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Integrating a geographic information system, a scientific visualization system, and a precipitation model

Investigating natural, potential, and human-induced impacts on hydrologic systems commonly requires complex modeling with overlapping data requirements, plus massive amounts of one- to four-dimensional data at multiple scales and formats. Given the complexity of most hydrologic studies, the requisite software infrastructure must incorporate many components including simulation modeling and spatial analysis with a flexible, intuitive display. Integrating geographic information systems (GIS) and scientific visualization systems (SVS) provides such an infrastructure. This paper describes an integrated system consisting of an orographic precipitation model, a GIS, and an SVS. The results of this study provide a basis for improving the understanding of hydro-climatic processes in mountainous regions. An additional benefit of the integrated system, the value of which is often underestimated, is the improved ability to communicate model results, leading to a broader understanding of the model assumptions, sensitivities, and conclusions at a management level.Investigating natural, potential, and human-induced impacts on hydrologic systems commonly requires complex modeling with overlapping data requirements, plus massive amounts of one- to four-dimensional data at multiple scales and formats. Given the complexity of most hydrologic studies, the requisite software infrastructure must incorporate many components including simulation modeling and spatial analysis with a flexible, intuitive display. Integrating geographic information systems (GIS) and scientific visualization systems (SVS) provides such an infrastructure. This paper describes an integrated system consisting of an orographic precipitation model, a GIS, and an SVS. The results of this study provide a basis for improving the understanding of hydro-climatic processes in mountainous regions. An additional benefit of the integrated system, the value of which is often underestimated, is the improved ability to communicate model results, leading to a broader understanding of the model assumptions, sensitivities, and conclusions at a management level.

Water Resources Bulletin↗

Evolution and preservation potential of fluvial and transgressive deposits on the Louisiana inner shelf: Understanding depositional processes to support coastal management

The barrier-island systems of the Mississippi River Delta plain are currently undergoing some of the highest rates of shoreline retreat in North America (~20 m/year). Effective management of this coastal area requires an understanding of the processes involved in shoreline erosion and measures that can be enacted to reduce loss. The dominant stratigraphy of the delta plain is fluvial mud (silts and clays), delivered in suspension via a series of shallow-water delta lobes that prograded across the shelf throughout the Holocene. Abandonment of a delta lobe through avulsion leads to rapid land subsidence through compaction within the muddy framework. As the deltaic headland subsides below sea level, the marine environment transgresses the bays and wetlands, reworking the available sands into transgressive barrier shorelines. This natural process is further complicated by numerous factors: (1) global sea-level rise; (2) reduced sediment load within the Mississippi River; (3) diversion of the sediment load away from the barrier shorelines to the deep shelf; (4) storm-induced erosion; and (5) human alteration of the littoral process through the construction of hardened shorelines, canals, and other activities. This suite of factors has led to the deterioration of the barrier-island systems that protect interior wetlands and human infrastructure from normal wave activity and periodic storm impact. Interior wetland loss results in an increased tidal prism and inlet cross-sectional areas, and expanding ebb-tidal deltas, which removes sand from the littoral processes through diversion and sequestration. Shoreface erosion of the deltaic headlands does not provide sufficient sand to balance the loss, resulting in thinning and dislocation of the islands. Abatement measures include replenishing lost sediment with similar material, excavated from discrete sandy deposits within the muddy delta plain. These sand bodies were deposited by the same cyclical processes that formed the barrier islands, and understanding these processes is necessary to characterize their location, extent, and resource potential. In this paper we demonstrate the dominant fluvial and marine-transgressive depositional processes that occur on the inner shelf, and identify the preservation and resource potential of fluvio-deltaic deposits for coastal management in Louisiana.

Geo-Marine Letters↗

Working toward a National Coordinated Soil Moisture Monitoring Network: Vision, progress, and future directions

Soil moisture is a critical land surface variable, impacting the water, energy, and carbon cycles. While in situ soil moisture monitoring networks are still developing, there is no cohesive strategy or framework to coordinate, integrate, or disseminate these diverse data sources in a synergistic way that can improve our ability to understand climate variability at the national, state, and local levels. Thus, a national strategy is needed to guide network deployment, sustainable network operation, data integration and dissemination, and user-focused product development. The National Coordinated Soil Moisture Monitoring Network (NCSMMN) is a federally led, multi-institution effort that aims to address these needs by capitalizing on existing wide-ranging soil moisture monitoring activities, increasing the utility of observational data, and supporting their strategic application to the full range of decision-making needs. The goals of the NCSMMN are to 1) establish a national “network of networks” that effectively demonstrates data integration and operational coordination of diverse in situ networks; 2) build a community of practice around soil moisture measurement, interpretation, and application—a “network of people” that links data providers, researchers, and the public; and 3) support research and development (R&D) on techniques to merge in situ soil moisture data with remotely sensed and modeled hydrologic data to create user-friendly soil moisture maps and associated tools. The overarching mission of the NCSMMN is to provide coordinated high-quality, nationwide soil moisture information for the public good by supporting applications like drought and flood monitoring, water resource management, agricultural and forestry planning, and fire danger ratings.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society↗

Synoptic analysis and WRF-Chem model simulation of dust events in the southwestern United States

Dust transported from rangelands of the Southwestern United States (US) to mountain snowpack in the Upper Colorado River Basin during spring (March-May) forces earlier and faster snowmelt, which creates problems for water resources and agriculture. To better understand the drivers of dust events, we investigated large-scale meteorology responsible for organizing two Southwest US dust events from two different dominant geographic locations: (a) the Colorado Plateau and (b) the northern Chihuahuan Desert. High-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting coupled with Chemistry model (WRF-Chem) simulations with the Air Force Weather Agency dust emission scheme incorporating a MODIS albedo-based drag-partition was used to explore land surface-atmosphere interactions driving two dust events. We identified commonalities in their meteorological setups. The meteorological analyses revealed that Polar and Sub-tropical jet stream interaction was a common upper-level meteorological feature before each of the two dust events. When the two jet streams merged, a strong northeast-directed pressure gradient upstream and over the source areas resulted in strong near-surface winds, which lifted available dust into the atmosphere. Concurrently, a strong mid-tropospheric flow developed over the dust source areas, which transported dust to the San Juan Mountains and southern Colorado snowpack. The WRF-Chem simulations reproduced both dust events, indicating that the simulations represented the dust sources that contributed to dust-on-snow events reasonably well. The representativeness of the simulated dust emission and transport in different geographic and meteorological conditions with our use of albedo-based drag partition provides a basis for additional dust-on-snow simulations to assess the hydrologic impact in the Southwest US.

southwestern United States↗

Spatial relationships of levees and wetland systems within floodplains of the Wabash Basin, USA

Given the unique biogeochemical, physical, and hydrologic services provided by floodplain wetlands, proper management of river systems should include an understanding of how floodplain modifications influence wetland ecosystems. The construction of levees can reduce river–floodplain connectivity, yet it is unclear how levees affect wetlands within floodplains, let alone the cumulative impacts within an entire watershed. This paper explores spatial relationships between levee and floodplain wetland systems in the Wabash Basin, United States. We used a hydrogeomorphic floodplain delineation technique to map floodplain extents and identify wetlands that may be hydrologically connected to river networks. We then spatially examined the relationship between levee presence, wetland area, and other river network attributes within discrete subbasins. Our results show that cumulative wetland area is relatively constant in subbasins that contain levees, regardless of maximum stream order within the subbasin. In subbasins that do not contain levees, cumulative wetland area increases with maximum stream order. However, we found that wetland distributions around levees can be complex, and further studies on the influence of levees on wetland habitat may need to consider finer resolution spatial scales.

Wabash Basin↗

Sediment vulnerability ranking for river basins across the contiguous U.S. using integrated biophysical and social-ecological data

Nearly half of streams and rivers in the United States (U.S.) have fair to poor conditions for aquatic ecosystem health as declared by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and sediment was identified as a primary factor impairing these waterbodies. We rank sediment vulnerability using physical, ecological, and socioeconomic datasets in 163 4-digit Hydrologic Unit Codes within 18 regions across the contiguous U.S. based on the National Hydrography Dataset. We refer to sediment vulnerability as the potential for excess sediment to adversely impact social-ecological aspects of streams and rivers. Metrics were organized into six variable groups: (1) geomorphic setting, (2) modeled sediment and phosphorus, (3) hydrologic conditions, (4) anthropogenic factors and land use, (5) socioeconomic considerations, and (6) measures of ecosystem sensitivity. Correlations and principal component analysis were used to reduce and select metrics that explained the highest variability across basins. Results from the regional analysis identify basins with higher sediment vulnerability in each region, whereas national results identify hotspots of highly ranked basins in the Midwest and the central U.S. with a concentration of moderately to highly ranked basins in the south-central and southwestern U.S. Indicators of socioeconomic and ecological vulnerability integrated with physical drivers of sediment production help identify important gaps in sediment monitoring and research.

contiguous United States↗

Facing tomorrow’s challenges—U.S. Geological Survey science in the decade 2007–2017

Executive Summary In order for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to respond to evolving national and global priorities, it must periodically reflect on, and optimize, its strategic directions. This report is the first comprehensive science strategy since the early 1990s to examine critically major USGS science goals and priorities. The development of this science strategy comes at a time of global trends and rapidly evolving societal needs that pose important natural-science challenges. The emergence of a global economy affects the demand for all resources. The last decade has witnessed the emergence of a new model for managing Federal lands—ecosystem-based management. The U.S. Climate Change Science Program predicts that the next few decades will see rapid changes in the Nation’s and the Earth’s environment. Finally, the natural environment continues to pose risks to society in the form of volcanoes, earthquakes, wildland fires, floods, droughts, invasive species, variable and changing climate, and natural and anthropogenic toxins, as well as animal-borne diseases that affect humans. The use of, and competition for, natural resources on the global scale, and natural threats to those resources, has the potential to impact the Nation’s ability to sustain its economy, national security, quality of life, and natural environment. Responding to these national priorities and global trends requires a science strategy that not only builds on existing USGS strengths and partnerships but also demands the innovation made possible by integrating the full breadth and depth of USGS capabilities. The USGS chooses to go forward in the science directions proposed here because the societal issues addressed by these science directions represent major challenges for the Nation’s future and for the stewards of Federal lands, both onshore and offshore. The six science directions proposed in this science strategy are summarized in the following paragraphs. The ecosystems strategy is listed first because it has a dual nature. It is itself an essential direction for the USGS to pursue to meet a pressing national and global need, but ecosystem-based approaches are also an underpinning of the other five directions, which all require ecosystem perspectives and tools for their execution. The remaining strategic directions are listed in alphabetical order.

Circular↗

Ecohydrological controls on soil moisture and hydraulic conductivity within a pinyon‐juniper woodland

The impact of pinyon‐juniper woodland encroachment on rangeland ecosystems is often associated with a reduction of streamflow and recharge and an increase in soil erosion. The objective of this study is to investigate vegetational control on seasonal soil hydrologic properties along a 15‐m transect in pinyon‐juniper woodland with biocrust. We demonstrate that the juniper tree controls soil water content (SWC) patterns directly under the canopy via interception, and beyond the canopy via shading in a preferred orientation, opposite to the prevailing wind direction. The juniper also controls the SWC and unsaturated hydraulic conductivity measured close to water saturation ( K ( h )) under the canopy by the creation of soil water repellency due to needle drop. We use this information to refine the hydrologic functional unit (HFU) concept into three interacting hydrologic units: canopy patches, intercanopy patches, and a transitional unit formed by intercanopy patches in the rain shadow of the juniper tree. Spatial autoregressive state‐space models show the close relationship between K ( h ) close to soil water saturation and SWC at medium and low levels, integrating a number of influences on hydraulic conductivity.

Water Resources Research↗

Streamflow depletion caused by groundwater pumping: Fundamental research priorities for management-relevant science

Reductions in streamflow caused by groundwater pumping, known as “streamflow depletion,” link the hydrologic process of stream-aquifer interactions to human modifications of the water cycle. Isolating the impacts of groundwater pumping on streamflow is challenging because other climate and human activities concurrently impact streamflow, making it difficult to separate individual drivers of hydrologic change. In addition, there can be lags between when pumping occurs and when streamflow is affected. However, accurate quantification of streamflow depletion is critical to integrated groundwater and surface water management decision making. Here, we highlight research priorities to help advance fundamental hydrologic science and better serve the decision-making process. Key priorities include (a) linking streamflow depletion to decision-relevant outcomes such as ecosystem function and water users to align with partner needs; (b) enhancing partner trust and applicability of streamflow depletion methods through benchmarking and coupled model development; and (c) improving links between streamflow depletion quantification and decision-making processes. Catalyzing research efforts around the common goal of enhancing our streamflow depletion decision-support capabilities will require disciplinary advances within the water science community and a commitment to transdisciplinary collaboration with diverse water-connected disciplines, professions, governments, organizations, and communities.

Water Resource Research↗

Impact on the Columbia River of an outburst of Spirit Lake

A one-dimensional sediment-transport computer model was used to study the effects of an outburst of Spirit Lake on the Columbia River. According to the model, flood sediment discharge to the Columbia from the Cowlitz would form a blockage to a height of 44 feet above the current streambed of the Columbia River, corresponding to a new streambed elevation of -3 feet, that would impound the waters of the Columbia River. For an average flow of 233,000 cubic feet in that river, water surface elevations would continue to increase for 16 days after the blockage had been formed. The river elevation at the Trojan nuclear power plant, 5 miles upstream of the Cowlitz River, would rise to 32 feet, compared to a critical elevation of 45 feet, above which the plant would be flooded. For comparison, the Columbia River at average flow without the blockage has an elevation at this location of 6 feet. Correspondingly high water surface elevations would occur along the river to Bonneville Dam , with that at Portland, Oregon, for example, rising also to 32 feet, compared to 10 feet without the blockage. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Effects of surface mining on streamflow, suspended-sediment, and water quality in the Stony Fork drainage basin, Fayette County, Pennsylvania

A study of the Stony Fork basin in southern Fayette County, Pennsylvania, from 1977 through 1980 determined the impacts of surface coal mining on surface-water quality. Stony Fork was sampled at six sites, during which time the area of surface mines increased from 0.5 to 5.5 percent of the study area. Streamflow, suspended-sediment, and water quality data were collected at gaging stations upstream and downstream of mining. The total runoff between the upstream and downstream stations differed by one percent; this small difference could not be attributed to the effects of mining. The suspended-sediment yield increased during storms due to erosion from the mining sites. The suspended-sediment yield doubled at the downstream site following mining. Specific conductance was highly variable during storm runoff but generally varied inversely with flow and increased slightly during the study period. The pH ranged between 4.8 and 7.9 with values below 6.0 usually occurring during storm runoff. Concentrations of dissolved zinc and sulfate increased between the upstream and downstream sampling sites. Laboratory analysis of a precipitation sample indicates that acid precipitation may be partly responsible for pH depressions during storm runoff periods. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Fens as whole-ecosystem gauges of groundwater recharge under climate change

Currently, little is known about the impact of climate change on groundwater recharge in the Sierra Nevada and southern Cascade Range of California or other mountainous regions of the world. The purpose of this study was to determine whether small alpine peat lands called fens can be used as whole-ecosystem gauges of groundwater recharge through time. Fens are sustained by groundwater discharge and are highly sensitive to changes in groundwater flow due to hydrologic disturbance including climate change. Seven fens in the Sierra Nevada and southern Cascade Range were studied over a 50-80 year period using historic aerial photography. In each aerial photograph, fen areas were identified as open lawn and partially treed areas that exhibited (1) dark brownish-green coloring or various shades of gray and black in black and white imagery and (2) mottling of colors and clustering of vegetation, which signified a distinct moss canopy with overlying clumped sedge vegetation. In addition to the aerial photography study, a climate analysis for the study sites was carried out using both measured data (U.S. Department of Agriculture Natural Resources Conservation Service SNOwpack TELemetry system) and modeled data (a downscaled version of the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model) for the period from 1951 to 2010. Over the study period, the five fens in the Sierra Nevada were found to be decreasing between 10% and 16% in delineated area. The climate analysis revealed significant increases through time in annual mean minimum temperature (T min ) between 1951-1980 and 1981-2010. In addition, April 1 snow water equivalent and snowpack longevity also decreased between 1951-1980 and 1981-2010. For the fens in the Cascade Range, there were no discernible changes in delineated area. At these sites, increases in T min occurred only within the past 20-25 years and decreases in snowpack longevity were more subtle. A conceptual model is presented, which illustrates that basic differences in hydrogeology of the Sierra Nevada vs. the Cascade Range may control the threshold at which changes in delineated fen areas are discernible. Overall, the results from this study show that fens in the Sierra Nevada have strong potential as whole ecosystem gauges for determining long-term changes in groundwater recharge under climate change. Due to either more moderate climate change and/or hydrogeological differences, fens in the southern Cascade Range currently do not appear to have the same utility. A greater sample size of fens in the Sierra Nevada is needed to confirm the general applicability of this method. In addition, future work needs to focus on integrating fen monitoring with geochemical and/or isotopic process-level studies in order to quantify changes in groundwater recharge identified using this new approach.

Journal of Hydrology↗

Effects of sea ice decline and summer land use on polar bear home range size in the Beaufort Sea

Animals responding to habitat loss and fragmentation may increase their home ranges to offset declines in localized resources or they may decrease their home ranges and switch to alternative resources. In many regions of the Arctic, polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) exhibit some of the largest home ranges of any quadrupedal mammal. Polar bears are presently experiencing a rapid decline in Arctic sea ice extent and a change in sea ice composition. For the Southern Beaufort Sea subpopulation of polar bears, this has resulted in a divergent movement pattern where most of the subpopulation remains on the sea ice in the summer melt season while the remainder move to land. We evaluated the effects of summer land use and maternal denning on the annual and seasonal utilization distribution size (i.e., home range) of adult female polar bears in the Southern Beaufort Sea subpopulation over 30 yr (1986–2016) during a period of rapid sea ice decline. For bears that remained on the summer sea ice, model-derived mean annual utilization distributions were 64% larger in 1999–2016 ( x ̄ "> 𝑥 ̄ = 176,000 km 2 ) relative to 1986–1998 ( x ̄ "> 𝑥 ̄ = 107,000 km 2 ). This increase was primarily driven by increases in summer utilization distributions that encompassed increased amounts of open water and decreased amounts of preferred sea ice. The mean centroid of summer utilization distributions for bears that remained on the sea ice was 193 km further north-northeast in 1999–2016. In contrast, bears that summered on land during 1999–2016 exhibited 88% smaller mean annual utilization distribution sizes ( x ̄ "> 𝑥 ̄ = 22,000 km 2 ) relative to bears that remained on the summer sea ice during the same period. Our findings highlight the impacts of sea ice declines on polar bear space use and the increasing importance of land as an alternative summer refuge.

Alaska↗

Thinning, tree-growth, and resistance to multi-year drought in a mixed-conifer forest of northern California

Drought is an important stressor in forest ecosystems that can influence tree vigor and survival. In the U.S., forest managers use two primary management techniques to promote resistance and resilience to drought: prescribed fire and mechanical thinning. Generally applied to reduce fuels and fire hazard, treatments may also reduce competition for resources that may improve tree-growth and reduce mortality during drought. A recent severe and prolonged drought in California provided a natural experiment to investigate tree-growth responses to fuel treatments and climatic stress. We assessed tree-growth from 299 ponderosa pine ( Pinus ponderosa ) and Douglas-fir ( Pseudotsuga menziesii ) in treated and untreated stands during severe drought from 2012 to 2015 in the mixed-conifer forests of Whiskeytown National Recreation Area (WNRA) in northern California. The treatment implemented at WNRA removed 34% of live basal area through mechanical thinning with a subsequent pile burning of residual fuels. Tree-growth was positively associated with crown ratio and negatively associated with competition and a 1-year lag of climate water deficit, an index of drought. Douglas-fir generally had higher annual growth than ponderosa pine, although factors affecting growth were the same for both species. Drought resistance, expressed as the ratio between mean growth during drought and mean growth pre-drought, was higher in treated stands compared to untreated stands during both years of severe drought (2014 and 2015) for ponderosa pine but only one year (2014) for Douglas-fir. Thinning improved drought resistance, but tree size, competition and species influenced this response. On-going thinning treatments focused on fuels and fire hazard reduction are likely to be effective at promoting growth and greater drought resistance in dry mixed-conifer forests. Given the likelihood of future droughts, land managers may choose to implement similar treatments to reduce potential impacts.

Forest Ecology and Management↗

Functional wetland loss drives emerging risks to waterbird migration networks

Migratory waterbirds (i.e., shorebirds, wading birds, and waterfowl) rely on a diffuse continental network of wetland habitats to support annual life cycle needs. Emerging threats of climate and land-use change raise new concerns over the sustainability of these habitat networks as water scarcity triggers cascading ecological effects impacting wetland habitat availability. Here we use important waterbird regions in Oregon and California, United States, as a model system to examine patterns of landscape change impacting wetland habitat networks in western North America. Wetland hydrology and flooded agricultural habitats were monitored monthly from 1988 to 2020 using satellite imagery to quantify the timing and duration of inundation—a key delimiter of habitat niche values associated with waterbird use. Trends were binned by management practice and wetland hydroperiods (semi-permanent, seasonal, and temporary) to identify differences in their climate and land-use change sensitivity. Wetland results were assessed using 33 waterbird species to detect non-linear effects of network change across a diversity of life cycle and habitat needs. Pervasive loss of semi-permanent wetlands was an indicator of systemic functional decline. Shortened hydroperiods caused by excessive drying transitioned semi-permanent wetlands to seasonal and temporary hydrologies—a process that in part counterbalanced concurrent seasonal and temporary wetland losses. Expansion of seasonal and temporary wetlands associated with closed-basin lakes offset wetland declines on other public and private lands, including wildlife refuges. Diving ducks, black terns, and grebes exhibited the most significant risk of habitat decline due to semi-permanent wetland loss that overlapped important migration, breeding, molting, and wintering periods. Shorebirds and dabbling ducks were beneficiaries of stable agricultural practices and top-down processes of functional wetland declines that operated collectively to maintain habitat needs. Outcomes from this work provide a novel perspective of wetland ecosystem change affecting waterbirds and their migration networks. Understanding the complexity of these relationships will become increasingly important as water scarcity continues to restructure the timing and availability of wetland resources.

California, Nevada, Oregon↗

Linking fire, food webs, and fish in stream ecosystems

As wildfire regimes shift, resource managers are concerned about potential threats to aquatic ecosystems and the species they support, especially fishes. However, predicting fish responses can be challenging because wildfires affect aquatic ecosystems via multiple pathways. Application of whole-ecosystem approaches, such as food web modeling, can act as heuristic tools that offer valuable insights that account for these different mechanisms. We applied a dynamic food web simulation model that mechanistically linked stream trophic dynamics to the myriad effects that wildfires can have on aquatic and riparian ecosystems at a local stream reach-scale. We simulated how wildfires of different severity may influence short- (months to years) and long-term (years to decades) periphyton, aquatic invertebrate, and fish biomass dynamics in forested headwater streams of the western Pacific Northwest (USA). In many cases, wildfire increased modeled periphyton, invertebrate, and fish biomass over both short- and long-time periods. However, modeled responses varied extensively in their direction (that is, positive or negative), magnitude, and duration depending on fire severity, time since fire, and trophic level. The shapes of these response trajectories were especially sensitive to predicted wildfire effects on water temperature, canopy cover, riparian shading, and instream turbidity. Model simulations suggest a single fire could result in a wide range of aquatic ecosystem responses, especially in watersheds with mixed burn severity. Our analysis highlights the utility of whole-ecosystem approaches, like food web modeling, as heuristic tools for improving our understanding of the mechanisms linking fire, food webs, and fish and for identifying contexts where fires could have deleterious impacts on fishes.

Oregon, Washington↗

Sedimentation survey of Lago Caonillas, Puerto Rico, February 2000

Lago Caonillas, a reservoir owned by the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority and located in the central part of Puerto Rico, is one of the two reservoirs (the other being Lago Dos Bocas) proposed to supply water for the Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority project called the Superaqueduct. The reservoir was impounded in 1948 and originally provided about 55 .66 million cubic meters of water for hydroelectric power generation. Sediment derived from the reservoir basin has been transported and deposited in the reservoir bottom, substantially decreasing the water storage capacity over time. Successive bathymetric surveys indicated that in 1990 the storage capacity was 49.25 million cubic meters, decreasing to 48.80 million cubic meters in 1995 and to 42.27 million cubic meters in 2000. This represents an overall storage loss of about 11.5 percent by 1990, 12.3 percent by 1995 and 24.1 percent by 2000. The long-term sedimentation rate of the reservoir was about 153,000 cubic meters per year in 1990, remaining almost constant at about 146,000 cubic meters per year in 1995, but nearly doubling to 258,000 cubic meters per year in 2000. The two-fold increase in sedimentation rate, and consequently, the reservoir storage capacity loss, can be attributed to Hurricane Hortense in September 1996 and Hurricane Georges in September 1998. Twenty-four percent of the original storage capacity of Lago Caonillas has been lost to sediment accumulation. About 49 percent of the reservoir sediment was deposited in the last five years, demonstrating the impact of these major storms on the reservoir. Based on the ratio of storage capacity to inflow rate, the estimated trapping efficiency of Lago Caonillas is about 93 percent for 2000. The sediment yield of the Lago Caonillas net sediment-contributing drainage area (total drainage area minus the reservoir surface area) of 218.74 square kilometers, is about 1 ,266 megagrams per square kilometer per year. This represents an increase of about 69 percent in the material transport and deposition process of the Lago Caonillas basin between 1990 and 2000. The life expectancy of Lago Caonillas was more than 300 years in 1995; however, at the storm-accelerated sedimentation rate, the life expectancy has decreased to about 164 years. This implies that the reservoir could be filled with sediments by the year 2164 if major hurricanes continue to pass through Puerto Rico regularly (every 2 to 4 years).

Puerto Rico↗

Summary of studies supporting cumulative effects analysis of upper Yellowstone River channel modifications

During the last several decades, portions of the upper Yellowstone River have been modified for flood control and erosion prevention. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is responsible for administration of a permit program for evaluating construction activities affecting rivers, streams, and wetlands. The Corps regulates activities under the authority of Section 10 of the Rivers and Harbors Act and Section 404 of the Clean Water Act. Since assumption of jurisdiction in the mid-1970’s, the Corps has processed a total of 156 permit actions for the upper Yellowstone River. Over two-thirds of the permit actions occurred during or after two consecutive large floods during 1996 and 1997. In response to concern regarding the potential environmental and ecological consequences of channel modification, the Corps, in conjunction with State and local government agencies, initiated a series of scientific studies to better understand the effects of channel modification in the upper Yellowstone River (Figure 1). These included preparation of wetland and riparian inventory maps (Bon, 2001); hydraulic modeling and flood-plain delineation; watershed land-cover assessment (Pick and Potter, 2003); historic bottomland use analysis (Brelsford and others, 2003); analysis of channel modification effects on fish habitat (Bowen and others, 2003); comparison of juvenile salmonid use of modified and unmodified habitats (Zale and Rider, 2003); analysis of riparian vegetation and flood-plain turnover (Merigliano and Polzin, 2003); study of the relations between riparian habitat and bird communities (Hansen and others, 2003); analyses of geomorphology and historical channel changes (Dalby and Robinson, 2003); socioeconomic assessment (BBC Research and Consulting, 2002); and sediment transport investigations and modeling (Holnbeck, 2003). This report is a summary of results from the individual scientific studies as they bear on future programmatic cumulative effects analyses of channel modification of the upper Yellowstone River. We do not attempt a formal, cumulative impact assessment in the sense of evaluating alternatives or future scenarios. The first section presents major findings of the resource studies in terms of temporal comparisons, spatial comparisons, and causal relations. In this section, we present a series of conceptual models or flow diagrams of the major causal pathways of cumulative impacts from channel modification. These represent major pathways of potential impact based on knowledge from other rivers, concerns expressed about the upper Yellowstone, and results from the scientific studies. These diagrams serve to focus interpretation of study results as either supporting or not supporting the importance and magnitude of particular causal relations and to identify key linking variables appearing in multiple causal pathways. These key variables that connect channel modification actions to multiple, valued environmental attributes can serve as the foundation for both projecting and monitoring future responses of the system. A section on analytical realities outlines some of the limitations of projecting cumulative impacts from channel modification of the upper Yellowstone River on meaningful spatial and temporal scales and some of the difficulties of interpreting results from studies conducted shortly after two extreme floods and substantial increases in channel modification. A section on classification describes the two primary geomorphic classification systems of the upper Yellowstone River used in the various individual resource studies. Each of these systems has been valuable in supporting field sampling and expressing results concerning patterns of variation. Their integration or revision into a classification system to achieve some new purpose, such as a regulatory program or monitoring system, will depend on a crisp articulation of riverine management or regulatory objectives. A section on key variables identifies those that are central to the causal pathways connecting channel modification to impacts and provides a rationale for key variables as an alternative to other tools such as Proper Functioning Condition (Barrett and others, 1993), Index of Biotic Integrity (Karr, 1981), or the Synoptic Approach (Liebowitz and others, 1992). This section also explains relations among key variable to Hydrogeomorphic (HGM) assessment procedures (Hauer and Smith, 1998; Hauer and others, 2001) and outlines how these 2 variables might be monitored to track cumulative impacts. Examples of how selected key variables can be quantified using Geographic Information System data sets developed from the resource studies are presented for one reach. The largest portion of the document is an Appendix that summarizes each of the individual scientific studies in terms of scope and methods, findings, principal variables, and metrics used in the study or suggested by the study results, and important needs for further study.

Montana↗