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Simulation of groundwater storage changes in the eastern Pasco Basin, Washington

The Miocene Columbia River Basalt Group and younger sedimentary deposits of lacustrine, fluvial, eolian, and cataclysmic-flood origins compose the aquifer system of the Pasco Basin in eastern Washington. Irrigation return flow and canal leakage from the Columbia Basin Project have caused groundwater levels to rise substantially in some areas, contributing to landslides along the Columbia River. Water resource managers are considering extraction of additional stored groundwater to supply increasing demand and possibly mitigate problems caused by the increased water levels. To help address these concerns, the transient groundwater model of the Pasco Basin documented in this report was developed to quantify the changes in groundwater flow and storage. The MODFLOW model uses a 1-kilometer finite-difference grid and is constrained by logs and water levels from 846 wells in the study area. Eight model layers represent five sedimentary hydrogeologic units and underlying basalt formations. Head‑dependent flux boundaries represent the Columbia and Snake Rivers to the west and south, respectively, underflow to and (or) from adjacent areas to the northeast, and discharge to agricultural drains, springs, and groundwater withdrawal wells. Specified flux boundaries represent recharge from infiltrated precipitation and anthropogenic sources, including irrigation return flow and leakage from water-distribution canals. The model was calibrated with the parameter ‑ estimation code PEST++ to groundwater levels measured from 1907 through 2013 and measured discharge to springs and estimated discharge to agricultural drains. Increased recharge since pre-development resulted in a 6.8 million acre-feet increase in storage in the 508-14 administrative area of the Pasco Basin. Four groundwater-management scenarios simulate the 7-year drawdown resulting from withdrawals in different locations. Withdrawals of 2 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) from a hypothetical well field in the upper Ringold Formation along the Columbia River could generate 30–70 feet of drawdown, which may reduce landslide susceptibility along the White Bluffs. Drawdowns resulting from a 1 Mgal/d withdrawal from wells screened in either Pasco gravels, upper Ringold Formation, or both Ringold Formation and underlying basalt are simulated in the other three scenarios, and differ because of the contrasting hydraulic conductivities within the screened intervals.

Washington

Estimated groundwater recharge from a water-budget model incorporating selected climate projections, Island of Maui, Hawai‘i

Demand for freshwater on the Island of Maui is expected to increase by 45 percent between 2015 and 2035. Groundwater availability on Maui is affected by changes in climate and agricultural irrigation. To evaluate the availability of fresh groundwater under projected future climate conditions and changing agricultural irrigation practices, estimates of groundwater recharge are needed. A water-budget model with a daily computation interval was used to estimate the spatial distribution of recharge on Maui for one present-day and two future-climate scenarios. All three scenarios used 2017 land cover. The two future-climate scenarios, including one wetter than the present-day scenario and one drier than the present-day scenario, were developed using available high-resolution downscaled climate projections. The drier future scenario was developed using projections for a Representative Concentration Pathway warming scenario during 2071–99 with total radiative forcing of 8.5 Watts per square meter by the year 2100 (RCP8.5 2071–99 scenario), whereas the wetter future scenario was developed using projections for a “Special Report on Emissions Scenarios” A1B emission scenario during 2080–99 (A1B 2080–99 scenario). For the RCP8.5 2071–99 scenario, projected mean annual recharge decrease for Maui is about 172 million gallons per day, or about 14 percent less than present-day recharge, which is estimated to be 1,232 million gallons per day. Recharge for the RCP8.5 2071–99 scenario is projected to decrease in 22 of Maui’s 25 aquifer systems, which are defined by the Hawaiʻi Commission on Water Resource Management. For the A1B 2080–99 future scenario, projected mean annual recharge increase for Maui is about 144 million gallons per day, or about 12 percent more than present-day recharge. Recharge for the A1B 2080–99 scenario is projected to increase in 17 of Maui’s 25 aquifer systems. Between the two future scenarios, a total of 11 aquifer systems show similar direction in drying (Kahului, Kama‘ole, Lualaʻilua, Makawao, Olowalu, Pāʻia, Ukumehame, Waikapū) or wetting (Honopou, Kawaipapa, and Waikamoi) changes for recharge. Selectively modifying the climate inputs for the A1B 2080–99 scenario indicates that the projected changes in rainfall account for most of the projected changes in recharge for Maui’s 25 aquifer systems. However, projected changes in reference evapotranspiration and forest-canopy evaporation also can account for a substantial part of the projected changes in recharge where changes in reference evapotranspiration are relatively large and where changes in forest-canopy evaporation extend across large forested areas. Projected changes in daily rainfall frequency have a relatively small but non-negligible impact on recharge estimates.

Hawaii

Estimating flood discharges at selected annual exceedance probabilities for unregulated, rural streams in Vermont, 2023

This report provides estimates of flood discharge at selected annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) for streamgages in and adjacent to Vermont and equations for estimating flood discharges at AEPs of 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent (recurrence intervals of 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-years, respectively) for ungaged, unregulated, rural streams in Vermont with drainage areas between 0.47 and 851 square miles. The equations were developed using generalized least-squares regression and flood-frequency and drainage-basin characteristics from 156 streamgages. Flood-frequency analyses were completed using data through the 2023 water year. The drainage-basin characteristics used as explanatory variables in the regression equations are drainage area, percentage of wetland area, and basin-wide mean of the average annual precipitation. The average standard errors of prediction used to estimate flood discharges at the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent AEP with these equations are 34.9, 37.1, 38.2, 41.6, 43.8, 46.0, 49.1, and 53.2 percent, respectively. Flood discharges at selected AEPs for streamgages were computed using the Expected Moments Algorithm. Techniques used to adjust an AEP discharge computed from a streamgage record with results from the regression equations and to estimate flood discharge at a selected AEP for an ungaged site upstream or downstream from a streamgage using a drainage-area adjustment are both described. The final regression equations and the flood-discharge frequency data used in this study will be available in StreamStats. StreamStats is an internet-based application that provides automated regression-equation solutions for user-selected sites on streams.

Vermont

Occurrence of radium-224, radium-226 and radium-228 in water from the Vincentown and Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifers, the Englishtown aquifer system, and the Hornerstown and Red Bank Sands, southwestern and south-central New Jersey

This investigation is the first regionally focused study of the presence of natural radioactivity in water from the Vincentown and Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifers, Englishtown aquifer system, and the Hornerstown and Red Bank Sands. Geologic materials composing the Vincentown and Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifers and the Hornerstown and Red Bank Sands previously have been reported to contain radioactive (uranium-enriched) phosphatic strata, which is common in deposits from some moderate-depth coastal marine environments. The decay of uranium and thorium gives rise to natural radioactivity and numerous radioactive progeny, including isotopes of radium. Naturally occurring radioactive isotopes, especially those of radium, are of concern because radium is a known human carcinogen and ingestion (especially in water used for drinking) can present appreciable health risks. A regional network in southwestern and south-central New Jersey of 39 wells completed in the Vincentown and Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifers, the Englishtown aquifer system, and the Hornerstown and Red Bank Sands was sampled for determination of gross alpha-particle activity; concentrations of radium radionuclides, major ions, and selected trace elements; and physical properties. Concentrations of radium-224, radium-226, and radium-228 were determined for water from 28 of the 39 wells, whereas gross alpha-particle activity was determined for all 39. The alpha spectroscopic technique was used to determine concentrations of radium-224, which ranged from less than 0.5 to 2.7 pCi/L with a median concentration of less than 0.5pCi/L, and of radium-226, which ranged from less than 0.5 to 3.2 pCi/L with a median concentration of less than 0.5 pCi/L. The beta-counting technique was used to determine concentrations of radium-228. The concentration of radium-228 ranged from less than 0.5 to 4.3 pCi/L with a median of less than 0.5. Radium-228, when quantifiable, had the greatest concentration of the three radium radioisotopes in 9 of the 12 samples (75 percent). The concentration of radium-224 exceeded that of radium-226 in five of the six (83 percent) samples when both were quantifiable. The radium concentration distribution differed by aquifer, with the highest Ra-228 concentrations present in the Englishtown aquifer system and the highest Ra-226 concentrations present in the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer. Radium-224 generally contributed a considerable amount of gross alpha-particle activity to water produced from all the sampled aquifers, but was not the dominant radionuclide as it is in water from the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, nor were concentrations greater than 1 pCi/L of radium-224 widespread. Gross alpha-particle activity was found to exceed the U.S Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) of 15 pCi/L in one sample (16 pCi/L) from the Vincentown aquifer. A greater part of the gross alpha-particle activity in water from the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer resulted from the decay of Ra-226 than did the gross alpha-particle activity in the other sampled aquifers; this relation is consistent with the concentration distribution of the Ra-226 itself. Concentrations of radium-224 correlate strongly with those of both radium-226 and radium-228 (Spearman correlation coefficients, r, +0.86 and +0.66, respectively). The greatest concentrations of radium-224, radium-226, and radium-228 were present in the most acidic ground water. All radium-224, radium-226, and radium-228 concentrations greater than 2.5 pCi/L were present in ground-water samples with a pH less than 5.0. The presence of combined radium-226 and radium-228 concentrations greater than 5 pCi/L in samples from the Vincentown and Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifers and the Englishtown aquifer system was not nearly as common as in samples from the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, likely because of the slightly higher pH of water from these aquifers relative to that of Kirkwood-Cohansey aqu

New Jersey

Synthesis of monthly and annual streamflow records (water years 1950-2003) for Big Sandy, Clear, Peoples, and Beaver Creeks in the Milk River basin, Montana

To address concerns expressed by the State of Montana about the apportionment of water in the St. Mary and Milk River basins between Canada and the United States, the International Joint Commission requested information from the United States government about water that originates in the United States but does not cross the border into Canada. In response to this request, the U.S. Geological Survey synthesized monthly and annual streamflow records for Big Sandy, Clear, Peoples, and Beaver Creeks, all of which are in the Milk River basin in Montana, for water years 1950-2003. This report presents the synthesized values of monthly and annual streamflow for Big Sandy, Clear, Peoples, and Beaver Creeks in Montana. Synthesized values were derived from recorded and estimated streamflows. Statistics, including long-term medians and averages and flows for various exceedance probabilities, were computed from the synthesized data. Beaver Creek had the largest median annual discharge (19,490 acre-feet), and Clear Creek had the smallest median annual discharge (6,680 acre-feet). Big Sandy Creek, the stream with the largest drainage area, had the second smallest median annual discharge (9,640 acre-feet), whereas Peoples Creek, the stream with the second smallest drainage area, had the second largest median annual discharge (11,700 acre-feet). The combined median annual discharge for the four streams was 45,400 acre-feet. The largest combined median monthly discharge for the four creeks was 6,930 acre-feet in March, and the smallest combined median monthly discharge was 48 acre-feet in January. The combined median monthly values were substantially smaller than the average monthly values. Overall, synthesized flow records for the four creeks are considered to be reasonable given the prevailing climatic conditions in the region during the 1950-2003 base period. Individual estimates of monthly streamflow may have large errors, however. Linear regression was used to relate logarithms of combined annual streamflow to water years 1950-2003. The results of the regression analysis indicated a significant downward trend (regression line slope was -0.00977) for combined annual streamflow. A regression analysis using data from 1956-2003 indicated a slight, but not significant, downward trend for combined annual streamflow.

Scientific Investigations Report

Geologic resource evaluation of Pu‘ukoholā Heiau National Historic Site, Hawai‘i, part II: Benthic habitat mapping

In cooperation with the U.S. National Park Service (NPS), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has mapped the underwater environment in and adjacent to three parks along the Kona coast on the island of Hawai‘i. This report is the second of two produced for the NPS on the geologic resource evaluation of Pu‘ukoholā Heiau National Historic Site (PUHE) and presents benthic habitat mapping of the waters of Kawaihae Bay offshore of PUHE. See Part I (Richmond and others, 2006) for an overview of the regional geology, local volcanics, and a detailed description of coastal landforms in the park. PUHE boundaries do not officially extend into the marine environment; however, impacts downslope of any activity in the park are of concern to management. The area of Kawaihae Bay mapped for this report extends from the north edge of the U.S. Coast Guard Reservation north of Kawaihae Harbor approximately 3.5 km south to the north edge of the Mauna Kea Golf Course and Beach Resort at Waikoloa and from the shoreline to depths of approximately 40 m (130 ft), where the fore reef drops off to the sandy shelf. The waters of smaller Pelekane Bay directly offshore of the park, while not formally under NPS jurisdiction, are managed by the park under an agreement with the State. This embayment is described in greater detail because of its special resource status. PUHE lies within the Kawaihae watershed, which contributes ~75 percent of the drainage in the northern portion of the study area; the Waikoloa/Waiulaula watershed contributes ~25 percent in the southern portion of the study area. Drainages from these watersheds into the study area include Makahuna, Makeāhua, Pohaukole, Kukui, and Waikoloa/Waiulaula Gulches. The Waikoloa/Waiulaula Gulch is the only perennial stream with a year-round water flow. Only during periods of extreme rainfall will water flow in the Makeāhua and Pohaukole gulches, merge together in the park, and empty directly into Pelekane Bay. In the late 1950s the reef off of PUHE was dredged to construct Kawaihae Harbor. Coral rubble was used in the construction of causeways and a revetment wall surrounding the commercial harbor. In the late 1960s the reef near Pelekane was blasted to create a small-boat harbor adjacent to the larger commercial harbor. Damage from these activities, in addition to a change in circulation patterns, has led to problems of high turbidity in Pelekane Bay.

Hawai'i

Questa baseline and pre-mining ground-water quality investigation. 17. Geomorphology of the Red River Valley, Taos County, New Mexico, and influence on ground-water flow in the shallow alluvial aquifer

In April 2001, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the New Mexico Environment Department (NMED) began a cooperative study to infer the pre-mining ground-water chemistry at the Molycorp molybdenum mine site in the Red River Valley of north-central New Mexico. This report is one in a series of reports that can be used to determine pre-mining ground-water conditions at the mine site. Molycorp’s Questa molybdenum mine in the Red River Valley, northern New Mexico, is located near the margin of the Questa caldera in a highly mineralized region. The bedrock of the Taos Range surrounding the Red River is composed of Proterozoic rocks of various types, which are intruded and overlain by Oligocene volcanic rocks associated with the Questa caldera. Locally, these rocks were altered by hydrothermal activity. The alteration zones that contain sulfide minerals are particularly important because they constitute the commercial ore bodies of the region and, where exposed to weathering, form sites of rapid erosion referred to as alteration scars. Over the past thousand years, if not over the entire Holocene, erosion rates were spatially variable. Forested hillslopes eroded at about 0.04 millimeter per year, whereas alteration scars eroded at about 2.7 millimeters per year. The erosion rate of the alteration scars is unusually rapid for naturally occurring sites that have not been disturbed by humans. Watersheds containing large alteration scars delivered more sediment to the Red River Valley than the Red River could remove. Consequently, large debris fans, as much as 80 meters thick, developed within the valley. The geomorphology of the Red River Valley has had several large influences on the hydrology of the shallow alluvial aquifer, and those influences were in effect before the onset of mining within the watershed. Several reaches where alluvial ground water emerges to become Red River streamflow were observed by a tracer dilution study conducted in 2001. The aquifer narrows where erosion-resistant bedrock, which tends to form vertical cliffs, restricts the width of the valley bottom. Although the presence of a shallow bedrock sill, overlain by shallow alluvium, is a plausible cause of ground-water emergence, this cause was not demonstrated in the study area. The water-table gradient can locally decrease in the downstream direction because of changes in the hydraulic properties of the alluvium, and this may be a contributing cause of ground-water emergence. However, at one site (near Cabin Springs), ground-water emergence could not be explained by spatial changes in geometric or hydraulic properties of the aquifer. Furthermore, the available evidence demonstrates that ground water flowing through bedrock fractures or colluvium entered the north side of the alluvial aquifer, and is the cause of ground-water emergence. At that location the alluvial aquifer was already flowing full, causing the excess water to emerge into the stream. An indirect consequence of altered rock in the tributary watersheds is the rapid erosion rate of alteration scars combined with the hydraulic properties of sediments shed from those scars. Where alteration scars are large the debris fans at the mouths of the tributary watersheds substantially encroach into the Red River Valley. At such locations debris-fan materials dominate the width and thickness of the alluvium in the valley and reduce the rate of flow of ground water within the Red River alluvial aquifer. Most sites of groundwater emergence are located immediately upstream from or along the margins of debris fans. A substantial fraction of the ground water approaching a debris fan can emerge to become streamflow. This last observation has three implications. First, very little water can flow the entire length of the study area entirely within the alluvial aquifer because the ground water repeatedly contacts debris-fan sediments over that length. Second, it follows that emerging water containing unique elemental constituents must have entered the alluvial aquifer at a relatively short distance upstream. Third, a gravel aquifer downstream from a large debris fan can transmit more ground water than flows into it through the debris fan. This observation explains how the water table can be naturally, and permanently, located well beneath the level of the bed of a perennial stream.

New Mexico

Fluctuations in groundwater levels related to regional and local withdrawals in the fractured-bedrock groundwater system in northern Wake County, North Carolina, March 2008-February 2009

A study of dewatering of the fractured-bedrock aquifer in a localized area of east-central North Carolina was conducted from March 2008 through February 2009 to gain an understanding of why some privately owned wells and monitoring wells were intermittently dry. Although the study itself was localized in nature, the resulting water-resources data and information produced from the study will help enable resource managers to make sound water-supply and water-use decisions in similar crystalline-rock aquifer setting in parts of the Piedmont and Blue Ridge Physiographic Provinces. In June 2005, homeowners in a subdivision of approximately 11 homes on lots approximately 1 to 2 acres in size in an unincorporated area of Wake County, North Carolina, reported extremely low water pressure and temporarily dry wells during a brief period. This area of the State, which is in the Piedmont Physiographic Province, is undergoing rapid growth and development. Similar well conditions were reported again in July 2007. In an effort to evaluate aquifer conditions in the area of intermittent water loss, a study was begun in March 2008 to measure and monitor water levels and groundwater use. During the study period from March 2008 through February 2009, regular dewatering of the fractured-bedrock aquifer was documented with water levels in many wells ranging between 100 and 200 feet below land surface. Prior to this period, water levels from the 1980s through the late 1990s were reported to range from 15 to 50 feet below land surface. The study area includes three community wells and more than 30 private wells within a 2,000-foot radius of the dewatered private wells. Although groundwater levels were low, recovery was observed during periods of heavy rainfall, most likely a result of decreased withdrawals owing to less demand for irrigation purposes. Similar areal patterns of low groundwater levels were delineated during nine water-level measurement periods from March 2008 through February 2009. Correlation of groundwater-level distribution patterns with orientations of geologic structures obtained from surficial mapping, borehole geophysical measurements, and interpretation of fracture traces suggests two dominant trends striking north-south and N. 65 degrees W. A variation in overall response to groundwater withdrawals was noted in the continuous groundwater-level records for the monitored observation wells and dewatered private wells. The largest overall declines during the study period were observed in an observation well in which the water-level declined as much as 247 feet from mid-July through early August 2008, during a period of heavy usage. A private well had a water-level decline of about 94 feet during the same monitoring period. The large declines recorded in the observation well and the private well indicated a substantial temporary loss of storage in the fractured-bedrock aquifer near the wells, thus reducing the amount of water available to shallow wells in the area (those wells with total depths of about 300 feet), and resulting in temporary well failures until such time as the aquifer recovered.

North Carolina

Biodegradation of chloroethene compounds in groundwater at Operable Unit 1, Naval Undersea Warfare Center, Division Keyport, Washington, 1999-2010

The U.S. Geological Survey evaluated the biodegradation of chloroethene compounds in groundwater beneath the former landfill at Operable Unit 1 (OU 1) of the U.S. Naval Undersea Warfare Center (NUWC), Division Keyport. The predominant contaminants in groundwater are the chloroethene compounds trichloroethene, cis -1,2-dichloroethene, and vinyl chloride. The remedy selected for groundwater contamination at OU 1 includes phytoremediation and natural attenuation. In 1999, the U.S. Navy planted two hybrid poplar plantations, referred to as the northern and southern plantations, over the most contaminated parts of the landfill. The U.S. Navy monitors tree health, groundwater levels, and contaminant concentrations to assess the effectiveness of phytoremediation. The U.S. Geological Survey began a cooperative effort with the U.S. Navy in 1995 to monitor the effectiveness of natural attenuation processes for removing and controlling the migration of chloroethenes and chloroethanes. Field and laboratory studies from 1996 through 2000 demonstrated that biodegradation of chloroethenes and chloroethanes in shallow groundwater at OU 1 was substantial. The U.S. Geological Survey monitored geochemical and contaminant concentrations in groundwater annually from 2001 through 2010. This report presents groundwater geochemical and contaminant data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey during June 2010 and evaluates evidence for continued biodegradation of chloroethenes in groundwater. Geochemical and contaminant concentration data through 2010 indicate that biodegradation of chloroethenes in groundwater continued beneath the landfill at OU 1. Contaminant concentrations in groundwater decreased beneath most of the 9-acre landfill between 1999 and 2010. The evidence indicating that biodegradation was a primary cause for the decreased concentrations included decreasing ratios of more highly chlorinated compounds to less chlorinated compounds over time, and widespread detections of non-chlorinated biodegradation end-products ethane and ethene. No widespread changes in groundwater reduction-oxidation (redox) conditions were observed that could result in either more or less efficient biodegradation. Even with continued biodegradation, dissolved-phase contaminant concentrations in the tens of milligrams per liter have persisted beneath part of the 0.7-acre southern plantation. The magnitude and persistence of those concentrations indicate that non-aqueous phase liquid chloroethenes likely are present beneath the southern plantation and are not substantially affected by biodegradation. During 2010, chloroethenes continued to be measured in shallow groundwater samples from the southern part of the adjacent marsh, although at the lowest concentrations ever measured. Flux calculations based on 2010 data indicate that 95 percent of dissolved-phase chloroethenes in the upper aquifer beneath the southern landfill were degraded before discharging to surface water. Overall, biodegradation of chloroethenes in groundwater throughout OU 1 continued through 2010, and it prevented most of the mass of dissolved-phase chloroethenes in the upper aquifer beneath the landfill from discharging to surface water.

Washington

Precipitation runoff modeling system (PRMS) as part of an integrated hydrologic model for the Osage Nation, northeastern Oklahoma, 1915–2014

Executive Summary The Osage Nation lacks a comprehensive tribal water plan to describe the quality and quantity of water resources in the Osage Nation, a 2,304-square-mile (mi 2 ) area of rolling pastures, tallgrass prairie, and mixed woodlands in northeastern Oklahoma. A tribal water plan can be used to help manage the sustainable development of surface and groundwater resources, thereby helping to provide a better future for the Osage Nation and their neighbors, while preserving water resources for the benefit of the surrounding environment and future generations. To help meet these goals and contribute to increased knowledge of the quantity and quality of water resources and the hydrologic processes and factors affecting those resources, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Osage Nation began studies to evaluate the surface-water and groundwater resources of the Osage Nation. An important component of these studies is the development and application of numerical models to improve quantification and understanding of the hydrologic system. These models are needed to estimate and quantify the effects of historical and potential future water resource development for the Osage Nation. This report describes the development and application of a precipitation-runoff model, the Osage Nation watershed model (ONWM). The ONWM is needed as a component of the Osage Nation integrated hydrologic model (ONIHM). At the time of this study, the ONIHM was being developed using the USGS computer software MODFLOW-One Water Hydrologic Flow Model (MODFLOW-OWHM). The intended use of the ONIHM is to simulate all surface-water and groundwater components of the hydrologic system for a 2,905-mi 2 study area centered on the Osage Nation. The ONWM was developed using the USGS Precipitation Runoff Modeling System, version 4 (PRMS-IV) computer software, also referred to as PRMS in this report, for an 8,343-mi 2 study area in northeastern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas, centered on and including the areas of the Osage Nation and the ONIHM. The ONWM is to be used as part of the ONIHM to provide a direct coupling with spatially and temporally varying daily climate conditions affecting the ONIHM study area. As an integral part of the ONIHM, the ONWM (1) simulates the inflow boundary conditions from tributary basins in the region outside and surrounding the ONIHM area; (2) provides estimates of spatially and temporally distributed precipitation, air temperature, potential evapotranspiration (PET), actual evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture, recharge, and streamflow in the ONIHM area; and (3) provides a preliminary water budget for the ONIHM area and the surrounding region, including tributary drainage basins outside of and next to the ONIHM. The specific objectives of this study were to use the ONWM to (1) provide a systematic inventory of the historical distribution of water inflows from precipitation (rain or snow) falling on the land surface and flowing through the surface-water network, (2) provide a historical context of the variability and spatial and temporal distribution of these waters, and (3) provide estimates of water inflows and potential observations to the ONIHM. The application of the ONWM as a component of the ONIHM is needed for planned simulations using the ONIHM to improve the understanding of the hydrologic system and to develop a fully comprehensive water budget, including the use and movement of water across the landscape, in the surface-water network, and in groundwater aquifers under historical and potential future conditions.

Oklahoma

Methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods for urban and small, rural streams in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, 2011

Reliable estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods are essential for the design of transportation and water-conveyance structures, flood-insurance studies, and flood-plain management. Such estimates are particularly important in densely populated urban areas. In order to increase the number of streamflow-gaging stations (streamgages) available for analysis, expand the geographical coverage that would allow for application of regional regression equations across State boundaries, and build on a previous flood-frequency investigation of rural U.S Geological Survey streamgages in the Southeast United States, a multistate approach was used to update methods for determining the magnitude and frequency of floods in urban and small, rural streams that are not substantially affected by regulation or tidal fluctuations in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. The at-site flood-frequency analysis of annual peak-flow data for urban and small, rural streams (through September 30, 2011) included 116 urban streamgages and 32 small, rural streamgages, defined in this report as basins draining less than 1 square mile. The regional regression analysis included annual peak-flow data from an additional 338 rural streamgages previously included in U.S. Geological Survey flood-frequency reports and 2 additional rural streamgages in North Carolina that were not included in the previous Southeast rural flood-frequency investigation for a total of 488 streamgages included in the urban and small, rural regression analysis. The at-site flood-frequency analyses for the urban and small, rural streamgages included the expected moments algorithm, which is a modification of the Bulletin 17B log-Pearson type III method for fitting the statistical distribution to the logarithms of the annual peak flows. Where applicable, the flood-frequency analysis also included low-outlier and historic information. Additionally, the application of a generalized Grubbs-Becks test allowed for the detection of multiple potentially influential low outliers. Streamgage basin characteristics were determined using geographical information system techniques. Initial ordinary least squares regression simulations reduced the number of basin characteristics on the basis of such factors as statistical significance, coefficient of determination, Mallow’s Cp statistic, and ease of measurement of the explanatory variable. Application of generalized least squares regression techniques produced final predictive (regression) equations for estimating the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability flows for urban and small, rural ungaged basins for three hydrologic regions (HR1, Piedmont–Ridge and Valley; HR3, Sand Hills; and HR4, Coastal Plain), which previously had been defined from exploratory regression analysis in the Southeast rural flood-frequency investigation. Because of the limited availability of urban streamgages in the Coastal Plain of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, additional urban streamgages in Florida and New Jersey were used in the regression analysis for this region. Including the urban streamgages in New Jersey allowed for the expansion of the applicability of the predictive equations in the Coastal Plain from 3.5 to 53.5 square miles. Average standard error of prediction for the predictive equations, which is a measure of the average accuracy of the regression equations when predicting flood estimates for ungaged sites, range from 25.0 percent for the 10-percent annual exceedance probability regression equation for the Piedmont–Ridge and Valley region to 73.3 percent for the 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability regression equation for the Sand Hills region.

Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina

Documentation of a groundwater flow model (SJRRPGW) for the San Joaquin River Restoration Program study area, California

To better understand the potential effects of restoration flows on existing drainage problems, anticipated as a result of the San Joaquin River Restoration Program (SJRRP), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation), developed a groundwater flow model (SJRRPGW) of the SJRRP study area that is within 5 miles of the San Joaquin River and adjacent bypass system from Friant Dam to the Merced River. The primary goal of the SJRRP is to reestablish the natural ecology of the river to a degree that restores salmon and other fish populations. Increased flows in the river, particularly during the spring salmon run, are a key component of the restoration effort. A potential consequence of these increased river flows is the exacerbation of existing irrigation drainage problems along a section of the river between Mendota and the confluence with the Merced River. Historically, this reach typically was underlain by a water table within 10 feet of the land surface, thus requiring careful irrigation management and (or) artificial drainage to maintain crop health. The SJRRPGW is designed to meet the short-term needs of the SJRRP; future versions of the model may incorporate potential enhancements, several of which are identified in this report. The SJRRPGW was constructed using the USGS groundwater flow model MODFLOW and was built on the framework of the USGS Central Valley Hydrologic Model (CVHM) within which the SJRRPGW model domain is embedded. The Farm Process (FMP2) was used to simulate the supply and demand components of irrigated agriculture. The Streamflow-Routing Package (SFR2) was used to simulate the streams and bypasses and their interaction with the aquifer system. The 1,300-square mile study area was subdivided into 0.25-mile by 0.25-mile cells. The sediment texture of the aquifer system, which was used to distribute hydraulic properties by model cell, was refined from that used in the CVHM to better represent the natural heterogeneity of aquifer-system materials within the model domain. In addition, the stream properties were updated from the CVHM to better simulate stream-aquifer interactions, and water-budget subregions were refined to better simulate agricultural water supply and demand. External boundary conditions were derived from the CVHM. The SJRRPGW was calibrated for April 1961 to September 2003 by using groundwater-level observations from 133 wells and streamflow observations from 19 streamgages. The model was calibrated using public-domain parameter estimation software (PEST) in a semi-automated manner. The simulated groundwater-level elevations and trends (including seasonal fluctuations) and surface-water flow magnitudes and trends reasonably matched observed data. The calibrated model is planned to be used to assess the potential effects of restoration flows on agricultural lands and the relative capabilities of proposed SJRRP actions to reduce these effects.

California

Distribution and sources of polychlorinated biphenyls in Woods Inlet, Lake Worth, Fort Worth, Texas, 2003

Woods Inlet is a flooded stream channel on the southern shore of Lake Worth along the western boundary of Air Force Plant 4 in Fort Worth, Texas, where elevated polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) concentrations in sediment were detected in a previous study. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Air Force, conducted a study in 2003 to map the extent of elevated PCB concentrations in Woods Inlet and to identify possible sources (or more specifically, source areas) of PCBs in the watershed of Woods Inlet. Three gravity cores (penetration to pre-reservoir sediment at three sites) and 17 box cores (surficial bottom sediment samples) were collected in Woods Inlet. Suspended sediment in stormwater runoff and streambed sediment were sampled in tributaries to Woods Inlet following storms. Assemblages of PCB congeners in surficial inlet sediments and suspended and streambed sediments were analyzed to indicate sources of PCBs in the inlet sediments on the basis of chemical signatures of PCBs. Woods Inlet receives runoff primarily from three tributaries: (1) Gruggs Park Creek, (2) the small unnamed creek that drains a Texas National Guard maintenance facility, called TNG Creek for this report, and (3) Meandering Road Creek. Twenty-seven of 209 possible PCB congeners were analyzed. The sum of the congeners was used as a measure of total PCB. The spatial distribution of total PCB concentrations in the inlet indicates that most PCBs are originating in the Meandering Road Creek watershed. Peak total PCB concentrations in the three gravity cores occurred at depths corresponding to sediment deposition dates of about 1960 for two of the cores and about 1980 for the third core. The magnitudes of peak total PCB concentrations in the gravity cores followed a spatial distribution generally similar to that of surficial bottom sediment concentrations. Total PCB concentrations in suspended and streambed sediment varied greatly between sites and indicated a likely source of PCBs associated with a sampling site that receives runoff from Air Force Plant 4. Three approaches to the analyses of congener assemblages indicate that PCBs in surficial bottom sediment of Woods Inlet primarily enter Lake Worth from Meandering Road Creek and that runoff from Air Force Plant 4 is a source of the PCBs in Meandering Road Creek. Although current (2003) transport of PCBs from Air Force Plant 4 to the creek is occurring, large decreases in PCB concentrations with decreasing age in two cores indicate that PCB loading to the inlet has decreased greatly since the 1960s. Because runoff entering Meandering Road Creek from some parts of Air Force Plant 4 was not measured or sampled in this study, it cannot be said with certainty that the Air Force Plant 4 site sampled is the only source of PCBs to Meandering Road Creek.

Texas

Water-Quality Characteristics of Cottonwood Creek, Taggart Creek, Lake Creek, and Granite Creek, Grand Teton National Park, Wyoming, 2006

To address water-resource management objectives of the National Park Service in Grand Teton National Park, the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the National Park Service has conducted water-quality sampling on streams in the Snake River headwaters area. A synoptic study of streams in the western part of the headwaters area was conducted during 2006. Sampling sites were located on Cottonwood Creek, Taggart Creek, Lake Creek, and Granite Creek. Sampling events in June, July, August, and October were selected to characterize different hydrologic conditions and different recreational-use periods. Stream samples were collected and analyzed for field measurements, major-ion chemistry, nutrients, selected trace elements, pesticides, and suspended sediment. Water types of Cottonwood Creek, Taggart Creek, Lake Creek, and Granite Creek were calcium bicarbonate. Dissolved-solids concentrations were dilute in Cottonwood Creek and Taggart Creek, which drain Precambrian-era rocks and materials derived from these rocks. Dissolved-solids concentrations ranged from 11 to 31 milligrams per liter for samples collected from Cottonwood Creek and Taggart Creek. Dissolved-solids concentrations ranged from 55 to 130 milligrams per liter for samples collected from Lake Creek and Granite Creek, which drain Precambrian-era rocks and Paleozoic-era rocks and materials derived from these rocks. Nutrient concentrations generally were small in samples collected from Cottonwood Creek, Taggart Creek, Lake Creek, and Granite Creek. Dissolved-nitrate concentrations were the largest in Taggart Creek. The Taggart Creek drainage basin has the largest percentage of barren land cover of the basins, and subsurface waters of talus slopes may contribute to dissolved-nitrate concentrations in Taggart Creek. Pesticide concentrations, trace-element concentrations, and suspended-sediment concentrations generally were less than laboratory reporting levels or were small for all samples. Water-quality characteristics of streams in the western part of the Snake River headwaters area were compared to water-quality characteristics of streams sampled in 2002 in the eastern part of the headwaters area. The median dissolved-solids concentration (55 milligrams per liter) for samples collected from western streams was smaller than the median dissolved-solids concentration (125 milligrams per liter) for samples collected from eastern streams. The small dissolved-solids concentrations in the western streams are a result of the large areas underlain by resistant Precambrian-era rocks that compose the Teton Range compared to the more erodable Mesozoic-era sedimentary rocks that compose the mountains in the eastern part of the headwaters area. The Teton Range also receives higher annual precipitation than the mountains in the east. The median total-nitrogen concentration (0.17 milligram per liter) in samples collected from streams in the western part of the Snake River headwaters area was larger than the median concentration (0.10 milligram per liter) for samples collected from streams in the eastern part of the headwaters area, in part because of larger dissolved-nitrate concentrations in samples from the western streams compared to the eastern streams. In contrast, total-phosphorus concentrations generally were larger for samples collected from eastern streams. Large total-phosphorus concentrations in the eastern streams were associated with large suspended-sediment concentrations. The source of the phosphorus and sediment probably is Mesozoic-era sedimentary rocks of marine origin that underlie parts of the eastern drainage basins.

Scientific Investigations Report

Suspended sediment delivery to Puget Sound from the lower Nisqually River, western Washington, July 2010–November 2011

On average, the Nisqually River delivers about 100,000 metric tons per year (t/yr) of suspended sediment to Puget Sound, western Washington, a small proportion of the estimated 1,200,000 metric tons (t) of sediment reported to flow in the upper Nisqually River that drains the glaciated, recurrently active Mount Rainier stratovolcano. Most of the upper Nisqually River sediment load is trapped in Alder Lake, a reservoir completed in 1945. For water year 2011 (October 1, 2010‒September 30, 2011), daily sediment and continuous turbidity data were used to determine that 106,000 t of suspended sediment were delivered to Puget Sound, and 36 percent of this load occurred in 2 days during a typical winter storm. Of the total suspended-sediment load delivered to Puget Sound in the water year 2011, 47 percent was sand (particle size >0.063 millimeters), and the remainder (53 percent) was silt and clay. A sediment-transport curve developed from suspended-sediment samples collected from July 2010 to November 2011 agreed closely with a curve derived in 1973 using similar data-collection methods, indicating that similar sediment-transport conditions exist. The median annual suspended-sediment load of 73,000 t (water years 1980–2014) is substantially less than the average load, and the correlation (Pearson’s r = 0.80, p = 8.1E-9, n =35) between annual maximum 2-day sediment loads and normalized peak discharges for the period indicates the importance of wet years and associated peak discharges of the lower Nisqually River for sediment delivery to Puget Sound. The magnitude of peak discharges in the lower Nisqually River generally is suppressed by flow regulation, and relative to other free-flowing, glacier-influenced rivers entering Puget Sound, the Nisqually River delivers proportionally less sediment because of upstream sediment trapping from dams.

Washington

Mobility statistics and automated hazard mapping for debris flows and rock avalanches

Power-law equations that are physically motivated and statistically tested and calibrated provide a basis for forecasting areas likely to be inundated by debris flows, rock avalanches, and lahars with diverse volumes. The equations A=α 1 V 2/3 and B=α 2 V 2/3 are based on the postulate that the maximum valley cross-sectional area (A) and total valley planimetric area (B) likely to be inundated by a flow depend only on its volume (V) and the topography of the flow path. Testing of these equations involves determining whether or not they fit data for documented flows satisfactorily, and calibration entails determining best-fit values of the coefficients α 1 and α 2 for debris flows, rock avalanches, and lahars. This report describes statistical testing and calibration of the equations by using field data compiled from many sources, and it describes application of the equations to delineation of debris-flow hazard zones. Statistical results show that for each type of flow (debris flows, rock avalanches, and lahars), the dependence of A and B on V is described well by power laws with exponents equal to 2/3. This value of the exponent produces fits that are effectively indistinguishable from the best fits obtained by using adjustable power-law exponents. Statistically calibrated values of the coefficients α 1 and α 2 provide scale-invariant indices of the relative mobilities of rock avalanches (α 1 = 0.2, α 2 = 20), nonvolcanic debris flows (α 1 = 0.1, α 2 = 20), and lahars (α 1 = 0.05, α 2 = 200). These values show, for example, that a lahar of specified volume can be expected to inundate a planimetric area ten times larger than that inundated by a rock avalanche or nonvolcanic debris flow of the same volume. The utility of the calibrated debris-flow inundation equations A=0.1V 2/3 and B=20V 2/3 is demonstrated by using them within the GIS program LAHARZ to delineate nested hazard zones for future debris flows in an area bordering the Umpqua River in the south-central Oregon Coast Range. This application requires use of high-resolution topographic data derived form LIDAR surveys, knowledge of local geology to specify a suitable range of prospective debris-flow volumes, and development and use of a new algorithm for identification of prospective debris-flow source areas in finely dissected terrain.

Oregon

Dam-breach analysis and flood-inundation mapping for selected dams in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, and near Atoka, Oklahoma

Dams provide beneficial functions such as flood control, recreation, and storage of water supplies, but they also entail risk; dam breaches and resultant floods can cause substantial property damage and loss of life. The State of Oklahoma requires each owner of a high-hazard dam, which the Federal Emergency Management Agency defines as dams for which failure or improper operation probably will cause loss of human life, to develop an emergency action plan specific to that dam. Components of an emergency action plan are to simulate a flood resulting from a possible dam breach and map the resulting downstream flood-inundation areas. The resulting flood-inundation maps can provide valuable information to city officials, emergency managers, and local residents for planning an emergency response if a dam breach occurs. This report presents results of a cooperative study by the U.S. Geological Survey and the City of Oklahoma City to model dam-breach scenarios at 11 dams controlled and operated by Oklahoma City, Okla., and to map the potential flood-inundation areas of such dam breaches. To assist the City of Oklahoma City with completion of the emergency action plans for the 11 dams, the U.S. Geological Survey used light detection and ranging (lidar) elevation data (2004), which produced a 2-foot contour elevation map for the flood plains around Oklahoma City. A 5-meter Digital Terrain Map was used to model the flood plain below Atoka Reservoir in southeastern Oklahoma. Digital-elevation models, field survey measurements, hydraulic data, and hydrologic data (U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations North Canadian River below Lake Overholser near Oklahoma City, Okla. [07241000], and North Canadian River at Britton Road at Oklahoma City, Okla. [07241520]), were used as inputs for the one-dimensional dynamic (unsteady-flow) models using Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System (HEC–RAS) software. The modeled flood elevations were exported to a geographic information system to produce flood-inundation maps. Water-surface profiles were developed for a 75-percent probable maximum flood dam-breach scenario and a sunny-day dam-breach scenario, as well as for maximum flood-inundation elevations and flood-wave arrival times at selected bridge crossings. Points of interest such as community-services offices, recreational areas, water-treatment plants, and wastewater-treatment plants were identified on the flood-inundation maps.

Oklahoma

Precipitation-runoff processes in the Merced River Basin, Central California, with prospects for streamflow predictability, water years 1952–2013

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the California Department of Water Resources (DWR), has constructed a new spatially detailed Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model for the Merced River Basin, California, which is a tributary of the San Joaquin River in California. Operated through an Object User Interface (OUI) with Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) and daily climate distribution preprocessing functionality, the model is calibrated primarily to simulate (and eventually, forecast) year-to-year variations of inflows to Lake McClure during the critical April–July snowmelt season. The model is intended to become part of a suite of methods used by DWR for estimating daily streamflow from the Merced River Basin, especially during the snowmelt season. This study describes the results of the application of an analysis tool that simulates responses to climate and land-use variations at a higher spatial resolution than previously available to DWR. A geographic information system was used to delineate the model domain, that is, areas draining to a single outlet at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station 11270900, Merced River below Merced Falls Dam, near Snell, CA (also known as California Data Exchange Center station MRC), and subdrainage areas, including four draining to internal gages used as calibration targets. Using this delineation, three contiguous subbasins were recognized and, along with the model domain and nested calibration targets, are the simulation units evaluated in this report. An auto-calibration tool, LUCA (Let Us CAlibrate), was used for each calibration node, from headwaters to basin outlet, and then parameters were manually adjusted to complete the calibration. The main objective was to match April–July snowmelt seasonal discharge values of simulated streamflow to observed (measured or reconstructed) discharge values. Calibration or validation periods used site-specific streamflows—mostly from October 1, 1988, through September 30, 2013—but differed according to the period-of-record available for the measurements collected at internal gages or reconstructed flows for the single outlet. The accuracy of the Merced PRMS streamflow simulations varied seasonally, as compared to observed values. Based on statistical results, the Merced PRMS model satisfactorily simulated snowmelt seasonal streamflows. April–July calibrations for all areas had small negative bias (not greater than 7 percent) and low relative error (less than 8 percent). Less satisfactory performance for other seasons was attributed to several factors: (1) high uncertainty in low or zero flows in summer and fall, (2) lack of accounting for basin withdrawals and anthropogenic water use, (3) unavailability and (or) inaccuracy of observed (measured) meteorological input data, and (4) uncertainty in reconstructed streamflow data. With some additional refinement, the Merced PRMS model may be used for forecasting seasonal and longer-term streamflow variations; evaluating forecasted and past climate and land cover changes; providing water-resource managers with a consistent and documented method for estimating streamflow at ungaged sites within the basin; and aiding environmental studies, hydraulic design, water management, and water-quality projects in the Merced River Basin.

California