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At least 1,099 records · Page 61Linked to original sources

USGS2017

Atoll groundwater movement and its response to climatic and sea-level fluctuations

Groundwater resources of low-lying atoll islands are threatened due to short-term and long-term changes in rainfall, wave climate, and sea level. A better understanding of how these forcings affect the limited groundwater resources was explored on Roi-Namur in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. As part of a 16-month study, a rarely recorded island-overwash event occurred and the island’s aquifer’s response was measured. The findings suggest that small-scale overwash events cause an increase in salinity of the freshwater lens that returns to pre-overwash conditions within one month. The overwash event is addressed in the context of climate-related local sea-level change, which suggests that overwash events and associated degradations in freshwater resources are likely to increase in severity in the future due to projected rises in sea level. Other forcings, such as severe rainfall events, were shown to have caused a sudden freshening of the aquifer, with salinity levels retuning to pre-rainfall levels within three months. Tidal forcing of the freshwater lens was observed in electrical resistivity profiles, high-resolution conductivity, groundwater-level well measurements and through submarine groundwater discharge calculations. Depth-specific geochemical pore water measurements further assessed and confirmed the distinct boundaries between fresh and saline water masses in the aquifer. The identification of the freshwater lens’ saline boundaries is essential for a quantitative evaluation of the aquifers freshwater resources and help understand how these resources may be impacted by climate change and anthropogenic activities.

Water↗

USGS2025

How can we sea change? Audience subgroups and psychological cognitions to target in action-oriented ocean change communication

Climate change’s impacts on the oceans (“ocean change”) threaten people globally. Climate action is needed at multiple scales, from individual to collective action, and yet there is limited research on what motivates this action in response to ocean change. In this study, we conducted an online survey of residents of the state of Oregon, United States ( n = 1414), to assess concerns, personal importance, and risk perceptions regarding ocean change and explore potential psychological cognitions to target in action-oriented communication efforts. Our latent class analysis identified four distinct audience subgroups ranging from individuals who are Doubtful (9 %) about ocean change to those who are Cautious (20 %), Concerned (33 %), and Alarmed (38 %). Audience subgroups varied in their climate action intentions and associated psychological cognitions (i.e., psychological distance, efficacy beliefs, social norm perceptions). The climate action intentions of the Alarmed and Concerned were positively predicted by all cognitions, those of the Cautious were significantly predicted by social norms ( β = .15, p = .002) and efficacy beliefs ( β = .34, p < .001), and those of the Doubtful were only predicted by efficacy beliefs ( β = .23, p < .001). Across all four audiences, efficacy beliefs were strongly associated with intended climate action ( β = .30, p < .001), suggesting efficacy beliefs may be a practical cognition to target in broad audience communication efforts on ocean change. These findings reinforce the importance of targeting specific psychological cognitions and, ideally, distinct audiences in ocean change communication efforts intending to motivate widespread climate action.

Marine Policy↗

USGS2019

The long-term effects of Hurricanes Wilma and Irma on soil elevation change in Everglades mangrove forests

Mangrove forests in the Florida Everglades (USA) are frequently affected by hurricanes that produce high-velocity winds, storm surge, and extreme rainfall, but also provide sediment subsidies that help mangroves adjust to sea-level rise. The long-term influence of hurricane sediment inputs on soil elevation dynamics in mangrove forests are not well understood. Here, we assessed the effects of sediment deposition during Hurricanes Wilma (2005) and Irma (2017) on soil elevation change at two mangrove forests located along the Shark and Lostmans Rivers in Everglades National Park. We used surface elevation change data from a sixteen-year period (2002-2018), measured with the surface elevation table-marker horizon (SET-MH) approach. At the Shark River mangrove forest, we used marker horizons and a combination of deep, shallow, and original SETs to quantify the contributions of four soil zones to net soil elevation change. Rates of elevation change were greatly influenced by storm sediments. Abrupt increases in elevation due to sediment inputs and subsurface expansion during Hurricane Wilma were followed by: (1) an initial post-hurricane period of elevation loss due to erosion of hurricane sediments and subsurface contraction; (2) a secondary period of elevation gain due primarily to accretion; and (3) an abrupt elevation gain due to new sediment inputs during Hurricane Irma. Our findings suggest that elevation change in hurricane-affected mangrove forests can be cyclical or include disjunct phases, which is critical information for advancing the understanding of wetland responses to accelerated sea-level rise given the expectation of increasing storm intensity due to climate change.

Florida↗

USGS2015

Hindcast of water availability in regional aquifer systems using MODFLOW Farm Process

Coupled groundwater and surface-water components of the hydrologic cycle can be simulated by the Farm Process for MODFLOW (MF-FMP) in both irrigated and non-irrigated areas and aquifer-storage and recovery systems. MF-FMP is being applied to three productive agricultural regions of different scale in the State of California, USA, to assess the availability of water and the impacts of alternative management decisions. Hindcast simulations are conducted for similar periods from the 1960s to near recent times. Historical groundwater pumpage is mostly unknown in one region (Central Valley) and is estimated by MF-FMP. In another region (Pajaro Valley), recorded pumpage is used to calibrate model-estimated pumpage. Multiple types of observations are used to estimate uncertain parameters, such as hydraulic, land-use, and farm properties. MF-FMP simulates how climate variability and water-import availability affect water demand and supply. MF-FMP can be used to predict water availability based on anticipated changes in anthropogenic or natural water demands. Keywords groundwater; surface-water; irrigation; water availability; response to climate variability/change

Conference Paper↗

USGS2014

Long-term growth-increment chronologies reveal diverse influences of climate forcing on freshwater and forest biota in the Pacific Northwest

Analyses of how organisms are likely to respond to a changing climate have focused largely on the direct effects of warming temperatures, though changes in other variables may also be important, particularly the amount and timing of precipitation. Here, we develop a network of eight growth-increment width chronologies for freshwater mussel species in the Pacific Northwest, United States and integrate them with tree-ring data to evaluate how terrestrial and aquatic indicators respond to hydroclimatic variability, including river discharge and precipitation. Annual discharge averaged across water years (October 1–September 30) was highly synchronous among river systems and imparted a coherent pattern among mussel chronologies. The leading principal component of the five longest mussel chronologies (1982–2003; PC1 mussel ) accounted for 47% of the dataset variability and negatively correlated with the leading principal component of river discharge (PC1 discharge ; r = −0.88; P < 0.0001). PC1 mussel and PC1 discharge were closely linked to regional wintertime precipitation patterns across the Pacific Northwest, the season in which the vast majority of annual precipitation arrives. Mussel growth was also indirectly related to tree radial growth, though the nature of the relationships varied across the landscape. Negative correlations occurred in forests where tree growth tends to be limited by drought while positive correlations occurred in forests where tree growth tends to be limited by deep or lingering snowpack. Overall, this diverse assemblage of chronologies illustrates the importance of winter precipitation to terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and suggests that a complexity of climate responses must be considered when estimating the biological impacts of climate variability and change.

Idaho, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2017

Quantifying drivers of wild pig movement across multiple spatial and temporal scales

Background The movement behavior of an animal is determined by extrinsic and intrinsic factors that operate at multiple spatio-temporal scales, yet much of our knowledge of animal movement comes from studies that examine only one or two scales concurrently. Understanding the drivers of animal movement across multiple scales is crucial for understanding the fundamentals of movement ecology, predicting changes in distribution, describing disease dynamics, and identifying efficient methods of wildlife conservation and management. Methods We obtained over 400,000 GPS locations of wild pigs from 13 different studies spanning six states in southern U.S.A., and quantified movement rates and home range size within a single analytical framework. We used a generalized additive mixed model framework to quantify the effects of five broad predictor categories on movement: individual-level attributes, geographic factors, landscape attributes, meteorological conditions, and temporal variables. We examined effects of predictors across three temporal scales: daily, monthly, and using all data during the study period. We considered both local environmental factors such as daily weather data and distance to various resources on the landscape, as well as factors acting at a broader spatial scale such as ecoregion and season. Results We found meteorological variables (temperature and pressure), landscape features (distance to water sources), a broad-scale geographic factor (ecoregion), and individual-level characteristics (sex-age class), drove wild pig movement across all scales, but both the magnitude and shape of covariate relationships to movement differed across temporal scales. Conclusions The analytical framework we present can be used to assess movement patterns arising from multiple data sources for a range of species while accounting for spatio-temporal correlations. Our analyses show the magnitude by which reaction norms can change based on the temporal scale of response data, illustrating the importance of appropriately defining temporal scales of both the movement response and covariates depending on the intended implications of research (e.g., predicting effects of movement due to climate change versus planning local-scale management). We argue that consideration of multiple spatial scales within the same framework (rather than comparing across separate studies post-hoc) gives a more accurate quantification of cross-scale spatial effects by appropriately accounting for error correlation.

Movement Ecology↗

USGS2026

Modeling the temperature-mediated link between demography and biomass in ectotherms

Population models can forecast the effects of environmental change, disturbance, and management decisions on populations of interest. Most population models focus on abundance of individuals, but biomass may be a more relevant quantity at the community or ecosystem scale, especially when investigating interaction of multiple stressors and cross-ecosystem energy flows. We developed a stage-structured population model that integrates a temperature-mediated tradeoff between development rate and final body size of invertebrates, allowing projection of both population size and standing stock biomass in ecosystems that experience disturbances. We parameterized the model for four aquatic invertebrate life-history types spanning a range of lifespan and susceptibility to disturbance. We observed several emergent properties typical of invertebrate populations but not explicitly included in the model, including self-organization of cohort structure under seasonal environments, a tradeoff between lifespan duration and rate of post-disturbance population recovery, and chaotic population dynamics under high growth rates. Sensitivity analysis revealed that although elevated mean temperature increased population size, total population biomass remained unchanged or even decreased due to declining individual biomass, which has implications for ecosystem processes under a changing climate. The seasonal timing of disturbance showed a strong interaction with temperature regime, with summer versus winter pulse disturbances affecting biomass and abundance in characteristically different ways. Linking invertebrate abundance and biomass dynamics to abiotic drivers through this time-varying matrix population model reveals how life-history shapes aquatic invertebrate response to shifting seasons, temperatures, and disturbance, which is key to understanding the impacts of climate change on aquatic ecosystems.

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS2012

Optimal temperature for malaria transmission is dramaticallylower than previously predicted

The ecology of mosquito vectors and malaria parasites affect the incidence, seasonal transmission and geographical range of malaria. Most malaria models to date assume constant or linear responses of mosquito and parasite life-history traits to temperature, predicting optimal transmission at 31 °C. These models are at odds with field observations of transmission dating back nearly a century. We build a model with more realistic ecological assumptions about the thermal physiology of insects. Our model, which includes empirically derived nonlinear thermal responses, predicts optimal malaria transmission at 25 °C (6 °C lower than previous models). Moreover, the model predicts that transmission decreases dramatically at temperatures > 28 °C, altering predictions about how climate change will affect malaria. A large data set on malaria transmission risk in Africa validates both the 25 °C optimum and the decline above 28 °C. Using these more accurate nonlinear thermal-response models will aid in understanding the effects of current and future temperature regimes on disease transmission.

Ecology Letters↗

USGS2020

Factors driving nutrient trends in streams of the Chesapeake Bay watershed

Despite decades of effort toward reducing nitrogen and phosphorus flux to Chesapeake Bay, water-quality and ecological responses in surface waters have been mixed. Recent research, however, provides useful insight into multiple factors complicating the understanding of nutrient trends in bay tributaries, which we review in this paper, as we approach a 2025 total maximum daily load (TMDL) management deadline. Improvements in water quality in many streams are attributable to management actions that reduced point sources and atmospheric nitrogen deposition and to changes in climate. Nutrient reductions expected from management actions, however, have not been fully realized in watershed streams. Nitrogen from urban nonpoint sources has declined, although water-quality responses to urbanization in individual streams vary depending on predevelopment land use. Evolving agriculture, the largest watershed source of nutrients, has likely contributed to local nutrient trends but has not affected substantial changes in flux to the bay. Changing average nitrogen yields from farmland underlain by carbonate rocks, however, may suggest future trends in other areas under similar management, climatic, or other influences, although drivers of these changes remain unclear. Regardless of upstream trends, phosphorus flux to the bay from its largest tributary has increased due to sediment infill in the Conowingo Reservoir. In general, recent research emphasizes the utility of input reductions over attempts to manage nutrient fate and transport at limiting nutrients in surface waters. Ongoing research opportunities include evaluating effects of climate change and conservation practices over time and space and developing tools to disentangle and evaluate multiple influences on regional water quality.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗

USGS2020

Seasonal and individual event-responsiveness are key determinants of carbon exchange across plant functional types

Differentiation in physiological activity is a critical component of resource partitioning in resource-limited environments. For example, it is crucial to understand how plant physiological performance varies through time for different functional groups to forecast how terrestrial ecosystems will respond to change. Here, we tracked the seasonal progress of 13 plant species representing C 3 shrub, perennial C 3 and C 4 grass, and annual forb functional groups of the Colorado Plateau, USA. We tested for differences in carbon assimilation strategies and how photosynthetic rates related to recent, seasonal, and annual precipitation and temperature variables. Despite seasonal shifts in species presence and activity, we found small differences in seasonally weighted annual photosynthetic rates among groups. However, differences in the timing of maximum assimilation ( A net ) were strongly functional group-dependent. C 3 shrubs employed a relatively consistent, low carbon capture strategy and maintained activity year-round but switched to a rapid growth strategy in response to recent climate conditions. In contrast, grasses maintained higher carbon capture during spring months when all perennials had maximum photosynthetic rates, but grasses were dormant during months when shrubs remained active. Perennial grass A net rates were explained in part by precipitation accumulated during the preceding year and average maximum temperatures during the past 48 h, a result opposite to shrubs. These results lend insight into diverse physiological strategies and their connections to climate, and also point to the potential for shrubs to increase in abundance in response to increased climatic variability in drylands, given shrubs’ ability to respond rapidly to changing conditions.

Oecologia↗

USGS2011

Equilibrium shoreline response of a high wave energy beach

Four years of beach elevation surveys at Ocean Beach, San Francisco, California, are used to extend an existing equilibrium shoreline change model, previously calibrated with fine sand and moderate energy waves, to medium sand and higher-energy waves. The shoreline, characterized as the cross-shore location of the mean high water contour, varied seasonally by between 30 and 60 m, depending on the alongshore location. The equilibrium shoreline change model relates the rate of horizontal shoreline displacement to the hourly wave energy E and the wave energy disequilibrium, the difference between E and the equilibrium wave energy that would cause no change in the present shoreline location. Values for the model shoreline response coefficients are tuned to fit the observations in 500 m alongshore segments and averaged over segments where the model has good skill and the estimated effects of neglected alongshore sediment transport are relatively small. Using these representative response coefficients for 0.3 mm sand from Ocean Beach and driving the model with much lower-energy winter waves observed at San Onofre Beach (also 0.3 mm sand) in southern California, qualitatively reproduces the small seasonal shoreline fluctuations at San Onofre. This consistency suggests that the shoreline model response coefficients depend on grain size and may be constant, and thus transportable, between sites with similar grain size and different wave climates. The calibrated model response coefficients predict that for equal fluctuations in wave energy, changes in shoreline location on a medium-grained (0.3 mm) beach are much smaller than on a previously studied fine-grained (0.2 mm) beach. Copyright ?? 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗

USGS2014

Comparative biogeochemistry-ecosystem-human interactions on dynamic continental margins

The ocean’s continental margins face strong and rapid change, forced by a combination of direct human activity, anthropogenic CO 2 -induced climate change, and natural variability. Stimulated by discussions in Goa, India at the IMBER IMBIZO III, we (1) provide an overview of the drivers of biogeochemical variation and change on margins, (2) compare temporal trends in hydrographic and biogeochemical data across different margins (3) review ecosystem responses to these changes, (4) highlight the importance of margin time series for detecting and attributing change and (5) examine societal responses to changing margin biogeochemistry and ecosystems. We synthesize information over a wide range of margin settings in order to identify the commonalities and distinctions among continental margin ecosystems. Key drivers of biogeochemical variation include long-term climate cycles, CO 2 -induced warming, acidification, and deoxygenation, as well as sea level rise, eutrophication, hydrologic and water cycle alteration, changing land use, fishing, and species invasion. Ecosystem responses are complex and impact major margin services including primary production, fisheries production, nutrient cycling, shoreline protection, chemical buffering, and biodiversity. Despite regional differences, the societal consequences of these changes are unarguably large and mandate coherent actions to reduce, mitigate and adapt to multiple stressors on continental margins.

Journal of Marine Systems↗

USGS2018

The response of source-bordering aeolian dunefields to sediment-supply changes 1: Effects of wind variability and river-valley morphodynamics

Source-bordering dunefields (SBDs), which are primarily built and maintained with river-derived sediment, are found in many large river valleys and are currently impacted by changes in sediment supply due to climate change, land use changes, and river regulation. Despite their importance, a physically based, applied approach for quantifying the response of SBDs to changes in sediment supply does not exist. To address this knowledge gap, here we develop an approach for quantifying the geomorphic responses to sediment-supply alteration based on the interpretation of dunefield morphodynamics from geomorphic change detection and wind characteristics. We use the approach to test hypotheses about the response of individual dunefields to variability in sediment supply at three SBDs along the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, Arizona, USA during the 11 years between 2002 and 2013 when several river floods rebuilt some river sandbars and channel margin deposits that serve as sediment source areas for the SBDs. We demonstrate that resupply of fluvially sourced aeolian sediment occurred at one of the SBDs, but not at the other two, and attribute this differential response to site-specific variability in geomorphology, wind, and sediment source areas. The approach we present is applied in a companion study to shorter time periods with high-resolution topographic data that bracket individual floods in order to infer the resupply of fluvially sourced aeolian sediment to SBDs by managed river flows. Such an applied methodology could also be useful for measuring sediment connectivity and anthropogenic alterations of connectivity in other coupled fluvial-aeolian environments.

Arizona↗

USGS2010

Global climate changes recorded in coastal wetland sediments: Empirical observations linked to theoretical predictions

Whether coastal areas are experiencing, and responding to, an accelerated rate of global sea-level rise (GSLR) is critically important for the ∼2 billion people living near Earth's oceans. Accretion rates from a suite of physiographically diverse coastal wetlands surrounding Long Island, NY accelerated during the 20th century at 2.3 ± 0.2 × 10 −2 mm yr −2 , which is comparable to reported rates of GSLR acceleration and global temperature changes. Wetlands varied in tidal range, salinity and geomorphic setting, and were located in embayments with limited human impacts in a region with limited and constant rates of subsidence. From geochronologies with temporal resolutions of 2–5 yr, we constructed new composite histories of sediment accretion and mineral deposition. Wetland dynamics are consistent with predictions from sedimentology and a numerical model of ecogeomorphic response, suggesting that these systems, and likely others worldwide, are responding to accelerated GSLR and related climatic changes.

New York↗

USGS2016

Effects of climate and water balance across grasslands of varying C 3 and C 4 grass cover

Climate change in grassland ecosystems may lead to divergent shifts in the abundance and distribution of C 3 and C 4 grasses. Many studies relate mean climate conditions over relatively long time periods to plant cover, but there is still much uncertainty about how the balance of C 3 and C 4 species will be affected by climate at a finer temporal scale than season (individual events to months). We monitored cover at five grassland sites with co-dominant C 3 and C 4 grass species or only dominant C 3 grass species for 6 yr in national parks across the Colorado Plateau region to assess the influence of specific months of climate and water balance on changes in grass cover. C 4 grass cover increased and decreased to a larger degree than C 3 grass cover with extremely dry and wet consecutive years, but this response varied by ecological site. Climate and water balance explained 10–49% of the inter-annual variability of cover of C 3 and C 4 grasses at all sites. High precipitation in the spring and in previous year monsoon storms influenced changes in cover of C 4 grasses, with measures of water balance in the same months explaining additional variability. C 3 grasses in grasslands where they were dominant were influenced primarily by longer periods of climate, while C 3 grasses in grasslands where they were co-dominant with C 4 grasses were influenced little by climate anomalies at either short or long periods of time. Our results suggest that future changes in spring and summer climate and water balance are likely to affect cover of both C 3 and C 4 grasses, but cover of C 4 grasses may be affected more strongly, and the degree of change will depend on soils and topography where they are growing and the timing of the growing season.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2012

Drivers of change in estuarine-coastal ecosystems: Discoveries from four decades of study in San Francisco Bay

Poised at the interface of rivers, ocean, atmosphere and dense human settlement, estuaries are driven by a large array of natural and anthropogenic forces. San Francisco Bay exemplifies the fast-paced change occurring in many of the world's estuaries, bays and inland seas in response to these diverse forces. We use observations from this particularly well-studied estuary to illustrate responses to six drivers that are common agents of change where land and sea meet: water consumption and diversion; human modification of sediment supply; introduction of non-native species; sewage input; environmental policy; and climate shifts. In San Francisco Bay, responses to these drivers include, respectively, shifts in the timing and extent of freshwater inflow and salinity intrusion; decreasing turbidity; restructuring of plankton communities; nutrient enrichment; elimination of hypoxia and reduced metal contamination of biota; and food web changes that decrease resistance of the estuary to nutrient pollution. Detection of these changes and discovery of their causes through environmental monitoring have been essential for establishing and measuring outcomes of environmental policies that aim to maintain high water quality and sustain services provided by estuarine-coastal ecosystems. The wide range of variability time scales and the multiplicity of interacting drivers place heavy demands on estuarine monitoring programs. But the San Francisco Bay case study illustrates why the imperative for monitoring has never been greater.

California↗

USGS1993

Laguna madre: Seagrass changes continue decades after salinity reduction

Vegetation maps of the lower Laguna Madre prepared from surveys conducted in 1965–1967, 1974–1976, and 1988 document a >330 km 2 decrease in cover by Halodule wrightii , an increase of almost 190 km 2 in other seagrass species, and an increase of 140 km 2 in bare bottom. Loss in seagrass cover is confined to deeper parts of the laguna; turbidity caused by maintenance dredging is the suspected cause. The species shifts are consistent with observed reductions in salinity maxima. Although the hydrological alterations and climatic shift responsible for moderating the salinity regime occurred between 1948 and 1965, the biological changes continue. Establishment of patches away from source meadows appears to be the process for displacing species that limits their rate of expansion into suitable habitat in this elongate embayment.

Texas↗

USGS2016

Temperature response of soil respiration largely unaltered with experimental warming

The respiratory release of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from soil is a major yet poorly understood flux in the global carbon cycle. Climatic warming is hypothesized to increase rates of soil respiration, potentially fueling further increases in global temperatures. However, despite considerable scientific attention in recent decades, the overall response of soil respiration to anticipated climatic warming remains unclear. We synthesize the largest global dataset to date of soil respiration, moisture, and temperature measurements, totaling >3,800 observations representing 27 temperature manipulation studies, spanning nine biomes and over 2 decades of warming. Our analysis reveals no significant differences in the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration between control and warmed plots in all biomes, with the exception of deserts and boreal forests. Thus, our data provide limited evidence of acclimation of soil respiration to experimental warming in several major biome types, contrary to the results from multiple single-site studies. Moreover, across all nondesert biomes, respiration rates with and without experimental warming follow a Gaussian response, increasing with soil temperature up to a threshold of ∼25 °C, above which respiration rates decrease with further increases in temperature. This consistent decrease in temperature sensitivity at higher temperatures demonstrates that rising global temperatures may result in regionally variable responses in soil respiration, with colder climates being considerably more responsive to increased ambient temperatures compared with warmer regions. Our analysis adds a unique cross-biome perspective on the temperature response of soil respiration, information critical to improving our mechanistic understanding of how soil carbon dynamics change with climatic warming.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗