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USGS2025

The importance of sampling design for unbiased estimation of survival using joint live-recapture and live resight models

Survival is a key life history parameter that can inform management decisions and basic life history research. Because true survival is often confounded with emigration from the study area, many studies are forced to estimate apparent survival (i.e., probability of surviving and remaining inside the study area), which can be much lower than true survival for highly mobile species. One method for estimating true survival is the Barker joint live-recapture/live-resight (JLRLR) model, which combines capture data from a study area (hereafter the ‘capture site’) with resighting data from a broader geographic area. This model assumes that live resights occur throughout the entire area where animals can disperse to and this assumption is often not met in practice. Here we use simulation to evaluate survival bias from a JLRLR model under study design scenarios that differ in the site selection for resights: global, random, fixed including the capture site, and fixed excluding the capture site. Simulation results indicate that fixed designs that included the capture site showed negative survival bias, whereas fixed designs that excluded the capture site exhibited positive survival bias. The magnitude of the bias was dependent on movement and survival, where scenarios with high survival and frequent movement had minimal bias. In an effort to help minimize bias, we developed a multistate version of the JLRLR and demonstrated reductions in survival bias compared to the single-state version for most designs. Our results suggest minimizing bias can be accomplished by: 1) using a random resight design when feasible if global sampling is not possible, 2) using the multistate JLRLR model when appropriate, 3) including the capture site in the resight sampling frame when possible, and 4) reporting survival as apparent survival if fixed sites are used for resight with the single state JLRLR model.

Peer Community Journal↗

USGS2006

Sampling blood from big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) in the field with and without anesthesia: Impacts on survival

Blood was collected from wild big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) with and without anesthesia in Fort Collins, Colorado in 2004 to assess the impacts of these procedures on short-term survival and 1-yr return rates. Short-term survival and 1-yr return rates after release were passively monitored using PIT tag detection hoops placed at selected buildings. Comparison of 14-day maximum likelihood survival estimates from bats not bled (142 adult females, 62 volant juveniles), and bats sampled for blood with anesthesia (96 adult females, 23 volant juveniles) and without anesthesia (112 adult females, 22 volant juveniles) indicated no adverse effects of either treatment (juveniles: X2=53.38, df=41, P=0.09; adults: X2=39.09, df=44, P=0.68). Return rates of bats one year after sampling were similar among adult female controls (75.4%, n=142, 95% CI=67.4-82.2%), females sampled for blood with anesthesia (83.0%, n=112, 95% CI=74.8-89.5%), and females sampled without anesthesia (87.5%, n=96, 95% CI=79.2-93.4%). Lack of an effect was also noted in 1-yr return rates of juvenile females. These data suggest that the use of anesthesia during sampling of blood has no advantages in terms of enhancement of survival in big brown bats. ?? Wildlife Disease Association 2006.

Journal of Wildlife Diseases↗

USGS2022

A novel regression method for harmonic analysis of time series

Harmonic analysis of time series is an important technique in remote sensing to reveal seasonal land surface dynamics. However, frequency selection in the harmonic analysis is often difficult because high-frequency components are useful for delineating seasonal dynamics but sensitive to noise and gaps in time series. On the other hand, it is challenging to obtain temporally continuous satellite data with high quality because of atmospheric contamination. We developed a novel regression method named Harmonic Adaptive Penalty Operator (HAPO) for harmonic analysis of unevenly distributed time series. We introduced a new penalty function to minimize unexpected fluctuations in the model, which can substantially reduce the overfitting issue of regression in time series with temporal gaps. Specifically, the new penalty function minimizes the length of the model curve and the value range difference between the model and the time series observations. We compared HAPO with three widely used regression methods (OLS: Ordinary Least Squares; LASSO: Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator; and Ridge) in different scenarios using Landsat time series data across the United States. First, we evaluated methods using the Landsat surface reflectance time series within a single year. HAPO showed low and consistent monthly Root Mean Square Deviation (RMSD) values, in which most of the time RMSD of predicted reflectance were less than 0.04. More importantly, HAPO showed consistent and less bias given varying density and irregularity of time series. Second, we evaluated methods using multi-year time series. HAPO was a better predictor of relatively short time series (< 4 years) with steady low RMSD values. When a longer time series ( 4 years) was used, all four methods showed similar RMSD values, but HAPO outperformed the other methods if there were temporal gaps. Therefore, for places with large seasonal observation gaps or for time series that are relatively short (less than 4 years), HAPO can provide more consistent and accurate results in harmonic analysis of time series.

ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing↗

USGS2023

Seasonal roost characteristics and fall behavior of coastal populations of Northern Myotis (Myotis septentrionalis)

Temperate bats exhibit seasonal and sex differences in resource selection and activity patterns that are influenced by ambient conditions. During fall, individuals face energetic trade-offs as they make choices relating to migration, mating, and hibernation that may diverge for populations throughout their range. However, research has largely focused on the summer maternity and winter hibernation seasons, whereas the prehibernation period remains comparatively understudied. Northern Myotis ( Myotis septentrionalis ) have experienced precipitous population declines from white-nose syndrome (WNS), leading to their protected status in the United States and Canada. Therefore, understanding their ecology throughout the year is paramount to inform conservation. We compared seasonal roosts and documented fall behaviors between study sites and sexes on 3 islands: Long Island (New York), Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket Island (Massachusetts). Between 2017 and 2020, we radio-tracked 54 individuals to analyze activity patterns and characterize fall roosts to compare with previously known summer roosts. Summer tree roosts were of smaller diameter, later stages of decay, and lower canopy closure than those used in fall. Both sexes selected trees of similar diameter and decay stage during fall. Anthropogenic roost use was documented in both seasons but use of anthropogenic structures was greater during fall and increased as the season progressed. Bats made short inter-roost movements with males traveling greater distances than females on average. Activity occurred until late November, with males exhibiting a longer active period than females. We tracked 23% of tagged bats to local hibernacula in subterranean anthropogenic structures, the majority of which were crawlspaces underneath houses. Use of anthropogenic structures for roosts and hibernacula may facilitate survival of this species in coastal regions despite the presence of WNS infections. Timing of restrictions on forest management activities for bat conservation may be mismatched based on prehibernation activity observed in these coastal populations, and the conservation of habitat surrounding anthropogenic roosts or hibernacula may be warranted if the structures themselves cannot be protected.

Massachusetts, New York↗

USGS1969

Use of flooded timber by waterfowl at the Montezuma National Wildlife Refuge

Waterfowl use of bottomland hardwood timber stands which were flooded and killed was studied at the Montezuma National Wildlife Refuge, Seneca Falls, New York, from 1962 to 1964. Comparisons of use were made among six habitat types containing dead timber, stumps, and no timber, and with and without emergent vegetation. An index to waterfowl use was derived by direct counts and by counts made with automatic cameras which photographed randomly selected plots in each habitat type. Movement between types was studied by observation of both marked and unmarked birds. The camera index of use showed that cut timber with emergent vegetation received the greatest overall use. Use was positively correlated with the proximity of the plot to emergent vegetation and nearest vegetative type boundary. A stand flooded for 7 years was used primarily by black ducks ( Anas rubripes ) and mallards ( A. platyrhynchos ). Use of stands flooded for 20 years was dominated by American widgeon ( Mareca americana ). Waterfowl spent more time resting than feeding in timbered areas, and more time feeding than resting in marsh areas. Young-of-the-year did not move between pools after they had reached an age of IIc (Gollop and Marshall 1954). Use by broods was greatest in areas near emergent vegetation. Flying birds used timbered areas during the daytime and non-timbered areas at night during fall. Flooded dead timber appeared to be attractive to waterfowl because it furnished abundant loafing sites.

New York↗

USGS1994

Functional response of wolves preying on barren-ground caribou in a multiple-prey ecosystem

1. We investigated the functional response of wolves (Canis lupus) to varying abundance of ungulate prey to test the hypothesis that switching from alternate prey to preferred prey results in regulation of a caribou (Rangifer tarandus) population at low densities. 2. We determined prey selection, kill rates, and prey abundance for four wolf packs during three 30-day periods in March 1989, March 1990, November 1990, and created a simple discrete model to evaluate the potential for the expected numerical and observed functional responses of wolves to regulate caribou populations. 3. We observed a quickly decelerating type II functional response that, in the absence of numerical response, implicates an anti-regulatory effect of wolf predation on barren-ground caribou dynamics. 4. There was little potential for regulation caused by the multiplicative effect of increasing functional and numerical responses because of presence of alternative prey. This resulted in high wolf:caribou ratios at low prey densities which precluded the effects of an increasing functional response. 5. Inversely density-dependent predation by other predators, such as bears, reduces the potential for predators to regulate caribou populations at low densities, and small reductions in predation by one predator may have disproportionately large effects on the total predation rate.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS2009

A review of plague persistence with special emphasis on fleas

Sylvatic plague is highly prevalent during infrequent epizootics that ravage the landscape of western North America. During these periods, plague dissemination is very efficient. Epizootics end when rodent and flea populations are decimated and vectored transmission declines. A second phase (enzootic plague) ensues when plague is difficult to detect from fleas, hosts or the environment, and presents less of a threat to public health. Recently, researchers have hypothesized that the bacterium (Yersinia pestis) responsible for plague maintains a continuous state of high virulence and thus only changes in transmission efficiency explain the shift between alternating enzootic and epizootic phases. However, if virulent transmission becomes too inefficient, strong selection might favor an alternate survival strategy. Another plausible non-exclusive hypothesis, best supported from Asian field studies, is that Y. pestis persists (locally) at foci by maintaining a more benign relationship within adapted rodents during the long expanses of time between outbreaks. From this vantage, it can revert to the epizootic (transmission efficient) form. Similarly, in the United States (US), enzootic plague persistence has been proposed to develop sequestered within New World rodent carriers. However, the absence of clear support for rodent carriers in North America has encouraged a broader search for alternative explanations. A telluric plague existence has been proposed. However, the availability of flea life stages and their hosts could critically supplement environmental plague sources, or fleas might directly represent a lowlevel plague reservoir. Here, we note a potentially pivotal role for fleas. These epizootic plague vectors should be closely studied with newer more exacting methods to determine their potential to serve as participants in or accomplices to a plague persistence reservoir.

Journal of Vector Borne Diseases↗

USGS2017

Improved efficiency of maximum likelihood analysis of time series with temporally correlated errors

Most time series of geophysical phenomena have temporally correlated errors. From these measurements, various parameters are estimated. For instance, from geodetic measurements of positions, the rates and changes in rates are often estimated and are used to model tectonic processes. Along with the estimates of the size of the parameters, the error in these parameters needs to be assessed. If temporal correlations are not taken into account, or each observation is assumed to be independent, it is likely that any estimate of the error of these parameters will be too low and the estimated value of the parameter will be biased. Inclusion of better estimates of uncertainties is limited by several factors, including selection of the correct model for the background noise and the computational requirements to estimate the parameters of the selected noise model for cases where there are numerous observations. Here, I address the second problem of computational efficiency using maximum likelihood estimates (MLE). Most geophysical time series have background noise processes that can be represented as a combination of white and power-law noise, 1 / f α "> 1 / f α 1/fα with frequency, f . With missing data, standard spectral techniques involving FFTs are not appropriate. Instead, time domain techniques involving construction and inversion of large data covariance matrices are employed. Bos et al. (J Geod, 2013 . doi: 10.1007/s00190-012-0605-0 ) demonstrate one technique that substantially increases the efficiency of the MLE methods, yet is only an approximate solution for power-law indices >1.0 since they require the data covariance matrix to be Toeplitz. That restriction can be removed by simply forming a data filter that adds noise processes rather than combining them in quadrature. Consequently, the inversion of the data covariance matrix is simplified yet provides robust results for a wider range of power-law indices.

Journal of Geodesy↗

USGS2015

Ungulate exclusion, conifer thinning and mule deer forage in northeastern New Mexico

The southwestern United States has experienced expansion of conifer species ( Juniperus spp. and Pinus ponderosa ) into areas of semi-arid grassland over the past century. The expansion of conifers can limit palatable forage and reduce grass and forb communities. Conifer species are sometimes thinned through hydraulic mulching or selective cutting. We assessed the effects of these treatments on mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) habitat in northeastern New Mexico to determine if conifer thinning improved cover of preferred forage species for mule deer in areas with and without ungulates. We measured plant cover and occurrence of preferred forage species in the summers of 2011 and 2012. An ongoing regional drought probably reduced vegetation response, with preferred forage species and herbaceous cover responding to conifer thinning or ungulate exclusion immediately following treatment, but not the following year. In 2011, areas that received thinning treatments had a higher abundance of preferred forage when compared to sites with no treatment. Grass coverage exhibited an immediate response in 2011, with ungulate exclosures containing 8% more coverage than areas without exclosures. The results suggest that conifer thinning and ungulate exclusion may elicit a positive response, however in the presence of drought; the positive effects are only short-term.

New Mexico↗

USGS2016

An empirical assessment of which inland floods can be managed

Riverine flooding is a significant global issue. Although it is well documented that the influence of landscape structure on floods decreases as flood size increases, studies that define a threshold flood-return period, above which landscape features such as topography, land cover and impoundments can curtail floods, are lacking. Further, the relative influences of natural versus built features on floods is poorly understood. Assumptions about the types of floods that can be managed have considerable implications for the cost-effectiveness of decisions to invest in transforming land cover (e.g., reforestation) and in constructing structures (e.g., storm-water ponds) to control floods. This study defines parameters of floods for which changes in landscape structure can have an impact. We compare nine flood-return periods across 31 watersheds with widely varying topography and land cover in the southeastern United States, using long-term hydrologic records (≥20 years). We also assess the effects of built flow-regulating features (best management practices and artificial water bodies) on selected flood metrics across urban watersheds. We show that landscape features affect magnitude and duration of only those floods with return periods ≤10 years, which suggests that larger floods cannot be managed effectively by manipulating landscape structure. Overall, urban watersheds exhibited larger (270 m 3 /s) but quicker (0.41 days) floods than non-urban watersheds (50 m 3 /s and 1.5 days). However, urban watersheds with more flow-regulating features had lower flood magnitudes (154 m 3 /s), but similar flood durations (0.55 days), compared to urban watersheds with fewer flow-regulating features (360 m 3 /s and 0.23 days). Our analysis provides insight into the magnitude, duration and count of floods that can be curtailed by landscape structure and its management. Our findings are relevant to other areas with similar climate, topography, and land use, and can help ensure that investments in flood management are made wisely after considering the limitations of landscape features to regulate floods.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS2002

Analysis and detection of the herbicides dimethenamid and flufenacet and their sulfonic and oxanilic acid degradates in natural water

Dimethenamid [2-chloro-N-(2,4-dimethyl-3-thienyl)-N-(2-methoxy-1-methylethyl)acetamide] and flufenacet [N-(4-fluorophenyl)-N-(1-methylethyl)-2-(5-(trifluoromethyl)-1,3,4- thiadiazol-2-yl)oxy] were isolated by C-18 solid-phase extraction and separated from their ethanesulfonic acid (ESA) and oxanilic acid (OXA) degradates during their elution using ethyl acetate for the parent compound, followed by methanol for the polar degradates. The parent compounds were detected using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry in selected-ion mode. The ESA and OXA degradates were detected using high-performance liquid chromatography-electrospray mass spectrometry (HPLC-ESPMS) in negative-ion mode. The method detection limits for a 123-mL sample ranged from 0.01 to 0.07 μg/L. These methods are compatible with existing methods and thus allow for analysis of 17 commonly used herbicides and 18 of their degradation compounds with one extraction. In a study of herbicide transport near the mouth of the Mississippi River during 1999 and 2000, dimethenamid and its ESA and OXA degradates were detected in surface water samples during the annual spring flushes. For flufenacet, the only detections at the study site were for the ESA degradates in samples collected at the peak of the herbicide spring flush in 2000. The low frequency of detections in surface water likely is due to dimethenamid and flufenacet being relatively new herbicides. In addition, detectable amounts of the stable degradates have not been detected in ground water.

Journal of Agricultural and Food Chemistry↗

USGS2003

An integrated analysis of the effects of past land use on forest herb colonization at the landscape scale

A framework that summarizes the direct and indirect effects of past land use on forest herb recolonization is proposed, and used to analyse the colonization patterns of forest understorey herbaceous species in a 360-ha mixed forest, grassland and arable landscape in the Dijle river valley (central Belgium). Fine-scale distribution maps were constructed for 14 species. The species were mapped in 15 946 forest plots and outside forests (along parcel margins) in 5188 plots. Forest stands varied in age between 1 and more than 224 years. Detailed land-use history data were combined with the species distribution maps to identify species-specific colonization sources and to calculate colonization distances. The six most frequent species were selected for more detailed statistical analysis. Logistic regression models indicated that species frequency in forest parcels was a function of secondary forest age, distance from the nearest colonization source and their interaction. Similar age and distance effects were found within hedgerows. In 199 forest stands, data about soils, canopy structure and the cover of competitive species were collected. The relative importance of habitat quality and spatio-temporal isolation for the colonization of the forest herb species was quantified using structural equation modelling (SEM), within the framework proposed for the effects of past land use. The results of the SEM indicate that, except for the better colonizing species, the measured habitat quality variables are of minor importance in explaining colonization patterns, compared with the combination of secondary forest age and distance from colonization sources. Our results suggest the existence of a two-stage colonization process in which diaspore availability determines the initial pattern, which is affected by environmental sorting at later stages.

Journal of Ecology↗

USGS2007

Contrasting water quality from paired domestic/public supply wells, central High Plains

Closely located domestic and public supply wells were sampled using identical sampling procedures to allow comparison of water quality associated with well type. Water samples from 15 pairs of wells with similar screened intervals completed in the central High Plains regional aquifer in parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas were analyzed for more than 200 water quality constituents. No statistically significant differences were observed between the concentrations of naturally-derived constituents (major ions, trace elements, and radon) in paired wells. However, differences in water quality between paired wells were observed for selected anthrepogenic compounds (pesticides and tritium), in that some public supply wells produced water that was more recently recharged and contained constituents derived from surface activities. The presence of recently recharged water and compounds indicative of anthrepogenic activities in some public supply wells was likely due to operational variations (pumping rate and pumping cycles), as demonstrated in a particle tracking simulation. Water containing surface-derived anthropogenic compounds from near the water table was more quickly drawn to high volume public supply wells (less than five years) than domestic wells (greater than 120 years) with small pumping rates. These findings indicate that water quality samples collected from different well types in the same area are not necessarily directly comparable. Sampling domestic wells provides the best broad-scale assessment of water quality in this aquifer setting because they are less susceptible to localized contamination from near the water table. However, sampiing public supply wells better represents the quality of the used resource because of the population served.

Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas↗

USGS2011

Changes in Selected Metals Concentrations from the Mid-1980s to the Mid-2000s in a Stream Draining the Picher Mining District of Oklahoma

After abandonment in the late 1960s, the Picher mining district of Oklahoma, once the largest source of lead and zinc in the world, continued to be affected by severe environmental degradation, with scattered subsidence and abundant toxic metals such as cadmium and lead seeping from flooded underground mine workings and seeping and running off from as much as 60 million tons of mine tailings remaining at the land surface. Water-quality data collected during the mid-1980s and the mid-2000s at the Tar Creek at 22nd Street Bridge in Miami, Oklahoma streamflow-gaging station (USGS number 07185095), located downstream from much of the district, indicate that total concentrations of iron, manganese, and zinc significantly decreased between the two sampling periods. Those water-quality improvements probably are due to a combination of reclamation activities and natural attenuation processes such as stabilization of exposed minerals in flooded underground mine workings, progressive wind and water erosion of the most readily erodible metalliferous particles from tailings, and colonization of volunteer plants that reduce physical erosion of soils and tailings.

Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma↗

USGS2020

Golden Eagle perch site use in the U.S. southern plains: Understanding electrocution risk

Electrocution on overhead electric systems is a primary cause of anthropogenic mortality for Golden Eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ) in North America. Distribution poles supporting energized equipment are most often involved in electrocutions, but the frequency with which Golden Eagles perch on pole supporting equipment is unknown. To resolve questions of perch frequency, and by extension, electrocution risk and mitigation prioritization, we used Google Earth to identify perch locations of GPS-transmittered preadult Golden Eagles, and specifically to identify perching on poles supporting transformers. We used transformer poles as a proxy for electrocution risk because transformers are visible in Google Earth imagery. We examined 105 randomly selected “perch events” for each of 10 Golden Eagles ( n = 1050 perch events total) tracked for a mean of 16 consecutive mo after fledging. The most frequently used perch sites were cliffs (24.6%), trees (21.2%), and hills (16.6%). Across individuals, 10.8% of perches were on overhead electric systems (individual ranges = 0.0–34.3%). Seven Golden Eagles perched on a distribution pole at least once. Of these, five perched on a transformer pole at least once. Perching on transformer poles occurred more frequently than expected given the proportion of transformer poles present (Yates’ χ 2 = 26.5, P < 0.001). Given the frequency of perching on transformer poles revealed in this study and the frequency of electrocution on equipment poles revealed in previous studies, the data suggest that electrocution mitigation measures should be focused on equipment poles. Future research should quantify perching across a wider variety of habitats and Golden Eagle age and sex to identify whether the patterns reported here occur more broadly.

Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, ↗

USGS2007

Effects of sorbate speciation on sorption of selected sulfonamides in three loamy soils

Sorption of sulfamethazine (SMN) and sulfathiazole (STZ) was investigated in three soils, a North Carolina loamy sand, an Iowa sandy loam, and a Missouri loam, under various pH conditions. A significant increase in the sorption coefficient ( K D ) was observed in all three soils, as the sulfonamides converted from an anionic form at higher pH to a neutral/cationic form at lower pH. Above pH 7.5, sulfonamides exist primarily in anionic form and have higher aqueous solubility and no cationic character, thereby consequently leading to lower sorption to soils. The effect of speciation on sorption is not the same for all sulfonamides; it is a function of the pH of the soil and the p K a of the sulfonamides. The results indicate that, for the soils under investigation, SMN has comparatively lower K D values than STZ. The pH-dependent sorption of sulfonamides was observed to be consistent in all three soils investigated. The K D values for each speciated form cationic, neutral, and anionic were calculated using an empirical model in which the species-specific sorption coefficients ( K D0 , K D1 , and K D2 ) were weighted with their respective fractions present at any given pH.

Journal of Agricultural and Food Chemistry↗

USGS2018

Risk factors associated with mortality of age-0 Smallmouth Bass in the Susquehanna River basin, Pennsylvania

Evidence of disease and mortalities of young of the year (age‐0) Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu has occurred during the late spring and summer in many parts of the Susquehanna River watershed since 2005. To better understand contributing factors, fish collected from multiple areas throughout the watershed as well as out‐of‐basin reference populations (Allegheny and Delaware River basins; experimental ponds, Kearneysville, West Virginia) were examined grossly and histologically for abnormalities. Tissue contaminant concentrations were determined from whole‐body homogenates, and water contaminant concentrations were estimated using time‐integrated passive samplers at selected sites. Observed or isolated pathogens included bacteria, predominantly motile Aeromonas spp. and Flavobacterium columnare ; largemouth bass virus, and parasites, including trematode metacercariae, cestodes, and the myxozoan Myxobolus inornatus . Although these pathogens were found in age‐0 Smallmouth Bass from multiple sites, no one pathogen was consistently associated with mortality. Chemicals detected in tissue included polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congeners, organochlorine, and current‐use pesticides. Pyraclostrobin, PCB congeners 170 and 187, cis ‐chlordane and trans ‐nonachlor were detected in all Susquehanna watershed samples but rarely in samples from the reference site. The findings support the idea that there is no single cause for disease of age‐0 Smallmouth Bass; rather the cumulative effects of co‐infections and potential immunomodulation by environmental stressors during a sensitive developmental life stage may lead to mortality. Identifying the most important risk factors will be necessary for more in‐depth analyses of individual stressors and better management of the habitat and fish populations.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS1990

Modelling streamwater chemistry as a mixture of soilwater end-members - An application to the Panola Mountain catchment, Georgia, U.S.A.

Streamwater chemistry at Panola Mountain research catchment, Georgia, U.S.A., is explained as a mixture of representative soilwater solutions that are considered to be temporally invariant to a first approximation. The selection of three end-members from all sampled soil waters is evaluated by comparing the observed and predicted streamwater concentration of six solutes (alkalinity, sulfate, sodium, magnesium, calcium and dissolved silica), which are assumed to mix conservatively, and by assessing the consistency of the implied hydrograph separation with the hydrological mechanisms that are believed to be operating in this catchment. The percentage of variation in the streamwater solute concentrations explained by the end-member mixing analysis (EMMA) ranges from 82 to >97%, and the hydrograph separation is, intuitively, physically reasonable. If the correct end-members have been identified, the streamwater chemical response to different levels of acidic deposition can be predicted by examining the change in each end-member under different loads; no hydrological model is required. If a traditional hydrochemical model, which is driven by rainfall quantity and quality, is desired, this analysis provides an indication of the model structure that would be necessary to reproduce both streamwater and soilwater chemistry.

Georgia↗