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USGS2013

Recent lake ice-out phenology within and among lake districts of Alaska, U.S.A.

The timing of ice-out in high latitudes is a fundamental threshold for lake ecosystems and an indicator of climate change. In lake-rich regions, the loss of ice cover also plays a key role in landscape and climatic processes. Thus, there is a need to understand lake ice phenology at multiple scales. In this study, we observed ice-out timing on 55 large lakes in 11 lake districts across Alaska from 2007 to 2012 using satellite imagery. Sensor networks in two lake districts validated satellite observations and provided comparison with smaller lakes. Over this 6 yr period, the mean lake ice-out for all lakes was 27 May and ranged from 07 May in Kenai to 06 July in Arctic Coastal Plain lake districts with relatively low inter-annual variability. Approximately 80% of the variation in ice-out timing was explained by the date of 0°C air temperature isotherm and lake area. Shoreline irregularity, watershed area, and river connectivity explained additional variation in some districts. Coherence in ice-out timing within the lakes of each district was consistently strong over this 6 yr period, ranging from r-values of 0.5 to 0.9. Inter-district analysis of coherence also showed synchronous ice-out patterns with the exception of the two arctic coastal districts where ice-out occurs later (June–July) and climatology is sea-ice influenced. These patterns of lake ice phenology provide a spatially extensive baseline describing short-term temporal variability, which will help decipher longer term trends in ice phenology and aid in representing the role of lake ice in land and climate models in northern landscapes.

Alaska↗

USGS2015

Early-Holocene warming in Beringia and its mediation by sea-level and vegetation changes

Arctic land-cover changes induced by recent global climate change (e.g., expansion of woody vegetation into tundra and effects of permafrost degradation) are expected to generate further feedbacks to the climate system. Past changes can be used to assess our understanding of feedback mechanisms through a combination of process modeling and paleo-observations. The subcontinental region of Beringia (northeastern Siberia, Alaska, and northwestern Canada) was largely ice-free at the peak of deglacial warming and experienced both major vegetation change and loss of permafrost when many arctic regions were still ice covered. The evolution of Beringian climate at this time was largely driven by global features, such as the amplified seasonal cycle of Northern Hemisphere insolation and changes in global ice volume and atmospheric composition, but changes in regional land-surface controls, such as the widespread development of thaw lakes, the replacement of tundra by deciduous forest or woodland, and the flooding of the Bering–Chukchi land bridge, were probably also important. We examined the sensitivity of Beringia's early Holocene climate to these regional-scale controls using a regional climate model (RegCM). Lateral and oceanic boundary conditions were provided by global climate simulations conducted using the GENESIS V2.01 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) with a mixed-layer ocean. We carried out two present-day simulations of regional climate – one with modern and one with 11 ka geography – plus another simulation for 6 ka. In addition, we performed five ~ 11 ka climate simulations, each driven by the same global AGCM boundary conditions: (i) 11 ka Control , which represents conditions just prior to the major transitions (exposed land bridge, no thaw lakes or wetlands, widespread tundra vegetation), (ii) sea-level rise, which employed present-day continental outlines, (iii) vegetation change, with deciduous needleleaf and deciduous broadleaf boreal vegetation types distributed as suggested by the paleoecological record, (iv) thaw lakes, which used the present-day distribution of lakes and wetlands, and (v) post-11 ka All , incorporating all boundary conditions changed in experiments (ii)–(iv). We find that regional-scale controls strongly mediate the climate responses to changes in the large-scale controls, amplifying them in some cases, damping them in others, and, overall, generating considerable spatial heterogeneity in the simulated climate changes. The change from tundra to deciduous woodland produces additional widespread warming in spring and early summer over that induced by the 11 ka insolation regime alone, and lakes and wetlands produce modest and localized cooling in summer and warming in winter. The greatest effect is the flooding of the land bridge and shelves, which produces generally cooler conditions in summer but warmer conditions in winter and is most clearly manifest on the flooded shelves and in eastern Beringia. By 6 ka continued amplification of the seasonal cycle of insolation and loss of the Laurentide ice sheet produce temperatures similar to or higher than those at 11 ka, plus a longer growing season.

Alaska↗

USGS2018

Placing the Common Era in a Holocene context: Millennial to centennial patterns and trends in the hydroclimate of North America over the past 2000 years

A synthesis of 93 hydrologic records from across North and Central America, and adjacent tropical and Arctic islands, reveals centennial to millennial trends in the regional hydroclimates of the Common Era (CE; past 2000 years). The hydrological records derive from materials stored in lakes, bogs, caves, and ice from extant glaciers, which have the continuity through time to preserve low-frequency ( > 100 year) climate signals that may extend deeper into the Holocene. The most common pattern, represented in 46 (49 %) of the records, indicates that the centuries before 1000 CE were drier than the centuries since that time. Principal component analysis indicates that millennial-scale trends represent the dominant pattern of variance in the southwestern US, northeastern US, mid-continent, Pacific Northwest, Arctic, and tropics, although not all records within a region show the same direction of change. The Pacific Northwest and the southernmost tier of the tropical sites tended to dry toward present, as many other areas became wetter than before. In 22 records (24 %), the Medieval Climate Anomaly period (800–1300 CE) was drier than the Little Ice Age (1400–1900 CE), but in many cases the difference was part of the longer millennial-scale trend, and, in 25 records (27 %), the Medieval Climate Anomaly period represented a pluvial (wet) phase. Where quantitative records permitted a comparison, we found that centennial-scale fluctuations over the Common Era represented changes of 3–7 % in the modern interannual range of variability in precipitation, but the accumulation of these long-term trends over the entirety of the Holocene caused recent centuries to be significantly wetter, on average, than most of the past 11 000 years.

Climate of the Past↗

USGS2024

Geolocators, stable isotopes, and citizen science identify migratory timing, route, and spring molt of Smith’s Longspurs

Climate change is having a disproportionate impact on the Arctic. For Arctic breeding birds, basic knowledge of their annual cycle, specifically the timing, route, and movement behavior of migration, is needed to understand when and where populations may experience threats. We used a combination of geolocators and stable isotope analysis to identify route and timing of migration in Smith’s Longspurs ( Calcarius pictus ) that breed in Alaska’s Brooks Range. We trapped males on their breeding grounds from 2011 to 2014 and collected head feathers for stable isotopes of hydrogen (δ²H). We deployed 22 geolocators on a subset of individuals and retrieved four, which all overwintered in southern Texas. Individual start dates for fall migration based on geolocators were more variable than for the spring, and individuals were highly mobile while on their wintering grounds. Geolocators and stable isotope values were comparable across years and indicated that birds from the Brooks Range undergo their pre-nuptial molt in central Canada. We compared geolocator and stable isotope inferred locations to observations submitted to e-Bird and found that longspurs were distributed farther south during the winter months, but farther north during the spring than most eBird observations. Concurrent deployments of geolocator tags across Smith’s Longspurs’ breeding range would clarify whether migratory behaviors and routes are population-specific or shared widely across breeding locations.

Avian Conservation and Ecology↗

USGS2018

Alaska

Alaska is the largest state in the Nation, almost one-fifth the size of the combined lower 48 United States, and is rich in natural capital resources. Alaska is often identified as being on the front lines of climate change since it is warming faster than any other state and faces a myriad of issues associated with a changing climate. The cost of infrastructure damage from a warming climate is projected to be very large, potentially ranging from $110 to $270 million per year, assuming timely repair and maintenance. Although climate change does and will continue to dramatically transform the climate and environment of the Arctic, proactive adaptation in Alaska has the potential to reduce costs associated with these impacts. This includes the dissemination of several tools, such as guidebooks to support adaptation planning, some of which focus on Indigenous communities. While many opportunities exist with a changing climate, economic prospects are not well captured in the literature at this time. As the climate continues to warm, there is likely to be a nearly sea ice-free Arctic during the summer by mid-century. Ocean acidification is an emerging global problem that will intensify with continued carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and negatively affects organisms. Climate change will likely affect management actions and economic drivers, including fisheries, in complex ways. The use of multiple alternative models to appropriately characterize uncertainty in future fisheries biomass trajectories and harvests could help manage these challenges. As temperature and precipitation increase across the Alaska landscape, physical and biological changes are also occurring throughout Alaska’s terrestrial ecosystems. Degradation of permafrost is expected to continue, with associated impacts to infrastructure, river and stream discharge, water quality, and fish and wildlife habitat. Longer sea ice-free seasons, higher ground temperatures, and relative sea level rise are expected to exacerbate flooding and accelerate erosion in many regions, leading to the loss of terrestrial habitat in the future and in some cases requiring entire communities or portions of communities to relocate to safer terrain. The influence of climate change on human health in Alaska can be traced to three sources: direct exposures, indirect effects, and social or psychological disruption. Each of these will have different manifestations for Alaskans when compared to residents elsewhere in the United States. Climate change exerts indirect effects on human health in Alaska through changes to water, air, and soil and through ecosystem changes affecting disease ecology and food security, especially in rural communities. Alaska’s rural communities are predominantly inhabited by Indigenous peoples who may be disproportionately vulnerable to socioeconomic and environmental change; however, they also have rich cultural traditions of resilience and adaptation. The impacts of climate change will likely affect all aspects of Alaska Native societies, from nutrition, infrastructure, economics, and health consequences to language, education, and the communities themselves. The profound and diverse climate-driven changes in Alaska’s physical environment and ecosystems generate economic impacts through their effects on environmental services. These services include positive benefits directly from ecosystems (for example, food, water, and other resources), as well as services provided directly from the physical environment (for example, temperature moderation, stable ground for supporting infrastructure, and smooth surface for overland transportation). Some of these effects are relatively assured and in some cases are already occurring. Other impacts are highly uncertain, due to their dependence on the structure of global and regional economies and future human alterations to the environment decades into the future, but they could be large. In Alaska, a range of adaptations to changing climate and related environmental conditions are underway and others have been proposed as potential actions, including measures to reduce vulnerability and risk, as well as more systemic institutional transformation.

Report↗

USGS2004

The role of fire and fire management in the invasion of nonnative plants

Spacecraft imagery, especially from the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration's Improved TIROS (Television Infra-Red Observational Satellite) Operational Satellites, permits timely evaluations of snow and ice conditions encountered by arctic nesting geese. Imagery from the TIROS satellite for 5 wide]y scattered locations in arctic North America was obtained for three 3-day intervals in June 1973 and 1974. These pictures were used to expand fragmentary habitat data available from ground observations. Late disappearance of snow and ice may prevent or retard nesting effort and reproductive success. Our immediate aim is to recognize years of catastrophic or very good production; however, supporting information from ground studies, LANDSAT imagery, analyses of banding data, and studies of age ratios in popu]ations and harvests eventua]]y may permit assessment of relative reproductive success. Satellite images from both Multi-Spectral Scanner and Very High Resolution Radiomder sensors were first used as management tools for consideration in setting the U.S. and Canadian regulations for the 1975-76 goose hunting season. Preliminary age ratio data from field observations and harvests substantiated the prediction of good production during the 1975 breeding season.

Park Science↗

USGS1982

Measurements of fall migrant peregrine falcons from Texas and New Jersey

Three subspecies of Peregrine Falcons (Falco peregrinus) breed in North America: F. p. anatum, formerly bred in all eco-geographic regions of North America south of the Arctic tundra, except for the immediate vicinity of the northwest Pacific Coast; F. p. tundrius breeds in the Arctic tundra; and F. p. pealei, a relatively sedentary form, occupies the region of the northwest Pacific coast excluded from the range of F. p. anatum (Fyfe et al. 1976). Compared with tundrius, anatum is larger and darker, and the white auricular area is less extensive in proportion to the black malar stripe (White 1968a). This paper presents morphological information from two migrant populations. Also, measurements are compared with F. p. tundrius described by White (1968a,b), although shrinkage in study skins (the source of White's measurements) was recently documented (Fjelds• 1980) and confounds direct comparison.

Texas, New Jersey↗

USGS1997

An example of endurance in an old wolf, Canis lupus

An 11 to 13-year-old Arctic Wolf (Canis lupus arctos) was observed chasing a young Arctic Hare (Lepus arcticus) for 6 to 7 minutes and catching it. This provides an example of the degree of endurance of which an old wolf is capable.

Canadian Field-Naturalist↗

USGS2009

Rebuttal of "Polar bear population forecasts: a public-policy forecasting audit"

Observed declines in the Arctic sea ice have resulted in a variety of negative effects on polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ). Projections for additional future declines in sea ice resulted in a proposal to list polar bears as a threatened species under the United States Endangered Species Act. To provide information for the Department of the Interior's listing-decision process, the US Geological Survey (USGS) produced a series of nine research reports evaluating the present and future status of polar bears throughout their range. In response, Armstrong et al. [Armstrong, J. S., K. C. Green, W. Soon. 2008. Polar bear population forecasts: A public-policy forecasting audit. Interfaces 38 (5) 382–405], which we will refer to as AGS, performed an audit of two of these nine reports. AGS claimed that the general circulation models upon which the USGS reports relied were not valid forecasting tools, that USGS researchers were not objective or lacked independence from policy decisions, that they did not utilize all available information in constructing their forecasts, and that they violated numerous principles of forecasting espoused by AGS. AGS (p. 382) concluded that the two USGS reports were "unscientific and inconsequential to decision makers." We evaluate the AGS audit and show how AGS are mistaken or misleading on every claim. We provide evidence that general circulation models are useful in forecasting future climate conditions and that corporate and government leaders are relying on these models to do so. We clarify the strict independence of the USGS from the listing decision. We show that the allegations of failure to follow the principles of forecasting espoused by AGS are either incorrect or are based on misconceptions about the Arctic environment, polar bear biology, or statistical and mathematical methods. We conclude by showing that the AGS principles of forecasting are too ambiguous and subjective to be used as a reliable basis for auditing scientific investigations. In summary, we show that the AGS audit offers no valid criticism of the USGS conclusion that global warming poses a serious threat to the future welfare of polar bears and that it only serves to distract from reasoned public-policy debate.

Interfaces↗

USGS1997

Distribution of autumn-staging Lesser Snow Geese on the northeast coastal plain of Alaska

We conducted aerial surveys of Lesser Snow Geese ( Chen caerulescens caerulescens ) during autumn staging on the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) in northeast Alaska from late August through September, 1982 - 1993. We evaluated numbers and distribution of Snow Geese that staged on the ANWR, compared abundance of birds among 5 x 5-km cells used frequently (5 - 8 yr), periodically (3 - 4 yr), or infrequently (1 - 2 yr), and examined distribution changes within years. Maximum numbers of Snow Geese observed annually were highly variable (range 12,828 - 309,225). Snow Goose flocks occurred across 605,000 ha of the coastal plain, but used some areas more frequently than others. Frequently used cells (38 of 363 cells in the study area) were non-randomly distributed and primarily occurred on the central coastal plain between the wet coastal and steep foothills regions. Abundance of geese was greatest in frequently used, intermediate in periodically used, and lowest in infrequently used cells. Within years, Snow Goose numbers and flock locations varied between surveys, possibly because geese moved to different foraging areas during staging. The widespread distribution and annual variability in numbers of Snow Geese on the coastal plain was likely because birds used foraging habitats that were spatially and temporally heterogeneous. The ANWR coastal plain is an important component of the fall-staging area used by Snow Geese that nest in the western Canadian Arctic. Management decisions that affect the region should reflect its value to migrating Snow Geese.

Alaska↗

USGS2004

Sequence stratigraphy of the Kingak Shale (Jurassic-Lower Cretaceous), National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska

Beaufortian strata (Jurassic-Lower Cretaceous) in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska (NPRA) are a focus of exploration since the 1994 discovery of the nearby Alpine oil field (>400 MMBO). These strata include the Kingak Shale, a succession of depositional sequences influenced by rift opening of the Arctic Ocean Basin. Interpretation of sequence stratigraphy and depositional facies from a regional two-dimensional seismic grid and well data allows the definition of four sequence sets that each displays unique stratal geometries and thickness trends across NPRA. A Lower to Middle Jurassic sequence set includes numerous transgressive-regressive sequences that collectively built a clastic shelf in north-central NPRA. Along the south-facing, lobate shelf margin, condensed shales in transgressive systems tracts downlap and coalesce into a basinal condensed section that is likely an important hydrocarbon source rock. An Oxfordian-Kimmeridgian sequence set, deposited during pulses of uplift on the Barrow arch, includes multiple transgressive-regressive sequences that locally contain well-winnowed, shoreface sandstones at the base of transgressive systems tracts. These shoreface sandstones and overlying shales, deposited during maximum flooding, form stratigraphic traps that are the main objective of exploration in the Alpine play in NPRA. A Valanginian sequence set includes at least two transgressive-regressive sequences that display relatively distal characteristics, suggesting high relative sea level. An important exception is the presence of a basal transgressive systems tract that locally contains shoreface sandstones of reservoir quality. A Hauterivian sequence set includes two transgressive-regressive sequences that constitute a shelf-margin wedge developed as the result of tectonic uplift along the Barrow arch during rift opening of the Arctic Ocean Basin. This sequence set displays stratal geometries suggesting incision and synsedimentary collapse of the shelf margin.

Alaska↗

USGS2013

Adaptive harvest management for the Svalbard population of pink-footed geese: briefing summary

The African-Eurasian Waterbird Agreement (AEWA; http://www.unep-aewa.org/) calls for means to manage populations which cause conflicts with certain human economic activities. The Svalbard population of the pink-footed goose has been selected as the first test case for such an international species management plan to be developed. This document describes progress to date on the development of an adaptive harvest management (AHM) strategy for maintaining pink-footed goose abundance near their target level by providing for sustainable harvasts in Norway and Denmark. This briefing supplements material provided in the Progress Summary distributed to the International Working Group on February 1, 2013. We emphasize that peer review is an essential aspect of the process of developing and implementing an AHM program for pink-footed geese, and we will continue to solicit reviews by the International Working Group and their staff, as well as scientists not engaged in this effort. We wish to make the Working Group aware the the following two manuscripts have been submitted recently to refereed journals and are available upon request from the senior authors: Jensen, G.H., J. Madsen, F.A. Johnson, and M. Tamstorf. Snow conditions as an estimator of the breeding output in high-Arctic pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus. Polar Biology: In review. Johnson, F.A., G.H. Jensen, J. Madsen, and B.K. Williams. Uncertainity, robustness, and the value of information in managing an expanding Arctic goose population. Ecological Modeling: In review. In addition to these manuscripts, the Progress Summary (February 1, 2013), and this Briefing Summary (April 23, 2013) an annual report will be produced in August 2013 and every summer thereafter. Additional manuscripts for journal publication are also anticipated.

Report↗

USGS2007

Predicting and validating the motion of an ash cloud during the 2006 eruption of Mount Augustine volcano

On 11 January 2006, Mount Augustine volcano in southern Alaska began erupting after 20- year repose. The Anchorage Forecast Office of the National Weather Service (NWS) issued an advisory on 28 January for Kodiak City. On 31 January, Alaska Airlines cancelled all flights to and from Anchorage after multiple advisories from the NWS for Anchorage and the surrounding region. The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) had reported the onset of the continuous eruption. AVO monitors the approximately 100 active volcanoes in the Northern Pacific. Ash clouds from these volcanoes can cause serious damage to an aircraft and pose a serious threat to the local communities, and to transcontinental air traffic throughout the Arctic and sub-Arctic region. Within AVO, a dispersion model has been developed to track the dispersion of volcanic ash clouds. The model, Puff, was used operational by AVO during the Augustine eruptive period. Here, we examine the dispersion of a volcanic ash (or aerosol) cloud from Mount Augustine across Alaska from 29 January through the 2 February 2006. We present the synoptic meteorology, the Puff predictions, and measurements from aerosol samplers, laser radar (or lidar) systems, and satellites. Aerosol samplers revealed the presence of volcanic aerosols at the surface at sites where Puff predicted the ash clouds movement. Remote sensing satellite data showed the development of the ash cloud in close proximity to the volcano consistent with the Puff predictions. Two lidars showed the presence of volcanic aerosol with consistent characteristics aloft over Alaska and were capable of detecting the aerosol, even in the presence of scattered clouds and where the ash cloud is too thin/disperse to be detected by remote sensing satellite data. The lidar measurements revealed the different trajectories of ash consistent with the Puff predictions. Dispersion models provide a forecast of volcanic ash cloud movement that might be undetectable by any other means but are still a significant hazard. Validation is the key to assessing the accuracy of any predictions. The study highlights the use of multiple and complementary observations used in detecting the trajectory ash cloud, both at the surface and aloft in the atmosphere.

Alaska↗

USGS2006

Future for polar bears in a declining sea ice environment: What do we know?

During an April 22, 2006, interview on the CBC radio program “The House,” Tim Flannery, author of the recent book “The Weathermakers,” stated, “Projections of the polar bear specialists are that by about 2030, around that date, the species will be extinct because of global warming induced changes in the Arctic sea ice.” That statement was followed on May 4th by quotations in the Toronto Globe and Mail from Dr. Mitch Taylor, a polar bear researcher in Nunavut, Canada, claiming, “polar bears have survived both warmer times and colder times than these,” that “nothing has melted the Arctic sea ice for 30 million years,” that “polar bears are remarkably adaptable,” and that “a warming climate might even benefit polar bears.”

Conference Paper↗

USGS2015

Changes in thyroid parameters of hatchling American kestrels ( Falco sparverius ) following embryonic exposure to technical short chain chlorinated paraffins (SCCPs; C 10-13 , 55.5% CL)

Chlorinated paraffins (CPs) are complex mixtures of polychlorinated n-alkanes categorized according to their carbon chain length: short chain (SCCPs, C10 – C13), medium (C14 - C17), and long chain (C>17), chlorinated paraffins. SCCPs are primarily used in metalworking applications, as flame retardants, and in paints, adhesives, sealants, textiles, plastics and rubber (UNEP 2012). In 2012, the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP 2012) reported in the Revised Draft Risk Profile for SCCPs, that CPs were produced in the United States, the European Union (EU), Slovakia, Brazil, India, Japan and China. While annual global consumption of SCCPs is large (>25 tonnes/year), it has sharply declined over the past 20 years. SCCPs are released through wastewater, landfills, and air emissions (UNEP 2012). Concentrations of SCCPs have been reported in fish and marine mammals in North and South America, Europe, Japan, Greenland and the Arctic (UNEP 2012 and references therein). Characterization of SCCP concentrations and exposure in terrestrial wildlife is limited. In 2010, SCCP concentrations were reported in the eggs of yellow-legged gulls (Larus michahellis) (4536 ± 40 pg/g wet weight (ww)) and Audouin’s gulls (Larus audouinii) (6364 ± 20 pg/g ww) in Spain (Morales et al. 2012), and little auks (Alle alle) (5 - 88 ng/g ww) and kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) (5 - 44 ng/g ww) in the European Arctic (Reth et al. 2006). In Sweden, muscle of ospreys contained CPs of unspecified chain length (Jansson et al. 1993). Although the toxicity of SCCPs has been demonstrated in aquatic invertebrates, fish, frogs, and laboratory rats, there are limited avian studies and these reported no effects of SCCPs on egg parameters of domestic hens (Gallus gallus domesticus) and ducks (Anas platyrhynchos) (UNEP 2012). Despite reported accumulation of SCCPs in wild birds, to our knowledge, exposure-related toxicities and effects with respect to avian wildlife remain unknown.

Organohalogen Compounds↗

USGS2004

Using Forward Looking Infrared (FLIR) imagery to detect polar bear maternal dens: Operations manual

Recent research has shown that Forward Looking Infia-Red (FLIR) imagery can detect polar bear dens despite total snow cover over their deming habitat. FLIR imagers detect a AT or difference in temperature between objects in the imager's field of view. During the Arctic winter, the groundlsnow surface is typically cold, providing a dark background in the FLIR imager. Sources of heat appear as lighter or white areas. Dens, in particular, appear as small bright "hotspots", usually with kzy boundaries (Appendix 1). Most commonly, since bears chose deep snow drifts for deming, dens can be distinguished from the normally dark (cold) band of drifted snow surrounding them. This innovation has the potential to prevent human activities fiom disturbing deming polar bears by allowing managers to discover dens before potentially disruptive activities begin. This is important because expanding resource extraction in Alaska's Arctic regions may threaten the welfare of polar bears and their habitat. In recent years, exploration and development activities have expanded east and west of the original oil fields of Prudhoe Bay. Hydrocarbon extraction is now occurring or planned along much of the central Beaufort Sea coast. As development continues into the National Petroleum Reserve, the scope of expansion could include 213 of the northern coastal region of Alaska. Industrial activities are a potential threat to polar bears, especially as they might disturb bears in maternal dens (Lentfer and Hensel 1980, Stirling 1990, Stirling and Andriashek 1992, Amstrup 1993, Amstrup and Gardner 1994). As the number of humans and their activities have increased in recent years, there has been a concurrent increase in the number of female polar bears deming on land (Amstrup and Gardner 1994). Therefore, the probability of disrupting maternal deming can be expected to increase in the future. Using FLIR surveys to detect bears in dens could reduce or eliminate that probability. The purpose of this manual is to provide agency and private sector land managers with the information necessary to perform effective FLIR surveys to detect maternal dens. A list of personnel who can provide additional information is provided in Appendix 2.

BOEM↗

USGS2002

Land cover

Documenting the distribution of land-cover types on the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge coastal plain is the foundation for impact assessment and mitigation of potential oil exploration and development. Vegetation maps facilitate wildlife studies by allowing biologists to quantify the availability of important wildlife habitats, investigate the relationships between animal locations and the distribution or juxtaposition of habitat types, and assess or extrapolate habitat characteristics across regional areas. To meet the needs of refuge managers and biologists, satellite imagery was chosen as the most cost-effective method for mapping the large, remote landscape of the 1002 Area. Objectives of our study were the following: 1) evaluate a vegetation classification scheme for use in mapping. 2) determine optimal methods for producing a satellite-based vegetation map that adequately met the needs of the wildlife research and management objectives; 3) produce a digital vegetation map for the Arctic Refuge coastal plain using Lands at-Thematic Mapper(TM) satellite imagery, existing geobotanical classifications, ground data, and aerial photographs, and 4) perform an accuracy assessment of the map.

Alaska, Northwest Territories, Yukon Territory↗

USGS2002

The porcupine caribou herd

Documentation of the natural range of variation in ecological, life history, and physiological characteristics of caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ) of the Porcupine caribou herd is a necessary base for detecting or predicting any potential effects of industrial development on the performance (e.g., distribution, demography, weight-gain of individuals) of the herd. To demonstrate an effect of development, post-development performance must differ from pre-development performance while accounting for any natural environmental trends. We had 2 working hypotheses for our investigations: 1) performance of the Porcupine caribou herd was associated with environmental patterns and habitat quality, and 2) access to important habitats was a key influence on demography. We sought to document the range of natural variation in habitat conditions, herd size, demography (defined here as survival and reproduction), sources and magnitude of mortality, distribution, habitat use, and weight gain and loss, and to develop an understanding of the interactions among these characteristics of the herd. In addition, we investigated ways that we could use this background information, combined with auxiliary information from the adjacent Central Arctic caribou herd, to predict the direction and magnitude of any potential effects of industrial oil development in the 1002 Area of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge on Porcupine caribou herd calf survival on the herd's calving grounds during June.

Alaska, Northwest Territories, Yukon Territory↗