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Estimating migratory game-bird productivity by integrating age ratio and banding data

Context: Reproduction is a critical component of fitness, and understanding factors that influence temporal and spatial dynamics in reproductive output is important for effective management and conservation. Although several indices of reproductive output for wide-ranging species, such as migratory birds, exist, there has been no theoretical justification for their estimators or associated measures of variance. Aims: The aims of our research were to develop statistical justification for an estimator of reproduction and associated variances on the basis of an existing national wing-collection survey and banding data, and to demonstrate the applicability of this estimator to a migratory game bird. Methods: We used a Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach to integrate wing-collection data, which provides information on population age ratios, and band-recovery data, which provides information on recovery probabilities of various age classes, for American woodcock ( Scolopax minor ) to estimate productivity and associated measures of variance. We present two models of relative vulnerability between age classes: one model assumed that adult recovery probabilities were higher, but that annual fluctuations were synchronous between the two age classes (i.e. an additive effect of age and year). The second model assumed that adults, on average, had higher recovery probabilities than did juveniles and that annual fluctuations were asynchronous through time (i.e. an interaction between age and year). Key results: Fitting our models within a hierarchical Bayesian framework efficiently incorporates the two data types into a single estimator and derives appropriate variances for the productivity estimator. Further, use of Bayesian methods enabled us to derive credible intervals that avoid the reliance on asymptotic assumptions. When applied to American woodcock data, the additive model resulted in biologically realistic and more precise age-ratio estimates each year and is adequate when the relative vulnerability to sampling only slightly varies or does not vary among components of a population (e.g. age, sex class) among years. Therefore, we recommend using woodcock indices from our analysis based on this model. Conclusions: We provide a flexible modelling framework for estimating productivity and associated variances that can incorporate ecological covariates to explore various factors that could drive annual dynamics in productivity. Applying our model to the American woodcock data indicated that assumptions about the variability in relative recovery probabilities could greatly influence the precision of our productivity estimator. Therefore, researchers should carefully consider the assumption of temporally variable relative recovery probabilities (i.e. ratio of juvenile to adults' recovery probability) for different age classes when applying this estimator. Implications: Several national and international management strategies for migratory game birds in North America rely on measures of productivity from harvest survey parts collections, without a justification of the estimator or providing estimates of precision. We derive an estimator of productivity with realistic measures of uncertainty that can be directly incorporated into management plans or ecological studies across large spatial scales.

Wildlife Research↗

Association of excessive precipitation and agricultural land use with honey bee colony performance

Context: From landscape variables to weather, multiple environmental factors affect honey bees and other pollinators. Detailed honey bee colony assessments in a variety of landscape and weather conditions offer the opportunity to develop a mechanistic understanding of how landscape composition, configuration, and weather are associated with colony nutrition, demography, and productivity. Objectives: Our objective was to test if weather and landscape characteristics (e.g., agricultural versus forested land use) are associated with different honey bee colony outcomes (foraged nectar mass, foraged pollen mass, pupal population size, and adult population size change). Methods: We collected detailed colony measurements on over 450 honey bee colonies over four years across an agricultural-to-forested land use gradient in Michigan, USA. Results: We found that higher than normal precipitation in the preceding spring and fall was negatively correlated with colony size change and with foraged nectar mass, respectively. Sites surrounded by less agricultural land and more forested land also had fewer pupae by the end of summer. Conclusions: These inter-dependent colony metrics offer insights into environmental-plant-pollinator dynamics. Our finding that extreme weather events, associated with climate change, are negatively correlated with colony performance point to likely lagged effects of weather on pollinator floral resources. Landscapes managed with climate-resilient, temporally continuous floral resources are likely to support pollinators. Capturing extreme weather phenomena in field studies is a valuable way to investigate the associations between land use, climate change and biological systems. However, caution should be taken in overinterpreting observational studies, so further research is needed.

Landscape Ecology↗

Temperature-influenced energetics model for migrating waterfowl

Climate and weather affect avian migration by influencing when and where birds fly, the energy costs and risks of flight, and the ability to sense cues necessary for proper navigation. We review the literature of the physiology of avian migration and the influence of climate, specifically temperature, on avian migration dynamics. We use waterfowl as a model guild because of the ready availability of empirical physiological data and their enormous economic value, but our discussion and expectations are broadly generalizable to migratory birds in general. We detail potential consequences of an increasingly warm climate on avian migration, including the possibility of the cessation of migration by some populations and species. Our intent is to lay the groundwork for including temperature effects on energetic gains and losses of migratory birds with the expected consequences of increasing temperatures into a predictive modeling framework. To this end, we provide a simulation of migration progression exclusively focused on the influence of temperature on the physiological determinants of migration. This simulation produced comparable results to empirically derived and observed values for different migratory factors (e.g., body fat content, flight range, departure date). By merging knowledge from the arenas of avian physiology and migratory theory we have identified a clear need for research and have developed hypotheses for a path forward.

Ecological Modelling↗

Dynamic N-mixture models with temporal variability in detection probability

In theory parameters of dynamic N-mixture models can be estimated with multiple years of data without the robust design under the assumption of constant detection probability. However, such an assumption can rarely be met in long-term studies, and the consequences of violating this assumption in the inferences of dynamic N-mixture models have not been assessed. In this study we used simulation studies to evaluate inferences of the original dynamic N-mixture model and two of its spatial extensions in the face of temporal variability in detection probability. We first evaluated the dynamic N-mixture models when detection probability that varied temporally was wrongly treated as a constant. We then evaluated if the robust design was necessary for dynamic N-mixture models to provide valid parameter estimates when detection probability was correctly assumed to vary temporally. Our results showed that, when detection probability that varied temporally was wrongly treated as a constant, biases were introduced in the parameter estimates of dynamic N-mixture models. When detection probability was correctly assumed to vary temporally, the models could provide valid parameter estimates with the robust design. The model could also provide valid parameter estimates when detection probability was a random effect, even without the robust design. Based on our results, we strongly recommended considering temporal variability in detection probability when using dynamic N-mixture models to analyze long-term data and adopting the robust design in long-term surveys. Our work here is not only useful for data analysis but also important for research design, and thus are relevant to a wide range of studies.

Ecological Modelling↗

Variability of community interaction networks in marine reserves and adjacent exploited areas

Regional and small-scale local oceanographic conditions can lead to high variability in community structure even among similar habitats. Communities with identical species composition can depict distinct networks due to different levels of disturbance as well as physical and biological processes. In this study we reconstruct community networks in four different areas off the Oregon Coast by matching simulated communities with observed dynamics. We compared reserves with harvested areas. Simulations suggested that different community networks, but with the same species composition, can represent each study site. Differences were found in predator-prey interactions as well as non-predatory interactions between community members. In addition, each site can be represented as a set of models, creating alternative stages among sites. The set of alternative models that characterize each study area depicts a sequence of functional responses where each specific model or interaction structure creates different species composition patterns. Different management practices, either in the past or of the present, may lead to alternative communities. Our findings suggest that management strategies should be analyzed at a community level that considers the possible consequences of shifting from one community scenario to another. This analysis provides a novel conceptual framework to assess the consequences of different management options for ecological communities. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fisheries Research↗

Breeding bird response to partially harvested riparian management zones

We compared avian communities among three timber harvesting treatments in 45-m wide even-age riparian management zones (RMZs) placed between upland clearcuts and along one side of first- or second-order streams in northern Minnesota, USA. The RMZs had three treatments: (1) unharvested, (2) intermediate residual basal area (RBA) (targeted goal 11.5 m 2 /ha, realized 16.0 m 2 /ha), and (3) low RBA (targeted goal 5.7 m 2 /ha, realized 8.7 m 2 /ha). Surveys were conducted one year pre-harvest and three consecutive years post-harvest. There was no change in species richness, diversity, or total abundance associated with harvest but there were shifts in the types of birds within the community. In particular, White-throated Sparrows ( Zonotrichia albicollis ) and Chestnut-sided Warblers ( Dendroica pensylvanica ) increased while Ovenbirds ( Seiurus aurocapilla ) and Red-eyed Vireos ( Vireo olivaceus ) decreased. The decline of avian species associated with mature forest in the partially harvested treatments relative to controls indicates that maintaining an unharvested RMZ adjacent to an upland harvest may aid in maintaining avian species associated mature forest in Minnesota for at least three years post-harvest. However, our observations do not reflect reproductive success, which is an area for future research.

Minnesota↗

Hybrid seine for full fish community collections

Seines are simple and effective fish collection gears, but the net mesh size influences how well the catch represents the fish communities. We designed and tested a hybrid seine with a dual-mesh bag (1/4″ and 1/8″) and compared the fish assemblage collected by each mesh. The fine-mesh net retained three times as many fish and collected more species (as many as eight), including representatives of several rare species, than did the coarser mesh. The dual-mesh bag permitted us to compare both sizes and species retained by each layer and to develop species-specific abundance correction factors, which allowed comparison of catches with the coarse-mesh seine used for earlier collections. The results indicate that a hybrid seine with coarse-mesh wings and a fine-mesh bag would enhance future studies of fish communities, especially when small-bodied fishes or early life stages are the research focus.

Journal of Freshwater Ecology↗

Monthly river temperature trends across the US confound annual changes

Climate variations and human modifications of the water cycle continue to alter the Earth's surface water and energy exchanges. It is therefore critical to ascertain how these changes impact water quality and aquatic ecosystem habitat metrics such as river temperatures. Though river temperature trend analyses exist in the literature, studies on seasonal trends in river temperatures across large spatial extents, e.g. the contiguous United States (US), are limited. As we show through both annual and monthly trend analyses for 20 year ( n = 138 sites) and 40 year ( n = 40 sites) periods, annual temperature trends across the US mask extensive monthly variability. While most sites exhibited annual warming trends, these annual trends obscured sub-annual cooling trends at many sites. Monthly trend anomalies were spatially organized, with persistent regional patterns at both reference and human-impacted sites. The largest warming and cooling anomalies happened at human impacted sites and during summer months. Though our analysis points to coherence in trends as well as the overall impact of human activity in driving these patterns, we did not investigate the impact of river temperature observation accuracy on reported trends, an area needed for future work. Overall, these patterns emphasize the need to consider sub-annual behavior when managing the ecological impacts of river temperature throughout lotic networks.

Environmental Research Letters↗

Spring migration of waterfowl in the Northern Hemisphere: a management and conservation perspective

Spring migration is a key part of the annual cycle for waterfowl populations in the northern hemisphere, due to its temporal proximity to the breeding season and because resources may be limited at one or more staging sites. Research based on field observations during spring lags behind other periods of the year, despite the potential for fitness consequences through diminished survival or cross-seasonal effects of conditions experienced during migration. Consequently, conservation strategies for waterfowl on spring migration are often only refined versions of practices used during autumn and winter. Here we discuss the current state of knowledge of habitat requirements for waterfowl at their spring migratory sites and the intrinsic and extrinsic factors that lead to variability in those requirements. The provision of plant foods has become the main conservation strategy during spring because of the birds’ energy requirements at this time, not only to fuel migration but to facilitate early clutch formation on arrival at the breeding grounds. Although energy sources are important to migrants, there is little evidence on the extent to which the availability of carbohydrate-based food is limiting for many migratory waterfowl populations. Such limitation is relatively unlikely among populations that exploit agricultural grain during migration (e.g. arctic-nesting geese), suggesting that conservation strategies for these populations may be misplaced. In general, however, we found few cases in which an ecological understanding of spring-migrating waterfowl was sufficient to indicate true resource limitation during migration, and still fewer cases where conservation efforts ameliorated these limitations. We propose a framework that aims to address knowledge gaps and apply empirical research results to conservation strategies based on documented limitations and associated fitness impacts on migrating waterfowl. Such a strategy would improve allocation of scarce conservation resources during spring migration and greatly improve ecological understanding of migratory waterfowl and their habitats in the northern hemisphere.

Wildfowl↗

Boll weevil eradication: a model for sea lamprey control?

Invasions of boll weevil ( Anthonomus grandis ) into the United States and sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) into the Great Lakes were similar in many ways. Important species (American cotton, Gossypium hirsutum , and lake trout, Salvelinus namaycush ) and the industries they supported were negatively affected. Initial control efforts were unsuccessful until pesticides and application technologies were developed. For boll weevils, controls relying on pesticides evolved into an integrated program that included recommended farming practices and poisoned baits. However, the discovery of a boll weevil sex pheromone in 1964 allowed adoption of an ongoing program of eradication. Despite opposition over concept and cost, insecticides, pheromone traps, poisoned baits, and approved farming practices were used to eradicate boll weevils from Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and Alabama by 1999. Using the working back approach along the path of the original invasion, eradication was nearly completed by 2002 in Mississippi and eradication programs were underway in Arkansas, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and parts of Texas. Insecticide use for cotton production decreased 50 to 90%, and cotton yields and farm income increased an average of 78 kg/ha and $190 U.S./ha in areas where boll weevils were eradicated. For sea lampreys, integrated management uses lampricides, barriers to migration, trapping, and release of sterilized males. Although sea lamprey eradication is not currently feasible, recent research on larval and sex pheromones might provide the tools to make it possible. A successful eradication program for sea lampreys starting in Lake Superior and expanding to the lower Great Lakes would ultimately provide huge ecological and economic benefits by eliminating lampricide applications, removing barriers that block teleost fishes, and facilitating the recovery of lake trout. Should the opportunity arise, the concept of sea lamprey eradication should not be rejected out of hand. The successful boll weevil eradication program shows that sea lamprey eradication might be achievable.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

Identifying headwater streams across the conterminous United States

Headwater streams play critical roles in hydrologic and biogeochemical processes and functions, yet their spatial distribution and land cover context remain poorly understood at continental scales, and no dedicated geospatial dataset exists. Building from a high-resolution conterminous United States (CONUS) hydrography network dataset, we quantified the spatial extent, density, and upstream catchment characteristics of headwater stream segments across the CONUS. We identified approximately 8.4 million kilometers of headwater streams, finding that 77% of the total stream network consists of headwaters, nearly double the total length represented in prior estimates. Stream density varied fivefold across regions, from < 1 km·km −2 in arid basins to > 5 km·km −2 in humid, forested areas. Over 73% of the CONUS landmass drains from headwater streams. The majority of headwater stream length occurred in forested and cultivated catchments across the CONUS, while substantial regional differences were evident for headwater stream distribution in other land cover classes (for example, wetlands, urban areas, shrublands, and herbaceous-dominated catchments). The dedicated and novel geospatial dataset, HELiOS (HEadwater streams and Low-Order Systems) is introduced for management and research use. The HELiOS dataset provides the first continental-scale, high-resolution characterization of headwater streams, offering new insights and opportunities for hydrologic modeling, ecological assessments, and environmental policy.

conterminous United States↗

Comparing spatial capture–recapture modeling and nest count methods to estimate orangutan densities in the Wehea Forest, East Kalimantan, Indonesia

Accurate information on the density and abundance of animal populations is essential for understanding species' ecology and for conservation planning, but is difficult to obtain. The endangered orangutan ( Pongo spp.) is an example; due to its elusive behavior and low densities, researchers have relied on methods that convert nest counts to orangutan densities and require substantial effort for reliable results. Camera trapping and spatial capture&ndash;recapture (SCR) models could provide an alternative but have not been used for primates. We compared density estimates calculated using the two methods for orangutans in the Wehea Forest, East Kalimantan, Indonesia. Camera trapping/SCR modeling produced a density estimate of 0.16 &plusmn; 0.09&ndash;0.29 indiv/km 2 , and nest counts produced a density estimate of 1.05 &plusmn; 0.18&ndash;6.01 indiv/km 2 . The large confidence interval of the nest count estimate is probably due to high variance in nest encounter rates, indicating the need for larger sample size and the substantial effort required to produce reliable results using this method. The SCR estimate produced a very low density estimate and had a narrower but still fairly wide confidence interval. This was likely due to unmodeled heterogeneity and small sample size, specifically a low number of individual captures and recaptures. We propose methodological fixes that could address these issues and improve precision. A comparison of the overall costs and benefits of the two methods suggests that camera trapping/SCR modeling can potentially be a useful tool for assessing the densities of orangutans and other elusive primates, and warrant further investigation to determine broad applicability and methodological adjustments needed.

East Kalimantan↗

Fire regimes of quaking aspen in the Mountain West

Quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) is the most widespread tree species in North America, and it is found throughout much of the Mountain West (MW) across a broad range of bioclimatic regions. Aspen typically regenerates asexually and prolifically after fire, and due to its seral status in many western conifer forests, aspen is often considered dependent upon disturbance for persistence. In many landscapes, historical evidence for post-fire aspen establishment is clear, and following extended fire-free periods senescing or declining aspen overstories sometimes lack adequate regeneration and are succeeding to conifers. However, aspen also forms relatively stable stands that contain little or no evidence of historical fire. In fact, aspen woodlands range from highly fire-dependent, seral communities to relatively stable, self-replacing, non-seral communities that do not require fire for persistence. Given the broad geographic distribution of aspen, fire regimes in these forests likely co-vary spatially with changing community composition, landscape setting, and climate, and temporally with land use and climate – but relatively few studies have explicitly focused on these important spatiotemporal variations. Here we reviewed the literature to summarize aspen fire regimes in the western US and highlight knowledge gaps. We found that only about one-fourth of the 46 research papers assessed for this review could be considered fire history studies (in which mean fire intervals were calculated), and all but one of these were based primarily on data from fire-scarred conifers. Nearly half of the studies reported at least some evidence of persistent aspen in the absence of fire. We also found that large portions of the MW have had little or no aspen fire history research. As a result of this review, we put forth a classification framework for aspen that is defined by key fire regime parameters (fire severity and probability), and that reflects underlying biophysical settings and correlated aspen functional types. We propose the following aspen fire regime types: (1) fire-independent, stable aspen; (2) fire-influenced, stable aspen; (3) fire-dependent, seral, conifer-aspen mix; (4) fire-dependent, seral, montane aspen-conifer; and (5) fire-dependent, seral, subalpine aspen-conifer. Closing research gaps and validating our proposed aspen fire regime classification will likely require additional site-specific research, enhanced dendrochronology techniques, charcoal and pollen record analysis, spatially-explicit modeling, and other techniques. We hope to encourage development of site-appropriate disturbance ecology characterizations, in order to aid efforts to manage and restore aspen communities and to diagnose key factors contributing to changes in aspen.

Forest Ecology and Management↗

Fine scale habitat use by age-1 stocked muskellunge and wild northern pike in an upper St. Lawrence River bay

Radio telemetry of stocked muskellunge ( n = 6) and wild northern pike ( n = 6) was used to track late summer and fall movements from a common release point in a known shared nursery bay to test the hypothesis that age-1 northern pike and stocked muskellunge segregate and have different habitat affinities. Water depth, temperature, substrate and aquatic vegetation variables were estimated for each muskellunge ( n = 103) and northern pike ( n = 131) position and nested ANOVA comparisons by species indicated differences in habitat use. Muskellunge exhibited a greater displacement from the release point and used habitat in shallower water depths (mean = 0.85 m, SE = 0.10) than northern pike (mean = 1.45 m, SE = 0.08). Both principal components analysis (PCA) and principal components ordination (PCO) were used to interpret underlying gradients relative to fish positions in two-dimensional space. Our analysis indicated that a separation of age-1 northern pike and muskellunge occurred 7 d post-release. This first principal component explained 48% of the variation in habitat use. Northern pike locations were associated with deeper habitats that generally had softer silt substrates and dense submersed vegetation. Muskellunge locations post-acclimation showed greater association with shallower habitats containing firmer sandy and clay substrates and emergent vegetation. The observed differences in habitat use suggest that fine-scale ecological separation occurred between these stocked muskellunge and wild northern pike, but small sample sizes and potential for individual variation limit extension of these conclusions. Further research is needed to determine if these patterns exist between larger samples of fishes over a greater range of habitats.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

A geographic dataset of rocky reefs habitat areas of particular concern for the United States West Coast

The United States National Marine Fisheries Service determines “essential fish habitat (EFH)” for federally managed species in coordination with regional fishery management councils, considers adverse effects to those habitats, and provides information to further habitat conservation and enhancement. Identifying discrete subsets of EFH as “habitat areas of particular concern (HAPC)” can help focus conservation, management, and research efforts. In 2006, the Pacific Fishery Management Council designated rocky reefs along the United States (U.S.) West Coast as HAPCs for groundfishes because of their ecological significance, sensitivity to human impacts, and relative rarity. To better understand where rocky reefs occur, we (1) located rocky reef areas that were not included in the 2006 rocky reef dataset, and (2) incorporated best available data into a refined geographic dataset that enables visualization. Our update shows that rocky reefs are distributed throughout the U.S. West Coast continental margin, are patchier than previously known, and comprise 8% of the extent of all data inputs. This updated dataset will inform resource management decisions in coastal and marine environments.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

Envisioning, quantifying, and managing thermal regimes on river networks

Water temperatures fluctuate in time and space, creating diverse thermal regimes on river networks. Temporal variability in these thermal landscapes has important biological and ecological consequences because of nonlinearities in physiological reactions; spatial diversity in thermal landscapes provides aquatic organisms with options to maximize growth and survival. However, human activities and climate change threaten to alter the dynamics of riverine thermal regimes. New data and tools can identify particular facets of the thermal landscape that describe ecological and management concerns and that are linked to human actions. The emerging complexity of thermal landscapes demands innovations in communication, opens the door to exciting research opportunities on the human impacts to and biological consequences of thermal variability, suggests improvements in monitoring programs to better capture empirical patterns, provides a framework for suites of actions to restore and protect the natural processes that drive thermal complexity, and indicates opportunities for better managing thermal landscapes.

Washington↗

Integrating anthropogenic factors into regional-scale species distribution models — A novel application in the imperiled sagebrush biome

Species distribution models (SDM) that rely on regional-scale environmental variables will play a key role in forecasting species occurrence in the face of climate change. However, in the Anthropocene, a number of local-scale anthropogenic variables, including wildfire history, land-use change, invasive species, and ecological restoration practices can override regional-scale variables to drive patterns of species distribution. Incorporating these human-induced factors into SDMs remains a major research challenge, in part because spatial variability in these factors occurs at fine scales, rendering prediction over regional extents problematic. Here, we used big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata Nutt.) as a model species to explore whether including human-induced factors improves the fit of the SDM. We applied a Bayesian hurdle spatial approach using 21,753 data points of field-sampled vegetation obtained from the LANDFIRE program to model sagebrush occurrence and cover by incorporating fire history metrics and restoration treatments from 1980 to 2015 throughout the Great Basin of North America.

Global Change Biology↗

Strategies for reducing risks from introductions of aquatic organisms: A philosophical perspective

North American waters contain a variety of introduced aquatic plants, invertebrates and fishes. Many species are exotic (of foreign origin) but most are transplants of native forms. While carelessness and accidental releases have led to establishment of the majority of introduced aquatic organisms, a significant number have been purposefully or intentionally released, often without forethought or research as to their negative impacts on other living resources and habitat. Introductions remain an important tool in fisheries management, but must be conducted on sound ecological bases rather than as expediencies, as has often characterized the past. Strategies are considered in the context of aquatic resource management for reducing risks of future planned introductions to North American waters. Because introduced species do not respect political boundaries, greater interstate, interprovincial, and international cooperation is required regarding introductions.

Fisheries↗