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USGS2020

Moving beyond p<0.05 in ecotoxicology: A guide for practitioners

Statistical inferences play a critical role in ecotoxicology. Historically, Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST) has been the dominant method for inference in ecotoxicology. As a brief and informal definition of the NHST approach, researchers compare (or test) an experimental treatment or observation against a hypothesis of no relationship or effect (the null hypothesis) using the collected data to see if the observed values are statistically significant given predefined error rates. The resulting probability of observing a value equal to or greater than the observed value assuming the null hypothesis is true is the p-value. Historically, criticisms of NHST have existed for almost a century and more recently these have grown to the point where statisticians, including the American Statistical Association, have felt the need to clarify the role of NHST and p-values in science beyond their current, common use. These limitations also exist in ecotoxicology. For example, a review of the 2010 Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (ET&C) volume found many authors did not correctly report p-values. We repeated this review looking at the 2019 volume of ET&C and the incorrect reporting of p-values still occurred almost a decade later. Problems with NHST and p-values highlight the need for statistical inferences besides NHST, something that has long been known in ecotoxicology and the broader scientific and statistical communities. Furthermore, concerns such as these led the Executive Director of the American Statistical Association to recommend against use of statistical significance in 2019. In light of these criticisms, however, ecotoxicologists require alternative methods. In this paper, we describe some alternative methods including confidence intervals, regression analysis, dose-response curves, Bayes factors, survival analysis, and model selection. Lastly, we provide insights for what ecotoxicology might look like in a post-p-value world.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

USGS2020

Assessing the ecological risks of per‐ and polyfluoroalkyl substances: Current state‐of‐the science and a proposed path forward

Per‐ and poly‐fluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) encompass a large, heterogenous group of chemicals of potential concern to human health and the environment. Based on information for a few relatively well‐understood PFAS such as perfluorooctane sulfonate and perfluorooctanoate, there is ample basis to suspect that at least a subset can be considered persistent, bioaccumulative, and/or toxic. However, data suitable for determining risks in either prospective or retrospective assessments are lacking for the majority of PFAS. In August 2019, the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry sponsored a workshop that focused on the state‐of‐the‐science supporting risk assessment of PFAS. The present review summarizes discussions concerning the ecotoxicology and ecological risks of PFAS. First, we summarize currently available information relevant to problem formulation/prioritization, exposure, and hazard/effects of PFAS in the context of regulatory and ecological risk assessment activities from around the world. We then describe critical gaps and uncertainties relative to ecological risk assessments for PFAS and propose approaches to address these needs. Recommendations include the development of more comprehensive monitoring programs to support exposure assessment, an emphasis on research to support the formulation of predictive models for bioaccumulation, and the development of in silico, in vitro, and in vivo methods to efficiently assess biological effects for potentially sensitive species/endpoints. Addressing needs associated with assessing the ecological risk of PFAS will require cross‐disciplinary approaches that employ both conventional and new methods in an integrated, resource‐effective manner.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

USGS2021

The sensitivity of a unionid mussel (Lampsilis siliquoidea) to a permitted effluent and elevated potassium in the effluent

Freshwater mussels are one of the most imperiled groups of animals in the world and are among the most sensitive species to a variety of chemicals. However, little is known about the sensitivity of freshwater mussels to wastewater effluents. The objectives of the present study were to (1) assess the toxicity of a permitted effluent, which entered the Deep Fork River, Oklahoma (USA), to a unionid mussel ( Lampsilis siliquoidea ) and to two standard test species (cladoceran Ceriodaphnia dubia ; and fathead minnow Pimephales promelas ) in short-term 7-day effluent tests; (2) evaluate the relative sensitivities of the three species to potassium (K), an elevated major ion in the effluent, using 7-day toxicity tests with KCl spiked into a Deep Fork River upstream reference water; (3) determine the potential influences of background water characteristics on the acute K toxicity to the mussel (96-h exposures) and cladoceran (48-h exposure) in four reconstituted waters that mimicked the hardness and ionic composition ranges of the Deep Fork River; and (4) determine the potential influence of temperature on acute K toxicity to the mussel. The effluent was found to be toxic to mussels and cladocerans, and it contained elevated concentrations of major cations and anions relative to the upstream Deep Fork River reference water. The K concentration in the effluent was 48-fold greater than in the upstream water. Compared with the standard species, the mussel was more than 4-fold more sensitive to the effluent in the 7-day effluent tests and more than 8-fold more sensitive to K in the 7-day K toxicity tests. The acute K toxicity to the mussel decreased by a factor of 2 when the water hardness was increased from soft (42 mg/L as CaCO 3 ) to very hard (314 mg/L as CaCO 3 ), whereas the acute K toxicity to the cladoceran remained almost the same as hardness increased from 84 to 307 mg/L as CaCO 3 . Acute K toxicity to the mussel at 23 °C was similar to the toxicity at an elevated temperature of 28 °C. The overall results indicate that the two standard test species may not represent the sensitivity of the tested mussel to both the effluent and K, and the toxicity of K was influenced by the hardness in test waters, but by a limited magnitude.

Oklahoma↗

USGS2022

Do pharmaceuticals in the environment pose a risk to wildlife?

The vast majority of knowledge related to the question of, “To what extent do pharmaceuticals in the environment pose a risk to wildlife?”, stems from the Asian vulture crisis (>99% decline of some species of old-world vultures on the Indian subcontinent related to the veterinary use of the non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) diclofenac). The hazard of diclofenac and other NSAIDs (carprofen, flunixin, ketoprofen, nimesulide, phenylbutazone) to vultures and other avian species has since been demonstrated; indeed only meloxicam and tolfenamic acid have been found to be vulture-safe. Since diclofenac was approved for veterinary use in Spain and Italy in 2013 (home to ~95% of vultures in Europe), the risk of NSAIDs to vultures in these countries has become one of the principal concerns related to pharmaceuticals and wildlife. Many of the other bodies of work on pharmaceutical exposure, hazard and risk to wildlife also relate to adverse effects in birds, (e.g., poisoning of scavenging birds in North America and Europe from animal carcasses containing pentobarbital; secondary and even tertiary poisoning of birds exposed to pesticides used in veterinary medicine as cattle dips; migratory birds as a vector for the transfer of antimicrobial and antifungal resistance). While there is some research related to endocrine disruption in reptiles and potential exposure of aerial insectivores, there remain numerous knowledge gaps for risk posed by pharmaceuticals to amphibians, reptiles and mammals. Developing non-invasive sampling techniques and new approach methodologies (e.g., genomic, in vitro , in silico , in ovo ) are important if we are to bridge the current knowledge gaps without extensive vertebrate testing.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

USGS1998

Overview of a workshop on screening methods for detecting potential (anti-) estrogenic/androgenic chemicals in wildlife

The U.S. Congress has passed legislation requiring the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) to develop, validate, and implement screening tests for identifying potential endocrine-disrupting chemicals within 3 years. To aid in the identification of methods suitable for this purpose, the U.S. EPA, the Chemical Manufacturers Association, and the World Wildlife Fund sponsored several workshops, including the present one, which dealt with wildlife species. This workshop was convened with 30 international scientists representing multiple disciplines in March 1997 in Kansas City, Missouri, USA. Participants at the meeting identified methods in terms of their ability to indicate (anti-) estrogenic/androgenic effects, particularly in the context of developmental and reproductive processes. Data derived from structure-activity relationship models and in vitro test systems, although useful in certain contexts, cannot at present replace in vivo tests as the sole basis for screening. A consensus was reached that existing mammalian test methods (e.g., with rats or mice) generally are suitable as screens for assessing potential (anti-) estrogenic/ androgenic effects in mammalian wildlife. However, due to factors such as among-class variation in receptor structure and endocrine function, it is uncertain if these mammalian assays would be of broad utility as screens for other classes of vertebrate wildlife. Existing full and partial life-cycle tests with some avian and fish species could successfully identify chemicals causing endocrine disruption; however, these long-term tests are not suitable for routine screening. However, a number of short-term tests with species from these two classes exist that could serve as effective screening tools for chemicals inducing (anti-) estrogenic/androgenic effects. Existing methods suitable for identifying chemicals with these mechanisms of action in reptiles and amphibians are limited, but in the future, tests with species from these classes may prove highly effective as screens. In the case of invertebrate species, too little is known at present about the biological role of estrogens and androgens in reproduction and development to recommend specific assays.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

USGS2001

Aircraft and runway deicers at General Mitchell International Airport, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA. 1. Biochemical oxygen demand and dissolved oxygen in receiving streams

Aircraft and runway deicers are used during cold weather at many of the world's airports to facilitate safe air travel. Propylene glycol-, ethylene glycol-, and urea-based deicers are known to have very high biochemical oxygen demand. At General Mitchell International Airport (GMIA) in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA, deicer application, water chemistry, and dissolved oxygen (DO) data were collected for two deicing seasons in order to evaluate and define premanagement water quality parameters prior to the implementation of a glycol management program. Calculations using stream-monitoring data during a controlled release of deicer provided an estimate of 0.8/d for the first-order decay rate constant, substantially higher than published laboratory test results. For eight precipitation events with deicing activities, between 2.4 and 99% of propylene and ethylene glycol applied to aircraft was delivered directly to receiving streams. The percentage of glycol runoff during an event increased with increasing storm-flow volume. Elevated concentrations of glycol and biochemical oxygen demand were measured downstream from the airport. However, the frequency of low DO concentrations in the receiving streams is comparable with that at an upstream reference site. This is possibly due to slowed bacteria metabolism at low water temperatures, short travel times, and dilution from downstream tributaries.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2023

Reevaluation of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin equivalency factors for dioxin-like polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins, polychlorinated dibenzofurans, and polychlorinated biphenyls for fishes

An expert meeting was organized by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 1997 to streamline assessments of risk posed by mixtures of dioxin-like chemicals (DLCs) through development of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo- p -dioxin (2,3,7,8-TCDD) equivalency factors (TEFs) for mammals, birds, and fishes. No reevaluation has been performed for fish TEFs. Therefore, the objective of the present study was to reevaluate the TEFs for fishes based on an updated database of relative potencies (RePs) for DLCs. Selection criteria consistent with the WHO meeting resulted in 53 RePs across 14 species of fish ultimately being considered. Of these RePs, 70% were not available at the time of the WHO meeting. These RePs were used to develop updated TEFs for fishes based on a similar decision process as used at the WHO meeting. The updated TEF for 16 DLCs was greater than the WHO TEF, but only four differed by more than an order of magnitude. Measured concentrations of DLCs in four environmental samples were used to compare 2,3,7,8-TCDD equivalents (TEQs) calculated using the WHO TEFs relative to the updated TEFs. The TEQs for none of these environmental samples differed by more than an order of magnitude. Therefore, present knowledge supports that the WHO TEFs are suitable potency estimates for fishes. However, the updated TEFs pull from a larger database with a greater breadth of data and as a result offer greater confidence relative to the WHO TEFs. Risk assessors will have different criteria in the selection of TEFs, and the updated TEFs are not meant to immediately replace the formal WHO TEFs; but those who value a larger database and increased confidence in TEQs could consider using the updated TEFs.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

USGS2016

Barriers to and opportunities for landward migration of coastal wetlands with sea-level rise

In the 21st century, accelerated sea-level rise and continued coastal development are expected to greatly alter coastal landscapes across the globe. Historically, many coastal ecosystems have responded to sea-level fluctuations via horizontal and vertical movement on the landscape. However, anthropogenic activities, including urbanization and the construction of flood-prevention infrastructure, can produce barriers that impede ecosystem migration. Here we show where tidal saline wetlands have the potential to migrate landward along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast, one of the most sea-level rise sensitive and wetland-rich regions of the world. Our findings can be used to identify migration corridors and develop sea-level rise adaptation strategies to help ensure the continued availability of wetland-associated ecosystem goods and services.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi,↗

USGS2018

Wanted: Future leaders for ESA

A scientific society like ESA is not just an office, nor an annual meeting, nor one or more journals, and it cannot operate without volunteer leadership. ESA is its members. It is the collective efforts of many individuals that create a vibrant organization. Members step forward in service to the society and to the community review journal articles, organize symposia and field trips at the Annual Meeting, serve on standing program committees and as Section Officers, and make strategic and financial decisions for the society as members of the Governing Board. With a small headquarters staff, much of the work accomplished by ESA rests on the shoulders of volunteer members and leaders. The combined efforts of hundreds of individuals allow ESA to develop and advance programs and maximize the society’s impact in advancing science and engaging communities. ESA is committed to being a leader in communicating ecological science among scientists and to promoting its use in our threatened world. ESA can only achieve these goals however, if its members make it happen.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

USGS2019

An old tree and its many‐shaped leaves

Plant leaf shape is highly variable. The beauty of leaves can be purely aesthetic, but also derives from the mystery of adaptive significance. This mystery is especially compelling for species with strongly varying leaf shape on a single tree. The desert poplar (Populus euphratica Oliv.) is an ancient and protected species, and forms riparian forests in deserts of mid and west Asia, north Africa and southern Europe. More than half of all desert poplar forest is found along the Tarim River within the Taklamakan, a desert in northwest China. The Taklamakan is in the rain shadow of the Himalayas and the world’s second largest shifting sand desert. There, forest extent has been greatly reduced, mostly due to flow diversion for agriculture, but many old trees persist. The tree in the picture is the oldest recorded living desert poplar. The innermost ring in a core dates back to 1709 or earlier. The leaves on this tree vary widely in shape, from smooth to dentate, from narrow to broad, and from linear to lanceolate to ovate. Drought is a dominant stressor in this hyperarid environment with highly variable temperature and soil salinity. Leaf shape may relate to tradeoffs among water conservation, thermoregulation and growth rate. Is this extremely wide variation in leaf shape on a single tree an adaptation to the large temporal fluctuations in the environment? Alternatively, could leaf polymorphism be a neutral and thus non-adaptive consequence of variable gene expressions related to developmental stages. Answers to these questions can enrich the ecological and evolutionary understanding of trees and ecological drought.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

USGS2019

Wildfires as an ecosystem service

Wildfires are often viewed as destructive disturbances. We propose that when including both evolutionary and socioecological scales, most ecosystem fires can be understood as natural processes that provide a variety of benefits to humankind. Wildfires provide open habitats that enable the evolution of a diversity of shade-intolerant plants and animals that have long been used by humans. There are many provisioning, regulating, and cultural services that we obtain from wildfires; prescribed fires and wildfire management are tools for mimicking the ancestral role of wildfires in a highly populated world.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

USGS2023

Managing the threat of infectious disease in fisheries and aquaculture using structured decision making

Fisheries and aquaculture provide food and economic security, especially in the developing world, but both face challenges from infectious disease. Here, we consider management of disease issues from a structured decision-making perspective to examine how infectious disease can threaten seafood production and influence management decisions. For both wild fisheries and aquaculture, disease-management objectives generally aim to mitigate the severity and economic burden of outbreaks. General management strategies include manipulating host densities, reducing system connectivity, conserving or improving habitat, and implementing direct treatments or some other biological interventions. To inform decisions, mathematical models can be used to explore disease dynamics and to forecast the potential effectiveness of alternative management actions. Developing and implementing disease-management strategies also involve considering uncertainties and balancing competing stakeholder interests and risk tolerances. We conclude by outlining several steps for applying structured decision making that are broadly useful to decision makers facing issues related to disease.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

USGS2018

Commercial fisheries of the Upper Mississippi River: A model of sustainability

Commercial harvest is often considered as a primary cause of fish population declines in marine and inland systems throughout the world. However, much of the data supporting the negative attributes of commercial harvest are derived from marine fisheries and may not be directly applicable to inland fisheries. In this study, over 60 years of commercial fishery data from the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) was synthesized to better understand how inland commercial fisheries function and to address concerns associated with the exploitation of aquatic resources in freshwater systems. Overall, total commercial harvest in the UMR remained relatively stable over the study period and did not negatively influence fish populations or recreational fisheries. Our results address concerns associated with inland fisheries and highlight how proper management and interagency partnerships result in consistent and productive fisheries over large spatial and temporal scales.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin↗

USGS2020

A fishery after the decline: The Susquehanna River Smallmouth Bass story

The Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu fishery in the Susquehanna River basin, Pennsylvania, is one of the most socioeconomically important fisheries in the region and has recently undergone considerable changes. These changes started in 2005, when disease was documented in young-of-the-year (age-0) Smallmouth Bass. Shortly thereafter, declines in abundance of both juveniles and adults were observed. These declines in abundance coincided with disease infections in age-0, intersex in adults, and concerns regarding contaminant exposure. Natural mortality rates, particularly for age-0, increased during this period (2005–2011), and there were concerns for the overall health of this world-class fishery. However, in recent years (2012–2017), there have been decreases in both mortality rates and external observations of disease and increases in abundance across multiple size-classes. Recent changes are encouraging for the future of the Smallmouth Bass fishery in the Susquehanna River. Yet, in light of the ever changing environmental, social, and anthropogenic influences on aquatic ecosystems, there remain concerns for Smallmouth Bass health and management. Because of this, ongoing research efforts are needed to monitor population and health changes and to conduct integrative research that considers complex relationships between organisms and their environments.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2022

How shall we meet? Embracing the opportunities of virtual conferencing

The SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic triggered dramatic shifts in the way that ecologists teach, research, and interact (e.g., Cooke et al. 2021 ). As the world now adjusts to a “new normal” era, there is notable and open discussion about the merits or desire to return to practices used prior to the pandemic (e.g., Roulson 2021 ). A dominant aspect of these discussions is when and how researchers can return to the practice of large, centralized, in-person conferences that have been the primary mode of professional interaction for decades. While questions of safety are naturally paramount and will guide decision making for some time, there remains the broader question of whether and how to implement virtual and hybrid formats in the future. Discussions about the return to in-person meetings and expressed resentment about the use of virtual formats (Stevens and Murphy 2021 ) that we routinely see circulated by professional organizations and on social media assume that the latter is a lesser-quality version of the former. However, we put forward that these sentiments neglect the diversity of opinions among scientists and evidence of prevalent, positive attitudes about the use of virtual (and possibly, as yet undeveloped) modes of conferences. For example, 74% of more than 900 researchers surveyed by the journal Nature during the initial phase of the pandemic expressed a desire for virtual conferences to remain in practice even when travel restrictions were eased (Remmel 2021 ). Other surveys have shown that scientists are highly interested in alternative conference formats due to concerns about climate change (Nursey-Bray et al. 2019 ; Haage 2020 ) and access (Niner and Wassermann 2021 ). These data indicate most researchers have personal circumstances or perspectives that recognize the value of a broader discussion about how conferences and interactions among researchers can be shaped.

Fisheries Magazine↗

USGS2022

Decades of global sturgeon conservation efforts are threatened by an expanding captive culture industry

After centuries of overexploitation and habitat loss, many of the world's sturgeon (Acipenseridae) populations are at the brink of extinction. Although significant resources are invested into the conservation and restoration of imperiled sturgeons, the burgeoning commercial culture industry poses an imminent threat to the persistence of many populations. In the past decade, the number and distribution of captive sturgeon facilities has grown exponentially and now encompasses diverse interest groups ranging from hobby aquarists to industrial-scale commercial facilities. Expansion of sturgeon captive culture has largely fallen outside the purview of existing regulatory frameworks, raising concerns that continued growth of this industry has real potential to jeopardize conservation of global sturgeon populations. Here, we highlight some of the most significant threats commercial culture poses to wild populations, with particular emphasis on how releases can accelerate wild population declines through mechanisms such as hybridization, introgression, competition, and disease transmission. We also note that in some circumstances, commercial captive culture has continued to motivate harvest of wild populations, potentially accelerating species' declines. Given the prevalence and trajectory of sturgeon captive culture programs, we comment on modifications to regulatory frameworks that could improve the ability of captive culture to support wild sturgeon conservation.

Fisheries Magazine↗

USGS2017

Elemental, isotopic, and geochronological variability in Mogollon-Datil volcanic province archaeological obsidian, southwestern USA: Solving issues of intersource discrimination

Solving issues of intersource discrimination in archaeological obsidian is a recurring problem in geoarchaeological investigation, particularly since the number of known sources of archaeological obsidian worldwide has grown nearly exponentially in the last few decades, and the complexity of archaeological questions asked has grown equally so. These two parallel aspects of archaeological investigation have required more exacting understanding of the geological relationship between sources and the more accurate analysis of these sources of archaeological obsidian. This is particularly the case in the North American Southwest where the frequency of archaeological investigation is some of the highest in the world, and the theory and method used to interpret that record has become increasingly nuanced. Here, we attempt to unravel the elemental similarity of archaeological obsidian in the Mogollon-Datil volcanic province of southwestern New Mexico where some of the most important and extensively distributed sources are located and the elemental similarity between the sources is great even though the distance between the sources is large. Uniting elemental, isotopic, and geochronological analyses as an intensive pilot study, we unpack this complexity to provide greater understanding of these important sources of archaeological obsidian.

New Mexico↗

USGS2013

Characterizing and estimating noise in InSAR and InSAR time series with MODIS

InSAR time series analysis is increasingly used to image subcentimeter displacement rates of the ground surface. The precision of InSAR observations is often affected by several noise sources, including spatially correlated noise from the turbulent atmosphere. Under ideal scenarios, InSAR time series techniques can substantially mitigate these effects; however, in practice the temporal distribution of InSAR acquisitions over much of the world exhibit seasonal biases, long temporal gaps, and insufficient acquisitions to confidently obtain the precisions desired for tectonic research. Here, we introduce a technique for constraining the magnitude of errors expected from atmospheric phase delays on the ground displacement rates inferred from an InSAR time series using independent observations of precipitable water vapor from MODIS. We implement a Monte Carlo error estimation technique based on multiple (100+) MODIS-based time series that sample date ranges close to the acquisitions times of the available SAR imagery. This stochastic approach allows evaluation of the significance of signals present in the final time series product, in particular their correlation with topography and seasonality. We find that topographically correlated noise in individual interferograms is not spatially stationary, even over short-spatial scales (<10 km). Overall, MODIS-inferred displacements and velocities exhibit errors of similar magnitude to the variability within an InSAR time series. We examine the MODIS-based confidence bounds in regions with a range of inferred displacement rates, and find we are capable of resolving velocities as low as 1.5 mm/yr with uncertainties increasing to ∼6 mm/yr in regions with higher topographic relief.

California↗