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At least 1,117 records · Page 62Linked to original sources
USGS2024

Physics-based forecasts of eruptive vent locations at calderas

Constraining stresses in the Earth's crust in volcanic regions is critical for understanding many mechanical processes related to eruptive activity. Dike pathways, in particular, are shaped by the orientation of principal stress axes. Therefore, accurate models of dike trajectories and future vent locations rely on accurate estimates of stresses in the subsurface. This work presents a framework for probabilistic constraint of the stress state of calderas by combining three-dimensional physics-based dike pathway models with observed past vent locations using a Monte Carlo approach. The retrieved stress state is then used to produce probability maps of future vent opening across a caldera. We test our stress inversion and vent forecast approach on synthetic scenarios, and find it successful depending on the distribution of the available vents and the complexity of the volcano's structural history. We explore the potential and limitations of the approach, show how its performance is sensitive to the assumptions in the models and available prior information, and discuss how it may be applied to real calderas.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth↗
USGS2024

Modeled coastal-ocean pathways of land-sourced contaminants in the aftermath of Hurricane Florence

Extreme precipitation during Hurricane Florence, which made landfall in North Carolina in September 2018, led to breaches of hog waste lagoons, coal ash pits, and wastewater facilities. In the weeks following the storm, freshwater discharge carried pollutants, sediment, organic matter, and debris to the coastal ocean, contributing to beach closures, algae blooms, hypoxia, and other ecosystem impacts. Here, the ocean pathways of land-sourced contaminants following Hurricane Florence are investigated using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) with a river point source with fixed water properties from a hydrologic model (WRF-Hydro) of the Cape Fear River Basin, North Carolina's largest watershed. Patterns of contaminant transport in the coastal ocean are quantified with a finite duration tracer release based on observed flooding of agricultural and industrial facilities. A suite of synthetic events also was simulated to investigate the sensitivity of the river plume transport pathways to river discharge and wind direction. The simulated Hurricane Florence discharge event led to westward (downcoast) transport of contaminants in a coastal current, along with intermittent storage and release of material in an offshore (bulge) or eastward (upcoast) region near the river mouth, modulated by alternating upwelling and downwelling winds. The river plume patterns led to a delayed onset and long duration of contaminants affecting beaches 100 km to the west, days to weeks after the storm. Maps of the onset and duration of hypothetical water quality hazards for a range of weather conditions may provide guidance to managers on the timing of swimming/shellfishing advisories and water quality sampling.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans↗
USGS2023

Bayesian hierarchical modeling for probabilistic estimation of tsunami amplitude from far-field earthquake sources

Evaluation of tsunami disaster risk for a coastal region requires reliable estimation of tsunami hazard, for example, wave amplitude close to the shore. Observed tsunami data are scarce and have poor spatial coverage, and for this reason probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) traditionally relies on numerical simulation of “synthetic” tsunami generation and propagation toward the coast. Such an approach has been extensively studied in the past and it is widely recognized as an important disaster-risk mitigation tool. PTHA can not only provide less uncertain and spatially coherent hazard estimates in comparison with classical empirical data analysis which is restricted at the tide gauge stations, but also local inundation information. In this paper, we explore a purely statistical alternative to traditional PTHA for evaluation of tsunami amplitude hazard. Here, we use tide gauge measurements of tsunami amplitude along the western United States, specifically California and Oregon, and develop a spatial Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) to assess tsunami hazard from far-field earthquake sources at various recurrence intervals. The configuration of our model incorporates latent Gaussian fields that utilize information on the distance between tide gauges as well as on the continental shelf width, that is, a covariate linked to potential dissipative effects on wave energy as the tsunami travels over shallow water. Through our BHM, we produce spatially continuous probabilistic maps of far-field tsunami hazard which can aid comprehensive tsunami disaster risk reduction and management.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2023

VogCast: A framework for modeling volcanic air pollution and its application to the 2022 eruption of Mauna Loa Volcano, Hawai'i

Volcanic activity and the associated gas emissions into the atmosphere often result in adverse air quality conditions and present a hazard to human health and the environment. Building on a decade-long effort to provide operational surface sulfur dioxide and sulfate aerosol forecasts for the State of Hawai'i, we present an air quality modeling framework called VogCast. VogCast is designed to simplify ensemble air quality prediction on a regional scale by linking together multiple state-of-the-art models of meteorology, emissions, and dispersion. The framework is open-source and introduces a new dynamic plume-rise algorithm for distributing pollutants vertically. Using radar and satellite data, we demonstrate that VogCast reasonably captured the mean injection height, the location, and the general envelope of the vog plume during Mauna Loa's 2022 eruption. The results suggest that during the 12-day eruption period model performance varied between days with trade and non-trade wind conditions. Our findings also highlight the importance of sulfur dioxide emission rate and vent parameter inputs for improving forecast accuracy. The broad goal of this work is to better our understanding of vog dispersion and improve air quality prediction for impacted communities.

Hawaii↗
USGS2023

Viscous relaxation of Oort and Edgeworth craters on Pluto: Possible indicators of an epoch of early high heat flow

Impact craters, with their well-defined initial shapes, have proven useful as heat flow probes of a number of icy bodies, provided characteristics of viscous relaxation can be identified. For Pluto's numerous craters, such identifications are hampered/complicated by infilling and erosion by mobile volatile ices, but not in every case. Large craters offer relatively deep probes of rheological structure, and on Pluto two large old craters in a major dark (volatile-ice free) region are probably the best examples for possible viscous relaxation: Oort (115-km diameter) and Edgeworth (140-km diameter). They are similar in size, location, and apparent age (morphological preservation), but may or may not be coeval. Edgeworth is particularly shallow and its floor appears bowed up above the original ground plane, a classic hallmark of viscous relaxation in which viscosity decreases sharply with depth. Oort is less relaxed, but may be somewhat younger and less affected by an early epoch of high heat flow. Finite element calculations show that this heat flow would have to have been substantial to explain Edgeworth's upbowed floor by viscous relaxation, several times steady-state radiogenic values for present-day surface temperatures. We expect Pluto's brittle ice lithosphere to be fractured and porous, however, markedly reducing thermal conductivity and increasing temperatures at depth and relaxation for a given heat flow. We find that most relaxation occurs well within 100 Myr after impact for Edgeworth and Oort, and focus attention on a temporal (and/or regional) epoch of elevated heat flow, possibly tied to the serpentinization of Pluto's rocky core.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets↗
USGS2023

Relationship between explosive and effusive volcanism in the Montes Apenninus region of the Moon

Lunar Pyroclastic Deposits (LPDs) are sites of explosive volcanism and often occur in areas of effusive volcanism on the Moon. On Earth, it has been observed that most volcanism has both effusive and explosive phases, whereas on the Moon, these two types of volcanism have typically been considered separately. We hypothesize that the relationship between explosive and effusive volcanism on the Moon is similar to what is observed on the Earth, where individual eruptions can experience multiple phases rather than one type of volcanism always preceding another or occurring separately. We present observations from the Moon Mineralogy Mapper detailing compositional relationships between volcanic features in the lunar Montes Apenninus region. We evaluated whether co-located LPDs and effusive features (e.g., rilles, mare) could have erupted from the same volcanic vent or even at the same time based on their compositional similarities and stratigraphic relationships. We found that the LPDs have varied stratigraphic relationships with co-located effusive features. We identified LPDs near sinuous rilles that may be related to the formation of the rille, where explosive and effusive volcanism occurred at the same vent (e.g., Mozart Rille), and LPDs that may be unrelated to the rille (e.g., Rimae Bode and Rima Bode LPD). Our results suggest that lunar volcanism can mirror terrestrial volcanism, with explosive and effusive eruptions demonstrating more complex dynamics and relationships than previously thought. This variability suggests that the relationship between LPDs and nearby volcanic features cannot be generalized for studies on their resource potential, eruption styles, or deposit volume.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets↗
USGS2024

Evolution of a lake margin recorded in the Sutton Island member of the Murray formation, Gale crater, Mars

This study uses data from the Mars Science Laboratory Curiosity rover to document the facies of the Sutton Island member of the Murray formation, interpret paleoenvironments, and establish key stratigraphic transitions at Gale crater. Two facies associations were identified: Facies Association 1 (FA1) and Facies Association 2 (FA2). Individual facies in FA1 include planar-laminated mudstone with minor intervals of planar sandstone, ripple cross-laminated sandstone, cross-stratified sandstone, and alternating laminated sandstone and mudstone. Meter-thick packages of planar-laminated mudstone in FA1 are interpreted to represent deposition in low-energy ponded environments along the lake margin. Straight- and curve-crested ripple cross-laminated facies are interpreted to represent current-influenced deposition. Cross-stratified sandstone facies consist of dm-thick sets that represent deposition in distal channels. Intercalated mm-scale mudstone and sandstone laminae represent waning flow conditions and possible channel abandonment. Facies in FA1 collectively represent deposition in a distal delta plain. FA2 is comprised of planar-laminated mudstone with minor sandstone and is interpreted to represent deposition in a lacustrine-basin setting by suspension settling linked to density flows. FA1 transitions upward into FA2, defining a rapid transgression substantial enough to facilitate the deposition of distal lake facies above delta plain facies. The abrupt transition from FA2 back to FA1 deltaic deposits is suggestive of forced regression. Facies in FA1 and FA2 are consistent with the prevalence of aqueous environments recorded in other Murray formation members and extend our understanding of the dynamic sedimentary processes that characterized ancient lacustrine systems at Gale crater.

Journal of Geophysical Research - Planets↗
USGS2024

Measuring erosional and depositional patterns across Comet 67P's imhotep region

Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko displays a pronounced hemispherical dichotomy in surface morphology, where the southern hemisphere exhibits more erosional features than the northern hemisphere due to receiving much greater solar radiation. Consequently, it is generally assumed that particles are ejected from the southern hemisphere through sublimation and a significant fraction eventually descends as airfall, covering the northern terrains. To investigate this south-to-north material transfer during the comet's perihelion passage, we used photoclinometry to measure material redistribution within its most extensive smooth terrain deposit around the Imhotep region. However, our findings do not align with this expected trend. Instead, we show that local-scale processes substantially impact the erosion and accumulation of material, with one area experiencing net erosion while another nearby region, just a few dozen meters away, sees sediment buildup. Our analysis underscores the complex interplay of processes shaping Comet 67P's surface and likely comets more generally.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗
USGS2023

Kinematic evolution of a large paraglacial landslide in the Barry Arm fjord of Alaska

Our warming climate is adversely affecting cryospheric landscapes via glacial retreat, permafrost degradation, and associated slope destabilization. In Prince William Sound, Alaska, the rapid retreat of Barry Glacier has destabilized the slopes flanking the glacier, resulting in numerous landslides. The largest of these landslides (∼500 Mm 3 in volume) is more than 2 km wide and has the potential to generate a tsunami that could affect nearby recreationists, marine traffic, infrastructure, natural and cultural resources, and the community of Whittier, located 60 km from the landslide. Here, we combine landslide structural and kinematic element mapping with data acquired from bi-yearly airborne lidar, multi-week satellite-based synthetic aperture radar (SAR), sub-hourly ground-based SAR, and seismic monitoring from 2020 to 2022 to characterize this landslide and examine its evolution. While some methods serve as a snapshot in time that is a culmination of events, others emphasize the ever-evolving nature of the landslide and associated hazards. Four major kinematic elements define the overall structure of the landslide, which vary in deformation type and rate, from creep (5 mm per day over several months) to episodic movement (2 m in 30 days) and landslide-wide to localized events. In some areas of the landslide, short-term deformation deviates from structures formed by cumulative movement, implying structural and kinematic evolution associated with glacier retreat. These insights are important for assessing landslide hazards and hazard evolution for large, slow-moving bedrock landslides in actively deglaciating environments.

Alaska↗
USGS2023

Tree-ring derived avalanche frequency and climate associations in a high-latitude, maritime climate

Snow avalanches are a natural hazard in mountainous areas worldwide with severe impacts that include fatalities, damage to infrastructure, disruption to commerce, and landscape disturbance. Understanding long-term avalanche frequency patterns, and associated climate and weather influences, improves our understanding of how climate change may affect avalanche activity. We used dendrochronological techniques to evaluate the historical frequency of large magnitude avalanches (LMAs) in the high-latitude climate of southeast Alaska, United States. We collected 434 cross sections throughout six avalanche paths near Juneau, Alaska. This resulted in 2706 identified avalanche growth disturbances between 1720 and 2018, which allowed us to reconstruct 82 years with LMA activity across three sub-regions. By combining this tree-ring-derived avalanche data set with a suite of climate and atmospheric variables and applying a generalized linear model to fit a binomial regression, we found that February and March precipitation and the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) were significant predictors of LMA activity in the study area. Specifically, LMA activity occurred during winters with substantial February and March precipitation and neutral or negative (cold) ONI values, while years not characterized by LMAs occur more frequently during warm winters (positive ONI values). Our examination of the climate-avalanche relationship in southeast Alaska sheds light on important climate variables and physical processes associated with LMA years. These results can be used to inform long-term infrastructure planning and avalanche mitigation operations in an urban area, such as Juneau, where critical infrastructure is subject to substantial avalanche hazard.

Alaska↗
USGS2024

Pockmarks offshore Big Sur, California provide evidence for recurrent, regional, and unconfined sediment gravity flows

Recent surface ship multibeam surveys of the Sur Pockmark Field, offshore Central California, reveal >5,000 pockmarks in an area that is slated to host a wind farm, between 500- and 1,500-m water depth. Extensive fieldwork was conducted to characterize the seafloor environment and its recent geologic history, including visual observations with remotely operated vehicles, sediment core sampling, and high-resolution, near-bottom Chirp and multibeam surveys collected with autonomous underwater vehicles to capture the morphology and stratigraphy of the pockmarks. No evidence of high methane concentrations in sediments, chemosynthetic biological communities, or methane-derived diagenetic byproducts was found. Chirp data and sediment cores showed alternating layers of slowly accumulating hemipelagic drapes interrupted by more reflective turbidite horizons that extend throughout the pockmark field and beyond. Chirp data showed multiple episodes of lateral migration over time in some of the pockmarks in association with erosion and infilling events. Laterally continuous turbidite horizons that overlay erosional surfaces indicated that pockmark migration occurred synchronously in multiple pockmarks separated by tens of kilometers. These shifts are presumed to be the result of asymmetrical erosion of the pockmark flanks caused by passing sediment gravity flows. While some pockmarks occur in chains, most are not clustered or randomly spaced but are regularly dispersed within the pockmark field. We hypothesize that intermittent, unconfined sediment gravity flows occurring over at least the last 280,000 years are the source of the regionally continuous turbidite deposits and the mechanism that maintained the regularly dispersed pockmarks.

California↗
USGS2024

Predicting characteristic length scales of barrier island segmentation in microtidal environments

Segmented barrier islands can be found in regions with small tidal ranges. In contrast to tidally dominated barriers, where inlet dynamics are thought to control island length scales, the controls on barrier island length scales in wave-dominated environments have not been quantified. These microtidal barriers typically have a curved shoreline, suggesting the influence of wave-driven alongshore sediment transport. Microtidal barriers are also typically hydrodynamically isolated from one another, as weak tidal flows limit interactions between adjoining barriers. To better understand the controls on and scales of barrier segmentation in the relative absence of tides, here we develop a theoretical framework to estimate the alongshore length scales at which a barrier will either breach or heal following a disturbance in the barrier morphology. The non-dimensional framework compares the timescales of overwash (advective) and alongshore sediment transport (diffusive) processes along barrier island chains. We then apply this framework to modern barrier islands in the microtidal Gulf of Mexico using wave hindcast data and the lengths, widths, heights, and lagoon depths measured from remotely sensed geospatial data and topobathymetric data. We find that most of these barriers are currently longer than their critical length scale, often as a result of coastal restoration efforts. Our critical length scale analysis suggests that most of the Gulf of Mexico barriers are vulnerable to segmentation despite coastal restoration efforts intended to protect fisheries and the mainland coasts.

Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi↗
USGS2024

Source, migration pathways, and atmospheric release of geologic methane associated with the complex permafrost regimes of the outer Mackenzie River Delta, Arctic, Canada

Sources and fluxes of methane to the atmosphere from permafrost are significant but poorly constrained in global climate models. We present data collected from the variable permafrost setting of the outer Mackenzie River Delta, including observations of aquatic methane seepage, core determinations of in situ methane occurrence and seep gas isotope geochemistry. The sources and locations of in situ geologic methane occurrence and aquatic and atmospheric gas release appear to be controlled by the regional geology and permafrost conditions. Where permafrost is >250 m thick, thermogenic gas deposits at depth are isolated by laterally continuous, low permeability ice-bearing sediments with few through-going thawed taliks. Thus, the observed in situ methane and aquatic gas seepage appears to be dominated by microbial methane. In contrast, where permafrost is <80 m thick, taliks are more likely to be through-going, providing permeable conduits from depth and migration pathways for both thermogenic and biogenic gas. Continuous annual fluid sampling of two lakes and a river channel documents aquatic methane flux from microbial sources, more deeply buried thermogenic sources, and mixtures of both. Using estimates of in situ methane concentration from deep core samples and observations of in situ free gas occurrences, we conclude that the reservoir of in situ geologic methane within ice bonded permafrost is substantial and that this methane is presently migrating with ongoing atmospheric release. It is our assessment that the permafrost setting, and processes described are sensitive to future climate change as the permafrost warms.

Mackenzie River Delta↗
USGS2024

Vortex trapping of suspended sand grains over ripples

Coastal hydrodynamics and morphodynamics integrate the effects of small-scale fluid-sediment interactions; yet, these small-scale processes are not well understood. To investigate sediment trapping by turbulent coherent structures or vortices, the transport of coarse sand over ripples was analyzed in a small-oscillatory flow tunnel with phase-separated Particle Image and Tracking Velocimetry. Results from one of the first direct measurements of vortex-trapped sand grains under oscillatory flows are presented. The vortices mobilized sand grains along the ripple slopes just prior to flow reversal and transported the suspended sediment grains. During several flow cycles, some sand grains were temporarily trapped in the vortex, prescribing semi-circular trajectories off-center from the vortex core in quadrants of the vortex that were closest to the ripple slope, as illustrated by Nielsen (1992, https://doi.org/10.1142/1269 ). Comparisons of the horizontal sediment grain velocity with the horizontal fluid velocity yielded a linear relationship with a slope of 0.87. The vertical grain velocities also varied linearly with the vertical fluid velocity with a slope of approximately 1 and an offset of −0.08 m s −1 . The offset is close to the still water settling velocity for coarse sand grains, as hypothesized during vortex trapping. Additionally, estimates of the off-center distance, between the centers of the semi-circular sediment paths and vortex cores, compared well with the ratio of the settling velocity to the radian frequency of the vortex yielding a linear regression slope of 0.99. Improved understanding of vortex trapping effects on sediment dynamics may decrease uncertainty in model predictions of large-scale coastal hydrodynamics and sediment transport.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface↗
USGS2023

Comparing sediment microbial communities of Arctic beaver ponds to tundra lakes and streams

In recent decades the habitat of North American beaver ( Castor canadensis ) has expanded from boreal forests into Arctic tundra ecosystems. Beaver ponds in Arctic watersheds are known to alter stream biogeochemistry, which is likely coupled with changes in the activity and composition of microbial communities inhabiting beaver pond sediments. We investigated bacterial, archaeal, and fungal communities in beaver pond sediments along tundra streams in northwestern Alaska (AK), USA and compared them to those of tundra lakes and streams in north-central Alaska that are unimpacted by beavers. β -glucosidase activity assays indicated higher cellulose degradation potential in beaver ponds than in unimpacted streams and lakes within a watershed absent of beavers. Beta diversity analyses showed that dominant lineages of bacteria and archaea in beaver ponds differed from those in tundra lakes and streams, but dominant fungal lineages did not differ between these sample types. Beaver pond sediments displayed lower relative abundances of Crenarchaeota and Euryarchaeota archaea and of bacteria from typically anaerobic taxonomic groups, suggesting differences in rates of fermentative organic matter (OM) breakdown, syntrophy, and methane generation. Beaver ponds also displayed low relative abundances of Chytridiomycota (putative non-symbiotic) fungi and high relative abundances of ectomycorrhizal (plant symbionts) Basidiomycota fungi, suggesting differences in the occurrence of plant and fungi mutualistic interactions. Beaver ponds also featured microbes with taxonomic identities typically associated with the cycling of nitrogen and sulfur compounds in higher relative abundances than tundra lakes and streams. These findings help clarify the microbiological implications of beavers expanding into high latitude regions.

Alaska↗
USGS2023

Aquatic carbon export and dynamics in mountain headwater streams of the western U.S.

Mountain headwater streams actively cycle carbon, receiving it from terrestrial landscapes and exporting it through downstream transport and gas exchange with the atmosphere. Although their importance is now widely recognized, aquatic carbon fluxes in headwater streams remain poorly characterized. In this study, aquatic carbon fluxes were measured in 15 mountain headwater streams and were used in a geostatistical analysis to determine how landscape characteristics influence aquatic carbon fluxes. In-stream sensors were used to measure fluorescent dissolved organic matter (fDOM) (a surrogate for dissolved organic carbon (DOC)) at a subset of sites to characterize dynamic responses to hydroclimatic events. Wetlands have a positive influence on aquatic carbon fluxes, whereas perennial snow/ice has the opposite effect, reflecting differences in soil organic matter content in these landscapes. Mean annual temperature (MAT) has a complex influence on DOC, with peak DOC exports in basins with MAT of 0–2°C. Precipitation has a strong positive influence on aquatic carbon fluxes, and declining snowpacks in the western United States may reduce future aquatic carbon exports. fDOM (and by implication DOC) and

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences.↗
USGS2024

Spatial, seasonal, and diel controls of nitrogen-carbon-oxygen cycling during lake-water infiltration to an aquifer

Many freshwater lakes are groundwater flow-through systems. Although lakes commonly are considered to be sinks for nitrogen inputs, relatively little is known about carbon and nitrogen export from lakes to groundwater. The current study focused on lake-bottom biogeochemical processes accompanying the transport of nitrogen, dissolved oxygen (O 2 ), and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) during lake-water recharge from a groundwater flow-through lake. Lake-water and porewater (15–100 cm below lakebed) samples were collected along transects within the lake downwelling zone. Infiltrating porewater O 2 and DOC concentrations decreased with depth while nitrate (NO 3 − ) concentrations increased, indicating nitrification of organic matter within the profiles. The depth of NO 3 − production and transport was seasonally dependent. In winter, NO 3 − and O 2 were exported beyond 100-cm depth; whereas in summer, shallow nitrification zones were underlain by deeper NO 3 − reduction zones, and diel patterns of O 2 and NO 3 − penetration depths were observed. Microbial community compositions and stable isotope profiles (δ 15 N[NO 3 − ], δ 18 O[NO 3 − ], δ 18 O[O 2 ]) were consistent with apparent C–N–O reaction stoichiometries indicating O 2 reduction and nitrification in shallower porewater, followed by varying NO 3 − reduction at depth. Maximum porewater NO 3 − concentrations (∼10–20 μM) were limited by infiltrating O 2 concentrations and C/N ratios of reacting organic matter. Lake-water level variations caused changes in shoreline position and porewater velocities, while variations in lake-water temperature, DOC, and O 2 contributed to changes in reaction rates and depth of O 2 and NO 3 − penetration into the lakebed. The quality of groundwater recharged by lake water reflected temporally and spatially varying physical and biogeochemical processes in the sediment porewater.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences↗
USGS2024

Controls on stable methane isotope signatures in northern peatlands and potential shifts in signatures under permafrost thaw scenarios

Northern peatlands are a globally significant source of methane (CH 4 ), and emissions are projected to increase due to warming and permafrost loss. Understanding the microbial mechanisms behind patterns in CH 4 production in these systems will be key to predicting annual emissions changes, with stable carbon isotopes (δ 13 C-CH 4 ) being a powerful tool for characterizing these drivers. Given that δ 13 C signatures of CH 4 are used in top-down atmospheric inversion models to partition sources, our ability to model CH 4 production pathways and associated δ 13 C-CH 4 signatures in peatland types impacted by a changing climate is critical. We sought to characterize the role of environmental conditions, including both hydrologic and vegetation patterns associated with permafrost thaw, on δ 13 C-CH 4 signatures from a diverse set of high-latitude peatlands. We measured porewater and emitted CH 4 stable isotopes, pH, and vegetation composition from five boreal-Arctic peatlands. Porewater δ 13 C-CH 4 was strongly associated with peatland type, with δ 13 C enriched values obtained from more minerotrophic fens (-61.2 ± 9.1‰) compared to permafrost-free bogs (-74.1 ± 9.4‰) and raised permafrost bogs (-81.6 ± 11.5‰). Variation in porewater δ 13 C-CH 4 was best explained by sedge cover, CH 4 concentration, and the interactive effect of peatland type and pH ( r 2 = 0.50, p < 0.001). Emitted δ 13 C-CH 4 varied greatly but was positively correlated with porewater δ 13 C-CH 4 , suggesting that porewater data can be used to predict changing emissions signatures from these systems. We calculated a weighted mean mixed atmospheric CH 4 signature for northern peatlands of -65.3 ± 7‰ and show that this signature is more sensitive to landscape drying (4 to 10 % depletion in δ 13 C) than wetting (1.5 to 5% enrichment in δ 13 C) under permafrost thaw scenarios. Our results suggest northern peatland δ 13 C-CH 4 signatures are likely to shift in the future which has important implications for source partitioning in atmospheric inversion models.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences↗