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Preliminary report on applications of machine learning techniques to the Nevada geothermal play fairway analysis

We are applying machine learning (ML) techniques, including training set augmentation and artificial neural networks, to mitigate key challenges in the Nevada play fairway project. The study area includes ~85 active geothermal systems as potential training sites and >12 geologic, geophysical, and geochemical features. The main goal is to develop an algorithmic approach to identify new geothermal systems in the Great Basin region. Major objectives include: 1) integrate ML techniques into the geothermal community; 2) develop open community datasets, whereby all play fairway and ML datasets and algorithms are publicly released and available for modification by various user groups; 3) identify data acquisition targets with high value for future work; 4) identify new signatures to detect blind geothermal systems; and 5) foster new capabilities for characterizing subsurface temperature and permeability. Initially, ML techniques are being applied to the same play fairway datasets and workflow. ML will then be applied to both enhanced and additional datasets, with modification of the PFA workflow to incorporate the new datasets. Finally, ML will be applied to define new workflows using the enhanced and additional datasets. An algorithmic approach that empirically learns to estimate weights of influence for diverse parameters can potentially scale and perform better than the play fairway analysis. Initial work on this project has involved 1) evaluating potential positive and negative training sites, 2) transformation of datasets into formats suitable for ML, and 3) initial development and testing of ML techniques.

Nevada

Data resources for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) Integrated Assessment (IA)

The data contained in this report were compiled, modified, and analyzed for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) Integrated Assessment (IA). The WLCI is a long-term science based effort to assess and enhance aquatic and terrestrial habitats at a landscape scale in southwest Wyoming while facilitating responsible energy development through local collaboration and partnerships. The IA is an integrated synthesis and analysis of WLCI resource values based on best available data and information collected from multiple agencies and organizations. It is a support tool for landscape-scale conservation planning and evaluation, and a data and analysis resource that can be used for addressing specific management questions. The IA analysis was conducted using a Geographic Information System in a raster (that is, a grid) environment using a cell size of 30 meters. To facilitate the interpretation of the data in a regional context, mean values were summarized and displayed at the subwatershed unit (WLCI subwatersheds were subset from the National Hydrography Dataset, Hydrologic Unit Code 12/Level 6). A dynamic mapping platform, accessed via the WLCI webpage at http://www.wlci.gov is used to display the mapped information, and to access underlying resource values that were combined to produce the final mapped results. The raster data used in the IA are provided here for use by interested parties to conduct additional analyses and can be accessed via the WLCI webpage. This series contains 74 spatial data sets: WLCI subwatersheds (vector) and 73 geotiffs (raster) that are segregated into the major categories of Multicriteria Index (including Resource Index and Condition), Change Agents, and Future Change. The Total Multicriteria Index is composed of the Aquatic Multicriteria Index and the Terrestrial Multicriteria Index. The Aquatic Multicriteria Index is composed of the Aquatic Resource Index and the Aquatic Condition. The Aquatic Resource Index is composed of the following components: Groundwater, Special Management Areas, and Priority Areas. The Aquatic Condition is composed of the following components: Focal Species, Species of Concern, Focal Ecosystems, and Proper Functioning Condition. The Terrestrial Multicriteria Index is composed of the Terrestrial Resource Index and the Terrestrial Condition. The Terrestrial Resource Index is composed of the following components: Special Management Areas, Agriculture, and Priority Areas. The Terrestrial Condition is composed of the following components: Focal Species, Big Game, Species of Concern, Rare Plants, and Focal Ecosystems. The Change Agents are composed the following components: Roads, Energy, Mines, and Urban. The Future Change is composed of the following components: Oil-Gas-Coal, Wind, Minerals, Climate-Temperature, Invasive Species, and Urban.

Wyoming

Southern California Bight 2003 Regional Monitoring Program: V. water quality

More than $30 million is expended annually on environmental monitoring in the Southern California Bight (SCB), yet only 5% of the Bight is monitored on an ongoing basis. Therefore, environmental managers in the SCB decided to expand their monitoring program and, starting in 1994, decided to conduct periodic regional assessments of ecosystem condition and assess the overall health of the SCB. Sixty-five different organizations collaborated in 2003 to create the third SCB Regional Monitoring Program (Bight '03). Bight '03 was designed to be integrated regional monitoring program that encompasses regulatory, academic, and non-governmental agencies. Bight '03 had three components: Coastal Ecology, Shoreline Microbiology, and Water Quality. This report addresses the purpose, approach, findings, and recommendations from the Water Quality component, which focused on contamination-laden stormwater runoff, in particularly its variability in time and space as well as its short-term ecological impacts. Specifically, the Bight '03 Water Quality component had three primary goals, the first of which was to described the temporal evolution of stormwater plumes produced by the major southern California rivers. Specifically, the study was intended to determine how far offshore the plumes extended, how rapidly they advected, how long before the plumes dispersed and how these properties differed among storms and river systems. The second goal was to describe how the physical properties (e.g., turbidity, temperature, salinity) of the plume related to biogeochemical and ecological properties that are of more direct concern to the water quality management community. Accomplished primarily through ship-based sampling of water quality parameters, this second goal was to describe how far offshore, and for how ;long after the storm, elevated bacterial concentrations, toxicity, and nutrients could be detected. Similar to the fist goal, the study also addressed how these answers differed among storms and river systems. The final goal was to determine whether relationships between environmental indicators derived from coincident satellite remote sensing and in situ data sets are sufficiently robust for remote sensing to become a routine water quality monitoring programs. Remote sensing data potentially provide coastal managers with synoptic near-real time regional information about prevailing ocean conditions and hazards that would complement existing field-based sampling protocols, but only if there is a thorough understanding of how to interpret and utilize the proxy measures, such as ocean color. The understanding of these priorities through Bight '03 sampling is intended to provide the basis for developing more efficient, widespread and coast-effective coastal ocean monitoring techniques. Water quality data were collected across eight major river systems within four geographic regions of southern California. Field measurements included the primary contaminants of interest, i.e., bacterial concentrations, water toxicity, and nutrients, as well as related parameters such as temperatures, salinity, total suspended solids, transmissivity, chlorophyll, and colored dissolved organic material (CDOM) concentrations. For each of the four major regions, i.e., Santa Clara/Ventura Rivers, Ballona Creek/Santa Monica Bay, San Pedro Shelf, and the San Diego, Tijuana Rivers, two stormwater events were sampled for up to three days by ship resulting in 574 water column CTD+ profiles and 705 discrete water samples during 36 ship-days. These data were analyzed in combination with MODIS ocean color satellite remote sensing, buoy meteorological observations, drifters, and HF radar current measurements to evaluate the dispersal patterns, dynamics, and impacts of the freshwater runoff plumes. Based on these data and resulting analyses, the principal conclusions were as follow: - Stormwater runoff turbidity plumes were found to be spatially extensive, covering up to 2500 km 2 within the Southern California Bight nearshore zone, and persisting over the entire duration of the post-storm sampling period (at least 3 days). - The spatial and temporal extent of the portion of the plume with contaminants was far less than that of the turbidity plume, typically representing <10% of its area (30-70% off Tijuana); however, with contaminant impacts generally greatly reduced or absent by the third or fourth day of sampling - Pseudo-nitzschia , a harmful algae that produces domoic acid, was found to be more abundant than previously reported. - Accurately describing stormwater runoff plumes requires a combination of in situ and remote sensing assessment tools, with satellite data providing valuable synoptic information. From these conclusions, the following recommendations are provided: - Future studies designed to describe stormwater plumes should include a combination of ship - and remote sensing-based methods. - CDOM is a good proxy of the freshwater runoff plume and should be added as a standard measurement parameter on water quality instrument packages. - Investigations are needed that assess on a local basis the spatial extent of ecological effects of stormwater plumes early in the storm, ideally accompanied by airborne imagery to provide improved temporal & spatial resolution, to fill in knowledge gaps. The next Bight regional monitoring program should focus on quantifying nutrient loadings and dynamics in association with stormwater runoff and other sources, and characterize their attendant ecosystem impacts such as phytoplankton blooms.

California

Sperm cryopreservation in fish and shellfish

Initial success in sperm cryopreservation came at about the same time for aquatic species and livestock. However, in the 50-plus years since then cryopreserved sperm of livestock has grown into a billion-dollar global industry, while despite work in some 200 species with well over 200 published reports, cryopreservation of aquatic species sperm remains essentially a research activity with little commercial application. Most research has focused on large-bodied culture and sport fishes, such as salmonids, carps, and catfishes, and mollusks such as commercially important oyster and abalone species. However, only a handful of studies have addressed sperm cryopreservation in small fishes, such as zebrafish, and in endangered species. Overall, this work has yielded techniques that are being applied with varying levels of success around the world. Barriers to expanded application include a diverse and widely distributed literature base, technical problems, small sperm volumes, variable results, a general lack of access to the technology, and most importantly, the lack of standardization in practices and reporting. The benefits of cryopreservation include at least five levels of improvements for existing industries and for creation of new industries. First, cryopreservation can be used to improve existing hatchery operations by providing sperm on demand and simplifying the timing of induced spawning. Second, frozen sperm can enhance efficient use of facilities and create new opportunities in the hatchery by eliminating the need to maintain live males, potentially freeing resources for use with females and larvae. Third, valuable genetic lineages such as endangered species, research models, or improved farmed strains can be protected by storage of frozen sperm. Fourth, cryopreservation opens the door for rapid genetic improvement. Frozen sperm can be used in breeding programs to create improved lines and shape the genetic resources available for aquaculture. Finally, cryopreserved sperm of aquatic species will at some point become an entirely new industry itself. A successful industry will require integrated practices for sample collection, refrigerated storage, freezing, thawing, rules for use and disposal, transfer agreements, and database development. Indeed the development of this new industry is currently constrained by factors including the technical requirements for scaling-up to commercial operations during the transition from research, and the absence of uniform quality control practices, industry standards, marketing and price structures, and appropriate biosecurity safeguards.

Society for Reproduction and Fertility Supplement

Effectiveness of fish screens in protecting lamprey (Entosphenus and Lampetra spp.) ammocoetes—Pilot testing of variable screen angle

Thousands of screened water diversions throughout the Columbia River Basin of the Pacific Northwest are sources of entrainment (unintended diversion into an unsafe passage route), injury, and mortality for a range of fish species and screening criteria have been developed to reduce and mitigate these effects. Large knowledge gaps exist concerning the potential effects of these screens on juvenile and larval lampreys ( Entosphenus and Lampetra spp. ) that may be particularly vulnerable to screening effects owing to their small size, unique morphology, and poor swimming performance. The few studies that have evaluated screen impacts for lampreys have compared common screen materials in a laboratory setting using a large, recirculating flume, and have reported that screen size and material influence the risk of entrainment. We compared entrainment rate, impingement rate and duration, injury rate, and delayed (24-hour) mortality of larval lamprey (ammocoetes) exposed to two screen angles. A 20-degree screen was tested because it is a common configuration, and a 12-degree screen was selected to represent a screen more parallel to flow than the 20-degree screen. We included juvenile rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) in tests for both screen angles so that any screen interaction improvements observed for lamprey could be considered in light of their effect on salmonids ( Oncorhynchus spp. ). Study fish were released singly into the flume at two locations: near-screen (SCR) releases at about 30 centimeters upstream of the screen and mid-channel (MID) releases at about 1.4 meters upstream of the screen. We completed 120 screen trials with ammocoetes and 117 screen trials with juvenile tout during April–May 2018. Ammocoetes had short mean trial durations (less than 30 seconds) and were most frequently bypassed. Over one-half of the ammocoetes briefly (for less than 1 second) contacted the screen. Rates of screen contact were similar between the two screen angles, but higher for SCR releases (about 83–90 percent) than for MID releases (about 28–44 percent). Screen impingements were not common (8.3 percent of ammocoetes) and did not result in significant injury or delayed mortality. The final logistic regression model showed that screen angle and release location did not significantly affect whether ammocoetes were bypassed. The size of the lamprey, expressed as mass or length, was the only significant predictor of fate. We noted an estimated 4.7-percent increase in the odds of being bypassed for every 1-milligram increase in ammocoete mass and a 49-percent increase in the odds of being bypassed for every 1-millimeter increase in length. Trout did not experience negative effects with the 12-degree screen; they had short mean trial durations (less than 40 seconds) and limited contact with the screens (11.1 percent of trout), were most commonly bypassed, and none were entrained. Screen angle and release location were not significant drivers of fate for trout. The 12-degree and 20-degree screens performed comparably for both lamprey and trout and effectively bypassed these fishes. Some metrics showed advantages for the 12-degree screen, suggesting that screens installed more parallel to flow might warrant further testing.

Columbia River Basin

Local-area-enhanced, 2.5-meter resolution natural-color and color-infrared satellite-image mosaics of the North Takhar mineral district in Afghanistan: Chapter D in Local-area-enhanced, high-resolution natural-color and color-infrared satellite-image mosaics of mineral districts in Afghanistan

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Defense Task Force for Business and Stability Operations, prepared databases for mineral-resource target areas in Afghanistan. The purpose of the databases is to (1) provide useful data to ground-survey crews for use in performing detailed assessments of the areas and (2) provide useful information to private investors who are considering investment in a particular area for development of its natural resources. The set of satellite-image mosaics provided in this Data Series (DS) is one such database. Although airborne digital color-infrared imagery was acquired for parts of Afghanistan in 2006, the image data have radiometric variations that preclude their use in creating a consistent image mosaic for geologic analysis. Consequently, image mosaics were created using ALOS (Advanced Land Observation Satellite; renamed Daichi) satellite images, whose radiometry has been well determined (Saunier, 2007a,b). This part of the DS consists of the locally enhanced ALOS image mosaics for the North Takhar mineral district, which has placer gold deposits. ALOS was launched on January 24, 2006, and provides multispectral images from the AVNIR (Advanced Visible and Near-Infrared Radiometer) sensor in blue (420–500 nanometer, nm), green (520–600 nm), red (610–690 nm), and near-infrared (760–890 nm) wavelength bands with an 8-bit dynamic range and a 10-meter (m) ground resolution. The satellite also provides a panchromatic band image from the PRISM (Panchromatic Remote-sensing Instrument for Stereo Mapping) sensor (520–770 nm) with the same dynamic range but a 2.5-m ground resolution. The image products in this DS incorporate copyrighted data provided by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (©JAXA,2006,2008), but the image processing has altered the original pixel structure and all image values of the JAXA ALOS data, such that original image values cannot be recreated from this DS. As such, the DS products match JAXA criteria for value added products, which are not copyrighted, according to the ALOS end-user license agreement. The selection criteria for the satellite imagery used in our mosaics were images having (1) the highest solar-elevation angles (near summer solstice) and (2) the least cloud, cloud-shadow, and snow cover. The multispectral and panchromatic data were orthorectified with ALOS satellite ephemeris data, a process which is not as accurate as orthorectification using digital elevation models (DEMs); however, the ALOS processing center did not have a precise DEM. As a result, the multispectral and panchromatic image pairs were generally not well registered to the surface and not coregistered well enough to perform resolution enhancement on the multispectral data. Therefore, it was necessary to (1) register the 10-m AVNIR multispectral imagery to a well-controlled Landsat image base, (2) mosaic the individual multispectral images into a single image of the entire area of interest, (3) register each panchromatic image to the registered multispectral image base, and (4) mosaic the individual panchromatic images into a single image of the entire area of interest. The two image-registration steps were facilitated using an automated control-point algorithm developed by the USGS that allows image coregistration to within one picture element. Before rectification, the multispectral and panchromatic images were converted to radiance values and then to relative-reflectance values using the methods described in Davis (2006). Mosaicking the multispectral or panchromatic images started with the image with the highest sun-elevation angle and the least atmospheric scattering, which was treated as the standard image. The band-reflectance values of all other multispectral or panchromatic images within the area were sequentially adjusted to that of the standard image by determining band-reflectance correspondence between overlapping images using linear least-squares analysis. The resolution of the multispectral image mosaic was then increased to that of the panchromatic image mosaic using the SPARKLE logic, which is described in Davis (2006). Each of the four-band images within the resolution-enhanced image mosaic was individually subjected to a local-area histogram stretch algorithm (described in Davis, 2007), which stretches each band’s picture element based on the digital values of all picture elements within a 315-m radius. The final databases, which are provided in this DS, are three-band, color-composite images of the local-area-enhanced, natural-color data (the blue, green, and red wavelength bands) and color-infrared data (the green, red, and near-infrared wavelength bands). All image data were initially projected and maintained in Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) map projection using the target area’s local zone (42 for North Takhar) and the WGS84 datum. The final image mosaics were subdivided into nine overlapping tiles or quadrants because of the large size of the target area. The nine image tiles (or quadrants) for the North Takhar area are provided as embedded geotiff images, which can be read and used by most geographic information system (GIS) and image-processing software. The tiff world files (tfw) are provided, even though they are generally not needed for most software to read an embedded geotiff image.

North Takhar

Local-area-enhanced, 2.5-meter resolution natural-color and color-infrared satellite-image mosaics of the South Helmand mineral district in Afghanistan: Chapter O in Local-area-enhanced, high-resolution natural-color and color-infrared satellite-image mosaics of mineral districts in Afghanistan

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Defense Task Force for Business and Stability Operations, prepared databases for mineral-resource target areas in Afghanistan. The purpose of the databases is to (1) provide useful data to ground-survey crews for use in performing detailed assessments of the areas and (2) provide useful information to private investors who are considering investment in a particular area for development of its natural resources. The set of satellite-image mosaics provided in this Data Series (DS) is one such database. Although airborne digital color-infrared imagery was acquired for parts of Afghanistan in 2006, the image data have radiometric variations that preclude their use in creating a consistent image mosaic for geologic analysis. Consequently, image mosaics were created using ALOS (Advanced Land Observation Satellite; renamed Daichi) satellite images, whose radiometry has been well determined (Saunier, 2007a,b). This part of the DS consists of the locally enhanced ALOS image mosaics for the South Helmand mineral district, which has travertine deposits. ALOS was launched on January 24, 2006, and provides multispectral images from the AVNIR (Advanced Visible and Near-Infrared Radiometer) sensor in blue (420–500 nanometer, nm), green (520–600 nm), red (610–690 nm), and near-infrared (760–890 nm) wavelength bands with an 8-bit dynamic range and a 10-meter (m) ground resolution. The satellite also provides a panchromatic band image from the PRISM (Panchromatic Remote-sensing Instrument for Stereo Mapping) sensor (520–770 nm) with the same dynamic range but a 2.5-m ground resolution. The image products in this DS incorporate copyrighted data provided by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (©JAXA, 2008, 2010), but the image processing has altered the original pixel structure and all image values of the JAXA ALOS data, such that original image values cannot be recreated from this DS. As such, the DS products match JAXA criteria for value added products, which are not copyrighted, according to the ALOS end-user license agreement. The selection criteria for the satellite imagery used in our mosaics were images having (1) the highest solar-elevation angles (near summer solstice) and (2) the least cloud, cloud-shadow, and snow cover. The multispectral and panchromatic data were orthorectified with ALOS satellite ephemeris data, a process which is not as accurate as orthorectification using digital elevation models (DEMs); however, the ALOS processing center did not have a precise DEM. As a result, the multispectral and panchromatic image pairs were generally not well registered to the surface and not coregistered well enough to perform resolution enhancement on the multispectral data. Therefore, it was necessary to (1) register the 10-m AVNIR multispectral imagery to a well-controlled Landsat image base, (2) mosaic the individual multispectral images into a single image of the entire area of interest, (3) register each panchromatic image to the registered multispectral image base, and (4) mosaic the individual panchromatic images into a single image of the entire area of interest. The two image-registration steps were facilitated using an automated control-point algorithm developed by the USGS that allows image coregistration to within one picture element. Before rectification, the multispectral and panchromatic images were converted to radiance values and then to relative-reflectance values using the methods described in Davis (2006). Mosaicking the multispectral or panchromatic images started with the image with the highest sun-elevation angle and the least atmospheric scattering, which was treated as the standard image. The band-reflectance values of all other multispectral or panchromatic images within the area were sequentially adjusted to that of the standard image by determining band-reflectance correspondence between overlapping images using linear least-squares analysis. The resolution of the multispectral image mosaic was then increased to that of the panchromatic image mosaic using the SPARKLE logic, which is described in Davis (2006). Each of the four-band images within the resolution-enhanced image mosaic was individually subjected to a local-area histogram stretch algorithm (described in Davis, 2007), which stretches each band’s picture element based on the digital values of all picture elements within a 500-m radius. The final databases, which are provided in this DS, are three-band, color-composite images of the local-area-enhanced, natural-color data (the blue, green, and red wavelength bands) and color-infrared data (the green, red, and near-infrared wavelength bands). All image data were initially projected and maintained in Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) map projection using the target area’s local zone (41 for South Helmand) and the WGS84 datum. The final image mosaics were subdivided into eight overlapping tiles or quadrants because of the large size of the target area. The eight image tiles (or quadrants) for the South Helmand area are provided as embedded geotiff images, which can be read and used by most geographic information system (GIS) and image-processing software. The tiff world files (tfw) are provided, even though they are generally not needed for most software to read an embedded geotiff image.

South Helmand Mineral District

Evaluating how changing climate and water clarity can affect restoration of native coregonine fishes in midwestern lakes

In the upper midwestern United States, coregonine fishes (e.g., ciscoes and whitefishes) have provided a key food source for Indigenous peoples since time immemorial. In the last century, however, several anthropogenic stressors including overfishing, declining quality of key habitat (e.g., dams, algal blooms), and negative interactions with invasive species have led to declines in the fisheries that coregonines support. Hence, fishery managers have undertaken steps to conserve existing diversity or re-introduce species that have been locally extirpated. This study assessed the extent to which changes in water clarity and climate pose challenges for conservation of coregonines and sought to provide information to inform management decisions about which populations would be best for reintroduction. Through experiments, we found that a Cisco ( Coregonus artedi ) population at the southern edge of its range had no marked advantages in respiration or thermal tolerance, relative to a northern Great Lake population. This result indicates that the latter population would be a reasonable candidate for reintroduction in Lake Erie, where warming water could be a potential impediment. Other laboratory experiments revealed that Cisco could be vulnerable to increasing ultraviolet radiation (UV; 280 – 320 nm) penetration in lakes due to reduced ice cover and increased water clarity owing to water quality improvements and/or invasive mussel filtration. Our experiments found that UV exposure causes earlier hatching, more irregular pigmentation near the head and yolk-sac region, and reduced heart rate. Therefore, UV could be a heretofore unrealized threat to Cisco populations. Through the completion of additional final products from this project and additional research connecting laboratory and field data together, the extent to which the eggs and larvae of coregonine species could be vulnerable to increased UV associated with increasing water clarity or reduced ice cover will help inform restoration or conservation planning for these fish.

Cooperator Report

Analysis of barium and strontium in sediments by dc plasma emission spectrometry

The dc plasma arc is suited to analysis of barium and strontium in a wide range of sedimentary rock matrices, from sands, shales, and carbonates, to ferromanganese nodules. Samples containing 10 ppm to more than 3000 ppm barium and strontium were studied. Both alkali (3500 ppm lithium borate, from a preliminary fusion) and lanthanum salts (1%) in the final solution are needed to achieve freedom from systematic effects due to extreme variation in matrix. In the absence of La, neither Li, Na, K, nor Cs totally eliminated effects of Al and other constituents on emission. Silica addition to the fusion helps achieve proper flux viscosity to aid removal of fused beads from graphite crucibles. The effect of refractory-substance formers such as aluminum with calcium can be reduced or removed by selection of a portion of the arc for emission measurement. However, it was decided not to pursue this approach because of loss in analytical sensitivity and need for greater precision in optical adjustment. Analysis of standard rock samples showed generally satisfactory agreement with precision methods of analysis, and some new standard rock data are reported.

Applied Spectroscopy

Digital simulation of ground-water flow in the Warwick Aquifer, Fort Totten Indian Reservation, North Dakota

The demand for water from the Warwick aquifer, which underlies the Fort Totten Indian Reservation in northeastern North Dakota, has been increasing during recent years. Therefore, the Spirit Lake Sioux Nation is interested in resolving questions about the quantity and quality of water in the aquifer and in developing a water-management plan for future water use. A study was conducted to evaluate the surface-water and ground-water resources of the Fort Totten Indian Reservation and, in particular, the ground-water resources in the area of the Warwick aquifer. A major component of the study, addressed by this report, was to define the ground-water flow system of the aquifer. The Warwick aquifer consists of outwash deposits of the Warwick outwash plain that are as much as 30 feet thick and buried-valley deposits beneath the outwash plain that are as much as 200 feet thick. The aquifer is bounded on the north and west by end-moraine deposits and Devils Lake, on the south by the Sheyenne River Valley, and on the east by outwash deposits and ravines. The aquifer is underlain by Pierre Shale or by glacial till, clay, or silt. Ground-water gradients generally are small and rarely are more than 3 or 4 feet per mile. From 1982 to 1993, withdrawals from the Devils Lake well field averaged 1.5 cubic feet per second, and withdrawals from irrigation wells averaged 1.29 cubic feet per second. The combined discharge from springs may be about 3 cubic feet per second. During the early 1990s, the Warwick aquifer probably was in a steady-state condition with regard to storage change in the aquifer. A finite-difference, three-dimensional, ground-water flow model provided a reasonable simulation of ground-water flow in the Warwick aquifer. The aquifer was divided vertically into two layers and horizontally into a grid of 83 by 109 cells, each measuring 656 feet (200 meters) per side. The steady-state simulation was conducted using 1992 pumpage rates and October 1992 water levels. The mean absolute difference between simulated and derived water-level altitudes during final calibration of the model was 1.52 feet. The two transient simulations were conducted for 20 time intervals of 1 year each using both the small and large storage estimates, doubled 1992 pumpage from the Devils Lake well field, 1992 irrigation pumpage, and initial water-level altitudes simulated by the October 1992 steady-state simulation. In the simulation using the small storage estimate and doubled pumpage, model cells in the area of the well field went dry after 13 years. Assumptions made in the design of the model generally are supported by the digital simulation. Except in the area of Warwick Springs and smaller springs, lateral and basal boundaries of the aquifer are impermeable. The flow system is dominated by recharge and evapotranspiration. Recharge rates obtained during the calibration process were lower in topographically high areas than in topographically low areas. Hydraulic conductivity in the area of the Devils Lake well field was larger than that in the rest of the aquifer.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Simulation of regional ground-water flow in the Upper Deschutes Basin, Oregon

This report describes a numerical model that simulates regional ground-water flow in the upper Deschutes Basin of central Oregon. Ground water and surface water are intimately connected in the upper Deschutes Basin and most of the flow of the Deschutes River is supplied by ground water. Because of this connection, ground-water pumping and reduction of artificial recharge by lining leaking irrigation canals can reduce the amount of ground water discharging to streams and, consequently, streamflow. The model described in this report is intended to help water-management agencies and the public evaluate how the regional ground-water system and streamflow will respond to ground-water pumping, canal lining, drought, and other stresses. Ground-water flow is simulated in the model by the finite-difference method using MODFLOW and MODFLOWP. The finite-difference grid consists of 8 layers, 127 rows, and 87 columns. All major streams and most principal tributaries in the upper Deschutes Basin are included. Ground-water recharge from precipitation was estimated using a daily water-balance approach. Artificial recharge from leaking irrigation canals and on-farm losses was estimated from diversion and delivery records, seepage studies, and crop data. Ground-water pumpage for irrigation and public water supplies, and evapotranspiration are also included in the model. The model was calibrated to mean annual (1993-95) steady-state conditions using parameter-estimation techniques employing nonlinear regression. Fourteen hydraulic-conductivity parameters and two vertical conductance parameters were determined using nonlinear regression. Final parameter values are all within expected ranges. The general shape and slope of the simulated water-table surface and overall hydraulic-head distribution match the geometry determined from field measurements. The fitted standard deviation for hydraulic head is about 76 feet. The general magnitude and distribution of ground-water discharge to streams is also well simulated throughout the model. Ground-water discharge to streams in the area of the confluence of the Deschutes, Crooked, and Metolius Rivers is closely matched. The model was also calibrated to transient conditions from 1978 to 1997 using traditional trial-and-error methods. Climatic cycles during this period provided an excellent regional hydrologic signal for calibration. Climate-driven water-level fluctuations are simulated with reasonable accuracy over most of the model area. The timing and magnitude of simulated water-level fluctuations caused by annual pulses of recharge from precipitation match those observed reasonably well, given the limitations of the time discretization in the model. Water-level fluctuations caused by annual canal leakage are simulated very well over most of the area where such fluctuations occur. The transient model also simulates the volumetric distribution and temporal variations in ground-water discharge reasonably well. The match between simulated and measured volume of and variations in ground-water discharge is, however, somewhat dependent on geographic scale. The rates of and variations in ground-water discharge are matched best at regional scales. Example simulations were made to demonstrate the utility of the model for evaluating the effects of ground-water pumping or canal lining. Pumping simulations show that pumped water comes largely from aquifer storage when pumping begins, but as the water table stabilizes, the pumping increasingly diminishes the discharge to streams and, hence, streamflow. The time it takes for pumping to affect streamflow varies spatially depending, in general, on the location of pumping relative to the discharge areas. Canal-lining simulations show similar effects.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Local-area-enhanced, 2.5-meter resolution natural-color and color-infrared satellite-image mosaics of the Dudkash mineral district in Afghanistan: Chapter R in Local-area-enhanced, high-resolution natural-color and color-infrared satellite-image mosaics of mineral districts in Afghanistan

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Defense Task Force for Business and Stability Operations, prepared databases for mineral-resource target areas in Afghanistan. The purpose of the databases is to (1) provide useful data to ground-survey crews for use in performing detailed assessments of the areas and (2) provide useful information to private investors who are considering investment in a particular area for development of its natural resources. The set of satellite-image mosaics provided in this Data Series (DS) is one such database. Although airborne digital color-infrared imagery was acquired for parts of Afghanistan in 2006, the image data have radiometric variations that preclude their use in creating a consistent image mosaic for geologic analysis. Consequently, image mosaics were created using ALOS (Advanced Land Observation Satellite; renamed Daichi) satellite images, whose radiometry has been well determined (Saunier, 2007a,b). This part of the DS consists of the locally enhanced ALOS image mosaics for the Dudkash mineral district, which has industrial mineral deposits. ALOS was launched on January 24, 2006, and provides multispectral images from the AVNIR (Advanced Visible and Near-Infrared Radiometer) sensor in blue (420–500 nanometer, nm), green (520–600 nm), red (610–690 nm), and near-infrared (760–890 nm) wavelength bands with an 8-bit dynamic range and a 10-meter (m) ground resolution. The satellite also provides a panchromatic band image from the PRISM (Panchromatic Remote-sensing Instrument for Stereo Mapping) sensor (520–770 nm) with the same dynamic range but a 2.5-m ground resolution. The image products in this DS incorporate copyrighted data provided by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (©JAXA,2006,2007,2008,2009), but the image processing has altered the original pixel structure and all image values of the JAXA ALOS data, such that original image values cannot be recreated from this DS. As such, the DS products match JAXA criteria for value added products, which are not copyrighted, according to the ALOS end-user license agreement. The selection criteria for the satellite imagery used in our mosaics were images having (1) the highest solar-elevation angles (near summer solstice) and (2) the least cloud, cloud-shadow, and snow cover. The multispectral and panchromatic data were orthorectified with ALOS satellite ephemeris data, a process which is not as accurate as orthorectification using digital elevation models (DEMs); however, the ALOS processing center did not have a precise DEM. As a result, the multispectral and panchromatic image pairs were generally not well registered to the surface and not coregistered well enough to perform resolution enhancement on the multispectral data. For this particular area, PRISM image orthorectification was performed by the Alaska Satellite Facility, applying its photogrammetric software to PRISM stereo images with vertical control points obtained from the digital elevation database produced by the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (Farr and others, 2007) and horizontal adjustments based on a controlled Landsat image base (Davis, 2006). The 10-m AVNIR multispectral imagery was then coregistered to the orthorectified PRISM images and individual multispectral and panchromatic images were mosaicked into single images of the entire area of interest. The image coregistration was facilitated using an automated control-point algorithm developed by the USGS that allows image coregistration to within one picture element. Before rectification, the multispectral and panchromatic images were converted to radiance values and then to relative-reflectance values using the methods described in Davis (2006). Mosaicking the multispectral or panchromatic images started with the image with the highest sun-elevation angle and the least atmospheric scattering, which was treated as the standard image. The band-reflectance values of all other multispectral or panchromatic images within the area were sequentially adjusted to that of the standard image by determining band-reflectance correspondence between overlapping images using linear least-squares analysis. The resolution of the multispectral image mosaic was then increased to that of the panchromatic image mosaic using the SPARKLE logic, which is described in Davis (2006). Each of the four-band images within the resolution-enhanced image mosaic was individually subjected to a local-area histogram stretch algorithm (described in Davis, 2007), which stretches each band’s picture element based on the digital values of all picture elements within a 500-m radius. The final databases, which are provided in this DS, are three-band, color-composite images of the local-area-enhanced, natural-color data (the blue, green, and red wavelength bands) and color-infrared data (the green, red, and near-infrared wavelength bands). All image data were initially projected and maintained in Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) map projection using the target area’s local zone (42 for Dudkash) and the WGS84 datum. The final image mosaics were subdivided into eight overlapping tiles or quadrants because of the large size of the target area. The eight image tiles (or quadrants) for the Dudkash area are provided as embedded geotiff images, which can be read and used by most geographic information system (GIS) and image-processing software. The tiff world files (tfw) are provided, even though they are generally not needed for most software to read an embedded geotiff image.

Dudkash Mineral District

Local-area-enhanced, 2.5-meter resolution natural-color and color-infrared satellite-image mosaics of the Kunduz mineral district in Afghanistan: Chapter S in Local-area-enhanced, high-resolution natural-color and color-infrared satellite-image mosaics of mineral districts in Afghanistan

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Defense Task Force for Business and Stability Operations, prepared databases for mineral-resource target areas in Afghanistan. The purpose of the databases is to (1) provide useful data to ground-survey crews for use in performing detailed assessments of the areas and (2) provide useful information to private investors who are considering investment in a particular area for development of its natural resources. The set of satellite-image mosaics provided in this Data Series (DS) is one such database. Although airborne digital color-infrared imagery was acquired for parts of Afghanistan in 2006, the image data have radiometric variations that preclude their use in creating a consistent image mosaic for geologic analysis. Consequently, image mosaics were created using ALOS (Advanced Land Observation Satellite; renamed Daichi) satellite images, whose radiometry has been well determined (Saunier, 2007a,b). This part of the DS consists of the locally enhanced ALOS image mosaics for the Kunduz mineral district, which has celestite deposits. ALOS was launched on January 24, 2006, and provides multispectral images from the AVNIR (Advanced Visible and Near-Infrared Radiometer) sensor in blue (420–500 nanometer, nm), green (520–600 nm), red (610–690 nm), and near-infrared (760–890 nm) wavelength bands with an 8-bit dynamic range and a 10-meter (m) ground resolution. The satellite also provides a panchromatic band image from the PRISM (Panchromatic Remote-sensing Instrument for Stereo Mapping) sensor (520–770 nm) with the same dynamic range but a 2.5-m ground resolution. The image products in this DS incorporate copyrighted data provided by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (©JAXA,2007,2008,2009), but the image processing has altered the original pixel structure and all image values of the JAXA ALOS data, such that original image values cannot be recreated from this DS. As such, the DS products match JAXA criteria for value added products, which are not copyrighted, according to the ALOS end-user license agreement. The selection criteria for the satellite imagery used in our mosaics were images having (1) the highest solar-elevation angles (near summer solstice) and (2) the least cloud, cloud-shadow, and snow cover. The multispectral and panchromatic data were orthorectified with ALOS satellite ephemeris data, a process which is not as accurate as orthorectification using digital elevation models (DEMs); however, the ALOS processing center did not have a precise DEM. As a result, the multispectral and panchromatic image pairs were generally not well registered to the surface and not coregistered well enough to perform resolution enhancement on the multispectral data. For this particular area, PRISM image orthorectification was performed by the Alaska Satellite Facility, applying its photogrammetric software to PRISM stereo images with vertical control points obtained from the digital elevation database produced by the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (Farr and others, 2007) and horizontal adjustments based on a controlled Landsat image base (Davis, 2006). The 10-m AVNIR multispectral imagery was then coregistered to the orthorectified PRISM images and individual multispectral and panchromatic images were mosaicked into single images of the entire area of interest. The image coregistration was facilitated using an automated control-point algorithm developed by the USGS that allows image coregistration to within one picture element. Before rectification, the multispectral and panchromatic images were converted to radiance values and then to relative-reflectance values using the methods described in Davis (2006). Mosaicking the multispectral or panchromatic images started with the image with the highest sun-elevation angle and the least atmospheric scattering, which was treated as the standard image. The band-reflectance values of all other multispectral or panchromatic images within the area were sequentially adjusted to that of the standard image by determining band-reflectance correspondence between overlapping images using linear least-squares analysis. The resolution of the multispectral image mosaic was then increased to that of the panchromatic image mosaic using the SPARKLE logic, which is described in Davis (2006). Each of the four-band images within the resolution-enhanced image mosaic was individually subjected to a local-area histogram stretch algorithm (described in Davis, 2007), which stretches each band’s picture element based on the digital values of all picture elements within a 500-m radius. The final databases, which are provided in this DS, are three-band, color-composite images of the local-area-enhanced, natural-color data (the blue, green, and red wavelength bands) and color-infrared data (the green, red, and near-infrared wavelength bands). All image data were initially projected and maintained in Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) map projection using the target area’s local zone (42 for Kunduz) and the WGS84 datum. The final image mosaics were subdivided into five overlapping tiles or quadrants because of the large size of the target area. The five image tiles (or quadrants) for the Kunduz area are provided as embedded geotiff images, which can be read and used by most geographic information system (GIS) and image-processing software. The tiff world files (tfw) are provided, even though they are generally not needed for most software to read an embedded geotiff image.

Kunduz Mineral District

Correlations of turbidity to suspended-sediment concentration in the Toutle River Basin, near Mount St. Helens, Washington, 2010-11

Researchers at the U.S. Geological Survey, Cascades Volcano Observatory, investigated alternative methods for the traditional sample-based sediment record procedure in determining suspended-sediment concentration (SSC) and discharge. One such sediment-surrogate technique was developed using turbidity and discharge to estimate SSC for two gaging stations in the Toutle River Basin near Mount St. Helens, Washington. To provide context for the study, methods for collecting sediment data and monitoring turbidity are discussed. Statistical methods used include the development of ordinary least squares regression models for each gaging station. Issues of time-related autocorrelation also are evaluated. Addition of lagged explanatory variables was used to account for autocorrelation in the turbidity, discharge, and SSC data. Final regression model equations and plots are presented for the two gaging stations. The regression models support near-real-time estimates of SSC and improved suspended-sediment discharge records by incorporating continuous instream turbidity. Future use of such models may potentially lower the costs of sediment monitoring by reducing time it takes to collect and process samples and to derive a sediment-discharge record.

Washington

Potential effects of climate change on snail kites (Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus) in Florida

The snail kite ( Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus ), an endangered, wetland-dependent raptor, is highly sensitive to changes in hydrology. Climate-driven changes in water level will likely affect snail kite populations—altering reproductive success and survival rates. Identifying the mechanisms mediating the direct and indirect effects of climate on snail kite populations and the range of future climate conditions is important to the conservation of this species. When water levels are low, snail kite nest initiation and nest success decrease owing to decreased availability of their primary prey applesnails ( Pomacea spp.), unstable nesting sites, and increased predator access. Dry events also lead to decreased adult and juvenile survival. In the next 80 years, temperatures and potential evapotranspiration are projected to increase in central and southern Florida. Although future precipitation volume is more uncertain, increased temperatures and evaporative loss may lead to increased frequency, duration, and severity of low-water events. Additionally, rapidly rising water levels have adverse effects on snail kite reproductive success—destroying nests, preventing access to apple snails, and reducing apple snail productivity. Finally, it is likely that future climate will favor more frequent dry conditions and extreme heavy rainfall events, both of which are directly linked to decreased reproductive success and survival. The potential effects of climate change may be buffered by the availability of alternative prey (non-native applesnails) that are more tolerant of anticipated conditions. In highly controlled southern Florida waterbodies, regional water-management decisions may buffer or exacerbate waterbody accession and recession rates.

Florida

Land Disturbance Associated with Oil and Gas Development and Effects of Development-Related Land Disturbance on Dissolved-Solids Loads in Streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin, 1991, 2007, and 2025

Oil and gas resource development in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) has increased substantially since the year 2000. The UCRB encompasses several significant oil and gas producing areas that have the potential for continued oil and gas resource development. Land disturbance associated with oil and gas resource development is caused by activities related to constructing drill pads to contain drilling and well maintenance equipment and roads to access the drill pad. Land disturbed by oil and gas development has the potential to cause increased erosion, stream degradation, habitat fragmentation and alteration, and increase public use of areas that may be environmentally sensitive. Land disturbance resulting from oil and gas resource development has not been monitored and mapped on a regional scale in the UCRB. However, information on the location and age of oil and gas wells in the UCRB is available. These data combined with geographic data analysis and modeling techniques were used to estimate the total area of disturbed land associated with oil and gas resource development in 1991 and in 2007 in the UCRB. Additional information about anticipated oil and gas development in the UCRB was used to project land disturbance to the year 2025. Results of the analysis indicate that approximately 117,500 acres (183 mi2) of total land disturbance was associated with drill pads and related roads in the UCRB in 1991. The estimated area of disturbed land associated with oil and gas development increased 53 percent to 179,400 acres (280 mi2) in 2007. Projecting oil and gas development through 2025 results in a potential near doubling of the land surface disturbance to approximately 319,300 acres (500 mi2). Estimated land disturbance for 1991 and 2007 were input to a contaminant transport model developed for the UCRB to assess the statistical significance of energy-related land disturbance to contributing dissolved solids to basin streams. The statistical assessment was an observational study based on an existing model and available water-quality monitoring data for the basin. No new data were collected for the analysis. The source coefficient calibrated for the disturbed lands associated with oil and gas development in 2007 was zero, which indicated that estimated land disturbance from oil and gas development is not statistically significant in explaining dissolved solids in UCRB streams. The lack of significance in the contaminant transport modeling framework may be due to the amount of available monitoring data, the spatial distribution of monitoring sites with respect to land disturbance, or the overall quantity of land disturbance associated with oil and gas development basin wide. Finally, dissolved-solids loads derived from natural landscapes may be similar to loads derived from lands disturbed by oil and gas resource development. The model recalibration done for this study confirms calibration results from Kenney and others (2009): the most significant contributor to dissolved solids in the UCRB is irrigated agricultural land, which covers an area substantially larger than the estimated area disturbed by oil and gas development and is subjected to artificially applied water.

Scientific Investigations Report

In situ measurements of compressional wave speed during gravity coring operations in the New England mud patch

This paper presents measurements of sediment sound-speed profiles measured in situ using the acoustic coring system (ACS). The reported measurements were obtained from seven gravity cores collected in the New England Mud Patch. The ACS uses two sets of transducers mounted below the penetrating tip of a sediment corer to make in situ measurements of geoacoustic properties as the corer penetrates the seabed. The in situ sound-speed profiles are interpreted in the context of stratigraphic layering measured by a seismic survey, and the measured sound-speed profiles are consistent with the geophysical description. The in situ sound-speed profiles measured by the ACS were compared to conventional measurements of sound speed on the recovered cores using the multisensor core logger (MSCL). The MSCL data displayed both random and systematic errors that were attributed to disturbance from the coring process and/or the handling of the sediments after collection. Finally, using porosity and grain size distributions measured from discrete samples of the cored sediments, the in situ sound-speed measurements were compared to empirical regressions based on independent data sets.

Atlantic Ocean, New England Mud Patch

Williston Basin groundwater availability, United States and Canada

The Williston Basin contains important oil and gas resources for the Nation. Freshwater supplies are limited in this semiarid area, and oil and gas development can require large volumes of freshwater. Groundwater is the primary source of water for many water users in the Williston Basin, so to better understand these resources, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessed the groundwater availability in this area. The final phase of this assessment included a computer model that simulates how groundwater flows in the aquifer systems and simulates how changes in water use and natural conditions may affect the water resources. These results provide a tool for land and water-resource managers to determine how water can be used for multiple purposes in the Williston Basin. For additional information about this assessment and more in-depth descriptions and results, see Long and others (2018).

Williston Basin