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At least 127 records · Page 7Linked to original sources
USGS1981

Estimates of avian population trends from the North American Breeding Bird Survey

One of the major purposes of bird population studies is to document changes in population size over a period of years. The traditional method used in Europe and North America to detect population change is to calculate annual ratios. However, this method can produce spurious results when ratios are accumulated over many years. Consequently, new methods of computing trends are needed. Several new methods of estimating population trends are developed and illustrated with data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS). Each method is compared in terms of its assumptions, biases, and limitations. On the basis of these comparisons we recommend one method that we feel most accurately detects true population trends. Both the biological and statistical justifications for the model selection are presented. Trends estimated with this model are then presented for two species.

Book chapter↗
USGS1998

Estimating population change from count data: Application to the North American Breeding Bird Survey

For birds and many other animal taxa, surveys that collect count data form a primary source of information on population change. Because counts are only indices to population size, care must be taken in using them in analyses of population change. Temporal or geographic differences in the proportion of animals counted can be misinterpreted as differences in population size. Therefore, temporally or geographically varying factors that influence the proportion of animals counted must be incorporated as covariables in the analysis of population parameters from count data. We describe the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) for illustration. The BBS is a major, landscape-level survey of birds in North America; it is typical of many count surveys, in that the same sample units (survey routes) are sampled each year, and change is modeled on these routes over time. We identify covariables related to observer ability, the omission of which can bias estimation of population change from BBS data. Controlling for observer effects or other potential sources of confounding requires the specification of models relating counts to population size. We begin with a partial model specification relating expected counts to population sizes; we describe estimators currently in use in relation to this partial specification. Additional assumptions lead to a class of over-dispersed multinomial models, for which we describe estimators of population change and procedures for parsimonious model selection. We illustrate the use of over-dispersed multinomial models by an application to data for Carolina Wren (Thryothorus ludovicianus).

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2016

Bayesian cross-validation for model evaluation and selection, with application to the North American Breeding Bird Survey

The analysis of ecological data has changed in two important ways over the last 15 years. The development and easy availability of Bayesian computational methods has allowed and encouraged the fitting of complex hierarchical models. At the same time, there has been increasing emphasis on acknowledging and accounting for model uncertainty. Unfortunately, the ability to fit complex models has outstripped the development of tools for model selection and model evaluation: familiar model selection tools such as Akaike's information criterion and the deviance information criterion are widely known to be inadequate for hierarchical models. In addition, little attention has been paid to the evaluation of model adequacy in context of hierarchical modeling, i.e., to the evaluation of fit for a single model. In this paper, we describe Bayesian cross-validation, which provides tools for model selection and evaluation. We describe the Bayesian predictive information criterion and a Bayesian approximation to the BPIC known as the Watanabe-Akaike information criterion. We illustrate the use of these tools for model selection, and the use of Bayesian cross-validation as a tool for model evaluation, using three large data sets from the North American Breeding Bird Survey.

Ecology↗
USGS2016

Population trends for North American winter birds based on hierarchical models

Managing widespread and persistent threats to birds requires knowledge of population dynamics at large spatial and temporal scales. For over 100 yrs, the Audubon Christmas Bird Count (CBC) has enlisted volunteers in bird monitoring efforts that span the Americas, especially southern Canada and the United States. We employed a Bayesian hierarchical model to control for variation in survey effort among CBC circles and, using CBC data from 1966 to 2013, generated early-winter population trend estimates for 551 species of birds. Selecting a subset of species that do not frequent bird feeders and have ≥25% range overlap with the distribution of CBC circles (228 species) we further estimated aggregate (i.e., across species) trends for the entire study region and at the level of states/provinces, Bird Conservation Regions, and Landscape Conservation Cooperatives. Moreover, we examined the relationship between ten biological traits—range size, population size, migratory strategy, habitat affiliation, body size, diet, number of eggs per clutch, age at sexual maturity, lifespan, and tolerance of urban/suburban settings—and CBC trend estimates. Our results indicate that 68% of the 551 species had increasing trends within the study area over the interval 1966–2013. When trends were examined across the subset of 228 species, the median population trend for the group was 0.9% per year at the continental level. At the regional level, aggregate trends were positive in all but a few areas. Negative population trends were evident in lower latitudes, whereas the largest increases were at higher latitudes, a pattern consistent with range shifts due to climate change. Nine of 10 biological traits were significantly associated with median population trend; however, none of the traits explained >34% of the deviance in the data, reflecting the indirect relationships between population trend estimates and species traits. Trend estimates based on the CBC are broadly congruent with estimates based on the North American Breeding Bird Survey, another large-scale monitoring program. Both of these efforts, conducted by citizen scientists, will be required going forward to ensure robust inference about population dynamics in the face of climate and land cover changes.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2006

Hematozoa of forest birds in American Samoa - Evidence for a diverse, indigenous parasite fauna from the South Pacific

Introduced avian diseases pose a significant threat to forest birds on isolated island archipelagos, especially where most passerines are endemic and many groups of blood-sucking arthropods are either absent or only recently introduced. We conducted a blood parasite survey of forest birds from the main islands of American Samoa to obtain baseline information about the identity, distribution and prevalence of hematozoan parasites in this island group. We examined Giemsa-stained blood smears from 857 individual birds representing 20 species on Tutuila, Ofu, Olosega, and Ta'u islands. Four hematozoan parasites were identified - Plasmodium circumflexum (1%, 12/857), Trypanosoma avium (4%, 32/857), microfilaria (9%, 76/857), and an Atoxoplasma sp. (<1%, 2/857). Infections were found in seven indigenous bird species from the archipelago. Overall prevalence of infection varied significantly among bird species, individual islands, and between Tutuila and the more isolated Manu'a group of islands. Infections with Plasmodium, Trypanosoma, and filarial worms occurred throughout the archipelago, including islands without introduced birds. There was a statistically significant difference in the overall prevalence of infection before and after Hurricane Olaf in February 2005, suggesting that catastrophic hurricanes may influence the dynamics of parasite infections. Given the central location of American Samoa in the South Pacific, it is likely that avian malaria and other hematozoan parasites are indigenous and widespread at least as far as the central South Pacific. Their natural occurrence may provide some immunological protection to indigenous birds in the event that other closely related parasites are accidentally introduced to the region.

Pacific Conservation Biology↗
USGS1987

Trends in American kestrel counts from the North American Breeding Bird Survey

A 15-year summary of the BBS data suggests that continental numbers of American Kestrels have increased during 1966-1979. According to analyses of physiographic and state/province strata, some areas are largely responsible for the increase in the U.S. and southern Canada and that only in Illinois and Arkansas have kestrels declined. BBS data are too few in Florida to detect trends concerning F. s. paulus. Surveying on special Raptor Routes, on which volunteers looked specifically for raptors while retracing their BBS route, did not significantly increase the kestrel counts, but did improve detection rates.

Book chapter↗
USGS1995

North American migratory bird management issues

As human population and industry have grown in North America, land-use practices have greatly altered the landscape. As a result of this changed landscape, several migratory bird populations have declined in recent years. For waterbirds, there have been several milestones: the 1986 North American Waterfowl Management Plan (NAWMP) and the 1989 North American Wetlands Conservation Act. As a result, the United States and Canada have established 12 habitat and 2 species joint ventures. The primary emphasis of waterfowl management in Canada-U.S. has been land purchase and lease, wetland restoration, and coordination of harvest rates. Because of its different biological and cultural context, Mexico has established other conservation priorities. Mexico has had a long-standing concern to conserve its biodiversity and, in addition, conservation of Mexican resources goes hand in hand with human community development. Unlike Canada-U.S., wetland conservation projects in'Mexico include information gathering, environmental education, and management planning for its 32 priority wetlands. For migratory landbirds' scientists attribute declines in several migrant populations to forest fragmentation on the breeding grounds, deforestation on the wintering grounds, pesticide poisoning, or the cumulative effects of habitat changes. In 1990, the Neotropical Migratory Bird Conservation Program, commonly known as Partners in Flight-Aves de las Americas-was initiated. The next step that is being proposed is the formation of a habitat conservation plan for landbirds modeled after the NAWMP. Management of migratory birds requires a strong international approach in order to coordinate actions for the benefit of migratory birds, their habitats, and the uses they provide.

Wildlife Society Annual Conference↗
USGS2019

Modeling spatially and temporally complex range dynamics when detection is imperfect

Species distributions are determined by the interaction of multiple biotic and abiotic factors, which produces complex spatial and temporal patterns of occurrence. As habitats and climate change due to anthropogenic activities, there is a need to develop species distribution models that can quantify these complex range dynamics. In this paper, we develop a dynamic occupancy model that uses a spatial generalized additive model to estimate non-linear spatial variation in occupancy not accounted for by environmental covariates. The model is flexible and can accommodate data from a range of sampling designs that provide information about both occupancy and detection probability. Output from the model can be used to create distribution maps and to estimate indices of temporal range dynamics. We demonstrate the utility of this approach by modeling long-term range dynamics of 10 eastern North American birds using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey. We anticipate this framework will be particularly useful for modeling species’ distributions over large spatial scales and for quantifying range dynamics over long temporal scales.

Scientific Reports↗
USGS1977

Atlantic Flyway review: Region V

Banding activities in Region V in 1975 were similar to those of 1974. The stations at Woodend and St. Michaels were discontinued, but a new station 5 miles south of St. Michaels was opened at Bellevue by Henry Armistead. For the locations of the various banding stations in Region V see the map in the 1974 report (North American Bird Bander 1:75-82). As in the past several years, the great majority of the birds banded were caught at the three full-time stations: Adventure in the Potomac Valley near the fall line, Damsite on the east shore of Chesapeake Bay, and Kiptopeke at the mouth of Chesapeake Bay. At these three stations, 17,244 birds were banded during the 1975 fall season; this is 77% of the regional total of 22,315 birds.

North American Bird Bander↗
USGS2017

Combined analysis of roadside and off-road breeding bird survey data to assess population change in Alaska

Management interest in North American birds has increasingly focused on species that breed in Alaska, USA, and Canada, where habitats are changing rapidly in response to climatic and anthropogenic factors. We used a series of hierarchical models to estimate rates of population change in 2 forested Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) in Alaska based on data from the roadside North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and the Alaska Landbird Monitoring Survey, which samples off-road areas on public resource lands. We estimated long-term (1993–2015) population trends for 84 bird species from the BBS and short-term (2003–2015) trends for 31 species from both surveys. Among the 84 species with long-term estimates, 11 had positive trends and 17 had negative trends in 1 or both BCRs; negative trends were primarily found among aerial insectivores and wetland-associated species, confirming range-wide negative continental trends for many of these birds. Three species with negative trends in the contiguous United States and southern Canada had positive trends in Alaska, suggesting different population dynamics at the northern edges of their ranges. Regional population trends within Alaska differed for several species, particularly those represented by different subspecies in the 2 BCRs, which are separated by rugged, glaciated mountain ranges. Analysis of the roadside and off-road data in a joint hierarchical model with shared parameters resulted in improved precision of trend estimates and suggested a roadside-related difference in underlying population trends for several species, particularly within the Northwestern Interior Forest BCR. The combined analysis highlights the importance of considering population structure, physiographic barriers, and spatial heterogeneity in habitat change when assessing patterns of population change across a landscape as broad as Alaska. Combined analysis of roadside and off-road survey data in a hierarchical framework may be particularly useful for evaluating patterns of population change in relatively undeveloped regions with sparse roadside BBS coverage.

Condor↗
USGS2026

Incorporating location uncertainty improves inference with stop-level North American Breeding Bird Survey data

Ecological models should account for uncertainty to be most effective and useful. Yet, uncertainty from model covariates—unlike that from other sources, such as sampling error or process variability—is seldom explicitly incorporated. This can cause underestimates of uncertainty to cascade through model parameter estimates, predictions, and downstream uses. Burner et al. proposed a method for quantifying uncertainty in covariates and incorporating it into models using informative Bayesian priors. This method was applied to stop-level Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) analyses, where land cover uncertainty at each stop arises from substantial stop location uncertainty. A limited validation of model-estimated land cover, using stops with known locations, indicated the method’s potential effectiveness, but it was not rigorously evaluated. We conduct a robust simulation-based test, generating stop locations, extracting land cover, and simulating bird communities across 210 BBS routes in the upper Midwest. We compare 3 models: a “known” model with true land cover, a “naive” model assuming consistent 800-m stop spacing, and a “full” model using informative priors to estimate land cover. Species parameter estimates and predicted prevalence patterns across gradients in land cover from the full model approached those of the known model and were substantially closer to the true values used in simulations relative to those from the naive model. Naive model parameters were more biased relative to the other models, and credible intervals of predicted species prevalence rarely included the true simulated values. The full model also produced land cover covariate estimates closer to true simulation values relative to the mean informative priors. Our results show that, for the BBS, informative priors enable more accurate stop-level analyses despite location uncertainty. In contrast, naive models that ignore this uncertainty yield poor inferences. More broadly, we demonstrate empirically the utility of informative priors to account for covariate uncertainty in ecological models.

Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconson↗
USGS2023

Sensitivity of North American grassland birds to weather and climate variability

Grassland birds in North America have experienced sharp declines over the last 60 years driven by the widespread loss and degradation of grassland habitats. In recent decades, modern climate change has amplified these pressures. Climate change is occurring more rapidly in grasslands relative to some other ecosystems, and exposure to extreme and novel climate conditions may affect grassland bird ecology and demographics. To understand the potential effects of weather and climate variability on grassland birds, we systematically reviewed published empirical relationships between temperature and precipitation and demographic responses in grassland bird species of North America. We used a vote-counting approach to quantify the frequency and direction of significant effects of weather and climate variability on grassland birds. We found that grassland birds were likely to experience both positive and negative effects of higher temperatures and altered precipitation, with moderate, sustained increases in mean temperature and precipitation potentially benefiting some species, but extreme heat, drought, and heavy rainfall often reducing abundance and nest success. These patterns varied among climate regions, temporal scales of temperature and precipitation (< 1 month or ≥ 1 month), and taxa. The sensitivity of grassland bird populations to extreme weather and altered climate variability will likely be mediated by regional climates, interaction with other stressors, life history strategies of various species, and species’ tolerances for novel climate conditions.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2018

Differential changes in the onset of spring across US National Wildlife Refuges and North American migratory bird flyways

Warming temperatures associated with climate change can have indirect effects on migratory birds that rely on seasonally available food resources and habitats that vary across spatial and temporal scales. We used two heat-based indices of spring onset, the First Leaf Index (FLI) and the First Bloom Index (FBI), as proxies of habitat change for the period 1901 to 2012 at three spatial scales: the US National Wildlife Refuge System; the four major bird migratory flyways in North America; and the seasonal ranges (i.e., breeding and non-breeding grounds) of two migratory bird species, Blue-winged Warbler ( Vermivora cyanoptera ) and Whooping Crane ( Grus americana ). Our results show that relative to the historical range of variability, the onset of spring is now earlier in 76% of all wildlife refuges and extremely early (i.e., exceeding 95% of historical conditions) in 49% of refuges. In all flyways but the Pacific, the rate of spring advance is generally greater at higher latitudes than at lower latitudes. This differential rate of advance in spring onset is most pronounced in the Atlantic flyway, presumably because of a “warming hole” in the southeastern US. Both FLI and FBI have advanced markedly in the breeding ranges–but not the non-breeding ranges–of the two selected bird species, albeit with considerable intra-range variation. Differences among species in terms of migratory patterns and the location and extent of seasonal habitats, as well as shifts in habitat conditions over time, may complicate predictions of the vulnerability of migratory birds to climate change effects. This study provides insight into how differential shifts in the phenology of disparate but linked habitats could inform local- to landscape-scale management strategies for the conservation of migratory bird populations.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS1996

First-time observer effects in the North American Breeding Bird Survey

Currently the operational analysis of Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data by the National Biological Service accounts for observer differences in estimating the trend for each route, but within-observer differences are not modeled. We tested for the existence of a form of within-observer differences in skill level, namely a change in ability to count birds of a given species after an observer's first year on a given route. An increase in ability could positively bias the trend estimate. Removal of an observer's first year of observation on each route for the period 1966 to 1991 resulted in lower average unweighted trend estimates for 415 of 459 species (90%). These reductions were statistically significant for 213 species (46%). The average reduction in trend was 1.8% change per year (SD = 5.4%). In route-regression analysis, route data are weighted by a measure of precision. Removing first-year observer counts reduced the weighted trend estimate for 275 of 416 species (66%), but differences generally were small.

The Auk↗
USGS1981

The role of observer bias in the North American Breeding Bird Survey

Ornithologists sampling breeding bird populations are subject to a number of biases in bird recognition and identification. Using Breeding Bird Survey data, these biases are examined qualitatively and quantitatively, and their effects on counts are evaluated. Differences in hearing ability and degree of expertise are the major observer biases considered. Other, more subtle influences are also discussed, including unfamiliar species, resolution, imagination, similar songs and attitude and condition of observers. In most cases, welltrained observers are comparable in ability and their differences contribute little beyond sampling error. However, just as hearing loss can affect results, so can an unprepared observer. These biases are important because they can reduce the credibility of any bird population sampling effort. Care is advised in choosing observers and in interpreting and using results when observers of variable competence are involved.

Book chapter↗