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At least 1,081 records · Page 60Linked to original sources
USGS2007

Spatial variability in water-balance model performance in the conterminous United States

A monthly water-balance (WB) model was tested in 44 river basins from diverse physiographic and climatic regions across the conterminous United States (U.S.). The WB model includes the concepts of climatic water supply and climatic water demand, seasonality in climatic water supply and demand, and soil-moisture storage. Exhaustive search techniques were employed to determine the optimal set of precipitation and temperature stations, and the optimal set of WB model parameters to use for each basin. It was found that the WB model worked best for basins with: (1) a mean elevation less than 450 meters or greater than 2000 meters, and/or (2) monthly runoff that is greater than 5 millimeters (mm) more than 80 percent of the time. In a separate analysis, a multiple linear regression (MLR) was computed using the adjusted R-square values obtained by comparing measured and estimated monthly runoff of the original 44 river basins as the dependent variable, and combinations of various independent variables [streamflow gauge latitude, longitude, and elevation; basin area, the long-term mean and standard deviation of annual precipitation; temperature and runoff; and low-flow statistics (i.e., the percentage of months with monthly runoff that is less than 5 mm)]. Results from the MLR study showed that the reliability of a WB model for application in a specific region can be estimated from mean basin elevation and the percentage of months with gauged runoff less than 5 mm. The MLR equations were subsequently used to estimate adjusted R-square values for 1,646 gauging stations across the conterminous U.S. Results of this study indicate that WB models can be used reliably to estimate monthly runoff in the eastern U.S., mountainous areas of the western U.S., and the Pacific Northwest. Applications of monthly WB models in the central U.S. can lead to uncertain estimates of runoff.

Conterminous United States↗
USGS2011

Long-term post-fire effects on spatial ecology and reproductive output of female Agassiz’s desert tortoises ( Gopherus agassizii ) at a wind energy facility near Palm Springs, California, USA

We studied the long-term response of a cohort of eight female Agassiz’s desert tortoises ( Gopherus agassizii ) during the first 15 years following a large fire at a wind energy generation facility near Palm Springs, California, USA. The fire burned a significant portion of the study site in 1995. Tortoise activity areas were mapped using minimum convex polygons for a proximate post-fire interval from 1997 to 2000, and a long-term post-fire interval from 2009 to 2010. In addition, we measured the annual reproductive output of eggs each year and monitored the body condition of tortoises over time. One adult female tortoise was killed by the fire and five tortoises bore exposure scars that were not fatal. Despite predictions that tortoises would make the short-distance movements from burned to nearby unburned habitats, most activity areas and their centroids remained in burned areas for the duration of the study. The percentage of activity area burned did not differ significantly between the two monitoring periods. Annual reproductive output and measures of body condition remained statistically similar throughout the monitoring period. Despite changes in plant composition, conditions at this site appeared to be suitable for survival of tortoises following a major fire. High productivity at the site may have buffered tortoises from the adverse impacts of fire if they were not killed outright. Tortoise populations at less productive desert sites may not have adequate resources to sustain normal activity areas, reproductive output, and body conditions following fire.

California↗
USGS2005

Distribution patterns of mercury in Lakes and Rivers of northeastern North America

We assembled 831 data points for total mercury (Hg t ) and 277 overlapping points for methyl mercury (CH 3 Hg + ) in surface waters from Massachussetts, USA to the Island of Newfoundland, Canada from State, Provincial, and Federal government databases. These geographically indexed values were used to determine: (a) if large-scale spatial distribution patterns existed and (b) whether there were significant relationships between the two main forms of aquatic Hg as well as with total organic carbon (TOC), a well know complexer of metals. We analyzed the catchments where samples were collected using a Geographical Information System (GIS) approach, calculating catchment sizes, mean slope, and mean wetness index. Our results show two main spatial distribution patterns. We detected loci of high Hg t values near urbanized regions of Boston MA and Portland ME. However, except for one unexplained exception, the highest Hg t and CH 3 Hg + concentrations were located in regions far from obvious point sources. These correlated to topographically flat (and thus wet) areas that we relate to wetland abundances. We show that aquatic Hg t and CH 3 Hg + concentrations are generally well correlated with TOC and with each other. Over the region, CH 3 Hg + concentrations are typically approximately 15% of Hg t . There is an exception in the Boston region where CH 3 Hg + is low compared to the high Hg t values. This is probably due to the proximity of point sources of inorganic Hg and a lack of wetlands. We also attempted to predict Hg concentrations in water with statistical models using catchment features as variables. We were only able to produce statistically significant predictive models in some parts of regions due to the lack of suitable digital information, and because data ranges in some regions were too narrow for meaningful regression analyses.

Maine, Massachusetts, New Brunswick, New Hampshire↗
USGS2018

Wetlands inform how climate extremes influence surface water expansion and contraction

Effective monitoring and prediction of flood and drought events requires an improved understanding of how and why surface water expansion and contraction in response to climate varies across space. This paper sought to (1) quantify how interannual patterns of surface water expansion and contraction vary spatially across the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) and adjacent Northern Prairie (NP) in the United States, and (2) explore how landscape characteristics influence the relationship between climate inputs and surface water dynamics. Due to differences in glacial history, the PPR and NP show distinct patterns in regards to drainage development and wetland density, together providing a diversity of conditions to examine surface water dynamics. We used Landsat imagery to characterize variability in surface water extent across 11 Landsat path/rows representing the PPR and NP (images spanned 1985–2015). The PPR not only experienced a 2.6-fold greater surface water extent under median conditions relative to the NP, but also showed a 3.4-fold greater change in surface water extent between drought and deluge conditions. The relationship between surface water extent and accumulated water availability (precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration) was quantified per watershed and statistically related to variables representing hydrology-related landscape characteristics (e.g., infiltration capacity, surface storage capacity, stream density). To investigate the influence stream connectivity has on the rate at which surface water leaves a given location, we modeled stream-connected and stream-disconnected surface water separately. Stream-connected surface water showed a greater expansion with wetter climatic conditions in landscapes with greater total wetland area, but lower total wetland density. Disconnected surface water showed a greater expansion with wetter climatic conditions in landscapes with higher wetland density, lower infiltration and less anthropogenic drainage. From these findings, we can expect that shifts in precipitation and evaporative demand will have uneven effects on surface water quantity. Accurate predictions regarding the effect of climate change on surface water quantity will require consideration of hydrology-related landscape characteristics including wetland storage and arrangement.

Prairie Pothole Regino↗
USGS2003

Preliminary preview for a geographic and monitoring program project; a review of point source-nonpoint source effluent trading/offset systems in watersheds

Watershed-based trading and offset systems are being developed to improve policy-maker?s and regulator?s ability to assess nonpoint source impacts in watersheds and to evaluate the efficacy of using market-incentive programs for preserving environmental quality. An overview of the history of successful and failed trading programs throughout the United States suggests that certain political, economic, and scientific conditions within a temporal and spatial setting help meet water quality standards. The current lack of spontaneous trading among dischargers does not mean that a marketable permit trading system is an inherently inefficient regulatory approach. Rather, its infrequent use is the result of institutional and informational barriers. Improving and refining the earth science information and technologies may help determine whether trading is a suitable policy for improving water quality. However, it is debatable whether or not environmental information is the limiting factor. This paper reviews additional factors affecting the potential for instituting a trading policy. The motivation for investigating and reviewing the history of offsets and trading was inspired by a project in the preliminary stages being developed by U.S. Geological Survey Western Geographic Science Center and the Environmental Protection Agency Region IX. An offset feasibility study will be an integrated, map-based approach that incorporates environmental, economic, and statistical information to investigate the potential for using offsets to meet mercury Total Maximum Daily Loads in the Sacramento River watershed. A regional water-quality offset program is being studied that may help known point sources reduce mercury loading more cost effectively by the remediation of abandoned mines or other diffuse sources as opposed to more costly treatment at their own sites. An efficient offset program requires both a scientific basis and methods to translate that science into a regulatory decision framework.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2017

Characterization of water quality and suspended sediment during cold-season flows, warm-season flows, and stormflows in the Fountain and Monument Creek watersheds, Colorado, 2007–2015

From 2007 through 2015, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Colorado Springs City Engineering, conducted a study in the Fountain and Monument Creek watersheds, Colorado, to characterize surface-water quality and suspended-sediment conditions for three different streamflow regimes with an emphasis on characterizing water quality during storm runoff. Data collected during this study were used to evaluate the effects of stormflows and wastewater-treatment effluent discharge on Fountain and Monument Creeks in the Colorado Springs, Colorado, area. Water-quality samples were collected at 2 sites on Upper Fountain Creek, 2 sites on Monument Creek, 3 sites on Lower Fountain Creek, and 13 tributary sites during 3 flow regimes: cold-season flow (November–April), warm-season flow (May–October), and stormflow from 2007 through 2015. During 2015, additional samples were collected and analyzed for Escherichia coli ( E. coli ) during dry weather conditions at 41 sites, located in E. coli impaired stream reaches, to help identify source areas and scope of the impairment. Concentrations of E. coli , total arsenic, and dissolved copper, selenium, and zinc in surface-water samples were compared to Colorado in-stream standards. Stormflow concentrations of E. coli frequently exceeded the recreational use standard of 126 colonies per 100 milliliters at main-stem and tributary sites by more than an order of magnitude. Even though median E. coli concentrations in warm-season flow samples were lower than median concentrations in storm-flow samples, the water quality standard for E. coli was still exceeded at most main-stem sites and many tributary sites during warm-season flows. Six samples (three warm-season flow and three stormflow samples) collected from Upper Fountain Creek, upstream from the confluence of Monument Creek, and two stormflow samples collected from Lower Fountain Creek, downstream from the confluence with Monument Creek, exceeded the acute water-quality standard for total arsenic of 50 micrograms per liter. All concentrations of dissolved copper, selenium, and zinc measured in samples were below the water-quality standard. Concentrations of dissolved nitrate plus nitrite generally increased from upstream to downstream during all flow periods. The largest downstream increase in dissolved nitrate plus nitrite concentration was measured between sites 07103970 and 07104905 on Monument Creek. All but one tributary that drain into Monument Creek between the two sites had higher median nitrate plus nitrite concentrations than the nearest upstream site on Monument Creek, site 07103970 (MoCr_Woodmen). Increases in the concentration of dissolved nitrate plus nitrite were also evident below wastewater treatment plants located on Fountain Creek. Most stormflow concentrations of dissolved trace elements were smaller than concentrations from cold-season flow or warm-season samples. However, median concentrations of total arsenic, lead, manganese, nickel, and zinc generally were much larger during periods of stormflow than during cold-season flow or warm-season fl. Median concentrations of total arsenic, total copper, total lead, dissolved and total manganese, total nickel, dissolved and total selenium, and dissolved and total zinc concentrations increased from 1.5 to 28.5 times from site 07103700 (FoCr_Manitou) to 07103707 (FoCr_8th) during cold-season and warm-season flows, indicating a large source of trace elements between these two sites. Both of these sites are located on Fountain Creek, upstream from the confluence with Monument Creek. Median suspended-sediment concentrations and median suspended-sediment loads increased in the downstream direction during all streamflow regimes between Monument Creek sites 07103970 (MoCr_Woodmen) and 07104905 (MoCr_Bijou); however, statistically significant increase (p-value less than 0.05) were only present during warm-season flow and stormflow. Significant increases in median suspended sediment concentrations were measured during cold-season flow and warm-season flow between Upper Fountain Creek site 07103707 (FoCr_8th) and Lower Fountain Creek site 07105500 (FoCr_Nevada) because of inflows from Monument Creek with higher suspended-sediment concentrations. Median suspended-sediment concentrations between sites 07104905 (MoCr_Bijou) and 07105500 (FoCr_Nevada) increased significantly during warm-season flow but showed no significant differences during cold-season flow and stormflow. Significant decreases in median suspended-sediment concentrations were measured between sites 07105500 (FoCr_Nevada) and 07105530 (FoCr_Janitell) during all flow regimes. Suspended-sediment concentrations, discharges, and yields associated with stormflow were significantly larger than those associated with warm-season flow. Although large spatial variations in suspended-sediment yields occurred during warm-season flows, the suspended-sediment yield associated with stormflow were as much as 1,000 times larger than the suspended-sediment yields that occurred during warm-season flow.

Colorado↗
USGS2009

Estimating Locations of Perennial Streams in Idaho Using a Generalized Least-Squares Regression Model of 7-Day, 2-Year Low Flows

Many State and Federal agencies use information regarding the locations of streams having intermittent or perennial flow when making management and regulatory decisions. For example, the application of some Idaho water quality standards depends on whether streams are intermittent. Idaho Administrative Code defines an intermittent stream as one having a 7-day, 2-year low flow (7Q2) less than 0.1 ft3/s. However, there is a general recognition that the cartographic representation of perennial/intermittent status of streams on U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) topographic maps is not as accurate or consistent as desirable from one map to another, which makes broad management and regulatory assessments difficult and inconsistent. To help resolve this problem, the USGS has developed a methodology for predicting the locations of perennial streams based on regional generalized least-squares (GLS) regression equations for Idaho streams for the 7Q2 low-flow statistic. Using these regression equations, the 7Q2 streamflow may be estimated for naturally flowing streams in most areas in Idaho. The use of these equations in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) technique known as weighted flow accumulation allows for an automated and continuous estimation of 7Q2 streamflow at all points along stream reaches. The USGS has developed a GIS-based map of the locations of streams in Idaho with perennial flow based on a 7Q2 of 0.1 ft3/s and a transition zone of plus or minus 1 standard error. Idaho State cooperators plan to use this information to make regulatory and water-quality management decisions. Originally, 7Q2 equations were developed for eight regions of similar hydrologic characteristics in the study area, using long-term data from 234 streamflow-gaging stations. Equations in five of the regions were revised based on spatial patterns observed in the initial perennial streams map and unrealistic behavior of the equations in extrapolation. The standard errors of prediction for the final equations ranged from a minimum of +75.0 to -42.9 percent in the central part of the study area to a maximum of +277 to -73.5 percent in the southern part of the study area. The equations are applicable only to unregulated, naturally-flowing streams and may produce unreliable results outside the range of explanatory variables used for equation development. Extrapolation outside the range of available data was necessary, however, to predict perennial flow initiation points and transition zones along stream reaches. The map of perennial streams was evaluated by comparing predicted stream classifications with four independent datasets, including field observations by other government agencies. Overall, 81 percent of the comparison data points agreed with the USGS perennial streams model. Regions with the highest number of disagreements had a high percentage of mountainous and forested area with potential mountain front recharge zones, and regions with the highest agreements had a high percentage of low gradient, low elevation area. As a whole, the USGS model predicted a higher number of perennial streams than predictions made with the independent datasets. Some disagreements were due to poor site location coordinates, timing of the comparison site visits during unusually wet or dry years, discrepancies in classification criteria, and variable ground water contributions to flow in some areas. The Idaho Department of Environmental Quality Beneficial Use Reconnaissance Program (BURP) dataset is considered the most representative dataset for comparison because it covered a range of climate conditions and the number of sites visited were consistent from year to year during the study period. Eighty-five percent of BURP comparison data points agreed with the USGS perennial streams model. Although site-specific flow data may be needed to correctly classify streams in some areas, this information rarely is available and is not always practical to o

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2020

Comparing methods to estimate the proportion of turbine-induced bird and bat mortality in the search area under a road and pad search protocol

Estimating bird and bat mortality at wind facilities typically involves searching for carcasses on the ground near turbines. Some fraction of carcasses inevitably lie outside the search plots, and accurate mortality estimation requires accounting for those carcasses using models to extrapolate from searched to unsearched areas. Such models should account for variation in carcass density with distance, and ideally also for variation with direction (anisotropy). We compare five methods of accounting for carcasses that land outside the searched area (ratio, weighted distribution, non-parametric, and two generalized linear models ( glm )) by simulating spatial arrival patterns and the detection process to mimic observations which result from surveying only, or primarily, roads and pads (R&P) and applying the five methods. Simulations vary R&P configurations, spatial carcass distributions (isotropic and anisotropic), and per turbine fatality rates. Our results suggest that the ratio method is less accurate with higher variation relative to the other four methods which all perform similarly under isotropy. All methods were biased under anisotropy; however, including direction covariates in the glm method substantially reduced bias. In addition to comparing methods of accounting for unsearched areas, we suggest a semiparametric bootstrap to produce confidence-based bounds for the proportion of carcasses that land in the searched area.

Environmental and Ecological Statistics↗
USGS2021

Distribution, abundance and spatial variability of microplastic pollution on the surface of Lake Superior

In 2014, 94 paired neuston net samples (0.5 mm mesh) were collected from the surface waters of Lake Superior. These samples comprise the most comprehensive surface water survey for microplastics of any of the Great Lakes to date, and the first to employ double net trawls. Microplastic abundance estimates showed wide variability, ranging between 4000 to more than 100,000 particles/km 2 with most locations having abundances between 20,000 to 50,000 particles/km 2 . The average abundance in Lake Superior was ~30,000 particles/km 2 which was similar to previous estimates within this Laurentian Great Lake and suggests a total count of more than 2.4 billion (1.7 to 3.3 billion, 95% confidence interval) particles across the lake’s surface. Distributions of plastic particles, characterized by size fraction and type, differed between nearshore and offshore samples, and between samples collected in the eastern versus western portion of the lake. Most of the particles found were fibers (67%), and most (62%) were contained in the smallest classified size fraction (0.50–1 mm). The most common type of polymer found was polyethylene (51%), followed by polypropylene (19%). This is consistent with global plastics production and results obtained from other studies. No statistically significant difference was detected between the paired net samples, indicating that single net sampling should produce a representative estimate of microplastic particle abundance and distribution within a body of water.

Lake Superior↗
USGS1998

Analysis of the influence of spatial pattern in habitat selection studies

Design and analysis of wildlife habitat selection studies typically do not assess the effect of spatial pattern on the habitat selection process. Effects of landscape scale pattern on habitat selection cannot be accomplished without replicate study areas, because pattern is a single, albeit multifaceted, attribute of an area. For a single area, however, the influence of pattern-related characteristics, such as shape and edge shared with adjacent patches, can be estimated by using GLIM (McCullough and Neider 1983) procedures to model patch-specific frequency counts of animal use as a function of these parameters. This approach is evaluated and illustrated with simulated breeding-bird counts in a South Carolina study area for which a GIS land cover classification is available. A related technique for evaluating whether movement from patch to patch is selective is developed and illustrated for designs that involve collection of trajectory data from monitored individuals. These designs and analyses are feasible given current GIS and GPS technology. Statistical inferences from habitat selection studies should be interpreted within the context of a range of scales at which animals differentiate between patch attributes.

Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environme↗
USGS2021

Introduced mangroves along the coast of Moloka‘i, Hawai‘i may represent novel habitats for megafaunal communities

Mangrove forests are prevalent along tropical/subtropical coastlines and provide valuable ecosystem services including coastline stabilization, storm impact reduction, and enhanced coastal productivity. However, mangroves were absent from the Hawaiian Islands and their introduction to Moloka‘i in 1902 has provided an opportunity to examine their unique influence on coastal landscapes. Previous studies indicate an inability of native detritivores to utilize tannin-rich substrates, yielding poor cycling of mangrove-derived detritus in Hawaiian tidal zones. We hypothesize that in addition to altering detrital inputs, introduced mangroves facilitate the persistence of introduced species in the Hawaiian coastal zone by providing novel habitat for juvenile megafauna. To determine whether mangrove-dominated tidal zones harbor megafaunal assemblages distinct from open sandflats, we sampled in two mangrove (M1 and M2) and two adjacent sandflat (S1 and S2) sites along the southern coast of Moloka‘i, where the most mature mangrove forests occur in Hawai‘i. There were no statistical differences in total abundances between M1 and M2 or S1 and S2; therefore, results from individual deployments were pooled across the sites in order to conduct between-habitat (mangrove vs. sandflat) comparisons. Our mangrove study site had significantly higher abundances of megafauna, including several shrimp and crab species, compared to the sandflat site. The community composition within the mangrove site differed from the sandflat site, including higher abundances of non-native mangrove crabs ( Scylla serrata ), as well as native fish Bathygobius cocosensis and crustaceans ( Thalamita crenata , Palaemon pacificus , P. debilis ) than in the sandflat site, indicating that the mangrove site may provide niches for both invasive and native species. In addition, mean body length for several similar species was smaller in the mangrove site than in the sandflat site, suggesting that these mangroves may be providing a habitat for juvenile species. While our study was spatially limited to two mangrove and two adjacent sandflat sites, our results suggest that introduced mangroves in Moloka‘i may support small-bodied, native, and non-native megafauna, influencing coastal Hawaiian trophic dynamics. Our case study provides a baseline for megafaunal fish and invertebrate communities present prior to non-native mangrove removal as well as for monitoring potential community changes following expansion of mangrove habitats due to climate change.

Hawaii↗
USGS2025

Spatially explicit power analyses to inform occupancy‐based multi‐species wildlife monitoring programmes

1. Current and accurate information on wildlife populations is integral to successful biodiversity management and conservation globally. Nevertheless, many monitoring programs fail in their attempts to accurately monitor populations of interest due to interlinked issues including insufficient sample sizes, inappropriate duration, lack of reproducibility, and lack of clearly stated objectives. These common pitfalls could be avoided through the elicitation of explicit monitoring objectives and the a priori use of simulations to inform minimum sampling design requirements to meet said objectives. 2. Here, we provide a blueprint for using spatially explicit power analyses to inform the design and implementation of multi-species monitoring programs on landscape-scales. As a demonstration, we used spatially explicit simulations to devise a suitable sampling regime to meet clearly specified monitoring objectives in New York State: to use annual occupancy-based monitoring to be able to detect 25% and 50% changes in abundance of populations over five- and ten- year periods for all species of management interest in New York State, USA. We focused our simulation efforts on three challenging focal species (black bear, Ursus americanus, bobcat, Lynx rufus, and American marten, Martes americana) that differ notably in their morphology, life histories, space use, detection probability, habitat suitability, and population sizes/trajectories, and thus provide extremes in the challenges presented when it comes to sampling appropriately to detect changes in abundance. 3. Our simulations demonstrate variable context dependent trade-offs in sampling designs (i.e. number of sites [J] and number of sampling occasions [K]), and identify necessary minimum detection probabilities that must be attained to achieve statistical power to detect changes of varying magnitudes in populations of varying sizes in the three focal species. The simulations also highlight that monitoring population increases is likely beyond the reach of occupancy-based monitoring programs for wide-ranging or locally abundant species. 4. Synthesis and applications : We combine the results from the single-species simulations to produce a multi-species sampling design that meets the specified objectives for all three species. While the case study is centered on developing a multi-species sampling regime for New York State, it provides a reproducible step-by-step framework using established methods for wildlife managers and other practitioners to inform their own context- and objective- specific multi-species occupancy-based monitoring programs.

New York↗
USGS2012

Dissolved organic carbon and chromophoric dissolved organic matter properties of rivers in the USA

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration and chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) parameters were measured over a range of discharge in 30 U.S. rivers, covering a diverse assortment of fluvial ecosystems in terms of watershed size and landscape drained. Relationships between CDOM absorption at a range of wavelengths (a 254 , a 350 , a 440 ) and DOC in the 30 watersheds were found to correlate strongly and positively for the majority of U.S. rivers. However, four rivers (Colorado, Colombia, Rio Grande and St. Lawrence) exhibited statistically weak relationships between CDOM absorption and DOC. These four rivers are atypical, as they either drain from the Great Lakes or experience significant impoundment of water within their watersheds, and they exhibited values for dissolved organic matter (DOM) parameters indicative of autochthonous or anthropogenic sources or photochemically degraded allochthonous DOM and thus a decoupling between CDOM and DOC. CDOM quality parameters in the 30 rivers were found to be strongly correlated to DOM compositional metrics derived via XAD fractionation, highlighting the potential for examining DOM biochemical quality from CDOM measurements. This study establishes the ability to derive DOC concentration from CDOM absorption for the majority of U.S. rivers, describes characteristics of riverine systems where such an approach is not valid, and emphasizes the possibility of examining DOM composition and thus biogeochemical function via CDOM parameters. Therefore, the usefulness of CDOM measurements, both laboratory-based analyses and in situ instrumentation, for improving spatial and temporal resolution of DOC fluxes and DOM dynamics in future studies is considerable in a range of biogeochemical studies.

Journal of Geophysical Research G: Biogeosciences↗
USGS2011

Measuring the impacts of natural amenities and the US-Mexico Border, on housing values in the Santa Cruz Watershed, using spatially-weighted hedonic modeling

Assessing the sustainability of International policy or urban development requires consideration of the impacts of these decisions on Ecosystem Services, or the values that humans receive from the ecosystem, including market-land price, environmental, and human well-being values. Hedonic modeling helps to identify the market land price, considering the price is determined by multiple factors affecting it. In U.S. portions of the bi-national Santa Cruz Watershed (SCW), situated at the Arizona-Sonora International border, natural amenities like the riparian corridor and green space have been documented as positive amenities that boost local real estate. The goal of this research is to isolate the effects of the US-Mexico border and known environmental or natural amenities or disamenities on housing prices in the binational watershed, while controlling for housing stock characteristics and social-environmental vulnerability. In the ultimate analysis, the mean house values within census blocks will be used to represent local housing stock. A human well-being index that measures people’s socio-environmental vulnerability for the entire SCW is in publication that is based on access to infrastructure, number of bedrooms per house and other social data from the binational census and local colonias database will also be compared. The hedonic pricing method will be applied to statistically estimate a function that relates property values to the variables described. This presentation will provide a synopsis of the quality of life and hedonics literature review used to develop this research agenda. Variables relevant for local environmental management, having significant effects on property values, will be discussed. The final results obtained from this study can be used determine the benefits of preserving or developing land binationally and will be uploaded to the Santa Cruz Watershed Ecosystem Portfolio Model (SCWEPM), an online Ecosystem Services tool, being created to promote sustainable development in the Borderlands.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2024

Use of Doppler velocity radars to monitor and predict debris and flood wave velocities and travel times in post-wildfire basins

The magnitude and timing of extreme events such as debris and floodflows (collectively referred to as floodflows) in post-wildfire basins are difficult to measure and are even more difficult to predict. To address this challenge, a sensor ensemble consisting of noncontact, ground-based (near-field), Doppler velocity (velocity) and pulsed (stage or gage height) radars, rain gages, and a redundant radio communication network was leveraged to monitor flood wave velocities, to validate travel times, and to compliment observations from NEXRAD weather radar. The sensor ensemble (DEbris and Floodflow Early warNing System, DEFENS) was deployed in Waldo Canyon, Pike National Forest, Colorado, USA, which was burned entirely (100 percent burned) by the Waldo Canyon fire during the summer of 2012 ( MTBS, 2020 ). Surface velocity, stage, and precipitation time series collected during the DEFENS deployment on 10 August 2015 were used to monitor and predict flood wave velocities and travel times as a function of stream discharge (discharge; streamflow). The 10 August 2015 event exhibited spatial and temporal variations in rainfall intensity and duration that resulted in a discharge equal to 5.01 cubic meters per second (m 3 /s). Discharge was estimated post-event using a slope-conveyance indirect discharge method and was verified using velocity radars and the probability concept algorithm. Mean flood wave velocities – represented by the kinematic celerity ( c k = 2.619 m e t e r s p e r s e c o n d , m / s ± 0.556 p e r c e n t "> 𝑐 𝑘 = 2.619 𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑠 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑, m/s ± 0.556 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡) and dynamic celerity ( c d = 3.533 m / s ± 0.181 p e r c e n t a n d t h e i r u n c e r t a i n t i e s "> 𝑐 𝑑 = 3.533 m/s ± 0.181 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡) and their uncertainties were computed. L-moments were computed to establish probability density functions (PDFs) and associated statistics for each of the at-a-section hydraulic parameters to serve as a workflow for implementing alert networks in hydrologically similar basins that lack data. Measured flood wave velocities and travel times agreed well with predicted values. Absolute percent differences between predicted and measured flood wave velocities ranged from 1.6 percent to 49 percent and varied with water slope, hydraulic radius, and depth. The kinematic celerity was a better predictor for steep slopes and wide flood plains associated with the Upper Waldo and Middle Waldo radar streamgages; whereas, the dynamic celerity was a better surrogate for shallow slopes and incised channels such as the Lower Waldo radar streamgage. The method demonstrates the potential extensibility of a post-wildfire warning system by (1) leveraging multiple systems (i.e., weather radar, near-field velocity and stage radars, and rain gages) for accurate and timely warnings of debris and floodflows, (2) establishing an order of operations to site, install, and operate near-field radars and conventional rain gages to record floodflows, forecast travel times, and document geomorphic change in this basin and hydrologically similar basins that lack data, and (3) communicating data operationally with the Colorado Department of Transportation engineering staff, National Weather Service forecasters, and emergency managers.

Colorado↗
USGS2012

Land change variability and human-environment dynamics in the United States Great Plains

Land use and land cover changes have complex linkages to climate variability and change, biophysical resources, and socioeconomic driving forces. To assess these land change dynamics and their causes in the Great Plains, we compare and contrast contemporary changes across 16 ecoregions using Landsat satellite data and statistical analysis. Large-area change analysis of agricultural regions is often hampered by change detection error and the tendency for land conversions to occur at the local-scale. To facilitate a regional-scale analysis, a statistical sampling design of randomly selected 10 km × 10 km blocks is used to efficiently identify the types and rates of land conversions for four time intervals between 1973 and 2000, stratified by relatively homogenous ecoregions. Nearly 8% of the overall Great Plains region underwent land-use and land-cover change during the study period, with a substantial amount of ecoregion variability that ranged from less than 2% to greater than 13%. Agricultural land cover declined by more than 2% overall, with variability contingent on the differential characteristics of regional human–environment systems. A large part of the Great Plains is in relatively stable land cover. However, other land systems with significant biophysical and climate limitations for agriculture have high rates of land change when pushed by economic, policy, technology, or climate forcing factors. The results indicate the regionally based potential for land cover to persist or fluctuate as land uses are adapted to spatially and temporally variable forcing factors.

Colorado;Iowa;Kansas;Minnesota;Missouri;Montana;Ne↗
USGS2020

Lessons learned implementing an operational continuous United States national land change monitoring capability: The Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) approach

Growing demands for temporally specific information on land surface change are fueling a new generation of maps and statistics that can contribute to understanding geographic and temporal patterns of change across large regions, provide input into a wide range of environmental modeling studies, clarify the drivers of change, and provide more timely information for land managers. To meet these needs, the U.S. Geological Survey has implemented a capability to monitor land surface change called the Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) initiative. This paper describes the methodological foundations and lessons learned during development and testing of the LCMAP approach. Testing and evaluation of a suite of 10 annual land cover and land surface change data sets over six diverse study areas across the United States revealed good agreement with other published maps (overall agreement ranged from 73% to 87%) as well as several challenges that needed to be addressed to meet the goals of robust, repeatable, and geographically consistent monitoring results from the Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC) algorithm. First, the high spatial and temporal variability of observational frequency led to differences in the number of changes identified, so CCDC was modified such that change detection is dependent on observational frequency. Second, the CCDC classification methodology was modified to improve its ability to characterize gradual land surface changes. Third, modifications were made to the classification element of CCDC to improve the representativeness of training data, which necessitated replacing the random forest algorithm with a boosted decision tree. Following these modifications, assessment of prototype Version 1 LCMAP results showed improvements in overall agreement (ranging from 85% to 90%).

Remote Sensing of Environment↗
USGS2022

Post-fire seed dispersal of a wind-dispersed shrub declined with distance to seed source, yet had high levels of unexplained variation

Plant-population recovery across large disturbance areas is often seed-limited. An understanding of seed dispersal patterns is fundamental for determining natural-regeneration potential. However, forecasting seed dispersal rates across heterogeneous landscapes remains a challenge. Our objectives were to determine (i) the landscape patterning of post-disturbance seed dispersal, and underlying sources of variation and the scale at which they operate, and (ii) how the natural seed dispersal patterns relate to a seed augmentation strategy. Vertical seed trapping experiments were replicated across 2 years and five burned and/or managed landscapes in sagebrush steppe. Multi-scale sampling and hierarchical Bayesian models were used to determine the scale of spatial variation in seed dispersal. We then integrated an empirical and mechanistic dispersal kernel for wind-dispersed species to project rates of seed dispersal and compared natural seed arrival to typical post-fire aerial seeding rates. Seeds were captured across the range of tested dispersal distances, up to a maximum distance of 26 m from seed-source plants, although dispersal to the furthest traps was variable. Seed dispersal was better explained by transect heterogeneity than by patch or site heterogeneity (transects were nested within patch within site). The number of seeds captured varied from a modelled mean of ~13 m −2 adjacent to patches of seed-producing plants, to nearly none at 10 m from patches, standardized over a 49-day period. Maximum seed dispersal distances on average were estimated to be 16 m according to a novel modelling approach using a ‘latent’ variable for dispersal distance based on seed trapping heights. Surprisingly, statistical representation of wind did not improve model fit and seed rain was not related to the large variation in total available seed of adjacent patches. The models predicted severe seed limitations were likely on typical burned areas, especially compared to the mean 95–250 seeds per m 2 that previous literature suggested were required to generate sagebrush recovery. More broadly, our Bayesian data fusion approach could be applied to other cases that require quantitative estimates of long-distance seed dispersal across heterogeneous landscapes.

Idaho↗