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Results for “Animal Migrations”

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At least 127 records · Page 7Linked to original sources
USGS2016

A generalizable energetics-based model of avian migration to facilitate continental-scale waterbird conservation

Conserving migratory birds is made especially difficult because of movement among spatially disparate locations across the annual cycle. In light of challenges presented by the scale and ecology of migratory birds, successful conservation requires integrating objectives, management, and monitoring across scales, from local management units to ecoregional and flyway administrative boundaries. We present an integrated approach using a spatially explicit energetic-based mechanistic bird migration model useful to conservation decision-making across disparate scales and locations. This model moves a mallard-like bird (Anas platyrhynchos), through spring and fall migration as a function of caloric gains and losses across a continental scale energy landscape. We predicted with this model that fall migration, where birds moved from breeding to wintering habitat, took a mean of 27.5 days of flight with a mean seasonal survivorship of 90.5% (95% CI = 89.2%, 91.9%) whereas spring migration took a mean of 23.5 days of flight with mean seasonal survivorship of 93.6% (95% CI = 92.5%, 94.7%). Sensitivity analyses suggested that survival during migration was sensitive to flight speed, flight cost, the amount of energy the animal could carry and the spatial pattern of energy availability, but generally insensitive to total energy availability per se. Nevertheless, continental patterns in the bird-use days occurred principally in relation to wetland cover and agricultural habitat in the fall. Bird-use days were highest in both spring and fall in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley and along the coast and near-shore environments of South Carolina. Spatial sensitivity analyses suggested that locations nearer to migratory endpoints were less important to survivorship; for instance, removing energy from a 1,036 km2 stopover site at a time from the Atlantic Flyway suggested coastal areas between New Jersey and North Carolina, including Chesapeake Bay and the North Carolina piedmont, are essential locations for efficient migration and increasing survivorship during spring migration but not locations in Ontario and Massachusetts. This sort of spatially explicit information may allow decision-makers to prioritize their conservation actions toward locations most influential to migratory success. Thus, this mechanistic model of avian migration provides a decision-analytic medium integrating the potential consequences of local actions to flyway-scale phenomena.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2009

Analyzing bat migration

T HE MIGRATORY MOVEIvl.ENTS OF BATS have proven ex­ tremely difficult to determine. Despite extensive efforts during the past century to track the movements of bats across landscapes, efficient methods of following small- to medium-size volant animals <240 gl for extended periods (>8 weeks) over long distances (>100 km) have not been developed. Important questions about bat migration remain unanswered: Which bats migrate? Where do they go? How far do they move? How high and fast do they fly? What are their habitat needs during migration? How do bats orient and navigate during migration? Addressing these apparently simple questions will be a considerable challenge to anyone interested in advancing the study of bat migration. In this chapter, we present direct and indirect methods used to study bat migration as well as techniques that have worked for studying bird migration that could feasibly be adapted to the study of bats.

Book chapter↗
USGS2017

Passive restoration following ungulate removal in a highly disturbed tropical wet forest devoid of native seed dispersers

Overabundant ungulate populations can alter forests. Concurrently, global declines of seed dispersers may threaten native forest structure and function. On an island largely devoid of native vertebrate seed dispersers, we monitored forest succession for 7 years following ungulate exclusion from a 5-ha area and adjacent plots with ungulates still present. We observed succession from open scrub to forest and understory cover by non-native plants declined. Two trees, native Hibiscus tiliaceus and non-native Leucaena leucocephala , accounted for most forest regeneration, with the latter dominant. Neither species is dependent on animal dispersers nor was there strong evidence that plants dependent on dispersers migrated into the 5-ha study area. Passive restoration following ungulate removal may facilitate restoration, but did not show promise for fully restoring native forest on Guam. Restoration of native forest plants in bird depopulated areas will likely require active outplanting of native seedlings, control of factors resulting in bird loss, and reintroduction of seed dispersers.

Guam↗
USGS2011

Aquatic ecology of the Elwha River estuary prior to dam removal: Chapter 7 in Coastal habitats of the Elwha River, Washington--biological and physical patterns and processes prior to dam removal

The removal of two long-standing dams on the Elwha River in Washington State will initiate a suite of biological and physical changes to the estuary at the river mouth. Estuaries represent a transition between freshwater and saltwater, have unique assemblages of plants and animals, and are a critical habitat for some salmon species as they migrate to the ocean. This chapter summarizes a number of studies in the Elwha River estuary, and focuses on physical and biological aspects of the ecosystem that are expected to change following dam removal. Included are data sets that summarize (1) water chemistry samples collected over a 16 month period; (2) beach seining activities targeted toward describing the fish assemblage of the estuary and migratory patterns of juvenile salmon; (3) descriptions of the aquatic and terrestrial invertebrate communities in the estuary, which represent an important food source for juvenile fish and are important water quality indicators; and (4) the diet and growth patterns of juvenile Chinook salmon in the lower Elwha River and estuary. These data represent baseline conditions of the ecosystem after nearly a century of changes due to the dams and will be useful in monitoring the changes to the river and estuary following dam removal.

Washington↗
USGS2023

Waterfowl recently infected with low pathogenic avian influenza exhibit reduced local movement and delayed migration

Understanding relationships between infection and wildlife movement patterns is important for predicting pathogen spread, especially for multispecies pathogens and those that can spread to humans and domestic animals, such as avian influenza viruses (AIVs). Although infection with low pathogenic AIVs is generally considered asymptomatic in wild birds, prior work has shown that influenza-infected birds occasionally delay migration and/or reduce local movements relative to their uninfected counterparts. However, most observational research to date has focused on a few species in northern Europe; given that influenza viruses are widespread globally and outbreaks of highly pathogenic strains are increasingly common, it is important to explore influenza–movement relationships across more species and regions. Here, we used telemetry data to investigate relationships between influenza infection and movement behavior in 165 individuals from four species of North American waterfowl that overwinter in California, USA. We studied both large-scale migratory and local overwintering movements and found that relationships between influenza infection and movement patterns varied among species. Northern pintails ( Anas acuta ) with antibodies to avian influenza, indicating prior infection, made migratory stopovers that averaged 12 days longer than those with no influenza antibodies. In contrast, greater white-fronted geese ( Anser albifrons ) with antibodies to avian influenza made migratory stopovers that averaged 15 days shorter than those with no antibodies. Canvasbacks ( Aythya valisineria ) that were actively infected with influenza upon capture in the winter delayed spring migration by an average of 28 days relative to birds that were uninfected at the time of capture. At the local scale, northern pintails and canvasbacks that were actively infected with influenza used areas that were 7.6 and 4.9 times smaller than those of uninfected ducks, respectively, during the period of presumed active influenza infection. We found no evidence for an influence of active influenza infection on local movements of mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ). These results suggest that avian influenza can influence waterfowl movements and illustrate that the relationships between avian influenza infection and wild bird movements are context- and species-dependent. More generally, understanding and predicting the spread of multihost pathogens requires studying multiple taxa across space and time.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2012

A history of telemetry in fishery research

Biotelemetry has been defined as “the instrumental technique for gaining and transmitting information from a living organism and its environment to a remote observer” (Slater 1965). Biotelemetry typically utilizes wireless transmission of either an audible signal or electronic data to determine location of a tagged animal. Fisheries researchers use location information to gain a variety of insights into migration, habitat use, behavior, productivity, or survival of fish. Biotelemetry can be divided into two basic categories, acoustic or radio, based on mode of transmission, mechanical or electromagnetic energy, and operating frequency. Most acoustic systems in use today transmit at low frequency, between 30 and 300 kHz, while most radio systems transmit at very high frequency, between 30 and 300 MHz (Sisak and Lotimer 1998). Acoustic telemetry is based on the principals of sonar (sound navigation and ranging), which was developed to detect submarines during World War I. The properties of acoustic systems favor their use in deep waters with high conductivity and low turbulence (Winter 1996). Radio telemetry is based on the principals of wireless radio communication, which were first demonstrated by Nikola Tesla in 1893. Radio systems are best suited in shallow waters with relatively low conductivity but have the added benefit of improved signal detection in turbulent conditions and with aerial antennas. Advances in both technologies have resulted in highly efficient transmitter and receiving systems. Advancements in products used for animal telemetry over the past 50 years have generally followed those in the electronics field (Figure 1). Bell Laboratories1 ushered in the age of digital electronics with the invention of the transistor in 1947 (Mann 2000). Today transistors are common in everyday items such as radios, televisions, hearing aids, computers, cell phones and even MP3 players. Consumer demand for inexpensive small electronic devices with increased functionality has continually driven advancements in the field of electronics. These advancements have subsequently led to improvements in biotelemetry transmitters and receivers such as miniaturization of components, increased battery performance, and more powerful micro-processing.

Book chapter↗
USGS2016

Temporal segmentation of animal trajectories informed by habitat use

Most animals live in seasonal environments and experience very different conditions throughout the year. Behavioral strategies like migration, hibernation, and a life cycle adapted to the local seasonality help to cope with fluctuations in environmental conditions. Thus, how an individual utilizes the environment depends both on the current availability of habitat and the behavioral prerequisites of the individual at that time. While the increasing availability and richness of animal movement data has facilitated the development of algorithms that classify behavior by movement geometry, changes in the environmental correlates of animal movement have so far not been exploited for a behavioral annotation. Here, we suggest a method that uses these changes in individual–environment associations to divide animal location data into segments of higher ecological coherence, which we term niche segmentation. We use time series of random forest models to evaluate the transferability of habitat use over time to cluster observational data accordingly. We show that our method is able to identify relevant changes in habitat use corresponding to both changes in the availability of habitat and how it was used using simulated data, and apply our method to a tracking data set of common teal (Anas crecca). The niche segmentation proved to be robust, and segmented habitat suitability outperformed models neglecting the temporal dynamics of habitat use. Overall, we show that it is possible to classify animal trajectories based on changes of habitat use similar to geometric segmentation algorithms. We conclude that such an environmentally informed classification of animal trajectories can provide new insights into an individuals' behavior and enables us to make sensible predictions of how suitable areas might be connected by movement in space and time.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2009

Landbird migration in the American West: Recent progress and future research directions

Our knowledge of avian behaviors during the nonbreeding period still lags behind that of the breeding season, but the last decade has witnessed a proliferation in research that has yielded significant progress in understanding migration patterns of North American birds. And, although historically the great majority of migration research has been conducted in the eastern half of the continent, there has been much recent progress on aspects of avian migration in the West. In particular, expanded use of techniques such as radar, plasma metabolites, mist-netting, count surveys, stable isotopes, genetic data, and animal tracking, coupled with an increase in multi-investigator collaborations, have all contributed to this growth of knowledge. There is increasing recognition that migration is likely the most limiting time of year for migratory birds, increasing the importance of continuing to decipher patterns of stopover ecology, identifying critical stopover habitats, and documenting migration routes in the diverse and changing landscapes of the American West. Here, we review and briefly synthesize the latest findings and advances in avian migration and consider research needs to guide future research on migration in the West. ?? 2009 by The Cooper Ornithological Society. All rights reserved.

The Condor↗
USGS2018

Movements and dive patterns of pygmy killer whales (Feresa attenuata) released in the Gulf of Mexico following rehabilitation

The habits and habitats of pygmy killer whales ( Feresa attenuata ) in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) are poorly known outside of strandings and line-transect surveys. Two adult male pygmy killer whales were found live-stranded in the state of Mississippi (USA) on 1 September 2015 and were subsequently rehabilitated and returned to the offshore waters of the GoM on 11 July 2016. To monitor the animals post-release, both were tagged with satellite-linked location and dive behavior tags. Tags were programed to record and transmit dive duration and depth (when dives were ≥ 30 m deep for ≥ 30 s), duration of time spent above 30 m depth, and estimate locations using the Argos system. The tags transmitted for 15 and 88 days, respectively, providing a total of 1,027 filtered locations and 3,150 dive duration and maximum depth records. The animals began diving after two and four days, respectively, post-release. More than 96% of dives occurred at night. The longest recorded dive was more than 9 min in duration, and the deepest was to 368 m. More than 98% of the locations were over the GoM shelf break, spanning water 200 to 1,200 m deep. Diving patterns indicate that this species is most active at night in the GoM, suggesting its prey species are likely diel migrators that are below reachable depths during daylight hours. Near simultaneous location data from both animals confirmed that they stayed in close proximity but did not dive synchronously. Success of the rehabilitation and release was inconclusive for pygmy killer whale ID 30IMMS, whereas 31IMMS met the established criteria for success with ≥ 6 weeks of documented post-release survival. Follow-up monitoring through satellite-linked telemetry provided not only important data for evaluating the success of the rehabilitation but also for documenting the activity and habitat use of these seldom-observed cetaceans.

Aquatic Mammals↗
USGS2003

Plasma insulin-like growth factor-I concentrations in yearling chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) migrating from the Snake River Basin, USA

During the parr-to-smolt transformation (smoltification) of juvenile salmonids, preadaptive changes in osmoregulatory and ionoregulatory ability are regulated in part by the growth hormone (GH)/insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) axis. If food intake is sufficient, plasma IGF-I increases during smoltification. On the other hand, plasma IGF-I typically decreases in fasting fish and other vertebrate animals. Because food availability is limited for juvenile salmonids undertaking an extended 6- to 12-week spring migration to and through the Snake-Columbia River hydropower system (northwestern USA), IGF-I concentrations might be expected to decrease, potentially compromising seawater tolerance. To address this possibility, yearling chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha reared in three Snake River Basin hatcheries were sampled before release and at two downstream dams. Dry masses of migrating fish either did not increase during the migration (in 2000, an average-flow year), or decreased significantly (in 2001, a low-flow year). In both years, plasma IGF-I levels were significantly higher (1.6-fold in 2000, 3.7-fold in 2001) for fish sampled at the last dam on the lower Columbia River than for fish sampled prior to release. Plasma IGF-I concentrations in migrating fish may, nonetheless, have been nutritionally down-regulated to some degree, because plasma IGF-I concentrations in juvenile chinook salmon captured at a Snake River dam and transported to the laboratory increased in fed groups, but decreased in unfed groups. The ability of migrating smolts to maintain relatively elevated IGF-I levels despite restricted food intake and loss of body mass is likely related to smoltification-associated changes in hormonal balance. ?? 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Fish Physiology and Biochemistry↗
USGS2025

Do mule deer surf peaks in forage quality while on summer range?

Many animals track ephemeral peaks in food abundance and quality that propagate across landscapes. Migrating ungulates, in particular, track waves of newly emerging plants from low-elevation winter ranges to high-elevation summer ranges—known as “green-wave surfing.” Because plants lose crude protein and gain insoluble fiber with maturation, ruminants are expected to exploit peaks in forage quality among individual plants (i.e., Forage Maturation Hypothesis). Although ample evidence supports the long-standing hypothesis that migratory ungulates surf peaks in forage quality during migration, the hypothesis that ungulates track peaks in forage quality at a small scale (i.e., microsurf while on summer range) remains less known. We studied a partially migratory population of mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) in Wyoming, USA, to understand whether temperate ungulates optimize the use of high-quality forage as plants grow and senesce on disparate summer ranges. Specifically, we evaluated how crude protein, digestible energy, and relative abundance changed throughout the growing season and whether deer altered their diet to reflect species-specific changes in plant phenology. In support of the Forage Maturation Hypothesis, forage quality declined as large-scale patterns of phenology progressed away from a remotely sensed metric of peak green-up for most plant species on the summer ranges of deer that migrated short (<50 km), medium (50–130 km), and long distances (>130 km). Declining rates in forage quality among plant species were heterogeneous, providing deer with the phenological diversity required to microsurf. Deer changed their diet throughout the growing season and prioritized the consumption of some plants, including Rosa woodsii and Purshia tridentata , as the rank of forage quality increased ( p < 0.01). In light of the complexities common to studies on foraging behavior, our findings suggest that deer may have some potential to microsurf on summer range when heterogeneity in resource phenology is prevalent. Moreover, our findings validate the accuracy of remote sensing in quantifying peak forage quality for plants within sagebrush shrublands and montane habitats.

Wyoming↗
USGS2003

Timing of autumn bird migration under climate change: advances in long–distance migrants, delays in short–distance migrants

As a response to increasing spring temperature in temperate regions in recent years, populations of many plant and animal species, including migratory birds, have advanced the seasonal start of their reproduction or growth. However, the effects of climate changes on subsequent events of the annual cycle remain poorly understood. We investigated long–term changes in the timing of autumn migration in birds, a key event in the annual cycle limiting the reproductive period. Using data spanning a 42–year period, we analysed long–term changes in the passage of 65 species of migratory birds through Western Europe. The autumn passage of migrants wintering south of the Sahara has advanced in recent years, presumably as a result of selection pressure to cross the Sahel before its seasonal dry period. In contrast, migrants wintering north of the Sahara have delayed autumn passage. In addition, species with a variable rather than a fixed number of broods per year have delayed passage, possibly because they are free to attempt more broods. Recent climate changes seem to have a simple unidirectional effect on the seasonal onset of reproduction, but complex and opposing effects on the timing of subsequent events in the annual cycle, depending on the ecology and life history of a species. This complicates predictions of overall effects of global warming on avian communities.

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sci↗
USGS2022

Migration Mapper: Identifying movement corridors and seasonal ranges for large mammal conservation

Modern tracking technology has facilitated a novel understanding of terrestrial mammal movement while revealing that movements are being truncated and lost. The first step towards conserving mobile animals is identifying movement corridors and key seasonal ranges. Yet, the identification and subsequent mapping of these important areas has remained a challenge due to the analytical skills necessary to conduct such analyses. Migration Mapper (MM) is a user-friendly software that provides tools to analyse global positioning system (GPS) collar data to create season-specific, population-level polygons representing areas where most of a population moves (i.e. movement corridors) and areas where most of a population spends time (e.g. high-use areas, seasonal ranges). MM consists of six standalone modules including data cleaning and review, seasonal movement delineation, movement model application, calculation of population-level outputs and visualization of results. Analysis of GPS data using MM can provide the spatial polygons necessary to facilitate conservation and policy planning. New initiatives at the local and global levels are already beginning to use MM to facilitate conservation of large, terrestrial mammals.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2011

Beach characteristics mitigate effects of onshore wind on horseshoe crab spawning: Implications for matching with shorebird migration in Delaware Bay

Disruption of food availability by unfavorable physical processes at energetically demanding times can limit recruitment of migratory species as predicted by the match–mismatch hypothesis. Identification and protection of disruption‐resistant habitat could contribute to system resilience. For example, horseshoe crab Limulus polyphemus spawning and shorebird stopover must match temporally in Delaware Bay for eggs to be available to shorebirds. Onshore winds that generate waves can create a mismatch by delaying horseshoe crab spawning. We examined effects of beach characteristics and onshore winds on spawning activity at five beaches when water temperatures were otherwise consistent with early spawning activity. Onshore winds resulted in reduced spawning activity during the shorebird stopover, when spawning typically peaks in late May. During the period with high onshore wind, egg density was highest on the foreshore exposed to the lowest wave heights. Onshore wind was low in early June, and spawning and egg densities were high at all sites, but shorebirds had departed. Beaches that can serve as a refuge from wind and waves can be identified by physical characteristics and orientation to prevailing winds and should receive special conservation status, especially in light of predicted increases in climate change‐induced storm frequency. These results point to a potential conservation strategy that includes coastal management for adapting to climate change‐induced mismatch of migrations.

Delaware↗
USGS2025

Elk personality and anthropogenic food subsidy: Managing conflict and migration loss

The continued decline of long-distance ungulate migrations threatens to decouple important ecological processes that increase biodiversity and wildlife abundance. Past research has focused on preserving migration paths where habitat fragmentation and loss disrupt movement corridors. However, shifting residency-migration trade-offs are the stronger driver of migration loss in some populations. Suburban residential developments may provide ungulates with anthropogenic food sources and refuge from predators, which can increase population growth among short-distance migrants relative to long-distance migrants. This trend can increase wildlife vehicle collisions and other human–wildlife conflicts while simultaneously reducing hunting opportunities. Yet, individual animals vary in their tolerance of human disturbance. We investigated how interindividual variation relative to conflict and human habituation influences elk migration and space use on shared winter range. We used a clustering algorithm applied to GPS collar data to identify elk use of anthropogenic food resources in suburban habitat. Cluster locations identified all known anthropogenic subsidy locations during the study period. Elk that used suburban anthropogenic food sources also migrated 60% shorter distances between summer and winter ranges than elk with no known use of these food subsidies. Elk use of protected wintering grounds was spatially structured such that conflict-prone, short-distance migrants disproportionately used areas with more human activity. Clustering algorithms applied to GPS collar data may allow managers to identify foci of concentrated use that generates human–wildlife conflict, and where prion deposition and environmental contamination facilitate the spread of chronic wasting disease, particularly in suburban areas with anthropogenic food subsidies. The apparent spatial structuring of shared winter range according to the conflict potential and migration strategy of individual elk may also permit managers to assess relative recruitment among cryptic population segments using different migration strategies and facilitate targeted, adaptive management actions. These associations between conflict, human habituation, and migration shed light on the urbanization of wildlife species, inform efforts to manage human–wildlife conflict and disease spread, and emphasize that a multipronged approach beyond maintaining habitat corridors may be necessary to conserve long-distance migrations for species that can become human-habituated.

Wyoming↗
USGS2023

High winds and melting sea ice trigger landward movement in a polar bear population of concern

Some animal species are responding to climate change by altering the timing of events like mating and migration. Such behavioral plasticity can be adaptive, but it is not always. Polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) from the southern Beaufort Sea subpopulation have mostly remained on ice year-round, but as the climate warms and summer sea ice declines, a growing proportion of the subpopulation is summering ashore. The triggers of this novel behavior are not well understood. Our study uses a parametric time-to-event model to test whether biological and/or time-varying environmental variables thought to influence polar bear movement and habitat selection also drive decisions to swim ashore. We quantified the time polar bears spent occupying offshore sea ice of varying ice concentrations. We evaluated variations in the ordinal date bears moved to land with respect to local environmental conditions such as sea ice concentration and wind across 10 years (2005–2015). Results from our study suggest that storm events (i.e., sustained high wind speeds) may force polar bears from severely degraded ice habitat and catalyze seasonal movements to land. Unlike polar bears long adapted to complete summer ice melt, southern Beaufort Sea bears that summer ashore appear more tolerant of poor-quality sea ice habitat and are less willing to abandon it. Our findings provide a window into emergent, climatically mediated behavior in an Arctic marine mammal vulnerable to rapid habitat decline.

Alaska↗
USGS2022

A flexible movement model for partially migrating species

We propose a flexible model for a partially migrating species, which we demonstrate using yearly paths for golden eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ). Our model relies on a smoothly time-varying potential surface defined by a number of attractors. We compare our proposed approach using varying coefficients to a latent-state model, which we define differently for migrating, dispersing, and local individuals. While latent-state models are more common in the existing animal movement literature, varying coefficient models have various benefits including the ability to fit a wide range of movement strategies without the need for major model adjustments. We compare simulations from the models for three individuals to illustrate the ability of our model to better describe movement behavior for specific movement strategies. We also demonstrate the flexibility of our model by fitting several individuals whose movement behavior is less stereotypical.

Spatial Statistics↗
USGS2005

Forecasting the evolution of seismicity in southern California: Animations built on earthquake stress transfer

We develop a forecast model to reproduce the distibution of main shocks, aftershocks and surrounding seismicity observed during 1986-200 in a 300 ?? 310 km area centered on the 1992 M = 7.3 Landers earthquake. To parse the catalog into frames with equal numbers of aftershocks, we animate seismicity in log time increments that lengthen after each main shock; this reveals aftershock zone migration, expansion, and densification. We implement a rate/state algorithm that incorporates the static stress transferred by each M ??? 6 shock and then evolves. Coulomb stress changes amplify the background seismicity, so small stress changes produce large changes in seismicity rate in areas of high background seismicity. Similarly, seismicity rate declines in the stress shadows are evident only in areas with previously high seismicity rates. Thus a key constituent of the model is the background seismicity rate, which we smooth from 1981 to 1986 seismicity. The mean correlation coefficient between observed and predicted M ??? 1.4 shocks (the minimum magnitude of completeness) is 0.52 for 1986-2003 and 0.63 for 1992-2003; a control standard aftershock model yields 0.54 and 0.52 for the same periods. Four M ??? 6.0 shocks struck during the test period; three are located at sites where the expected seismicity rate falls above the 92 percentile, and one is located above the 75 percentile. The model thus reproduces much, but certainly not all, of the observed spatial and temporal seismicity, from which we infer that the decaying effect of stress transferred by successive main shocks influences seismicity for decades. Finally, we offer a M ??? 5 earthquake forecast for 2005-2015, assigning probabilities to 324 10 ?? 10 km cells.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗