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USGS2023

Breaking plates: Creation of the East Anatolian fault, the Anatolian plate, and a tectonic escape system

Lateral movement of lithospheric fragments along strike-slip faults in response to collision (escape tectonics) has characterized convergent settings since the onset of plate tectonics and is a mechanism for the formation of new plates. The Anatolian plate was created by the sequential connection of strike-slip faults following ≥10 m.y. of distributed deformation that ultimately localized into plate-bounding faults. Thermochronology data and seismic images of lithosphere structure near the East Anatolian fault zone (EAFZ) provide insights into the development of the new plate and escape system. Low-temperature thermochronology ages of rocks in and near the EAFZ are significantly younger than in other fault zones in the region, e.g., apatite (U-Th)/He: 11–1 Ma versus 27–13 Ma. Young apatite (U-Th)/He ages and thermal history modeling record thermal resetting along the EAFZ over the past ~5 m.y. and are interpreted to indicate thermal activity triggered by strike-slip faulting in the EAFZ as it formed as a through-going, lithosphere-scale structure. The mechanism for EAFZ formation may be discerned from S-wave velocity images from the Continental Dynamics–Central Anatolian Tectonics (CD-CAT) seismic experiment. These images indicate that thin but strong Arabian lithospheric mantle extends ~50–150 km north beneath Anatolian crust and would have been located near the present surficial location of the Bitlis-Zagros suture zone (co-located with the EAFZ in our study area) at ca. 5 Ma. Underthrusting of strong Arabian lithosphere facilitated localization of the EAFZ and thus was a fundamental control on the formation of the Anatolian plate and escape system.

East Anatolian Fault↗

USGS1994

Seismological aspects of the 1989-1990 eruptions at redoubt volcano, Alaska: the SSAM perspective

SSAM is a simple and inexpensive tool for continuous monitoring of average seismic amplitudes within selected frequency bands in near real-time on a PC-based data acquisition system. During the 1989-1990 eruption sequence at Redoubt Volcano, the potential of SSAM to aid in rapid identification of precursory Long-Period (LP) event swarms was realized, and since this time SSAM has been incorporated in routine monitoring efforts of the Alaska Volcano Observatory. In particular, an eruption that occurred on April 6 was successfully forecast primarily on the basis of recognizing the precursory LP activity on SSAM. Of twenty-two significant eruptions that occurred between December 14 and April 21, eleven had precursory swarms longer than one hour in duration that could be detected on SSAM. For individual swarms, the patterns of relative spectral amplitudes are distinct at each station and remain largely stationary through time, thus indicating that one source may have been preferentially and repeatedly activated throughout the swarm. Typically, a single spectral band dominates the signal at each seismic station: for the vigorous one-day swarm that preceded the first eruption on December 14, signals were sharply peaked in the 1.9-2.7 Hz band at the closest station, located 4 km from the vent, but were dominated by 1.3-1.9 Hz energy at three more distant stations located 7.5-22 km from the vent. The tendency for the signals from different swarms recorded at the same station to be peaked in the same frequency band suggests that all of the sources are characterized by a predominant length scale. Signals from the precursory LP swarms became weaker as the eruption sequence progressed, and swarms that occurred in March and April could only be detected at seismographs on the volcanic edifice. Onset times of precursory LP swarms prior to eruptions ranged from a few hours to about one week, but after the initial vent-clearing phase that ended December 19 these intervals tended to become progressively shorter for successive swarms. These trends in the relative onset times and intensities of successive precursory LP swarms are consistent with an overall depressurization of the magmatic system through time. In general, each of the swarms had an emergent onset, but the intensities did not always increase steadily until the eruptions. Instead, as the time of an eruption approached the intensity usually increased more rapidly before peaking and then declining prior to the eruption; for three of the swarms, two distinct peaks in intensity were apparent. The time intervals between final peaks in swarm intensity and ensuing eruptions ranged from about 2 hours to almost 2 days, but the peaks always occurred closer to the eruptions than to the swarm onsets. Both the onset of LP swarm activity and a decline in intensity prior to an eruption may represent critical points in the process of pressurization that drives the flow of fluids and gas in a sealed magmatic system. A notable exception to this pattern is the eruption of March 9 which lacked a detectable precursory LP swarm, but was followed by an unusually long period of strong LP seismicity that may have been stimulated by a depressurization of the magmatic system resulting from dome failure. On both December 14 and January 2, the spectra of early syn-eruptive signals have peaked signatures much like those of the spectra of precursory LP activity from shortly before the eruptions; these similarities may indicate that the source of precursory seismicity continued to be active during at least the early part of each eruption. In syn-eruptive signals from March and April recorded at stations on the volcanic edifice, the dominant spectral energy progressively shifts with time during the eruption to lower frequencies; at least part of the energy in these signals may have been generated by the debris flows associated with dome failures. ?? 1994.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

USGS2015

Simulation of acceleration field of the Lushan earthquake (Ms7.0, April 20, 2013, China)

The acceleration field of the Lushan earthquake (Ms7.0, April 20, 2013, China) is simulated using a new modified version of the stochastic finite-fault method (EXSIM) based on a dynamic corner frequency approach. To incorporate the effect of heterogeneous slip distribution on the variation of source spectrum, we adopt an empirical source spectral model and derive the corresponding dynamic parameters, which vary with the cumulative seismic moment of the ruptured area. The new modified method is validated by: 1) comparison of the simulation results with those obtained from the EXSIM method using near-fault ground motion data of the 1994 Northridge earthquake; 2) comparison of simulated PGA contour map inferred from synthetic time histories at 315 grid locations with the observed PGA shakemap for the 2013 Lushan earthquake; 3) comparison of simulated PGA with those predicted by ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs); and 4) comparison of simulated time histories with observed acceleration records at six strong motion stations during the mainshock of the Lushan earthquake, in which local site response is considered in the simulation. These comparisons confirm the validity of the new simulation procedure for purposes of regional strong ground motion estimation. Limitations of the procedure in modeling the phasing of different arrivals in the seismic signal and near-surface response of geologic deposits are discussed.

Lushan↗

USGS2008

Track of the Yellowstone hotspot: Young and ongoing geologic processes from the Snake River Plain to the Yellowstone Plateau and Tetons

This field trip highlights various stages in the evolution of the Snake River Plain–Yellowstone Plateau bimodal volcanic province, and associated faulting and uplift, also known as the track of the Yellowstone hotspot. The 16 Ma Yellowstone hotspot track is one of the few places on Earth where time-transgressive processes on continental crust can be observed in the volcanic and tectonic (faulting and uplift) record at the rate and direction predicted by plate motion. Recent interest in young and possible renewed volcanism at Yellowstone along with new discoveries and synthesis of previous studies, i.e., tomographic, deformation, bathymetric, and seismic surveys, provide a framework of evidence of plate motion over a mantle plume. This 3-day trip is organized to present an overview into volcanism and tectonism in this dynamically active region. Field trip stops will include the young basaltic Craters of the Moon, exposures of 12–4 Ma rhyolites and edges of their associated collapsed calderas on the Snake River Plain, and exposures of faults which show an age progression similar to the volcanic fields. An essential stop is Yellowstone National Park, where the last major caldera-forming event occurred 640,000 years ago and now is host to the world's largest concentration of hydrothermal features (>10,000 hot springs and geysers). This trip presents a quick, intensive overview into volcanism and tectonism in this dynamically active region. Field stops are directly linked to conceptual models related to hotspot passage through this volcano-tectonic province. Features that may reflect a tilted thermal mantle plume suggested in recent tomographic studies will be examined. The drive home will pass through Grand Teton National Park, where the Teton Range is currently rising in response to the passage of the North American plate over the Yellowstone hotspot.

Idaho, Wyoming↗

USGS2007

The energy radiated by the 26 December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake estimated from 10-minute P-wave windows

The rupture process of the Mw 9.1 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake lasted for approximately 500 sec, nearly twice as long as the teleseismic time windows between the P and PP arrival times generally used to compute radiated energy. In order to measure the P waves radiated by the entire earthquake, we analyze records that extend from the P-wave to the S-wave arrival times from stations at distances ?? >60??. These 8- to 10-min windows contain the PP, PPP, and ScP arrivals, along with other multiply reflected phases. To gauge the effect of including these additional phases, we form the spectral ratio of the source spectrum estimated from extended windows (between TP and TS) to the source spectrum estimated from normal windows (between TP and TPP). The extended windows are analyzed as though they contained only the P-pP-sP wave group. We analyze four smaller earthquakes that occurred in the vicinity of the Mw 9.1 mainshock, with similar depths and focal mechanisms. These smaller events range in magnitude from an Mw 6.0 aftershock of 9 January 2005 to the Mw 8.6 Nias earthquake that occurred to the south of the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake on 28 March 2005. We average the spectral ratios for these four events to obtain a frequency-dependent operator for the extended windows. We then correct the source spectrum estimated from the extended records of the 26 December 2004 mainshock to obtain a complete or corrected source spectrum for the entire rupture process (???600 sec) of the great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake. Our estimate of the total seismic energy radiated by this earthquake is 1.4 ?? 1017 J. When we compare the corrected source spectrum for the entire earthquake to the source spectrum from the first ???250 sec of the rupture process (obtained from normal teleseismic windows), we find that the mainshock radiated much more seismic energy in the first half of the rupture process than in the second half, especially over the period range from 3 sec to 40 sec.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS1972

Accelerations near faults that have moved during moderate-sized earthquakes

Peak ground accelerations recently recorded within 10-15 km of faulting during moderate-sized earthquakes (m = 4 to 6) are significantly underestimated by many, if not most, of the empirical acceleration-distance relations commonly used in seismic engineering. The recent data show a rapid decrease of peak acceleration with increasing distances (at a rate between r -1.4 and r -I.8 ) beyond 5 to 20 km and suggest a less rapid rate of attenuation closer to the causative fault.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1975

Preliminary description and interpretation of cores and radiographs from Clear Lake, Lake County, California: Core 7

Clear Lake, California is located in the California Coast Ranges about 120 km north of San Francisco and is the largest freshwater lake wholly within California. The lake basin is tectonically controlled (Anderson, 1936; Brice, 1953, Sims and Rymer, 1974) and the area seismically active (Coffman and von Hake, 1973). Interest in this lake was stimulated by hypotheses developed from a study of sediments in Van Norman Reservoir after the 1971 San Fernando earthquake (Sims, 1973). During this study three zones of deformational structures were found in the 1 m-thick sequence of sediments exposed over about 2 km 2 of the reservoir bottom. These zones were correlated with moderate earthquakes that shook the San Fernando area in 1930, 1952, and 1971. Results of this study, coupled with the experimental formation of deformational structures similar to those from Van Norman Reservoir, led to a search for similar structures in Pleistocene and Holocene lakes and lake sediments in other seismically active areas. Clear Lake, California was chosen specifically because of .:s location near the San Andreas fault and the San Francisco-Oakland urban complex, and the probability of obtaining an uninterrupted sediment record from the present into Pleistocene time. Eight 12 to 15 cm diameter continuous cores were taken from the lake sediments (fig. 1) as part of a study of earthquake induced structures in sediments and the tectonic framework of the Clear Lake basin. The eight cores range in length from 13.87 m to 133.09 m (Table 1).

California↗

USGS1976

Preliminary description and interpretation of cores and radiographs from Clear Lake, Lake County, California: Core 3

Clear Lake, California is located in the California Coast Ranges about 120 km north of San Francisco and is the largest freshwater lake wholly within California. The lake basin is tectonically controlled (Anderson, 1936; Brice, 1953; Sims and Rymer, 1974) and the area seismically active (Coffman and von Hake, 1973). Interest in this lake was stimulated by hypotheses developed from a study of sediments in Van Norman Reservoir after the 1971 San Fernando earthquake (Sims, 1973). During this study three zones of deformational structures were found in the 1 m-thick sequence of sediments exposed over about 2 km2 of the reservoir bottom. These zones were correlated with moderate earthquakes that shook the San Fernando area in 1930, 1952, and 1971. Results of this study, coupled with the experimental formation of deformational structures similar to those from Van Norman Reservoir, led to a search for similar structures in Pleistocene and Holocene lakes and lake sediments in other seismically active areas. Clear Lake, California was chosen specifically because of its location near the San Andreas fault and the San Francisco-Oakland urban complex, and the probability of obtaining an uninterrupted sediment record from the present into Pleistocene time. Eight 12 to 15 cm diameter continuous cores were taken from the lake sediments (fig. 1) as part of a study of earthquake induced structures in sediments and the tectonic framework of the Clear Lake basin. The eight cores range in length from 13.87 m to 115.21 m (Table 1).

California↗

USGS1983

Report of reprocessing of reflection seismic profile X-5 Waste Isolation Pilot Plant site, Eddy County, New Mexico

Seismic reflection profile X-5 exhibits a 7,700 ft long anomalous zone of poor quality to nonexistent reflections between shotpoints 100 and 170, compared to the high-quality, flat-lying, coherent reflections on either side. Results from drill holes in the area suggest 'layer cake' geology with no detectable abnormalities such as faults present. In an attempt to determine whether the anomalous zone of the seismic profile is an artifact or actually indicates a geologic condition, the data were extensively reprocessed using state-of-the-art processing techniques and the following conclusions were made: 1. The field-recorded data in the anomalous zone are of poor quality due to surface conditions and recording parameters used. 2. Reprocessing shows reflectors throughout the anomalous zone at all levels. However, it cannot prove that the reflectors are continuous throughout the anomalous zone. 3. Significant improvement in data quality may be achieved if the line is reshot using carefully determined recording parameters.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2016

Solving for source parameters using nested array data: A case study from the Canterbury, New Zealand earthquake sequence

The seismic spectrum can be constructed by assuming a Brune spectral model and estimating the parameters of seismic moment ( M 0 ), corner frequency ( f c ), and high-frequency site attenuation ( κ ). Using seismic data collected during the 2010–2011 Canterbury, New Zealand, earthquake sequence, we apply the non-linear least-squares Gauss–Newton method, a deterministic downhill optimization technique, to simultaneously determine the M 0 , f c , and κ for each event-station pair. We fit the Brune spectral acceleration model to Fourier-transformed S-wave records following application of path and site corrections to the data. For each event, we solve for a single M 0 and f c , while any remaining residual kappa, κ r "> κ r κr , is allowed to differ per station record to reflect varying high-frequency falloff due to path and site attenuation. We use a parametric forward modeling method, calculating initial M 0 and f c values from the local GNS New Zealand catalog M w, GNS magnitudes and measuring an initial κ r "> κ r κr using an automated high-frequency linear regression method. Final solutions for M 0 , f c , and κ r "> κ r κr are iteratively computed through minimization of the residual function, and the Brune model stress drop is then calculated from the final, best-fit f c . We perform the spectral fitting routine on nested array seismic data that include the permanent GeoNet accelerometer network as well as a dense network of nearly 200 Quake Catcher Network (QCN) MEMs accelerometers, analyzing over 180 aftershocks M w,GNS ≥ 3.5 that occurred from 9 September 2010 to 31 July 2011. QCN stations were hosted by public volunteers and served to fill spatial gaps between existing GeoNet stations. Moment magnitudes determined using the spectral fitting procedure ( M w,SF ) range from 3.5 to 5.7 and agree well with M w,GNS , with a median difference of 0.09 and 0.17 for GeoNet and QCN records, respectively, and 0.11 when data from both networks are combined. The majority of events are calculated to have stress drops between 1.7 and 13 MPa (20th and 80th percentile, correspondingly) for the combined networks. The overall median stress drop for the combined networks is 3.2 MPa, which is similar to median stress drops previously reported for the Canterbury sequence. We do not observe a correlation between stress drop and depth for this region, nor a relationship between stress drop and magnitude over the catalog considered. Lateral spatial patterns in stress drop, such as a cluster of aftershocks near the eastern extent of the Greendale fault with higher stress drops and lower stress drops for aftershocks of the 2011 M w,GNS 6.2 Christchurch mainshock, are found to be in agreement with previous reports. As stress drop is arguably a method-dependent calculation and subject to high spatial variability, our results using the parametric Gauss–Newton algorithm strengthen conclusions that the Canterbury sequence has stress drops that are more similar to those found in intraplate regions, with overall higher stress drops that are typically observed in tectonically active areas.

Christchurch↗

USGS1994

Seismic structure of the uppermost mantle beneath the Kenya rift

A major goal of the Kenya Rift International Seismic Project (KRISP) 1990 experiment was the determination of deep lithospheric structure. In the refraction/wide-angle reflection part of the KRISP effort, the experiment was designed to obtain arrivals to distances in excess of 400 km. Phases from interfaces within the mantle were recorded from many shotpoints, and by design, the best data were obtained along the axial profile. Reflected arrivals from two thin (< 10 km), high-velocity layers were observed along this profile and a refracted arrival was observed from the upper high-velocity layer. These mantle phases were observed on record sections from four axial profile shotpoints so overlapping and reversed coverage was obtained. Both high-velocity layers are deepest beneath Lake Turkana and become more shallow southward as the apex of the Kenya dome is approached. The first layer has a velocity of 8.05-8.15 km/s, is at a depth of about 45 km beneath Lake Turkana, and is observed at depths of about 40 km to the south before it disappears near the base of the crust. The deeper layer has velocities ranging from 7.7 to 7.8 km/s in the south to about 8.3 km/s in the north, has a similar dip as the upper one, and is found at depths of 60-65 km. Mantle arrivals outside the rift valley appear to correlate with this layer. The large amounts of extrusive volcanics associated with the rift suggest compositional anomalies as an explanation for the observed velocity structure. However, the effects of the large heat anomaly associated with the rift indicate that composition alone cannot explain the high-velocity layers observed. These layers require some anisotropy probably due to the preferred orientation of olivine crystals. The seismic model is consistent with hot mantle material rising beneath the Kenya dome in the southern Kenya rift and north-dipping shearing along the rift axis near the base of the lithosphere beneath the northern Kenya rift. This implies lithosphere thickening towards the north and is consistent with a thermal thinning of the lithosphere from below in the south changing to thinning of the lithosphere due to stretching in the north.

Tectonophysics↗

USGS2016

Continuity of the West Napa–Franklin fault zone inferred from guided waves generated by earthquakes following the 24 August 2014 Mw 6.0 South Napa Earthquake

We measure peak ground velocities from fault‐zone guided waves (FZGWs), generated by on‐fault earthquakes associated with the 24 August 2014 M w 6.0 South Napa earthquake. The data were recorded on three arrays deployed across north and south of the 2014 surface rupture. The observed FZGWs indicate that the West Napa fault zone (WNFZ) and the Franklin fault (FF) are continuous in the subsurface for at least 75 km. Previously published potential‐field data indicate that the WNFZ extends northward to the Maacama fault (MF), and previous geologic mapping indicates that the FF extends southward to the Calaveras fault (CF); this suggests a total length of at least 110 km for the WNFZ–FF. Because the WNFZ–FF appears contiguous with the MF and CF, these faults apparently form a continuous Calaveras–Franklin–WNFZ–Maacama (CFWM) fault that is second only in length (∼300 km) to the San Andreas fault in the San Francisco Bay area. The long distances over which we observe FZGWs, coupled with their high amplitudes (2–10 times the S waves) suggest that strong shaking from large earthquakes on any part of the CFWM fault may cause far‐field amplified fault‐zone shaking. We interpret guided waves and seismicity cross sections to indicate multiple upper crustal splays of the WNFZ–FF, including a northward extension of the Southhampton fault, which may cause strong shaking in the Napa Valley and the Vallejo area. Based on travel times from each earthquake to each recording array, we estimate average P ‐, S ‐, and guided‐wave velocities within the WNFZ–FF (4.8–5.7, 2.2–3.2, and 1.1–2.8 km/s, respectively), with FZGW velocities ranging from 58% to 93% of the average S ‐wave velocities.

California↗

USGS1975

Earthquakes, active faults, and geothermal areas in the Imperial Valley, California

A dense seismograph network in the Imperial Valley recorded a series of earthquake swarms along the Imperial and Brawley faults and a diffuse pattern of earthquakes along the San Jacinto fault. Two known geothermal areas are closely associated with these earthquake swarms. This seismicity pattern demonstrates that seismic slip is occurring along both the Imperial-Brawley and San Jacinto fault systems.

California↗

USGS2000

Report for explosion and earthquake data acquired in the 1999 Seismic Hazards Investigation of Puget Sound (SHIPS), Washington

This report describes the acquisition, processing, and quality of seismic reflection and refraction data obtained in the Seattle basin, central Puget Lowland, western Washington, in September 1999 during the Seismic Hazards Investigation of Puget Sound (SHIPS). As a sequel to the 1998 SHIPS air gun experiment (also known as 'Wet SHIPS'), the 1999 experiment, nicknamed 'Dry SHIPS,' acquired a 112-km-long east-west trending multichannel seismic reflection and refraction line in the Seattle basin. One thousand and eight seismographs were deployed at a nominal spacing of 100 meters, and 29 shot points were detonated at approximately 4 km intervals along the seismic line. The wide-angle seismic profile was designed to (1) determine the E-W geometry of Seattle basin, (2) measure the seismic velocities within the basin, and (3) define the basement structure underlying the Seattle basin. In this report, we describe the acquisition of these data, discuss the processing and merging of the data into common shot gathers, and illustrate the acquired profiles. We also describe the format and content of the archival tapes containing the SEGY-formatted, common-shot gathers. Data quality is variable, but useful data were acquired from all 29 shot points fired along the Dry SHIPS seismic line. The data show pronounced travel time delays associated with the low velocity sedimentary rocks filling the Seattle basin. Thirty-five REFTEK stations, deployed at 4 km intervals along the Dry SHIPS line, recorded 26 regional earthquakes and blasts and 17 teleseismic events, including the main shock and several aftershocks of the Mw=7.6 Chi-Chi (Taiwan) earthquake of 9/20/1999. The teleseismic recordings of the Chi-Chi (Taiwan) mainshock provide useful signals down to 10 second periods. They document a significant (factor between 5 and 10) focusing of compressional- and shear-wave energy by the Seattle basin at periods between 1 and 2 seconds relative to 'bedrock' sites east and west of the basin. Signal durations in the Seattle basin were also substantially increased relative to 'bedrock' sites in the Olympic peninsula and Cascade foothills.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1999

Site response for Seattle and source parameters of earthquakes in the Puget Sound Region

We analyzed seismograms from 21 earthquakes ( M L 2.0-4.9) recorded by digital seismographs we deployed in urban Seattle to determine site response and earthquake stress drops. The seismometers were situated on a wide variety of geologic units, including artificial fill (e.g., Kingdome, Harbor Island), Pleistocene age soils (glacial till and outwash deposits of Seattle's hills), modified land (downtown Seattle, Space Needle), and Tertiary sedimentary rock. Two mainshock-aftershock sequences were recorded: the June 1997 Bremerton sequence (mainshock M L 4.9) and the February 1997 South Seattle sequence (mainshock M L 3.5), along with other events in the Puget Sound region. We developed a new inversion procedure to estimate site response, source corner frequencies, and seismic moments from the S -wave spectra. This inversion uses corner frequencies determined from spectral ratios of mainshock-aftershock pairs as constraints. The site responses found from the inversion are not relative to the rock site but are relative to an idealized site with a flat frequency response. The response of the rock site is also found from the inversion. The inversion results show high response for the sites on artificial fill, more moderate amplification for most sites on stiff Pleistocene soils or modified land, and low response for the rock site. Some sites display resonances, such as a strong 2-Hz resonance at our site near the Kingdome, which is caused by the surficial layers of fill and younger alluvium. The sites in West Seattle exhibit high amplification, even though they are on relatively stiff soils of glacial outwash. This may be partly caused by basin surface waves produced by conversion of incident S waves. This high response in West Seattle is consistent with damage reports from the 1949 ( m b 7.1) and 1965 ( m b 6.5) earthquakes. Stress-drop estimates for the events we recorded were generally low, between 0.4 and 25 bars, although some of the events may have had higher stress drops that could not be resolved because of the limited passband. We calculated a stress drop of 24 bars for the Bremerton mainshock and 10 bars for the South Seattle mainshock.

Washington↗

USGS2015

Risk management of El Chichón and Tacaná Volcanoes: Lessons learned from past volcanic crises: Chapter 8

Before 1985, Mexico lacked civil-protection agencies with a mission to prevent and respond to natural and human-caused disasters; thus, the government was unprepared for the sudden eruption of El Chichón Volcano in March–April 1982, which produced the deadliest volcanic disaster in the country’s recorded history (~2,000 fatalities). With the sobering lessons of El Chichón still fresh, scientists and governmental officials had a higher awareness of possible disastrous outcome when Tacaná Volcano began to exhibit unrest in late 1985. Seismic and geochemical studies were quickly initiated to monitor activity. At the same time, scientists worked actively with officials of the Federal and local agencies to develop the “Plan Operativo” (Operational Plan)—expressly designed to effectively communicate hazards information and reduce confusion and panic among the affected population. Even though the volcano-monitoring data obtained during the Tacaná crisis were limited, when used in conjunction with protocols of the Operational Plan, they proved useful in mitigating risk and easing public anxiety. While comprehensive monitoring is not yet available, both El Chichón and Tacaná volcanoes are currently monitored—seismically and geochemically—within the scientific and economic resources available. Numerous post-eruption studies have generated new insights into the volcanic systems that have been factored into subsequent volcano monitoring and hazards assessments. The State of Chiapas is now much better positioned to deal with any future unrest or eruptive activity at El Chichón or Tacaná, both of which at the moment are quiescent as of 2014. Perhaps more importantly, the protocols first tested in 1986 at Tacaná have served as the basis for the development of risk-management practices for hazards from other active and potentially active volcanoes in Mexico. These practices have been most notably employed since 1994 at Volcán Popocatépetl since a major eruption under unfavorable prevailing winds may constitute a substantial threat to densely populated metropolitan Mexico City. While the 1982 El Chichón disaster was a national tragedy, it greatly accelerated volcanic emergency preparedness and multidisciplinary scientific studies of eruptive processes and products, not only at El Chichón but also at other explosive volcanoes in Mexico and elsewhere in the world.

Chiapas↗

USGS2024

Stress-driven recurrence and precursory moment-rate surge in caldera collapse earthquakes

Predicting the recurrence times of earthquakes and understanding the physical processes that immediately precede them are two outstanding problems in seismology. Although geodetic measurements record elastic strain accumulation, most faults have recurrence intervals longer than available measurements. Foreshocks provide the principal observations of processes before mainshocks, but variability between sequences limits generalizations of pre-failure behaviour. Here we analyse seismicity and deformation data for highly characteristic caldera collapse earthquakes from 2018 Kīlauea Volcano (Hawaii, USA), with a mean recurrence interval of 1.4 days. These events provide a unique test of stress-induced earthquake recurrence and document processes preceding mainshocks with magnitude greater than five. We show that recurrence intervals are well predicted by stress histories inferred from near-field deformation measurements and that cycle-averaged seismicity reveals a critical phase, minutes before mainshocks, where earthquakes grew larger and seismic moment rate surged dramatically. The average moment rate in the final 15 minutes (0.7% of the mean cycle duration) was 4.75 times the background, a highly significant change. We infer that as the average stress increased, ruptures were more likely to overcome geometric barriers and grow larger, leading to characteristic, whole-fault ruptures. These findings imply that stress heterogeneity influences both earthquake nucleation and growth, including on potentially hazardous tectonic faults.

Nature Geoscience↗

USGS2008

Bedrock Geologic Map of the Greater Lefkosia Area, Cyprus

The island of Cyprus has a long historical record of earthquakes that have damaged pre-Roman to modern human settlements. Because the recurrent damaging earthquakes can have a significant economic and social impact on Cyprus, this project was initiated to develop a seismic-hazard assessment for a roughly 400 square kilometer area centered on Cyprus' capital and largest city, whose European name is Nicosia and whose local name is Lefkosia. In addition, geologic and seismotectonic evaluations for the project extended beyond the perimeter of the geologic map. Additional structural, stratigraphic, and paleontological data were collected island-wide as well as data from literature research throughout the eastern Mediterranean region, in order to accurately place the geology and seismic hazards of the Lefkosia area in a regional tectonic framework.

Scientific Investigations Map↗