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USGS2007

Persistent earthquake clusters and gaps from slip on irregular faults

Earthquake-producing fault systems like the San Andreas fault in California show self-similar structural variation 1 ; earthquakes cluster in space, leaving aseismic gaps between clusters. Whether gaps represent overdue earthquakes or signify diminished risk is a question with which seismic-hazard forecasters wrestle 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 . Here I use spectral analysis of the spatial distribution of seismicity along the San Andreas fault (for earthquakes that are at least 2 in magnitude), which reveals that it obeys a power-law relationship, indicative of self-similarity in clusters across a range of spatial scales. To determine whether the observed clustering of earthquakes is the result of a heterogeneous stress distribution, I use a finite-element method to simulate the motion of two rigid blocks past each other along a model fault surface that shows three-dimensional complexity on the basis of mapped traces of the San Andreas fault. The results indicate that long-term slip on the model fault generates a temporally stable, spatially variable distribution of stress that shows the same power-law relationship as the earthquake distribution. At the highest rates of San Andreas fault slip (40 mm yr −1 ), stress patterns produced are stable over a minimum of 25,000 years before the model fault system evolves into a new configuration. These results suggest that although gaps are not immune to rupture propagation they are less likely to be nucleation sites for earthquakes.

California↗

USGS2017

Improving the Hawaiian seismic network for earthquake early warning

The motivation for earthquake early warning (EEW) is the fact that in many applications a few extra seconds of notice ahead of the about-imminent strong shaking can provide significant benefit. Reducing data latencies, accelerating processing times, and tuning seismic station distributions increase time available for warning. We assess the feasibility of EEW for Hawai‘i and examine how additional stations or upgrades to existing stations can improve warning times. We designed an objective method to identify the most efficient sites for improving an existing seismic network’s coverage, taking both seismic station distribution and seismic hazard into account. The choice of locations for new seismic station sites is informed by improvements in warning time, considering the distribution of seismic hazard and exposure. New sites that improve warning time from earthquakes that are most likely to generate significant ground motions are given preference. This technique may be applied to any seismically active region and target infrastructure in which seismic hazard is spatially defined. We demonstrate this method’s use on the Island of Hawai‘i, with focus on warnings to astronomical observatories on Mauna Kea and island population centers Hilo and Kailua-Kona. We identified 13 candidate sites for new sensors, telemetry upgrades, or new station installations that should provide an additional 1–4 s of warning for the most probable damaging earthquakes in southern Ka‘ū and northern offshore regions in which 2–14 s and <4 s of warning are currently estimated, respectively.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2010

Localized damage associated with topographic amplification during the 12 January 2010 M 7.0 Haiti earthquake

Local geological conditions, including both near-surface sedimentary layers 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 and topographic features 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 , are known to significantly influence ground motions caused by earthquakes. Microzonation maps use local geological conditions to characterize seismic hazard, but commonly incorporate the effect of only sedimentary layers 10 , 11 , 12 . Microzonation does not take into account local topography, because significant topographic amplification is assumed to be rare. Here we show that, although the extent of structural damage in the 2010 Haiti earthquake was primarily due to poor construction, topographic amplification contributed significantly to damage in the district of Petionville, south of central Port-au-Prince. A large number of substantial, relatively well-built structures situated along a foothill ridge in this district sustained serious damage or collapse. Using recordings of aftershocks, we calculate the ground motion response at two seismic stations along the topographic ridge and at two stations in the adjacent valley. Ground motions on the ridge are amplified relative to both sites in the valley and a hard-rock reference site, and thus cannot be explained by sediment-induced amplification. Instead, the amplitude and predominant frequencies of ground motion indicate the amplification of seismic waves by a narrow, steep ridge. We suggest that microzonation maps can potentially be significantly improved by incorporation of topographic effects.

Nature Geoscience↗

USGS2012

A teleseismic analysis of the New Brunswick earthquake of January 9, 1982

The analysis of the New Brunswick earthquake of January 9, 1982, has important implications for the evaluation of seismic hazards in eastern North America. Although moderate in size ( m b 5.7), it was well-recorded teleseismically. Source characteristics of this earthquake have been determined from analysis of data that were digitally recorded by the Global Digital Seismograph Network. From broadband displacement and velocity records of P waves, we have obtained a dynamic description of the rupture process as well as conventional static properties of the source. The depth of the hypocenter is estimated to be 9 km from depth phases. The focal mechanism determined from the broadband data corresponds to predominantly thrust faulting. From the variation in the waveforms the direction of slip is inferred to be updip on a west dipping NNE striking fault plane. The steep dip of the inferred fault plane suggests that the earthquake occurred on a preexisting fault that was at one time a normal fault. From an inversion of bodywave pulse durations, the estimated rupture length is 5.5 km. Average properties of the rupture process were examined by a moment tensor analysis of long-period P and SH body waves. The long-period moment of this earthquake was 5.3 × 10 24 dyne cm. The static and dynamic stress drops are 41 and 65 bars, respectively, similar to those of many earthquakes with similar moment in regions that are more seismically active. The joint epicenter determination algorithm was used to locate, relative to the mainshock, the three teleseismically recorded aftershocks that occurred through March 31, 1982. The relocated hypocenters of the aftershocks are significantly different from each other and from that of the mainshock; they provide additional support for the source dimensions inferred from the waveform analysis.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

USGS2020

Generalizing the inversion‐based PSHA source model for an interconnected fault system

This article represents a step toward generalizing and simplifying the procedure for constructing an inversion‐based seismic hazard source model for an interconnected fault system, including the specification of adjustable segmentation constraints. A very simple example is used to maximize understandability and to counter the notion that an inversion approach is only applicable when an abundance of data is available. Also exemplified is how to construct a range of models to adequately represent epistemic uncertainties (which should be a high priority in any hazard assessment). Opportunity is also taken to address common concerns and misunderstandings associated with the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, including the seemingly disproportionate number of large‐magnitude events, and how well hazard is resolved given the overall problem is very underdetermined. However, the main aim of this article is to provide a general protocol for constructing such models.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2021

A ground motion model for GNSS peak ground displacement

We present an updated ground‐motion model (GMM) for M w "> M w Mw 6–9 earthquakes using Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) observations of the peak ground displacement (PGD). Earthquake GMMs inform a range of Earth science and engineering applications, including source characterization, seismic hazard evaluations, loss estimates, and seismic design standards. A typical GMM is characterized by simplified metrics describing the earthquake source (magnitude), observation distance, and site terms. Most often, GMMs are derived from broadband seismometer and accelerometer observations, yet during strong shaking, these traditional seismic instruments are affected by baseline offsets, leading to inaccurate recordings of low‐frequency ground motions such as displacement. The incorporation of geodetic data sources, particularly for characterizing the unsaturated ground displacement of large‐magnitude events, has proven valuable as a complement to traditional seismic approaches and led to the development of an initial point‐source GMM based on PGD estimated from high‐rate GNSS data. Here, we improve the existing GMM to more effectively account for fault finiteness, slip heterogeneity, and observation distance. We evaluate the limitations of the currently available GNSS earthquake data set to calibrate the GMM. In particular, the observed earthquake data set is lacking in observations within 100 km of large‐magnitude events ( ⁠ M w > 8 "> M w > 8 Mw>8 ⁠ ), inhibiting evaluation of fault dimensions for earthquakes too large to be represented as point sources in the near field. To that end, we separately consider previously validated synthetic GNSS waveforms within 10–1000 km of M w "> M w Mw 7.8–9.3 Cascadia subduction zone scenario ruptures. The synthetic data highlight the importance of fault distance rather than point‐source metrics and improve our preparedness for large‐magnitude earthquakes with spatiotemporal qualities unlike those in our existing data set.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2013

Enriquillo–Plantain Garden fault zone in Jamaica: paleoseismology and seismic hazard

The countries of Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic all straddle the Enriquillo–Plantain Garden fault zone ( EPGFZ), a major left-lateral, strike-slip fault system bounding the Caribbean and North American plates. Past large earthquakes that destroyed the capital cities of Kingston, Jamaica (1692, 1907), and Port-au-Prince, Haiti (1751, 1770), as well as the 2010 Haiti earthquake that killed more than 50,000 people, have heightened awareness of seismic hazards in the northern Caribbean. We present here new geomorphic and paleoseismic information bearing on the location and relative activity of the EPGFZ, which marks the plate boundary in Jamaica. Documentation of a river bank exposure and several trenches indicate that this fault is active and has the potential to cause major destructive earthquakes in Jamaica. The results suggest that the fault has not ruptured the surface in at least 500 yr and possibly as long as 28 ka. The long period of quiescence and subdued geomorphic expression of the EPGFZ indicates that it may only accommodate part of the ∼7–9 mm=yr plate deformation rate measured geodetically and that slip may be partitioned on other undocumented faults. Large uncertainties related to the neotectonic framework of Jamaica remain and more detailed fault characterization studies are necessary to accurately assess seismic hazards.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS1998

A method for producing digital probabilistic seismic landslide hazard maps: An example from the Los Angeles, California, area

The 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake is the first earthquake for which we have all of the data sets needed to conduct a rigorous regional analysis of seismic slope instability. These data sets include (1) a comprehensive inventory of triggered landslides, (2) about 200 strong-motion records of the mainshock, (3) 1:24,000-scale geologic mapping of the region, (4) extensive data on engineering properties of geologic units, and (5) high-resolution digital elevation models of the topography. All of these data sets have been digitized and rasterized at 10-m grid spacing in the ARC/INFO GIS platform. Combining these data sets in a dynamic model based on Newmark's permanent-deformation (sliding-block) analysis yields estimates of coseismic landslide displacement in each grid cell from the Northridge earthquake. The modeled displacements are then compared with the digital inventory of landslides triggered by the Northridge earthquake to construct a probability curve relating predicted displacement to probability of failure. This probability function can be applied to predict and map the spatial variability in failure probability in any ground-shaking conditions of interest. We anticipate that this mapping procedure will be used to construct seismic landslide hazard maps that will assist in emergency preparedness planning and in making rational decisions regarding development and construction in areas susceptible to seismic slope failure.

California↗

USGS2003

A methodology for probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis (PFDHA)

We present a methodology for conducting a site-specific probabilistic analysis of fault displacement hazard. Two approaches are outlined. The first relates the occurrence of fault displacement at or near the ground surface to the occurrence of earthquakes in the same manner as is done in a standard probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for ground shaking. The methodology for this approach is taken directly from PSHA methodology with the ground-motion attenuation function replaced by a fault displacement attenuation function. In the second approach, the rate of displacement events and the distribution for fault displacement are derived directly from the characteristics of the faults or geologic features at the site of interest. The methodology for probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis (PFDHA) was developed for a normal faulting environment and the probability distributions we present may have general application in similar tectonic regions. In addition, the general methodology is applicable to any region and we indicate the type of data needed to apply the methodology elsewhere.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS2012

Tectonic relations of carbon dioxide discharges and earthquakes

CO 2 ‐rich springs occur worldwide along major zones of seismicity. They are mostly in young orogenic belts, but some are in areas of rifting continental platforms. Analyses of 13 C content indicate that much of the CO 2 is derived from the mantle and that other important sources are the metamorphism of marine carbonate‐bearing sedimentary rocks and the degradation of organic material. The presence of calc‐silicate minerals, such as pumpellyite in metagraywacke, is evidence of former conversion of carbonate‐bearing rocks into calc‐silicate minerals and release of CO 2 . The CO 2 pressure in fractured rocks of a fault zone reduces the effective normal stress and, if it is sufficiently great, allows the fault to slip. If the pressure were maintained at a sufficiently high level, the fault behavior might be characterized by frequent small earthquakes and aseismic creep such as occur along active segments of the San Andreas system. The presence of CO 2 ‐rich springs may indicate a potentially hazardous seismic region. Monitoring of CO 2 discharges could be useful in earthquake prediction.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2005

Landslide hazards: A national threat

Landslides occur and can cause damage in all 50 States. Severe storms, earthquakes, volcanic activity, coastal wave attack, and wildfires can cause widespread slope instability. Landslide danger may be high even as emergency personnel are providing rescue and recovery services. To address landslide hazards, several questions must be considered: Where and when will landslides occur? How big will the landslides be? How fast and how far will they move? What areas will the landslides affect or damage? How frequently do landslides occur in a given area? Answers to these questions are needed to make accurate landslide hazard maps and forecasts of landslide occurrence, and to provide information on how to avoid or mitigate landslide impacts. The U.S. Geological Survey develops methods to answer these questions to help protect U.S. communities from the dangers of landslides.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2008

Potential effects of a scenario earthquake on the economy of southern California: Baseline county-level migration characteristics and trends 1995-2000 and 2001-2010

The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and various partners from the public and private sectors and academia, meant to improve Southern California's resiliency to natural hazards. In support of the MHDP objectives, the ShakeOut Scenario was developed. It describes a magnitude 7.8 earthquake along the southernmost 300 kilometers (200 miles) of the San Andreas Fault, identified by geoscientists as a plausible event that will cause moderate to strong shaking over much of the eight-county (Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura) Southern California region. This report uses historical, estimated, and projected population data from several Federal and State data sources to estimate baseline characteristics and trends of the region's population migration (that is, changes in a person's place of residence over time). The analysis characterizes migration by various demographic, economic, family, and household variables for the period 1995-2000. It also uses existing estimates (beginning in 2001) of the three components of population change - births, deaths, and migration - to extrapolate near-term projections of county-level migration trends through 2010. The 2010 date was chosen to provide baseline projections corresponding to a two-year recovery period following the November 2008 date that was selected for the occurrence of the ShakeOut Scenario earthquake. The baseline characteristics and projections shall assist with evaluating the effects of inflow and outflow migration trends for alternative futures in which the simulated M7.8 earthquake either does or does not occur and the impact of the event on housing and jobs, as well as community composition and regional economy changes based on dispersion of intellectual, physical, economic, and cultural capital.

California↗

USGS1996

Source parameters controlling the generation and propagation of potential local tsunamis along the cascadia margin

The largest uncertainty in assessing hazards from local tsunamis along the Cascadia margin is estimating the possible earthquake source parameters. We investigate which source parameters exert the largest influence on tsunami generation and determine how each parameter affects the amplitude of the local tsunami. The following source parameters were analyzed: (1) type of faulting characteristic of the Cascadia subduction zone, (2) amount of slip during rupture, (3) slip orientation, (4) duration of rupture, (5) physical properties of the accretionary wedge, and (6) influence of secondary faulting. The effect of each of these source parameters on the quasi-static displacement of the ocean floor is determined by using elastic three-dimensional, finite-element models. The propagation of the resulting tsunami is modeled both near the coastline using the two-dimensional ( x-t ) Peregrine equations that includes the effects of dispersion and near the source using the three-dimensional ( x-y-t ) linear long-wave equations. The source parameters that have the largest influence on local tsunami excitation are the shallowness of rupture and the amount of slip. In addition, the orientation of slip has a large effect on the directivity of the tsunami, especially for shallow dipping faults, which consequently has a direct influence on the length of coastline inundated by the tsunami. Duration of rupture, physical properties of the accretionary wedge, and secondary faulting all affect the excitation of tsunamis but to a lesser extent than the shallowness of rupture and the amount and orientation of slip. Assessment of the severity of the local tsunami hazard should take into account that relatively large tsunamis can be generated from anomalous ‘tsunami earthquakes’ that rupture within the accretionary wedge in comparison to interplate thrust earthquakes of similar magnitude.

Natural Hazards↗

USGS2010

High tsunami frequency as a result of combined strike-slip faulting and coastal landslides

Earthquakes on strike-slip faults can produce devastating natural hazards. However, because they consist predominantly of lateral motion, these faults are rarely associated with significant uplift or tsunami generation. And although submarine slides can generate tsunami, only a few per cent of all tsunami are believed to be triggered in this way. The 12 January Mw 7.0 Haiti earthquake exhibited primarily strike-slip motion but nevertheless generated a tsunami. Here we present data from a comprehensive field survey that covered the onshore and offshore area around the epicentre to document that modest uplift together with slope failure caused tsunamigenesis. Submarine landslides caused the most severe tsunami locally. Our analysis suggests that slide-generated tsunami occur an order-of-magnitude more frequently along the Gonave microplate than global estimates predict. Uplift was generated because of the earthquake?s location, where the Caribbean and Gonave microplates collide obliquely. The earthquake also caused liquefaction at several river deltas that prograde rapidly and are prone to failure. We conclude that coastal strike-slip fault systems such as the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault produce relief conducive to rapid sedimentation, erosion and slope failure, so that even modest predominantly strike-slip earthquakes can cause potentially catastrophic slide-generated tsunamig-a risk that is underestimated at present. ?? 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Nature Geoscience↗

USGS2010

High tsunami frequency as a result of combined strike-slip faulting and coastal landslides

Earthquakes on strike-slip faults can produce devastating natural hazards. However, because they consist predominantly of lateral motion, these faults are rarely associated with significant uplift or tsunami generation. And although submarine slides can generate tsunami, only a few per cent of all tsunami are believed to be triggered in this way. The 12 January M w 7.0 Haiti earthquake exhibited primarily strike-slip motion but nevertheless generated a tsunami. Here we present data from a comprehensive field survey that covered the onshore and offshore area around the epicentre to document that modest uplift together with slope failure caused tsunamigenesis. Submarine landslides caused the most severe tsunami locally. Our analysis suggests that slide-generated tsunami occur an order-of-magnitude more frequently along the Gonave microplate than global estimates predict. Uplift was generated because of the earthquake's location, where the Caribbean and Gonave microplates collide obliquely. The earthquake also caused liquefaction at several river deltas that prograde rapidly and are prone to failure. We conclude that coastal strike-slip fault systems such as the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden fault produce relief conducive to rapid sedimentation, erosion and slope failure, so that even modest predominantly strike-slip earthquakes can cause potentially catastrophic slide-generated tsunami - a risk that is underestimated at present.

Nature Geoscience↗

USGS1993

GIS mapping of earthquake ground shaking in San Francisco, California

Severe earthquakes of the last decade in Mexico, Armenia, and the United States have reemphasized the importance of local geologic site conditions in estimating damage and consequent losses. Recent advances in geographic information system (GIS) technology have created new opportunities for maintaining and integrating extensive spatial databases for applications in seismic hazard analysis. Ground motion data and damage distributions from past earthquakes are combined with GIS databases of geologic information to prepare preliminary maps for inferring input ground motion levels for earthquake resistant design. Maps of bedrock elevation, surface topography, and surface geology are used to develop maps of soil thickness and predominant period. Ground motion attenuation relationships are used to create maps estimating ground shaking intensity for a uniform ground condition. Relationships between geologic characteristics, ground motion amplification, and earthquake intensity are used to produce amplification capability maps. Estimated ground shaking for the uniform ground condition is combined with amplification capability to develop maps predicting regional ground shaking intensity. The methods of predictive GIS mapping described here are useful for estimating characteristics of input ground motion in many urbanized seismic regions of the world.

California↗

USGS2019

Four major Holocene earthquakes on the Reelfoot fault recorded by sackungen in the New Madrid seismic zone, USA

Three sequences of well-documented, major ~M7+ earthquakes (1811-1812 CE, ~1450 CE, and ~900 CE) in the New Madrid seismic zone, USA, contribute significantly to seismic hazard in the region. However, it is unknown whether this <550 yr recurrence interval has been constant throughout the Holocene given limited geomorphic evidence of prior earthquakes. We extend the record of paleoearthquakes along the Reelfoot fault via investigation of ridge-top gravitational failure features, interpreted as sackungen. The sackungen occur in bluffs along the eastern margin of the Mississippi River floodplain and are concentrated near (<15 km) the southwest-dipping Reelfoot reverse fault. A paleoseismic trench excavated across sackungen at the Paw Paw site exposed four packages of colluvial sediment that postdate 30-11 ka Peoria loess. We interpret the colluvial packages to have been deposited following episodic failure of the sackungen as a result of strong ground motions from the following sequence of earthquakes: event 4, 1640 ± 1730 BCE; event 3, 340 ± 670 CE; event 2, 1430 ± 380 CE; and event 1, 1810 ± 50 CE (2-sigma). Event timing corresponds to previously documented earthquakes and represents the longest archive of paleoearthquakes on the Reelfoot fault. If the trenched sackungen record all major Reelfoot fault earthquakes, our observations in combination with prior investigations indicate a period of quiescence from at least 11 – 4.7 ka, followed by four major seismic events culminating in the 1811-1812 CE sequence. This clustered earthquake recurrence helps place bounds on seismic-hazard and geodynamic models in the New Madrid seismic zone.

Arkansas, Missouri↗

USGS1994

Mechanisms of crustal uplift and subsidence at the Yellowstone caldera, Wyoming

Leveling surveys in 1923, 1976, and each year from 1983 to 1993 have shown that the east-central part of the Yellowstone caldera, near the base of the Sour Creek resurgent dome, rose at an average rate of 14??1 mm/year from 1923 to 1976 and 22??1 mm/year from 1976 to 1984. In contrast, no detectable movement occurred in the same area from 1984 to 1985 (-2??5 mm/year), and from 1985 to 1993 the area subsided at an average rate of 19??1 mm/year. We conclude that uplift from 1923 to 1984 was caused by: (1) pressurization of the deep hydrothermal system by fluids released from a crystallizing body of rhyolite magma beneath the caldera, then trapped beneath a self-sealed zone near the base of the hydrothermal system; and (2) aseismic intrusions of magma into the lower part of the sub-caldera magma body. Subsidence since 1985 is attributed to: (1) depressurization and fluid loss from the deep hydrothermal system, and (2) sagging of the caldera floor in response to regional crustal extension. Future intrusions might trigger renewed eruptive activity at Yellowstone, but most intrusions at large silicic calderas seem to be accommodated without eruptions. Overpressurization of the deep hydrothermal system could conceivably result in a phreatic or phreatomagmatic eruption, but this hazard is mitigated by episodic rupturing of the self-sealed zone during shallow earthquake swarms. Historical ground movements, although rapid by most geologic standards, seem to be typical of inter-eruption periods at large, mature, silicic magma systems like Yellowstone. The greatest short-term hazards posed by continuing unrest in the Yellowstone region are: (1) moderate to large earthquakes (magnitude 5.5-7.5), with a recurrence interval of a few decdes; and (2) small hydrothermal explosions, most of which affect only a small area (<0.01 km2), with a recurrence interval of a few years. ?? 1994 Springer-Verlag.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗