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An overview on current fluid-inclusion research and applications

This paper provides an overview of some of the more important developments in fluid-inclusion research and applications in recent years, including fluid-inclusion petrography, PVTX studies, and analytical techniques. In fluid-inclusion petrography, the introduction of the concept of 'fluid-inclusion assemblage' has been a major advance. In PVTX studies, the use of synthetic fluid inclusions and hydrothermal diamond-anvil cells has greatly contributed to the characterization of the phase behaviour of geologically relevant fluid systems. Various analytical methods are being developed and refined rapidly, with the Laser-Raman and LA-ICP-MS techniques being particularly useful for volatile and solute analyses, respectively. Ore deposit research has been and will continue to be the main field of application of fluid inclusions. However, fluid inclusions have been increasingly applied to other fields of earth science, especially in petroleum geology and the study of magmatic and earth interior processes.

Acta Petrologica Sinica

Advancing best practices for the analysis of the vulnerability of military installations in the Pacific Basin to coastal flooding under a changing climate – RC-2644

Coastal flooding takes many forms, ranging from major flooding associated with storms to minor flooding associated with exceptionally high tides and other oceanic and atmospheric phenomena on storm-free days. A major societal challenge is to understand and predict how flood magnitude and frequency will manifest at particular places and times, now and in the future. Of particular interest here is how coastal flooding will impact Department of Defense (DoD) installations. In response to this need, this work aims to advance the practical application of statistical and other analytical techniques that can be used to assess the exposure, and ultimately the vulnerability, of built and natural environments to the impacts of coastal flooding. A variety of methods are described and applied to assess exposure. This includes tide gauge station-based diagnosis and prognosis of patterns and trends of Still Water Level, techniques to characterize the expression of ‘lesser extremes’ (e.g., sub-annual to subdecadal event probabilities), and region-wide analysis that improves upon results obtained from conventional single-tide gauge analyses. A novel hybrid statistical and dynamical modeling approach is applied to the analysis of Total Water Levels, necessary for exposure assessment along shorelines exposed to wave action. The hybrid exposure assessment modeling approach is incorporated into a broader mission-based protocol for the assessment of resilience to coastal flooding at the installation level. Demonstrated via an exemplar assessment, which takes into account functional (lost day) as well as financial impacts (lost dollars), the protocol meets the demand for an actionable characterization of how DoD installations will be affected by coastal flooding and improves DoD’s ability to make informed decisions about how to adapt to its effects. The methods described, evaluated, and applied here, including innovative approaches and proof-of-concept products developed through this work, are incorporated into and considered within an analytical framework that serves as guidance as to their relative merits with respect to coastal flood exposure assessment in various circumstances and settings, and illustrates best practices. This will provide engineers, scientists and other practitioners with an enhanced capability to generate information that can be used to support area-wide assessment related to climate adaptation planning and disaster risk reduction as well as site-specific analysis related to design and maintenance of facilities and infrastructure. While the focus is on a select set of DoD sites in the Pacific Basin, the results have broad applicability nationally as well as globally.

Final Report

Estimating sediment discharge: Appendix D

Sediment-discharge measurements usually are available on a discrete or periodic basis. However, estimates of sediment transport often are needed for unmeasured periods, such as when daily or annual sediment-discharge values are sought, or when estimates of transport rates for unmeasured or hypothetical flows are required. Selected methods for estimating suspended-sediment, bed-load, bed- material-load, and total-load discharges have been presented in some detail elsewhere in this volume. The purposes of this contribution are to present some limitations and potential pitfalls associated with obtaining and using the requisite data and equations to estimate sediment discharges and to provide guidance for selecting appropriate estimating equations. Records of sediment discharge are derived from data collected with sufficient frequency to obtain reliable estimates for the computational interval and period. Most sediment- discharge records are computed at daily or annual intervals based on periodically collected data, although some partial records represent discrete or seasonal intervals such as those for flood periods. The method used to calculate sediment- discharge records is dependent on the types and frequency of available data. Records for suspended-sediment discharge computed by methods described by Porterfield (1972) are most prevalent, in part because measurement protocols and computational techniques are well established and because suspended sediment composes the bulk of sediment dis- charges for many rivers. Discharge records for bed load, total load, or in some cases bed-material load plus wash load are less common. Reliable estimation of sediment discharges presupposes that the data on which the estimates are based are comparable and reliable. Unfortunately, data describing a selected characteristic of sediment were not necessarily derived—collected, processed, analyzed, or interpreted—in a consistent manner. For example, bed-load data collected with different types of bed-load samplers may not be comparable (Gray et al. 1991; Childers 1999; Edwards and Glysson 1999). The total suspended solids (TSS) analytical method tends to produce concentration data from open-channel flows that are biased low with respect to their paired suspended-sediment concentration values, particularly when sand-size material composes more than about a quarter of the material in suspension. Instantaneous sediment-discharge values based on TSS data may differ from the more reliable product of suspended- sediment concentration values and the same water-discharge data by an order of magnitude (Gray et al. 2000; Bent et al. 2001; Glysson et al. 2000; 2001). An assessment of data comparability and reliability is an important first step in the estimation of sediment discharges. There are two approaches to obtaining values describing sediment loads in streams. One is based on direct measurement of the quantities of interest, and the other on relations developed between hydraulic parameters and sediment- transport potential. In the next sections, the most common techniques for both approaches are briefly addressed.

Book chapter

Genetic tagging in the Anthropocene: Scaling ecology from alleles to ecosystems

The Anthropocene is an era of marked human impact on the world. Quantifying these impacts 51 has become central to understanding the dynamics of coupled human-natural systems, resource52 dependent livelihoods, and biodiversity conservation. Ecologists are facing growing pressure to 53 quantify the size, distribution, and trajectory of wild populations in a cost-effective and socially54 acceptable manner. Genetic tagging, combined with modern computational and genetic analyses, 55 is an under-utilized tool to meet this demand, especially for wide-ranging, elusive, sensitive, and 56 low-density species. Genetic tagging studies are now revealing unprecedented insight into the 57 mechanisms that control the density, trajectory, connectivity and human-wildlife conflict for 58 populations over vast spatial scales. Here we outline the application of, and ecological inferences 59 from, new analytical techniques applied to genetically-tagged individuals, contrast this approach 60 with conventional methods, and describe how genetic tagging can be better applied to address 61 outstanding questions in ecology. We provide example analyses using a long-term genetic 62 tagging dataset of grizzly bears in the Canadian Rockies. The genetic tagging toolbox is a 63 powerful and overlooked ensemble that ecologists and conservation biologists can leverage to 64 generate evidence and meet the challenges of the Anthropocene.

Ecological Applications

Application of genetics and genomics to wildlife epidemiology

Wildlife diseases can have significant impacts on wildlife conservation and management. Many of the pathogens that affect wildlife also have important implications for domestic animal and human health. However, management interventions to prevent or control wildlife disease are hampered by uncertainties about the complex interactions between pathogens and free-ranging wildlife. We often lack crucial knowledge about host ecology, pathogen characteristics, and host–pathogen dynamics. The purpose of this review is to familiarize wildlife biologists and managers with the application of genetic and genomic methodologies for investigating pathogen and host biology to better understand and manage wildlife diseases. The genesis of this review was a symposium at the 2013 annual Wildlife Society Conference. We reviewed the scientific literature and used our personal experiences to identify studies that illustrate the application of genetic and genomic methods to advance our understanding of wildlife epidemiology, focusing on recent research, new techniques, and innovative approaches. Using examples from a variety of pathogen types and a broad array of vertebrate taxa, we describe how genetics and genomics can provide tools to detect and characterize pathogens, uncover routes of disease transmission and spread, shed light on the ways that disease susceptibility is influenced by both host and pathogen attributes, and elucidate the impacts of disease on wildlife populations. Genetic and increasingly genomic methodologies will continue to contribute important insights into pathogen and host biology that will aid efforts to assess and mitigate the impacts of wildlife diseases on global health and conservation of biodiversity.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Response of a 42-storey steel-frame building to the Ms = 7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake

A set of 14 acceleration records was obtained from a 42-storey steel-frame building, the Chevron Building, in San Francisco during the M s = 7.1 "> M s = 7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake of 17 October 1989. Data were analysed using a system identification method based on the discretetime linear filtering, and the least-squares estimation techniques. The results show that the response of the building is dominated by two modes: a translational mode in the weaker (southwest-northeast) principal direction of the building at 0.16 Hz with 5% damping, and a translational-torsional mode along the east-west diagonal of the building's cross-section at 0.20 Hz with 7% damping. There are significant contributions from higher modes at 0.54 Hz, 0.62 Hz, 1.02 Hz and 1.09 Hz. All the modes incorporate some torsion, but the amplitudes of torsional components are small, about 10% of translational amplitudes. Soil-structure interaction influences the vibrations near 1.0 Hz. The contribution of soil-structure interaction to the peak displacements of the building is significant, particularly at lower floors.

California

Quantification of manganese for ChemCam Mars and laboratory spectra using a multivariate model

We report a new calibration model for manganese using the laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy instrument that is part of the ChemCam instrument suite onboard the NASA Curiosity rover. The model has been trained using an expanded set of 523 manganese-bearing rock, mineral, metal ore, and synthetic standards. The optimal calibration model uses the Partial Least Squares (PLS) and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) multivariate techniques, with a novel “double blending” technique. We determined the detection limit for manganese is 82 ppm using a method blank procedure and is possibly as low as 27 ppm based on visual inspection of the spectra. Based on a representative test set consisting of measurements on 93 standards, the double blended multivariate model shows a Root Mean Squared Error of Prediction (RMSEP) accuracy of 1.39 wt% MnO for the full blended model. Employing a local RMSEP estimate where the model performance is evaluated based on nearby test samples, the accuracy is 0.03 wt% at the quantification limit (0.05 wt% MnO), 0.4 wt% accuracy at 1.0 wt% MnO, and 4.4 wt% accuracy at 100 wt% MnO. Precision is estimated using the standard deviation of the test set measurements, and is ±0.01 wt% MnO at the quantification limit, ±0.09 wt% MnO at 1.0 wt% MnO, and ± 2.1 wt% MnO at 100 wt% MnO (all 1 standard deviation). This new calibration is important for understanding the variation of manganese in the bedrock with the Curiosity rover on Mars, which provides insight into past redox conditions on Mars.

Spectrochimica Acta B

Physical modeling of river spanning rock structures: Evaluating interstitial flow, local hydraulics, downstream scour development, and structure stability

Rock weir and ramp structures uniquely serve a necessary role in river management: to meet water deliveries in an ecologically sound manner. Uses include functioning as low head diversion dams, permitting fish passage, creating habitat diversity, and stabilizing stream banks and profiles. Existing information on design and performance of in-stream rock structures does not provide the guidance necessary to implement repeatable and sustainable construction and retrofit techniques. As widespread use of rock structures increases, the need for reliable design methods with a broad range of applicability at individual sites grows as well. Rigorous laboratory testing programs were implemented at the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) and at Colorado State University (CSU) as part of a multifaceted research project focused on expanding the current knowledge base and developing design methods to improve the success rate of river spanning rock structures in meeting project goals. Physical modeling at Reclamation is being used to measure, predict, and reduce interstitial flow through rock ramps. CSU is using physical testing to quantify and predict scour development downstream of rock weirs and its impact on the stability of rock structures. ?? 2009 ASCE.

Conference Paper

Areal flood-frequency analysis in a humid region

This study was made to define the relation between floods in a humid region and the causative factors that account for their variability. The study covered the basic relationships between peak discharges and hydrologic factors as well as the practical working methods for generalizing the results on a regional basis. Statistical multiple-correlation techniques were applied to hydrologic data in New England. A field and library investigation of historical flood data extended the period of flood knowledge to as much as 300 years. The relation of many topographic and climatic factors to flood peaks was tested. Flood peaks with recurrence intervals at 9 levels, from 1.2 to 300 years, were related to 6 independent variables, 3 of which are topographic, 2 climatic, and 1 orographic.

International Association of Scientific Hydrology

3-D joint geodetic and strong-motion finite fault inversion of the 2008 May 12, Wenchuan, China Earthquake

We present a source inversion of the 2008 Wenchuan, China earthquake, using strong-motion waveforms and geodetic offsets together with three-dimensional synthetic ground motions. We applied the linear multiple time window technique considering geodetic and dynamic Green's functions computed with the finite element method and the reciprocity and Strain Green’s Tensor formalism. All ground motion estimates, valid up to 1 Hz, accounted for three-dimensional effects, including the topography and the geometry of the Beichuan and Pengguan faults. Our joint inversion has a higher moment (M0) than a purely geodetic inversion and the slip distribution presents differences when compared to one-dimensional model source inversions. The moment is estimated to be M0=1.2x1021 Nm, slightly larger than other works. Our results show that considering a complex 3D structure reduces the size of large areas of 10 m slip or greater by distributing it in wider zones, with reduced slips, in the central portion of the Beichuan and the Pengguan faults. Finally, we compare our source with a relocated aftershock catalog and conclude that the 4-5 m slip contours approximately bound the absence or presence of aftershocks.

Wenchuan

Mapping three-dimensional surface deformation by combining multiple-aperture interferometry and conventional interferometry: Application to the June 2007 eruption of Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii

Surface deformation caused by an intrusion and small eruption during June 17-19, 2007, along the East Rift Zone of Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii, was three-dimensionally reconstructed from radar interferograms acquired by the Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) phased-array type L-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) (PALSAR) instrument. To retrieve the 3-D surface deformation, a method that combines multiple-aperture interferometry (MAI) and conventional interferometric SAR (InSAR) techniques was applied to one ascending and one descending ALOS PALSAR interferometric pair. The maximum displacements as a result of the intrusion and eruption are about 0.8, 2, and 0.7 m in the east, north, and up components, respectively. The radar-measured 3-D surface deformation agrees with GPS data from 24 sites on the volcano, and the root-mean-square errors in the east, north, and up components of the displacement are 1.6, 3.6, and 2.1 cm, respectively. Since a horizontal deformation of more than 1 m was dominantly in the north-northwest-south-southeast direction, a significant improvement of the north-south component measurement was achieved by the inclusion of MAI measurements that can reach a standard deviation of 3.6 cm. A 3-D deformation reconstruction through the combination of conventional InSAR and MAI will allow for better modeling, and hence, a more comprehensive understanding, of the source geometry associated with volcanic, seismic, and other processes that are manifested by surface deformation.

Hawai'i

RAD sequencing yields a high success rate for westslope cutthroat and rainbow trout species-diagnostic SNP assays

Hybridization with introduced rainbow trout threatens most native westslope cutthroat trout populations. Understanding the genetic effects of hybridization and introgression requires a large set of high-throughput, diagnostic genetic markers to inform conservation and management. Recently, we identified several thousand candidate single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers based on RAD sequencing of 11 westslope cutthroat trout and 13 rainbow trout individuals. Here, we used flanking sequence for 56 of these candidate SNP markers to design high-throughput genotyping assays. We validated the assays on a total of 92 individuals from 22 populations and seven hatchery strains. Forty-six assays (82%) amplified consistently and allowed easy identification of westslope cutthroat and rainbow trout alleles as well as heterozygote controls. The 46 SNPs will provide high power for early detection of population admixture and improved identification of hybrid and nonhybridized individuals. This technique shows promise as a very low-cost, reliable and relatively rapid method for developing and testing SNP markers for nonmodel organisms with limited genomic resources.

Molecular Ecology Resources

Evidence of Culiseta mosquitoes as vectors for Plasmodium parasites in Alaska

Mosquito vectors play a crucial role in the distribution of avian Plasmodium parasites worldwide. At northern latitudes, where climate warming is most pronounced, there are questions about possible changes in the abundance and distribution of Plasmodium parasites, their vectors, and their impacts to avian hosts. To better understand the transmission of Plasmodium among local birds and to gather baseline data on potential vectors, we sampled a total of 3,909 mosquitoes from three locations in south‐central Alaska during the summer of 2016. We screened mosquitoes for the presence of Plasmodium parasites using molecular techniques and estimated Plasmodium infection rates per 1,000 mosquitoes using maximum likelihood methods. We found low estimated infection rates across all mosquitoes (1.28 per 1,000), with significantly higher rates in Culiseta mosquitoes (7.91 per 1,000) than in Aedes mosquitoes (0.57 per 1,000). We detected Plasmodium in a single head/thorax sample of Culiseta , indicating potential for transmission of these parasites by mosquitoes of this genus. Plasmodium parasite DNA isolated from mosquitoes showed a 100% identity match to the BT7 Plasmodium lineage that has been detected in numerous avian species worldwide. Additionally, microscopic analysis of blood smears collected from black‐capped chickadees ( Poecile atricapillus ) at the same locations revealed infection by parasites preliminarily identified as Plasmodium circumflexum . Results from our study provide the first information on Plasmodium infection rates in Alaskan mosquitoes and evidence that Culiseta species may play a role in the transmission and maintenance of Plasmodium parasites in this region.

Alaska

American alligator digestion rate of blue crabs and its implications for stomach contents analysis

Stomach contents analysis (SCA) provides a snap-shot observation of a consumer's diet. Interpretation of SCA data can be complicated by many factors, including variation in gastric residence times and digestion rates among prey taxa. Although some SCA methods are reported to efficiently remove all stomach contents, the effectiveness of these techniques has rarely been tested for large irregular shaped prey with hard exoskeletons. We used a controlled feeding trial to estimate gastric residency time and decomposition rate of a large crustacean prey item, the Blue Crab ( Callinectes sapidus ), which is consumed by American Alligators ( Alligator mississippiensis ), an abundant apex predator in coastal habitats of the southeastern United States. The decomposition rate of C. sapidus in the stomachs of A. mississippiensis followed a predictable pattern, and some crab pieces remained in stomachs for at least 14 days. We also found that certain portions of C. sapidus were prone to becoming caught within the stomach or esophagus, meaning not all crab parts are consistently recovered using gastric lavage techniques. However, because the state of decomposition of crabs was predictable, it is possible to estimate time since consumption for crabs recovered from wild alligators. This information, coupled with a detailed understanding of crab distributions and alligator movement tactics could help elucidate patterns of cross-ecosystem foraging by the American Alligator in coastal habitats

Copeia

Estimates of ground-water recharge based on streamflow-hydrograph methods: Pennsylvania

This study, completed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Pennsylvania Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, Bureau of Topographic and Geologic Survey (T&GS), provides estimates of ground-water recharge for watersheds throughout Pennsylvania computed by use of two automated streamflow-hydrograph-analysis methods--PART and RORA. The PART computer program uses a hydrograph-separation technique to divide the streamflow hydrograph into components of direct runoff and base flow. Base flow can be a useful approximation of recharge if losses and interbasin transfers of ground water are minimal. The RORA computer program uses a recession-curve displacement technique to estimate ground-water recharge from each storm period indicated on the streamflow hydrograph. Recharge estimates were made using streamflow records collected during 1885-2001 from 197 active and inactive streamflow-gaging stations in Pennsylvania where streamflow is relatively unaffected by regulation. Estimates of mean-annual recharge in Pennsylvania computed by the use of PART ranged from 5.8 to 26.6 inches; estimates from RORA ranged from 7.7 to 29.3 inches. Estimates from the RORA program were about 2 inches greater than those derived from the PART program. Mean-monthly recharge was computed from the RORA program and was reported as a percentage of mean-annual recharge. On the basis of this analysis, the major ground-water recharge period in Pennsylvania typically is November through May; the greatest monthly recharge typically occurs in March.

Pennsylvania

Comparison of vertical discretization techniques in finite-difference models of ground-water flow; example from a hypothetical New England setting

Proper discretization of a ground-water-flow field is necessary for the accurate simulation of ground-water flow by models. Although discretiza- tion guidelines are available to ensure numerical stability, current guidelines arc flexible enough (particularly in vertical discretization) to allow for some ambiguity of model results. Testing of two common types of vertical-discretization schemes (horizontal and nonhorizontal-model-layer approach) were done to simulate sloping hydrogeologic units characteristic of New England. Differences of results of model simulations using these two approaches are small. Numerical errors associated with use of nonhorizontal model layers are small (4 percent). even though this discretization technique does not adhere to the strict formulation of the finite-difference method. It was concluded that vertical discretization by means of the nonhorizontal layer approach has advantages in representing the hydrogeologic units tested and in simplicity of model-data input. In addition, vertical distortion of model cells by this approach may improve the representation of shallow flow processes.

Open-File Report

Potential effects of alterations to the hydrologic system on the distribution of salinity in the Biscayne aquifer in Broward County, Florida

To address concerns about the effects of water-resource management practices and rising sea level on saltwater intrusion, the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Broward County Environmental Planning and Community Resilience Division, initiated a study to examine causes of saltwater intrusion and predict the effects of future alterations to the hydrologic system on salinity distribution in eastern Broward County, Florida. A three-dimensional, variable-density solute-transport model was calibrated to conditions from 1970 to 2012, the period for which data are most complete and reliable, and was used to simulate historical conditions from 1950 to 2012. These types of models are typically difficult to calibrate by matching to observed groundwater salinities because of spatial variability in aquifer properties that are unknown, and natural and anthropogenic processes that are complex and unknown; therefore, the primary goal was to reproduce major trends and locally generalized distributions of salinity in the Biscayne aquifer. The methods used in this study are relatively new, and results will provide transferable techniques for protecting groundwater resources and maximizing groundwater availability in coastal areas. The model was used to (1) evaluate the sensitivity of the salinity distribution in groundwater to sea-level rise and groundwater pumping, and (2) simulate the potential effects of increases in pumping, variable rates of sea-level rise, movement of a salinity control structure, and use of drainage recharge wells on the future distribution of salinity in the aquifer. Results from the simulation of historical conditions indicate that the model generally represents the observed greater westward extent of elevated salinity in the central part of the intruded area relative to the northern and southernmost parts of the intruded area. Results of sensitivity testing indicate that the extent of elevated salinity is most sensitive to pumping in areas where the source of saltwater is largely offshore, from the Atlantic Ocean, and is most sensitive to sea-level rise in areas where the source of salinity is downward leakage of brackish water from canals. Simulations of future scenarios indicate that increases in pumping near the existing interface may cause the interface to advance and decreases in pumping may cause it to retreat. Climatic effects, such as periods of prolonged drought or high precipitation, may augment or counteract long-term effects of changes in pumping on aquifer salinity at well fields. With increasing rates of sea-level rise, the freshwater-saltwater interface advances progressively inland, and flow-averaged salinities at well fields near the existing interface increase commensurately. Hypothetical southeastward (downstream) re-positioning of the existing G–54 salinity-control structure may prevent the interface from moving northwestward along and near the North New River canal, but beneficial effects are localized. Implementation of freshwater recharge wells in the city of Hallandale Beach may also have only a localized freshening effect in the aquifer and little appreciable effect on the freshwater-saltwater interface or on concentrations of salinity at well fields. Model accuracy and use are limited by uncertainty in the physical properties and boundary conditions of the system, uncertainty in historical and future conditions, and generalizations made in the mathematical relationships used to describe the physical processes of groundwater flow and transport. Because of these limitations, model results should be considered in relative rather than absolute terms. Nonetheless, model results do provide useful information on the relative scale of response of the system to changes in pumping distribution, sea-level rise, and mitigation activities.

Florida

Hydrologic budget of the Beaverdam Creek basin, Maryland

A hydrologic budget is a statement accounting for the water gains and losses for selected periods in an area. Weekly measurements of precipitation streamflow, surface-water storage, ground-water stage, and soil resistivity were made during a 2year period, April 1, 1950, to March 28, 1952, in the Beaverdam Creek basin, Wicomico County, Md. The hydrologic measurements are summarized in two budgets, a total budget and a ground-water budget, and in supporting tables and graphs. The results of the investigation have some potentially significant applications because they describe a method for determining the annual replenishment of the water supply of a basin and the ways of water disposal under natural conditions. The information helps to determine the 'safe' yield of water in diversion from natural to artificial discharge. The drainage basin of Beaverdam Creek was selected because it appeared to have fewer hydrologic variables than are generally found. However, the methods may prove applicable in many places under a variety of conditions. The measurements are expressed in inches of water over the area of the basin. The equation of the hydrologic cycle is the budget balance: P= R+E+ASW+ delta SW + delta SM + delta GW where P is precipitation; R is runoff; ET is evapotranspiration; delta SW is change in surface-water storage; delta SM is change in soil moisture; and delta GW is change in ground-water storage. In this report 'change' is the final quantity minus the initial quantity and thus is synonymous with 'increase.' Further, ,delta GW= delta H .x Yg, in which delta H is the change in ground-water stage and Yg is the gravity yield, or the specific yield of the sediments as measured during the short periods of declining ground-water levels characteristic of the area. The complex sum of the revised equation P ? R - delta SW ? ET - delta SM, which is equal to delta H. x Yg, has been named the 'infiltration residual'; it is equivalent to ground-water recharge. Two unmeasured, but not entirely unknown, quantities, evapotranspiration, (ET) and gravity yield, (Yg), are included in the equation. They are derived statistically by a method of convergent approximations, one of the contributions of this investigation. On the basis of laboratory analysis, well-field tests, and general information on rates of drainage from saturated sediments, a gravity yield of 14 percent was assumed as a first approximation. The equation was then solved, by weeks, for evapotranspiration, ET. The evapotranspiration losses were plotted against the calendar week. Using the time of year as a control, a smooth curve was fitted to the evapotranspiration data, and modified values of ET were read from the curve. These were used to compute weekly values of the infiltration residual which were plotted against ground-water stage. The slope of the line of best fit gave a closer approximation of gravity yield, Yg. The process was repeated. The approximations converged, so that a fourth and final approximation resulted in a close grouping of all the points along a line whose slope indicated a Yg of 11.0 percent, and a slightly asymmetric bell-shaped curve of total evapotranspiration by weeks was obtained that is considered representative of this area. Check calculations of gravity yield were made during periods of low evapotranspiration and high infiltration, which substantiate the computed average of 11.0 percent. Refinements in the method of deriving the ground-water budget were introduced to supplement the techniques developed by Meinzer and Stearns in the study of the Pomperaug River basin in Connecticut in 1913 and 1916. The hydrologic equation for the ground-water cycle may be written Gr=D + delta H. x Yg + ETg, in which Gr is ground-water recharge (infiltration); D is ground-water drainage; delta H is the change in mean ground-water stage (final stage minus initial stage); Yg is gravity yield (taken as 11.0 percent in computations here); an

Water Supply Paper