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Chemistry & migration mysteries: Fur holds clues to previous journeys

The bat was not only pregnant but downright angry as I snipped a bit of fur from her back. Within a few seconds, however, she flapped her powerful wings, took off from my hand and disappeared into the night, rejoining thousands of female hoary bats ( Lasiurus cinereus ) on their migration through the mountains of New Mexico. Every spring, hundreds of these expectant mothers pass through this small stream drainage on their way to birthing grounds farther east. Their annual passage was first reported here more than 30 years ago, and it is still one of the few known migration corridors in the area. My task that night was simple: catch hoary bats and snip tiny samples of fur from their thick coats, then let them continue on their way. The explanation, however, is a bit more complicated.

BATS Magazine

A review of sediment budget imbalances along Fire Island, New York: Can nearshore geologic framework and patterns of shoreline change explain the deficit?

Sediment budget analyses conducted for annual to decadal timescales report variable magnitudes of littoral transport along the south shore of Long Island, New York. It is well documented that the primary transport component is directed alongshore from east to west, but relatively little information has been reported concerning the directions or magnitudes of cross-shore components. Our review of budget calculations for the Fire Island coastal compartment (between Moriches and Fire Island Inlets) indicates an average deficit of 217,700 m3/y. Updrift shoreline erosion, redistribution of nourishment fills, and reworking of inner-shelf deposits have been proposed as the potential sources of additional sediment needed to rectify budget residuals. Each of these sources is probably relevant over various spatial and temporal scales, but previous studies of sediment texture and provenance, inner-shelf geologic mapping, and beach profile comparison indicate that reworking of inner-shelf deposits is the source most likely to resolve budget discrepancies over the broadest scales. This suggests that an onshore component of sediment transport is likely more important along Fire Island than previously thought. Our discussion focuses on relations between geomorphology, inner-shelf geologic framework, and historic shoreline change along Fire Island and the potential pathways by which reworked, inner-shelf sediments are likely transported toward the shoreline.

Journal of Coastal Research

Stream measurement work: Chapter 7 in Fifteenth biennial report of the State Engineer to the governor of Utah: 1925-1926

The general stream measurement work has been continued during the biennium by the United States Geological Survey under cooperative agreement with the State Engineer. This agreement is essentially the same as that outlined in previous reports and the details of the stream gauging operations carried on under these agreements can be found in the biennial reports of the State Engineer. The data collected are published in the annual water supply papers of the United States Geological Survey which contain stream flow records for the whole United States including Alaska and Hawaii. For convenience and uniformity in publications the United States has been divided into 12 primary drainage basins and the results of stream measurements are published annually in a series of progress reports that correspond to these twelve divisions. Data for Utah appear in two of these: the Great Basin and the Colorado River basin reports. A complete set of these publications is on fine at the district office of the Geological Survey, 313 Federal Building, Salt Lake City, where the data in advance of publication are also available.

Utah

Evaluation of fish passage for assessment of invasive carp deterrents at locks in the upper Mississippi River

Invasive carps are established in the upper, middle, and lower Mississippi River and their expansion upstream threatens a variety of aquatic ecosystem services including fishing and recreational boating. The physical and operational characteristics of Lock and Dam (LD) 19 restrict upstream movement of fishes because the only upstream fish passage route is through the lock chamber. This restriction might be hindering consistent reproduction and recruitment of invasive carps enough to reduce their abundance upstream from LD 19. Locks and Dams 5, 14, and 15 (upriver from LD 19) are infrequently at open-condition and may also be limiting the continued upstream expansion of invasive carps. Upstream passage of fishes at these locations would be limited to the lock chamber for the majority of the year (Wilcox et al. 2004; Bouska 2021).

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin

Model-Based Predictions of the Effects of Harvest Mortality on Population Size and Trend of Yellow-Billed Loons

Yellow-billed loons (Gavia adamsii) breed in low densities in northern tundra habitats in Alaska, Canada, and Russia. They migrate to coastal marine habitats at mid to high latitudes where they spend their winters. Harvest may occur throughout the annual cycle, but of particular concern are recent reports of harvest from the Bering Strait region, which lies between Alaska and Russia and is an area used by yellow-billed loons during migration. Annual harvest for this region was reported to be 317, 45, and 1,077 during 2004, 2005, and 2007, respectively. I developed a population model to assess the effect of this reported harvest on population size and trend of yellow-billed loons. Because of the uncertainty regarding actual harvest and definition of the breeding population(s) affected by this harvest, I considered 25 different scenarios. Predicted trends across these 25 scenarios ranged from stability to rapid decline (24 percent per year) with halving of the population in 3 years. Through an assessment of literature and unpublished satellite tracking data, I suggest that the most likely of these 25 scenarios is one where the migrant population subjected to harvest in the Bering Strait includes individuals from breeding populations in Alaska (Arctic coastal plain and the Kotzebue region) and eastern Russia, and for which the magnitude of harvest varies among years and emulates the annual variation of reported harvest during 2004-07 (317, 45, and 1,077 yellow-billed loons). This scenario, which assumes no movement of Canadian breeders through the Bering Strait, predicts a 4.6 percent rate of annual population decline, which would halve the populations in 15 years. Although these model outputs reflect the best available information, confidence in these predictions and applicable scenarios would be greatly enhanced by more information on harvest, rates of survival and reproduction, and migratory pathways.

Open-File Report

Ground-water quality data for Oklahoma, 1981

The U.S. Geological Survey has collected data on Oklahoma's ground-water resources since 1934. Most of these data were collected as part of specific ground-water studies conducted in cooperation with various Federal, State, and local agencies. Ground-water quality data, as well as data on construction, yield, water levels, and other physical well parameters collected prior to 1981 are available from the U.S. Geological Survey, Oklahoma District Office. Although water-quality data for wells, test holes, and springs have been published, they are scattered though a variety of reports and are not readily available on a statewide basis. The purpose of this report is to make available, annually, all of the ground-water quality data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in the Sate of Oklahoma. This report contains ground-water quality data collected in 1981 from 524 sites in 15 counties, predominately in eastern Oklahoma.

Open-File Report

Peak streamflow trends in Illinois and their relation to changes in climate, water years 1921–2020

This report characterizes changes in peak streamflow in Illinois and the relation of these changes to climatic variability, and provides a foundation for future studies that can address nonstationarity in peak-flow frequency analysis in Illinois. Records of annual peak and daily streamflow at streamgages and gridded monthly climatic data (observed and modeled) were examined across four trend periods (100 years, water years 1921–2020; 75 years, 1946–2020; 50 years, 1971–2020; 30 years 1991–2020) for trends, change points, and other statistical properties indicative of changing conditions. Median peak streamflows generally exhibit upward trends across the State for the 100- and 75-year trend periods and in northern and southern Illinois for the 50- and 30-year trend periods. The medians of the trend magnitudes (normalized by median peak streamflow) range from a 23-percent increase during the 30-year trend period to a 41-percent increase during the 100-year trend period. Streamgages with trends in peak streamflow often also have change points, or abrupt changes, in streamflow magnitude. More than two-thirds of streamgages at the 100- and 75-year trend periods exhibit a trend and change point in median peak streamflow in the same direction. Temporally, clusters of change points are observed in the late 1960s through early 1980s for the 100- and 75-year trend periods and around 2006 for the 50- and 30-year trend periods. Trends in the 90-percent quantile of peak streamflow, which correspond to the 10-percent exceedance probability often used for the design of drainage structures, increased about the same amount as the 50-percent quantile peak streamflows, except at the 100-year trend period, where the 50-percent quantile peak flow increased more for almost all streamgages. The frequency of high flows has also increased in Illinois, with increases in peaks-over-threshold observed across much of the State for the 100- and 75-year trend periods and in northern and southern Illinois for the 50- and 30-year trend periods. Upward trends in observed temperature and observed annual precipitation dominate in all trend periods, with clusters of likely upward trends observed in northern and southern Illinois at the 50- and 30-year trend periods. As expected in response to increasing temperature, the modeled proportion of precipitation falling as snow has largely decreased in the study basins across the State, and modeled potential evapotranspiration has increased. Upward trends in modeled annual runoff, which in this report incorporates only the effects of climatic variation, are observed in the same geographic areas where there are increases in observed annual precipitation. The widespread upward trends in the magnitude of median peak streamflows and the frequency with which high flows occur across the State at the 100- and 75-year trend periods and in northern and southern Illinois at the 50- and 30-year trend periods appear to be driven largely by increases in precipitation based on spatial patterns of these changes and statistical relations between streamflow and climate metrics. Other effects not considered in this report, like urbanization, may be important drivers for certain streamgages in the State. The prevalence of nonstationarity in peak streamflow in Illinois has important implications for peak-flow frequency analysis. Average annual precipitation and the occurrence of extreme precipitation events are expected to increase across the State. If precipitation continues to increase as expected, peak-flow frequency estimates based on older records may no longer represent the hydrologic regime of today, and methods for nonstationary peak-flow frequency analysis may be needed.

Illinois

Annual exceedance probabilities and trends for peak streamflows and annual runoff volumes for the Central United States during the 2011 floods

During 2011, excess precipitation resulted in widespread flooding in the Central United States with 33 fatalities and approximately $4.2 billion in damages reported in the Red River of the North, Souris, and Mississippi River Basins. At different times from late February 2011 through September 2011, various rivers in these basins had major flooding, with some locations having multiple rounds of flooding. This report provides broadscale characterizations of annual exceedance probabilities and trends for peak streamflows and annual runoff volumes for selected streamgages in the Central United States in areas affected by 2011 flooding. Annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) were analyzed for 321 streamgages for annual peak streamflow and for 211 streamgages for annual runoff volume. Some of the most exceptional flooding was for the Souris River Basin, where of 11 streamgages considered for AEP analysis of peak streamflow, flood peaks in 2011 exceeded the next largest peak of record by at least double for 6 of the longest-term streamgages (75 to 108 years of peak-flow record). AEPs for these six streamgages were less than 1 percent. AEPs for 2011 runoff volumes were less than 1 percent for all seven Souris River streamgages considered for AEP analysis. Magnitudes of 2011 runoff volumes exceeded previous maxima by double or more for 5 of the 7 streamgages (record lengths 52 to 108 years). For the Red River of the North Basin, AEPs for 2011 runoff volumes were exceptional, with two streamgages having AEPs less than 0.2 percent, five streamgages in the range of 0.2 to 1 percent, and four streamgages in the range of 1 to 2 percent. Magnitudes of 2011 runoff volumes also were exceptional, with all 11 of the aforementioned streamgages eclipsing previous long-term (62 to 110 years) annual maxima by about one-third or more. AEPs for peak streamflows in the upper Mississippi River Basin were not exceptional, with no AEPs less than 1 percent. AEPs for annual runoff volumes indicated less frequent recurrence, with 11 streamgages having AEPs of less than 1 percent. The 2011 runoff volume for streamgage 05331000 (at Saint Paul, Minnesota) exceeded the previous record (112 years of record) by about 24 percent. An especially newsworthy feature was prolonged flooding along the main stem of the Missouri River downstream from Garrison Dam (located upstream from Bismarck, North Dakota) and extending downstream throughout the length of the Missouri River. The 2011 runoff volume for streamgage 06342500 (at Bismarck) exceeded the previous (1975) maximum by about 50 percent, with an associated AEP in the range of 0.2 to 1 percent. In the Ohio River Basin, peak-streamflow AEPs were less than 2 percent for only four streamgages. Runoff-volume AEPs were less than 2 percent for only three streamgages. Along the lower Mississippi River, the largest streamflow peak in 91 years was recorded for streamgage 07289000 (at Vicksburg, Mississippi), with an associated AEP of 0.8 percent. Trends in peak streamflow were analyzed for 98 streamgages, with 67 streamgages having upward trends, 31 with downward trends, and zero with no trend. Trends in annual runoff volume were analyzed for 182 streamgages, with 145 streamgages having upward trends, 36 with downward trends, and 1 with no trend. The trend analyses used descriptive methods that did not include measures of statistical significance. A dichotomous spatial distribution in trends was apparent for both peak streamflow and annual runoff volume, with a small number of streamgages in the northwestern part of the study area having downward trends and most streamgages in the eastern part of the study area having upward trends.

Professional Paper

Generalized estimates from streamflow data of annual and seasonal ground-water-recharge rates for drainage basins in New Hampshire

This report presents regression equations to estimate generalized annual and seasonal ground-water-recharge rates in drainage basins in New Hampshire. The ultimate source of water for a ground-water withdrawal is aquifer recharge from a combination of precipitation on the aquifer, ground-water flow from upland basin areas, and infiltration from streambeds to the aquifer. An assessment of ground-water availability in a basin requires that recharge rates be estimated under `normal' conditions and under assumed drought conditions. Recharge equations were developed by analyzing streamflow, basin characteristics, and precipitation at 55 unregulated continuous record stream-gaging stations in New Hampshire and in adjacent states. In the initial step, streamflow records were analyzed to estimate a series of annual and seasonal ground-water-recharge components of streamflow in each drainage basin evaluated in this study. Regression equations were then developed relating the series of annual and seasonal ground-water-recharge values to the corresponding series of annual and seasonal precipitation values as determined at the centroid of each drainage basin. This resulted in one equation for each of the 55 basins for each of the four seasonal periods and the annual period, or a total of 275 regression equations. Average annual and seasonal precipitation data for 1961-90 were then used to compute a set of normalized ground-water-recharge values that reflected the long-term average annual and seasonal variations (normalized) and mean recharge characteristics of each drainage basin. Ordinary-least-squares regression was applied in the process of selecting 10 out of 93 possible basin and climatic characteristics for further testing in the development of the equations for computing the generalized estimate of annual and seasonal ground-water recharge based on the set of normalized recharge values. Generalized-least-squares regression was used for the final parameter estimation and error evaluation. The following basin and climatic characteristics were found to be statistically significant predictors for at least one of the dependent variables: average annual, summer, and spring precipitation as determined at U.S. Geological Survey stream-gaging stations; average annual basin-centroid precipitation; average mean annual basin temperature; average minimum winter basin temperature; percent coniferous forest in a basin; percent mixed coniferous and deciduous forest in a basin; average fall basin-centroid precipitation; and average annual snowcover. These 10 basin and climatic characteristics were selected because they were statistically significant based on several statistical parameters that evaluated which combination of characteristics contributed the most to the predictive accuracy of the regression-equation models. A geographic information system is required to measure the values of the predictor variables for the equations developed in the study. The average annual normalized ground-water recharge was 21.0 in. This value was determined by generalized-least-squares (GLS) regression analysis for all of the basins used in the normalized ground-water recharge analysis for precipitation from 1961-90. The average winter (January 1-March 15) ground-water recharge was 4.3 in., average spring (March 16-May 31) ground-water recharge was 9.0 in., average summer (June 1-October 31) ground-water recharge was 4.0 in., and average fall (November 1-December 31) ground-water recharge was 3.6 in. Normalized ground-water recharge ranged annually from 12.3 to 31.8 in., for winter from 2.30 to 7.82 in., for spring from 5.16 to 13.7 in., for summer from 1.45 to 10.2 in., and for fall from 2.21 to 6.06 in.

New Hampshire

Idaho and Montana non-fuel exploration database 1980-1997

This report describes a relational database containing information about mineral exploration projects in the States of Idaho and Montana for the years 1980 through 1997 and a spatial (geographic) database constructed using data from the relational database. The focus of this project was to collect information on exploration for mineral commodities with the exception of sand, gravel, coal, geothermal, oil, and gas. The associate databases supplied with this report are prototypes that can be used or modified as needed. The following sources were used to create the databases-serial mining periodicals; annual mineral publications; mining company reports; U.S. Bureau of Mines (USBM) and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) publications; an Idaho mineral property data base developed by Dave Boleneus, USGS, Spokane, Washington; Montana state publications; and discussions with representatives of Montana, principally the Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology and the Department of Environmental Quality. Fifty commodity groups were reported between the 596 exploration projects identified in this study. Precious metals (gold, silver, or platinum group elements) were the primary targets for about 67 percent of the exploration projects. Information on 17 of the projects did not include commodities. No location could be determined for 51 projects, all in Idaho. During the time period evaluated, some mineral properties were developed into large mining operations (for example Beal Mountain Mine, Stillwater Mine, Troy Mine, Montana Tunnels Mine) and six properties were reclaimed. Environmental Impact Statements were done on four properties. Some operating mines either closed or went through one or more shutdowns and re-openings. Other properties, where significant resources were delineated by recent exploration during this time frame, await the outcome of important factors for development such as defining additional reserves, higher metal prices, and the permitting process. Many of these projects examined relatively minor mineral occurrences. Approximately half of the exploration projects are located on Federal lands and about 40 percent were on lands managed by the U.S. Forest Service. More than 75 percent of the exploration occurred in areas with significant previous mineral activity.

Data Series

A Markov chain analysis of the movements of juvenile salmonids, including sockeye salmon, in the forebay of McNary Dam, Washington and Oregon, 2006-09

Passage and survival data were collected at McNary Dam between 2006 and 2009. These data have provided critical information for resource managers to implement structural and operational changes designed to improve the survival of juvenile salmonids as they migrate past the dam. Much of the valuable information collected at McNary Dam was in the form of three-dimensional (hereafter referred to as 3-D) tracks of fish movements in the forebay. These data depicted the behavior of multiple species (in three dimensions) during different diel periods, spill conditions, powerhouse operations, and testing of the surface bypass structures (temporary spillway weirs; TSWs). One of the challenges in reporting 3-D results is presenting the information in a manner that allows interested parties to summarize the behavior of many fish over many different conditions across multiple years. To accomplish this, we used a Markov chain analysis to characterize fish movement patterns in the forebay of McNary Dam. The Markov chain analysis allowed us to numerically summarize the behavior of fish in the forebay. This report is the second report published in 2012 that uses this analytical method. The first report included only fish released as part of the annual studies conducted at McNary Dam. This second report includes sockeye salmon that were released as part of studies conducted by the Chelan and Grant County Public Utility Districts at mid-Columbia River dams. The studies conducted in the mid-Columbia used the same transmitters as were used for McNary Dam studies, but transmitter pulse width was different between studies. Additionally, no passive integrated transponder tags were implanted in sockeye salmon. Differences in transmitter pulse width resulted in lower detection probabilities for sockeye salmon at McNary Dam. The absence of passive integrated transponder tags prevented us from determining if fish passed the powerhouse through the juvenile bypass system (JBS) or turbines. To facilitate comparison among species in this report, we combined JBS and turbine passage for yearling Chinook salmon, steelhead, and subyearling Chinook salmon even though we were able to differentiate between passage through the JBS or turbines for these three species. Information on passage proportions through the JBS and turbines can be found in the first report. Numerically summarizing the behavior of juvenile salmonids in the forebay of McNary Dam using the Markov chain analysis allowed us to confirm what had been previously summarized using visualization software. For example, within the powerhouse region, passage proportions among the three powerhouse areas were often greater in the southern and middle areas of the powerhouse compared to the northern area of the powerhouse for yearling and subyearling Chinook salmon. The opposite generally was observed for steelhead. The results of this analysis also allowed us to confirm and quantify the extent of milling behavior that was observed for steelhead. For fish that were first detected in the powerhouse region, less than 0.10 of the steelhead, on average, passed within each of the powerhouse areas. Instead, steelhead transitioned to adjoining areas in the spillway before passing the dam. In comparison, greater than 0.20 of the Chinook salmon passed within each of the powerhouse areas. Less milling behavior was observed for all species for fish that first approached the spillway. Compared to the powerhouse areas, a higher proportion of fish, regardless of species, passed the spillway areas and fewer transitioned to adjoining areas in the powerhouse. In addition to quantifying what had been previously speculated about the behavior of fish in the forebay of McNary Dam, the Markov chain analysis refined our understanding of how fish behavior and passage can be influenced by changes to the operations and structure of McNary Dam. For example, the addition of TSWs to the spillway area clearly influenced the passage of fish. Previous results have been reported showing that TSWs increased passage through non-turbine routes and the fish-track videos indicated, in general, how fish behaved before passing the TSWs. However, the analysis presented in this report allowed us to better understand how fish transitioned across the face of the dam before passing the TSWs and resulted in a quantitative way to measure the effect of moving the location of the TSWs from year to year. Installation of the TSWs in bays 22 and 20 clearly increased passage proportions through the southern one-third of the spillway area for all species, most significantly for steelhead. When the TSWs were moved to bays 19 and 20 in 2008, overall passage through the southern one-third of the spillway remained higher than 2006, but decreased from what was observed in 2007. Shifting the TSWs to the north decreased the proportion of fish passing through the TSWs and increased the number of fish that transitioned to adjoining areas before passing the dam. Perhaps the most interesting new information to come out of the two-step Markov chain analysis relates to how the performance of the TSWs was influenced by their proximity to the powerhouse. During 2007, the highest proportion of fish passing through TSW 22 was for fish that transitioned from the powerhouse area. In contrast, a relatively low proportion of fish passed through TSW 20 after coming from the powerhouse area. Instead, the proportion of fish that passed TSW 20 after coming from the northern part of the spillway was twice as high as the proportion of fish that passed through TSW 20 after coming from the powerhouse. During 2008, the TSW in bay 22 was moved to bay 19, leaving the TSW in bay 20 as the one closest to the powerhouse. As was the case when a TSW was located in bay 22, the proportion of fish passing through TSW 20 after coming from the powerhouse was higher than the proportion of fish passing TSW 20 after coming from the northern part of the spillway. Passage proportions for fish passing through TSW 19, the farthest north of the two TSWs during 2008, was higher for fish that came from the northern part of the spillway compared to the proportion of fish that passed through TSW 19 after coming from the powerhouse. The Markov chain analysis provided a mathematical way to characterize fish behavior in the forebay of McNary Dam and helped refine our understanding of how fish movements were influenced by operational and structural changes at the dam. The numerical information used to quantify the behavior of fish also can be used to construct simulations to examine how proposed fish passage structures might influence passage of juvenile salmonids. To demonstrate this, we used the results of the Markov chain analysis to examine how a virtual fish collector located in the center of the powerhouse might influence passage of juvenile salmonids at McNary Dam.

Oregon;Washington

Methods for estimating selected low-flow statistics and development of annual flow-duration statistics for Ohio

This report presents the results of a study to develop methods for estimating selected low-flow statistics and for determining annual flow-duration statistics for Ohio streams. Regression techniques were used to develop equations for estimating 10-year recurrence-interval (10-percent annual-nonexceedance probability) low-flow yields, in cubic feet per second per square mile, with averaging periods of 1, 7, 30, and 90-day(s), and for estimating the yield corresponding to the long-term 80-percent duration flow. These equations, which estimate low-flow yields as a function of a streamflow-variability index, are based on previously published low-flow statistics for 79 long-term continuous-record streamgages with at least 10 years of data collected through water year 1997. When applied to the calibration dataset, average absolute percent errors for the regression equations ranged from 15.8 to 42.0 percent. The regression results have been incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) StreamStats application for Ohio (http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/ohio.html) in the form of a yield grid to facilitate estimation of the corresponding streamflow statistics in cubic feet per second. Logistic-regression equations also were developed and incorporated into the USGS StreamStats application for Ohio for selected low-flow statistics to help identify occurrences of zero-valued statistics. Quantiles of daily and 7-day mean streamflows were determined for annual and annual-seasonal (September–November) periods for each complete climatic year of streamflow-gaging station record for 110 selected streamflow-gaging stations with 20 or more years of record. The quantiles determined for each climatic year were the 99-, 98-, 95-, 90-, 80-, 75-, 70-, 60-, 50-, 40-, 30-, 25-, 20-, 10-, 5-, 2-, and 1-percent exceedance streamflows. Selected exceedance percentiles of the annual-exceedance percentiles were subsequently computed and tabulated to help facilitate consideration of the annual risk of exceedance or nonexceedance of annual and annual-seasonal-period flow-duration values. The quantiles are based on streamflow data collected through climatic year 2008.

Ohio

Streamflow analysis of the Apalachicola, Pearl, Trinity, and Nueces River basins, southeastern United States

Annual mean streamflow and annual minimum and maximum daily mean streamflows were compared with associated annual index precipitation for sites on the main channels and tributaries of four major rivers that discharge directly into the Gulf of Mexico. Long- and short-term precipitation trends were identified for selected streamflow stations with at least 40 years of record. Long-term temporal trends in annual mean streamflow and annual maximum daily mean streamflow to the Gulf were not identified from the Apalachicola River Basin for the period of record studied. Annual mean and maximum streamflow to the Gulf increased with time from the Pearl River Basin and decreased from the Trinity River Basin. Annual mean streamflow showed varied trends and annual maximum streamflow decreased from the Nueces River Basin. Annual minimum streamflow to the Gulf increased in all of the basins studied. The annual index precipitation associated with the most downstream station also increased during the periods of record studied in all four of the basins. Short-term trends in streamflow generally corresponded to trends in associated annual index precipitation for each station. For some streamflow stations in the Trinity River Basin, short-term trends in annual minimum streamflow increased while annual maximum streamflow decreased. Total reported surface-water withdrawals have increased more than fourfold in the Trinity River Basin since 1940. Surface-water withdrawals from the Trinity River Basin in 1988 represent about one-fourth of the annual mean streamflow near the mouth. Total withdrawals increased more than eightfold in the Nueces River Basin since 1940. Surface-water withdrawals from the Nueces River Basin in 1988 represent about one-third of the annual mean streamflow near the mouth. Effects of selected reservoirs on streamflow in the four basins also were studied. Predicted peak streamflow into the Gulf from the Apalachicola River was about 23 percent less for the 50- year peak streamflow after reservoir construction. Although one large reservoir was built on the Pearl River and many reservoirs have been built on the Trinity River and its tributaries, peak streamflow into the Gulf of Mexico from these rivers has not been affected during the past 50 years. Estimates from a water-budget analysis showed that the annual mean streamflow to the Gulf from the Nueces River was reduced by about 24 percent from 1985 through 1990 as a result of filling and evaporation at Choke Canyon Reservoir.

Apalachicola, Nueces, Pearl, and Trinity River bas

Annual review 2016: Exploration review

This summary of international mineral exploration activities for the year 2016 draws upon information from industry sources, published literature, SNL Metals & Mining (SNL), an offering of S&P Global Market Intelligence (New York, NY), and specialists in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Minerals Information Center. Three types of information are reported and analyzed in this annual review of international exploration: 1) budgetary statistics expressed in U.S. dollars provided by SNL; 2) regional and site-specific exploration activities that took place in 2016 as compiled by the USGS and 3) regional events and legislation that affected exploration activities including economic, social and political conditions, which were derived from published sources and discussions with USGS and industry specialists. Commodity and regional compilations are presented in this summary. Because multiple sources were used to develop commodity and regional compilations, statistics may vary depending on the source and type of data that are being reported.

Mining Engineering

Quantitative paleoclimatic reconstructions from late Pleistocene plant macrofossils of the Yucca Mountain region

Plant macrofossil assemblages recovered from packrat (Neotoma) middens of late Pleistocene age from the present-day Mojave Desert of southern Nevada contain plant species that today live at higher elevations and/or farther north than the midden collection sites. Previous reconstructions of late Pleistocene climates from packrat midden assemblages in this region (Spaulding, 1985) assessed the minimum climatic differences from today by estimating the present-day climatic differences between the fossil midden sites and the nearest current occurrences of key plant species recovered from the Pleistocene middens. From this approach Spaulding (1985) concluded that although late Pleistocene temperatures were considerably below those of today, only modest increases in precipitation (relative to today) were necessary for these plant species to survive in the current Mojave Desert during the late Pleistocene. Spaulding's approach provided "state-of-the-art" results from an intensive careful examination of the best data available at the time. However, data and techniques developed since the mid-1980s suggest that there are two possible short-comings to this approach: 1) the use of lowest elevational and (frequently) most southerly occurrences of key plant species results in minimal estimates of the differences between Pleistocene and present-day climates, and 2) the instrumental climate data set available to Spaulding was limited in duration, non-standard in its method of collection, and indicated a modern climate wetter than the long-term historic mean, which resulted in relatively small apparent differences between late Pleistocene and present-day mean annual precipitation levels. In this report we use a more standard (close to the long-term mean) modern calibration period and a modern plant distribution data set that permits us to identify modern analogues for the Pleistocene vegetation. This reexamination permits a more robust reconstruction of the past climate, and results in estimates of mean annual temperature for the glacial maximum at Yucca Mountain that are 1.0° to 1.4° C warmer than those of Spaulding, and estimates of mean annual precipitation that are 60 mm or more higher than his.

Open-File Report

Early-warning signals of individual tree mortality based on annual radial growth

Tree mortality is a key driver of forest dynamics and its occurrence is projected to increase in the future due to climate change. Despite recent advances in our understanding of the physiological mechanisms leading to death, we still lack robust indicators of mortality risk that could be applied at the individual tree scale. Here, we build on a previous contribution exploring the differences in growth level between trees that died and survived a given mortality event to assess whether changes in temporal autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony in time-series of annual radial growth data can be used as early warning signals of mortality risk. Taking advantage of a unique global ring-width database of 3065 dead trees and 4389 living trees growing together at 198 sites (belonging to 36 gymnosperm and angiosperm species), we analyzed temporal changes in autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony before tree death (diachronic analysis), and also compared these metrics between trees that died and trees that survived a given mortality event (synchronic analysis). Changes in autocorrelation were a poor indicator of mortality risk. However, we found a gradual increase in inter-annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony in the last ∼20 years before mortality of gymnosperms, irrespective of the cause of mortality. These changes could be associated with drought-induced alterations in carbon economy and allocation patterns. In angiosperms, we did not find any consistent changes in any metric. Such lack of any signal might be explained by the relatively high capacity of angiosperms to recover after a stress-induced growth decline. Our analysis provides a robust method for estimating early-warning signals of tree mortality based on annual growth data. In addition to the frequently reported decrease in growth rates, an increase in inter-annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony may be powerful predictors of gymnosperm mortality risk, but not necessarily so for angiosperms.

Frontiers in Plant Science

2013 volcanic activity in Alaska: summary of events and response of the Alaska Volcano Observatory

The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) responded to eruptions, volcanic unrest or suspected unrest, and seismic events at 18 volcanic centers in Alaska during 2013. Beginning with the 2013 AVO Summary of Events, the annual description of the AVO seismograph network and activity, once a stand-alone publication, is now part of this report. Because of this change, the annual summary now contains an expanded description of seismic activity at Alaskan volcanoes. Eruptions occurred at three volcanic centers in 2013: Pavlof Volcano in May and June, Mount Veniaminof Volcano in June through December, and Cleveland Volcano throughout the year. None of these three eruptive events resulted in 24-hour staffing at AVO facilities in Anchorage or Fairbanks.

Alaska