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At least 1,135 records · Page 63Linked to original sources

USGS2007

Sea level rise in Tampa Bay

Understanding relative sea level (RSL) rise during periods of rapid climatic change is critical for evaluating modern sea level rise given the vulnerability of Antarctic ice shelves to collapse [ Hodgson et al, 2006], the retreat of the world's glaciers [ Oerlemans, 2005], and mass balance trends of the Greenland ice sheet [ Rignot and Kanagaratnam, 2006]. The first-order pattern of global sea level rise following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼21,000 years ago) is well established from coral [ Fairbanks, 1989], continental shelf [ Hanebuth et al, 2000], and other records [ Pirazzoli, 2000] and has been integrated into a global ICE-5G model of glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA) [ Peltier, 2004]. However, uncertainty introduced by paleo water depth of sea level indicators, radiocarbon chronology (i.e., reservoir corrections for marine shell dates), postglacial isostatic adjustment, and other processes affecting vertical position of former shorelines produces scatter in RSL curves, limiting our knowledge of sea level rise during periods of rapid glacial decay. One example of this limitation is the Gulf of Mexico/Florida region where, despite decades of study, RSL curves produce two conflicting patterns: those showing progressive submergence with a decelerating rate during the past 5000 years [ Scholl et al, 1969] and those showing high sea level during the middle of the Holocene [ Blum et al, 2001; Balsillie and Donoghue, 2004], where the Holocene represents a geologic epoch that extends from about 10,000 years ago to present times. This discrepancy is emblematic of the uncertainty surrounding Holocene sea level and ice volume history in general.

Florida↗

USGS2021

Lake Ontario cisco population dynamics based on long-term surveys

Prior to European settlement, cisco (Coregonus artedi) were likely one of Lake Ontario’s most abundant fishes but currently represent a small portion of the fish community. To understand how the population has changed over the past 70 years we compared trends in annual catch rates from gillnet and bottom trawl surveys and commercial fishery landings. In surveys, cisco were generally rare, and represented 0.2, 0.4, and 0.001% of all fish caught in two gillnet surveys and bottom trawl surveys. Cisco catch rates in gillnets and trawls were positively correlated and correlations increased when gillnet catches two years later were compared to trawls since trawls tended to capture smaller, juvenile-sized cisco relative to gillnets. Survey catch rates suggest recruitment is generally low, but discrete periods of relatively greater recruitment in the 1980s and mid-2010s suggest reproductive conditions for cisco vary temporally. Trawl surveys were the most spatially extensive survey and illustrated catch rates were highest in northeastern Lake Ontario. Greater cisco abundance in this region may be related to more-abundant embayment spawning habitat, greater distance from winter aggregations of nonnative planktivores, or more appropriate environmental conditions during spawing. At the basin scale, Lake Ontario bottom trawl catch per unit effort (CPUE) was positively correlated to Lake Superior trawl CPUE suggesting a regional driver, such as climate, may be similarly impacting both populations. Concurrent patterns across Lake Ontario surveys support the idea that cisco are currently a small portion of the fish community, recruitment remains inconsistent, and habitats in northeastern Lake Ontario appear critical to the remnant populations.

Lake Ontario↗

USGS2005

Trends in streamflow, sedimentation, and sediment chemistry for the Wolf River, Menominee Indian Reservation, Wisconsin, 1850-1999

Historical trends in streamflow, sedimentation, and sediment chemistry of the Wolf River were examined for a 6-mile reach that flows through the southern part of the Menominee Indian Reservation and the northern part of Shawano County, Wis. Trends were examined in the context of effects from dams, climate, and land-cover change. Annual flood peaks and mean monthly flow for the Wolf River were examined for 1907-96 and compared to mean annual and mean monthly precipitation. Analysis of trends in sedimentation (from before about 1850 through 1999) involved collection of cores and elevation data along nine valley transects spanning the Wolf River channel, flood plain, and backwater and impounded areas; radioisotope analyses of impounded sediment cores; and analysis of General Land Office Survey Notes (1853-91). Trends in sediment chemistry were examined by analyzing samples from an impoundment core for minor and trace elements. Annual flood peaks for the Wolf River decreased during 1907-49 but increased during 1950-96, most likely reflecting general changes in upper-atmospheric circulation patterns from more zonal before 1950 to more meridional after 1950. The decrease in flood peaks during 1907-49 may also, in part, be due to forest regrowth. Mean monthly streamflow during 1912-96 increased for the months of February and March but decreased for June and July, suggesting that spring snowmelt occurs earlier in the season than it did in the past. Decreases in early summer flows may be a reflection earlier spring snowmelt and large rainstorms in early spring rather than early summer. These trends also may reflect upper-atmospheric circulation patterns. The Balsam Row Dam impoundment contains up to 10 feet of organic-rich silty clay and has lost much of its storage capacity. Fine sediment has accumulated for 1.8 miles upstream from the Balsam Row Dam. Historical average linear and mass sedimentation rates in the Balsam Row impoundment were 0.09 feet per year and 1.15 pounds per square foot per year for 1927-62 and 0.10 feet per year and 1.04 pounds per square foot per year for 1963-99. Sedimentation in the impoundment was episodic and was associated with large floods, especially the flood-related failure of the Keshena Falls Dam in 1972 and a large flood in 1973. Sand deposition is common in the Wolf River upstream from the impounded reach for 2.5 miles and is caused by the base-level increase associated with the Balsam Row Dam. Some sand deposition also may have been associated with logging and log drives in the late 1800s and the failure of the Keshena Falls Dam. In the upstream 1.5-mile part of the studied reach, the substrate is mainly rocky; however, about 2,000 feet downstream from Keshena Falls, the channel has narrowed and incised since the 1890s, likely related to human alterations associated with logging, log drives, and (or) changes in hydraulics and sediment characteristics associated with completion of the Keshena Falls Dam and head race in 1908. Minor- and trace-element concentrations in sediment from Balsam Row impoundment and other depositional areas along the Wolf River generally reflect background conditions as affected by watershed geology and historical inputs from regional and local atmospheric deposition.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2015

Evaluation of habitat suitability index models by global sensitivity and uncertainty analyses: a case study for submerged aquatic vegetation

Habitat suitability index (HSI) models are commonly used to predict habitat quality and species distributions and are used to develop biological surveys, assess reserve and management priorities, and anticipate possible change under different management or climate change scenarios. Important management decisions may be based on model results, often without a clear understanding of the level of uncertainty associated with model outputs. We present an integrated methodology to assess the propagation of uncertainty from both inputs and structure of the HSI models on model outputs (uncertainty analysis: UA) and relative importance of uncertain model inputs and their interactions on the model output uncertainty (global sensitivity analysis: GSA). We illustrate the GSA/UA framework using simulated hydrology input data from a hydrodynamic model representing sea level changes and HSI models for two species of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) in southwest Everglades National Park: Vallisneria americana (tape grass) and Halodule wrightii (shoal grass). We found considerable spatial variation in uncertainty for both species, but distributions of HSI scores still allowed discrimination of sites with good versus poor conditions. Ranking of input parameter sensitivities also varied spatially for both species, with high habitat quality sites showing higher sensitivity to different parameters than low-quality sites. HSI models may be especially useful when species distribution data are unavailable, providing means of exploiting widely available environmental datasets to model past, current, and future habitat conditions. The GSA/UA approach provides a general method for better understanding HSI model dynamics, the spatial and temporal variation in uncertainties, and the parameters that contribute most to model uncertainty. Including an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in modeling efforts as part of the decision-making framework will result in better-informed, more robust decisions.

Florida↗

USGS2011

Stratigraphy of the Younger Dryas Chronozone and paleoenvironmental implications: Central and Southern Great Plains

The Great Plains of the United States was the setting for some of the earliest research in North America into patterns and changes in the character of late Pleistocene environments and their effects on contemporary human populations. Many localities in the region have well-stratified records of terminal Pleistocene and early Holocene human (Paleoindian) activity and past environments. These have proven important in debates over the character of the Younger Dryas Chronozone (YDC; 11,000–10,000 14 C BP; 12,900–11,700 cal BP) in the continental interior. This paper reviews the lithostratigraphic record of the YDC on the Central and Southern Great Plains and summarizes paleobiological records (largely isotopic). The goal is to determine if there is any uniformity in the timing, character, direction and/or magnitude of changes in depositional environments or broader geomorphic systems before, during or after the YDC in order to address the question of the character of environments through this time. The stratigraphic records of the late Pleistocene to early Holocene transition, and in particular, the stratigraphic records of the YDC vary through time and space. The data clearly show that a host of geomorphic processes produced the terminal Pleistocene and early Holocene stratigraphic records of the Great Plains. Moreover, the YDC is not necessarily manifest as a distinct lithostratigraphic or biostratigraphic entity in these different types of deposits and soils. The various geomorphic systems of the Great Plains did not behave synchronously in response to any common climate driver. These stratigraphic records reflect local environmental conditions and probably a complex response to the reorganization of mid-latitude climates in the terminal Pleistocene and early Holocene.

Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, Okl↗

USGS2009

Effects of hydrologic infrastructure on flow regimes of California's Central Valley rivers: Implications for fish populations

Alteration of natural flow regimes is generally acknowledged to have negative effects on native biota; however, methods for defining ecologically appropriate flow regimes in managed river systems are only beginning to be developed. Understanding how past and present water management has affected rivers is an important part of developing such tools. In this paper, we evaluate how existing hydrologic infrastructure and management affect streamflow characteristics of rivers in the Central Valley, California and discuss those characteristics in the context of habitat requirements of native and alien fishes. We evaluated the effects of water management by comparing observed discharges with estimated discharges assuming no water management ("full natural runoff"). Rivers in the Sacramento River drainage were characterized by reduced winter–spring discharges and augmented discharges in other months. Rivers in the San Joaquin River drainage were characterized by reduced discharges in all months but particularly in winter and spring. Two largely unaltered streams had hydrographs similar to those based on full natural runoff of the regulated rivers. The reduced discharges in the San Joaquin River drainage streams are favourable for spawning of many alien species, which is consistent with observed patterns of fish distribution and abundance in the Central Valley. However, other factors, such as water temperature, are also important to the relative success of native and alien resident fishes. As water management changes in response to climate change and societal demands, interdisciplinary programs of research and monitoring will be essential for anticipating effects on fishes and to avoid unanticipated ecological outcomes.

California↗

USGS2024

U.S. Geological Survey Karst Interest Group proceedings, Nashville, Tennessee, October 22-24, 2024

Karst hydrogeologic systems represent challenging and unique conditions to scientists studying groundwater flow and contaminant transport. Karst terrains are characterized by distinct and beautiful landscapes, caverns, and springs, and many of the exceptional karst areas are designated as national or state parks. The range and complexity of landforms and groundwater flow systems associated with karst terrains are enormous, perhaps more than any other aquifer type. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Karst Interest Group (KIG), formed in 2000, is a loosely knit, grassroots organization of USGS and non-USGS scientists and researchers devoted to fostering better communication among scientists working on, or interested in, karst aquifers. The primary mission of the KIG is to encourage and support interdisciplinary collaboration and technology transfer among scientists working in karst areas. To accomplish its mission, the KIG has organized a series of workshops. To date (2024), nine KIG workshops, including the workshop documented in this report, have been held. The abstracts and extended abstracts provide a snapshot in time of past and current karst related studies. The USGS Water Availability and Use Science Program funded the workshop and proceedings. The planning committee for the ninth workshop includes Thomas D. Byl (USGS and Tennessee State University), Allan K. Clark (USGS), Laura M. DeMott (USGS), Eve L. Kuniansky (USGS, Emeritus), Benjamin V. Miller (USGS), and Lawrence E. Spangler (USGS, Emeritus). The workshop proceedings are edited by Eve L. Kuniansky and Lawrence E. Spangler. The field trip guide was produced by Benjamin V. Miller and Brian Ham (Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation) and included in the proceedings from the KIG’s 2021 virtual workshop to be used on the optional field trip held on Thursday, October 24, 2024.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2024

Combining terrestrial lidar with single line transects to investigate geomorphic change: A case study on the Upper Verde River, Arizona

The Upper Verde River in northern Arizona, USA is a vital resource for the wildlife and humans that rely on its waters. We characterize the riparian corridor topography using terrestrial laser scanner (TLS) data from 2021 to 2022. We also quantify geomorphic changes associated with human and climate-driven alterations in river flow and vegetation changes by combining the contemporary lidar surveys with legacy measurements from single line geomorphology transects measured by the United States Forest Service (USFS) in 2009. Seventeen plots along the Upper Verde River were surveyed with the TLS and the data were coregistered within individual plots with a Root Mean Square Error of <0.03 m among scan positions. Digital Elevation Models (DEM) were derived for each plot from the TLS data at 10 cm resolution and compared to the 2009 USFS cross-section data to quantify elevation changes. In areas with statistically significant change, we detected maximum changes in elevation due to erosion and deposition of −0.37 m and + 0.97 m, respectively. Topographic changes over the 13-year period were predominately aggradation and associated with sediment deposition, which we hypothesize might have resulted from altered river flow and vegetation encroachment. This study also demonstrates a quantitative and statistical methodology to fuse traditional single line cross-section data with contemporary lidar data to quantify geomorphic change. The novel approach demonstrated here is broadly applicable to natural resource managers for integrating and contextualizing legacy topographic data for understanding past, present, and future landscape and habitat changes.

Arizona↗

USGS2016

Use of mussel casts from archaeological sites as paleoecological indicators: An example from CA-MRN-254, Marin County, Alta California

Archaeological investigations at prehistoric site CA-MRN-254 at the Dominican University of California in Marin County, California, revealed evidence of Native American occupation spanning the past 1,800 years. A dominant source of food for the inhabitants in the San Francisco Bay area was the intertidal, quiet-water dwelling blue mussel ( Mytilus trossulus ), although rare occurrences of the open coast-dwelling California mussel ( Mytilus californianus ) suggest that this species was also utilized sporadically. On rare occasions, cultural horizons at this site contain abundant sediment-filled casts of the smaller mussel Modiolus sp. These casts were formed soon after death when the shells filled with sediment and were roasted along with living bivalve shellfish for consumption. Thin sections of these mussel casts display sedimentological and microbiological constituents that shed light on the paleoenvironmental conditions when they were alive. Fine-grained sediment and pelletal muds comprising these casts suggest that the mussels were collected in a low energy, inner bay environment. The rare presence of the diatoms Triceratium dubium and Thalassionema nitzschioides indicate more normal marine (35 psu) and possibly warmer conditions than presently exist in San Francisco Bay. Radiocarbon dating of charcoal associated with the mussel casts containing these diatoms correlates with a 600-year period of warming from ca. A.D. 700–1300, known as the Medieval Climatic Anomaly. Results of this mussel cast study demonstrate that they have great potential for providing paleoenvironmental information at this and other archaeological sites.

California↗

USGS2018

Agriculture

Agricultural production is a fundamental activity conducted on 45% of the U.S. land area, 55% of Mexico’s land area, and 7% of Canada’s land area (World Bank 2016). Because of this vast spatial extent and the strong role that land management plays in how agricultural ecosystems function, agricultural lands and activities represent a large portion of the North American carbon budget. Accordingly, improved quantification of the agricultural carbon cycle, new trends in agriculture, and added opportunities for emissions reductions provide a critical foundation for considering the relationships between agriculture and carbon cycling at local, regional, continental, and global scales. More than 145 countries have specifically included agriculture in their targets and actions for mitigating climate change (FAO 2016), and agriculture has featured particularly prominently in recent target and action commitments made by developing countries to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (Richards et al., 2015). Conversion of vast native forest and prairie to agriculture across North America between 1860 and 1960 resulted in carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes to the atmosphere from biota and soils that exceeded those from fossil fuel emissions over the same period (Houghton et al., 1983). Correspondingly, soil organic carbon (SOC) declined in many soils during the 50 years following conversion from native ecosystems to production agriculture (Huggins et al., 1998; Janzen et al., 1998; Slobodian et al., 2002). Crop yields and corresponding above- and belowground biomass have steadily increased since the 1930s due to genetic and management innovations, which provide more organic input from which to build SOC ( Johnson et al., 2006; Hatfield and Walthall 2015). This, coupled with improved input-use efficiencies may reduce GHG-emissions per unit yield (GHG intensity), with additional improvements possible through management optimization (Grassini and Cassman 2012; Pittelkow et al., 2015). Options include reducing tillage, integrating perennials onto the landscape, reducing or eliminating bare-fallow land (i.e., land without living plants), adding cover crops, and enrolling lands in conservation easement programs. These options, originally proposed to control erosion, have potential co-benefits in terms of increased soil health, plant productivity, and soil carbon stabilization (Lehman et al., 2015). Conversely, returning lands previously enrolled in conservation easements (e.g., the Conservation Reserve Program [CRP] and other land set-aside efforts) to row-crop production, tillage, or aggressive harvesting of crop residues all risk degrading soil quality and exacerbating SOC loss. Of note is that the net results of land use and land management practices in an agricultural setting vary according to many factors, such as crop or production system type, soil type, climate, and the collection of practices at any given site. For example, many traditional practices followed by Indigenous people on tribal lands are based on an integrated approach to natural resource management and response to environmental change that may provide agricultural options uniquely suited to varied environmental settings (see Ch. 7: Tribal Lands, p. 303). Agricultural land in the United States totaled 408.2 million hectares (ha) in 2014, of which 251 million ha were in permanent meadows and pastures, 152.2 million ha were in arable land, and 2.6 million ha were in permanent crops (FAOSTAT 2016). Compared with the distribution in 2007, these numbers reflect a 4.7 million ha decline in total agricultural lands, driven by declines in arable land and permanent crops but partially offset by a modest increase in permanent meadows and pastures. Although arable lands have been declining, the combined acreage of the four major crops (corn, wheat, soybeans, and cotton) has risen slightly, with increases in land planted in corn and soybeans and decreases in cotton and wheat (see Figure 5.1, p. 232). Despite the overall slight decline in agricultural land area, the value of U.S. agricultural production rose over the past decade as a result of increased production efficiency and higher prices (USDA 2017a; see also www.ers.usda.gov). Canada has about 65 million ha of agricultural land, of which about 46 million ha are arable, accounting for only about 7% of the country’s total land area (FAOSTAT 2017). Prominent crops on Canada’s arable lands include cereals (e.g., wheat, barley, and maize), oilseeds (e.g., canola and soybeans), and pulses (e.g., peas and lentils). Natural and seeded pastures available for grazing in Canada make up about 20 million ha (Legesse et al., 2016). Agricultural land in Mexico makes up 107 million ha, of which 23 million ha are arable land, 2.7 million ha are permanent crops, and 81 million ha are permanent meadows and pastures (FAOSTAT 2017). Mexico’s major crops are fruits, corn, grains, vegetables, and sugarcane.

Report↗

USGS2013

Human effects on the hydrologic system of the Verde Valley, central Arizona, 1910–2005 and 2005–2110, using a regional groundwater flow model

Water budgets were developed for the Verde Valley of central Arizona in order to evaluate the degree to which human stresses have affected the hydrologic system and might affect it in the future. The Verde Valley is a portion of central Arizona wherein concerns have been raised about water availability, particularly perennial base flow of the Verde River. The Northern Arizona Regional Groundwater Flow Model (NARGFM) was used to generate the water budgets and was run in several configurations for the 1910–2005 and 2005–2110 time periods. The resultant water budgets were subtracted from one another in order to quantify the relative changes that were attributable solely to human stresses; human stresses included groundwater withdrawals and incidental and artificial recharge but did not include, for example, human effects on the global climate. Three hypothetical and varied conditions of human stresses were developed and applied to the model for the 2005–2110 period. On the basis of this analysis, human stresses during 1910–2005 were found to have already affected the hydrologic system of the Verde Valley, and human stresses will continue to affect the hydrologic system during 2005–2110. Riparian evapotranspiration decreased and underflow into the Verde Valley increased because of human stresses, and net groundwater discharge to the Verde River in the Verde Valley decreased for the 1910–2005 model runs. The model also showed that base flow at the upstream end of the study area, as of 2005, was about 4,900 acre-feet per year less than it would have been in the absence of human stresses. At the downstream end of the Verde Valley, base flow had been reduced by about 10,000 acre-feet per year by the year 2005 because of human stresses. For the 2005–2110 period, the model showed that base flow at the downstream end of the Verde Valley may decrease by an additional 5,400 to 8,600 acre-feet per year because of past, ongoing, and hypothetical future human stresses. The process known as capture (or streamflow depletion caused by the pumping of groundwater) was the reason for these human-stress-induced changes in water-budget components.

Arizona↗

USGS2010

Changes in prevalence of avian malaria on the Alakai`i Plateau, Kaua`i. Hawai`i

We determined prevalence of malarial infections in samples of native and non-native forest birds that were sampled at three locations on the Alaka`i Plateau between 1994-1997 and again between 2007-2009. The three sites spanned the elevational range of the plateau and were located at Kawaikōī Stream (1100 m), the upper drainage of Mōhihi Stream (1250 m) and the vicinity of Halepa`akai Stream near Sincock’s Bog (1350 m). We detected a dramatic and significant increase in prevalence of avian malaria both at the lower (Kawaikōī) and upper (Halepa`akai) ends of the Alaka`i Plateau during the past decade. Overall prevalence of infection increased threefold from 11% to 30% at Kawaikōī Stream and tenfold from 2% to 20% at Halepa`akai Stream. Much of this increase is likely a result of local transmission, since two sedentary native species, `Elepaio and Kaua`i `Amakihi, have experienced some of the largest increases in prevalence. Curiously, prevalence has not changed significantly at Mōhihi Stream and remains at approximately 10%. We also detected avian trypanosomes ( Trypanosoma sp. ) in both recent and historic blood samples from Nutmeg Mannikins ( Lonchura punctulata ) that were captured on the plateau. This is the first report of this mosquito-transmitted blood protozoan from the Hawaiian Islands and evidence indicates that it has been a previously undetected blood parasite in the islands for at least 15 years and likely longer. We found no evidence to indicate that the parasite has spread to native Hawaiian forest birds, but our sample sizes are limited. While our study was not designed to detect the specific factors responsible for the changes in prevalence of malaria at lower and upper portions of the plateau, the results are consistent with predicted increases in prevalence that might be expected in a warming climate and clearly show that environmental conditions necessary to support transmission of malaria now exist throughout major portions of the Alaka`i Plateau. Additional field work to identify larval habitat for mosquitoes, adult mosquito distribution and density, and the relative role of human activity, feral ungulates, and interactions between changing climatic conditions and the deeply dissected topography of the plateau may help to identify why some areas have experienced significant increases in malarial prevalence.

Hawaii↗

USGS2017

Historical changes in organic matter input to the muddy sediments along the Zhejiang-Fujian Coast, China over the past 160 years

The burial of sedimentary organic matter (SOM) in the large river-influenced estuarine-coastal regions is affected by hydrodynamic sorting, diagenesis and human activities. Typically, the inner shelf region of the East China Sea is a major carbon sink of the Yangtze River-derived fine-grained sediments. Most of the previous work concentrated on the studies of surface sediments or used a single-proxy in this region. In this study, two cores from the Zhejiang-Fujian Coast were analyzed using bulk (TOC, TN and δ 13 C TOC ) and molecular biomarker ( n -alkane, brassicasterol, dinosterol and glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether lipids) techniques to clarify the sources, spatiotemporal distribution and fate of SOM in the Yangtze River Estuary and adjacent shelf. Results from this study indicated that the effects of diagenesis and diffusion on different sedimentary biomarkers resulted in overestimation of the relative contribution of terrestrial organic matter (%OM terr ), compared with those based on δ 13 C TOC . The amounts of terrestrial plant organic matter (OM plant ) and%OM terr in sediments decreased offshore. In contrast, the amounts of marine organic matter (OM marine ) increased offshore, but closer to the Yangtze River mouth, the amounts of soil organic matter (OM soil ) increased. Moreover, the amounts of TOC, OM plant and OM marine biomarkers increased, but OM soil and%OM terr decreased over time in recent decades. Our study suggests that spatial organic matter distribution patterns in marine shelf sediments were controlled primarily by hydrodynamic sorting and nutrient concentrations, and temporally diverse patterns were controlled predominantly by anthropogenic influence (e.g., dam construction and soil conservation, reclamation and agricultural plantations, anthropogenic nutrient input, dust storms, eutrophication, etc) and climate events (e.g., interdecadal climatic jump and heavy rain events) in the geological period.

Zhejiang-Fujian Coast↗

USGS2006

Land-Cover Trends of the Central Basin and Range Ecoregion

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Land Cover Trends research project is focused on understanding the amounts, rates, trends, causes, and implications of contemporary land-use and land-cover (LU/LC) change in the United States. This project is supported by the USGS Geographic Analysis and Monitoring Program in collaboration with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). LU/LC change is a pervasive process that modifies landscape characteristics and affects a broad range of socioeconomic, biologic, and hydrologic systems. Understanding the impacts and feedbacks of LU/LC change on environmental systems requires an understanding of the rates, patterns, and driving forces of past, present, and future LU/LC change. The objectives of the Land Cover Trends project are to (1) determine and describe the amount, rates, and trends of contemporary LU/LC change by ecoregion for the period 1973-2000 for the conterminous United States, (2) document the causes, driving forces, and implications of change, and (3) synthesize individual ecoregion results into a national assessment of LU/LC change. The Land Cover Trends research team includes staff from the USGS National Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS), Rocky Mountain Geographic Science Center, Eastern Geographic Science Center, Mid-Continent Geographic Science Center, and the Western Geographic Science Center. Other partners include researchers at South Dakota State University, University of Southern Mississippi, and State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry. This report presents an assessment of LU/LC change in the Central Basin and Range ecoregion for the period 1973-2000. The Central Basin and Range ecoregion is one of 84 Level-III ecoregions as defined by the Environmental Protection Agency. Ecoregions have served as a spatial framework for environmental resource management and to denote areas that contain a geographically distinct assemblage of biotic and abiotic phenomena including geology, physiography, vegetation, climate, soils, land use, wildlife, and hydrology. The established Land Cover Trends methodology generates estimates of LU/LC change using a probability sampling approach and change-detection analysis of thematic land-cover images derived from Landsat satellite imagery.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2016

Cross-seasonal effects on waterfowl productivity: Implications under climate change

Previous efforts to relate winter-ground precipitation to subsequent reproductive success as measured by the ratio of juveniles to adults in the autumn failed to account for increased vulnerability of juvenile ducks to hunting and uncertainty in the estimated age ratio. Neglecting increased juvenile vulnerability will positively bias the mean productivity estimate, and neglecting increased vulnerability and estimation uncertainty will positively bias the year-to-year variance in productivity because raw age ratios are the product of sampling variation, the year-specific vulnerability, and year-specific reproductive success. Therefore, we estimated the effects of cumulative winter precipitation in the California Central Valley and the Mississippi Alluvial Valley on pintail ( Anas acuta ) and mallard ( Anas platyrhnchos ) reproduction, respectively, using hierarchical Bayesian methods to correct for sampling bias in productivity estimates and observation error in covariates. We applied the model to a hunter-collected parts survey implemented by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service and band recoveries reported to the United States Geological Survey Bird Banding Laboratory using data from 1961 to 2013. We compared our results to previous estimates that used simple linear regression on uncorrected age ratios from a smaller subset of years in pintail (1961–1985). Like previous analyses, we found large and consistent effects of population size and wetland conditions in prairie Canada on mallard productivity, and large effects of population size and mean latitude of the observed breeding population on pintail productivity. Unlike previous analyses, we report a large amount of uncertainty in the estimated effects of wintering-ground precipitation on pintail and mallard productivity, with considerable uncertainty in the sign of the estimated main effect, although the posterior medians of precipitation effects were consistent with past studies. We found more consistent estimates in the sign of an interaction effect between population size and precipitation, suggesting that wintering-ground precipitation has a larger effect in years of high population size, especially for pintail. When we used the estimated effects in a population model to derive a sustainable harvest and population size projection (i.e., a yield curve), there was considerable uncertainty in the effect of increased or decreased wintering-ground precipitation on sustainable harvest potential and population size. These results suggest that the mechanism of cross-seasonal effects between winter habitat and reproduction in ducks occurs through a reduction in the strength of density dependence in years of above-average wintering-ground precipitation. We suggest additional investigation of the underlying mechanisms and that habitat managers and decision-makers consider the level of uncertainty in these estimates when attempting to integrate habitat management and harvest management decisions. Collection of annual data on the status of wintering-ground habitat in a rigorous sampling framework would likely be the most direct way to improve understanding of mechanisms and inform management.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2011

A westward extension of the warm pool leads to a westward extension of the Walker circulation, drying eastern Africa

Observations and simulations link anthropogenic greenhouse and aerosol emissions with rapidly increasing Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Over the past 60 years, the Indian Ocean warmed two to three times faster than the central tropical Pacific, extending the tropical warm pool to the west by ~40° longitude (>4,000 km). This propensity toward rapid warming in the Indian Ocean has been the dominant mode of interannual variability among SSTs throughout the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans (55°E–140°W) since at least 1948, explaining more variance than anomalies associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the atmosphere, the primary mode of variability has been a corresponding trend toward greatly increased convection and precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean. The temperature and rainfall increases in this region have produced a westward extension of the western, ascending branch of the atmospheric Walker circulation. Diabatic heating due to increased mid-tropospheric water vapor condensation elicits a westward atmospheric response that sends an easterly flow of dry air aloft toward eastern Africa. In recent decades (1980–2009), this response has suppressed convection over tropical eastern Africa, decreasing precipitation during the ‘long-rains’ season of March–June. This trend toward drought contrasts with projections of increased rainfall in eastern Africa and more ‘El Niño-like’ conditions globally by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Increased Indian Ocean SSTs appear likely to continue to strongly modulate the Warm Pool circulation, reducing precipitation in eastern Africa, regardless of whether the projected trend in ENSO is realized. These results have important food security implications, informing agricultural development, environmental conservation, and water resource planning.

Climate Dynamics↗

USGS2019

Salt marsh ecosystem restructuring enhances elevation resilience and carbon storage during accelerating relative sea-level rise

Salt marshes respond to sea-level rise through a series of complex and dynamic bio-physical feedbacks. In this study, we found that sea-level rise triggered salt marsh habitat restructuring, with the associated vegetation changes enhancing salt marsh elevation resilience. A continuous record of marsh elevation relative to sea level that includes reconstruction of high-resolution, sub-decadal, marsh elevation over the past century, coupled with a lower-resolution 1500-year record, revealed that relative sea-level rose 1.5 ± 0.4 m, following local glacial isostatic adjustment (1.2 mm/yr). As sea-level rise has rapidly accelerated, the high marsh zone dropped 11 cm within the tidal frame since 1932, leading to greater inundation and a shift to flood- and salt-tolerant low marsh species. Once the marsh platform fell to the elevation favored by low-marsh Spartina alterniflora , the elevation stabilized relative to sea level. Currently low marsh accretion keeps pace with sea-level rise, while present day high marsh zones that have not transitioned to low marsh have a vertical accretion deficit. Greater biomass productivity, and an expanding subsurface accommodation space favorable for salt marsh organic matter preservation, provide a positive feed-back between sea-level rise and marsh platform elevation. Carbon storage was 46 ± 28 g C/m 2 /yr from 550 to 1800 CE, increasing to 129 ± 50 g C/m 2 /yr in the last decade. Enhanced carbon storage is controlled by vertical accretion rates, rather than soil carbon density, and is a direct response to anthropogenic eustatic sea-level rise, ultimately providing a negative feedback on climate warming.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2004

Tree-ring-based reconstruction of precipitation in the Bighorn Basin, Wyoming, since 1260 A.D

Cores and cross sections from 79 Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and limber pine (Pinus flexilis) trees at four sites in the Bighorn Basin of north-central Wyoming and south-central Montana were used to develop a proxy for annual (June-June) precipitation spanning 1260-1998 A.D. The reconstruction exhibits considerable nonstationarity, and the instrumental era (post-1900) in particular fails to capture the full range of precipitation variability experienced in the past ???750 years. Both single-year and decadal-scale dry events were more severe before 1900. Dry spells in the late thirteenth and sixteenth centuries surpass both magnitude and duration of any droughts in the Bighorn Basin after 1900. Precipitation variability appears to shift to a higher-frequency mode after 1750, with 15-20-yr droughts becoming rare. Comparisons between instrumental and reconstructed values of precipitation and indices of Pacific basin variability reveal that precipitation in the Bighorn Basin generally responds to Pacific forcing in a manner similar to that of the southwestern United States (drier during La Nin??a events), but high country precipitation in areas surrounding the basin displays the opposite response (drier during El Nin??o events). ?? 2004 American Meteorological Society.

Journal of Climate↗