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Delineation of marsh types and marsh-type change in coastal Louisiana for 2007 and 2013

The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management researchers often require detailed information regarding emergent marsh vegetation types (such as fresh, intermediate, brackish, and saline) for modeling habitat capacities and mitigation. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management produced a detailed change classification of emergent marsh vegetation types in coastal Louisiana from 2007 and 2013. This study incorporates two existing vegetation surveys and independent variables such as Landsat Thematic Mapper multispectral satellite imagery, high-resolution airborne imagery from 2007 and 2013, bare-earth digital elevation models based on airborne light detection and ranging, alternative contemporary land-cover classifications, and other spatially explicit variables. An image classification based on image objects was created from 2007 and 2013 National Agriculture Imagery Program color-infrared aerial photography. The final products consisted of two 10-meter raster datasets. Each image object from the 2007 and 2013 spatial datasets was assigned a vegetation classification by using a simple majority filter. In addition to those spatial datasets, we also conducted a change analysis between the datasets to produce a 10-meter change raster product. This analysis identified how much change has taken place and where change has occurred. The spatial data products show dynamic areas where marsh loss is occurring or where marsh type is changing. This information can be used to assist and advance conservation efforts for priority natural resources.

Louisiana

Science-based management of public lands in southern Nevada

Landmark legislation provides guiding principles for land management planning in southern Nevada and the rest of the United States. Such legislation includes, but is not limited to, the Forest Service Organic Administration Act of 1897 (16 U.S>C. 473-478, 479-482 and 551), National Park Service Organic Act of 1916 (U.S.C. Title 16, Secs. 1-4). Wilderness Act 1964 (P.L.88-577), National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (P.L. 91-190), Endangered Species Act of 1973 (P.L. 91-205), National Forest Management Act of of 1976 (P.L. 94-588), and Federal Land Policy and Management Act of 1976 (P.L. 94-579). The acts establishing congressionally designated areas within southern Nevada, such as Lake Mead National Recreation Area, Spring Mountains National Restoration Area, and Desert National Wildlife Refuge, also contain guidelines for the management of these lands. These documents variously require preservation of natural and cultural resource and wilderness character, protection of species, and prevention of undesirable environmental effects from land management actions. These requirements must be met while allowing for multiple "uses" of certain public lands (e.g. recreation, ranching, resources extraction, renewable energy development, etc.) to the degree that they do no threaten preservation, protection, and prevention goals,. many considerations some into play in the development and implementation for land management plans and actions. The planning process requires a balancing act that sometimes pit one need or priority against another. When priorities can trump other needs can prioritized and receive disproportionate consideration. Overall, the management of public lands is a very complicated and sometime contentious process. Science provides an objective way to help weigh quantifiable information and draw conclusions about the effects of past and potential future land management policies, decisions, and actions. When effectively integrated into adaptive management, science-based information can reduce uncertainties, increase knowledge, and improve decision making. However, the specific science information needed for effective management is often lacking or difficult to access or interpret. Science is typically reported in scientific journals as discrete units describing individual studies with other scientists as the primary audience. Translations of these studies an synthesis or multiple studies into formats that can be readily used in land management planning efforts are often lacking. Identifying and articulating the highest priority science and research needs is one of the primary purposes of the Southern Nevada Agency Partnership (SNAP; http://www.SNAP.gov) Science and Research Team (chapter 1; Turner and others 2009). The SNAP Science and Research Strategy (Strategy) calls for a synthesis report to be written every 5 years summarizing the state of knowledge, information gaps and management implications of scientific information as it relates to the SNAP Strategy goals (Turner and others 2009). This General Technical Report serves as the first SNAP Science and Research Synthesis Report (Synthesis Report) commissioned by the Science and Research Team. The Synthesis Report is mostly based on information form the peer-reviewed scientific literature, and is itself peer reviewed and constitutes a new contribution to the scientific literature. This final chapter addresses Sub-goal 2.3, which is to manage current and future authorized southern Nevada land uses in a manner that balances public need and ecosystem sustainability, and Sub-goal 2.5, which is to promote an effective conservation education and interpretation program to improve the quality of resources and enhance public use and enjoyment of southern Nevada public lands. It summarizes information form the previous chapters on what scientific information is known currently and what remains largely unknown, and it discusses how science can be used to make future management decisions that balances public needs and ecosystem sustainability.

Nevada

Hydrostratigraphic interpretation of test-hole and borehole geophysical data, Kimball, Cheyenne, and Deuel Counties, Nebraska, 2011-12

Recently (2004) adopted legislation in Nebraska requires a sustainable balance between long-term supplies and uses of surface-water and groundwater and requires Natural Resources Districts to understand the effect of groundwater use on surface-water systems when developing a groundwater-management plan. The South Platte Natural Resources District (SPNRD) is located in the southern Nebraska Panhandle and overlies the nationally important High Plains aquifer. Declines in water levels have been documented, and more stringent regulations have been enacted to ensure the supply of ground-water will be sufficient to meet the needs of future generations. Because an improved understanding of the hydrogeologic characteristics of this aquifer system is needed to ensure sustainability of groundwater withdrawals, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the SPNRD, Conservation and Survey Division of the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, and the Nebraska Environmental Trust, began a hydrogeologic study of the SPNRD to describe the lithology and thickness of the High Plains aquifer. This report documents these characteristics at 29 new test holes, 28 of which were drilled to the base of the High Plains aquifer. Herein the High Plains aquifer is considered to include all hydrologically connected units of Tertiary and Quaternary age. The depth to the base of aquifer was interpreted to range from 37 to 610 feet in 28 of the 29 test holes. At some locations, particularly northern Kimball County, the base-of-aquifer surface was difficult to interpret from drill cutting samples and borehole geophysical logs. The depth to the base of aquifer determined for test holes drilled for this report was compared with the base-of-aquifer surface interpreted by previous researchers. In general, there were greater differences between the base-of-aquifer elevation reported herein and those in previous studies for areas north of Lodgepole Creek compared to areas south of Lodgepole Creek. The largest difference was at test hole 5-SP-11, where an Ogallala-filled paleovalley prevously had been interpreted based on relatively sparse test-hole data west of 5-SP-11. The base of aquifer near test hole 5-SP-11 reported herein is approximately 230 ft higher in elevation than previously interpreted. Among other test holes that are likely to have been drilled in Ogallala-filled paleovalleys, the greatest difference in the interpreted base of aquifer was for test hole 7-CC-11, northeast of Potter, Nebraska, where the base of aquifer is 180 feet deeper than previously interpreted. Interpretation of test-hole and borehole geophysical data for 29 additional test holes will improve resource managers’ understanding of the hydrogeologic characteristics, including aquifer thickness. Aquifer thickness, which is related to total water in storage, is not well quantified in the north and south tablelands. The additional hydrostratigraphic interpretations provided in this report will improve the hydrogeologic framework used in current (2014) and future groundwater models, which are the basis for many water-management decisions.

Nebraska

Soil water retention and maximum capillary drive from saturation to oven dryness

This paper provides an alternative method to describe the water retention curve over a range of water contents from saturation to oven dryness. It makes two modifications to the standard Brooks and Corey [1964] (B-C) description, one at each end of the suction range. One expression proposed by Rossi and Nimmo [1994] is used in the high-suction range to a zero residual water content. (This Rossi-Nimmo modification to the Brooks-Corey model provides a more realistic description of the retention curve at low water contents.) Near zero suction the second modification eliminates the region where there is a change in suction with no change in water content. Tests on seven soil data sets, using three distinct analytical expressions for the high-, medium-, and low-suction ranges, show that the experimental water retention curves are well fitted by this composite procedure. The high-suction range of saturation contributes little to the maximum capillary drive, defined with a good approximation for a soil water and air system as H cM = ∫ 0 ∞ K rw dh c , where k rw is relative permeability (or conductivity) to water and h c is capillary suction, a positive quantity in unsaturated soils. As a result, the modification suggested to describe the high-suction range does not significantly affect the equivalence between Brooks-Corey (B-C) and van Genuchten [1980] parameters presented earlier. However, the shape of the retention curve near “natural saturation” has a significant impact on the value of the capillary drive. The estimate using the Brooks-Corey power law, extended to zero suction, will exceed that obtained with the new procedure by 25 to 30%. It is not possible to tell which procedure is appropriate. Tests on another data set, for which relative conductivity data are available, support the view of the authors that measurements of a retention curve coupled with a speculative curve of relative permeability as from a capillary model are not sufficient to accurately determine the (maximum) capillary drive. The capillary drive is a dynamic scalar, whereas the retention curve is of a static character. Only measurements of infiltration rates with time can determine the capillary drive with precision for a given soil.

Water Resources Research

Assessing the seasonal evolution of snow depth spatial variability and scaling in complex mountain terrain

Dynamic natural processes govern snow distribution in mountainous environments throughout the world. Interactions between these different processes create spatially variable patterns of snow depth across a landscape. Variations in accumulation and redistribution occur at a variety of spatial scales, which are well established for moderate mountain terrain. However, spatial patterns of snow depth variability in steep, complex mountain terrain have not been fully explored due to insufficient spatial resolutions of snow depth measurement. Recent advances in uncrewed aerial systems (UASs) and structure from motion (SfM) photogrammetry provide an opportunity to map spatially continuous snow depths at high resolutions in these environments. Using UASs and SfM photogrammetry, we produced 11 snow depth maps at a steep couloir site in the Bridger Range of Montana, USA, during the 2019–2020 winter. We quantified the spatial scales of snow depth variability in this complex mountain terrain at a variety of resolutions over 2 orders of magnitude (0.02 to 20 m) and time steps (4 to 58 d) using variogram analysis in a high-performance computing environment. We found that spatial resolutions greater than 0.5 m do not capture the complete patterns of snow depth spatial variability within complex mountain terrain and that snow depths are autocorrelated within horizontal distances of 15 m at our study site. The results of this research have the potential to reduce uncertainty currently associated with snowpack and snow water resource analysis by documenting and quantifying snow depth variability and snowpack evolution on relatively inaccessible slopes in complex terrain at high spatial and temporal resolutions.

Montana

Discontinuities concentrate mobile predators: Quantifying organism-environment interactions at a seascape scale

Understanding environmental drivers of spatial patterns is an enduring ecological problem that is critical for effective biological conservation. Discontinuities (ecologically meaningful habitat breaks), both naturally occurring (e.g., river confluence, forest edge, drop-off) and anthropogenic (e.g., dams, roads), can influence the distribution of highly mobile organisms that have land- or seascape scale ranges. A geomorphic discontinuity framework, expanded to include ecological patterns, provides a way to incorporate important but irregularly distributed physical features into organism–environment relationships. Here, we test if migratory striped bass ( Morone saxatilis ) are consistently concentrated by spatial discontinuities and why. We quantified the distribution of 50 acoustically tagged striped bass at 40 sites within Plum Island Estuary, Massachusetts during four-monthly surveys relative to four physical discontinuities (sandbar, confluence, channel network, drop-off), one continuous physical feature (depth variation), and a geographic location variable (region). Despite moving throughout the estuary, striped bass were consistently clustered in the middle geographic region at sites with high sandbar area, close to channel networks, adjacent to complex confluences, with intermediate levels of bottom unevenness, and medium sized drop-offs. In addition, the highest striped bass concentrations occurred at sites with the greatest additive physical heterogeneity (i.e., where multiple discontinuities co-occurred). The need to incorporate irregularly distributed features in organism–environment relationships will increase as high-quality telemetry and GIS data accumulate for mobile organisms. The spatially explicit approach we used to address this challenge can aid both researchers who seek to understand the impact of predators on ecosystems and resource managers who require new approaches for biological conservation.

Ecosphere

Worth of data and natural disaster insurance

The Federal Government in the past has provided medical and economic aid to victims of earthquakes and floods. However, regulating the use of hazard-prone areas would probably be more efficient. One way to implement such land use regulation is through the national flood and earthquake insurance program. Because insurance firms base their premium rates on available information, the benefits from additional data used to improve parameter estimates of the probability distribution (governing actual disaster events) can be computed by computing changes in the premiums as a function of additional data. An insurance firm is assumed to set rates so as to trade off penalties of overestimation and underestimation of expected damages. A Bayesian preposterior analysis is applied to determine the worth of additional data, as measured by changes in consumers’ surplus, by examining the effects of changes in premiums as a function of a longer hydrologic record.

Water Resources Research

A decision tool to identify population management strategies for common ravens and other avian predators

Some avian species have developed the capacity to leverage resource subsidies associated with human manipulated landscapes to increase population densities in habitats with naturally low carrying capacities. Elevated corvid densities and new territory establishment have led to an unsustainable increase in depredation pressure on sympatric native wildlife prey populations as well as in crop damage. Yet, subsidized predator removal programs aimed at reducing densities are likely most effective longer-term when conducted in tandem with subsidy control, habitat management, and robust assessment monitoring programs. We developed decision support software that leverages stage structured Lefkovitch population matrices to compare and identify treatment strategies that reduce subsidized avian predator densities most efficiently, in terms of limiting both cost and take levels. The StallPOPd (Version 4; available at https://doi.org/10.7298/sk2e-0c38.4) software enables managers to enter the area of their management stratum and the demographic properties (vital rates) of target bird population(s) of interest to evaluate strategies to decrease or curtail further population growth. Strategies explicitly include the reduction in fertility (i.e., eggs hatched) and/or the culling of hatchlings, non-breeders and/or breeders, but implicitly comprise reduction in survival or reproduction through subsidy denial. We illustrate the utilities of the software with examples using common ravens ( Corvus corax; ravens) in the Mojave Desert of California, USA. Unfortunately, the survival and reproduction effects of each unit of a particular subsidy in that system have remained elusive, though this is the priority of current research. Because the software leverages a life history representation that is known to characterize hundreds of wildlife species in addition to ravens, the work expands the suite of tools available to wildlife managers and agricultural industry specialists to abate bird damage and impacts on sensitive wildlife in habitats with persistent human subsidies.

Human-Wildlife Interactions

Comments on potential geologic and seismic hazards affecting proposed liquefied natural gas site in Santa Monica Bay, California

In a letter to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) dated March 25, 2008, Representative Jane Harman (California 36th district) requested advice on geologic hazards that should be considered in the review of a proposed liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility off the California coast in Santa Monica Bay. In 2004, the USGS responded to a similar request from Representative Lois Capps, regarding two proposed LNG facilities offshore Ventura County, Calif., with a report summarizing potential geologic and seismic hazards (Ross and others, 2004). The proposed LNG Deepwater Port (DWP) facility includes single point moorings (SPMs) and 35 miles of underwater pipelines. The DWP submersible buoys, manifolds, and risers would be situated on the floor of the southern Santa Monica Basin, in 3,000 feet of water, about 23 miles offshore of the Palos Verdes Peninsula. Twin 24-inch diameter pipelines would extend northeastward from the buoys across the basin floor, up the basin slope and across the continental shelf, skirting north around the Santa Monica submarine canyon. Figure 1 provides locations of the project and geologic features. Acronyms are defined in table 1. This facility is being proposed in a region of known geologic hazards that arise from both the potential for strong earthquakes and geologic processes related to sediment transport and accumulation in the offshore environment. The probability of a damaging earthquake (considered here as magnitude 6.5 or greater) in the next 30 years within about 30 miles (50 km) of the proposed pipeline ranges from 16% at the pipeline's offshore end to 48% where it nears land (Petersen, 2008). Earthquakes of this magnitude are capable of producing strong shaking, surface fault offsets, liquefaction phenomena, landslides, underwater turbidity currents and debris flow avalanches, and tsunamis. As part of the DWP license application for the Woodside Natural Gas proposal in Santa Monica Bay (known as the OceanWay Secure Energy Project), Fugro West, Inc., had already prepared a document discussing geologic hazards in the area, titled 'Exhibit B Topic Report 6 - Geological Resources' (Fugro West, Inc., 2007); hereafter, this will be called the 'Geological Resources document'. The USGS agreed to evaluate the information in the Geological Resources document regarding (1) proximity of active faults to the proposed project, (2) potential magnitude of seismic events from nearby faults, (3) thoroughness of the assessment of earthquake hazards in general, (4) potential hazards from ground rupture and strong shaking, (5) potential hazards from tsunamis, and (6) other geologic hazards including landslides and debris flows. Because two new earthquake probability reports were scheduled to be released in mid-April, 2008, by the USGS and the California Geological Survey (CGS), the USGS suggested a 6-month review period to enable a thorough incorporation of this new information. Twenty-seven scientists from the USGS and the CGS reviewed various sections of the Geological Resources document. This report outlines our major conclusions. The appendix is a longer list of comments by these reviewers, grouped by section of the Geological Resources document. Before discussing our reviews, we first provide a brief overview of geologic hazards in the proposed site area. This report is a snapshot in time and any future work in the area will need to take into account ongoing research efforts. For example, USGS scientists collected seismic reflection data in the spring of 2008 to study the structure and seismic potential of several faults in the area. Their interpretations (Conrad and others, 2008a and 2008b) are too preliminary to be included in this report, but their final results, along with other researchers' studies in the project area, should be considered in any future work on the Deepwater Port project.

California

A mapping and monitoring assessment of the Philippines' mangrove forests from 1990 to 2010

Information on the present condition and spatiotemporal dynamics of mangrove forests is needed for land-change studies and integrated natural resources planning and management. Although several national mangrove estimates for the Philippines exist, information is unavailable at sufficient spatial and thematic detail for change analysis. Historical and contemporary mangrove distribution maps of the Philippines for 1990 and 2010 were prepared at nominal 30-m spatial resolution using Landsat satellite data. Image classification was performed using a supervised decision tree classification approach. Additionally, decadal land-cover change maps from 1990 to 2010 were prepared to depict changes in mangrove area. Total mangrove area decreased 10.5% from 1990 to 2010. Comparison of estimates produced from this study with selected historical mangrove area estimates revealed that total mangrove area decreased by approximately half (51.8%) from 1918 to 2010. This study provides the most current and reliable data regarding the Philippines mangrove area and spatial distribution and delineates where and when mangrove change has occurred in recent decades. The results from this study are useful for developing conservation strategies, biodiversity loss mitigation efforts, and future monitoring and analysis.

Journal of Coastal Research

Bayesian nitrate source apportionment to individual groundwater wells in the Central Valley by use of elemental and isotopic tracers

Groundwater quality is a concern in alluvial aquifers that underlie agricultural areas, such as in the San Joaquin Valley of California. Shallow domestic wells (less than 150 m deep) in agricultural areas are often contaminated by nitrate. Agricultural and rural nitrate sources include dairy manure, synthetic fertilizers, and septic waste. Knowledge of the relative proportion that each of these sources contributes to nitrate concentration in individual wells can aid future regulatory and land management decisions. We show that nitrogen and oxygen isotopes of nitrate, boron isotopes, and iodine concentrations are a useful, novel combination of groundwater tracers to differentiate between manure, fertilizers, septic waste, and natural sources of nitrate. Furthermore, in this work, we develop a new Bayesian mixing model in which these isotopic and elemental tracers were used to estimate the probability distribution of the fractional contributions of manure, fertilizers, septic waste, and natural sources to the nitrate concentration found in an individual well. The approach was applied to 56 nitrate-impacted private domestic wells located in the San Joaquin Valley. Model analysis found that some domestic wells were clearly dominated by the manure source and suggests evidence for majority contributions from either the septic or fertilizer source for other wells. But, predictions of fractional contributions for septic and fertilizer sources were often of similar magnitude, perhaps because modeled uncertainty about the fraction of each was large. For validation of the Bayesian model, fractional estimates were compared to surrounding land use and estimated source contributions were broadly consistent with nearby land use types.

California

Patch utilization and flower visitations by wild bees in a honey bee-dominated, grassland landscape

Understanding habitat needs and patch utilization of wild and managed bees has been identified as a national research priority in the United States. We used occupancy models to investigate patterns of bee use across 1030 transects spanning a gradient of floral resource abundance and richness and distance from apiaries in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the United States. Estimates of transect use by honey bees were nearly 1.0 during our 3.5-month sampling period, suggesting honey bees were nearly ubiquitous across transects. Wild bees more frequently used transects with higher flower richness and more abundant flowers; however, the effect size of the native flower abundance covariate ( = 3.90 ± 0.65 [1SE]) was four times greater than the non-native flower covariate ( = 0.99 ± 0.17). We found some evidence that wild bee use was lower at transects near commercial apiaries, but the effect size was imprecise ( = 1.4 ± 0.81). Honey bees were more frequently detected during sampling events with more non-native flowers and higher species richness but showed an uncertain relationship with native flower abundance. Of the 4039 honey bee and flower interactions, 85% occurred on non-native flowers, while only 43% of the 738 wild bee observations occurred on non-native flowers. Our study suggests wild bees and honey bees routinely use the same resource patches in the PPR but often visit different flowering plants. The greatest potential for resource overlap between honey bees and wild bees appears to be for non-native flowers in the PPR. Our results are valuable to natural resource managers tasked with supporting habitat for managed and wild pollinators in agroecosystems.

Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota

Analysis of bathymetric surveys to identify coastal vulnerabilities at Cape Canaveral, Florida

Cape Canaveral, Florida, is a prominent feature along the Southeast U.S. coastline. The region includes Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge, Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, NASA’s Kennedy Space Center, and a large portion of Canaveral National Seashore. The actual promontory of the modern Cape falls within the jurisdictional boundaries of Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. Erosion hazards result from winter and tropical storms, changes in sand resources, sediment budgets, and sea-level rise. Previous work by the USGS has focused on the vulnerability of the dunes to storms, where updated bathymetry and topography have been used for modeling efforts. Existing research indicates that submerged shoals, ridges, and sandbars affect patterns of wave refraction and height, coastal currents, and control sediment transport. These seabed anomalies indicate the availability and movement of sand within the nearshore environment, which may be directly related to the stability of the Cape Canaveral shoreline. Understanding the complex dynamics of the offshore bathymetry and associated sediment pathways can help identify current and future erosion vulnerabilities due to short-term (for example, hurricane and other extreme storms) and long-term (for example, sea-level rise) hazards. The purpose of this work is to describe an updated bathymetric dataset collected in 2014 and compare it to previous datasets. The updated data focus on the bathymetric features and sediment transport pathways that connect the offshore regions to the shoreline and, therefore, are related to the protection of other portions of the coastal environment, such as dunes, that support infrastructure and ecosystems. Previous survey data include National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Ocean Service (NOS) hydrographic survey from 1956 and a USGS survey from 2010 that is augmented with NOS surveys from 2006 and 2007. The primary result of this analysis is documentation and quantification of the nature and rates of bathymetric changes that are near (within about 2.5 km) the current Cape Canaveral shoreline and interpretation of the impact of these changes on future erosion vulnerability.

Florida

Can the eastern red-backed salamander (Plethodon cinereus) persist in an acidified landscape?

Hardwood forests of eastern North America have experienced decades of acidic deposition, leading to soil acidification where base cation supply was insufficient to neutralize acid inputs. Negative impacts of soil acidity on amphibians include disrupted embryonic development, lower growth rates, and habitat loss. However, some amphibians exhibit intraspecific variation in acid tolerance, suggesting the potential for local adaptation in areas where soils are naturally acidic. The eastern red-backed salamander ( Plethodon cinereus ) is a highly abundant top predator of the northern hardwood forest floor. Early research found that P. cinereus was sensitive to acidic soils, avoiding substrates with pH < 3.8 and experiencing decreased growth rates in acidic habitats. However, recent studies have documented P. cinereus populations in lower pH conditions than previously observed, suggesting some populations may persist in acidic conditions. Here, we evaluated relationships between organic horizon soil pH and P. cinereus abundance, adult health (body size and condition), and microhabitat selection, based on surveys of 34 hardwood forests in northeastern United States that encompass a regional soil pH gradient. We found no associations between soil pH and P. cinereus abundance or health, and observed that this salamander used substrates with pH similar to that available, suggesting that pH does not mediate their fine-scale distributions. The strongest negative predictor of P. cinereus abundance was the presence of dusky salamanders ( Desmognathus spp.), which were most abundant in the western Adirondacks. Our results indicate that P. cinereus occupies a wider range of soil pH than has been previously thought, which has implications for their functional role in forest food webs and nutrient cycles in acid-impaired ecosystems. Tolerance of P. cinereus for more acidic habitats, including anthropogenically acidified forests, may be due to local adaptation in reproductively isolated populations and/or generalist life history traits that allow them to exploit a wider resource niche.

Ecosphere

A framework for modeling anthropogenic impacts on waterbird habitats: addressing future uncertainty in conservation planning

The amount and quality of natural resources available for terrestrial and aquatic wildlife habitats are expected to decrease throughout the world in areas that are intensively managed for urban and agricultural uses. Changes in climate and management of increasingly limited water supplies may further impact water resources essential for sustaining habitats. In this report, we document adapting a Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system model for the Central Valley of California. We demonstrate using this adapted model (WEAP-CV wh ) to evaluate impacts produced from plausible future scenarios on agricultural and wetland habitats used by waterbirds and other wildlife. Processed output from WEAP-CV wh indicated varying levels of impact caused by projected climate, urbanization, and water supply management in scenarios used to exemplify this approach. Among scenarios, the NCAR-CCSM3 A2 climate projection had a greater impact than the CNRM-CM3 B1 climate projection, whereas expansive urbanization had a greater impact than strategic urbanization, on annual availability of waterbird habitat. Scenarios including extensive rice-idling or substantial instream flow requirements on important water supply sources produced large impacts on annual availability of waterbird habitat. In the year corresponding with the greatest habitat reduction for each scenario, the scenario including instream flow requirements resulted in the greatest decrease in habitats throughout all months of the wintering period relative to other scenarios. This approach provides a new and useful tool for habitat conservation planning in the Central Valley and a model to guide similar research investigations aiming to inform conservation, management, and restoration of important wildlife habitats.

California

Results of a modeling workshop concerning preservation and protection of wetlands in North Dakota

In a recently signed letter, the Governor of North Dakota and the Assistant Secretary of the Interior for Fish and Wildlife and Parks charged a joint state-federal study group with examination of two separate questions: 1) mitigation for the Garrison Diversion Project; and 2) planning for long-range protection and preservation of fish and wildlife habitat in North Dakota. The cochair for this study group (the Secretary of the Interior's Field Representative, Denver, Colorado, and the Natural Resources Coordinator for North Dakota) further articulated the charge concerning the second of these two questions to include three steps: 1) development of a general plan for preservation and protection of migratory waterfowl and their associated wetland habitat; 2) a comprehensive analysis of alternative strategies, including opportunities and constraints, for achieving the goals articulated in Step 1; and 3) design of a coordinated state-federal public information program to assist in plan implementation. In order to obtain input from a variety of interests, the joint study group initiated step 2 activities with a five-day workshop in Bismarck, N. D.; December 8-12, 1980. The objectives of the workshop were: 1) to identify alternative strategies for preserving and enhancing waterfowl production habitat in North Dakota; 2) to identify opportunities and constraints associated with those alternatives; and 3) to promote communication and understanding of the implications of those alternatives for all affected parties. To achieve these objectives, the workshop utilized a group of concepts and techniques collectively known as Adaptive Environmental Assessment (AEA). Developed by Dr. C. S. Holling and his co-workers at the University of British Columbia, the AEA process involves planners, managers, scientists, and other interested parties in a structures atmosphere whose focus is the construction and examination of a computerized simulation model of the resource system under consideration. The modeling process is used to promote communication, identify pertinent issues, identify key data gaps and uncertainties, direct research efforts to fill those gaps, and explore the possible consequences of various management alternatives. The workshop, which was facilitated by the AEA Group of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), was attended by approximately 25 invited participants representing a variety of interests concerned with the wetlands protection issue in North Dakota. During the week workshop participants conceptualized and constructed a computerized simulation model incorporating many of the hydrologic, agricultural, and wildlife aspects of the wetlands issue. During the process of constructing this model and examining its behavior, participants identified several interesting alternative strategies that may prove useful in an overall wetland protection program, along with a variety of constraints associated with each. Perhaps the most interesting of these alternatives revolve around the idea that there may be a variety of cases in which water can be retained on the land, with concommitant benefits both for wildlife and flood control, without detriment to agricultural productivity. Examples of this kind of activity include flooding of previously drained Type I wetlands in summer fallow areas, installation of smaller drains in Type I and III wetlands to reduce the rate at which water runs off in the spring, and use of strategically located gates in drainage channels associated with the state highway system to slow runoff and create wetland habitat. Several other alternatives discussed at the workshop are related to the notion of using available, uncommitted water supplied to enhance or create wetlands. Several cases were cited in which more certain water supplies would be useful in increasing waterfowl production or reducing disease problems, especially in dry years. Water for such purposes might come from a variety of current of proposed water development projects, both large and small scale. Finally, the potential for re-establishment of "unsuccessfully" drained (i.e., not consistently usable for agricultural purposes) wetlands was discussed at some length. There are apparently substantial acreages of such wetlands in North Dakota and a program to acquire and rehabilitate them might be of considerable utility. The workshop was thus successful in accomplishing its first two objectives--identification of alternative strategies, opportunities, and constraints. However, it would be naive to suppose that any of the alternatives discussed offers a complete, simple solution to the wetlands issue in North Dakota. The most important result of the workshop may therefore be that which was accomplished relative to the third objective--promotion of communication and understanding. It was gratifying and encouraging to see the spirit of communication and cooperation that developed by the end of the workshop. The fact that representatives of many of the interests concerned with the wetlands issue participated in an open exchange of ideas and information marks an important step forward. We believe that it is imperative that this cooperative attitude be maintained, and that there are a variety of ways in which this might be accomplished. Perhaps the simplest would be a small-scale pilot project and research effort to determine the effects of wetland maintenance on summer fallow areas. Such a research program would provide not only useful information, but an opportunity for many of the affected interests to begin working toward mutually acceptable solutions to the overall wetlands issue.

North Dakota

Fat fractal scaling of drainage networks from a random spatial network model

An alternative quantification of the scaling properties of river channel networks is explored using a spatial network model. Whereas scaling descriptions of drainage networks previously have been presented using a fractal analysis primarily of the channel lengths, we illustrate the scaling of the surface area of the channels defining the network pattern with an exponent which is independent of the fractal dimension but not of the fractal nature of the network. The methodology presented is a fat fractal analysis in which the drainage basin minus the channel area is considered the fat fractal. Random channel networks within a fixed basin area are generated on grids of different scales. The sample channel networks generated by the model have a common outlet of fixed width and a rule of upstream channel narrowing specified by a diameter branching exponent using hydraulic and geomorphologic principles. Scaling exponents are computed for each sample network on a given grid size and are regressed against network magnitude. Results indicate that the size of the exponents are related to magnitude of the networks and generally decrease as network magnitude increases. Cases showing differences in scaling exponents with like magnitudes suggest a direction of future work regarding other topologic basin characteristics as potential explanatory variables.

Water Resources Research

USGS highly pathogenic avian influenza research strategy

Avian influenza viruses are naturally occurring in wild birds such as ducks, geese, swans, and gulls. These viruses generally do not cause illness in wild birds, however, when spread to poultry they can be highly pathogenic and cause illness and death in backyard and commercial farms. Outbreaks may cause devastating agricultural economic losses and some viral strains have the potential to infect people directly. Furthermore, the combination of avian influenza viruses with mammalian viruses can result in strains with the ability to transmit from person to person, possibly leading to viruses with pandemic potential. All known pandemic influenza viruses have had some genetic material of avian origin. Since 1996, a strain of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus, H5N1, has caused infection in wild birds, losses to poultry farms in Eurasia and North Africa, and led to the deaths of several hundred people. Spread of the H5N1 virus and other influenza strains from China was likely facilitated by migratory birds. In December 2014, HPAI was detected in poultry in Canada and migratory birds in the United States. Since then, HPAI viruses have spread to large parts of the United States and will likely continue to spread through migratory bird flyways and other mechanisms throughout North America. In the United States, HPAI viruses have severely affected the poultry industry with millions of domestic birds dead or culled. These strains of HPAI are not known to cause disease in humans; however, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) advise caution when in close contact with infected birds. Experts agree that HPAI strains currently circulating in wild birds of North America will likely persist for the next few years. This unprecedented situation presents risks to the poultry industry, natural resource management, and potentially human health. Scientific knowledge and decision support tools are urgently needed to understand factors affecting the persistence of HPAI in wild birds, to forecast future spread of HPAI by wild birds, and to detect novel strains of HPAI that may emerge.

Fact Sheet