Search USGSSearch

SEARCH · Search USGS

Search Search USGS

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,225 records · Page 68Linked to original sources

The contribution of a surge event to infilling in a barrier-enclosed estuary: Insights from field observations

Many estuaries worldwide face increasing sediment loading caused by catchment land use change and intensification, creating subsequent adverse effects on estuarine ecosystems. Extreme weather events can disproportionately alter sediment pathways and loading. Although storm-driven sediment exchange has been widely examined at open coasts and inlets, key transport mechanisms within constricted, sheltered estuaries remain understudied. This study presents an observational dataset capturing the impact of a 99th percentile water-level event (based on 20 years of records) on sediment transport pathways in a sheltered, barrier-enclosed estuary. This event, driven by a 3-day storm surge (>0.5 m) combined with a spring tide, was recorded during a 3-week field campaign. Sediment transport pathways and riverine contributions were analysed, and observations revealed substantial changes in suspended sediment concentrations increasing from 18 mg/l to 70 mg/l during the event. The elevated water levels and resulting pressure gradient at the constricted study site entrance caused by the storm surge increased local flood dominance. Combined with higher flow velocities and resuspension, the storm led to a sixfold increase in sediment import at the estuary entrance and a 600-fold increase in sediment flux to the upper estuary. The decoupling of peak suspended sediment concentrations from streamflow indicates that the resuspension of estuarine legacy sediment, rather than catchment inputs, dominated the system's response. These findings challenge assumptions about estuarine sediment budgets and emphasise that incorporating high water-level surge events into models can enhance the prediction of long-term estuarine evolution. Given projected increases in storm frequency under climate change, understanding these episodic but highly consequential sediment pulses can support the assessment of wetland resilience and inform estuarine management strategies.

Whangateau Estuary

Effects of prey and tissue type on δ13C and δ15N discrimination and turnover rates of rainbow trout

Stable isotope analysis is used often in ecological studies to examine dietary patterns of consumers and food web structure, yet we still know little regarding some underlying assumptions, including for well-studied species like rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss . We assessed δ 13 C and δ 15 N discrimination (∆) and turnover rates in blood, liver and white muscle of rainbow trout fed natural prey items (sculpin and chironomids). Liver had the fastest turnover rates for both δ 15 N and δ 13 C (4–6 months), followed by blood (4–7 months) and white muscle (7–9 months). Metabolism accounted for more isotopic turnover (82–93%) than growth, with the exception of δ13C in the blood of rainbow trout fed chironomids (33% of isotopic turnover was metabolic). Discrimination factors differed by tissue and diet, with ∆δ 15 N showing highest enrichment in white muscle (3.8‰; 95% CI 3.3–4.3), followed by blood (2.9‰; 95% CI 2.4–3.4) and liver (2.5‰; 95% CI 1.9–3.1) compared to the hatchery diet. The ∆δ 13 C of liver showed higher enrichment (1.9‰; 95% CI 1.7–2.1) than white muscle (1.7‰; 95% CI 1.4–2.0) and blood (1.5‰; 95% CI 1.3–1.7). It is crucial that future models incorporate species-specific tissue turnover and discrimination factors to enable drawing strong inferences and improve accuracy of model predictions.

Hydrobiologia

The magmatic-hydrothermal system of the Three Sisters volcanic cluster, Oregon, imaged from field gravity measurements

From 2019 to 2024, gravity surveys were conducted at the Three Sisters volcanic cluster (TSVC), measuring 246 gravity sites using a spring relative gravimeter. We calculated the residual Bouguer anomaly and identified three main zones with negative anomalies, ranging from −4 to −8 mGal, located southwest and west of South Sister, within an area that has been uplifting for the past two decades. After inversion, we obtain a 3D density model of the subsurface and identify low-density bodies extending from the surface down to 3 km. We estimate a total of 15 km 3 of crustal bodies with density close to 2 g/cm 3 that could store up to ~5 km 3 of water, forming an extensive hydrothermal system beneath the TSVC. We explore the possible combinations of melt compositions and temperatures that could create a bulk density close to our reference crustal density (2.5 g/cm 3 ) using MELTS thermodynamic simulations. Our results indicate that a magmatic mush with as little as 15% partial melt of bulk rhyolitic composition or as much as 52%–57% partial melt of a bulk dacitic composition could be stored in a magmatic system under TSVC without generating a detectable gravity anomaly. Episodic magma injections at the base of the magmatic system, such as the 1998–2000 intrusion at ~6 km depth, would bring heat and gas to the hydrothermal system while maintaining a low melt fraction in the magmatic mush, as imaged at other Cascade volcanoes.

Oregon

Biophysical controls on sediment erodibility in shallow estuarine embayments

The erodibility of cohesive sediment is known to vary both spatially and temporally but the factors governing its variation are not well understood. We conducted a field investigation of the influence of hydrodynamic forcing, sediment properties, and benthic infauna on erodibility in the muddy shallows of San Pablo and Grizzly Bays in northern San Francisco Bay in summer 2019 and winter 2020. An erosion rate parameter M c was determined from regressions between near-bed vertical turbulent sediment flux, as a proxy for erosion, and bed shear stress due to currents. During each 2-month study period, we measured benthic infauna abundance and dry bulk density, particle size distribution, percent organic carbon, chlorophyll a , pheophytin a , and carbohydrates carbon concentrations of surficial bed sediments five or six times. M c increased with bed shear stress due to waves in both embayments. In San Pablo Bay, erodibility was approximately 50% lower during the winter than the summer deployment, whereas in Grizzly Bay, there was no significant difference. The factor most strongly related to the decrease in M c in San Pablo Bay was increased abundance of the amphipod Ampelisca abdita . The observed reduction in erodibility may occur in many muddy estuaries because A. abdita is broadly distributed in the coastal waters of North America. Erodibility was also directly related to biomass of the invasive clam Potamocorbula amurensis . Erodibility did not depend on dry bulk density: bulk density did not vary seasonally in San Pablo Bay and was lower in winter than summer in Grizzly Bay.

California

More water, more of the time: Spatial changes in flooding over 83 years in the upper Mississippi River floodplain and relationships with streamgage-derived proxies

The hydrologic regime of the upper Mississippi River (UMR) has become wetter, with greater discharges, longer-lasting high-flow conditions, and seasonal shifts in these patterns over the past several decades. How these changes are expressed spatially as floodplain inundation area, frequency, depth, duration, and timing is not well understood. It is also unclear to what degree spatial patterns of submergence are represented by examining discharge data alone. We assessed changes in floodplain inundation characteristics from 1940 to 2022 in navigation pools 3–10 of the UMR using a geospatial model to simulate daily inundation depths. Inundation characteristics shifted significantly across pools, but the direction and magnitude of change varied by pool and metric. Characteristics summarized at the pool scale correlated with streamgage-derived proxies but the strength of the relationship varied. Within pools, variability in inundation trends highlighted the importance of spatially explicit modeling. Our study demonstrates that changes in discharge over 83 years have manifested across the UMR floodplain in ways that may have consequences for ecological patterns and processes. By mapping hydrologically sensitive areas, we can anticipate which areas may be susceptible to additional shifts in river discharge in a climatically uncertain future.

Iowa, Minnesota, Wiscosnin

A new inventory and conservation assessment of United States islands

To support conservation-focused research and management we developed a new 30-m resolution polygon data layer of the nonlacustrine and nonriverine islands of the United States, with associated attributes describing key physical and conservation geography characteristics. Islands were grouped into a three-tiered hierarchy of island regions (twelve), island provinces (twenty-eight), and individual islands (19,023). Islands were classified as either continental or oceanic based on their physiographic position relative to the North America continental shelf, and estuarine versus nonestuarine depending on their location within or external to estuaries. For each island we assessed the diversity of terrestrial and coastal ecosystems, the number of threatened and endangered (T&E) species listed under the Endangered Species Act, the number of T&E species critical habitats, the number of migratory bird species listed under the Migratory Bird Treaty Act, the number of Key Biodiversity Areas, and the number of and management responsibility for protected areas. We conclude that the conservation importance of islands is disproportionate to their total area as, for example, islands contain 52 percent of the T&E species yet their total area is only 2 percent of the area of the continental mainland. Similarly, of the global total of 431 World Terrestrial Ecosystems, 201 (47 percent) occur on U.S. islands compared with 286 (66 percent) that occur on the U.S. continental mainland.

Annals of the American Association of Geographers

Improved abundance trajectories with Bayesian population dynamics model: Case study with a Hawaiian honeycreeper

Many wildlife monitoring programmes collect annual data on population abundance. The resulting abundance estimates fluctuate over time partly because of true population change and partly because of observation error. These two components of variation can be separated by fitting the estimates to a population dynamics model within a Bayesian state-space modelling framework. By constraining the population trajectory to be biologically realistic, more precise estimates can be obtained. Independent biological knowledge can be incorporated through choice of model structure and by specifying informative prior distributions on demographic parameters. We illustrate the approach using a 31-year point transect study of the Hawai’i ’ākepa ( Loxops coccineus ). We fitted five models, each making different assumptions about how population change, recruitment and/or adult survival varied over time. Overall, the ’ākepa geometric mean growth rate was 1.02, indicating an increasing population over the 31-year time series, although there were periods of slow decline potentially associated with low recruitment and more rapid recovery associated with pulses of high recruitment. Abundance estimates derived from the population models were substantially more precise than the ‘raw’ point transect estimates: 95% credible interval (CrI) was on average 51.7% (s.d. = 14.1%) narrower.

Hawaii

Optimizing camera-trap survey designs for multi-species density estimation using spatial capture–recapture models

Conservation efforts are increasingly required to move beyond single-species perspectives and towards community-level inferences. Obtaining reliable multispecies population size estimates poses practical challenges as analytical tools and design recommendations are primarily focused on single species. Density estimation using spatial capture–recapture methods requires deploying detectors (e.g. camera-traps) with spacing proportional to the space use of the focal species. Given that the design itself is species-specific, sampling can be inefficient for species with larger ranges than the focal species due to restricted spatial coverage and insufficient for species with smaller ranges because fewer recaptures are generated. To address this practical issue, we developed a two-stage optimization approach to generate camera-trap survey designs that are appropriate for estimating density of a suite of individually identifiable species that vary in home range sizes. Our approach applies an algorithm to first optimize placement of a subset of detectors for large and vagile species based on maximizing spatial coverage, followed by a second optimization for the remaining cameras based on maximizing spatial recaptures for smaller and less mobile species. We empirically tested our approach using six individually identifiable carnivore species with varying home range sizes in the Munywana Conservancy, South Africa. Our design included 60 camera locations optimized for leopards ( Panthera pardus ) and 40 cameras optimized for small-bodied, less-mobile carnivores. Our design optimization procedure generated designs characterized by a distribution of inter-trap distances, based on ecological parameters, and resulted in plausible density estimates for all species. The two-stage approach resulted in moderate precision gains for larger ranging species and, importantly, substantial gains for smaller ranging species. Simulations demonstrated improved precision of spatially explicit capture–recapture (SCR) parameter estimates for all species compared to standard grid-based designs, driven not solely by increased sampling but also by the optimized spatial configuration. Synthesis and applications . We developed and tested a new camera-trap survey design method for estimating population densities for multiple co-occurring species with differing spatial ecologies. By streamlining multispecies population monitoring, our approach reduces costs associated with species-specific programmes and broadens opportunities for community ecology and conservation research based on explicit demographic parameters.

Munyawana Conservancy

Widespread abyssal turbidites record megathrust earthquake-triggered landslides and coseismic deformation in the Cascadia subduction zone

Abyssal marine turbidites provide some of the longest and most spatially extensive records of subduction zone earthquake recurrence globally; however, correlation of these deposits over long distances and interpretation of synchronous emplacement requires both an understanding of the turbidite generating systems and precise dating. Here, we present an integrated suite of high-resolution bathymetry, subbottom profiles, and sediment cores from combined autonomous underwater vehicle, remotely operated vehicle, and ship-based studies at a key paleoseismic site in the southern Cascadia subduction zone. We demonstrate how widespread, earthquake-triggered landslides on the lower slope deposit discrete, proximal mass transport deposits (MTDs) that grade offshore into complex, interfingered abyssal turbidites, which correspond to records of megathrust earthquake history. We propose accretion and oversteepening of thrust folds on the lower slope both preconditions the slope to fail and provides a perpetual source of unstable material to fail during every earthquake cycle. Furthermore, we suggest the periodic and pervasive landsliding indicates coseismic deformation of the outer accretionary wedge during megathrust rupture.

California, Oregon

Distributed faulting of the northern West Napa Fault Zone in Napa Valley, California

Mapped surface ruptures from the 24 August 2014 M w 6.0 South Napa earthquake in the Napa Valley, California, show a 2‐km‐wide zone of distributed faulting in the southern and central West Napa fault zone (WNFZ). In the northern WNFZ at Hendry Winery (HW), however, the mapped 2014 surface ruptures encompass an ∼100‐m‐wide zone, implying significant narrowing of the near‐surface fault zone to the north. We present a tomographic shear‐wave velocity ( ⁠⁠ V S ) model and guided‐wave data that indicate the northern WNFZ is at least 400‐m wide, with multiple near‐surface fault traces. Our V S model shows that the 2014 surface ruptures are underlain by discrete low‐velocity zones (LVZs), and coincident guided‐wave data show that the LVZs carry fault‐zone guided waves. If nearby (<500 m) mapped faults to the east of HW are part of the WNFZ, the entire WNFZ is more than 1 km wide in the northern Napa Valley. WNFZ guided waves travel up to 38% slower than S body waves, and low‐strain guided‐wave shaking is up to five times stronger than the associated body‐wave shaking. Our data suggest that guided waves, traveling along distributed faults, may result in an increased shaking hazard over a 1‐km‐wide area of the northern Napa Valley during future significant earthquakes. In places, the 2014 surface ruptures were difficult to find one year after the earthquake, and paleoseismic trenching showed only weak evidence for faulting, which may not have been identified in trenches if the locations of the 2014 surface ruptures had not been previously mapped ( Prentice et al. , 2015 ). Guided‐wave and V S tomography data, however, show strong evidence for faulting beneath the 2014 surface ruptures and at locations to the east. Although paleoseismic trenching is the gold standard for identifying near‐surface faulting, methods such as peak ground velocities of guided waves may better identify immature near‐surface fault traces.

California

Annual grass invasion is transforming the sagebrush biome’s songbird communities

Novel stressors like climate change and biological invasions alter ecological communities, resulting in changes to ecosystem services and biodiversity (that is, ecological transformation). Most ecological transformation research focuses on plants, but animals are likely affected by and plausibly mediate the extent, impact, and pace of transformations. In western North America, where invasive annual grasses are transforming sagebrush-steppe ecosystems, we quantified how transformation in vegetation drives songbird community change. We hypothesized that transformation of vegetation communities via invasion alters wildlife communities by favoring generalists over specialists, albeit with extinction debts that may temporarily obscure transformations’ consequences. Although local-scale songbird diversity increased with grass invasion, we found that this shift was accompanied by ongoing reorganization of songbird communities at larger scales (across the sagebrush biome), driven by heterogeneous impacts of invasion among species and guilds. Through our biome-wide analysis, we were also able to identify high-priority regions for conservation of sensitive songbird species. Our research provides evidence that wildlife communities are transforming alongside vegetation communities and offers insight into the approaches required to quantify nascent community turnover.

western United States

Identifying headwater streams across the conterminous United States

Headwater streams play critical roles in hydrologic and biogeochemical processes and functions, yet their spatial distribution and land cover context remain poorly understood at continental scales, and no dedicated geospatial dataset exists. Building from a high-resolution conterminous United States (CONUS) hydrography network dataset, we quantified the spatial extent, density, and upstream catchment characteristics of headwater stream segments across the CONUS. We identified approximately 8.4 million kilometers of headwater streams, finding that 77% of the total stream network consists of headwaters, nearly double the total length represented in prior estimates. Stream density varied fivefold across regions, from < 1 km·km −2 in arid basins to > 5 km·km −2 in humid, forested areas. Over 73% of the CONUS landmass drains from headwater streams. The majority of headwater stream length occurred in forested and cultivated catchments across the CONUS, while substantial regional differences were evident for headwater stream distribution in other land cover classes (for example, wetlands, urban areas, shrublands, and herbaceous-dominated catchments). The dedicated and novel geospatial dataset, HELiOS (HEadwater streams and Low-Order Systems) is introduced for management and research use. The HELiOS dataset provides the first continental-scale, high-resolution characterization of headwater streams, offering new insights and opportunities for hydrologic modeling, ecological assessments, and environmental policy.

conterminous United States

Plasticity in the reproductive biology of Yellowstone cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus virginalis bouvieri in Yellowstone Lake following lake trout Salvelinus namaycush invasion

Yellowstone cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus virginalis bouvieri in Yellowstone Lake are the focus of intensive conservation efforts due to the threat of predation by invasive lake trout Salvelinus namaycush . Suppression gillnetting has reduced the abundance of predatory lake trout, and the Yellowstone cutthroat trout population is recovering. Long-term monitoring indicates the size structure of the population shifted following lake trout invasion, suggesting that reproductive demographic rates of Yellowstone cutthroat trout may have changed. Length at 50% probability of maturity, as assessed using histological analysis of gonadal tissue, was 479 mm (95% confidence interval [CI] 467–490 mm) for females and 406 mm (95% CI 386–430 mm) for males, compared to 330 mm for males and females historically. Currently, age at 50% probability of maturity is 6.6 for females and 5.4 for males. The rate of skipped spawning was 3% for females and 38% for males. Mean absolute fecundity was 2897 ovarian follicles/individual at present compared to 1141 ovarian follicles/individual before lake trout invasion. Mean relative fecundity was 2157 ovarian follicles/kg. This research illustrates the plasticity in the reproductive strategies of fishes as a result of an invasive species. Understanding the reproductive biology of fish populations is vital for effective fisheries management, and these results are integral to a population model that can be used to develop new conservation benchmarks for Yellowstone cutthroat trout.

Wyoming

Bird predation obscures detection of acoustic telemetry tags in fish

Increasing application of acoustic telemetry for determining survival, migration and habitat use of fishes highlights the need to improve interpretation of tracks that end abruptly: when is fishing mortality, predation, or some other cause to be inferred? Significant technological advances have led to the development of tags that “sense” predation and can be used to infer information about the type of predator that consumed the tagged fish. However, growing evidence suggests that bird predation is not effectively quantified by the technology. We hypothesized that reduction in sound transmission from acoustic tags in the gut of a bird combined with short bird diving intervals would eliminate detections of acoustic telemetry tags from the surface and severely reduce detection efficiency at depth. We test this hypothesis indirectly with two experiments using cormorant carcasses containing tagged fish in which carcasses were either tethered to a mooring for several hours or lowered through the water to simulate diving behavior. Detection of tagged prey fish in the gut of bird carcasses was severely reduced or negated completely, supporting our hypothesis. By comparison, as expected, tagged fish that were not in the gut of bird carcasses were detected at a higher frequency. Depth and distance to passive moored receivers also affected detection probability of tagged fish with more detections at depth and when closer to the receiver. Our results emphasized the importance of accounting for avian predation of tagged fish in studies of prey species in surface waters. Further, while recent development of predation sensing tags has illustrated a few examples of bird predation, our results demonstrate that determining that a tagged fish has been consumed by a diving bird will be difficult and will likely require alternative methods or technologies.

Animal Biotelemetry

Small creatures, big challenge: A review of current knowledge and assessment of research needs to inform water withdrawal management for the Duck River's freshwater mussel fauna

The Duck River is a remarkable national resource, boasting outstanding biodiversity (Ahlstedt et al. 2017). It contains 151 fish species, over 60 mussel species, and 22 snail species, many of which are federally listed (Etnier and Starnes 1993; Johnson et al. 2013; Ahlstedt et al. 2017; Womble and Rosenberger 2025a). The Duck River watershed is at a pivotal time in its management and ecological history due to significant growth in human population and economic activity. The consequent increase in surface water demand presents challenges for sustainable water resource management. The Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation (TDEC) has permitted or proposed to permit eight water utilities to withdraw over 77 million gallons per day (mgd) from the Duck River, representing > 40% increase from previously permitted amounts (USFWS 2025). On November 20, 2024, Tennessee Governor Bill Lee signed Executive Order No 108 to ensure long-term stability of the Duck River watershed through balancing economic growth, water resource management, and environmental conservation. Some primary components of this plan are the creation of a Comprehensive Regional Drought Management Plan, the development of a Habitat Conservation Plan, and the establishment of the Duck River Watershed Planning Partnership (DRWPP). Although the planning partnership is not focused on a sole aspect of the Duck River, but the watershed as a whole, the mussel assemblages of the Duck River have been a particular focus due to their importance in providing ecosystem services, sensitivity to water quality, conservation status, and sensitivity to periodic drought conditions in this system. With multiple state and federal agencies involved in managing the Duck River’s unique water resources, a focused review on how future water management could affect the freshwater mussel communities in the Duck River will contribute to this process. Our objectives of this review are to: 1. Review the effects of changing flow regimes on mussels, with emphasis on the effect of droughts/low flows, highlighting key processes/factors affecting mussels. 2. Highlight critical data gaps that could allow future, evidence-based water management decisions in this system. 3. Propose research topics to address critical data gaps and enable evidence-based water management decisions that consider the needs of freshwater mussels. Freshwater mussels are a critical component of riverine ecosystems, providing ecosystem services including water filtration, nutrient cycling, and habitat provision (Vaughn et al. 2004; Haag 2012) that benefit human communities. Environmental flows, also referred to as ecological or e-flows, refer to the quantity, timing, and quality of water flows necessary to maintain the ecological health of rivers, wetlands, and other aquatic ecosystems (Acreman and Dunbar 2004; Acreman 2016). For freshwater mussels, environmental flows include maintaining a flow regime and associated water quality regimes that are favorable for both juveniles and adults while also seasonally supporting host fish and the survival of settling glochidia (i.e., larval mussels) in suitable environments (Gates et al. 2015). Freshwater mussels are adapted to the natural flow regime of their native streams, including seasonal variability in flows. As sedentary filter feeders, mussels require adequate water flow to provide oxygen and food (Allen and Vaughn 2009); however, they also require periods of low flow to increase access to fish hosts and to ensure juveniles are not displaced (Gates et al 2015). Mussels are sensitive to water quality conditions, including pollutants, sedimentation, and artificial alterations of temperature and pH (Strayer and Malcom 2012). Mussel community characteristics, including presence, abundance, and species richness, generally increase with stream size (e.g., stream order); however, responses to changes in flow conditions are often species-specific, and the magnitude and timing of extreme flow conditions have more predictive power for mussel community response than general changes in flow (Lopez and Vaughn 2021). Complex hydraulic variables, such as relative shear stress and Reynolds number, can be strong predictors of mussel community responses because they combine simple hydraulic variables (e.g., velocity, depth) with stream channel characteristics, such as substrate composition and dynamics. Droughts directly and indirectly affect mussels by influencing their physiology, behavior, reproduction, and ecosystem roles. Mass mussel die-offs during droughts and low water conditions are widely documented (Vaughn et al. 2015; Sousa et al. 2018; Dubose et al. 2019). Droughts can also lead to a shift in mussel community composition, with drought-tolerant species becoming more dominant while more sensitive species experience declines (Galbraith et al, 2010; Lopez et al. 2022; Vaughn and Atkinson 2025). Droughts affect mussels through direct mortality from stranding as well as physiological stress from altered water temperature and quality, reduced habitat and food availability and quality, increased predation and competition, disruption of reproductive cycles, and increased susceptibility to disease and pathogens. Although the effects of droughts, water withdrawals, and low flow conditions on mussels are an increasing area of study, there is a general paucity of data-driven consensus regarding optimal mitigation approaches and strategies (Cushway et al. 2024). Long-term management decisions regarding water withdrawals, particularly during extended or multi-year drought conditions, may consider factors beyond direct mortality such as the sublethal effects of drought and low flow conditions on freshwater mussels for a comprehensive understanding of the effects of prolonged low flows on freshwater mussels and aquatic communities.

Tennessee

Habitat-based predictions of bridle shiner ( Notropis bifrenatus ) in the northeastern U.S.

We sought to assess bridle shiner ( Notropis bifrenatus ) habitat associations at local and regional scales across southern Maine and New Hampshire. We used local habitat data at 95 Maine sites to predict occupancy with classification and regression trees (CART). We then used ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) to model the historical (1898–2008) and current (2009–2022) ranges of the species. We used the BIOMOD platform to model the association between 35 environmental variables and bridle shiner presence during both time periods and at fine (pseudo-HUC14) and coarse (HUC12) spatial scales. We then calculated the change in predicted occupied drainages to estimate the change in the species' distribution at both scales. Within a site, bridle shiners were associated with submerged aquatic vegetation, organic substrate, and watermilfoil ( Myriophyllum spp.). SDMs revealed an association with Appalachian (Hemlock-)Northern Hardwood Forest, sand substrate, and low-elevation terrain (at both spatial scales). Ensemble fine-scale SDMs suggest a substantial loss of historical bridle shiner habitat in both Maine (36% of drainages) and New Hampshire (16%), with comparable described losses (of 21% and 14%) at a coarse scale. Our local and regional models may be used to focus surveys on areas with high predicted habitat suitability or to inform habitat restoration efforts.

Maine, New Hampshire

Characterizing the influence of remotely sensed wetland and lake water storage on discharge using LSTM models

Globally, many wetlands and lakes are at risk for further loss, which can amplify downstream consequences of flood and drought events. We derived remotely sensed based time series of surface water storage (SW storage ) to determine when and where accounting for SW storage dynamics improves predictions of river discharge. We trained four long short-term memory (LSTM) models, that differed in their inclusion of storage data and catchment characteristics, to simulate daily river discharge (2016–2023) for select watersheds across the conterminous United States. Adding SW storage to a meteorology-only or meteorology-and-catchment characteristics model improved upon model Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) in 80.6% of the watersheds. Residuals during low-flow (Q70) events decreased by 47.6% when adding storage to meteorological data. Improvements were most consistent in ecoregions with a greater abundance of non-floodplain lakes and wetlands. This effort represents the first exploration to train a multi-watershed LSTM on landscape-scale remotely sensed time series of SW storage .

conterminous United States