bears

An animal's body condition provides insight into its health, foraging success, and overall fitness. Measures of body composition including proportional fat content are useful indicators of condition. Isotopic dilution is a reliable non-destructive method for estimating the body composition of live mammals, but can require prolonged handling times. Alternatively, bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) has promise as a quick method for estimating the body composition of live mammals, but measurements can potentially be affected by field conditions. Body condition indices (BCI) and energy density models can also be used to assess body condition based on morphological measurements, but may not reliably reflect an animal's energy stores. Here we evaluate BIA, BCI, and an energy density model in measuring the energy stores of female polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ). We examine the relationship between total body fat (TBF) derived from isotopic dilution to these alternative methods for 9 female polar bears from 14 captures on the sea ice of the southern Beaufort Sea in April 2014–2016. An energy density model, BCI, and BIA-derived measures of TBF were poor predictors of TBF derived from isotopic dilution. We suggest energy density, BCI, and BIA may not be predictive of an animal's body fat at fine scales (e.g., among individuals within the same sex, reproductive status, and season). In particular, BIA should provide similar measures of body composition as isotopic dilution, but it failed to reliably measure TBF of individual bears. These limitations in the precision of body condition measures should be considered when planning future studies.

Ursus↗

USGS1996

Measuring and monitoring biological diversity: Standard methods for mammals

Measuring and Monitoring Biological Diversity: Standard Methods for Mammals provides a comprehensive manual for designing and implementing inventories of mammalian biodiversity anywhere in the world and for any group, from rodents to open-country grazers. The book emphasizes formal estimation approaches, which supply data that can be compared across habitats and over time. Beginning with brief natural histories of the twenty-six orders of living mammals, the book details the field techniques—observation, capture, and sign interpretation—appropriate to different species. The contributors provide guidelines for study design, discuss survey planning, describe statistical techniques, and outline methods of translating field data into electronic formats. Extensive appendixes address such issues as the ethical treatment of animals in research, human health concerns, preserving voucher specimens, and assessing age, sex, and reproductive condition in mammals. Useful in both developed and developing countries, this volume and the Biological Diversity Handbook Series as a whole establish essential standards for a key aspect of conservation biology and resource management.

Book↗

USGS2021

Measuring adrenal and reproductive hormones in hair from southern Beaufort Sea polar bears (Ursus maritimus)

Polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) use sea ice to access marine mammal prey. In Alaska’s Southern Beaufort Sea, the declining availability of sea ice habitat in summer and fall has reduced opportunities for polar bears to routinely hunt on the ice for seals, their primary prey. This reduced access to prey may result in physiological stress with subsequent potential consequences to reproductive function (physiological changes that accompany reproduction), which can be measured via reproductive hormones. Hormone concentrations in hair can be used as a minimally invasive alternative to serum concentrations, which must come from animal captures. Hair samples also provide a long-term average measurement of hormone concentrations that is not influenced by short-term fluctuations like that of serum. The aim of this study was (1) to determine if a radioimmunoassay could be used to measure adrenal and reproductive hormones in polar bear hair, and (2) to determine what the relationship is between these hormones and other reproductive, condition, and demographic parameters of polar bears. We successfully validated this method for cortisol, progesterone, estradiol, and testosterone through the analysis of hair and serum of 141 free-ranging polar bears. We found that while hair cannot be used to estimate serum hormone concentrations during the breeding season, hormone concentrations in hair can be used to measure reproductive function in polar bears. Further, our findings support trends in previous studies measuring hormone concentrations in serum. We found that adrenal and some reproductive hormones were positively correlated in hair samples of females. Associations between hormone concentrations in hair and serum did not vary relative to reproductive status of adult females. Serum testosterone increased throughout the breeding season for adult males and was significantly associated with body mass index (BMI). Our research supports the use of hair as a measure of reproductive function in polar bears and allows us to monitor the future effects of climate change on polar bear physiology.

Alaska, Yukon↗

USGS1964

Management of predator populations with antifertility agents

The search for methods, other than lethal techniques, for controlling predatory animals causing economic losses to the livestock industry prompted investigation of antifertility agents to suppress reproduction. Diethylstilbestrol was selected for initial trials because of its demonstrated antifertility effect on rabbits, mink ( Mustela vison ), dogs, and cattle. In penned tests with stilbestrol, pregnancy was terminated in six coyotes ( C anis latrans ) fed a single 100-mg oral dose dissolved in tallow. A subsequent field trial was conducted in New Mexico on 20 townships, March 5-15, 1963. Five thousand (100 mg stilbestrol in ½ ounce of tallow) drop baits were placed wherever coyote sign was found. After a delay of 3 weeks to allow the drug to take effect, a collection of female tracts from the treated area and a reference area 25 miles away was made to measure and compare reproductive success. Of the 20 females in reproductive condition recovered from the treated area, only 4 had viable embryos, while reproduction was blocked in 16 specimens by failure of implantation or resorption of embryos. All of the 13 females in reproductive condition from the reference area would have produced pups as evidenced by viable embryos. Future tests are scheduled to determine effects on other species and to confirm results on coyotes under a variety of field conditions.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2000

Response of geese to aircraft disturbances

Low-flying aircraft can affect behavior, physiology, and distribution of wildlife (Manci et al., 1988), and over time, may impact a population by reducing survival and reproductive performance. Thus, it is important to identify the particular aspects of overflights that affect animals so that management strategies can be developed to minimize adverse effects. Waterfowl are particularly sensitive to low-flying aircraft (Manci et al., 1988) and respond at all stages of their annual cycle, including breeding (Gollop et al., 1974a; Laing, 1991), molting (Derksen et al., 1979; Mosbech and Glahder, 1991), migration (Jones and Jones, 1966; Belanger and Bedard, 1989), and wintering (Owens, 1977; Kramer et al., 1979; Henry, 1980). Waterfowl response can be quite variable both within and among species (Fleming et al., 1996). For example, response can vary with age, sex, and body condition of individual, habitat type and quality, and previous exposure to aircraft (Dahlgren and Korshgen, 1992). However, the most important factors influencing a response are aircraft type (Davis and Wiseley, 1974; Jensen, 1990), noise (Mosbech and Glahder, 1991; Temple, 1993), and proximity to the birds, as measured in altitude and lateral distance (Derksen et al., 1979; Belanger and Bedard, 1989; Ward et al., 1994). Wildlife managers can reduce impacts on a population by controlling or modifying these factors. In an experimental study conducted at Izembek Lagoon in southwestern Alaska in 1985-1988 (Ward and Stehn, 1989), we conducted planned aircraft overflights with control of aircraft type, noise, altitude, and lateral distance to flocks (hereafter called lateral distance) to measure behavioral response of fall-staging Pacific brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ) and Canada geese ( B. canadensis taverneri ) to fixed- and rotary-wing aircraft. These data were then used to develop predictive models of the relationship between aircraft type, noise, altitude, and lateral distance and the response of geese (Ward et al., 1989). We also developed a simulation model incorporating energy intake and daily energy costs to assess the long-term consequences of repeated overflights on the ability of brant to obtain sufficient energy reserves necessary for fall migration and over winter survival (Ward and Stehn, 1989).

Alaska↗

USGS2011

Seasonal productivity in a population of migratory songbirds: why nest data are not enough

Population models for many animals are limited by a lack of information regarding juvenile survival. In particular, studies of songbird reproductive output typically terminate with the success or failure of nests, despite the fact that adults spend the rest of the reproductive season rearing dependent fledglings. Unless fledgling survival does not vary, or varies consistently with nest productivity, conclusions about population dynamics based solely on nest data may be misleading. During 2007 and 2008, we monitored nests and used radio telemetry to monitor fledgling survival for a population of Ovenbirds ( Seiurus aurocapilla ) in a managed-forest landscape in north-central Minnesota, USA. In addition to estimating nest and fledgling survival, we modeled growth for population segments partitioned by proximity to edges of non-nesting cover types (regenerating clearcuts). Nest survival was significantly lower, but fledgling survival was significantly higher, in 2007 than in 2008. Despite higher nest productivity in 2008, seasonal productivity (number of young surviving to independence per breeding female) was higher in 2007. Proximity to clearcut edge did not affect nest productivity. However, fledglings from nests near regenerating sapling-dominated clearcuts (7–20 years since harvest) had higher daily survival (0.992 ± 0.005) than those from nests in interior forest (0.978 ± 0.006), which in turn had higher daily survival than fledglings from nests near shrub-dominated clearcuts (≤6 years since harvest; 0.927 ± 0.030) in 2007, with a similar but statistically non-significant trend in 2008. Our population growth models predicted growth rates that differed by 2–39% ( x¯ = 25%) from simpler models in which we replaced our estimates of first-year survival with one-half adult annual survival (an estimate commonly used in songbird population growth models). We conclude that nest productivity is an inadequate measure of songbird seasonal productivity, and that results based exclusively on nest data can yield misleading conclusions about population growth and clearcut edge effects. We suggest that direct estimates of juvenile survival could provide more accurate information for the management and conservation of many animal taxa.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2016

Extremes of heat, drought and precipitation depress reproductive performance in shortgrass prairie passerines

Climate change elevates conservation concerns worldwide because it is likely to exacerbate many identified threats to animal populations. In recent decades, grassland birds have declined faster than other North American bird species, a loss thought to be due to habitat loss and fragmentation and changing agricultural practices. Climate change poses additional threats of unknown magnitude to these already declining populations. We examined how seasonal and daily weather conditions over 10 years influenced nest survival of five species of insectivorous passerines native to the shortgrass prairie and evaluate our findings relative to future climate predictions for this region. Daily nest survival ( n = 870) was best predicted by a combination of daily and seasonal weather variables, age of nest, time in season and bird habitat guild. Within a season, survival rates were lower on very hot days (temperatures ≥ 35 °C), on dry days (with a lag of 1 day) and on stormy days (especially for those species nesting in shorter vegetation). Across years, survival rates were also lower during warmer and drier breeding seasons. Clutch sizes were larger when early spring temperatures were cool and the week prior to egg-laying was wetter and warming. Climate change is likely to exacerbate grassland bird population declines because projected climate conditions include rising temperatures, more prolonged drought and more intense storms as the hydrological cycle is altered. Under varying realistic scenarios, nest success estimates were halved compared to their current average value when models both increased the temperature (3 °C) and decreased precipitation (two additional dry days during a nesting period), thus underscoring a sense of urgency in identifying and addressing the current causes of range-wide declines.

Ibis↗

USGS1986

Effect of anosmia on reproduction in male and female wolves (Canis lupus)

Anosmia was produced in two female and three male wolves by transection of the olfactory peduncle and was confirmed by their inability to detect meat, urine, feces, anal-gland secretions, and fish emulsion. All operated animals continued to investigate the environment with their noses, to interact normally with other pack members, and to feed at levels which maintained presurgical body weights. No effect was found on reproductive physiology (females: estradiol or progesterone concentrations, ovulation, pregnancy or parturition; males: testosterone, testicular recrudescence or sperm numbers, motility or maturation). One anosmic female became dominant and although she urine-marked with a flexed leg, the rate was lower than typical for dominant females and perhaps contributed to her failure to pair-bond with the dominant male. One anosmic male raised-leg-urinated while competing for pack dominance and when kenneled away from other males. Precopulatory, copulatory, and maternal behavior were observed for one anosmic female and appeared normal. However, neither male that was sexually naive before surgery showed interest in proestrous or estrous females. The possibility that secondary degeneration of brain regions mediating sexual behavior was responsible for the failure of these males to respond was not supported. Not only was the lack of male sexual response the only serious deficit following transection, but the male which was sexually experienced prior to surgery did copulate successfully during his second postoperative breeding season despite continued anosmia. Chemosensory priming from female urine during the protracted proestrous phase, as well as urinary and vaginal odors during estrus, appear to be critical for induction of full sexual potency in sexually naive males. The importance of urine and vaginal secretions in the sexual response of experienced males is uncertain.

Behavioral and Neural Biology↗

USGS2013

Ecological feedbacks can reduce population-level efficacy of wildlife fertility control

1. Anthropogenic stress on natural systems, particularly the fragmentation of landscapes and the extirpation of predators from food webs, has intensified the need to regulate abundance of wildlife populations with management. Controlling population growth using fertility control has been considered for almost four decades, but nearly all research has focused on understanding effects of fertility control agents on individual animals. Questions about the efficacy of fertility control as a way to control populations remain largely unanswered. 2. Collateral consequences of contraception can produce unexpected changes in birth rates, survival, immigration and emigration that may reduce the effectiveness of regulating animal abundance. The magnitude and frequency of such effects vary with species-specific social and reproductive systems, as well as connectivity of populations. Developing models that incorporate static demographic parameters from populations not controlled by contraception may bias predictions of fertility control efficacy. 3. Many population-level studies demonstrate that changes in survival and immigration induced by fertility control can compensate for the reduction in births caused by contraception. The most successful cases of regulating populations using fertility control come from applications of contraceptives to small, closed populations of gregarious and easily accessed species. 4. Fertility control can result in artificial selection pressures on the population and may lead to long-term unintentional genetic consequences. The magnitude of such selection is dependent on individual heritability and behavioural traits, as well as environmental variation. 5. Synthesis and applications . Understanding species' life-history strategies, biology, behavioural ecology and ecological context is critical to developing realistic expectations of regulating populations using fertility control. Before time, effort and funding are invested in wildlife contraception, managers may need to consider the possibility that many species and populations can compensate for reduction in fecundity, and this could minimize any reduction in population growth rate.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2017

Contact and contagion: Probability of transmission given contact varies with demographic state in bighorn sheep

Understanding both contact and probability of transmission given contact are key to managing wildlife disease. However, wildlife disease research tends to focus on contact heterogeneity, in part because the probability of transmission given contact is notoriously difficult to measure. Here, we present a first step towards empirically investigating the probability of transmission given contact in free-ranging wildlife. We used measured contact networks to test whether bighorn sheep demographic states vary systematically in infectiousness or susceptibility to Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae , an agent responsible for bighorn sheep pneumonia. We built covariates using contact network metrics, demographic information and infection status, and used logistic regression to relate those covariates to lamb survival. The covariate set contained degree, a classic network metric describing node centrality, but also included covariates breaking the network metrics into subsets that differentiated between contacts with yearlings, ewes with lambs, and ewes without lambs, and animals with and without active infections. Yearlings, ewes with lambs, and ewes without lambs showed similar group membership patterns, but direct interactions involving touch occurred at a rate two orders of magnitude higher between lambs and reproductive ewes than between any classes of adults or yearlings, and one order of magnitude higher than direct interactions between multiple lambs. Although yearlings and non-reproductive bighorn ewes regularly carried M. ovipneumoniae , our models suggest that a contact with an infected reproductive ewe had approximately five times the odds of producing a lamb mortality event of an identical contact with an infected dry ewe or yearling. Consequently, management actions targeting infected animals might lead to unnecessary removal of young animals that carry pathogens but rarely transmit. This analysis demonstrates a simple logistic regression approach for testing a priori hypotheses about variation in the odds of transmission given contact for free-ranging hosts, and may be broadly applicable for investigations in wildlife disease ecology.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS2023

Frequent transitions in mating-type locus chromosomal organization in Malassezia and early steps in sexual reproduction

Fungi in the basidiomycete genus Malassezia are the most prevalent eukaryotic microbes resident on the skin of human and other warm-blooded animals and have been implicated in skin diseases and systemic disorders. Analysis of Malassezia genomes revealed that key adaptations to the skin microenvironment have a direct genomic basis, and the identification of mating/meiotic genes suggests a capacity to reproduce sexually, even though no sexual cycle has yet been observed. In contrast to other bipolar or tetrapolar basidiomycetes that have either two linked mating-type-determining ( MAT ) loci or two MAT loci on separate chromosomes, in Malassezia species studied thus far the two MAT loci are arranged in a pseudobipolar configuration (linked on the same chromosome but capable of recombining). By generating additional chromosome-level genome assemblies, and an improved Malassezia phylogeny, we infer that the pseudobipolar arrangement was the ancestral state of this group and revealed six independent transitions to tetrapolarity, seemingly driven by centromere fission or translocations in centromere-flanking regions. Additionally, in an approach to uncover a sexual cycle, Malassezia furfur strains were engineered to express different MAT alleles in the same cell. The resulting strains produce hyphae reminiscent of early steps in sexual development and display upregulation of genes associated with sexual development as well as others encoding lipases and a protease potentially relevant for pathogenesis of the fungus. Our study reveals a previously unseen genomic relocation of mating-type loci in fungi and provides insight toward the identification of a sexual cycle in Malassezia , with possible implications for pathogenicity.

PNAS↗

USGS2018

Effects of environmental conditions on reproductive effort and nest success of Arctic‐breeding shorebirds

The Arctic is experiencing rapidly warming conditions, increasing predator abundance, and diminishing population cycles of keystone species such as lemmings. However, it is still not known how many Arctic animals will respond to a changing climate with altered trophic interactions. We studied clutch size, incubation duration and nest survival of 17 taxa of Arctic‐breeding shorebirds at 16 field sites over 7 years. We predicted that physiological benefits of higher temperatures and earlier snowmelt would increase reproductive effort and nest survival, and we expected increasing predator abundance and decreasing abundance of alternative prey (arvicoline rodents) to have a negative effect on reproduction. Although we observed wide ranges of conditions during our study, we found no effects of covariates on reproductive traits in 12 of 17 taxa. In the remaining taxa, most relationships agreed with our predictions. Earlier snowmelt increased the probability of laying a full clutch from 0.61 to 0.91 for Western Sandpipers, and shortened incubation by 1.42 days for arcticola Dunlin and 0.77 days for Red Phalaropes. Higher temperatures increased the probability of a full clutch from 0.60 to 0.93 for Western Sandpipers and from 0.76 to 0.97 for Red‐necked Phalaropes, and increased daily nest survival rates from 0.9634 to 0.9890 for Semipalmated Sandpipers and 0.9546 to 0.9880 for Western Sandpipers. Higher abundance of predators (foxes) reduced daily nest survival rates only in Western Sandpipers (0.9821–0.9031). In contrast to our predictions, the probability of a full clutch was lowest (0.83) for Semipalmated Sandpipers at moderate abundance of alternative prey, rather than low abundance (0.90). Our findings suggest that in the short‐term, climate warming may have neutral or positive effects on the nesting cycle of most Arctic‐breeding shorebirds.

Ibis↗

USGS1998

The US federal framework for research on endocrine disrupters and an analysis of research programs supported during fiscal year 1996

The potential health and ecological effects of endocrine disrupting chemicals has become a high visibility environmental issue. The 1990s have witnessed a growing concern, both on the part of the scientific community and the public, that environmental chemicals may be causing widespread effects in humans and in a variety of fish and wildlife species. This growing concern led the Committee on the Environment and Natural Resources (CENR) of the National Science and Technology Council to identify the endocrine disruptor issue as a major research initiative in early 1995 and subsequently establish an ad hoc Working Group on Endocrine Disruptors. The objectives of the working group are to 1) develop a planning framework for federal research related to human and ecological health effects of endocrine disrupting chemicals; 2) conduct an inventory of ongoing federal research programs; and 3) identify research gaps and develop a coordinated interagency plan to address priority research needs. This communication summarizes the activities of the federal government in defining a common framework for planning an endocrine disruptor research program and in assessing the status of the current effort. After developing the research framework and compiling an inventory of active research projects supported by the federal government in fiscal year 1996, the CENR working group evaluated the current federal effort by comparing the ongoing activities with the research needs identified in the framework. The analysis showed that the federal government supports considerable research on human health effects, ecological effects, and exposure assessment, with a predominance of activity occurring under human health effects. The analysis also indicates that studies on reproductive development and carcinogenesis are more prevalent than studies on neurotoxicity and immunotoxicity, that mammals (mostly laboratory animals) are the main species under study, and that chlorinated dibenzodioxins and polychlorinated biphenyls are the most commonly studied chemical classes. Comparison of the inventory with the research needs should allow identification of underrepresented research areas in need of attention.

Environmental Health Perspectives↗

USGS2020

Prioritizing uncertainties to improve management of a reintroduction program

The success of wildlife reintroduction efforts rests on the demographic performance of released animals. Whooping Cranes in the eastern migratory population—reintroduced beginning in 2001—demonstrate adequate survival but poor reproduction. Managers and scientists have used an iterative process of learning and management to respond to this management challenge, but by 2015, uncertainty about the causes of reproductive failure remained substantial. An expert judgment–driven process was used to develop and refine competing hypotheses for reproductive failure and to evaluate the impact of various management actions on components of reproduction (nesting success and fledging success) in light of the various hypotheses. I used that information to calculate value of information, the expected improvement in management performance associated with an increase in knowledge, which suggests research and monitoring priorities for the future.

Book chapter↗

USGS2011

An automated device for provoking and capturing wildlife calls

Some animals exhibit call-and-response behaviors that can be exploited to facilitate detection. Traditionally, acoustic surveys that use call-and-respond techniques have required an observer's presence to perform the broadcast, record the response, or both events. This can be labor-intensive and may influence animal behavior and, thus, survey results. We developed an automated acoustic survey device using commercially available hardware (e.g., laptop computer, speaker, microphone) and an author-created (JS) software program ("HOOT") that can be used to survey for any animal that calls. We tested this device to determine 1) deployment longevity, 2) effective sampling area, and 3) ability to detect known packs of gray wolves (Canis lupus) in Idaho, USA. Our device was able to broadcast and record twice daily for 6–7 days using the internal computer battery and surveyed an area of 3.3–17.5 km 2 in relatively open habitat depending on the hardware components used. We surveyed for wolves at 2 active rendezvous sites used by closely monitored, radiocollared wolf packs and obtained 4 responses across both packs over 3 days of sampling. We confirmed reproduction in these 2 packs by detecting pup howls aurally from the resulting device recordings. Our device can broadcast and record animal calls and the computer software is freely downloadable. This automated survey device can be used to collect reliable data while reducing the labor costs traditionally associated with acoustic surveys.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

USGS2000

Mate fidelity and breeding site tenacity in a monogamous sandpiper, the black turnstone

We examined the relationship between mate fidelity and breeding site tenacity during a 5-year study of the black turnstone, Arenaria melanocephala, a socially monogamous sandpiper breeding in subarctic Alaska. We tested the predictions of several hypotheses regarding the incidence of divorce and the benefits of fidelity to mate and breeding site. Interannual return rates to the breeding grounds (88% for males, 79% for females) were among the highest yet recorded for any scolopacid sandpiper, and 88% of returning birds nested on their previous year's territory. The annual divorce rate was only 11%, and mate fidelity was significantly linked to fidelity to territory but independent of sex and year. Males arrived in spring significantly earlier than their mates and interannual fidelity was influenced by the relative timing of arrival of pair members. Reunited pairs had significantly higher fledging success than new pairs formed after death or divorce. The incidence of divorce was unrelated to reproductive success the previous year, although birds nested significantly further away after failure than after a successful nesting attempt. Sightings of marked individuals suggested that members of pairs do not winter together, and breeding site tenacity provides a mechanism through which pair members can reunite. We reject the 'incompatibility' hypothesis for divorce in turnstones, and our data contradict predictions of the 'better option' hypothesis. Alternatively, we propose the 'bet-hedging' hypothesis to explain the occurrence of divorce, which transpires when an individual pairs with a new mate to avoid the cost of waiting for a previous mate to return. Such costs can include remaining unmated, if the former mate has died, or experiencing lower reproductive success because of delayed breeding.

Animal Behaviour↗

USGS2019

Brood size affects future reproduction in a long-lived bird with precocial young

Estimation of trade-offs between current reproduction and future survival and fecundity of long-lived vertebrates is essential to understanding factors that shape optimal reproductive investment. Black brant geese (Branta bernicla nigricans) fledge more goslings, on average, when their broods are experimentally enlarged to be greater than the most common clutch size of four eggs. Thus, we hypothesized that the lesser frequency of brant clutches exceeding four eggs results, at least partially, from a future reduction in survival, breeding probability, or clutch size for females tending larger broods. We used an eight-year mark-recapture dataset (Barker robust design) with five years of clutch and brood manipulations to estimate long-term consequences of reproductive decisions in brant. We did not find evidence of a trade-off between reproductive effort and true survival or future initiation date and clutch size. Rather, future breeding probability was maximized (0.92 ± 0.03 [se]) for manipulated females tending broods of four goslings and lower for females tending smaller (one gosling; 0.63 ± 0.09 [se]) or larger broods (seven goslings; 0.52 ± 0.15 [se]). Our results suggest that demographic trade-offs for female brant tending large broods may reduce the fitness value of clutches larger than four and, therefore, contribute to the paucity of larger clutches. The lack of a trade-off between reproductive effort and survival provides evidence that survival, to which fitness is most sensitive in long-lived animals, is buffered against temporal variation in brant.

American Naturalist↗