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USGS2016

Consequences of changes in vegetation and snow cover for climate feedbacks in Alaska and northwest Canada

Changes in vegetation and snow cover may lead to feedbacks to climate through changes in surface albedo and energy fluxes between the land and atmosphere. In addition to these biogeophysical feedbacks, biogeochemical feedbacks associated with changes in carbon (C) storage in the vegetation and soils may also influence climate. Here, using a transient biogeographic model (ALFRESCO) and an ecosystem model (DOS-TEM), we quantified the biogeophysical feedbacks due to changes in vegetation and snow cover across continuous permafrost to non-permafrost ecosystems in Alaska and northwest Canada. We also computed the changes in carbon storage in this region to provide a general assessment of the direction of the biogeochemical feedback. We considered four ecoregions, or Landscape Conservations Cooperatives (LCCs; including the Arctic, North Pacific, Western Alaska, and Northwest Boreal). We examined the 90 year period from 2010 to 2099 using one future emission scenario (A1B), under outputs from two general circulation models (MPI-ECHAM5 and CCCMA-CGCM3.1). We found that changes in snow cover duration, including both the timing of snowmelt in the spring and snow return in the fall, provided the dominant positive biogeophysical feedback to climate across all LCCs, and was greater for the ECHAM (+3.1 W m −2 decade −1 regionally) compared to the CCCMA (+1.3 W m −2 decade −1 regionally) scenario due to an increase in loss of snow cover in the ECHAM scenario. The greatest overall negative feedback to climate from changes in vegetation cover was due to fire in spruce forests in the Northwest Boreal LCC and fire in shrub tundra in the Western LCC (−0.2 to −0.3 W m −2 decade −1 ). With the larger positive feedbacks associated with reductions in snow cover compared to the smaller negative feedbacks associated with shifts in vegetation, the feedback to climate warming was positive (total feedback of +2.7 W m −2 decade regionally in the ECHAM scenario compared to +0.76 W m −2 decade regionally in the CCCMA scenario). Overall, increases in C storage in the vegetation and soils across the study region would act as a negative feedback to climate. By exploring these feedbacks to climate, we can reach a more integrated understanding of the manner in which climate change may impact interactions between high-latitude ecosystems and the global climate system.

Environmental Research Letters↗

USGS2013

Modeling the effects of fire severity and climate warming on active layer and soil carbon dynamics of black spruce forests across the landscape in interior Alaska

There is a substantial amount of carbon stored in the permafrost soils of boreal forest ecosystems, where it is currently protected from decomposition. The surface organic horizons insulate the deeper soil from variations in atmospheric temperature. The removal of these insulating horizons through consumption by fire increases the vulnerability of permafrost to thaw, and the carbon stored in permafrost to decomposition. In this study we ask how warming and fire regime may influence spatial and temporal changes in active layer and carbon dynamics across a boreal forest landscape in interior Alaska. To address this question, we (1) developed and tested a predictive model of the effect of fire severity on soil organic horizons that depends on landscape-level conditions and (2) used this model to evaluate the long-term consequences of warming and changes in fire regime on active layer and soil carbon dynamics of black spruce forests across interior Alaska. The predictive model of fire severity, designed from the analysis of field observations, reproduces the effect of local topography (landform category, the slope angle and aspect and flow accumulation), weather conditions (drought index, soil moisture) and fire characteristics (day of year and size of the fire) on the reduction of the organic layer caused by fire. The integration of the fire severity model into an ecosystem process-based model allowed us to document the relative importance and interactions among local topography, fire regime and climate warming on active layer and soil carbon dynamics. Lowlands were more resistant to severe fires and climate warming, showing smaller increases in active layer thickness and soil carbon loss compared to drier flat uplands and slopes. In simulations that included the effects of both warming and fire at the regional scale, fire was primarily responsible for a reduction in organic layer thickness of 0.06 m on average by 2100 that led to an increase in active layer thickness of 1.1 m on average by 2100. The combination of warming and fire led to a simulated cumulative loss of 9.6 kgC m −2 on average by 2100. Our analysis suggests that ecosystem carbon storage in boreal forests in interior Alaska is particularly vulnerable, primarily due to the combustion of organic layer thickness in fire and the related increase in active layer thickness that exposes previously protected permafrost soil carbon to decomposition.

Alaska↗

USGS1998

Detailed study of selenium and selected constituents in water, bottom sediment, soil, and biota associated with irrigation drainage in the San Juan River area, New Mexico, 1991-95

In response to increasing concern about the quality of irrigation drainage and its potential effects on fish, wildlife, and human health, the U.S. Department of the Interior began the National Irrigation Water Quality Program (NIWQP) to investigate these concerns at irrigation projects sponsored by the Department. The San Juan River area in northwestern New Mexico was one of the areas designated for study. Study teams composed of scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the Bureau of Reclamation, and the Bureau of Indian Affairs collected water, bottom-sediment, soil, and biological samples at 61 sites in the San Juan River area during 1993-94. Supplemental data collection conducted during 1991-95 by the Bureau of Indian Affairs and its contractor extended the time period and sampling sites available for analysis. Analytical chemistry performed on samples indicated that most potentially toxic elements other than selenium generally were not high enough to be of concern to fish, wildlife, and human health. Element concentrations in some water, bottom-sediment, soil, and biological samples exceeded applicable standards and criteria suggested by researchers in current literature. Selenium concentrations in water samples from 28 sites in the study area exceeded the 2-microgramper-liter (lg/L) wildlife-habitat standard. Vanadium concentrations in water exceeded the 100-Kg/L standard for livestock-drinking water at one site. In biota, selenium and aluminum concentrations regularly equaled or exceeded avian dietary threshold concentrations. In bottom sediment and soil, element concentrations above the upper limit of the baseline range for western soils were: selenium, 24 exceedances; lead, 2 exceedances; molybdenum, 2 exceedances;strontium, 4 exceedances; and zinc, 4 exceedances. Concentrations of total selenium in bottom-sediment and soil samples were significantly greater for Cretaceous than for non-Cretaceous soil types in the study area and were generally similar for habitats within and outside irrigation-affected areas. Mean and median total-selenium concentrations in samples from areas with Cretaceous soil types were 4.6 and 2.2 micrograms per gram (ps/g), respectively. Mean and median total-selenium concentrations in samples from areas with non-Cretaceous soil types were 0.6 and 0.15 pg/g, respectively. Samples from the study area had low concentrations of organic constituents. Organochlorine pesticides and polychlorinated biphenyls were detected in a few biological samples at low concentrations. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) compounds were not detected in whole-water samples collected using conventional water-sampling techniques. In tests involving the use of semipermeable-membrane devices to supplement conventional water assays for PAH's, low concentrations of PAH's were found at several locations in the Hammond Irrigation Supply Canal, but were not detected in the Hammond ponds at the downstream reach of the Hammond irrigation service area. PAH compounds do not appear to reach the San Juan River through the Hammond Canal. Data indicate that water samples from irrigation-drainage-affected habitats had increased mean selenium concentrations compared with samples from irrigation-delivery habitat. The mean selenium concentration in water was greatest at seeps and tributaries draining irrigated land (17 μg/L); less in irrigation drains and in ponds on irrigated land (61.tg/L); and least in backwater, the San Juan River, and irrigation-supply water (0.5 - 0.6 μg/L). Statistical tests imply that irrigation significantly increases selenium concentrations in water samples when a Department of the Interior irrigation project is developed on selenium-rich sediments. Water samples from sites with Cretaceous soils had significantly greater selenium concentrations than water samples from sites with non-Cretaceous soils. Water samples from Department of the Interior project irrigation-drainage sites developed on Cretaceous soils contained a mean selenium concentration about 10 times greater than those in samples from Department of the Interior project sites developed on non-Cretaceous soils. Selenium was much less concentrated in water than in bottom sediment, soil, or biota in the study area. The range in concentrations of dissolved selenium in water was less than 1 ptg/L to 37 1.1g/L (less than 1 to 37 parts per billion). The range in concentrations of total selenium in bottom sediment and soil was less than 0.1 to 23lig/g (less than 100 to 23,000 parts per billion). The range in concentration of selenium in biota was less than 0.1 to 24.0 fig/g (less than 100 to 24,000 parts per billion). Data indicated that bioaccumulation and leaching from soil were the important processes at the study area that lead to elevated levels of selenium. Other processes examined included: (1) evapoconcentration of selenium; (2) atmospheric deposition of aerosols containing selenium; and (3) contamination of surface water by point-source or non-point-source discharges. Selenium concentrations in biological samples were evaluated by a number of variables including: (1) media sampled (emergent and submergent plants, nektonic and benthic invertebrates, omnivore/herbivore and carnivore fish, and terrestrial and aquatic amphibians); (2) habitat (San Juan River main-stem reaches, backwaters, tributary reaches, irrigation delivery or drainage canals, and ponds); (3) irrigation project area and reference sites; and (4) soil type (non-Cretaceous or Cretaceous soils). Graphical techniques and nonparametric statistical tests were applied to determine the influence of selected physiographic variables on selenium concentrations in biological samples collected in the San Juan River area. Species of sucker and of smaller fish contained significantly higher selenium concentrations in the upstream portion of the river where a productive community of plants and animals is found that is associated with warming, nutrient-rich waters discharged from an upstream reservoir. Selenium concentrations in algae, odonates, and mosquitofish collected from both irrigation-drain and pond habitats underlain by Cretaceous soils were significantly greater than in those collected from similar habitats underlain by non-Cretaceous soils. Investigators conclude that the major factor affecting the variability of selenium accumulation in biota at aquatic habitats was the presence of underlying Cretaceous soils. Median selenium concentrations were less than 2 lAg/g for plant samples, less than 7 μg/g for invertebrate samples, and less than 6 lAg/g for whole-fish samples collected from aquatic habitats underlain by non-Cretaceous soils. Similar samples collected from aquatic habitats underlain by Cretaceous soils contained median selenium concentrations two to five times greater. Leaching of selenium from Cretaceous soils in the San Juan River area increases the accumulation of selenium concentrations in the biota and thereby increases the exposure and potential health risks associated with selenium to migratory birds, fish, and other wildlife that use these aquatic habitats extensively. Aquatic habitats presenting the greatest average exposure to excess selenium concentrations in the diets of resident wildlife are from consumption of plants, invertebrates, and fish at irrigation-drain habitats underlain by Cretaceous soils. Of the irrigation projects evaluated in the San Juan River area, the highest median selenium concentrations in algae, cattail leaves, odonate nymphs, mosquitofish, and leopard frog samples from the study area were collected from the east hogback irrigation drain.

New Mexico↗

USGS2009

Dual nitrate isotopes in dry deposition: Utility for partitioning NOx source contributions to landscape nitrogen deposition

Dry deposition is a major component of total atmospheric nitrogen deposition and thus an important source of bioavailable nitrogen to ecosystems. However, relative to wet deposition, less is known regarding the sources and spatial variability of dry deposition. This is in part due to difficulty in measuring dry deposition and associated deposition velocities. Passive sampling techniques offer potential for improving our understanding of the spatial distribution and sources of gaseous and aerosol N species, referred to here as dry deposition. We report dual nitrate isotopic composition ( δ 15 N and δ 18 O) in actively collected dry and wet deposition across the high‐deposition region of Ohio, New York, and Pennsylvania. We also present results from initial tests to examine the efficacy of using passive nitric acid collectors as a collection medium for isotopic analysis at a site in New York. Isotopic values in actively collected dry deposition, including particulate nitrate and gaseous nitric acid, are compared with those in wet nitrate deposition and surrounding NO x emission sources. δ 15 N values in dry and wet fractions are highest at the westernmost sites and lowest at the easternmost sites, and stationary source NO x emissions (e.g., power plants and incinerators) appear to be the primary control on δ 15 N spatial variability. In contrast, δ 18 O values show a less consistent spatial pattern in dry deposition. Both δ 15 N and δ 18 O show strong seasonality, with higher values in winter than summer. Seasonal variations in stationary source NO x emissions appear to be the most likely explanation for seasonal variations in δ 15 N, whereas seasonal variations in air temperature and solar radiation indicate variable chemical oxidation pathways control δ 18 O patterns. Additionally, we demonstrate the utility of passive samplers for collecting the nitric acid (HNO 3 ) component of dry deposition suitable for isotopic analysis. We observe slight differences in δ 15 N‐HNO 3 values between simultaneous samples collected actively and passively (0.6‰). However, we observe a larger offset in δ 18 O values between actively and passively collected samples; the causes for this offset warrant further investigation. Nonetheless, passive sample collection represents a significant cost savings over active sampling techniques and could allow a more extensive understanding of patterns of dry deposition and associated insights to nitrogen sources across landscapes.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences↗

USGS2001

Coastal change analysis program implemented in Louisiana

Landsat Thematic Mapper images from 1990 to 1996 and collateral data sources were used to classify the land cover of the Mermentau River Basin (MRB) within the Chenier Plain of coastal Louisiana. Landcover classes followed the definition of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Coastal Change Analysis Program; however, classification methods had to be developed as part of this study for attainment of these national classification standards. Classification method developments were especially important when classes were spectrally inseparable, when classes were part of spatial and spectral continuums, when the spatial resolution of the sensor included more than one landcover type, and when human activities caused abnormal transitions in the landscape. Most classification problems were overcome by using one or a combination of techniques, such as separating the MRB into subregions of commonality, applying masks to specific land mixtures, and highlighting class transitions between years that were highly unlikely. Overall, 1990, 1993, and 1996 classification accuracy percentages (associated kappa statistics) were 80% (0.79), 78% (0.76), and 86% (0.84), respectively. Most classification errors were associated with confusion between managed (cultivated land) and unmanaged grassland classes; scrub shrub, grasslands and forest classes; water, unconsolidated shore and bare land classes; and especially in 1993, between water and floating vegetation classes. Combining cultivated land and grassland classes and water and floating vegetation classes into single classes accuracies for 1990, 1993, and 1996 increased to 82%, 83%, and 90%, respectively. To improve the interpretation of landcover change, three indicators of landcover class stability were formulated. Location stability was defined as the percentage of a landcover class that remained as the same class in the same location at the beginning and the end of the monitoring period. Residence stability was defined as the percent change in each class within the entire MRB during the monitoring period. Turnover was defined as the addition of other landcover classes to the target landcover class during the defined monitoring period. These indicators allowed quick assessment of the dynamic nature of landcover classes, both in reference to a spatial location and to retaining their presence throughout the MRB. Examining the landcover changes between 1990 to 1993 and 1993 to 1996, led us to five principal findings: (1) Landcover turnover is maintaining a near stable logging cycle, although the locations of grassland, scrub shrub, and forest areas involved in the cycle appeared to change. (2) Planting of seedlings is critical to maintaining cycle stability. (3) Logging activities tend to replace woody land mixed forests with woody land evergreen forests. (4) Wetland estuarine marshes are expanding slightly. (5) Wetland palustrine marshes and mature forested wetlands in the MRB are relatively stable.

Louisiana↗

USGS2007

Earthquake likelihood model testing

INTRODUCTION The Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) project aims to produce and evaluate alternate models of earthquake potential (probability per unit volume, magnitude, and time) for California. Based on differing assumptions, these models are produced to test the validity of their assumptions and to explore which models should be incorporated in seismic hazard and risk evaluation. Tests based on physical and geological criteria are useful but we focus on statistical methods using future earthquake catalog data only. We envision two evaluations: a test of consistency with observed data and a comparison of all pairs of models for relative consistency. Both tests are based on the likelihood method, and both are fully prospective ( i.e. , the models are not adjusted to fit the test data). To be tested, each model must assign a probability to any possible event within a specified region of space, time, and magnitude. For our tests the models must use a common format: earthquake rates in specified “bins” with location, magnitude, time, and focal mechanism limits. Seismology cannot yet deterministically predict individual earthquakes; however, it should seek the best possible models for forecasting earthquake occurrence. This paper describes the statistical rules of an experiment to examine and test earthquake forecasts. The primary purposes of the tests described below are to evaluate physical models for earthquakes, assure that source models used in seismic hazard and risk studies are consistent with earthquake data, and provide quantitative measures by which models can be assigned weights in a consensus model or be judged as suitable for particular regions. In this paper we develop a statistical method for testing earthquake likelihood models. A companion paper ( Schorlemmer and Gerstenberger 2007 , this issue) discusses the actual implementation of these tests in the framework of the RELM initiative. Statistical testing of hypotheses is a common task and a wide range of possible testing procedures exist. Jolliffe and Stephenson ( 2003 ) present different forecast verifications from atmospheric science, among them likelihood testing of probability forecasts and testing the occurrence of binary events. Testing binary events requires that for each forecasted event, the spatial, temporal and magnitude limits be given. Although major earthquakes can be considered binary events, the models within the RELM project express their forecasts on a spatial grid and in 0.1 magnitude units; thus the results are a distribution of rates over space and magnitude. These forecasts can be tested with likelihood tests. In general, likelihood tests assume a valid null hypothesis against which a given hypothesis is tested. The outcome is either a rejection of the null hypothesis in favor of the test hypothesis or a nonrejection, meaning the test hypothesis cannot outperform the null hypothesis at a given significance level. Within RELM, there is no accepted null hypothesis and thus the likelihood test needs to be expanded to allow comparable testing of equipollent hypotheses. To test models against one another, we require that forecasts are expressed in a standard format: the average rate of earthquake occurrence within pre-specified limits of hypocentral latitude, longitude, depth, magnitude, time period, and focal mechanisms. Focal mechanisms should either be described as the inclination of P -axis, declination of P -axis, and inclination of the T -axis, or as strike, dip, and rake angles. Schorlemmer and Gerstenberger ( 2007 , this issue) designed classes of these parameters such that similar models will be tested against each other. These classes make the forecasts comparable between models. Additionally, we are limited to testing only what is precisely defined and consistently reported in earthquake catalogs. Therefore it is currently not possible to test such information as fault rupture length or area, asperity location, etc. Also, to account for data quality issues, we allow for location and magnitude uncertainties as well as the probability that an event is dependent on another event. As we mentioned above, only models with comparable forecasts can be tested against each other. Our current tests are designed to examine grid-based models. This requires that any fault-based model be adapted to a grid before testing is possible. While this is a limitation of the testing, it is an inherent difficulty in any such comparative testing. Please refer to appendix B for a statistical evaluation of the application of the Poisson hypothesis to fault-based models. The testing suite we present consists of three different tests: L-Test, N-Test, and R-Test. These tests are defined similarily to Kagan and Jackson ( 1995 ). The first two tests examine the consistency of the hypotheses with the observations while the last test compares the spatial performances of the models.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2000

Detection of crystalline hematite mineralization on Mars by the Thermal Emission Spectrometer: evidence for near-surface water

The Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) instrument on the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) mission has discovered a remarkable accumulation of crystalline hematite (α-Fe 2 O 3 ) that covers an area with very sharp boundaries approximately 350 by 350–750 km in size centered near 2°S latitude between 0° and 5°W longitude (Sinus Meridiani). Crystalline hematite is uniquely identified by the presence of fundamental vibrational absorption features centered near 300, 450, and >525 cm −1 and by the absence of silicate fundamentals in the 1000 cm −1 region. Spectral features resulting from atmospheric CO 2 , dust, and water ice were removed using a radiative transfer model. The spectral properties unique to Sinus Meridiani were emphasized by removing the average spectrum of the surrounding region. The depth and shape of the hematite fundamental bands show that the hematite is crystalline and relatively coarse grained (>5–10 μm). Diameters up to and greater than hundreds of micrometers are permitted within the instrumental noise and natural variability of hematite spectra. Hematite particles <5–10 μm in diameter (as either unpacked or hard-packed powders) fail to match the TES spectra. The spectrally derived areal abundance of hematite varies with particle size from ∼10% (>30 μm diameter) to 40–60% (10 μm diameter). The hematite in Sinus Meridiani is thus distinct from the fine-grained (diameter <5–10 μm), red, crystalline hematite considered, on the basis of visible, near-IR data, to be a minor spectral component in Martian bright regions like Olympus-Amazonis. Sinus Meridiani hematite is closely associated with a smooth, layered, friable surface that is interpreted to be sedimentary in origin. This material may be the uppermost surface in the region, indicating that it might be a late stage sedimentary unit or a layered portion of the heavily cratered plains units. We consider five possible mechanisms for the formation of coarse-grained, crystalline hematite. These processes fall into two classes depending on whether they require a significant amount of near-surface water: the first is chemical precipitation that includes origin by (1) precipitation from standing, oxygenated, Fe-rich water (oxide iron formations), (2) precipitation from Fe-rich hydrothermal fluids, (3) low-temperature dissolution and precipitation through mobile ground water leaching, and (4) formation of surface coatings, and the second is thermal oxidation of magnetite-rich lavas. Weathering and alteration processes, which produce nanophase and red hematite, are not consistent with the coarse, crystalline hematite observed in Sinus Meridiani. We prefer chemical precipitation models and favor precipitation from Fe-rich water on the basis of the probable association with sedimentary materials, large geographic size, distance from a regional heat source, and lack of evidence for extensive groundwater processes elsewhere on Mars. The TES results thus provide mineralogic evidence for probable large-scale water interactions. The Sinus Meridiani region may be an ideal candidate for future landed missions searching for biotic and prebiotic environments, and the physical characteristics of this site satisfy all of the engineering requirements for the missions currently planned.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

USGS1981

Significant results from using earth observation satellites for mineral and energy resource exploration

A large number of Earth-observation satellites orbit our world several times each day, providing new information about the land and sea surfaces and the overlying thin layer of atmosphere that makes our planet unique. Meteorological satellites have had the longest history of experimental use and most are now considered operational. The geologic information collected by the Landsat, Polar Orbiting Geophysical Observatory (POGO), Magsat, Heat Capacity Mapping Mission (HCMM) and Seasat land and ocean observation systems is being thoroughly tested, and some of these systems are now approaching operational use. Landsat multispectral images provide views of large areas of the Earth under uniform lighting conditions and can be obtained at a variety of scales and formats. Not only do the Landsat data provide highly useful images showing surficial materials and structures such as folds and faults, but also measurements and computer-derived ratios of the brightness of different rock types, alteration zones, and mineral associations. These data have led to the finding of a variety of new ore deposits. In addition, the combination of Landsat digital data and aeromagnetic data has extended the use of Landsat as an exploration tool which can be used to readily relate surface features to subsurface anomalies. Magsat data, now being collected, are helping refine information on major crustal anomalies that were first recognized during the analysis of POGO data. The more nearly circular orbit, lower altitude, and increased sophistication of its vector magnetometer enable Magsat to provide more precise information than POGO. Information of this type is required to develop crustal models. Although Magsat is designed to operate for only 4–8 months, the number of orbits that it should be able to make will be sufficient to accomplish its mission and to record a major magnetic storm expected in 1980. HCMM is a two-band visible to near-IR (0.55–1.1 μm) and thermal infrared (10.2–12.5 μm) system designed to measure reflected solar energy, determine the heat capacity of rocks and to monitor soil moisture, thermal effluents, plant canopy temperatures and snow cover. Launched in April 1978, it is in sun-synchronous, circular orbit at an altitude of 620 km. It is a relatively low-resolution system with an instantaneous field of view (IFOV) of 500–600 m and a swath width of 716 km. However, the system is designed to detect objects in the range of 260°–340° K with a sensitivity (NEδT) of 0.4°K at 280°. Recording the thermal radiation of urban heat islands and high thermal inertia of quartzite strata in the Appalachian region are two examples of its land applications. Launched in June 1978, Seasat operated for only 100 days, but successfully acquired much information over both sea and land. The collection of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery and radar altimetry was particularly important to geologists. Although there are difficulties in processing and distributing these data in a timely manner, initial evaluations indicate that the radar imagery supplements Landsat data by increasing the spectral range and offering a different look angle. The radar altimeter provides accurate profiles over narrow strips of land (1 km wide) and has demonstrated usefulness in measuring icecap surfaces (Greenland, Iceland, and Antarctica). The Salar of Uyuni in southern Bolivia served as a calibration site for the altimeter and has enabled investigators to develop a land-based smoothing algorithm that is believed to increase the accuracy of the system to 10 cm. Data from the altimeter are currently being used to measure subsidence resulting from ground water withdrawal in the Phoenix-Tucson area.

Advances in Space Research↗

USGS2001

Magmatic gas scrubbing: Implications for volcano monitoring

Despite the abundance of SO2(g) in magmatic gases, precursory increases in magmatic SO2(g) are not always observed prior to volcanic eruption, probably because many terrestrial volcanoes contain abundant groundwater or surface water that scrubs magmatic gases until a dry pathway to the atmosphere is established. To better understand scrubbing and its implications for volcano monitoring, we model thermochemically the reaction of magmatic gases with water. First, we inject a 915??C magmatic gas from Merapi volcano into 25??C air-saturated water (ASW) over a wide range of gas/water mass ratios from 0.0002 to 100 and at a total pressure of 0.1 MPa. Then we model closed-system cooling of the magmatic gas, magmatic gas-ASW mixing at 5.0 MPa, runs with varied temperature and composition of the ASW, a case with a wide range of magmatic-gas compositions, and a reaction of a magmatic gas-ASW mixture with rock. The modeling predicts gas and water compositions, and, in one case, alteration assemblages for a wide range of scrubbing conditions; these results can be compared directly with samples from degassing volcanoes. The modeling suggests that CO2(g) is the main species to monitor when scrubbing exists; another candidate is H2S(g), but it can be affected by reactions with aqueous ferrous iron. In contrast, scrubbing by water will prevent significant SO2(g) and most HCl(g) emissions until dry pathways are established, except for moderate HCl(g) degassing from pH < 0.5 hydrothermal waters. Furthermore, it appears that scrubbing will prevent much, if any, SO2(g) degassing from long-resident boiling hydrothermal systems. Several processes can also decrease or increase H2(g) emissions during scrubbing making H2(g) a poor choice to detect changes in magma degassing. We applied the model results to interpret field observations and emission rate data from four eruptions: (1) Crater Peak on Mount Spurr (1992) where, except for a short post-eruptive period, scrubbing appears to have drastically diminished pre-, inter-, and post-eruptive SO2(g) emissions, but had much less impact on CO2(g) emissions. (2) Mount St. Helens where scrubbing of SO2(g) was important prior to and three weeks after the 18 May 1980 eruption. Scrubbing was also active during a period of unrest in the summer of 1998. (3) Mount Pinatubo where early drying out prevented SO2(g) scrubbing before the climactic 15 June 1991 eruption. (4) The ongoing eruption at Popocate??petl in an arid region of Mexico where there is little evidence of scrubbing. In most eruptive cycles, the impact of scrubbing will be greater during pre- and post-eruptive periods than during the main eruptive and intense passive degassing stages. Therefore, we recommend monitoring the following gases: CO2(g) and H2S(g) in precursory stages; CO2(g), H2S(g), SO2(g), HCl(g), and HF(g) in eruptive and intense passive degassing stages; and CO2(g) and H2S(g) again in the declining stages. CO2(g) is clearly the main candidate for early emission rate monitoring, although significant early increases in the intensity and geographic distribution of H2S(g) emissions should be taken as an important sign of volcanic unrest and a potential precursor. Owing to the difficulty of extracting SO2(g) from hydrothermal waters, the emergence of > 100 t/d (tons per day) of SO2(g) in addition to CO2(g) and H2S(g) should be taken as a criterion of magma intrusion. Finally, the modeling suggests that the interpretation of gas-ratio data requires a case-by-case evaluation since ratio changes can often be produced by several mechanisms; nevertheless, several gas ratios may provide useful indices for monitoring the drying out of gas pathways. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

USGS2015

Surface monitoring of microseismicity at the Decatur, Illinois, CO2 sequestration demonstration site

Sequestration of CO2 into subsurface reservoirs can play an important role in limiting future emission of CO2 into the atmosphere (e.g., Benson and Cole, 2008). For geologic sequestration to become a viable option to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, large-volume injection of supercritical CO2 into deep sedimentary formations is required. These formations offer large pore volumes and good pore connectivity and are abundant (Bachu, 2003; U.S. Geological Survey Geologic Carbon Dioxide Storage Resources Assessment Team, 2013). However, hazards associated with injection of CO2 into deep formations require evaluation before widespread sequestration can be adopted safely (Zoback and Gorelick, 2012). One of these hazards is the potential to induce seismicity on pre-existing faults or fractures. If these faults or fractures are large and critically stressed, seismic events can occur with magnitudes large enough to pose a hazard to surface installations and, possibly more critical, the seal integrity of the cap rock. The Decatur, Illinois, carbon capture and storage (CCS) demonstration site is the first, and to date, only CCS project in the United States that injects a large volume of supercritical CO2 into a regionally extensive, undisturbed saline formation. The first phase of the Decatur CCS project was completed in November 2014 after injecting a million metric tons of supercritical CO2 over three years. This phase was led by the Illinois State Geological Survey (ISGS) and included seismic monitoring using deep borehole sensors, with a few sensors installed within the injection horizon. Although the deep borehole network provides a more comprehensive seismic catalog than is presented in this paper, these deep data are not publicly available. We contend that for monitoring induced microseismicity as a possible seismic hazard and to elucidate the general patterns of microseismicity, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) surface and shallow borehole network described below provides an adequate event detection threshold. The formation targeted for injection is the Mount Simon Sandstone, which is laterally extensive, has high porosity and permeability and has the potential to host future CCS projects due to its favorable hydrologic characteristics and proximity to industrial sources of CO2 (Birkholzer and Zhou, 2009). At Decatur, CO2, a byproduct of ethanol production at the Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) facility, is compressed to supercritical state and injected at 2.1 km depth into the 460 m thick Mount Simon Sandstone. This sandstone has varying properties, ranging from the lower, fine- to coarse-grained sandstone with high permeability and porosity, to the middle and upper Mount Simon, which consist of planar, cross-bedded layers of varied permeability and porosity (Leetaru and Freiburg, 2014). The changes in permeability and porosity within the Mount Simon Sandstone, due to depositional and diagenetic differences, create horizontal baffles, which inhibit vertical flow and restrict the injected CO2 to remain near the injection horizon (Bowen et al., 2011). The lowest portion of the Mount Simon Sandstone overlying the Precambrian rhyolite basement is the Pre-Mount Simon interval, generally < 15 m in thickness and composed of fine- to medium-grain size sandstone that is highly deformed (Leetaru and Freiburg, 2014). The basement rhyolite has a clayrich matrix and is fractured, with significant alterations within the fractures. The primary sealing cap rock is the Eau Claire Formation, a 100–150 m thick unit at a depth of roughly 1.69 km (Leetaru and Freiburg, 2014). The Maquoketa Shale Group and the New Albany Shale serve as secondary and tertiary seals at shallower depths of ∼820 and ∼650 m, respectively. The ISGS managed the Illinois Basin–Decatur Project (IBDP), a three-year project beginning in November 2011, during which carbon dioxide was injected at a rate of ∼1000 metric tons per day until November 2014 (Finley et al., 2011, 2013). ADM manages the Illinois Industrial CCS (ICCS) project, which will inject ∼3000 metric tons/day into a second injection well starting in the summer of 2015. The USGS began monitoring microseismicity with a 13- station seismic network at Decatur in July 2013 (Fig. 1). This network provides good detection capabilities and azimuthal (focal sphere) coverage for microseismicity with moment magnitudes (Mw) above about −0:5. Here, we report on 19 months of microseismicity monitoring at the Decatur CO2 sequestration site, which permits a detailed look at the evolution and character of injection-induced seismicity.

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