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At least 1,171 records · Page 65Linked to original sources
USGS2023

Updates to the regional groundwater-flow model of the New Jersey Coastal Plain, 1980–2013

A 21-layer three-dimensional transient groundwater-flow model of the New Jersey Coastal Plain was developed and calibrated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection to simulate groundwater-flow conditions during 1980–2013, incorporating average annual groundwater withdrawals and average annual groundwater recharge. This model is the third version of the New Jersey Coastal Plain regional groundwater-flow model that was initially developed as part of the USGS Regional Aquifer System Analysis (RASA) program. The model simulates groundwater flow in 11 aquifers and 10 intervening confining units of the New Jersey Coastal Plain to provide a regional overview of groundwater conditions. Averaged groundwater withdrawal data for 1980 to 2013 were used in the model. The 11 aquifers in New Jersey are, from shallowest to deepest, the Holly Beach water-bearing zone and the confined Cohansey aquifer in Cape May County; the Rio Grande water-bearing zone; the Atlantic City 800-foot sand; the Piney Point, Vincentown, and Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifers; the Englishtown aquifer system; and the upper, middle, and lower aquifers of the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy (PRM) aquifer system. The model was developed with the MODFLOW–2005 numerical code and the UCODE parameter estimation technique and calibrated using water-level and base-flow observations. A total of 3,453 water-level observations from 392 wells in New Jersey and 48 wells in Delaware from 1983 to 2013 were used in model calibration, which includes historical water-level trends for 29 wells in New Jersey during 1980–2013 presented in time-series hydrographs. In addition, derived observations also were included by calculating the vertical gradient at 33 pairs of nested observation wells in New Jersey, for a total of 210 observations. Changes in water levels over time were calculated for 134 wells in New Jersey and four wells in Delaware where water levels had varied substantially (approximately 10 ft) over the 30-year span of synoptic water-level measurements, for a total of 767 observations. A total of 1,485 base-flow observations in 47 surface-water basins in New Jersey from 1980 to 2013 were used in model calibration. Updates to the groundwater-flow model include the conversion to a fully three-dimensional model from the previous quasi-three-dimensional model. The new model will allow for potential future uses such as particle tracking or simulation of variable-density groundwater flow that could not be accomplished with earlier versions of the model. Spatially and temporally variable recharge estimated by using a soil-water balance model resulted in a spatially and temporally finer discretization. The Rio Grande water-bearing zone was added to the model as an aquifer layer to refine estimates of simulated flow in Atlantic and Cape May Counties, New Jersey. Hydrogeologic parameters were updated to include the confining units in New Jersey and corresponding hydrogeologic units in Delaware and eastern Maryland. The simulated water levels for the New Jersey Coastal Plain aquifers were compared to water-level measurements made during 1980–2013. The average residual for 4,243 water-level observations for New Jersey (simulated water levels minus measured water levels) is 1.5 feet. The simulated water-level contours for the confined aquifers for 2013 were compared to potentiometric surfaces produced from water levels measured during 2013. Simulated water levels generally matched the 2013 potentiometric surfaces of the confined aquifers in the areas of large withdrawals. Hydrographs of wells in the confined Coastal Plain aquifers of New Jersey show that simulated water levels generally match the magnitude and seasonal variation of the observed water levels. Hydrographs of base flow for the 47 streamgaging stations in New Jersey indicate that most of the simulated and estimated data match reasonably well. Groundwater withdrawals are an important resource for water supply, agricultural, industrial, and commercial needs in the New Jersey Coastal Plain. Groundwater withdrawals from the New Jersey Coastal Plain aquifers have resulted in persistent, regionally extensive cones of depression in the Englishtown aquifer system and Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer in Ocean and Monmouth Counties; Wenonah-Mount Laurel and upper, middle, and lower PRM aquifers in Camden County; and Atlantic City 800-foot sand in Atlantic County. Because hydrologic stresses and water-management needs change with time, periodic updates to the groundwater-flow model are required to provide current information about hydrologic conditions in the New Jersey Coastal Plain and to maintain its usefulness as a tool to manage water resources and develop water-resource strategies. The current updates will support the continued application of this model as a tool for evaluating the regional effects of changes in groundwater withdrawals and of current and potential future water-management strategies on groundwater levels in the New Jersey Coastal Plain.

New Jersey Coastal Plain↗
USGS2014

Deposit model for heavy-mineral sands in coastal environments

This report provides a descriptive model of heavy-mineral sands, which are sedimentary deposits of dense minerals that accumulate with sand, silt, and clay in coastal environments, locally forming economic concentrations of the heavy minerals. This deposit type is the main source of titanium feedstock for the titanium dioxide (TiO 2 ) pigments industry, through recovery of the minerals ilmenite (Fe 2+ TiO 3 ), rutile (TiO 2 ), and leucoxene (an alteration product of ilmenite). Heavy-mineral sands are also the principal source of zircon (ZrSiO 4 ) and its zirconium oxide; zircon is often recovered as a coproduct. Other heavy minerals produced as coproducts from some deposits are sillimanite/kyanite, staurolite, monazite, and garnet. Monazite [(Ce,La,Nd,Th)PO 4 ] is a source of rare earth elements as well as thorium, which is used in thorium-based nuclear power under development in India and elsewhere. The processes that form coastal deposits of heavy-mineral sands begin inland. High-grade metamorphic and igneous rocks that contain heavy minerals weather and erode, contributing detritus composed of sand, silt, clay, and heavy minerals to fluvial systems. Streams and rivers carry the detritus to the coast, where they are deposited in a variety of coastal environments, such as deltas, the beach face (foreshore), the nearshore, barrier islands or dunes, and tidal lagoons, as well as the channels and floodplains of streams and rivers in the coastal plain. The sediments are reworked by waves, tides, longshore currents, and wind, which are effective mechanisms for sorting the mineral grains on the basis of differences in their size and density. The finest-grained, most dense heavy minerals are the most effectively sorted. The result is that heavy minerals accumulate together, forming laminated or lens-shaped, heavy-mineral-rich sedimentary packages that can be several meters and even as much as tens of meters thick. Most economic deposits of heavy-mineral sands are Paleogene, Neogene, and Quaternary in age; some are modern coastal deposits. Superimposed on these basic processes of ore formation are a multitude of contributing and modifying factors, such as the following: Strong, sustained wave action moves sand from offshore to the shore, where the sand and heavy minerals are sorted by size and density. Mineral sorting occurs mainly on the upper part of the hightide swash (wave) zone. Fine-grained sands and heavy minerals on the foreshore can be remobilized by winds, forming heavy mineral-rich sand dunes behind the beach. Longshore drift combined with the geomorphology of the coast exert strong influence on the location of the heavy-mineral sands deposits. Sea level changes are a function of climatic changes, such as ice ages. Rises in regional sea level (transgression) and lowering of sea level (regression) strongly influence the deposition and preservation of heavy-mineral sands. The majority of heavy-mineral sands accumulation appears related to seaward progradation of the shore during regression events. Local faulting may affect the geomorphology of the coast, which controls the distribution of heavy mineral deposition in a coastal basin. Heavy mineral grains appear to weather primarily after their deposition in the coastal plain; this weathering is caused by groundwaters, humic acids, and other intrabasinal fluids. This weathering can enhance the TiO 2 content of ilmenite. Iron is leached from ilmenite during weathering, which thereby upgrades the TiO 2 content of the ilmenite, forming leucoxene. The resulting deposits of heavy-mineral sands can be voluminous. Individual bodies of heavy mineral-rich sands are typically about 1 kilometer wide and more than 5 kilometers long. Many heavy-mineral sands districts extend for more than 10 kilometers and contain several individual deposits that are spread along an ancient or modern strandline. Reported thicknesses of economic deposits range from 3 to 45 meters. Individual ore deposits typically comprise at least 10 megatonnes of ore (the total size of the individual sand-silt body), whose overall heavy-mineral content is 2 to greater than 10 percent. Heavy-mineral sands deposits are relatively easy to mine because they are weakly to poorly consolidated, and they are relatively easy to process. From a geoenvironmental standpoint, mining of heavy mineral-sands generates little or no acid or solubilized metals. However, environmental and human health concerns related to such mining include potential effects on indigenous flora and fauna, effects on local hydrology, and issues related to processing and storing thorium-bearing monazite, owing to its radioactivity. Regional exploration for deposits of heavy-mineral sands can utilize the analyses of stream sediment samples for Ti, Hf, the rare earth elements, Th, and U, and geophysical surveys, particularly radiometric (gamma-ray spectrometry for K, U, and Th) and magnetic methods. Geophysical anomalies may be small, and surveys are generally more successful when conducted close to sources of interest.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2012

Assessment of regional change in nitrate concentrations in groundwater in the Central Valley, California, USA, 1950s-2000s

A regional assessment of multi-decadal changes in nitrate concentrations was done using historical data and a spatially stratified non-biased approach. Data were stratified into physiographic subregions on the basis of geomorphology and soils data to represent zones of historical recharge and discharge patterns in the basin. Data were also stratified by depth to represent a shallow zone generally representing domestic drinking-water supplies and a deep zone generally representing public drinking-water supplies. These stratifications were designed to characterize the regional extent of groundwater with common redox and age characteristics, two factors expected to influence changes in nitrate concentrations over time. Overall, increasing trends in nitrate concentrations and the proportion of nitrate concentrations above 5 mg/L were observed in the east fans subregion of the Central Valley. Whereas the west fans subregion has elevated nitrate concentrations, temporal trends were not detected, likely due to the heterogeneous nature of the water quality in this area and geologic sources of nitrate, combined with sparse and uneven data coverage. Generally low nitrate concentrations in the basin subregion are consistent with reduced geochemical conditions resulting from low permeability soils and higher organic content, reflecting the distal portions of alluvial fans and historical groundwater discharge areas. Very small increases in the shallow aquifer in the basin subregion may reflect downgradient movement of high nitrate groundwater from adjacent areas or overlying intensive agricultural inputs. Because of the general lack of regionally extensive long-term monitoring networks, the results from this study highlight the importance of placing studies of trends in water quality into regional context. Earlier work concluded that nitrate concentrations were steadily increasing over time in the eastern San Joaquin Valley, but clearly those trends do not apply to other physiographic subregions within the Central Valley, even where land use and climate are similar.

California↗
USGS2018

Phenological mismatch in coastal western Alaska may increase summer season greenhouse gas uptake

High latitude ecosystems are prone to phenological mismatches due to climate change- driven advances in the growing season and changing arrival times of migratory herbivores. These changes have the potential to alter biogeochemical cycling and contribute to feedbacks on climate change by altering greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) through large regions of the Arctic. Yet the effects of phenological mismatches on gas fluxes are currently unexplored. We used a three-year field experiment that altered the start of the growing season and timing of grazing to investigate how phenological mismatch affects GHG exchange. We found early grazing increased mean GHG emission to the atmosphere despite lower CH 4 emissions due to grazing-induced changes in vegetation structure that increased uptake of CO 2 . In contrast, late grazing reduced GHG emissions because greater plant productivity led to an increase in CO 2 uptake that overcame the increase in CH 4 emission. Timing of grazing was an important control on both CO 2 and CH 4 emissions, and net GHG exchange was the result of opposing fluxes of CO 2 and CH 4 . N 2 O played a negligible role in GHG flux. Advancing the growing season had a smaller effect on GHG emissions than changes to timing of grazing in this study. Our results suggest that a phenological mismatch that delays timing of grazing relative to the growing season, a change which is already developing along in western coastal Alaska, will reduce GHG emissions to the atmosphere through increased CO 2 uptake despite greater CH 4 emissions.

Environmental Research Letters↗
USGS2020

A synthesis of patterns of environmental mercury inputs, exposure and effects in New York State

Mercury (Hg) pollution is an environmental problem that adversely affects human and ecosystem health at local, regional, and global scales—including within New York State. More than two-thirds of the Hg currently released to the environment originates, either directly or indirectly, from human activities. Since the early 1800s, global atmospheric Hg concentrations have increased by three- to eight-fold over natural levels. In the U.S., atmospheric emissions and point-source releases to waterways increased following industrialization into the mid-1980s. Since then, water discharges have largely been curtailed. As a result, Hg emissions, atmospheric concentrations, and deposition over the past few decades have declined across the eastern U.S. Despite these decreases, Hg pollution persists. To inform policy efforts and to advance public understanding, the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) sponsored a scientific synthesis of information on Hg in New York State. This effort includes 23 papers focused on Hg in atmospheric deposition, water, fish, and wildlife published in Ecotoxicology . New York State experiences Hg contamination largely due to atmospheric deposition. Some landscapes are inherently sensitive to Hg inputs driven by the transport of inorganic Hg to zones of methylation, the conversion of inorganic Hg to methylmercury, and the bioaccumulation and biomagnification along food webs. Mercury concentrations exceed human and ecological risk thresholds in many areas of New York State, particularly the Adirondacks, Catskills, and parts of Long Island. Mercury concentrations in some biota have declined in the Eastern Great Lakes Lowlands and the Northeastern Highlands over the last four decades, concurrent with decreases in water releases and air emissions from regional and U.S. sources. However, widespread changes have not occurred in other ecoregions of New York State. While the timing and magnitude of the response of Hg levels in biota varies, policies expected to further diminish Hg emissions should continue to decrease Hg concentrations in food webs, yielding benefits to the fish, wildlife, and people of New York State. Anticipated improvements in the Hg status of aquatic ecosystems are likely to be greatest for inland surface waters and should be roughly proportional to declines in atmospheric Hg deposition. Efforts that advance recovery from Hg pollution in recent years have yielded significant progress, but Hg remains a pollutant of concern. Indeed, due to this extensive compilation of Hg observations in biota, it appears that the extent and intensity of the contamination on the New York landscape and waterscape is greater than previously recognized. Understanding the extent of Hg contamination and recovery following decreases in atmospheric Hg deposition will require further study, underscoring the need to continue existing monitoring efforts.

New York↗
USGS2012

Holocene seasonal variability inferred from multiple proxy records from Crevice Lake, Yellowstone National Park, USA

A 9400-yr-old record from Crevice Lake, a semi-closed alkaline lake in northern Yellowstone National Park, was analyzed for pollen, charcoal, geochemistry, mineralogy, diatoms, and stable isotopes to develop a nuanced understanding of Holocene environmental history in a region of northern Rocky Mountains that receives both summer and winter precipitation. The limited surface area, conical bathymetry, and deep water (> 31 m) of Crevice Lake create oxygen-deficient conditions in the hypolimnion and preserve annually laminated sediment (varves) for much of the record. Pollen data indicate that the watershed supported a closed Pinus -dominated forest and low fire frequency prior to 8200 cal yr BP, followed by open parkland until 2600 cal yr BP, and open mixed-conifer forest thereafter. Fire activity shifted from infrequent stand-replacing fires initially to frequent surface fires in the middle Holocene and stand-replacing events in recent centuries. Low values of δ 18 O suggest high winter precipitation in the early Holocene, followed by steadily drier conditions after 8500 cal yr BP. Carbonate-rich sediments before 5000 cal yr BP imply warmer summer conditions than after 5000 cal yr BP. High values of molybdenum (Mo), uranium (U), and sulfur (S) indicate anoxic bottom-waters before 8000 cal yr BP, between 4400 and 3900 cal yr BP, and after 2400 cal yr BP. The diatom record indicates extensive water-column mixing in spring and early summer through much of the Holocene, but a period between 2200 and 800 cal yr BP had strong summer stratification, phosphate limitation, and oxygen-deficient bottom waters. Together, the proxy data suggest wet winters, protracted springs, and warm effectively wet summers in the early Holocene and less snowpack, cool springs, warm dry summers in the middle Holocene. In the late Holocene, the region and lake experienced extreme changes in winter, spring, and summer conditions, with particularly short springs and dry summers and winters during the Roman Warm Period (~ 2000 cal yr BP) and Medieval Climate Anomaly (1200–800 cal yr BP). Long springs and mild summers occurred during the Little Ice Age, and these conditions persist to the present. Although the proxy data indicate effectively wet summer conditions in the early Holocene and drier conditions in the middle and late Holocene, none point specifically to changes in summer precipitation as the cause. Instead, summer conditions were governed by multi-seasonal controls on effective moisture that operated over multiple time scales.

Montana↗
USGS2024

Going with the floe: Sea-ice movement affects distance and destination during Adélie penguin winter movements

Seasonal migration, driven by shifts in annual climate cycles and resources, is a key part of the life history and ecology of species across taxonomic groups. By influencing the amount of energy needed to move, external forces such as wind and ocean currents are often key drivers of migratory pathways exposing individuals to varying resources, environmental conditions, and competition pressures impacting individual fitness and population dynamics. Although wildlife movements in connection with wind and ocean currents are relatively well understood, movements within sea-ice fields have been much less studied, despite sea ice being an integral part of polar ecology. Adélie penguins ( Pygoscelis adeliae ) in the southern Ross Sea, Antarctica, currently exist at the southernmost edge of their range and undergo the longest (~12,000 km) winter migration known for the species. Within and north of the Ross Sea, the Ross Gyre drives ocean circulation and the large-scale movement of sea ice. We used remotely sensed sea-ice movement data together with geolocation-based penguin movement data to test the hypothesis that penguins use gyre-driven sea-ice movement to aid their migration. We found that penguins traveled greater distances when their movement vectors were aligned with those of sea ice (i.e., ice support) and the amount of ice support received depended on which route a penguin took. We also found that birds that took an eastern route traveled significantly further north in two of the 3 years we examined, coinciding with higher velocities of sea ice in those years. We compare our findings to patterns observed in migrating species that utilize air or water currents for their travel and with other studies showing the importance of ocean/sea-ice circulation patterns to wildlife movement and life history patterns within the Ross Sea. Changes in sea ice may have consequences not only for energy expenditure but, by altering migration and movement pathways, to the ecological interactions that exist in this region.

Ecology↗
USGS2025

Ecovoltaic solar energy development effects to microclimate, temperature, and soil moisture in panel array interspaces in a warm desert

Solar energy development is increasing in warm deserts of the southwestern United States, and ecovoltaics has emerged as an approach to maintain ecosystem function within solar facilities while meeting increasing regional energy demands. The Solar Gemini Project, located in the northeastern Mojave Desert, USA, is one of largest photovoltaic facilities incorporating an ecovoltaics approach, including novel installation practices to reduce disturbance to soil and vegetation and solar tracking bifacial photovoltaic panels to maximize energy generation. To further understand the influence of the facility on environmental conditions, we compared microclimate, temperature, and soil moisture in bare soil interspaces between panel arrays inside the facility to undisturbed desert in nearby areas outside the facility from June 2023–February 2025. Our comparisons included different seasons (summer versus winter), soil depth (shallow versus deep), and facility operation (inactive versus active panels with solar-tracking). We found lower solar radiation, wind speed, and evaporative demand inside the facility compared to outside the facility, with greater differences when panels were actively tracking. When panels were active, air temperature inside and outside the facility was similar on average, but was higher inside the facility during the day and lower at night. Soil surface temperature was lower inside the facility due to panel shading in the morning and evening, whereas soil temperature (0–15 cm) was consistently higher inside the facility. Soil moisture was higher inside the facility and did not drop to the low levels observed outside the facility. In total, we found lower evaporative demand, less heat loading, and higher soil moisture inside the Gemini facility, potentially benefitting flora and fauna in the harsh desert landscape. Yet, we also found daytime increases in air and soil surface temperature inside the facility, and persistent increases to soil temperature. These findings highlight the potentially positive and negative environmental changes associated with ecovoltaics solar energy development in warm deserts and provide evidence that can inform the optimization of solar photovoltaics design and management.

Nevada↗
USGS2016

Somatic growth dynamics of West Atlantic hawksbill sea turtles: a spatio-temporal perspective

Somatic growth dynamics are an integrated response to environmental conditions. Hawksbill sea turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) are long-lived, major consumers in coral reef habitats that move over broad geographic areas (hundreds to thousands of kilometers). We evaluated spatio-temporal effects on hawksbill growth dynamics over a 33-yr period and 24 study sites throughout the West Atlantic and explored relationships between growth dynamics and climate indices. We compiled the largest ever data set on somatic growth rates for hawksbills – 3541 growth increments from 1980 to 2013. Using generalized additive mixed model analyses, we evaluated 10 covariates, including spatial and temporal variation, that could affect growth rates. Growth rates throughout the region responded similarly over space and time. The lack of a spatial effect or spatio-temporal interaction and the very strong temporal effect reveal that growth rates in West Atlantic hawksbills are likely driven by region-wide forces. Between 1997 and 2013, mean growth rates declined significantly and steadily by 18%. Regional climate indices have significant relationships with annual growth rates with 0- or 1-yr lags: positive with the Multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation Index (correlation = 0.99) and negative with Caribbean sea surface temperature (correlation = −0.85). Declines in growth rates between 1997 and 2013 throughout the West Atlantic most likely resulted from warming waters through indirect negative effects on foraging resources of hawksbills. These climatic influences are complex. With increasing temperatures, trajectories of decline of coral cover and availability in reef habitats of major prey species of hawksbills are not parallel. Knowledge of how choice of foraging habitats, prey selection, and prey abundance are affected by warming water temperatures is needed to understand how climate change will affect productivity of consumers that live in association with coral reefs. Main conclusions The decadal declines in growth rates between 1997 and 2013 throughout the West Atlantic most likely resulted from warming waters through indirect negative effects on the foraging resources of hawksbills. These climatic influences are complex. With increasing temperatures, the trajectories of decline of coral cover and availability in reef habitats of major prey species of hawksbills are not parallel. Knowledge of how choice of foraging habitats, prey selection, and prey abundance are affected by warming water temperatures is needed to understand how climate change will affect productivity of consumers that live in association with coral reefs.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2010

Distribution patterns of wintering sea ducks in relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation and local environmental characteristics

Twelve species of North American sea ducks (Tribe Mergini) winter off the eastern coast of the United States and Canada. Yet, despite their seasonal proximity to urbanized areas in this region, there is limited information on patterns of wintering sea duck habitat use. It is difficult to gather information on sea ducks because of the relative inaccessibility of their offshore locations, their high degree of mobility, and their aggregated distributions. To characterize environmental conditions that affect wintering distributions, as well as their geographic ranges, we analyzed count data on five species of sea ducks (black scoters Melanitta nigra americana, surf scoters M. perspicillata, white-winged scoters M. fusca, common eiders Somateria mollissima, and long-tailed ducks Clangula hyemalis) that were collected during the Atlantic Flyway Sea Duck Survey for ten years starting in the early 1990s. We modeled count data for each species within ten-nautical-mile linear survey segments using a zero-inflated negative binomial model that included four local-scale habitat covariates (sea surface temperature, mean bottom depth, maximum bottom slope, and a variable to indicate if the segment was in a bay or not), one broad-scale covariate (the North Atlantic Oscillation), and a temporal correlation component. Our results indicate that species distributions have strong latitudinal gradients and consistency in local habitat use. The North Atlantic Oscillation was the only environmental covariate that had a significant (but variable) effect on the expected count for all five species, suggesting that broad-scale climatic conditions may be directly or indirectly important to the distributions of wintering sea ducks. Our results provide critical information on species-habitat associations, elucidate the complicated relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation, sea surface temperature, and local sea duck abundances, and should be useful in assessing the impacts of climate change on seabirds.

Oecologia↗
USGS2020

North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis) scenario planning summary report

Scenario planning provides a structured framework that can be used in strategic planning to help manage risk and prioritize actions (Schwartz 1996; Peterson et al. 2003). By providing a mechanism to communicate about complex situations, scenario planning encourages “out-of-the-box” thinking to help groups assess the impacts of plausible future scenarios on a target or resource. The outcomes from scenario planning can be used to improve management decisions, highlight data gaps, and/or identify future science priorities (Star et al. 2015; Borggaard et al. 2019). The application of scenario planning by resource management organizations (e.g., Borggaard et al. 2019; Runyon et al. 2020; Star et al. 2015) and the urgency surrounding the recovery of the critically endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis), led to a 2018 NOAA Fisheries scenario planning initiative for the species. In addition to complementing the many management and conservation efforts already underway, this initiative was designed to address the uncertainties around future anthropogenic and environmental changes and how these uncertainties may impact species recovery. We used a scenario planning framework to explore plausible future conditions for North Atlantic right whales and to develop possible options to address those conditions and improve recovery. Specific objectives were to: 1) better understand the challenges of right whale management in a changing climate; 2) identify potential research activities and recovery needs across the species’ range; 3) increase coordination and collaboration related to recovery efforts; and 4) explore how scenario planning can be used to support decisions. Using projected changes in ocean conditions coupled with anthropogenic stressors, we built four plausible future scenarios for right whales. These scenarios helped identify priority research and management actions that NOAA Fisheries and our partners can undertake to improve right whale recovery. We identified priority actions related to science, management, and partnerships including, but not limited to, 1) research on shifting spatial and temporal distributions of right whales and prey in a changing climate; 2) development of technology to further reduce impacts from human activities; 3) continuation of ongoing management efforts related to vessel traffic and fishing; and 4) continued maintenance of existing and development of new partnerships (e.g., industry engagement in problem solving). This scenario planning exercise helped prioritize North Atlantic right whale management and science needs in light of changing ocean conditions and anthropogenic impacts. It can also serve as a reference for how NOAA Fisheries and its partners can better prepare for multiple plausible futures while complementing other on-going initiatives. Priorities identified here can be considered in conjunction with implementation and monitoring actions such as with the Atlantic Large Whale Take Reduction Team (ALWTRT) and/or regional Right Whale U.S. Implementation Teams. The framework can also be repeated and improved upon as additional information becomes available to support future exercises.

Technical Memorandum↗
USGS2007

Recommendations for a barrier island breach management plan for Fire Island National Seashore, including the Otis Pike High Dune Wilderness Area, Long Island, New York

The U.S Army Corps of Engineers, New York District is developing engineering plans, including economic costs and benefits, for storm damage reduction along an 83 mile stretch of the coastal barrier islands and beaches on the south shore of Long Island, NY from Fire Island Inlet east to the Montauk Point headland. The plan, expected to include various alternatives for storm protection and erosion mitigation, is referred to as the Fire Island to Montauk Point Reformulation Plan (FIMP). These plans are expected to follow the Corps of Engineers’ Environmental Operating Principles striving for long term environmental sustainability and balance between environmental protection and protection of human health and property. Fire Island National Seashore (FIIS), a 19,579 acre unit of the National Park System includes a 32 mile long coastal barrier island located within the FIMP project area. A seven-mile section of the park, Otis Pike Fire Island High Dune Wilderness Area, is also a designated Federal Wilderness Area. The FIIS includes not only the barrier island and sand dunes, but also several islands, sand flats and wetlands landward of the barrier, submerged parts of Great South Bay shoreface, extending approximately 4,000 feet into the bay with the inner shelf region extending approximately 1,000 feet seaward of the Fire Island shoreline. The Fire Island barrier islands, a sand-starved system dominated by highly dynamic processes, are struggling to maintain their integrity in the face of sea-level rise and storms. Adding to the dilemma is that development on the barriers and the mainland has increased greatly during the past 50 years. As such, managers and decision makers in federal agencies, state agencies and local governments are challenged to balance tradeoffs between protection of lives and property, public access and long term conservation of natural habitats and processes and the plants and animals that depend on these habitats. National Park Service (NPS) policy stipulates that natural coastal processes be maintained to the greatest extent possible and not be impeded so as to conserve landforms, habitats and natural ecosystem resources that reply on the landforms and processes for long-term sustainability of the national park. Storms and associated processes such as waves, tides, currents and relative sea-level change are critical elements for the formation and evolution of these barrier islands, sand dunes, back-barrier sand flats and lagoons and vegetated wetlands. Processes such as wave run-up, overwash and barrier beaching, which occur during elevated storm surge are all necessary processes in enabling the efficient transfer of sediments, nutrients and marine water from the Atlantic Ocean across barriers and into Great South Bay. A large body of scientific data and information published over the past 50 years shows that such transfers of sediment and water from the ocean to the bays are essential for the long-term maintenance of the barrier island and back-bay systems and their biologically diverse habitats an d ecosystems. Current relative sea-level rise (~12 in/century) is chronic and pervasive in driving Long Island coastal change and with the likelihood of accelerating sea level rise in the near future, coastal hazards such as erosion, inundation, and storm surge flooding will increase, with corresponding increased risk to life and property on both Fire Island and on the mainland. In addition, the cumulative effects over the past century and more, both direct and indirect, of human impacts on the Long Island coast have altered the barrier beach and dunes and sediment transport processes. These impacts have likely increased the potential for breaching and increased risk to life and property on the coast and the mainland. Examples of direct impacts are: the stone jetties at Moriches, Shinnecock, and Fire Island tidal inlets and groin field structures at Westhampton that alter littoral processes, armoring and erosion-control stabilization of the headlandds such as the Montauk Point headlands, and deepening of navigation channels by dredging through the tidal inlets and in the bays. Indirect impacts that have a bearing on decisions to deal with breaching are: high-risk development of the barrier islands and low-lying areas of the mainland vulnerable to flooding, and the dredging of nearshore sand shoals for beach nourishment. The NPS strives to employ a coastal management framework for decision making that is based on assessment of the physical and ecological properties of the shoreline as well as human welfare and property. In order to protect developed areas of Fire Island and the mainland from loss of life, flooding, and other economic and physical damage, the NPS will likely need to consider allowing artificial closure of some breaches within the FIIS under certain circumstances. The decision by the NPS to allow breaches to evolve naturally and possibly close or to allow artificially closing breaches is based on four criteria: 1. Volumes of sediment transported landward and exchange of water and nutrients; 2. Elevated water levels and flooding risk to mainland life and property; 3. Engineering processes of artificial closure; and 4. Economic costs and benefits of artificial closure. This report for breach management presents protocols which specify when breach closures within the FIIS might be desirable and necessary, as well as provides recommendations for structural breach closure engineering operations which are indented to minimize negative impacts to the natural wilderness values and cultural resources within the FIIS, particularly the Otis Pike Wilderness Area. The goal of the plan is to strike a balance between protecting natural resources and allowing natural processes to operate and avoiding loss of life and excessive property damage.

New York↗
USGS2019

Chemical and physical controls on mercury source signatures in stream fish from the northeastern United States

Streams in the northeastern U.S. receive mercury (Hg) in varying proportions from atmospheric deposition and legacy point sources, making it difficult to attribute shifts in fish concentrations directly back to changes in Hg source management. Mercury stable isotope tracers were utilized to relate sources of Hg to co-located fish and bed sediments from 23 streams across a forested to urban-industrial land-use gradient within this region. Mass-dependent isotopes (δ202Hg) in prey and game fish at forested sites were depleted (medians -0.95 and -0.83 ‰, respectively) in comparison to fish from urban-industrial settings (medians -0.26 and -0.38 ‰, respectively); the forested site group also had higher prey fish Hg concentrations. The separation of Hg isotope signatures in fish was strongly related to in-stream and watershed land-use indicator variables. Fish isotopes were strongly correlated with bed sediment isotopes, but the comparison of isotopic composition between fish and sediment was variable due to differing ecosystem-specific drivers controlling the extent of MeHg formation. The multivariable approach of analyzing watershed characteristics and stream chemistry reveals that the Hg isotope composition in fish is linked to current and historic Hg sources in the northeastern U.S. and can be used to trace bioaccumulated Hg.

Environmental Science & Technology↗
USGS1996

A test of vegetation-related indicators of wetland quality in the prairie pothole region

This study was part of an effort by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to quantitatively assess the environmental quality or 'health' of wetland resources on regional and national scales. During a two-year pilot study, we tested selected indicators of wetland quality in the U.S. portion of the prairie pothole region (PPR). We assumed that the amount of cropland versus non-cropland (mostly grassland) in the plots containing these basins was a proxy for their quality. We then tested indicators by their ability to discriminate between wetlands at the extremes of that proxy. Amounts of standing dead vegetation were greater in zones of greater water permanence. Depth of litter was greater in zones of greater water permanence and in zones of basins in poor-quality watersheds. Amounts of unvegetated bottom were greater in basins in poor-quality watersheds; lesser amounts occurred in all wetlands during a wetter year. Greater amounts of open water occurred during a wetter year and in zones of greater water permanence. When unadjusted for areas (ha) of communities, plant taxon richness was higher in wet-meadow and shallow-marsh zones in good-quality watersheds than in similar zones in poor-quality watersheds. Wet-meadow zones in good-quality watersheds had greater numbers of native perennials than those in poor-quality watersheds. This relation held when we eliminated all communities in good-quality watersheds larger than the largest communities in poor-quality watersheds from the data set. We conclude that although amounts of unvegetated bottom and plant taxon richness in wet-meadow zones were useful indicators of wetland quality during our study, the search for additional such indicators should continue. The value of these indicators may change with the notoriously unstable hydrological conditions in the PPR. Most valuable would be indicators that could be photographed or otherwise remotely sensed and would remain relatively stable under various hydrological conditions. An ideal set of indicators could detect the absence of stressors, as well as the presence of structures or functions, of known value to major groups of organisms.

Journal of Aquatic Ecosystem Health↗
USGS2016

Using large-scale flow experiments to rehabilitate Colorado River ecosystem function in Grand Canyon: Basis for an adaptive climate-resilient strategy

Adaptive management of Glen Canyon Dam is improving downstream resources of the Colorado River in Glen Canyon National Recreation Area and Grand Canyon National Park. The Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (AMP), a federal advisory committee of 25 members with diverse special interests tasked to advise the U.S. Department of the Interior), was established in 1997 in response to the 1992 Grand Canyon Protection Act. Adaptive management assumes that ecosystem responses to management policies are inherently complex and unpredictable, but that understanding and management can be improved through monitoring. Best known for its high-flow experiments intended to benefit physical and biological resources by simulating one aspect of pre-dam conditions—floods, the AMP promotes collaboration among tribal, recreation, hydropower, environmental, water and other natural resource management interests. Monitoring has shown that high flow experiments move limited new tributary sand inputs below the dam from the bottom of the Colorado River to shorelines; rebuilding eroded sandbars that support camping areas and other natural and cultural resources. Spring-timed high flows have also been shown to stimulate aquatic productivity by disturbing the river bed below the dam in Glen Canyon. Understanding about how nonnative tailwater rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ), and downstream endangered humpback chub ( Gila cypha ) respond to dam operations has also increased, but this learning has mostly posed “surprise” adaptation opportunities to managers. Since reoperation of the dam to Modified Low Fluctuating Flows in 1996, rainbow trout now benefit from more stable daily flows and high spring releases, but possibly at a risk to humpback chub and other native fishes downstream. In contrast, humpback chub have so far proven robust to all flows, and native fish have increased under the combination of warmer river temperatures associated with reduced storage in Lake Powell, and a system-wide reduction in trout from 2000-06, possibly due to several years of natural reproduction under limited food supply. Uncertainties about dam operations and ecosystem responses remain, including how native and nonnative fish will interact and respond to possible increased river temperatures under drier basin conditions. Ongoing assessment of operating policies by the AMP’s diverse stakeholders represents a major commitment to the river’s valued resources, while surprise learning opportunities can also help identify a resilient climate-change strategy for co-managing nonnative and endangered native fish, sandbar habitats and other river resources in a region with already complex and ever-increasing water demands.

Arizona↗
USGS2023

Trends in tree cover change over three decades related to interannual climate variability and wildfire in California

The U.S. State of California has experienced frequent drought events, hotter temperatures and other disruptions to the climate system whose effects on ecosystems have been widely reported in recent decades. Studies primarily confined to specific vegetation communities or species, individual drought incidents, or analysis over a relatively short intervals, has limited our understanding of the broad-scale effects on tree cover and the spatiotemporal variability of effects across broader regions. We focused analysis on multi-annual land cover and land surface change to assess patterns and trends in tree cover loss in tree-dominated Californian ecoregions from 1986 to 2019. The top three years of total tree cover loss for the state were 2018 (1901 km 2 ), 2015 (1556 km 2 ), and 2008 (1549 km 2 ). Overall, annual tree cover loss had upward trends. Tree cover loss rapidly surged later in the study period and was apparently driven by climate stress and wildfires. Underlying geographic variability was apparent in both non-fire and fire-related tree cover loss that sharply increased during hotter multi-year droughts. The increasingly hotter and drier climate conditions were associated with significant increases in fire-induced mortality. Our findings indicate that a possible effect of future hotter and drier climate would lead to further tree cover loss, thereby endangering California's ecosystem goods and services. Geographic variability in tree cover trends indicates that ecoregion-specific mitigation and adaptation strategies would be useful to conserve the region's forest resources. Such strategies may benefit from consideration of historical disturbances, ecoregion's sensitivity to disturbance types, as well as potential ecoregion-specific climate-vegetation-fire feedbacks.

California↗
USGS2023

Maps of active layer thickness in northern Alaska by upscaling P-band polarimetric synthetic aperture radar retrievals

Extensive, detailed information on the spatial distribution of active layer thickness (ALT) in northern Alaska and how it evolves over time could greatly aid efforts to assess the effects of climate change on the region and also help to quantify greenhouse gas emissions generated due to permafrost thaw. For this reason, we have been developing high-resolution maps of ALT throughout northern Alaska. The maps are produced by upscaling from high-resolution swaths of estimated ALT retrieved from airborne P-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images collected for three different years. The upscaling was accomplished by using hundreds of thousands of randomly selected samples from the SAR-derived swaths of ALT to train a machine learning regression algorithm supported by numerous spatial data layers. In order to validate the maps, thousands of randomly selected samples of SAR-derived ALT were excluded from the training in order to serve as validation pixels; error performance calculations relative to these samples yielded root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) of 7.5–9.1 cm, with bias errors of magnitude under 0.1 cm. The maps were also compared to ALT measurements collected at a number of in situ test sites; error performance relative to the site measurements yielded RMSEs of approximately 11–12 cm and bias of 2.7–6.5 cm. These data are being used to investigate regional patterns and underlying physical controls affecting permafrost degradation in the tundra biome.

Environmental Research Letters↗
USGS2008

Coherent changes in relative C4 plant productivity and climate during the late Quaternary in the North American Great Plains

Evolution of the mixed and shortgrass prairie of the North American Great Plains is poorly understood because of limited proxies available for environmental interpretations. Buried soils in the Great Plains provide a solution to the problem because they are widespread both spatially and temporally with their organic reservoirs serving as a link to the plants than once grew on them. Through stable carbon isotopic analysis of soil organic carbon (??13C), the percent carbon from C4 plants (%C4) can be ascertained. Because C4 plants are primarily warm season grasses responding positively to summer temperature, their representation has the added advantage of serving as a climate indicator. To better understand grassland and climate dynamics in the Great Plains during the last 12 ka (ka=1000 radiocarbon years) we developed an isotopic standardization technique by: determining the difference in buried soil ??13C and modern soil ??13C expected for that latitude (????13C), and transferring the ????13C to ??%C4 (% C4) using mass balance calculations. Our analysis reveals two isotopic stages in the mixed and shortgrass prairie of the Great Plains based on trends in ??%C4. In response to orbital forcing mechanisms, ??%C4 was persistently below modern in the Great Plains between 12 and 6.7 ka (isotopic stage II) evidently because of the cooling effect of the Laurentide ice sheet and proglacial lakes in northern latitudes, and glacial meltwater pulses cooling the Gulf of Mexico and North Atlantic Ocean. The ??%C4 after 6.7 ka (isotopic stage I) increased to modern levels as conditioned by the outflow of warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and dry incursions from the west that produced periodic drought. At the millennial-scale, time series analysis demonstrates that ??%C4 oscillated with 0.6 and 1.8 ka periodicities, possibly governed by variations in solar irradiance. Our buried soil isotopic record correlates well with other environmental proxy from the Great Plains and surrounding regions. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗