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At least 1,081 records · Page 60Linked to original sources

New insights on faulting and intrusion processes during the June 2007, East Rift Zone eruption of Kilauea volcano, Hawai'i

The East Rift Zone (ERZ) of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai'i, represents one of the most volcanically active regions in the world. The 2007 Father's Day (FD) dike intrusion, eruption, and accompanying slow-slip event (SSE) has been previously modeled using geodetic data to constrain the geometry of the intrusion and the timing and magnitude of the SSE. Here, we perform inversions of three interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) datasets and a new intensity offset tracking dataset to assess the effect of integrating intensity cross-correlation offsets into inversion problems and explore additional potential models for the intrusion geometry of the FD event based on this additional data. The overall lowest misfit single Okada model for all datasets opens 2.3 m, strikes 73 degrees while dipping sub-vertically at 83 degrees, and extends approximately 2.9 km to the ENE and 2.4 km downdip. The differences are minor between complex en-echelon distributed Okada and decollement model of (Montgomery-Brown et al., 2010) or 3D-MBEM breaching models including multiple surface breaches and free-slipping decollement movement. Finally, we examine the static Coulomb stress changes for the proposed decollement fault created by our preferred model and a representative model of deep rift opening and find that deep rift zones dilation, not shallow ERZ intrusions, are likely modulating slip on the decollement.

Hawaii↗

Characteristics, distribution, origin, and significance of opaline silica observed by the Spirit rover in Gusev crater, Mars

The presence of outcrops and soil (regolith) rich in opaline silica (∼65–92 wt % SiO 2 ) in association with volcanic materials adjacent to the “Home Plate” feature in Gusev crater is evidence for hydrothermal conditions. The Spirit rover has supplied a diverse set of observations that are used here to better understand the formation of silica and the activity, abundance, and fate of water in the first hydrothermal system to be explored in situ on Mars. We apply spectral, chemical, morphological, textural, and stratigraphic observations to assess whether the silica was produced by acid sulfate leaching of precursor rocks, by precipitation from silica‐rich solutions, or by some combination. The apparent lack of S enrichment and the relatively low oxidation state of the Home Plate silica‐rich materials appear inconsistent with the originally proposed Hawaiian analog for fumarolic acid sulfate leaching. The stratiform distribution of the silica‐rich outcrops and their porous and brecciated microtextures are consistent with sinter produced by silica precipitation. There is no evidence for crystalline quartz phases among the silica occurrences, an indication of the lack of diagenetic maturation following the production of the amorphous opaline phase.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

Petroleum and mineral resources of Antarctica

No known petroleum or mineral resources occur in Antarctica. The data on these subjects have been collected, mainly since the IGY (International Geophysical Year), 1957-58, as a part of other research carried out by geologists and geophysicists from a number of countries. Specific resource-related studies have not been made. Wright and Williams (1974) summarized what was known of Antarctic mineral resources a decade ago. The U.S. Geological Survey has been actively pursuing various investigations in Antarctica since 194 7. In the course of this work and that of our colleagues elsewhere in the United States and in other countries, much information relevant to petroleum and mineral resources has been obtained. Since 1976, modern state-of-the-art multichannel seismic reflection and aeromagnetic surveys by several countries over the continental margin of Antarctica have indicated thick sedimentary basins. However, no offshore drilling beneath the continental shelf has taken place since the DSDP (Deep Sea Drilling Project) holes in the Ross Sea in 1973. Geologic field investigations begun at the turn of the twentieth century have been intensified in the past two decades; most rock outcrops have been visited and samples collected. Technology to exploit resources, particularly in the Arctic, has been developing at a rapid rate, and much of it could be applied to Antarctica. As a result of the petroleum price increases of the past decade, the attention of a number of countries has turned to Antarctica, but under the policy of "voluntary restraint" adopted by the Antarctic Treaty nations, no active petroleum or mineral exploration is taking place. The Antarctic treaty countries are in the process of negotiating an Antarctic mineral resources regime that is anticipated to be completed within the next several years. Therefore it seemed timely to us to readdress the question of petroleum and mineral resources. These reports review and summarize the available information. The first report summarizes the information relevant to petroleum resources. Although uneconomic at present, petroleum is generally considered more likely to be exploited (if supergiant fields were ever found) in the next few decades than hard minerals. The second report reviews the reported occurrences of minerals in Antarctica and discusses their significance. The final report discusses the Dufek layered mafic intrusion, second only to the Bushveld Complex in size in the world; the Dufek intrusion might be considered as a potential target for mineral exploration.

Circular↗

The users, uses, and value of Landsat and other moderate-resolution satellite imagery in the United States-Executive report

Moderate-resolution imagery (MRI), such as that provided by the Landsat satellites, provides unique spatial information for use by many people both within and outside of the United States (U.S.). However, exactly who these users are, how they use the imagery, and the value and benefits derived from the information are, to a large extent, unknown. To explore these issues, social scientists at the USGS Fort Collins Science Center conducted a study of U.S.-based MRI users from 2008 through 2010 in two parts: 1) a user identification and 2) a user survey. The objectives for this study were to: 1) identify and classify U.S.-based users of this imagery; 2) better understand how and why MRI, and specifically Landsat, is being used; and 3) qualitatively and quantitatively measure the value and societal benefits of MRI (focusing on Landsat specifically). The results of the survey revealed that respondents from multiple sectors use Landsat imagery in many different ways, as demonstrated by the breadth of project locations and scales, as well as application areas. The value of Landsat imagery to these users was demonstrated by the high importance placed on the imagery, the numerous benefits received from projects using Landsat imagery, the negative impacts if Landsat imagery was no longer available, and the substantial willingness to pay for replacement imagery in the event of a data gap. The survey collected information from users who are both part of and apart from the known user community. The diversity of the sample delivered results that provide a baseline of knowledge about the users, uses, and value of Landsat imagery. While the results supply a wealth of information on their own, they can also be built upon through further research to generate a more complete picture of the population of Landsat users as a whole.

Open-File Report↗

Simulation of groundwater flow and brine discharge to the Dolores River in the Paradox Valley, Montrose County, Colorado

Salinity, or total dissolved solids (TDS), of the Colorado River affects agricultural, municipal, and industrial water users and is an important concern in the Western United States. In the Paradox Valley of southwestern Colorado, natural discharge of sodium-chloride brine to the Dolores River from the underlying core of a salt-valley anticline accounts for about 6 percent of the salinity load to the Colorado River. Formation of the Paradox Valley began during the Miocene, and subsequent erosion exposed the Pennsylvania Paradox Formation in the core of the anticline where a cap rock, collapse features, breccia, and sodium-chloride saturated brine developed at the top of the exposed salt diapir. The discharge of brine to the Dolores River is affected by these dissolution features, along with seasonal hydrologic conditions and density-dependent flow between older dense brine and the younger fresh groundwater in the overlying alluvial aquifer. To reduce TDS concentrations in the Dolores River through the Paradox Valley, the Bureau of Reclamation has pumped brine from a series of shallow wells adjacent to the river since July 1996. The pumped brine is collected and piped to a deep disposal well where it is injected into the Mississippian Leadville Limestone at a depth of about 4,570-meters below land surface. The pumping and injection operation is collectively known as the Paradox Valley Unit (PVU), and by 2015, the PVU had substantially reduced TDS concentrations in the Dolores River by about 70 percent. Since 2019, injection-pressure limits and related seismic activity have constrained deep-well injection and thus brine pumping at the PVU. In cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, the U.S. Geological Survey developed a MODFLOW-6 three-dimensional, variable-density groundwater flow and TDS transport model of the Paradox Valley to evaluate the effects of PVU pumping operations on brine discharge to the Dolores River and to guide additional research. The finite-difference model grid consists of 76 rows and 48 columns oriented from northwest to southeast in alignment with valley topography and groundwater-flow directions in the near-surface freshwater alluvial aquifer. A 7-layer hydrogeologic framework was developed from existing datasets to represent the alluvial aquifer, cap rock, collapse breccia, and groundwater flow and TDS transport from the underlying Paradox Formation salt to the Dolores River. The model represents a 33-year transient calibration period from 1987 through 2020 that includes pre-PVU conditions from 1987 through June 1996 and post-PVU conditions from July 1996 through 2020. A 1,000-year simulation of groundwater flow and coupled TDS transport computed the initial conditions for the subsequent 33-year transient simulation. Observations of precipitation, streamflow, evaporation, agricultural land use, and PVU brine pumping rates were used to specify appropriate boundary conditions to the model representing time-varying recharge, tributary streamflow, groundwater underflow, evapotranspiration (ET), and PVU pumping. Values for average monthly streamflow and TDS concentration at the upstream streamgage, the Dolores River at Bedrock (USGS streamgage 09169500), were specified as model input where the Dolores River enters Paradox Valley. Observed pumping from the PVU, water levels and TDS concentrations in groundwater, and streamflow and estimated TDS concentrations at the downstream streamgage, the Dolores River near Bedrock (USGS streamgage 09171100), were calibration targets that constrained the manual calibration of model parameters representing aquifer hydraulic conductivity, storage, streambed conductance, recharge, and (ET). Two primary model-calibration targets were the match between observed and simulated TDS mass flux from PVU pumping wells and the match between estimated and simulated TDS mass flux to the Dolores River. The simulated TDS mass withdrawn by pumping wells is calculated by the model as the product of the assigned pumping rate and simulated groundwater TDS concentrations. Because actual pumping rates were assigned as simulated values, the total simulated PVU pumping for the 33-year calibration is within 0.5 percent of the observed values. However, simulated concentrations and thus mass flux of TDS withdrawn by the PVU pumping wells were consistently about 26 percent less than observed values for all the simulated time periods (33-year simulation, pre-PVU, and post-PVU). The representation of brine inflow was explored through additional modeling to evaluate the effect of the simulated brine source on groundwater TDS concentrations. Results indicated that a saturated-salt constant-flux brine source best replicated the magnitude and transient pattern observed for TDS mass flux from PVU pumping wells. The simulated TDS mass flux to the Dolores River is compared to estimates based on observed streamflow and specific conductance (SC) data for the downstream streamgage. The calibrated model provided a close fit of simulated to measured streamflow at the downstream streamgage, and the calibrated model fit to estimated TDS concentrations at the downstream streamgage was reasonable. The greatest differences between simulated and estimated values occurred during drought periods from June 2000 to March 2003, May 2012 to June 2013, and October 2013 to October 2014, when simulated TDS concentrations in the river were greater than estimated concentrations. In general, simulated TDS mass flux to the river for the pre-PVU period is in good agreement with estimated values (2-percent difference), but the model overestimated TDS mass flux to the river by about 41 percent during the post-PVU period. The model uncertainty with respect to TDS mass flux to the river indicates other processes or model parameters not well represented by the model are affecting the system, especially during drought. During model calibration, the most sensitive parameters were identified as vertical hydraulic conductivity of the alluvial aquifer, conductance of the Dolores River streambed, ET extinction depth and rate, and recharge rate. Five 5-year scenarios of conditions for 2021–25 were simulated to assist evaluation of alternative strategies to manage the discharge of brine into the Dolores River. The first scenario simulates no PVU pumping and serves as a base case for comparison to the other scenarios. Two scenarios simulate the effects of varying withdrawal timing at an annual rate about one-third less than during 2010 through 2018. During high-flow spring snowmelt runoff periods when brine discharge is naturally minimized, PVU pumping does not substantially affect salinity in the Dolores River, and comparison of these two scenarios indicates that scheduling brine withdrawals during times of low river stage is nearly as effective at reducing TDS mass flux to the river as pumping brine year-round. Cessation of pumping during periods of high river stage may be advantageous for system maintenance, brine injection, and seismic-risk reduction. The fourth scenario tested the effect of reducing irrigation-return flow on brine discharge and predicted a slight reduction of TDS mass flux to the Dolores River, but not as great a reduction as that of using the PVU to remove brine. The fifth scenario simulated 5 years of drought conditions without PVU pumping and indicates brine discharge during drought about 15 percent greater than during average hydrologic conditions. Results from scenario 5 are consistent with the calibrated model results and indicate that aquifer properties and ET processes and parameters may be affecting simulation results during drought. The Paradox Valley groundwater model provides a reasonable overall match to observed conditions in the Dolores River. The model is useful for evaluating relative differences between brine management scenarios to inform PVU operational decisions and to identify gaps in data and process understanding. Representation of the brine source, hydraulic-conductivity parameters, and recharge and ET processes were identified as potential areas for additional field and modeling research. Additional research in the Paradox Valley might include field-data collection that provides additional information on the hydrogeologic framework, groundwater levels, groundwater TDS concentrations, stream characteristics, and aquifer properties. Additional modeling efforts could benefit from applying advanced tools for model development, calibration, and visualization including parameter-estimation and sensitivity analysis. Statistical evaluation of known model uncertainties such as hydraulic conductivity, streambed conductance, representations of the brine source, recharge, and ET could improve the match between simulated and estimated TDS mass flux from PVU pumping wells and to the Dolores River further informing model predictions and system understanding for the Paradox Valley.

Colorado↗

Citizen science data collection for integrated wildlife population analyses

Citizen science, or community science, has emerged as a cost-efficient method to collect data for wildlife monitoring. To inform research and conservation, citizen science sampling designs should collect data that match the robust statistical analyses needed to quantify species and population patterns. Further increasing the contributions of citizen science, integrating citizen science data with other datasets and datatypes can improve population estimates and expand the spatiotemporal extent of inference. We demonstrate these points with a citizen science program called iSeeMammals developed in New York state in 2017 to supplement costly systematic spatial capture-recapture sampling by collecting opportunistic data from one-off observations, hikes, and camera traps. iSeeMammals has initially focused on the growing population of American black bear ( Ursus americanus ), with integrated analysis of iSeeMammals camera trap data with systematic data for a region with a growing bear population. The triumvirate of increased spatial and temporal coverage by at least twofold compared to systematic sampling, an 83% reduction in annual sampling costs, and improved density estimates when integrated with systematic data highlight the benefits of collecting presence-absence data in citizen science programs for estimating population patterns. Additional opportunities will come from applying presence-only data, which are oftentimes more prevalent than presence-absence data, to integrated models. Patterns in data submission and filtering also emphasize the importance of iteratively evaluating patterns in engagement, usability, and accessibility, especially focusing on younger adult and teenage demographics, to improve data quality and quantity. We explore how the development and use of integrated models may be paired with citizen science project design in order to facilitate repeated use of datasets in standalone and integrated analyses for supporting wildlife monitoring and informing conservation.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗

Climatic impact of glacial cycle polar motion: Coupled oscillations of ice sheet mass and rotation pole position

Precessional motion of Earth's rotation axis relative to its orbit is a well-known source of long-period climatic variation. It is less well appreciated that growth and decay of polar ice sheets perturb the symmetry of the global mass distribution enough that the geographic location of the rotation axis will change by at least 15 km and possibly as much as 100 km during a single glacial cycle. This motion of the pole will change the seasonal and latitudinal pattern of temperatures. We present calculations, based on a diurnal average energy balance, which compare the summer and winter temperature anomalies due to a 1° decrease in obliquity with those due to a 1° motion of the rotation pole toward Hudson Bay. Both effects result in peak temperature perturbations of about 1° Celsius. The obliquity change primarily influences the amplitude of the seasonal cycle, while the polar motion primarily changes the annual mean temperatures. The polar motion induced temperature anomaly is such that it will act as a powerful negative feedback on ice sheet growth. We also explore the evolution of the coupled system composed of ice sheet mass and pole position. Oscillatory solutions result from the conflicting constraints of rotational and thermal stability. A positive mass anomaly on an otherwise featureless Earth is in rotational equilibrium only at the poles or the equator. The two polar equilibria are rotationally unstable, and the equatorial equilibrium, though rotationally stable, is thermally unstable. We find that with a plausible choice for the strength of coupling between the thermal and rotational systems, relatively modest external forcing can produce significant response at periods of 10 4 –10 6 years, but it strongly attenuates polar motion at longer periods. We suggest that these coupled oscillations may contribute to the observed dominance of 100 kyr glacial cycles since the mid-Pleistocene and will tend to stabilize geographic patterns that are suitable to glaciations.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

How restructuring river connectivity changes freshwater fish biodiversity and biogeography

Interbasin water transfer projects, in which river connectivity is restructured via man-made canals, are an increasingly popular solution to address the spatial mismatch between supply and demand of fresh water. However, the ecological consequences of such restructuring remain largely unexplored, and there are no general theoretical guidelines from which to derive these expectations. River systems provide excellent opportunities to explore how network connectivity shapes habitat occupancy, community dynamics, and biogeographic patterns. We apply a neutral model (which assumes competitive equivalence among species within a stochastic framework) to an empirically derived river network to explore how proposed changes in network connectivity may impact patterns of freshwater fish biodiversity. Without predicting the responses of individual extant species, we find the addition of canals connecting hydrologically isolated river basins facilitates the spread of common species and increases average local species richness without changing the total species richness of the system. These impacts are sensitive to the parameters controlling the spatial scale of fish dispersal, with increased dispersal affording more opportunities for biotic restructuring at the community and landscape scales. Connections between isolated basins have a much larger effect on local species richness than those connecting reaches within a river basin, even when those within-basin reaches are far apart. As a result, interbasin canal projects have the potential for long-term impacts to continental-scale riverine communities.

Water Resources Research↗

Mean flow and turbulence fields over two-dimensional bed forms

Detailed laser-Doppler velocity and Reynolds stress measurements over fixed two-dimensional bed forms are used to investigate the coupling between the mean flow and turbulence and to examine effects that play a role in producing the bed form instability and finite amplitude stability. The coupling between the mean flow and the turbulence is explored in both a spatially averaged sense, by determining the structure of spatially averaged velocity and Reynolds stress profiles, and a local sense, through computation of eddy viscosities and length scales. The measurements show that there is significant interaction between the internal boundary layer and the overlying wake turbulence produced by separation at the bed form crest. The interaction produces relatively low correlation coefficients in the internal boundary layer, which suggests that using local bottom stress to predict bed load flux may not only be erroneous, it may also disregard the essence of the bed form instability mechanism. The measurements also indicate that topographically induced acceleration over the bed form stoss slope has a more significant effect in damping the turbulence over bed forms than was previously supposed, which is hypothesized to play a role in the stabilization of fully developed bed forms.

Water Resources Research↗

Preliminary evaluation of the landsat-4 thematic mapper data for mineral exploration

Landsat-4 Thematic Mapper (TM) data recorded over an arid terrain were analyzed to determine the applicability of using of TM data for identifying and mapping hydrothermally altered, potentially mineralized rocks. Clays, micas, and other minerals bearing the OH anion in specific crystal lattice positions have absorption bands in the 2.2-??m region (TM channel 7, TM7) and commonly lack features in the 1.6-??m region (TM5). Channel ratios TM5/TM7, TM5/TM4, and TM3/TM1 were combined into a color-ratio-composite (CRC) image and used to distinguish hydrothermally altered rocks, unaltered rocks, and vegetation. These distinctions are made possible by using the TM5 and TM7, channels which are not available in the Landsat multispectral scanner (MSS). Digital masking was used to eliminate ambiguities due to water and shadows. However, some ambiguities in identification resulted between altered volcanic rocks and unaltered sedimentary deposits that contained clays, carbonates, and gypsum, and between altered volcanic rocks and volcanic tuffs diagenetically altered to zeolites. However, compared to MSS data, TM data should greatly improve the ability to map hydrothermally altered rocks in arid terrains. ?? 1985.

Advances in Space Research↗

Ecological forecasting—21st century science for 21st century management

Natural resource managers are coping with rapid changes in both environmental conditions and ecosystems. Enabled by recent advances in data collection and assimilation, short-term ecological forecasting may be a powerful tool to help resource managers anticipate impending near-term changes in ecosystem conditions or dynamics. Managers may use the information in forecasts to minimize the adverse effects of ecological stressors and optimize the effectiveness of management actions. To explore the potential for ecological forecasting to enhance natural resource management, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) convened a workshop titled "Building Capacity for Applied Short-Term Ecological Forecasting" on May 29—31, 2019, with participants from several Federal agencies, including the Bureau of Land Management, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the National Park Service, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration as well as all mission areas within the USGS. Participants broadly agreed that short-term ecological forecasting—on the order of days to years into the future—has tremendous potential to improve the quality and timeliness of information available to guide resource management decisions. Participants considered how ecological forecasting could directly affect their agency missions and specified numerous critical tools for addressing natural resource management concerns in the 21st century that could be enhanced by ecological forecasting. Given this breadth of possible applications for forecast products, participants developed a repeatable framework for evaluating potential value of a forecast product for enhancing resource management. Applying that process to a large list of forecast ideas that were developed in a brainstorming session, participants identified a small set of promising forecast products that illustrate the value of ecological forecasting for informing resource management. Workshop outcomes also include insights about important likely obstacles and next steps. In particular, reliable production and delivery of operational ecological forecasts will require a sustained commitment by research agencies, in partnership with resource management agencies, to maintain and improve forecasting tools and capabilities.

Open-File Report↗

Incorporating climate data into emergency planning and exercises: A primer for emergency management practioners and data developers

Climate change has and will continue to sharpen climate-related risks to communities and natural resources in California and elsewhere, as the probabilities of more extreme weather, floods, and fires continue to increase. This poses a problem of novel situations for emergency management. Progress has been made in terms of formally incorporating climate projections, data, and research on expected changes in climate-driven hazards into long-term hazard mitigation and climate adaptation strategies at both state and national levels. However, there are fewer examples of how climate change considerations have, or could be, incorporated into shorter-term emergency preparedness and response strategies. This is an important gap to fill, as climate resilience depends not only on mitigation and prevention measures, but also on the ability of agencies to coordinate and effectively minimize impacts when prevention measures fall short. The goal of this primer is to provide guidance on how to incorporate the best available information on climate variability and change into emergency management planning, with a focus on the development and use of extreme weather event scenarios for use in exercises. The first section is aimed toward a broad audience, including emergency management practitioners who use extreme weather event scenarios. It provides an overview of available data and tools that can inform scenario design as well as techniques for scenario design based on the hazard of interest, the audience and application, and the technical skills and resources required to develop, summarize, and/or visualize the data. This section concludes with an overview of approaches and lessons learned related to extreme event response planning and exercise design. Overall, this section highlights the advantages of developing quantitative scenarios based on spatial data, which allows visualizations and interactive data explorations that can provide greater specificity in discussions related to preparedness and response strategies. It further highlights the advantages of developing a core expert working group to guide planning, holding pre-exercise workshops to engage diverse communities outside of the emergency management sector, and engaging decisionmakers post-exercise to communicate key issues and outcomes as well as potential approaches for mitigating consequences that were identified by participants. The second section is aimed toward the scientific community and data developers involved in the creation of extreme weather event scenarios. This section provides technical guidance and detailed descriptions of four types of data resources and five analytical approaches that can be used to create extreme weather event scenarios based on the design considerations highlighted in section one. The computational resources and expertise required varies substantially across the options presented and is a primary consideration. These requirements, in addition to considerations related to audience and application, may determine the novelty and detail of the event, the detail of weather forecast information that can be provided, and the spatial extent across which the event can reasonably be modeled. The importance of, and approaches for, delivering information in a form that is accessible to emergency management practitioners is also discussed.

Report↗

Assessing the risk of diploid grass carp Ctenopharyngodon idella in the certified triploid supply chain in Ohio

Non-native grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) have been stocked in the United States for vegetation control since the 1970s, and recent evidence suggests some natural reproduction in the Great Lakes basin. Despite all states and provinces bordering Lake Erie either banning grass carp or requiring imports of only sterile, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS)-certified triploids, the majority of grass carp captured and analyzed from Lake Erie are diploid, or reproductively viable. Potential sources of diploid grass carp include illegal importation, compromises in the USFWS-certified triploid shipments, migration from legal diploid states, or natural reproduction resulting from diploid stockings prior to the 1988 Ohio law requiring only certified triploids. The goal of this study was to explore the risk that diploid grass carp occur in the USFWS-certified triploid supply chain destined for Ohio. During 2015 and 2016, undercover Ohio Department of Natural Resources-Division of Wildlife law enforcement purchased 1200 grass carp from 16 distributors, and overnighted 80 dissected grass carp head and eyeball sample shipments (n = 15 fish per shipment) for ploidy analysis by flow cytometry. Standardized methods for both field and laboratory processing were established. No diploid grass carp were detected in these collections, indicating fidelity of the USFWS-certified triploid grass carp supply chain in Ohio. Thus, these shipments are not a likely source of diploid grass carp in Lake Erie. This study is the first large-scale evaluation of the potential for ecological risk from diploid grass carp occurrence in USFSW-certified shipments of triploids for national distribution.

Ohio↗

Age of the late Holocene Bonneville landslide and submerged forest of the Columbia River Gorge, Oregon and Washington, USA, by radiocarbon dating

The late Holocene Bonneville landslide, a 15.5 km 2 rockslide-debris avalanche, descended 1000 m from the north side of the Columbia River Gorge and dammed the Columbia River where it bisects the Cascade Range of Oregon and Washington, USA. The landslide, inundation, and overtopping created persistent geomorphic, ecologic, and cultural consequences to the river corridor, reported by Indigenous narratives and explorer accounts, as well as scientists and engineers. From new dendrochronology and radiocarbon dating of three trees killed by the landslide, one entrained and buried by the landslide and two killed by rising water in the impounded Columbia River upstream of the blockage, we find (1) the two drowned trees and the buried tree died the same year, and (2) the age of tree death, and hence the landslide (determined by combined results of nine radiocarbon analyses of samples from the three trees), falls within AD 1421–1455 (3σ confidence interval). This result provides temporal context for the tremendous physical, ecological, and cultural effects of the landslide, as well as possible triggering mechanisms. The age precludes the last Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake of AD 1700 as a landslide trigger, but not earlier subduction zone or local crustal earthquakes.

Oregon, Washington↗

Evaluating highly resolved paleoclimate records in the frequency domain for multidecadal-scale climate variability

[1] Do the chronological methods used in the construction of paleoclimate records influence the results of the frequency analysis applied to them? We explore this phenomenon using the Dongge Cave speleothem record (U-series chronology with variable time steps, Δt) and the El Malpais tree-ring index (cross-dating of ring-width series). Interpolation of the Dongge Cave record to a constant Δt resulted in the suppression of periodicities (<20 years) altering the red noise model used for significance testing. Frequency analysis of temporal subsets of the El Malpais tree-ring index revealed that concentrations of variance varied with the number of ring-width series. Frequency analyses of these records identified significant periodicities, some common to both (∼25 and ∼69 years). Cross-wavelet analysis, which examines periodicities in the time domain, revealed that coherency between these records occurs intermittently. We found the chronology methods can influence the ability of frequency analysis to detect periodicities and tests for coherency.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

Coastal impacts, adaptation, and vulnerabilities: a technical input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment

The coast has long provided communities with a multitude of benefits including an abundance of natural resources that sustain economies, societies, and ecosystems. Coasts provide natural harbors for commerce, trade, and transportation; beaches and shorelines that attract residents and tourists; and wetlands and estuaries that are critical for fisheries and water resources. Coastal ecosystems provide critical functions to cycle and move nutrients, store carbon, detoxify wastes, and purify air and water. These areas also mitigate floods and buffer against coastal storms that bring high winds and salt water inland and erode the shore. Coastal regions are critical in the development, transportation, and processing of oil and natural gas resources and, more recently, are being explored as a source of energy captured from wind and waves. The many benefits and opportunities provided in coastal areas have strengthened our economic reliance on coastal resources. Consequently, the high demands placed on the coastal environment will increase commensurately with human activity. Because 35 U.S. states, commonwealths, and territories have coastlines that border the oceans or Great Lakes, impacts to coastline systems will reverberate through social, economic, and natural systems across the U.S. Impacts on coastal systems are among the most costly and most certain consequences of a warming climate (Nicholls et al., 2007). The warming atmosphere is expected to accelerate sea-level rise as a result of the decline of glaciers and ice sheets and the thermal expansion of sea water. As mean sea level rises, coastal shorelines will retreat and low-lying areas will tend to be inundated more frequently, if not permanently, by the advancing sea. As atmospheric temperature increases and rainfall patterns change, soil moisture and runoff to the coast are likely to be altered. An increase in the intensity of climatic extremes such as storms and heat spells, coupled with other impacts of climate change and the effects of human development, could affect the sustainability of many existing coastal communities and natural resources. This report, one of a series of technical inputs for the third NCA conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program, examines the known effects and relationships of climate change variables on the coasts of the U.S. It describes the impacts on natural and human systems, including several major sectors of the U.S. economy, and the progress and challenges to planning and implementing adaptation options. Below we present the key findings from each chapter of the report, beginning with the following key findings from Chapter 1: Introduction and Context.

Book↗

Exploring mechanisms underlying sex-specific differences in mortality of Lake Michigan bloaters

Sex-specific differences in mortality rates have been observed among freshwater and marine fish taxa, and underlying mechanisms can include sex-specific differences in (1) age at maturity, (2) growth rate, or (3) activity or behavior during the spawning period. We used a long-term (1973–2009) Lake Michigan data set to evaluate whether there were sex-specific differences in catch per unit effort, mortality, age at maturity, and length at age in bloaters Coregonus hoyi . Because bloater population biomass varied 200-fold during the years analyzed, we divided the data into three periods: (1) 1973–1982 (low biomass), (2) 1983–1997 (high biomass), and (3) 1998–2009 (low biomass). Mortality was higher for males than for females in periods 2 and 3; the average instantaneous total mortality rate ( Z ) over these two periods was 0.71 for males and 0.57 for females. Length at age was slightly greater (2–6%) for females than for males in different age-classes (3–6 years) during each period. Age at maturity was earlier for males than for females in periods 1 and 2, but the mean difference was only 0.2–0.4 years. To test the hypothesis that somatic lipids declined more in males than in females during spawning (perhaps due to increased activity or reduced feeding), we estimated sex-specific percent somatic lipids for fish sampled in 2005–2006 and 2007–2008. During 2005–2006, somatic lipids declined from prespawning to postspawning for males but were unchanged for females. During 2007–2008, however, somatic lipids were unchanged for males, whereas they increased for females. We found that sex-specific differences in Z occurred in the Lake Michigan bloater population, but our hypotheses that sex-specific differences in maturity and growth could explain this pattern were generally unsupported. Our hypothesis that somatic lipids in males declined during spawning at a faster rate than in females will require additional research to clarify its importance.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗

Predicted aquatic exposure effects from a national urban stormwater study

A multi-agency study of 438 organic and 62 inorganic chemicals measured in urban stormwater during 50 total runoff events at 21 sites across the United States demonstrated that stormwater discharges can generate localized, aquatic exposures to extensive contaminant mixtures, including organics suspected to cause adverse aquatic-health effects. The aggregated risks to multiple aquatic trophic levels (fish, invertebrates, plants) of the stormwater mixture exposures, which were documented in the national study, were explored herein by calculating cumulative ratios of organic-contaminant in vitro exposure–activity cutoffs (∑ EAR ) and health-benchmark-weighted cumulative toxicity quotients (∑ TQ ). Both risk assessment approaches indicated substantial (moderate to high) risk for acute adverse effects to aquatic organisms across multiple trophic levels (fish, macroinvertebrates, non-vascular/vascular plants) at or near stormwater discharge points across the United States. The results are interpreted as potential orders of magnitude underestimates of actual aquatic risk in stormwater control wetlands or in the immediate vicinity of such discharges to surface-water receptors, because the 438 organic-compound analytical space assessed in this study is orders of magnitude less than the 350 000 parent compounds estimated to be in current commercial use globally and the incalculable chemical-space of potential metabolites and degradates.

Environmental Science: Water Research and Technolo↗