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Regional chloride distribution in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system from Long Island, New York, to North Carolina

The aquifers of the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain are the principal source of water supply for the region’s nearly 20 million residents. Water quality and water levels in the aquifers, and maintenance of streamflow, are of concern because of the use of this natural resource for water supply and because of the possible effects of climate change and changes in land use on groundwater. The long-term sustainability of this natural resource is a concern at the local community scale, as well as at a regional scale, across state boundaries. In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began a regional assessment of the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifers. An important part of this assessment is a regional interpretation of the extent of saltwater and the proximity of saltwater to fresh-groundwater resources and includes samples and published interpretations of chloride concentrations newly available since the last regional chloride assessment in 1989. This updated assessment also includes consideration of chloride samples and refined interpretations that stem from the 1994 discovery of the buried 35 million year old Chesapeake Bay impact structure that has substantially altered the understanding of the hydrogeologic framework and saltwater distribution in eastern Virginia. In this study, the regional area of concern for the chloride samples and interpretations extends from the Fall Line in the west to the outer edge of the Continental Shelf in the east and from the eastern tip of Long Island in the north to about halfway down the North Carolina coast in the south. Discussions of chloride distribution are presented for each of the 10 regional aquifer layers of the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain, including the offshore extents. Maps of interpreted lines of equal concentration or isochlors were manually prepared for nine of the regional aquifers; a map was not prepared for the surficial regional aquifer. The isochlor interpretations include the offshore extent of the nine regional aquifers and are presented on a 1:2,000,000 scale base map. Vertically, the chloride samples and interpretations range from deepest (oldest) to shallowest (youngest)—Potomac-Patuxent, Potomac-Patapsco, Magothy, Matawan, Monmouth-Mount Laurel, Aquia, Piney Point, Lower Chesapeake, and Upper Chesapeake regional aquifers. The approach of this study maximizes the overall density of chloride information and data by assessing relevant published interpretations, all USGS chloride samples, and all relevant offshore samples in one comprehensive interpretation. Published isochlors, where they were interpreted by regional aquifer, were used as much as possible for this regional isochlor assessment. Publication dates for the isochlors used range from 1982 to 2015, and the scales for the isochlors range from local (county or municipality) to state (sub-regional) to regional. The USGS National Water Information System database provided well sample data for the parts of aquifers that are mainly beneath the land areas and yielded 37,517 water-quality records for 1903 through 2011. Published data reports from four phases of research-related offshore coring (1976, 1993, 1997, 2009) were the main source of water-quality data for the parts of aquifers from the shoreline to the outer edge of the Continental Shelf and yielded samples from multiple depths of each of 13 cores. This study also used interpretations and offshore core data from the last regional chloride assessment (1989) which, in addition to 7 offshore cores, included water-quality data from about 500 wells, and borehole geophysics interpretations from a subset of 11 wells. All published information and data that were used in this study were considered time independent and did not assess the published interpretations or data for temporal trends. The approach used here examined only published interpretations and available chloride data, and did not directly use supplemental techniques that can provide insight into the distribution of saltwater, such as geochemical characterization, borehole geophysical information, and geochronology. Isochlor maps for this study are limited to manual interpretations of the 250-milligram per liter (mg/L) and 10,000-mg/L boundaries developed for 9 of the 10 regional aquifers that constitute the regional hydrogeologic framework of the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain. For a given aquifer, the approach was to initially consider published isochlor interpretations, where available, then to modify the published interpretations, if necessary, to the extent indicated by the well and core samples. The final step was to interpolate isochlors to the full extent of each aquifer layer in areas with sufficient samples or cited interpretations, or to extrapolate isochlors in areas with no samples or where samples were sparse. The principal limitation of this study is that, because of its regional extent, data and information density can vary greatly, and thus confidence in interpretations can vary widely for onshore and offshore areas across the study area. In areas of sparse data, some samples of elevated chloride could be misinterpreted as being part of a regional elevated chloride trend, and in other cases, an elevated concentration could be misinterpreted as being of only local importance. The interpretive work of this study was applied to a 1:2,000,000 scale base map. Locations of isochlors, wells, cores, political boundaries, and shorelines are meant to be considered approximate. The isochlors presented in this study were manually interpreted for each aquifer unit as a conceptual representation of an equal concentration line approximately in the middle of an aquifer’s thickness. Differences in chloride concentration lines between the top and bottom of an aquifer could be substantial, especially for the thick parts of aquifers, but that information is not presented in this regional assessment. Although additional offshore chloride data are available compared to 27 years ago (1989), the offshore information remains sparse, resulting in less confidence in the offshore interpretations than in the onshore interpretations. Regionally, the 250- and 10,000-mg/L isochlors tend to map progressively eastward from the deepest to the shallowest aquifers across the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system but with some exceptions. The additional data, conceptual understanding, and interpretations in the vicinity of the buried Chesapeake Bay impact structure in eastern Virginia resulted in substantial refinement of isochlors in that area. Overall, the interpretations in this study are updates of the previous regional study from 1989 but do not comprise major differences in interpretation and do not indicate regional movement of the freshwater-saltwater interface since then.

Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, North Ca↗

Stratigraphy and geologic history of the Montana group and equivalent rocks, Montana, Wyoming, and North and South Dakota

During Late Cretaceous time a broad north-trending epicontinental sea covered much of the western interior of North America and extended from the Gulf of Mexico to the Arctic Ocean. The sea was bounded on the west by a narrow, unstable, and constantly rising cordillera which extended from Central America to Alaska and which separated the sea from Pacific oceanic waters. The east margin of the sea was bounded by the low-lying stable platform of the central part of the United States. Rocks of the type Montana Group in Montana and equivalent rocks in adjacent States, which consist of eastward-pointing wedges of shallow-water marine and nonmarine strata that enclose westward-pointing wedges of fine-grained marine strata, were deposited in and marginal to this sea. These rocks range in age from middle Santonian to early Maestrichtian and represent a time span of about 14 million years. Twenty-nine distinctive ammonite zones, each with a time span of about half a million years, characterize the marine strata. Persistent beds of bentonite in the transgressive part of the Claggett and Bearpaw Shales of Montana and equivalent rocks elsewhere represent periods of explosive volcanism and perhaps concurrent subsidence along the west shore in the vicinity of the Elkhorn Mountains and the Deer Creek volcanic fields in Montana. Seaward retreat of st randlines, marked by deposition of the Telegraph Creek, Eagle, Judith River, and Fox Hills Formations in Montana and the Mesaverde Formation in Wyoming, may be attributed to uplift in near-coastal areas and to an increase in volcaniclastic rocks delivered to the sea. Rates of transgression and regression determined for the Montana Group in central Montana reveal that the strandline movement was more rapid during times of transgression. The regression of the Telegraph Creek and Eagle strandlines averaged about 50 miles per million years compared with a rate of about 95 miles per million years for the advance of the strand-line during Claggett time. The Judith River regression averaged about 60 miles per million years compared with movement of the strandline during the Bearpaw advance of about 70 miles per million years. The final retreat of marine waters from Montana, marked by the Fox Hills regression, was about 35 miles per million years at first, but near the end of the regression it accelerated to a rate of about 500 miles per million years. Rates of sedimentation range from less than 50 feet per million years in the eastern parts of North and South Dakota to at least 2,500 feet in western Wyoming. The low rates in the Dakotas correspond well with modern rates in the open ocean, and the rates in western Wyoming approach the rate of present coastal sedimentation.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming↗

Maps showing distribution of the Middle Cretaceous unconformity in the eastern Gulf of Mexico

Several theories on the origin of the Gulf of Mexico basin have been introduced by various researchers (Beloussov, 1970; Freeland and Dietz, 1971; Malfait and Dinkelman, 1972; Wood and Walper, 1974; Pilger, 1978; Buffler and others, 1980; Dickinson and Coney, 1980; Gose and others, 1980; Schmidt-Effing, 1980; Walper, 1980; Schlager and others, 1984). Although no final agreement has been reached, one prominent geologic feature is generally recognized. The early evolution of the basin ended with a major middle Cretaceous event resulting in a Gulf-wide unconformity referred to as the middle Cretaceous unconformity (MCU). This event represents a major shift from Early Cretaceous shallow-water bank sedimentation to Late Cretaceous deeper water carbonates (Worzel and others, 1973; Mitchum, 1978). Seismic data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Texas Marine Science Institute, Galveston Geophysics Laboratory (UTMSI-GGL) were used to map the MCU and its relationship to the deep stratigraphy and structure of the eastern Gulf basin east of long 90° W. In addition, data from the Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) in the southeastern Gulf and along the Campeche Escarpment and dredge samples collected by Schlager and others (1984) from the Florida Escarpment provide an age for the MCU (Cenomanian, 97 m. y. ) and a detailed lithological record. This report emphasizes the salt diapirs, pillows, and ridges in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico because of the profound effect these geologic structures have on the MCU. Salt locations are shown on the isopach of post-MCU sediments (fig. 1). A second map shows pre-middle Cretaceous outcrops terminated by the MCU along the Florida Escarpment, the southeastern Gulf, and the Campeche Escarpment (fig. 2).

Miscellaneous Field Studies Map↗

Recent volcanic history of Irazu volcano, Costa Rica: alternation and mixing of two magma batches, and pervasive mixing

40 Ar/ 39 Ar dates, field observations, and geochemical data are reported for Irazú volcano, Costa Rica. Volcanism dates back to at least 854 ka, but has been episodic with lava shield construction peaks at ca. 570 ka and 136–0 ka. The recent volcanic record on Irazú volcano comprises lava flows and a variety of Strombolian and phreatomagmatic deposits, with a long-term trend toward more hydrovolcanic deposits. Banded scorias and hybridized rocks reflect ubiquitous magma mixing and commingling. Two distinct magma batches have been identified. One magma type or batch, Haya, includes basalt with higher high field strength (HFS) and rare-earth element contents, suggesting a lower degree melt of a subduction modified mantle source. The second batch, Sapper, has greater enrichment of large ion lithophile elements (LILE) relative to HFS elements and rare-earth elements, suggesting a higher subduction signature. The recent volcanic history at Irazú records two and one half sequences of the following pattern: eruptions of the Haya batch; eruptions of the Sapper batch; and finally, an unusually clear unconformity, indicating a pause in eruptions. In the last two sequences, strongly hybridized magma erupted after the eruption of the Haya batch. The continuing presence of two distinct magma batches requires two active magma chambers. The common occurrence of hybrids is evidence for a small, nearer to the surface chamber for mixing the two batches. Estimated pre-eruptive temperatures based on two-pyroxene geothermometry range from ∼1000–1176 °C in basalts to 922 °C in hornblende andesites. Crystallization occurred mainly between 4.6 and 3 kb as measured by different geobarometers. Hybridized rocks show intermediate pressures and temperatures. High silica magma occurs in very small volumes as banded scorias but not as lava flows. Although eruptions at Irazú are not often very explosive, the pervasiveness of magma mixing presents the danger of larger, more explosive hybrid eruptions.

Irazu volcano↗

Geologic map of the Reyes Peak quadrangle, Ventura County, California

New 1:24,000-scale geologic mapping in the Cuyama 30' x 60' quadrangle, in support of the USGS Southern California Areal Mapping Project (SCAMP), is contributing to a more complete understanding of the stratigraphy, structure, and tectonic evolution of the complex junction area between the NW-trending Coast Ranges and EW-trending western Transverse Ranges. The 1:24,000-scale geologic map of the Reyes Peak quadrangle, located in the eastern part of the Cuyama map area, is the final of six contiguous 7 ?' quadrangle geologic maps compiled for a more detailed portrayal and reevaluation of geologic structures and rock units shown on previous maps of the region (Carman, 1964; Dibblee, 1972; Vedder and others, 1973). SCAMP digital geologic maps of the five other contiguous quadrangles have recently been published (Minor, 1999; Kellogg, 1999, 2003; Stone and Cossette, 2000; Kellogg and Miggins, 2002). This digital compilation presents a new geologic map database for the Reyes Peak 7?' quadrangle, which is located in southern California about 75 km northwest of Los Angeles. The map database is at 1:24,000-scale resolution.

Open-File Report↗

Multiscale guidance and tools for implementing a landscape approach to resource management in the Bureau of Land Management

The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) is implementing a landscape approach to resource management (hereafter, landscape approach) to more effectively work with partners and understand the effects of management decisions. A landscape approach is a set of concepts and principles used to guide resource management when multiple stakeholders are involved and goals include diverse and sustainable social, environmental, and economic outcomes. Core principles of a landscape approach include seeking meaningful participation of diverse stakeholders, considering diverse resource values in multifunctional landscapes, acknowledging the tradeoffs needed to meet diverse objectives in the context of sustainable resource management, and addressing the complexity of social and ecological processes by embracing interdisciplinarity and considering multiple and broad spatial and temporal perspectives. In chapter 1, we outline the overall goal of this report: to provide a conceptual foundation and framework for implementing a landscape approach to resource management in the BLM, focusing on the role of multiscale natural resource monitoring and assessment information. In chapter 2, we describe a landscape approach to resource management. BLM actions taken to implement a landscape approach include a major effort to compile broad-scale data on natural resource status and condition across much of the west. These broadscale data now provide a regional context for interpreting monitoring data collected at individual sites and informing decisions made for local projects. We also illustrate the utility of using multiscale data to understand potential effects of different resource management decisions, define relevant terms in landscape ecology, and identify spatial scales at which planning and management decisions may be evaluated. In chapter 3, we describe how the BLM Rapid Ecoregional Assessment program and Assessment, Inventory and Monitoring program may be integrated to provide the multiscale monitoring data needed to inform a landscape approach. We propose six core, broad-scale indicators of natural resource status and condition: the amount, spatial distribution, patch size and connectivity of ecosystems and wildlife habitats, and the pattern of existing development across the landscape. Additional supplemental broad-scale indicators may include fire return intervals, distributions of invasive species, and vulnerability of ecosystems to a changing climate. Landscape intactness is an additional derived indicator that is calculated from one or more of the core and supplemental broad-scale indicators. We then outline a process for assessing broad-scale indicators that is consistent with the overall BLM Assessment, Inventory, and Monitoring process, facilitating development of a multiscale natural resource monitoring program. Finally, we describe how broad-scale indicators of natural resource status and condition may guide field monitoring implemented through the BLM Assessment, Inventory and Monitoring program and help address complex management questions. In chapter 4, we consider the specific question of assessing the ecological integrity of rangelands across the western United States. We first define ecological integrity and its relation to land health. We then suggest that a combination of six local-scale indicators collected through field sampling at individual sites and five complementary broad-scale indicators together provide information on the composition, structure, and function of rangelands. The terrestrial monitoring indicators collected at the level of individual field sites are the amount of bare ground, vegetation composition (including invasive plants and plants of management concern), vegetation height, and the proportion of the soil surface in large intercanopy gaps. The broad-scale indicators are vegetation amount, distribution, patch size, connectivity, and productivity, along with the pattern of terrestrial development. Our suggested approach to quantifying ecological integrity focuses specifically on informing management of public lands for multiple resource uses, and illustrates how existing data collected through BLM monitoring and assessment programs may be used together to provide multiscale information on land condition across broad extents. In chapter 5, we develop a method for quantifying landscape intactness and apply this method to the western United States. Our multiscale index of landscape intactness is designed to be defensible, decomposable, and easy to understand. The foundation of the multiscale index of landscape intactness is the surface disturbance footprint of anthropogenic development, including energy and urban development, roads and railroads, cultivated croplands, surface mines and quarries, and energy transmission lines and pipelines. The index represents a gradient of anthropogenic influence as represented by development summarized at two spatial scales of analysis: 2.5 and 20 kilometers. We provide several example applications of the index, illustrating how these data may inform natural resource decisions at the spatial extent of BLM field and district offices, states, ecoregions, and the western United States. We find that 19.2 percent of lands managed by the BLM across the 17 western states of the conterminous United States had the highest landscape intactness. The largest intact areas occur on public lands at high elevations or in the Great Basin. We believe the frameworks, processes, and analyses provided in this report will improve the ability of the BLM to identify and evaluate potential direct and indirect effects of management actions (such as habitat restoration and renewable energy development), and assist the BLM in further implementing a landscape approach to resource management.

Open-File Report↗

Seismic source characterization in central and eastern United States

This report documents earthquake geology studies conducted in the central and eastern United States (CEUS) between 2018 and 2023. The overarching goal of the earthquake geology studies was to identify and characterize fault sources in the New Madrid seismic zone, the eastern Tennessee seismic zone, and the Charleston seismic zone. These studies primarily relied on the interpretation of high-resolution topography, morphotectonic analysis of 10-meter (m) digital elevation models, field reconnaissance, and integration with new and existing subsurface datasets. Results from each study are placed into a seismic hazard framework. The first two chapters focus on the New Madrid seismic zone, which is the most seismically active region in the CEUS, to better characterize the southern extent of the Reelfoot fault in the Obion River valley, and identify and characterize proposed faults along the margins of Crowleys Ridge in the center of the Mississippi River embayment. Crowleys Ridge is a ~320-kilometer (km) long landform that has been proposed to be formed by intermittent faulting or erosion from the Mississippi River. Legacy seismic reflection data documented Eocene, Mesozoic, and older strata offset by faults on the margins of the ridge (Van Arsdale et al., 1999). A morphotectonic analysis of the topography along Crowleys Ridge indicated southward increases in catchment hypsometric integral and slope. Neotectonic mapping on high-resolution lidar data revealed a series of subparallel linear fault and fold scarps along the margins of Crowleys Ridge. These scarps offset previously mapped fluvial and alluvial surfaces that were <56 thousand years ago (ka) (Rittenour et al., 2007). Integration of new seismic reflection and airborne electromagnetic data, legacy seismic data, with the landscape morphotectonic analysis and neotectonic mapping supports the interpretation that Crowleys Ridge is bound by faults that have been active in the late Quaternary but do not experience modern seismicity. By placing these newly characterized faults into the regional framework, the Crowleys Ridge faults can be interpreted as thrust faults associated with stepovers in the overall dextral fault system, similar to the Reelfoot fault. The results of these studies indicate that seismicity has migrated eastward during the late Quaternary, with the Reelfoot fault accommodating much of the modern-day strain. The Reelfoot fault ruptured in the 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquake sequence (Fuller, 1912) and has a record of past large earthquakes (Tuttle et al., 2002; 2019). Whereas the northern extent of the fault intersects the Mississippi River and has well-expressed surface deformation, questions remained regarding the southern limit of seismicity, deformation, and overall fault length. Analysis of <25 ka river terraces along the Obion River valley in western Tennessee revealed subtle fold scarps, with increased magnitudes of deformation on progressively older terraces, indicative of a longer record of fault movement than has been documented by paleoseismic and paleoliquefaction studies alone (e.g., Kelson et al., 1996; Gold et al., 2019; Tuttle et al., 2019). The third chapter integrates surface and subsurface data to assess the landscape record of surface deformation in the eastern Tennessee seismic zone (ETSZ), which is the second most seismically active region in the CEUS. Seismicity in the ETSZ is deep (5-26 km) and focused in the Proterozoic rock below the Paleozoic detachment. Although the region has experienced moderate (≤ Mw 4.8) seismicity in the instrumental record, the lack of a large historical earthquake and limited paleoseismic and paleoliquefaction evidence of prehistoric large ground shaking events have made seismic hazard characterization of the region challenging. Two models have emerged to predict the style and orientation of active surface deformation in the ETSZ. One suggests that surface rupturing earthquakes would exploit pre-existing faults along the regional structural grain (Cox et al., 2022). The second model advocates for primarily strike-slip motion on east-west or north-south faults, following analyses of recent seismicity (Chapman et al., 1997; Dunn and Chapman, 2006; Daniels and Peng, 2022) and the modern stress field (Levandowski et al., 2018). In our analysis, neotectonic mapping of high-resolution lidar data reveals a concentration of lineaments with east-west orientations, with some corresponding to previously mapped east-west faults that crosscut the northeast-southwest regional structural grain from the Paleozoic orogeny. A morphotectonic analysis of catchments and river segments within the same lithology indicates subtle differences that may be indicative of a longer-term tectonic uplift signal. These changes in morphotectonic metrics spatially correspond to newly mapped lineaments and previously mapped east-west trending faults. Within a regional framework, we suggest that diffuse surface deformation associated with deep seismicity is accommodated on a network on east-west faults. However, further work is needed to better understand the potential late Pleistocene fault activity of these lineaments, and we propose that the ETSZ is still best characterized as an area source in seismic hazard models. The final chapter presents preliminary work to create a geographic information system (GIS) database of recent studies analyzing surface and subsurface datasets and interpretations in the Charleston seismic zone, South Carolina. This GIS database will serve as a foundation for future work to analyze new quality level 1 (QL1; <0.5 m resolution) lidar data over the 1886 magnitude (M) 7 Charleston epicentral region to identify possible fault source sources responsible for the 1886 or other surface-rupturing events. This chapter briefly summarizes three new subsurface datasets, including seismic reflection (Pratt et al., 2022; Liberty, 2022) and seismicity data (Chapman et al., 2016), and one new surface dataset (Marple and Hurd, 2020), and their interpretations of potentially active lineaments and faults in the region.

central and eastern United States↗

Crustal structure of the coastal and marine San Francisco Bay region, California

As of the time of this writing, the San Francisco Bay region is home to about 6.8 million people, ranking fifth among population centers in the United States. Most of these people live on the coastal lands along San Francisco Bay, the Sacramento River delta, and the Pacific coast. The region straddles the tectonic boundary between the Pacific and North American Plates and is crossed by several strands of the San Andreas Fault system. These faults, which are stressed by about 4 cm of relative plate motion each year, pose an obvious seismic hazard. We have many ways to study earthquake faults. Where faults break the land surface, we may learn valuable information needed for hazard assessment, such as cumulative offset, slip rate, and earthquake history. However, many of the major faults in the region are partly submerged beneath San Francisco and Monterey Bays. Although this situation poses problems in gathering observational data for hazard assessment, bay-region waterways provide an opportunity to study faultzone structure by using marine subsurface-imaging techniques, which are easier and cheaper than equivalent studies on land. In 1993, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) launched a 5-year project aimed at unearthing the basic science of the submerged San Andreas strike-slip fault system in the San Francisco Bay region with its many interacting strands. Primary project goals were structural, such as to discover how the San Andreas and Hayward Faults are connected or related at depth, to learn how the complex of faults in the San Andreas stepover zone on the Golden Gate platform functions, and to locate previously unknown faults. This volume thus contains mostly structural information about the San Francisco Bay region, much of it gathered through exploratory geophysical experiments. The volume is organized “top down,” from studies in the shallowest crust to the base of the crust. The first three chapters are linked through their use of novel geophysical techniques to study earthquake effects, coseismic slip, and shallow stratigraphy. Kayen and others examine crustal structure at very high resolution and demonstrate the use of ground-penetrating-radar tomography to measure the liquefaction potential of coastal sedimentary deposits. McGann and others use microfossils from drill cores along the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge to determine a more detailed late Pleistocene stratigraphy of San Francisco Bay than was previously available. Geist and Zoback use the historical record of a small local tsunami generated by the great 1906 San Francisco earthquake to model the rupture process of that earthquake. The last four chapters are dedicated to studies of fault related structure of the seismogenic crust in and around the San Andreas Fault system in the San Francisco Bay region. Jachens and others compile an aeromagnetic anomaly map from new high-resolution flights across the bay region. Some of these anomalies mark the positions of offshore faults, and others are offset by faults, providing constraints on cumulative slip. Hart and others concisely summarize the marine seismic data recorded in and around San Francisco Bay, map the coverage, and provide archival information for those interested in acquiring data. The last two chapters present the results of the seismic data that have been analyzed. Bruns and others present their analysis of high-quality intermediate-resolution (~5-km penetration) seismic-reflection data gathered over the complex San Andreas-San Gregorio Fault junction. This junction, which is thought to be where the 1906 San Francisco earthquake originated (see Geist and Zoback, this volume), contains an apparent extensional right stepover in the San Andreas Fault. Finally, Parsons and others review and summarize the results of deep-crustal seismic-reflection experiments and local-earthquake tomographic studies, including previously unpublished data, and provide additional support and discussion for already-published studies. In summary, these studies were carried out in an environment where background information on faults in the San Francisco Bay region was sought. Much of the structural information presented here comes from experiments of a style unlikely to be conducted by the USGS in the near future. Together, the chapters in this volume provide a structural framework for a major part of a complex strike-slip fault system.

California↗

Determination of baseline periods of record for selected streamflow-gaging stations in and near Oklahoma for use in modeling applications

Use of historical streamflow data from a least-altered period of record can be used in calibration of various modeling applications that are used to characterize least-altered flow and predict the effects of proposed streamflow alteration. This information can be used to enhance water-resources planning. A baseline period of record was determined for selected streamflow-gaging stations that can be used as a calibration dataset for modeling applications. The baseline period of record was defined as a period that is least-altered by anthropogenic activity and has sufficient streamflow record length to represent extreme climate variability. Streamflow data from 171 stations in and near Oklahoma with a minimum of 10 complete water years of daily streamflow record through water year 2007 and drainage areas that were less than 2,500 square miles were considered for use in the baseline period analysis. The first step to determine the least-altered period of record was to evaluate station information by using previous publications, historical station record notes, and information gathered from oral and written communication with hydrographers familiar with selected stations. The second step was to indentify stations that had substantial effects from upstream regulation by evaluating the location and extent of dams in the drainage basin. The third step was (a) the analysis of annual hydrographs and included visual hydrograph analysis for selected stations with 20 or more years of streamflow record, (b) analysis of covariance of double-mass curves, and (c) Kendall's tau trend analysis to detect statistically significant trends in base flow, runoff, total flow, and base-flow index related to anthropogenic activity for selected stations with 15 or more years of streamflow record. A preliminary least-altered period of record for each stream was identified by removing the period of streamflow record when streams were substantially affected by anthropogenic activity. After streamflow record was removed from designation as a least-altered period, stations that did not have at least 10 years of remaining continuous streamflow record were considered to have an insufficient baseline period for modeling applications. An optimum minimum period of record was determined for each of the least-altered periods for each station to ensure a sufficient streamflow record length to provide a representative sample of annual climate variability. An optimum minimum period of 10 years or more was evaluated by analyzing the variability of annual precipitation for selected 5-, 10-, 15-, 25-, and 35-year periods for each of 20 climate divisions that contained stations used in the baseline period analysis. The distribution of annual precipitation was compared for each consecutive overlapping 5-year period to the period 1925-2007 by using a Wilcoxon rank-sum test. The least-altered period of record for stations was also compared to the period 1925-2007 by using a Wilcoxon rank-sum test. The results of this analysis were used to determine how many years of annual precipitation data were needed for the selected period to be statistically similar to the distribution of annual precipitation data for a long-term period, 1925-2007. Minimum optimum periods ranged from 10 to 35 years and varied by climate division. A final baseline period was determined for 111 stations that had a baseline period of at least 10 years of continuous streamflow record after the record-elimination process. A suitable baseline period of record for use in modeling applications could not be identified for 58 of the initial 171 stations because of substantial anthropogenic alteration of the stream or drainage basin and for 2 stations because the least-altered period of record was not representative of annual climate variability. The baseline period for each station was rated ?excellent?, ?good?, ?fair?, ?poor?, or ?no baseline period.? This rating was based on a qualitative evaluation of t

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Exploration of the 2016 Yellowstone River fish kill and proliferative kidney disease in wild fish populations

Proliferative kidney disease (PKD) is an emerging disease that recently resulted in a large mortality event of salmonids in the Yellowstone River (Montana, USA). Total PKD fish mortalities in the Yellowstone River were estimated in the tens of thousands, which resulted in a multi‐week river closure and an estimated economic loss of US$500,000. This event shocked scientists, managers, and the public, as this was the first occurrence of the disease in the Yellowstone River, the only reported occurrence of the disease in Montana in the past 25 yr, and arguably the largest wild PKD fish kill in the world. To understand why the Yellowstone River fish kill occurred, we used molecular and historical data to evaluate evidence for several hypotheses: Was the causative parasite Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae a novel invader, was the fish kill associated with a unique parasite strain, and/or was the outbreak caused by unprecedented environmental conditions? We found that T. bryosalmonae is widely distributed in Montana and have documented occurrence of this parasite in archived fish collected in the Yellowstone River prior to the fish kill. T. bryosalmonae had minimal phylogeographic population structure, as the DNA of parasites sampled from the Yellowstone River and distant water bodies were very similar. These results suggest that T. bryosalmonae could be endemic in Montana. Due to data limitations, we could not reject the hypothesis that the fish kill was caused by a novel and more virulent genetic strain of the parasite. Finally, we found that single‐year environmental conditions are insufficient to explain the cause of the 2016 Yellowstone River PKD outbreak. Other regional rivers where we documented T. bryosalmonae had similar or even more extreme conditions than the Yellowstone River and similar or more extreme conditions have occurred in the Yellowstone River in the recent past, yet mass PKD mortalities have not been documented in either instance. We conclude by placing these results and unresolved hypotheses into the broader context of international research on T. bryosalmonae and PKD, which strongly suggests that a better understanding of bryozoans, the primary host of T. bryosalmonae , is required for better ecosystem understanding.

Montana↗

Solving for source parameters using nested array data: A case study from the Canterbury, New Zealand earthquake sequence

The seismic spectrum can be constructed by assuming a Brune spectral model and estimating the parameters of seismic moment ( M 0 ), corner frequency ( f c ), and high-frequency site attenuation ( κ ). Using seismic data collected during the 2010–2011 Canterbury, New Zealand, earthquake sequence, we apply the non-linear least-squares Gauss–Newton method, a deterministic downhill optimization technique, to simultaneously determine the M 0 , f c , and κ for each event-station pair. We fit the Brune spectral acceleration model to Fourier-transformed S-wave records following application of path and site corrections to the data. For each event, we solve for a single M 0 and f c , while any remaining residual kappa, &#x03BA; r "> κ r κr , is allowed to differ per station record to reflect varying high-frequency falloff due to path and site attenuation. We use a parametric forward modeling method, calculating initial M 0 and f c values from the local GNS New Zealand catalog M w, GNS magnitudes and measuring an initial &#x03BA; r "> κ r κr using an automated high-frequency linear regression method. Final solutions for M 0 , f c , and &#x03BA; r "> κ r κr are iteratively computed through minimization of the residual function, and the Brune model stress drop is then calculated from the final, best-fit f c . We perform the spectral fitting routine on nested array seismic data that include the permanent GeoNet accelerometer network as well as a dense network of nearly 200 Quake Catcher Network (QCN) MEMs accelerometers, analyzing over 180 aftershocks M w,GNS ≥ 3.5 that occurred from 9 September 2010 to 31 July 2011. QCN stations were hosted by public volunteers and served to fill spatial gaps between existing GeoNet stations. Moment magnitudes determined using the spectral fitting procedure ( M w,SF ) range from 3.5 to 5.7 and agree well with M w,GNS , with a median difference of 0.09 and 0.17 for GeoNet and QCN records, respectively, and 0.11 when data from both networks are combined. The majority of events are calculated to have stress drops between 1.7 and 13 MPa (20th and 80th percentile, correspondingly) for the combined networks. The overall median stress drop for the combined networks is 3.2 MPa, which is similar to median stress drops previously reported for the Canterbury sequence. We do not observe a correlation between stress drop and depth for this region, nor a relationship between stress drop and magnitude over the catalog considered. Lateral spatial patterns in stress drop, such as a cluster of aftershocks near the eastern extent of the Greendale fault with higher stress drops and lower stress drops for aftershocks of the 2011 M w,GNS 6.2 Christchurch mainshock, are found to be in agreement with previous reports. As stress drop is arguably a method-dependent calculation and subject to high spatial variability, our results using the parametric Gauss–Newton algorithm strengthen conclusions that the Canterbury sequence has stress drops that are more similar to those found in intraplate regions, with overall higher stress drops that are typically observed in tectonically active areas.

Christchurch↗

Latency and geofence testing of wireless emergency alerts intended for the ShakeAlert® earthquake early warning system for the West Coast of the United States of America

ShakeAlert, the earthquake early warning (EEW) system for the West Coast of the United States, attempts to provides crucial warnings before strong shaking occurs. However, because the alerts are triggered only when an earthquake is already in progress, and the alert latencies and delivery times are platform dependent, the time between these warnings and the arrival of shaking is variable. The ShakeAlert system uses, among other public alerting platforms like a mobile phone operating system, smartphone apps, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency Integrated Public Alert & Warning System (IPAWS). IPAWS sends Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEAs) informing people via their smartphones and other mobile devices about various events, such as natural hazards, child abductions, or public health information about COVID-19. However, little is known about the IPAWS delivery latencies. Given that people may have only a few seconds of notice after they receive an alert to take a protective action before they feel earthquake shaking, quantifying latencies is critical to understanding whether the IPAWS system is useful for EEW. In this study, we developed new methods to test the IPAWS distribution system's performance, both with devices in a controlled environment and as well as with a 2019 community-based feedback form, in Oakland and San Diego County, California, respectively. The controlled environment test used mobile phones (including smart and non-smart phones) and associated devices to determine alert receipt times; the community research form had participants self-report their receipt times. By triangulating the data between the controlled test environment and the community research, we determined the latency statistics as well as whether the geofence (the geographic area where the alert was intended to be sent) held broadly. We found that the latencies were similar between the two tests despite the large differences in population sizes. WEA messages were received within a median time frame of 6–12 s, and the geofence held with only a few exceptions. We use this latency to assess how the system would have performed in two large earthquakes, the 1989 M6.9 Loma Prieta and 2019 M7.1 Ridgecrest earthquakes, which both occurred near our WEA test locations. Our analysis revealed that had IPAWS been available during those earthquakes, particularly Loma Prieta, it would have provided crucial seconds of notice that damaging shaking was imminent in some locations relatively far from the epicenter. Further, we find affordable non-smart phones can receive WEAs as fast as smartphones. Finally, our new method can be used for latency and geospatial testing going forward for IPAWS and other similar alerting systems.

California↗

Terrestrial Ecosystems - Land Surface Forms of the Conterminous United States

As part of an effort to map terrestrial ecosystems, the U.S. Geological Survey has generated land surface form classes to be used in creating maps depicting standardized, terrestrial ecosystem models for the conterminous United States, using an ecosystems classification developed by NatureServe . A biophysical stratification approach, developed for South America and now being implemented globally, was used to model the ecosystem distributions. Since land surface forms strongly influence the differentiation and distribution of terrestrial ecosystems, they are one of the key input layers in this biophysical stratification. After extensive investigation into various land surface form mapping methodologies, the decision was made to use the methodology developed by the Missouri Resource Assessment Partnership (MoRAP). MoRAP made modifications to Hammond's land surface form classification, which allowed the use of 30-meter source data and a 1-km2 window for analyzing the data cell and its surrounding cells (neighborhood analysis). While Hammond's methodology was based on three topographic variables, slope, local relief, and profile type, MoRAP's methodology uses only slope and local relief. Using the MoRAP method, slope is classified as gently sloping when more than 50 percent of the area in a 1-km2 neighborhood has slope less than 8 percent, otherwise the area is considered moderately sloping. Local relief, which is the difference between the maximum and minimum elevation in a neighborhood, is classified into five groups: 0-15 m, 16-30 m, 31-90 m, 91-150 m, and >150 m. The land surface form classes are derived by combining slope and local relief to create eight landform classes: flat plains (gently sloping and local relief =< 15 m), smooth plains (gently sloping and 15 m < local relief =< 30 m), irregular plains (gently sloping and 30 m < local relief =< 90 m), escarpments (gently sloping and local relief > 90 m), low hills (not gently sloping and local relief =< 30 m), hills (not gently sloping and 30 m < local relief =< 90 m), breaks/foothills (not gently sloping and 90 m < local relief =< 150 m), and low mountains (not gently sloping and local relief > 150 m). However, in the USGS application of the MoRAP methodology, an additional local relief group was used (> 400 m) to capture additional local topographic variation. As a result, low mountains were redefined as not gently sloping and 151 m < local relief < 400 m, and a new land surface form class, high mountains/deep canyons, was identified as not gently sloping and local relief > 400 m. The final application of the MoRAP methodology was implemented using the USGS 30-meter National Elevation Dataset and an existing USGS slope dataset that had been derived by calculating the slope from the NED in Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) coordinates in each UTM zone, and then combining all of the zones into a national dataset. This map shows a smoothed image of the nine land surface form classes based on MoRAP's methodology. Additional information about this map and any data developed for the ecosystems modeling of the conterminous United States is available online at http://rmgsc.cr.usgs.gov/ecosystems/.

Scientific Investigations Map↗

Estimating flood magnitude and frequency for unregulated streams in Wisconsin

Flood frequency characteristics and estimated flood discharges for the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities were computed at 299 streamgaged locations in Wisconsin. The State was divided into four flood frequency regions using a cluster analysis to produce regions which are homogeneous with respect to physical basin characteristics. Regression equations relating flood discharges to basin characteristics within each region were developed and can be used to estimate flood discharges at ungaged locations in Wisconsin. Basin characteristics included in the final regression equations include drainage area, saturated hydraulic conductivity, percent forest, percent herbaceous upland, percent open water, and the maximum 24-hour precipitation with a 10-year recurrence interval. The standard error of prediction for regression equations ranges between 40 and 71 percent, and the pseudo coefficient of determination ranges between 0.8 and 0.95. Nonmonotonic trends in the annual peak flow time series in the southwest part of the State are producing bias in some flood discharge estimates at streamgages with shorter (less than 20 years) periods of record. This bias increases the uncertainty in regression equations in this flood frequency region.

Wisconsin↗

Three-dimensional steady-state simulation of flow in the sand-and-gravel aquifer, southern Escambia County, Florida

The sand-and-gravel aquifer is the only freshwater aquifer in southern Escambia County, Florida and is the source of public water supply for the area, including the City of Pensacola. The aquifer was simulated by a two-layer, digital model to provide hydrologic information for water resource planning. The lower layer represents the main-producing zone; the upper layer represents all of the aquifer above the main-producing zone including an unconfined zone and discontinuous perched, confined , and confining zones. The model was designed for steady-state simulation and predicts the response of the aquifer (changes in water levels) to groundwater pumping where steady-state conditions have been reached. Input to the model includes matrices representing constant-head nodes, starting head, transmissivity of layer 1, leakance between layers 1 and 2, lateral hydraulic conductivity of layer 2, and altitude of the base layer 2. The sources of water to the model are from recharge by infiltrated precipitation (estimated from base runoff), inflow across boundaries, and induced recharge from river leakance in periods of prolonged groundwater pumping. Model output includes final head and drawdown for each layer and total values for discharge and recharge in the model area. The model was calibrated for 1972 pumping and tested by simulating pumpages during 1939-40, 1958, and 1977. Sensitivity analyses showed water levels in both layers were most sensitive to changes in the recharge matrix and least sensitive to river leakage. Suggestions for further development of the model include subdivision and expansion of the grid, assignment of storage coefficients for transient simulations, more intensive study of the stream-aquifer relations, and consideration of the effects of infiltration basins on recharge. (Author 's abstract)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Selected papers in the hydrologic sciences, 1985; May 1985

The University of Minnesota, the Minnesota Geological Survey, and the U.S. Geological Survey are studying the feasibility of storing water at a temperature of 150 degrees Celsius in the Franconia-Ironton-Galesville aquifer. The Aquifer Thermal-Energy Storage project has a doublet-well design with a well spacing of approximately 250 meters. One well will be used for cool-water supply, and, the other, for hot-water injection. The U.S. Geological Survey is constructing a model of ground-water flow and thermal-energy transport to aid in determining the efficiency of the Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage system. A preliminary model of radial flow and thermal-energy transport was constructed, based on hydraulic and thermal properties of the Franconia-Ironton-Galesville aquifer determined in previous studies. The model was used to investigate the sensitivity of model results to various hydraulic and thermal properties and to study the potential for buoyancy flow within the aquifer and the effect of various cyclic injection-withdrawal schemes on the relative thermal efficiency of the aquifer. Sensitivity analysis was performed assuming 8 days of injection of 150-degree-Celsius water at 18.9 liters per second, 8 days of storage, and 8 days of withdrawal of hot water at 18.9 liters per second. The analysis indicates that, for practical ranges of hydraulic and thermal properties, rock-heat capacity is the least important property and thermal dispersivity is the most important property used to compute temperature and aquifer thermal efficiency. The amount of buoyancy flow was examined for several values of hydraulic conductivity and ratios of horizontal to vertical hydraulic conductivities. For the assumed base values of hydraulic and thermal properties, buoyancy flow was negligible. The greatest simulated buoyancy flow resulted from simulations in which horizontal hydraulic conductivity was increased to 10 times the base value, and the vertical hydraulic conductivity was set equal to the horizontal hydraulic conductivity. The effects of various injection-withdrawal rates and durations on computed values of aquifer relative thermal efficiency and final well-bore temperature were studied for five 1-year hypothetical test cycles of injection and withdrawal. The least efficient scheme was 8 months injection of 150-degree-Celsius water and 4 months of withdrawal of hot water at 18.9 liters per second. The most efficient scheme was obtained with 6 months of injection of 150-degree-Celsius water at 18.9 liters per second and 6 months of withdrawal of hot water at 37.8 liters per second. The hypothetical simulations indicate that the subsequent calibrated model of the doublet-well system will be a valuable tool in determining the most efficient system operation.

Water Supply Paper↗

Baseline survey for rare plant species and native plant communities within the Kamehameha Schools 'Lupea Safe Harbor Planning Project Area, North Kona District, Island of Hawai'i

Kamehameha Schools, in conjunction with several federal, state, and private organizations, has proposed to conduct conservation management on approximately 5,340 ha (~13,200 acres) of land they own in the vicinity of Kīpukalupea in the North Kona District on the island of Hawai'i. The goal of this program is to restore and enhance the habitat to benefit native plant and animal populations that are currently, or were formerly, found in this site. The initial phase of this project has been focused on various activities including conducting baseline surveys for bird and plant species so Kamehameha Schools could develop a Safe Harbor Agreement (SHA) for the proposed project lands relative to the habitat management and species reintroduction efforts they would like to conduct in the Lupea Project area. This report summarizes methods that were used to collect field data on plant species and communities within the project area, and the results of that initial survey. The information was used to calculate baseline values for all listed threatened or endangered plant species found, or expected to be found, within the project area, and to design a monitoring program to assess changes in plant communities and rare plant species relative to management activities over the duration of the SHA. The Lupea Project area contains excellent examples of several high elevation native plant communities including montane dry forest and woodland, native subalpine shrubland, and native grassland. Between November 2003 and January 2004 we sampled plant communities and species along seven transects established through the project area. A total of 109 plant species were found during this survey, within the transect grid and in nearby areas. Forty-four of these plants are endemic species, 21 are indigenous species, 43 are introduced, and one species is believed to have been introduced to Hawai&bdquo;i by early Polynesian settlers. Only one federally listed Endangered plant, Asplenium peruvianum var. insulare , was found within the survey area. Additionally, we found one immature plant that may be Sicyos macrophyllus , a candidate species for listing. However, we were not able to make a definite determination of this species‟ identity since it did not have fruits or flowers. Finally, we documented four plant species within the survey area that have no official status designation but are considered to be rare and informally recognized as &ldquo;species of concern&rdquo; (SOC) as they appear to be declining in distribution and abundance statewide. These included Chamaesyce olowaluana, Eragrostis deflexa, Sisyrinchium acre, and Tetramolopium consanguineum . In addition to conducting field surveys, we performed a query on a spatial database developed by Dr. Jonathan Price of the University of Hawai&bdquo;i at Hilo which models the potential range of all native Hawaiian plant species based on historic observations and a set of environmental parameters. The potential species list for the Lupea Project area includes 47 taxa that we did not find during our surveys, as well as three other listed species that were not modeled by Price, but known from historic records in adjacent habitats. Some of these species are extremely rare or, in some cases have been locally extirpated. However, most of the plants that were predicted but not found during our surveys are expected to be located with additional searching, or may potentially recolonize the area following the elimination of ungulates and initiation of other restoration efforts. Forty-four introduced plant species were found within the survey area, seven of which are considered to be highly invasive. These include the grasses Pennisetum clandestinum and Pennisetum setaceum , vines Delairea odorata and Passiflora tarminiana , herbs Senecio madagascariensis and Verbascum thapsus , and the shrub Rubus niveus . Non-zero baseline values are proposed for the one listed plant species found within the Lupea Project area, one species that is a candidate for listing, and the four other rare species we found that may be considered for listing in the future. Additionally, a zero baseline is proposed for 23 other species that were predicted, but not found within the project area. These include 14 Endangered species, one Threatened species, two candidates for listing, and six species of concern. Subsequent monitoring of the site will be necessary to determine if the populations of these species have increased or decreased relative to their baseline values. It is presumed that the management activities Kamehameha Schools has proposed for this area, particularly removal of the ungulates and weed control, will provide a benefit to the habitat as a whole and allow for natural regeneration and maintenance of the all elements of the plant communities found there.

Hawaii↗

A landscape indicator approach to the identification and articulation of the consequences of land-cover change in the Mid-Atlantic Region, 1973-2001

Landscape indicators, derived from land-use and land-cover data, hydrology, nitrate deposition, and elevation data, were used by Jones and others (2001a) to calculate the ecological consequences of land-cover change. Nitrate loading and physical bird habitat were modeled from 1973 and 1992 land-cover and other spatial data for the Mid-Atlantic region. Utilizing the same methods, this study extends the analysis another decade with the use of the 2001 National Land Cover Dataset. Land-cover statistics and trends are calculated for three time periods: 1973-1992, 1992-2001 and 1973-2001. In addition, high-resolution aerial photographs (1 meter or better ground-sample distance) were acquired and analyzed for thirteen pairs of adjacent USGS 7.5 minute quadrangle maps in areas where distinct positive or negative changes to nitrogen loading and bird habitat were previously calculated. During the entire 30 year period, the data show that there was extensive loss of agriculture and forest area and a major increase in urban land-cover classes. However, the majority of the conversion of other classes to urban occurred during the 1992-2001 period. During the 1973-1992 period, there was only moderate increase in urban area, while there was an inverse relationship between agricultural change and forest change. In general, forest gain and agricultural loss was found in areas of improving landscape indicators, and forest loss and agricultural gain was found to occur in areas of declining indicators related to habitat and nitrogen loadings, which was generally confirmed by the aerial photographic analysis. In terms of the specific model results, bird habitat, which is mainly related to the extent of forest cover, declined overall with forest extent, but was also affected more in the decline of habitat quality. Nitrate loading, which is mainly related to agricultural land cover actually improved from 1992-2001, and in the overall study, mainly due to the conversion of agriculture to forests and urban. The high-resolution imagery analysis was significant in that it confirmed, at a very local level, the specific land-cover changes that were driving the landscape metrics and model results that were calculated from moderate resolution land-cover data and models. These were generally subtle changes in patch size of agriculture, forest, and urban areas, but had substantial effects on bird habitat and nitrogen loadings. This analysis of high-resolution imagery demonstrates and confirms the important ability of moderate-resolution land-cover data to capture significant landscape-level activity that is directly related to specific metrics of ecological significance. It also demonstrates consistent landscape-scale relationships between data derived from high-resolution, moderate-resolution and landscape-model sources. Finally, many of the areas of improvement and decline in bird habitat and nitrogen loadings appear to be potentially regional in nature and likely reflect some local trend in landscape activity. Although the use of ecoregions as sampling units has been criticized in recent years, these results show that basic changes in Level 1 land-cover categories, such as forest and agriculture, may still reflect ecoregional patterns and considerations at some scale of mapping and analysis. This is a potentially important area for future landscape-indicator research. This and other follow-on research opportunities are discussed.

Open-File Report↗