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USGS2021

Connectivity of Mojave Desert tortoise populations—Management implications for maintaining a viable recovery network

Executive Summary The historic distribution of Mojave desert tortoises ( Gopherus agassizii ) was relatively continuous across the range, and the importance of tortoise habitat outside of designated tortoise conservation areas (TCAs) to recovery has long been recognized for its contributions to supporting gene flow between TCAs and to minimizing impacts and edge effects within TCAs. However, connectivity of Mojave desert tortoise populations has become a concern because of recent and proposed development of large tracts of desert tortoise habitat that cross, fragment, and surround designated conservation areas. This paper summarizes the underlying concepts and importance of connectivity for Mojave desert tortoise populations by reviewing current information on connectivity and providing information to managers for maintaining or enhancing desert tortoise population connectivity as they consider future proposals for development and management actions. Maintaining an ecological network for the Mojave desert tortoise, with a system of core habitats (TCAs) connected by linkages, is necessary to support demographically viable populations and long-term gene flow within and between TCAs. There are four points for wildlife and land-management agencies to consider when making decisions that could affect connectivity of Mojave desert tortoise populations (for example, in updating actions in resource management plans or amendments that could help maintain or restore functional connectivity in light of the latest information): Management of all desert tortoise habitat for persistence and connectivity . Desert tortoise populations continue to decline within most TCAs, and it is unlikely that trends are better in populations outside protected areas. Fragmentation exacerbates negative population trends by breaking large continuous populations into smaller isolated populations. Connectivity within large populations can enhance resilience to localized disturbances due to rescue by neighboring individuals. In contrast, smaller fragmented populations are resistant to rescue by their isolation and thus could suffer irreversible declines to extirpation from a variety of threats and stochastic events. Enhanced threat reduction to reverse declines within TCAs and to maintain occupied habitat in the surrounding matrix would help reduce the variability in population growth rates and improve the resilience of protected populations even while implementing efforts to improve connectivity. Each TCA has unique strengths and weaknesses regarding its ability to support minimum sustainable populations based on areal extent and its ability to support population increases based on landscape connection with adjacent populations. Considering how proposed projects (inside or outside of TCAs) affect connectivity and the ability of TCAs to support at least 5,000 adult tortoises (the numerical goal for each TCA) could help managers to maintain the resilience of TCAs to population declines. The same project, in an alternative location, could have very different impacts on local and regional populations. For example, within the habitat matrix surrounding TCAs, narrowly delineated corridors may not allow for natural population dynamics if they do not accommodate overlapping home ranges along most of their widths so that tortoises reside, grow, find mates, and produce offspring that can replace older tortoises. In addition, most habitat outside TCAs may receive more surface disturbance than habitat within TCAs. Therefore, managing the entire remaining matrix of desert tortoise habitat for permeability may be better than delineating fixed corridors. These concepts apply, especially given uncertainty about long-term condition of habitat, within and outside of TCAs under a changing climate. Ultimately, questions such as “ What are the critical linkages that need to be protected ?” could be better framed as “ How can we manage the remaining habitat matrix in ways that sustain ecological processes and habitat suitability for special status species ?” Land-management decisions made in the context of the latter question may be more conducive to maintenance of a functional ecological network. Limitations on landscape-level disturbance across habitat managed for the desert tortoise Clearly delineating habitat linkages and differentiating them from non-delineated areas by the uses that are permitted or prohibited within them by specific management guidelines can help achieve functional connectivity. Such guidelines would be most effective if they considered and accounted for all surface disturbances (for example, temporary disturbances such as fiberoptic lines or off-highway vehicle routes, right-of-ways, utility-scale solar development, urbanization) to the extent possible. A weighted framework that varies with the permanence or severity of the disturbance, and can be additive to quantify cumulative effects, could be useful (Xiong, 2020). For example, minor roads can alter tortoise movements independently of other features (Peaden and others, 2017; Hromada and others, 2020), but if the isolated dirt road is accompanied by a powerline that encourages raven predation (Xiong, 2020), then the two features together may be additive. Ignoring minor or temporary disturbance on the landscape could result in a cumulatively large impact that is not explicitly acknowledged (Goble, 2009); therefore, understanding and quantifying all surface disturbance on a given landscape is prudent. In California, the Bureau of Land Management established 0.1–1.0 percent caps on new surface-disturbance for TCAs and mapped linkages that address the issues described in number 1 of this list. Nevada, Utah, and Arizona currently do not have surface-disturbance limits. Limits comparable to those in the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan (DRECP) would be 0.5 percent within TCAs and 1 percent within the linkages modeled by Averill-Murray and others (2013). Limits in some areas of California within the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan, such as Ivanpah Valley, are more restrictive, at 0.1 percent. Continuity across the state line in Nevada could be achieved with comparable limits in the adjacent portion of Ivanpah Valley, as well as the Greater Trout Canyon Translocation Area and the Stump Springs Regional Augmentation Site. These more restrictive limits would help protect remaining habitat in the major interstate connectivity pathway through Ivanpah Valley and focal areas of population augmentation that provide additional population connectivity along the western flank of the Spring Mountains. In a recent study that analyzed 13 years of desert tortoise monitoring data, nearly all desert tortoise observations were at sites in which 5 percent or less of the surrounding landscape within 1 kilometer was disturbed (Carter and others, 2020a). To help maintain tortoise habitability and permeability across all other non-conservation-designated tortoise habitat, all surface disturbance could be limited to less than 5-percent development per square kilometer because the 5-percent threshold for development is the point at which tortoise occupation drops precipitously (Carter and others, 2020a). However, although individual desert tortoises were observed at development levels up to 5 percent, we do not know the fitness or reproductive characteristics of these individuals. This level of development also may not allow for long-term persistence of healthy populations that are of adequate size needed for demographic or functional connectivity; therefore, a conservative interpretation suggests that, ideally, development could be lower. Lower development levels would be particularly useful in areas within the upper 5th percentile of connectivity values modeled by Gray and others (2019). Reducing ancillary threats in places where connectivity is restricted to narrow strips of habitat, for example, narrow mountain passes or vegetated strips between solar development, could enhance the functionality of these vulnerable linkages. In such areas, maintaining multiple, redundant linkages could further enhance overall connectivity. Minimization of mortality from roads and maximization of passage under roads . Roads pose a significant threat to the long-term persistence of local tortoise populations, and roads of high traffic volume lead to severe population declines, which ultimately fragments populations farther away from the roads. Three points (a.–c.) pertain to reducing direct mortality of tortoises on the many paved roads that cross desert tortoise habitat and to maintaining a minimal level of permeability across these roads: Tortoise-exclusion fencing tied into culverts, underpasses, overpasses, or other passages below roads in desert tortoise habitat, would limit vehicular mortality of tortoises and provide opportunities for movement across the roads. Installation of shade structures on the habitat side of fences installed in areas with narrow population-depletion zones would limit overheating of tortoises that may pace the fence. Passages below highways could be maintained or retrofitted to ensure safe tortoise access, for example, by filling eroded drop-offs or modifying erosion-control features such as rip-rap to make them safer and more passable for tortoises. Wildlife management agencies could work with transportation departments to develop construction standards that are consistent with hydrologic/erosion management goals, while also incorporating a design and materials consistent with tortoise survival and passage and make the standards widely available. The process would be most effective if the status of passages was regularly monitored and built into management plans. Healthy tortoise populations along fenced highways could be supported by ensuring that land inside tortoise-exclusion fences is not so degraded that it leads to degradation of tortoise habitat outside the exclusion areas. For example, severe invasive plant infestations inside a highway exclusion could cause an increase of invasive plants outside the exclusion area and degrade habitat; therefore, invasive plants inside road rights of way could be mown or treated with herbicide to limit their spread into adjacent tortoise habitat and minimize the risk of these plants carrying wildfires into adjacent habitat. Adaptation of management based on new information . Future research will continue to build upon and refine models related to desert tortoise population connectivity and develop new ones. New models could consider landscape levels of development and be constructed such that they share common foundations to support future synthesis efforts. If model development was undertaken in partnership with entities that are responsible for management of desert tortoise habitat, it would facilitate incorporation of current and future modeling results into their land management decisions. There are specific topics that may be clarified with further evaluation: The effects of climate change on desert tortoise habitat, distribution, and population connectivity; The effects of large-scale fires, especially within repeatedly burned habitat, on desert tortoise distribution and population connectivity; The ability of solar energy facilities or similar developments to support tortoise movement and presence by leaving washes intact; leaving native vegetation intact whenever possible, or if not possible, mowing the site, allowing vegetation to re-sprout, and managing weeds; and allowing tortoises to occupy the sites; and The design and frequency of underpasses necessary to maintain functional demographic and genetic connectivity across linear features, like highways.

Arizona, California, Nevada↗

USGS2022

Use case development for earth monitoring, analysis, and prediction (EarthMAP)—A road map for future integrated predictive science at the U.S. Geological Survey

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 21st-century science strategy 2020–30 promotes a bureau-wide strategy to develop and deliver an integrated, predictive science capability that works at the scales and timelines needed to inform societally relevant resource management and protection and public safety and environmental health decisions (U.S. Geological Survey, 2021). This is the overarching goal of the USGS Earth Monitoring, Analysis, and Prediction (EarthMAP) vision, which consists of three components: (1) integrated data and information, (2) integrated predictive science, and (3) actionable information—all designed and delivered to respond to user needs. To launch this vision and help shape the design and implementation of integrated predictive science, the USGS Regional Offices each developed a set of use cases (hereafter Use Cases)—short descriptions of potential science applications that could clearly address high priority decision-making needs of our stakeholders and that align with an integrated science focus. Use Cases are not actionable science planning documents, nor stand-alone scholarly works, but should be considered as innovative, next-generation science ideas that can be considered as potential components of science plans still under development. The goal of Use Case development was to (1) identify and characterize existing USGS scientific capacities and expertise that can support science goals and products, (2) identify opportunities to leverage current capacities for next-generation science, and (3) foster engagement across the entire Bureau to further refine the USGS strategy for EarthMAP and integrated predictive science. The Use Case development effort documented in this report was coordinated by the Use Case Development Team (UCDT), consisting of representatives from each region. The UCDT undertook five tasks: (1) develop a unified approach to engage bureau scientists consistently across all regions in aspirational thinking about what can be accomplished; (2) work with the regions and their Science Centers to generate an initial set of Use Cases, authored directly by scientists; (3) characterize, summarize, and document the initial set of Use Case submissions from authors to illuminate bureau-level demand for integrated science; (4) compare existing and needed capacities from the Use Case descriptions with preliminary results of the EarthMAP Capacity Assessment (Keisman and others, 2021); and (5) describe lessons learned from the Use Case development process and provide recommendations to inform future efforts to generate integrated science activities. This report outlines the approach the UCDT developed to solicit Use Cases from the regions and summarizes the high-level qualitative findings from this first-round effort. The UCDT received 36 Use Cases from the regions and identified potential points of convergence and commonalities considered useful in making connections among the participating scientists. The Southwest (SW) Region and the Rocky Mountain (RM) Region asked scientists to give special consideration to Use Cases with applicability to the Colorado River Basin, and seven of the Use Cases specifically named that geographic area as a focus. Coastal hazards and coastal resilience were identified in Use Cases from the Alaska (AK), Northeast (NE), and Southeast (SE) Regions. Aspects of wildfire and post-wildfire response were part of Uses Cases from AK, RM, and SW Regions. The greatest convergence of Use Case themes was related to conservation of public lands and waters, which is a powerful linkage lending strength to future collaborative efforts. The most common type of stakeholder decisions that would be informed by the Use Case science applications were related to adaptation, mitigation, and response (for example, how to increase the resilience of coastal communities to climate-related stressors and how to prevent or respond to harmful algal blooms). Other common types of decisions included water and land management decisions (including operational water management decisions such as reservoir operations and land use planning in the sagebrush biome), decisions about how to manage and conserve habitats and species, and risk management decisions (such as managing the post-wildfire flood risks). These decision types are not exclusive because many Use Cases cross categories. Use Case authors identified existing and needed science and technology capabilities required for Use Case implementation, which were then aligned to capabilities assessed in the EarthMAP Capacity Assessment (Keisman and others, 2021). Strong alignment was found for data and information integration approaches, modeling and prediction approaches, and capabilities related to delivery of actionable information. A majority of Use Cases indicated insufficient current capacity for needed data collection methods, data integration, and modeling and prediction approaches, whereas only 25 percent indicated insufficient capacity for actionable information delivery. Overall, many Use Case capacity demand gaps could potentially be met by existing bureau-wide capacity. In addition, nearly half of the Use Cases could potentially be implemented within 3 years if funding, capabilities, and personnel impediments were removed and science priorities were realigned. Several challenges emerged during the Use Case development process. The first challenge was developing an approach that was flexible enough to accommodate regional differences in planning and implementation, while also ensuring enough guidance to promote meaningful summary analyses. The UCDT encountered a strong demand for continuous communication and education to improve overall understanding of the integrated predictive science strategy. Another challenge was managing expectations about EarthMAP activities as a design effort that was not aligned to an immediate funding opportunity. Connecting the Use Cases to stakeholder needs without the opportunity for direct stakeholder engagement was also challenging. The last notable challenge was in obtaining consistent interpretation and characterization of the qualitative data housed in the narrative descriptions of Use Cases, written in different styles. Overall, the 36 Use Cases can serve as components of a road map for advancing integrated monitoring and predictive science throughout the USGS by revealing opportunities to (1) encourage cross-region initiatives that address shared interests in common themes by integrating similar Use Cases and through direct involvement of stakeholders in identifying needs and designing effective responses, (2) leverage the Use Cases to target investments that are aligned with the Bureau and Department of the Interior (DOI) priorities, (3) connect Use Cases and the results of the companion EarthMAP Capacity Assessment (Keisman and others, 2021) to identify potential priorities for capacity building investments, and (4) raise awareness of common integrated and interdisciplinary science interests within and across the regions through Use Case and Capacity Assessment summary outreach activities.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2022

National strategy for landslide loss reduction

Executive Summary Landslide hazards are present in all 50 States and most U.S. territories, and they affect lives, property, infrastructure, and the environment. Landslides are the downslope movement of earth materials under the force of gravity. They can occur without any obvious trigger. Widespread or severe landslide events are often driven by such hazards as hurricanes, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, heavy rain events, flooding, and wildfires. Landslides can also cause their own cascading consequences, such as the spread of hazardous materials or the creation of devastating local tsunamis. This strategy document describes goals and strategic actions of a comprehensive strategy to meet key challenges to reducing the Nation’s risk from landslide hazards equitably and effectively. The document follows the direction of the National Landslide Preparedness Act (Public Law 116–323) by presenting a strategy for addressing landslide hazards, including risk reduction and response. The act directs the Department of the Interior to establish a program that will work with State, Tribal, and local governments as well as with academia, the private sector, community-based groups, and nonprofit organizations to identify landslide hazards and risk and improve communication, coordination, and emergency preparedness, with the objective of reducing landslide losses. As the only Federal program dedicated to landslide hazard science, the U.S. Geological Survey’s Landslide Hazards Program will lead and coordinate many of the efforts described in this strategy document. Landslide hazard risk reduction must be undertaken collectively and collaboratively across the Federal Government. This strategy document will provide a framework for the creation of an interagency management plan that describes the programs, projects, workforce, and budgets required to carry out the national strategy. The strategy outlined in this document presents a vision of how to equitably produce, communicate, and apply landslide data and science to support a broad range of land management, infrastructure, planning, and emergency response decisions. These decisions are made by a variety of actors, including private and nonprofit landholders; State, Tribal, territorial, city, and county planners; emergency managers; engineers; infrastructure managers; Federal agencies and their partners; and community leaders and individuals. Supporting those decisions and reducing the Nation’s vulnerability to landslides requires overcoming three main challenges: (1) gaps in basic information needed to describe and understand landslide occurrence and societal risk, (2) difficulty in accurately mapping and forecasting landslide hazards, and (3) communication and coordination among the many jurisdictions and sectors that have responsibility for and interest in reducing landslide losses. To address those challenges, this strategy document puts forward a series of strategic actions to achieve four goals: Assess: Decision makers have access to detailed, nationwide, and contextually relevant information on landslide hazard and risk. Coordinate: Landslide hazard mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery efforts are coordinated across Federal, State, Tribal, territorial, and local levels. Plan: Communities and land managers are prepared and able to plan for landslide hazards. Respond: Landslide surveillance, warnings, and responses to events are effective, efficient, equitable, cooperative, and data-driven to protect lives, property, infrastructure, and the environment. These strategic actions focus on expanding the knowledge of societal risk posed by landslides as well as better understanding of where, when, and why they occur. They focus on applying that knowledge to support landslide risk reduction efforts and decisions, including the establishment of new advisory, coordination, and working groups focused on landslide hazard and risk. They take into account that supporting landslide loss reduction decisions also requires new guidance, tools, and training codeveloped with the entities, organizations, and individuals faced with making those decisions. Finally, they address actions needed to support and expand landslide warning information and improve the technical response to landslide emergencies.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2025

Managing for tomorrow—A climate adaptation decision framework

Climate change presents new and compounding challenges to natural resource management. With changing climate patterns, managers are confronted with difficult decisions on how to minimize climate effects on habitats, infrastructure, and wildlife populations. To support climate adaptation decision making, we first conceptualized an approach that integrates the principles of the resist–accept–direct framework, climate scenario planning, and decision analysis into a general framework to support adaptation planning. This framework was implemented and refined by working with three National Wildlife Refuge System refuges within the Midwest Region. The objectives of this report are to describe the climate adaptation decision framework and provide guidance for how to apply the framework to support transparent, consistent, and decision-focused adaptation planning. We include a workbook to support the application of each step of the framework as well as lessons learned from our experiences developing the framework. The climate adaptation decision framework has wide applicability to aid adaptation planning within natural resource management and underscores the important role of engaging interest groups in climate adaptation decisions.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Miss↗

USGS1937

Ground water in Creek County, Oklahoma

Creek County has been designated as a problem area by the Land Use Planning Section of the Resettlement Administration. Some of the earliest oil fields to brought into production were situated in and near this county, and new fields have been opened from time to time during the ensuing years. The production of the newer fields, however, has not kept pace with the exhaustion of the older fields, and the county now presents an excellent picture of the problems involved in adjusting a population to lands that are nearly depleted of their mineral wealth. Values of land have been greatly depressed; tax collection is far in arrears; tenancy is widespread; and in addition more people will apparently be forced to depend on the income from agriculture than the land seems capable of supporting. The county as a whole is at best indifferently suitable for general farming. The Land Use planning Section proposes to study the present and seemingly immanent maladjustments of population to the resources of the land, and make recommendations for their correction. The writer was detailed to the Land Use Planning Section of Region VIII for the purposes of making studies of ground water problems in the region. In Creek County two investigations were made. In September, 1936, the writer spent about ten days investigating the availability of ground water for the irrigation of garden crops during drouths. If it proved feasible to do this generally throughout the county, the Land Use Planning Section might be able to encourage this practice. The second investigation made by the writer was in regard to the extent to which ground water supplies have been damaged by oil well brines. He was in county for four days late in January 1937, and again in March, 1937. During part of the second field trip he was accompanied by R.M. Dixon, sanitary engineer of the Water Utilization Unit of the Resettlement Administration. (available as photostat copy only)

Open-File Report↗

USGS1981

North Atlantic summary report: Outer Continental Shelf oil and gas activities in the North Atlantic and their onshore impacts: A summary report, July 1981

The leasing process for oil and gas exploration on the North Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) began in June 1975. The first lease sale in the region (Lease Sale 42) was scheduled for January 31, 1978, by the Department of the Interior. However, the sale was delayed for 23 months by litigation before it was finally held on December 18, 1979. Of the 116 tracts offered, 63 tracts comprising 358,671 acres were leased as a result of the sale. Eight exploration plans have been submitted by five oil companies since Lease Sale 42. The plans call for exploratory drilling on 11 separate tracts in the lease sale area. The plans and the required Federal drilling permits for two blocks, Exxon's block 133 and Shell's block 410, have been approved. Exploratory drilling on these two blocks began on July 24, 1981. The review process to approve the other plans and the required OCS drilling permits is in progress. Onshore impacts resulting from OCS exploration in the North Atlantic are expected to be minimal. The same support base at Davisville, Rhode Island, used for drilling operations in the Mid-Atlantic Region is servicing North Atlantic activities. This facility has more than enough capacity and berthing space to service the level of activity expected during exploratory drilling. Moreover, support requirements for the North Atlantic are expected to supplement the declining level of support activity that has occurred for the Mid-Atlantic Region.

North Atlantic Region↗

USGS1984

Bedrock aquifers in the Denver basin, Colorado; a quantitative water-resources appraisal

The Denver metropolitan area is experiencing a rapid population growth that is requiring increasing supplies of potable water to be pumped from bedrock aquifers in order to meet demand. In an effort to determine the ability of the aquifers to continue to meet this demand, the Colorado Department of Natural Resources, the Denver Board of Water Commissioners, and Adams, Arapahoe, Douglas, Elbert and El Paso Counties joined with the U.S. Geological Survey in undertaking a hydrologic evaluation of the ground-water resources of the basin. This involved mapping of aquifer extent, thickness, structure, hydraulic characteristics, and water-level and water-quality conditions. This enabled ground-water modeling techniques to be used to simulate aquifer response to various pumpage estimates and ground-water development plans. The Laramie-Fox Hills aquifer (the deepest aquifer) underlies the 6,700-square-mile study area and is overlain by the more permeable Arapahoe aquifer, the Denver aquifer, and the Dawson aquifer, which crops out in the southern part of the study area. It is estimated that 260x10 6 acre-feet of recoverable ground water are in storage in these four bedrock aquifers. However, less than 0.1 percent of this volume of water is stored under confined conditions. The larger volume of water stored under unconfined conditions will be available for use only when the water levels in the confined aquifers decline below the top of the individual aquifer, allowing water-table conditions to develop. Annual precipitation on the Denver basin supplies an average of 6,900 cubic feet per second of water to the area; about 55 cubic feet per second of this recharges the bedrock aquifers, principally through the Dawson Arkose. The direction of ground-water movement is generally from ground-water divides in the southern part of the area northward toward the margins of the aquifers. Pumpage has ranged from about 5 cubic feet per second in 1884 to about 41 cubic feet per second in 1978. Pumpage exceeds recharge in the metropolitan area and has caused water-level declines (1958-78) to exceed 200 feet in a 135-square-mile area of the Arapahoe aquifer southeast of Denver. A quasi-three-dimensional finite-difference model of the aquifer system was constructed and calibrated under steady-state and transient-state conditions. Steady-state calibration indicated that lateral hydraulic conductivity within the aquifers is about 100,000 times larger than the vertical hydraulic conductivity between the aquifers. Transient-state calibration indicated that between 1958 and 1978, 374,000 acre-feet of water was pumped from the aquifers, producing a 90,000-acre-foot net decrease in the volume of water in storage in the aquifers. During this time, pumpage also changed the rates of interaquifer flow, induced additional recharge, and caused capture of natural discharge. Three 1979-2050 pumpage estimates were made for use in simulating the effects of various ground-water development plans. Simulations using each of these pumpage estimates indicate that by the year 2050 large water-level declines could occur, particularly in the deeper aquifers. Maximum water-level declines of 410, 1,700, and 1,830 feet were produced using the small, medium, and large pumping rates. Four plans for supplementing the Denver water supply include pumping a satellite well field, pumping a municipal well field, pumping to irrigate parks, and injecting water during periods of low demand for later use during periods of peak demand. Model simulation of these plans indicates that the satellite well field will yield twice as much water as the municipal well field, but will produce larger and more widespread water-level declines in the four aquifers. The municipal well field would not significantly affect water levels in the Dawson aquifer. Pumping the Arapahoe aquifer to supply irrigation water to selected parks was shown to produce only small water-level declines in the aquifer. Results of simulating injection-pumpage well fields at two locations indicate that simulated injection rates could range from 1.7 to 10 cubic feet per second, depending on the choice of site. The volume of water that could be stored in the bedrock aquifer is, thus, sensitive to the hydrologic characteristics of the chosen site. More study is needed to evaluate water-chemistry compatibility of native and injected water.

Colorado↗

USGS1995

Simulation of stage and the the hydrologic budget of Devils Lake, Sauk County, Wisconsin

Water clarity of Devils Lake, in the Driftless Area of southwestern Wisconsin, has been decreasing because of blue-green algal blooms. An understanding of the hydrology of Devils Lake is needed to develop a mitigation plan to reduce phosphorus input. A model was developed to test the current understanding of the hydrology of the lake including stage and hydrologic budget and to estimate the effects of proposed mitigation plans on lake stage. Daily lake stage was simulated in the model by summing estimates of hydrologic-budget components. The Devils Lake hydrologic-budget components are precipitation on the lake surface, evaporation from the lake surface, runoff (consisting of overland flow to the lake and an intermittent stream flowing into the lake), and ground-water flow into and out of the lake. The model was calibrated to measured lake stage for the period 1980-92. Simulated stage compares reasonably well with historical stage data for Devils Lake. The root mean square of the differences of simulated and measured daily lake stages for the period 1980-92 is 0.83 foot. Simulated lake stage is very sensitive to small changes in runoff and evaporation coefficients, and ground-waterflow rates used in the model. The average model-calculated annual amounts of each hydrologic-budget component for the 1980-92 simulation period, in order of increasing volume, are evaporation (791 acre-feet), precipitation (973 acre-feet), runoff (1,107 acre-feet), and net ground-water flow, which is out of the lake (1,323 acre-feet). Three mitigation plans were simulated. Mitigation plan 3, which includes the addition of water from a basin adjacent to the northeastern side of the Devils Lake Basin, allows for withdrawals of hypolimnetic water and maintaining lake stage closer to optimal levels than would result without mitigation.

Wisconsin↗

USGS1999

Geologic datasets for weights of evidence analysis in northeast Washington: 3. Minerals-related permits on national forests, 1967 to 1998

Permits to explore for and (or) develop mineral resources on forest land can be used to indicate locations and types of mineral-related activities on national forests. Permits for these activities require filing at the Forest Service a Notice of Intention (Notice) to conduct mineral exploration activities and (or) a Plan of Operation (Plan). A Plan of Operation is required is significant activities are anticipated. This compilation of Notices and Plans for the Colville, Kaniksu, Okanogan, and Wenatchee National Forests between 1967 and 1998 is intended for use in combination with geologic and economic information to predict future mineral-related activities in the region.

Washington↗

USGS1999

Geologic datasets for weights-of-evidence analysis in northeast Washington: 3. Minerals-related permits on national forests, 1967-1998

Washington↗

USGS1978

Summary appraisals of the nation's ground-water resources – Missouri basin region

The Missouri Basin Region lies in the north-central part of the United States and southern Canada. It includes parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan in Canada; parts of Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Colorado, Kansas, and Missouri, and all of Nebraska in the United States. The region includes about one-sixth of the contiguous United States and requires large water supplies for irrigation, industrial, public, and rural uses. Climate ranges from semiarid to subhumid. Normal annual precipitation increases generally eastward in the downstream direction, but precipitation is not a dependable source of supply. The Missouri River and its tributaries furnish water to many users, but surface water is often inadequate to meet large demands. Numerous surface reservoirs help to regulate streamflow and provide storage, but they also allow an increase in evapotranspiration, which in some areas exceeds normal precipitation. Ground water occurs in aquifers classified as alluvial deposits of sand and gravel, glacial deposits, dune-sand deposits, basin-fill deposits of sand and gravel, sandstone, siltstone, fractured sandy clay, limestone, and dolomite. Ground water can be developed and managed in an orderly manner provided adequate geologic and hydrologic data are available to determine aquifer characteristics and response to pumping and other hydraulic stresses. These data and determinations are essential to design, testing, and implementation of water management plans. Unconsolidated and semiconsolidated aquifers include valley-fill alluvium, areally extensive alluvium, glacial deposits, and basin-fill deposits. The aquifers normally consist of alluvial sand and gravel that contain unconfined ground water that lies near the land surface. Many wells completed in the alluvial aquifers have high yields of good-quality water because most alluvial aquifers are highly transmissive and hydraulically connected to streams. Aquifers in glacial deposits may be difficult to locate and in some areas contain saline water; nevertheless, these aquifers are sources of water supply for many users. Basin-fill aquifers are as much as several thousand feet thick, and many contain large ground-water supplies. Ground-water mining has occurred in semiconsolidated aquifers because of withdrawals from wells. Unconsolidated and semiconsolidated aquifers have potential for conjunctive use with surface water, recycling to reuse available supplies, artificial recharge, and salvage of evapotranspired water. Sandstone aquifers lie near the land surface and in structural basins. Interbasin movement of ground water occurs in the Virgelle (Milk River aquifer), Fox Hills-basal Hell Creek, and Dakota aquifers. Sandstone aquifers are less transmissive than unconsolidated and semiconsolidated aquifers in general. Confined sandstone aquifers are common, and flowing wells are obtained in many areas. However, flowing wells may cause large declines in water levels if uncontrolled. Water quality is variable in sandstone aquifers but is adequate for most needs. Sandstone aquifers have potential for artificial recharge, induced interaquifer leakage, conjunctive use with surface water, and mining of ground water. Limestone and dolomite aquifers are extensive in the region, but in some areas they lie deep below the land surface. The occurrence of ground water in small pores, fractures, or large caverns causes yields from wells to range widely. Large flows through cavern systems in the aquifers are indicated by large springs in some areas. Water quality is extremely variable and must be considered in any water-development plan. Limestone and dolomite aquifers have potential for development of large water supplies in some areas. The development may be aided by induced recharge and interaquifer leakage. Saline ground water occurs throughout the Missouri Basin Region. Dissolved-solids concentration as much as 30,000 milligrams per liter has been measured in aquifers in glacial deposits in Montana. Saline water is common in sandstone aquifers in Wyoming, North Dakota, and South Dakota; maximum reported concentration is 280,000 milligrams per liter in water from the Tensleep Sandstone in Wyoming. Limestone contains saline water in many areas; maximum dissolved-solids concentration is about 350,000 milligrams per liter for the Madison Group in the Williston Basin in North Dakota. Comprehensive water-management planning in the Missouri Basin Region will require periodic or continuing inventory of precipitation, streamflow, surface-water storage, and ground water. Water demands for irrigation, industrial, public supply, and rural use are increasing rapidly. Reliance on ground-water supplies is increasing even though in many areas the ground water is still mostly undeveloped. Optimal use of water supplies will require the establishment of realistic goals and carefully conceived water-management plans, each of which will necessarily be based on an adequate baseline of hydrologic data and knowledge of the highly variable hydrologic systems in the region.

Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Monta↗

USGS2004

Summary and Comparison of Multiphase Streambed Scour Analysis at Selected Bridge Sites in Alaska

The U.S. Geological Survey and the Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities undertook a cooperative multiphase study of streambed scour at selected bridges in Alaska beginning in 1994. Of the 325 bridges analyzed for susceptibility to scour in the preliminary phase, 54 bridges were selected for a more intensive analysis that included site investigations. Cross-section geometry and hydraulic properties for each site in this study were determined from field surveys and bridge plans. Water-surface profiles were calculated for the 100- and 500-year floods using the Hydrologic Engineering Center?s River Analysis System and scour depths were calculated using methods recommended by the Federal Highway Administration. Computed contraction-scour depths for the 100- and 500-year recurrence-interval discharges exceeded 5 feet at six bridges, and pier-scour depths exceeded 10 feet at 24 bridges. Complex pier-scour computations were made at 10 locations where the computed contraction-scour depths would expose pier footings. Pressure scour was evaluated at three bridges where the modeled flood water-surface elevations intersected the bridge structure. Site investigation at the 54 scour-critical bridges was used to evaluate the effectiveness of the preliminary scour analysis. Values for channel-flow angle of attack and approach-channel width were estimated from bridge survey plans for the preliminary study and were measured during a site investigation for this study. These two variables account for changes in scour depths between the preliminary analysis and subsequent reanalysis for most sites. Site investigation is needed for best estimates of scour at bridges with survey plans that indicate a channel-flow angle of attack and for locations where survey plans did not include sufficient channel geometry upstream of the bridge.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2005

Hydrogeologic setting and conceptual hydrologic model of the Spring Creek Basin, Centre County, Pennsylvania, June 2005

The Spring Creek Basin, Centre County, Pa., is experiencing some of the most rapid growth and development within the Commonwealth. This trend has resulted in land-use changes and increased water use, which will affect the quantity and quality of stormwater runoff, surface water, ground water, and aquatic resources within the basin. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the ClearWater Conservancy (CWC), Spring Creek Watershed Community (SCWC), and Spring Creek Watershed Commission (SCWCm), has developed a Watershed Plan (Plan) to assist decision makers in water-resources planning. One element of the Plan is to provide a summary of the basin characteristics and a conceptual model that incorporates the hydrogeologic characteristics of the basin. The report presents hydrogeologic data for the basin and presents a conceptual model that can be used as the basis for simulating surface-water and ground-water flow within the basin. Basin characteristics; sources of data referenced in this text; physical characteristics such as climate, physiography, topography, and land use; hydrogeologic characteristics; and water-quality characteristics are discussed. A conceptual model is a simplified description of the physical components and interaction of the surface- and ground-water systems. The purpose for constructing a conceptual model is to simplify the problem and to organize the available data so that the system can be analyzed accurately. Simplification is necessary, because a complete accounting of a system, such as Spring Creek, is not possible. The data and the conceptual model could be used in development of a fully coupled numerical model that dynamically links surface water, ground water, and land-use changes. The model could be used by decision makers to manage water resources within the basin and as a prototype that is transferable to other watersheds.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2012

Dam-breach analysis and flood-inundation mapping for Lakes Ellsworth and Lawtonka near Lawton, Oklahoma

Dams provide beneficial functions such as flood control, recreation, and reliable water supplies, but they also entail risk: dam breaches and resultant floods can cause substantial property damage and loss of life. The State of Oklahoma requires each owner of a high-hazard dam, which the Federal Emergency Management Agency defines as dams for which failure or misoperation probably will cause loss of human life, to develop an emergency action plan specific to that dam. Components of an emergency action plan are to simulate a flood resulting from a possible dam breach and map the resulting downstream flood-inundation areas. The resulting flood-inundation maps can provide valuable information to city officials, emergency managers, and local residents for planning the emergency response if a dam breach occurs. Accurate topographic data are vital for developing flood-inundation maps. This report presents results of a cooperative study by the city of Lawton, Oklahoma, and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to model dam-breach scenarios at Lakes Ellsworth and Lawtonka near Lawton and to map the potential flood-inundation areas of such dam breaches. To assist the city of Lawton with completion of the emergency action plans for Lakes Ellsworth and Lawtonka Dams, the USGS collected light detection and ranging (lidar) data that were used to develop a high-resolution digital elevation model and a 1-foot contour elevation map for the flood plains downstream from Lakes Ellsworth and Lawtonka. This digital elevation model and field measurements, streamflow-gaging station data (USGS streamflow-gaging station 07311000, East Cache Creek near Walters, Okla.), and hydraulic values were used as inputs for the dynamic (unsteady-flow) model, Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (HEC-RAS). The modeled flood elevations were exported to a geographic information system to produce flood-inundation maps. Water-surface profiles were developed for a 75-percent probable maximum flood scenario and a sunny-day dam-breach scenario, as well as for maximum flood-inundation elevations and flood-wave arrival times for selected bridge crossings. Some areas of concern near the city of Lawton, if a dam breach occurs at Lakes Ellsworth or Lawtonka, include water treatment plants, wastewater treatment plants, recreational areas, and community-services offices.

Oklahoma↗

USGS2015

Dam-breach analysis and flood-inundation mapping for selected dams in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, and near Atoka, Oklahoma

Dams provide beneficial functions such as flood control, recreation, and storage of water supplies, but they also entail risk; dam breaches and resultant floods can cause substantial property damage and loss of life. The State of Oklahoma requires each owner of a high-hazard dam, which the Federal Emergency Management Agency defines as dams for which failure or improper operation probably will cause loss of human life, to develop an emergency action plan specific to that dam. Components of an emergency action plan are to simulate a flood resulting from a possible dam breach and map the resulting downstream flood-inundation areas. The resulting flood-inundation maps can provide valuable information to city officials, emergency managers, and local residents for planning an emergency response if a dam breach occurs. This report presents results of a cooperative study by the U.S. Geological Survey and the City of Oklahoma City to model dam-breach scenarios at 11 dams controlled and operated by Oklahoma City, Okla., and to map the potential flood-inundation areas of such dam breaches. To assist the City of Oklahoma City with completion of the emergency action plans for the 11 dams, the U.S. Geological Survey used light detection and ranging (lidar) elevation data (2004), which produced a 2-foot contour elevation map for the flood plains around Oklahoma City. A 5-meter Digital Terrain Map was used to model the flood plain below Atoka Reservoir in southeastern Oklahoma. Digital-elevation models, field survey measurements, hydraulic data, and hydrologic data (U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations North Canadian River below Lake Overholser near Oklahoma City, Okla. [07241000], and North Canadian River at Britton Road at Oklahoma City, Okla. [07241520]), were used as inputs for the one-dimensional dynamic (unsteady-flow) models using Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System (HEC–RAS) software. The modeled flood elevations were exported to a geographic information system to produce flood-inundation maps. Water-surface profiles were developed for a 75-percent probable maximum flood dam-breach scenario and a sunny-day dam-breach scenario, as well as for maximum flood-inundation elevations and flood-wave arrival times at selected bridge crossings. Points of interest such as community-services offices, recreational areas, water-treatment plants, and wastewater-treatment plants were identified on the flood-inundation maps.

Oklahoma↗

USGS2013

Stochastic empirical loading and dilution model (SELDM) version 1.0.0

The Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model (SELDM) is designed to transform complex scientific data into meaningful information about the risk of adverse effects of runoff on receiving waters, the potential need for mitigation measures, and the potential effectiveness of such management measures for reducing these risks. The U.S. Geological Survey developed SELDM in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration to help develop planning-level estimates of event mean concentrations, flows, and loads in stormwater from a site of interest and from an upstream basin. Planning-level estimates are defined as the results of analyses used to evaluate alternative management measures; planning-level estimates are recognized to include substantial uncertainties (commonly orders of magnitude). SELDM uses information about a highway site, the associated receiving-water basin, precipitation events, stormflow, water quality, and the performance of mitigation measures to produce a stochastic population of runoff-quality variables. SELDM provides input statistics for precipitation, prestorm flow, runoff coefficients, and concentrations of selected water-quality constituents from National datasets. Input statistics may be selected on the basis of the latitude, longitude, and physical characteristics of the site of interest and the upstream basin. The user also may derive and input statistics for each variable that are specific to a given site of interest or a given area. SELDM is a stochastic model because it uses Monte Carlo methods to produce the random combinations of input variable values needed to generate the stochastic population of values for each component variable. SELDM calculates the dilution of runoff in the receiving waters and the resulting downstream event mean concentrations and annual average lake concentrations. Results are ranked, and plotting positions are calculated, to indicate the level of risk of adverse effects caused by runoff concentrations, flows, and loads on receiving waters by storm and by year. Unlike deterministic hydrologic models, SELDM is not calibrated by changing values of input variables to match a historical record of values. Instead, input values for SELDM are based on site characteristics and representative statistics for each hydrologic variable. Thus, SELDM is an empirical model based on data and statistics rather than theoretical physiochemical equations. SELDM is a lumped parameter model because the highway site, the upstream basin, and the lake basin each are represented as a single homogeneous unit. Each of these source areas is represented by average basin properties, and results from SELDM are calculated as point estimates for the site of interest. Use of the lumped parameter approach facilitates rapid specification of model parameters to develop planning-level estimates with available data. The approach allows for parsimony in the required inputs to and outputs from the model and flexibility in the use of the model. For example, SELDM can be used to model runoff from various land covers or land uses by using the highway-site definition as long as representative water quality and impervious-fraction data are available.

Techniques and Methods↗

USGS1981

Appraisal of Hydrologic Information Needed in Anticipation of Lignite Mining in Lauderdale County, Tennessee

Lignite in western Tennessee occurs as lenses or beds at various stratigraphic horizons in the Coastal Plain sediments of Late Cretaceous and Tertiary age. The occurrence of this lignite has been known for many decades, but not until the energy crisis was it considered an important energy resource. In recent years, several energy companies have conducted extensive exploration programs in western Tennessee, and tremendous reserves of lignite have been found. From available information, Lauderdale County was selected as one of the counties where strip-mining of lignite will most likely occur. Lignite in this county occurs in the Jackson and Cockfield Formations, undivided, of Tertiary age. The hydrology of the county is known only from regional studies and the collection of some site-specific data. Therefore, in anticipation of the future mining of lignite, a plan is needed for obtaining hydrologic and geologic information to adequately define the hydrologic system before mining begins and to monitor the effects of strip-mining once it is begun. For this planning effort, available hydrologic, geologic, land use, and associated data were located and compiled; a summary description of the surface and shallow subsurface hydrologic system was prepared: the need for additional baseline hydrologic information was outlined; and plans to monitor the effects of strip-mining were proposed. This planning approach, although limited to a county area, has transferability to other Coastal Plain areas under consideration for strip-mining of lignite.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS1986

Results of a preimpoundment water-quality study of Swatara Creek, Pennsylvania

The water quality of Swatara Creek prior to impoundment by the proposed Swatara Creek Reservoir in south-central Pennsylvania was studied from July 1981 through October 1982. The report, done in cooperation with the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Resources (PaDER), Bureau of State Parks, presents information on existing water-quality conditions. A discussion of possible water-quality conditions in and downstream from the planned impoundment is also included. Precipitation measured near the study area at Lebanon, Pennsylvania from October 1981 through September 1982 was 8 percent below normal. Streamflow for the same period at Swatara Creek at Harper Tavern just downstream from the study area was 15 percent below the average annual flow. Swatara Creek above Highway 895 has been degraded by acid mine drainage. The main inflow to the planned impoundment has 2.1 times the discharge of Lower Little Swatara Creek--a forested and agricultural basin that is also tributary to the proposed impoundment. During the 1982 water year, 17,400 tons of suspended sediment were transported from the study area. About 46 percent of the annual load was transported during 3 days of high flow. Inflows to the planned impoundment from both Lower Little Swatara Creek and Swatara Creek above Highway 895 were poorly buffered. Measured concentrations of alkalinity and acidity were usually less than 10 mg/L (milligrams per liter) and 5 mg/L as CaCO3, respectively. The inflows contain high concentrations of nutrients and metals that would probably stratify in a reservoir. Maximum concentrations of dissolved nitrate and total phosphorus were 2.6 mg/L and 0.31 mg/L, respectively. At Lower Little Swatara Creek; these concentrations are well above those needed for growth of algae. Maximum observed concentrations for total recoverable iron, aluminum, and manganese at Swatara Creek above Highway 895 at Pine Grove were 100,000 ug/L (micrograms per liter), 66,000 ug/L, and 2,300 ug/L, respectively. Large increases in metal concentrations along with simultaneous decreases in pH and increases in acidity confirm that mine drainage continues to degrade the water quality of Swatara Creek and may have a large impact on water quality of the planned impoundment. Iron, lead, copper, and zinc concentrations periodically exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) criteria for freshwater aquatic life. Concentrations of manganese and lead also exceeded the U.S. EPA criteria for domestic water supplies and human health, respectively. The water quality of the Swatara Creek Reservoir will depend on characteristics such as (1) the detention time of water in the lake, (2) the timing and extent of thermal and chemical stratification, (3) sedimentation, and (4) the chemical loading and concentrations in the lake. Each of these characteristics may depend in part, on streamflow. The impoundment will act as a sediment trap and thus reduce the concentrations of total phosphorus, iron, aluminum, lead, copper, and zinc immediately downstream from the impoundment. Large storm discharges and releases from the hypolimnion of the reservoir to attain the winter-pool level may contain low oxygen concentrations and elevated concentrations of iron, aluminum, lead, copper, and zinc. Unless conservation releases from the multi-level release gates are carefully controlled, low dissolved-oxygen levels and high metal concentrations may degrade the downstream water quality and be detrimental to the aquatic community.

Pennsylvania↗