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This map describes the possible hazard from earthquake-induced landslides for the city of Berkeley, CA. The hazard depicted by this map was modeled for a scenario corresponding to an M=7.1 earthquake on the Hayward, CA fault. This scenario magnitude is associated with complete rupture of the northern and southern segments of the Hayward fault, an event that has an estimated return period of about 500 years. The modeled hazard also corresponds to completely saturated ground-water conditions resulting from an extreme storm event or series of storm events. This combination of earthquake and ground-water scenarios represents a particularly severe state of hazard for earthquake-induced landslides. For dry ground-water conditions, overall hazard will be less, while relative patterns of hazard are likely to change. Purpose: The map is intended as a tool for regional planning. Any site-specific planning or analysis should be undertaken with the assistance of a qualified geotechnical engineer. This hazard map should not be used as a substitute to the State of California Seismic Hazard Zones map for the same area. (See California Department of Conservation, Division of Mines and Geology, 1999). As previously noted for maps of this type by Wieczorek and others (1985), this map should not be used as a basis to determine the absolute risk from seismically triggered landslides at any locality, as the sole justification for zoning or rezoning any parcel, for detailed design of any lifeline, for site-specific hazard-reduction planning, or for setting or modifying insurance rates.
This map is a demonstration product of experiments in land use and land cover mapping using remote sensor data. The map is a joint effort of the U.S. Geological Survey's Land Use Data and Analysis (LUDA) program and the Appalachian Regional Commission. It is part of a continuing USGS Land Information and Analysis Office demonstration of multi-discipline earth science contributions to the furthering of planning objectives.
Potential flow characteristics of future flooding along a 4.8-mile reach of the Flint River in Albany, Georgia, were simulated using recent digital-elevation-model data and the U.S. Geological Survey finite-element surface-water modeling system for two-dimensional flow in the horizontal plane (FESWMS-2DH). Simulated inundated areas, in 1-foot (ft) increments, were created for water-surface altitudes at the Flint River at Albany streamgage (02352500) from 192.5-ft altitude with a flow of 123,000 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) to 179.5-ft altitude with a flow of 52,500 ft3/s. The model was calibrated to match actual floods during July 1994 and March 2005 and Federal Emergency Management Administration floodplain maps. Continuity checks of selected stream profiles indicate the area near the Oakridge Drive bridge had lower velocities than other areas of the Flint River, which contributed to a rise in the flood-surface profile. The modeled inundated areas were mapped onto monochrome orthophoto imagery for use in planning for future floods. As part of a cooperative effort, the U.S. Geological Survey, the City of Albany, and Dougherty County, Georgia, conducted this study.
The Office of Water Resources (OWR) in the Alabama Department of Economic and Community Affairs (ADECA) is charged with the assessment of the State’s water resources. This study developed a watershed model for the major river basins that are within Alabama or that cross Alabama’s borders, which serves as a planning tool for water-resource decisionmakers. The watershed model chosen to assess the natural amount of available water was the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). Models were configured and calibrated for the following four river basins: Mobile, Gulf of Mexico, Middle Tennessee, and Chattahoochee. These models required calibrating unregulated U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow gaging stations to estimate natural flows, with emphases on low-flow calibration. The target calibration criteria required the errors be within the range of: (1) ±10 percent for total-streamflow volume, (2) ±10 percent for low-flow volume, (3) ±15 percent for high-flow volume, (4) ±30 percent for summer volume, and (5) above 0.5 for the correlation coefficient (R 2 ). Seventy-one of the 90 calibration stations in the watershed models for the four major river basins within Alabama met the target calibration criteria. Variability in the model performance can be attributed to limitations in correctly representing certain hydrologic conditions that are characterized by some of the ecoregions in Alabama. Ecoregions consisting of predominantly clayey soils and (or) low topographic relief yield less successful calibration results, whereas ecoregions consisting of loamy and sandy soils and (or) high topographic relief yield more successful calibration results. Results indicate that the model does well in hilly regions with sandy soils because of rapid surface runoff and more direct interaction with subsurface flow.
Several plumes of dissolved, chlorinated solvents, including trichloroethylene, have been identified in a sole-source aquifer near the former Northrop Grumman Bethpage Facility and Naval Weapons Industrial Reserve Plant sites in southeastern Nassau County, New York. Past investigations have documented that the groundwater contamination originated from this industrial area and now extends to the south, in the direction of groundwater flow. The intermixed plumes are commonly referred to as the “Navy Grumman groundwater plume.” Detailed groundwater-flow modeling was needed for the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC) to evaluate design options necessary for the construction, operation, optimization, maintenance, and monitoring of a groundwater extraction and treatment cleanup plan selected in a December 2019 Amended Record of Decision by the NYSDEC to comprehensively address these plumes. Consequently, the NYSDEC began a cooperative study with the U.S. Geological Survey in 2020 to better understand the local hydrogeologic framework using two independent approaches to characterize aquifer heterogeneity and update an existing regional groundwater-flow model to provide transient boundary conditions for new inset groundwater-flow models of the plume area. We developed these detailed inset models for the two independent aquifer characterizations using history-matching techniques coupled with a novel approach to risk-based management optimization of the remedial design. We also used the updated regional model to assess this optimized groundwater extraction and treatment design for potential saltwater intrusion. The ensembles of parameters resulting from history matching provided a platform with which to evaluate capture by water-supply and remedial wells using particle-tracking techniques. Using the ensemble to select a risk stance, we performed multiobjective optimization to identify various configurations of remedial pumping that are consistent with external constraints and that favor potentially competing objectives. Multiple solutions provide tradeoffs that NYSDEC can consider. In general, pumping redistribution may help to prevent further contamination migration downgradient. These and other study results are intended to support decisions for the remedial design focused on the local area encompassing the full extent of the Navy Grumman groundwater plume.
Having highly accurate and reliable Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) of the Earth’s surface is critical to orthorectify Landsat imagery. Without such accuracy, pixel locations reported in the data are difficult to assure as accurate, especially in more mountainous landscapes, where the orthorectification process is the most challenging. To this end, the Landsat Calibration and Validation Team (Cal/Val) compared the Copernicus DEM (CopDEM) to the DEM that is currently used in Collection-2 processing (called “Collection-2 DEM”). NGS ground-surveyed and lidar-based ICESat-2 points were used, and the CopDEM shows improvement to be less than 1 m globally, except in Asia where the accuracy and resolution of the DEM were greater for the CopDEM compared to the Collection-2 DEM. Along with slightly improved accuracy, the CopDEM showed more consistent results globally due to its virtually seamless source and consistent creation methods throughout the dataset. While CopDEM is virtually seamless, having greater than 99% of their data coming from a single source (Tandem-X), there are significantly more voids in the higher elevations which were mostly filled with SRTM derivatives. The accuracy of the CopDEM fill imagery was also compared to the Collection-2 DEM and the results were very similar, showing that the choice of fill imagery used by CopDEM was appropriate. A qualitative assessment using terrain-corrected products processed with different DEMs and viewing them as anaglyphs to evaluate the DEMs proved useful for assessing orbital path co-registration. While the superiority of the CopDEM was not shown to be definitive by the qualitative method for many of the regions assessed, the CopDEM showed a clear advantage in Northern Russia, where the Collection-2 DEM uses some of the oldest and least accurate datasets in the compilation of the Collection-2 DEM. This paper presents results from the comparison study, along with the justification for proceeding with using the Copernicus DEM in future Landsat processing. As of this writing, the Copernicus DEM is planned to be used in Collection-3 processing, which is anticipated to be released no earlier than 2025.
This paper presents newly discovered candidate cave entrances into Martian near-surface lava tubes, volcano-tectonic fracture systems, and pit craters and describes their characteristics and exploration possibilities. These candidates are all collapse features that occur either intermittently along laterally continuous trench-like depressions or in the floors of sheer-walled atypical pit craters. As viewed from orbit, locations of most candidates are visibly consistent with known terrestrial features such as tube-fed lava flows, volcano-tectonic fractures, and pit craters, each of which forms by mechanisms that can produce caves. Although we cannot determine subsurface extents of the Martian features discussed here, some may continue unimpeded for many kilometers if terrestrial examples are indeed analogous. The features presented here were identified in images acquired by the Mars Odyssey's Thermal Emission Imaging System visible-wavelength camera, and by the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter's Context Camera. Select candidates have since been targeted by the High-Resolution Imaging Science Experiment. Martian caves are promising potential sites for future human habitation and astrobiology investigations; understanding their characteristics is critical for long-term mission planning and for developing the necessary exploration technologies.
Many coastal urban areas are prone to extreme pluvial flooding due to limitations in stormwater system capacity, with the additional potential for flooding compounded by storm surge, tides, and waves. Understanding and simulating these processes can improve prediction and flood risk management. Here, we adapt the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment Transport modeling framework (COAWST) to simulate pluvial flooding from post-tropical Cyclone Ida (2021) in the Jamaica Bay watershed of New York City (NYC). We modify the model to capture the volumetric effects of rainfall and parameterize soil infiltration and a stormwater conveyance system as the drainage rate. We generate a spatially continuous flood map of Ida with a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 20 cm when compared to high-water marks, useful for understanding Ida's impacts and subsequent mitigation planning. Results show that over 23 km 2 and 4621 buildings were flooded deeper than 0.3 m during Ida. Sensitivity analyses are used to study the broader risk from events like Ida (pluvial flooding) as well as potential compound (pluvial–coastal) flooding. Spatial shifting of the storm track within a typical 12 h forecast uncertainty reveals a worst-case scenario that increases this flooded area to 62 km 2 (5907 buildings). Shifting Ida's rainfall to coincide with high tide increases this flooded area by 1 km 2 , a relatively small change due to the lack of significant storm surge. The application of COAWST to this storm event addresses a broader goal of developing the capability to model compound pluvial–coastal flooding by simultaneously representing coastal storm processes such as rain, tide, waves, erosion, and atmosphere–wave–ocean interactions. The sensitivity analysis results underscore the need for detailed flood risk assessments, showing that Ida, already NYC's worst rain event, could have been even more devastating with slight shifts in the storm track.
Hasselblad and Nikon stereographic photographs taken from Skylab between 9 June 1973 and 1 February 1974 give synoptic plan views of several entire eruption clouds emanating from Sakura-zima volcano in Kagoshima Bay, Kyushu, Japan. Analytical plots of these stereographic pairs, studied in combination with meteorological data, indicate that the eruption clouds did not penetrate the tropopause and thus did not create a stratospheric dust veil of long residence time. A horizontal eddy diffusivity of the order of 106 cm2 s-1 and a vertical eddy diffusivity of the order of 105 cm2 s-1 were calculated from the observed plume dimensions and from available meteorological data. These observations are the first, direct evidence that explosive eruption at an estimated energy level of about 1018 ergs per paroxysm may be too small under atmospheric conditions similar to those prevailing over Sakura-zima for volcanic effluents to penetrate low-level tropospheric temperature inversions and, consequently, the tropopause over northern middle latitudes. Maximum elevation of the volcanic clouds was determined to be 3.4 km. The cumulative thermal energy release in the rise of volcanic plumes for 385 observed explosive eruptions was estimated to be 1020 to 1021 ergs (1013 to 1014 J), but the entire thermal energy release associated with pyroclastic activity may be of the order of 2.5 ?? 1022 ergs (2.5 ?? 1015 J). Estimation of the kinetic energy component of explosive eruptions via satellite observation and meteorological consideration of eruption clouds is thus useful in volcanology as an alternative technique to confirm the kinetic energy estimates made by ground-based geological and geophysical methods, and to aid in construction of physical models of potential and historical tephra-fallout sectors with implications for volcano-hazard prediction. ?? 1976.
The purpose of this workshop is to exchange information on on-going and soon-to-be-initiated whitebark pine research and management projects. By doing so we hope to encourage future work on this valuable species. We also hope to promote the use of consistent methods for evaluation and investigation of whitebark pine, and to provide avenues of collaboration. Speakers will present information on a variety of topics related to whitebark pine management and research. Featured presentation topics include anthropomorphic utilization of whitepark pine forests, whitebark pine natural regeneration, blister rust and the decline of whitebark pine, blister rust resistance studies, ecological mapping of the species, restoration and management projects, and survey/monitoring techniques. Information gained from these presentations may hopefully be used in the planning of future projects for the conservation of whitebark pine.
We assessed the utility of the recommended golden eagle ( Aquila chrysaetos ) survey methodology in the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 2013 Eagle Conservation Plan Guidance. We conducted 800-m radius, 1-hr point-count surveys broken into 20-min segments, during 2 sampling periods in 3 areas within the Intermountain West of the United States over 2 consecutive breeding seasons during 2012 and 2013. Our goal was to measure the influence of different survey time intervals and sampling periods on detectability and use estimates of golden eagles among different locations. Our results suggest that a less intensive effort (i.e., survey duration shorter than 1 hr and point-count survey radii smaller than 800 m) would likely be inadequate for rigorous documentation of golden eagle occurrence pre- or postconstruction of wind energy facilities. Results from a simulation analysis of detection probabilities and survey effort suggest that greater temporal and spatial effort could make point-count surveys more applicable for evaluating golden eagle occurrence in survey areas; however, increased effort would increase financial costs associated with additional person-hours and logistics (e.g., fuel, lodging). Future surveys can benefit from a pilot study and careful consideration of prior information about counts or densities of golden eagles in the survey area before developing a survey design. If information is lacking, survey planning may be best served by assuming low detection rates and increasing the temporal and spatial effort.
Executive Summary Glen Canyon Dam is located in the lower reaches of Glen Canyon National Recreation Area on the Colorado River, approximately 15 miles upriver from Grand Canyon National Park (fig. 1). In 1992, Congress passed and the President signed into law the Grand Canyon Protection Act (GCPA; title XVIII, sec. 1801?1809, of Public Law 102-575), which seeks ?to protect, mitigate adverse impacts to, and improve the values for which Grand Canyon National Park and Glen Canyon National Recreation Area were established.? The Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (GCDAMP) was implemented as a result of the 1996 Record of Decision on the Operation of Glen Canyon Dam Final Environmental Impact Statement to ensure that the primary mandate of the GCPA is met through advances in information and resources management (U.S. Department of the Interior, 1995). On November 3, 2006, the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) announced it would develop a long-term experimental plan environmental impact statement (LTEP EIS) for operational activities at Glen Canyon Dam and other management actions on the Colorado River. The purpose of the long-term experimental plan is twofold: (1) to increase the scientific understanding of the ecosystem and (2) to improve and protect important downstream resources. The proposed plan would implement a structured, longterm program of experimentation to include dam operations, potential modifications to Glen Canyon Dam intake structures, and other management actions such as removal of nonnative fish species. The development of the long-term experimental plan continues efforts begun by the GCDAMP to protect resources downstream of Glen Canyon Dam, including Grand Canyon, through adaptive management and scientific experimentation. The LTEP EIS will rely on the extensive scientific studies that have been undertaken as part of the adaptive management program by the U.S. Geological Survey?s (USGS) Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC), one of the four research stations within the USGS Southwest Biological Science Center. On April 10 and 11, 2007, at the behest of Reclamation, the GCMRC convened a workshop with scientific experts to identify one or more scientifically credible, long-term experimental options for Reclamation to consider for the LTEP EIS that would be consistent with the purpose and need for the plan. Workshop participants included government, academic, and private scientists with broad experience in the Colorado River in Grand Canyon and regulated rivers around the world. Resource managers and GCDAMP participants were also present on the second day of the workshop. In advance of the workshop, Reclamation and LTEP EIS cooperating agencies identified 14 core scientific questions. Workshop participants were asked to consider how proposed options would address these questions, which fall primarily into four areas: (1) conservation of endangered humpback chub (Gila cypha) and other high-priority biological resources, (2) conservation of sediment resources, (3) enhancement of recreational resources, and (4) preservation of cultural resources. A secondary objective of the workshop was the evaluation of four long-term experimental options developed by the GCDAMP Science Planning Group (SPG) (appendix B). The flow and nonflow treatments called for in the four experimental options were an important starting point for workshop discussions. At the beginning of the workshop, participants were provided with the final LTEP EIS scoping report prepared by Reclamation. Participants were also advised that Reclamation had committed to ?make every effortEto ensure that a new population of humpback chub is established in the mainstem or one or more of the tributaries within Grand Canyon? in the 1995 Operation of Glen Canyon Dam Final Environmental Impact Statement (U.S. Department of the Interior, 1995). This decision was consistent with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service?s 1995 bi
Drastic shifts in species distributions are a cause of concern for ecologists. Such shifts pose great threat to biodiversity especially under unprecedented anthropogenic and natural disturbances. Many studies have documented recent shifts in species distributions. However, most of these studies are limited to regional scales, and do not consider the abundance structure within species ranges. Developing methods to detect systematic changes in species distributions over their full ranges is critical for understanding the impact of changing environments and for successful conservation planning. Here, we demonstrate a centroid model for range-wide analysis of distribution shifts using the North American Breeding Bird Survey. The centroid model is based on a hierarchical Bayesian framework which models population change within physiographic strata while accounting for several factors affecting species detectability. Yearly abundance-weighted range centroids are estimated. As case studies, we derive annual centroids for the Carolina wren and house finch in their ranges in the U.S. We further evaluate the first-difference correlation between species’ centroid movement and changes in winter severity, total population abundance. We also examined associations of change in centroids from sub-ranges. Change in full-range centroid movements of Carolina wren significantly correlate with snow cover days (r = −0.58). For both species, the full-range centroid shifts also have strong correlation with total abundance (r = 0.65, and 0.51 respectively). The movements of the full-range centroids of the two species are correlated strongly (up to r = 0.76) with that of the sub-ranges with more drastic population changes. Our study demonstrates the usefulness of centroids for analyzing distribution changes in a two-dimensional spatial context. Particularly it highlights applications that associate the centroid with factors such as environmental stressors, population characteristics, and progression of invasive species. Routine monitoring of changes in centroid will provide useful insights into long-term avian responses to environmental changes.
Since 2002, the Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center Samples Repository has been supporting U.S. Geological Survey research by providing secure storage for geological, geochemical, and biological samples, organizing and actively inventorying these sample collections, and providing researchers access to these scientific collections for study and reuse. Over the years, storage facilities have changed, and new collections management strategies have been adapted as sample collections have grown and as research programs and focuses have shifted. The commitment of the samples repository to preserve and provide physical samples for future research, however, has remained the same. This report documents the collections management plan developed and implemented by the Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center Samples Repository to manage the center’s scientific collections.
Changes in future precipitation are of great importance to climate data users in South Florida. A recent U.S. Geological Survey workshop, “Increasing Confidence in Precipitation Projections for Everglades Restoration,” highlighted a gap between standard climate model outputs and the climate information needs of some key Florida natural resource managers. These natural resource managers (hereafter broadly defined as “climate data users”) need more tailored output than is commonly provided by the climate modeling community. This study responds to these user needs by outlining and testing an adaptable methodology to select output from ensemble climate‐model simulations based on user‐defined precipitation drivers, using statistical methods common across scientific disciplines. This methodology is developed to provide a “decision matrix” that guides climate data users to specify the subset of models most important to their work based on each user's season (winter, summer, and annual) and the condition (dry, wet, neutral, and no threshold events) of interest. The decision matrix is intended to better communicate the subset of models best representing precipitation drivers. This information could increase users' confidence in climate models as a resource for natural resource planning and can be used to direct future dynamical downscaling efforts. This methodology is based in dynamical processes controlling precipitation via remote and local teleconnections. We also suggest that future climate studies in South Florida include high‐resolution climate model runs (i.e., ocean eddy resolving) in conjunction with dynamical downscaling to adequately capture precipitation variability.
Forecast Mekong is a significant international thrust under the Delta Research and Global Observation Network (DRAGON) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and was launched in 2009 by the U.S. Department of State and the Foreign Ministers of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam under U.S. Department of State Secretary Hillary R. Clinton's Lower Mekong Initiative to enhance U.S. engagement with countries of the Lower Mekong River Basin in the areas of environment, health, education, and infrastructure. Since 2009, the USGS has worked closely with the U.S. Department of State; personnel from Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam; nongovernmental organizations; and academia to collect and use research and data from the Lower Mekong River Basin to provide hands-on results that will help decisionmakers in future planning and design for restoration, conservation, and management efforts in the Lower Mekong River Basin. In 2012 Forecast Mekong is highlighting the increasing cooperation between the United States and Lower Mekong River Basin countries in the areas of food and environmental security. Under the DRAGON, Forecast Mekong continues work in interactive data integration, modeling, and visualization system by initiating three-dimensional bathymetry and river flow data along with a pilot study of fish distribution, population, and migratory patterns in the Lower Mekong River Basin. When fully developed by the USGS, in partnership with local governments and universities throughout the Mekong River region, Forecast Mekong will provide valuable planning tools to visualize the consequences of climate change and river management.
A number of the constraints with which remote sensing must contend in crop studies are outlined. They include sensor, identification accuracy, and congruencing constraints; the nature of the answers demanded of the sensor system; and the complex temporal variances of crops in large areas. Attention is then focused on several methods which may be used in the statistical analysis of multidimensional remote sensing data. Crop discrimination for radar K-band imagery is investigated by three methods. The first one uses a Bayes decision rule, the second a nearest-neighbor spatial conditional probability approach, and the third the standard statistical techniques of cluster analysis and principal axes representation. Results indicate that crop type and percent of cover significantly affect the strength of the radar return signal. Sugar beets, corn, and very bare ground are easily distinguishable, sorghum, alfalfa, and young wheat are harder to distinguish. Distinguishability will be improved if the imagery is examined in time sequence so that changes between times of planning, maturation, and harvest provide additional discriminant tools. A comparison between radar and photography indicates that radar performed surprisingly well in crop discrimination in western Kansas and warrants further study.